Last night's results: A jolly Jolly sinks Sink in FL-13, 49-47. Ex-Florida State Rep. Eric Eisnaugle won a primary for his old seat, LD-44 near Orlando. As of this writing we have no winner yet in the New Hampshire Executive Council race, but ex-State Sen. Joe Kenney (R) is up 51-49 on Grafton County Commissioner Mike Cryans (D). Oh, and in case you haven't heard, we're kinda good at polling.
CT-Gov: State Sen. Toni Boucher (R-Wilton) has dropped her long-shot bid for Governor, opting instead to seek re-election to the State Senate. 2010 nominee and primary front-runner Tom Foley (R) still faces three other Republicans: Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton, State Sen. John McKinney, and Shelton Mayor Mark Lauretti.
PA-Gov: Lebanon County Commissioner Jo Ellen Litz (D) failed to turn in enough signatures to qualify for the ballot, a fitting end to a campaign that might be best described as well-intentioned but downright comically pathetic.
IL-Gov: A team of unions has pulled the plug on an ad barrage against investor Bruce Rauner (R) a week ahead of the GOP primary, having failed to make more than a small dent in Rauner's large primary lead over State Sens. Bill Brady and Kirk Dillard.
RI-Gov: If you're looking for a Rhode Island gubernatorial candidate who is a competent manager and knows the value of a dollar, you may need to look a little farther: Clay Pell (D), grandson of a senator and trophy husband of figure skater Michelle Kwan, has admitted he "misplaced" Kwan's car...twice in the last three months. The first time, Pell forgot where he parked, and the second time, he had left the car parked in his driveway with the keys inside.
OH-Gov: Libertarian Charlie Earl, who was a former Republican State Rep. in the 1970s, has been knocked off the gubernatorial ballot on a technicality regarding identification of paid-signature gatherers. The Libertarian Party says they will appeal.
VI-Gov, VI-AL: Delegate Donna Christian-Christensen, who has represented this majority-black territory since 1996, is running for Governor, where she is expected to be the front-runner. Two Dems are already in the race to succeed her: Attorney Stacey Plaskett and ex-Terr. Sen. Emmett Hansen.
CA-45: Orange County Supervisor John Moorlach (R), expected to be one of the two major candidates for this open seat, unexpectedly dropped his bid. State Sen. Mimi Walters (R) is now expected to win without substantive opposition.
MI-3: Businessman Brian Ellis (R), attempting to get to the right of Paulist Rep. Justin Amash (R) on a more typical conservative platform, is hitting Amash for opposing an anti-abortion bill. Amash offers a typical Amashian first-principles explanation for his vote.
NJ-3: Ugh, not getting a good feeling about this. Burlington County's GOP machine is all in for carpetbagging self-funder Tom MacArthur, the former mayor of Randolph in Morris County. Ocean County's machine has signalled its tentative support for MacArthur, but Toms River Councilman Mo Hill is preparing for a challenge at the party's convention next week. Looming over this race is the specter of carpetbagging, less-than-electable 2013 Senate nominee and Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan, whose "off-the-line" (without machine backing) primary campaign leads by a mile in a new poll.
NY-1: In an unexpected endorsement, Rudy has given his backing to self-funding attorney George Demos (R). The choice puts Rudy on the same side as nemesis ex-Gov. George Pataki (R) - and opposite almost all the GOP establishment, who support State Sen. Lee Zeldin (R), the front-runner to take on Rep. Tim Bishop (D).
NY-11: Conservadem pastor Erick Salgado (D), fresh off a sixth-place showing in last year's NYC Mayor primary, is looking at a bid against Rep. Michael Grimm (R). While Salgado is unlikely to win the primary on his social-conservative platform, he could present a headache for the presumptive Dem nominee, Councilman Dominic Recchia.
NY-21: Macomb (pop. 906) councilman and former county party chair Stephen Burke (D), who seems to be something of a perennial candidate, has entered the race, citing the tenuous-at-best connection endorsed candidate Aaron Woolf (D-Brooklyn) has to the district.
State & Local:
DC-Mayor: Councilman David Catania (I) is preparing to announce a bid this week. If scandal-plagued incumbent Vincent Gray (D) prevails in the clown-car April 1 primary, the former Republican Cataina could present the best chance yet for a non-Democrat to take the top spot in the 90% Democratic city.
WA-SD-30: You may remember that social conservative/fiscal liberal ex-State Rep. Mark Miloscia had switched parties from D to R to run for the State Senate. Well, his path in this D+8 seat has just become significantly easier, as State Sen. Tracy Eide, his prospective opponent, will not run again. Democrats will likely look to first-term State Rep. Roger Freeman, who replaced Miloscia in 2012, as their most likely replacement.
Today's FL-13 result, in which Republican David Jolly topped Democrat Alex Sink by 2% in a closely-watched congressional race, was surprising to some observers. The readers of the blog Red Racing Horses were not among them, as they were given access to a survey last week that exactly predicted Jolly's 2% margin of victory. In addition to predicting Jolly's performance, the RRH survey accurately showed that Jolly would lose the early votes by a margin of 48-46, but make up for that in the election-day count.
This strikingly accurate survey was performed by a group of amateurs, with no connections to any database or national organization and led by a cancer biologist. Using no data-anlysis tools more sophisticated than a computer spreadsheet, RRH performed the survey at a cost of under a third of what many pollsters charge using crowdsourced donations from RRH's readers. This poll is RRH's third effort of this type, following up successful efforts in Louisiana and South Carolina.
If you would like to see more surveys of this type, please consider making a donation at the paypal link at right. If you have questions or comments about our polling, please e-mail us at firstname.lastname@example.org.
957: As New Hampshire counts the stone tablets and has horsemen ride the results to the shire town, please feel free to keep posting about the events in New Hampshire. Good night everyone.
852: It is easier to get election results from eastern Canada when the blackout is in effect than New Hampshire but it appears the Democrats have flipped the First Executive Council district.
820: No news out of New Hampshire.
756: In case you forgot, RRH is always looking for donations to fund our polling efforts. As advertising covers our operating expenses with a little left over for polling, we are reliant on your donations. If you would like to see us poll a race in the near future, please post your suggestions and please consider donating. Thanks.
742: All the precincts have reported. The result stands at:
Jolly (REP) 48.43% 88,294
Alex Sink (DEM) 46.56% 84,877
Lucas Overby (LPF) 4.83% 8,799
738: One precinct is left and Jolly maintains a 3200 vote lead. Barring one of those 99% Obama precincts from Philly showing up in Florida, Jolly has this.
733: With 4 precincts outstanding, Jolly gets the checkmark from RRH.
727: With 13 precincts outstanding, Jolly has opened up a 3200 vote lead.
725: With 92 percent in, Jolly is up by roughly 2700 votes. Getting close to calling it.
723: With almost 90 percent in, Jolly has a 2500 vote lead. Can we call it for him?
719: From the comments:
"Encouragingly for Sink, the survey shows that those that have already cast their ballots (approximately half the electorate) have done so for Sink by a margin of 48-46."
So, you all are dumping your careers and getting into the polling business this week, or next?
by: pstchrisp @ Tue Mar 11, 2014 at 19:15:20 PM EDT
717: Jolly can be jolly as he has taken a 250 vote lead with a little over half of the precincts reporting.
715: With less than half in, Sink's lead is down to 499 votes.
711: Sink maintains a 48 to 46 percent lead, but Jolly has narrowed his deficit to roughly 2700 votes with 10 percent of precincts reporting.
706: Massive vote dump of early votes with Sink opening a 48 to 46 percent lead. (roughly 3000 raw votes separate them at this point).
655: Polls will be closing shortly in Pinellas County for the FL-13 Special Election.
The seventh special election of the 113th Congress will replace the late Bill Young as Representative for FL-13. Young died in November after serving in Congress for over 40 years representing various Tampa Bay area districts including the 13th during his final term. The 13th District is located in central Pinellas County, including part of St. Petersburg, and has a PVI score of R+1.
In the race to replace Young, three candidates will appear on the ballot: Democrat Alex Sink, former CFO of Florida and 2010 Democratic gubernatorial candidate, was initially seen as the front-runner, benefiting from a cleared primary, ample fundraising, and strong prior name recognition from her statewide runs. Republican David Jolly, an attorney, lobbyist and former general counsel to the late Congressman Young, was not the party's first choice and had to overcome a contested and at times contentious primary. However, Jolly has closed the gap over the course of the campaign and all signs now point to a very close race. A third wheel in the race is Libertarian Lucas Overby, a commercial diver (naturally along the Gulf Coast) and activist who is also on the ballot.
In spite of the built in advantages Sink came into the race with, recent polling of the race has shown the contest as very tight. RRH/PMI polled the race in late February and found Jolly leading Sink 46% to 44%. Other pollsters have found similar results with the race remaining in the margin of error.
A key metric being watched closely has been the absentee ballots being returned; a majority of the electorate is expected to vote by mail. If you want to see how many ballots have been returned to date, please click on this PDF link here. If past is prologue, we could have a very good idea of who will win when those tallies are released exactly at 7:00 tonight.
Today is also the general election for NH-EC-1, a seat on the uniquely powerful New Hampshire Executive Council, a five-member board that supervises the budget and approves gubernatorial appointments. The seat, covering the northern half of the state, was vacated by the death of longtime councilor Ray Burton (R) last year and is D+6 presidentially (albeit the definition of a Historically Republican area.) Today's general election features Republican ex-State Sen. and 2008 gubernatorial nominee Joe Kenney and Democratic Grafton County commissioner Mike Cryans. The race hasn't gotten much media attention, and will likely hinge on whoever can turnout the most voters. Kenney probably has a slight edge however in that the election coincides with a number of town meetings in the smaller (and more Republican) cities/townships, which should help R turnout. Democrats currently hold a 3-1 edge on the council so today's election won't determine party control of the body.
One more note from Florida; there is a GOP Primary in FL-LD-44, covering the Orlando suburbs just north of Disney World. Ex-State Rep. Eric Eisnagule is heavily favored to win back the seat he stepped down from after being double-bunked with another GOP incumbent.
Reminder: Our preview of the FL-13 special election will go live later today. Come back to read the preview at 3p Eastern, and then at 7 follow our live blog of the election.
Sanders: Bernie for President? The socialist Senator himself weighs in:
If the question is, am I actively right now organizing and raising money and so forth for a campaign for president, I am not doing that. On the other hand, am I talking to people around the country? Yes, I am. Will I be doing some traveling around the country? Yes, I will be.
Georgia: It's a PPP (D) poll for a private liberal client, so apply the usual caveats. However, a poll of the GOP primary has Rep. Paul Broun in charge with 27%, followed by Rep. Phil Gingrey with 14%, Rep. Jack Kingston at 13%, businessman David Perdue at 12% and Secretary of State Karen Handel at 9%. General election numbers show Democratic candidate Michele Nunn leading most Republican challengers by single digits, but the challenge in Georgia for a Democrat is cracking north of 48% to win a general election, not boasting a plurality with double-digit undecideds.
North Carolina: Greg Brannon (R) has not caught a break in the media lately, which probably means the oppo team of his primary opponent, state House Speaker Thom Tillis, is doing pretty well at their jobs. Brannon urged readers of a blog he previously contributed to to vote third party in 2012 rather than support Mitt Romney. Brannon, with a handful of prominent endorsements and the largest warchest of non-Tillis candidates in the primary, is seen as the most likely runoff opponent for Tillis if the speaker does not win the primary outright with at least 40% of the vote.
Arkansas: A poll by HAI in Arkansas is a little confusing, asking party affiliation before the horse race and then offering several permutations of that horse race (first Pryor vs. a generic Republican, then a five candidate field, and finally Cotton vs. Pryor). In the five-way, Rep. Tom Cotton (R) leads Senator Mark Pryor (D) 40%-39%, while one-on-one Cotton leads Pryor 50%-43%.
Alaska: Senator Mark Begich (D) has launched an ad buy targeting the Koch brothers. I wonder if Democrats run these ads because they poll-tested well or to appease their own donor base? Probably a little of both.
FL-13: Last PPP poll in this seat for the League of Conservation Voters. Alex Sink (D) leads David Jolly (R) 48%-45%, with Libertarian Lucas Overby taking a surprising 6%.
FL-02: A Graham internal from Anzalone Liszt finds Rep. Steve Southerland (R) leading Democrat Gwen Graham 42%-40%.
OK-05: Two candidates are in for Rep. James Lankford's (R) seat, which is open after the US Representative elected to run for US Senate. They are state Rep. Mike Turner of Edmund and former Bridenstine aide and Southern Baptist minister Harvey Sparks.
NY-06/NY-07: Someone forgot to tell former city controller John Liu that he lost the mayoral election last November. He is still acting like a candidate, attending events with volunteer staff from his last campaign. While Liu met with supporters about a potential primary challenge to Rep. Grace Meng in the 6th, a run against Rep. Nydia Velasquez in the 7th looks like a more likely possiblility.
TX-36: Never change, Steve Stockman. The congressman was found at a random CPAC party drinking with Young Republicans in a bath tub. I can personally confirm that after Stockman fled this party, he continued partying elsewhere.
MS-04: Predictably, Republican office-holders are rallying around Rep. Steven Palazzo in his primary with former Rep. Gene Taylor, who lost the seat as a Democrat to Palazzo in 2010.
Oregon: Former ORGOP Chairman Allen Alley will not run for Governor in 2014.
MN-SoS: Businessman Dennis Nguyen (R) has withdrawn from the race for Secretary of State after the disclosure that he attended a strip club after he announced his campaign with state Senator Dave Senjem. The move briefly left Republicans without a candidate for the open seat. However, former state Senator John Howe of Red Wing is now in the race. Former state Senator Ted Daley of Eagan is strongly considering a run (he previously served as Scott Honour's gubernatorial campaign treasurer), as is Kent Kaiser, a former aide to then-SoS Mary Kiffmeyer.
Youth Vote: A cool look at the youth vote from The Monkey Cage.
Among self-reported voters who were 18 years old in 2012, Mitt Romney, not Obama, won the majority: 57 percent. Romney also won 59 percent among 19-year-olds, and 54 percent among 20-year-olds. These youngest voters of 2012 had entered the electorate in 2010-2012, when Obama’s popularity was much lower than the high point of his inauguration.
IA-GOP: Governor Terry Branstad's allies have won their war with the Paulites in the state party, where state party Chairman AJ Spiker is resigning his post to advise Rand Paul's PAC. Branstad's allies had been cleaning up in delegate battles this cycle.
RNC: The RNC is looking to identify voters who were delivered plan cancellations due to Obamacare as a bloc of voters worth targeting for mobilization and persuasion efforts. Sounds cool, but there may be legal and logistical barriers to gathering that information.
AK-AL: Democrats have a novice candidate to challenge Don Young in 29-year-old Forrest Dunbar (D), who has a pretty interesting biography. Still, Don Young (R) is such an institution in the state that despite his shameless porking he's safe barring DG/LB.
AZ-7: Apparently some local reporters are surprised that Phoenix Hispanics don't want to be represented in Congress by a carpet-bagging White Progressive in Kristen Sinema (D), and prefer a local Hispanic Democrat instead for the Hispanic-majority seat.
CA-49: Darrell Issa (R) has said that while he plan on running for re-election this year, he might retire sooner rather than later. Issa's Northern-San-Deigo-County seat should be an easy hold for the Republicans, even in a presidential year, though it did narrowly vote for Obama in 2008 before swinging back to a ~5 point Romney win in 2012.
HI-1: Former representative Charles Djou, who won a 3-way special election in 2010 in this strongly D seat before losing it in the 2010 general elections, is rumored to be considering another run. Djou did surprisingly well in 2012 against a sitting D incumbent, and could potentially win this open seat if all the pieces fall into place. Djou was also rumored to be looking at running for the Senate seat currently held by Brian Schtaz.
LA-6: Convicted Felon and former Governor (no, its not Illinois, surprisingly) Edwin Edwards (D) is running in this overwhelmingly Republican district covering the white parts of Baton Rouge and the territory inbetween it and New Orleans. Edwards, who was easily the most nakedly corrupt governor in recent history, has a decent shot at making a runoff spot here based on name recognition and the large pool of Republican candidates, but would probably lose to any candidate who is not an active member of the KKK.
MI-12: Rebekah Warren (D), the Bold Progressive State Senator from Ann Arbor, is not running for this open seat. Her decision means Debbie Dingell (D), wife of the current congressman, will almost certainly keep this Downriver/Ann Arbor district in Dingell family hands. At this point, the Dingells should probably consider listing the district as a family possession on their tax returns, as its rumored Debbie is only keeping the seat until her son wants it.
PA-13: Josh Shapiro (D) has endorsed Marjorie Margolies (D) for this Philadelphia & Suburbs district. Shapiro's endorsement helps give Margolies some Bold-Progressive credentials in the chaotic, multi-way primary for this district.
WA-10: Pierce County Councilwoman Joyce McDonald (R) is running for this Olympia-based seat. McDonald, who is a former 5-term state legislator, is unlikely to prevail in this D+mid single digits seat against incumbent Dennis Heck (D).
MT-Sen: Former Lt. Gov. John Bohlinger (R->D), who had previously stated that he was going to drop his Senate bid in favor of appointed Senator John Walsh (D), has officially filed to run. Walsh has most of the D establishment behind him and is probably the favorite in a primary, but Bohlinger is unlikely to be a pushover and will force a potentially nasty primary battle by running against the sort of insider politics that got Walsh the seat (Baucus, the previous incumbent, was appointed ambassador to China to open the seat up for a Walsh appointment to). Republican Steve Daines (R), the likely R candidate for this Senate Seat, is the obvious benefactor here.
OK-Sen-Coburn: T.W. Shannon (R), the current Speaker of the State House of Representatives, is getting some significant outside support in his primary bid against current OK-5 Congressman James Lankford (R), in the form of TV ads and mailers. Shannon, who is closer to the Tea party than Lankford has been as a congressman, is probably going to try to base his campagin off of the Cruz or Rubio model as the outsider-candidate-who-is-already-a-major-player-in-the-state. The primary winner is most likely going to sail into the Senate Seat in overwhelmingly Republican Oklahoma.
FL-Gov: Charlie Crist (R->I->D) is coming around to being a Democrat more and more, and has now given a full-fleged endorsement of Obamacare amoung other issues. While Crist does need to shore up his left flank, he's probably going a bit too far, as signing onto Obamacare now is sort of like annoucing your support for the Iraq war in December 2005. He is currently leading in the polls, but that's mostly due to incumbent Governor Rick Scott's unpopularity.
PA-Gov: The SWPA Democratic establishment has officially backed buisnessman Tom Wolf in the D primary for Governor. Allegheny County Executive Rich Fitzgerald, Pittsburgh Mayor Bill Peduto, and Congressman Mike Doyle (all D), had a public appearance with Wolf on Saturday and announced their support for his bid, along with a host of other local Democratic officials. This is a huge get for Wolf, as the Union-based SWPA Democrats bring a solid ground game that his big-money ad campaign needed, and help to give the wealthy Wolf working-class credentials in the primary.
VT-GOV: Emily Peyton has annouced a run as a Republican for governor. However, Peyton's ideology is unusual and seems to be a form of Libertarian Environmentalist Populism and she has said she would govern as a member of the "De Udder" party, a local "party" in the loosest sense of the word. She favors full legalisation of marijuana, abolishment of the IRS and property taxes, state purchase of farming equipment for cooperative use by Vermont farmers for Hemp cultivation, internet-based direct Democracy, and "A full integration of indigenous environmental wisdom in policy reformation".
State & Local:
WATN: Scott Mcinnis, last seen losing the CO-GOP primary for governor in 2010, is running for Mesa county comissioner.
CA-Dem Convention: The CA Democrats have endorsed Marijuana legalization, and a state-wide fracking ban at their state party convention over the weekend. Governor Jerry Brown (D) however, seemed much less enthusiastic about the propositions, and is probably the entire reason both ideas are not already CA law.
NH-EC-1: A special election for this executive council seat covering most of Northern New Hampshire (the Little Vermont part) will be held tomorrow night. Republican Joe Kenney and Democrat Mike Cryans will be vying for this important state office vacated by the death of 35-year incumbent Ray Burton (R).
NJ-Corruption: Former Trenton Mayor Tony Mack (D), who was convicted of multiple counts of corruption earlier this year, is asking for a retrial. His argument is that he could not have possibly have given his full attention to the bribe he was paid as part of a sting operation, because . . . he might have been on the phone at the time.
NY-Corruption: State Assemblyman William F. Boyland (D) was convicted of bribery and other felonies. In an amusing bit of irony, Boyland was charged with accepting bribes to pay legal fees for his previous corruption case (which he won), showing once again how casually New York Politicians take corruption.
TX-Comptroller: Harvey Hilderbran (R), the 2nd-place finisher in the GOP primary for this office, has conceded to first-place finisher Glenn Hegar (who won very close to 50% of the vote in the primary last tuesday).
MI-Sen: After a campaign that has seen him go from strong favorite(according to some) to a tossup race, Rep. Gary Peters (D) is changing campaign managers. Julie Petrick, who managed his successful 2008 campaign for the House, is said to be leaving the campaign for "personal reasons" in favor of Paul Tencher, who ran the successful 2012 campaign of Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) of Indiana. However, considering some of the campaign's recent missteps, including publicly criticizing a cancer patient who appeared in an anti-Obamacare ad, the change should not be a surprise.
NC-Sen: Sen. Mike Lee (R) of Utah is joining fellow Sen. Rand Paul and endorsing Greg Brannon in the Senate primary. The move is somewhat curious for its timing as Brannon has been the subject of negative publicity recently concerning a judgment against him in a civil suit that will force him to pay more than $250,000 to settle the case.
SC-Sen(Scott): Rick Wade has become the 2nd Democrat this week to drop a candidacy for a major office, dropping his campaign against Sen. Tim Scott (R). Although Wade wasn't expected to pose much of a threat to Scott, he was the likely Democratic nominee-a spot which will now go to Richland County Councilwoman Joyce Dickerson unless another candidate files for the seat.
AZ-7/AZ-9: AZ-9 Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D), who considered running in the AZ-7 seat being vacated by Rep. Ed Pastor (D), will continue running for re-election in her current district. Also, former Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon has announced he will not run for the AZ-7 seat. He also went on to say that he would not run again for mayor either.
CO-4: State Rep. Jerry Sonnenberg (R) of Sterling is not running for the seat being left open by Rep. Cory Gardner (R), who is running for US Senate. He will instead continue seeking the state Senate seat being left open by Sen. Greg Brophy (R) of Wray, who is running for governor.
LA-6: One of the latest forming races in the country is now starting to get crowded. Republican businessman Craig McCulloch of Baker is joining the race. McCulloch, who is a political newcomer, joins a field of 4 other Republicans and 1 Democrat in the all-party "top 2" primary.
TN-9: Rep. Steve Cohen (D) is once again being challenged in the Democratic primary by a black candidate, this time attorney Ricky Wilkins. Cohen, who is white, has succeeded in holding this majority black seat and has not been seriously challenged by previous black candidates. Some Democratic strategists think this race could be different however as Wilkins does have self-funding ability and Cohen has had some embarrassing comments on Twitter recently.
RI-Gov: Former gubernatorial candidate Myrth York is endorsing the campaign for governor of State Treasurer Gina Raimondo over Providence Mayor Angel Tavares. The move by York, who lost 3 consecutive gubernatorial elections as the Democratic nominee in 1994, 1998 and 2002 is somewhat surprising as York chaired the campaign of Tavares for Providence Mayor in 2010 and co-chaired his transition team.
SC-LG: Mike Campbell, son of the late former Gov. Carroll Campbell (R) is said to be heavily leaning toward a run for Lieutenant Governor. Campbell ran for the office in 2006 as well, losing to Andre Bauer in a runoff. He would face Charleston developer Pat McKinney in the Republican primary. State Rep. Bakari Sellers is in for the Democrats. This is the last election in which the LG in South Carolina will be elected separately-beginning in 2018, gubernatorial candidates will select their own LG running mate.
UT-AG: The Utah Senate has given preliminary approval to a bill that would place a proposal on the November ballot to make Utah's Attorney General an appointed, rather than elected position. The proposal would give the governor the power to select a person from 5 people chosen by a bipartisan commission and that person would serve one 6 year term. The proposal would make Utah one of only 8 states that appoint their AGs.
AR-Sen: His Noble Excellency, Senator Marcus, second Baron Pryor, son of Senator David, first Baron Pryor, hath spoken regarding that rebellious serf, Thomas of Cotton:
And I think that's part of that sense of entitlement that he gives off is that, almost like, I served my country, let me into the Senate.
To think - a mere commoner takes a tour in the King's cavalry, and then he suddenly thinks he's entitled to sit in the House of Lords! A man of stock as undistinguished as he, with not a drop of noble blood, is not fit to rule among dogs, let alone men. So kudos to you, Lord Marcus, for upholding the divine order of our feudal system. (Alright, that concludes the over-the-top dramatic sarcasm portion of today's roundup, but I couldn't resist with that story.)
NH-Sen: As expected, quirky ex-Sen. Bob Smith (R) kicked off his comeback bid for the seat he lost to Sununu in a 2002 primary and is now held by Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D). Smith is the biggest name in the current field, but New Hampshire Republicans seem to be eager to help promote Scott Brown's book tour for a while longer.
IA-Sen: State Sen. Joni Ernst (R), who was once considered the primary front-runner but has slipped behind energy executive Mark Jacobs, scored an endorsement from Mitt Romney.
SC-Sen-G: Democrats, having failed to come up with an alternative to their lone candidate for this seat, felon Jay Stamper, are considering an attempt to recruit an independent candidate to run if Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) loses his primary. Whoever runs would face a major uphill battle to collect 10K signatures in the month between the primary and the July 15 deadline.
NJ-Sen, NJ-3: Veteran Chris Isola, who has been running a little-noticed campaign for NJ-3, is being encouraged by the local machine to drop his bid and jump into the crowded Senate primary to be the sacrificial lamb against Booker. The two most prominent names in the Senate race are 1978 nominee Jeff Bell and professor/2008 candidate Murray Sabrin.
NY-Gov: To nobody's surprise, Westchester CE Rob Astorino (R) is running for Governor. Astorino, the NYGOP's brightest rising star, stands no chance of beating Cuomo, but a credible performance could make him a serious contender for a more winnable race when Cuomo leaves, and/or help GOP downballot candidates this year.
KY-Gov '15: Ex-Louisville councilman Hal Heiner (R) is the first candidate running for Governor in this race, with ex-Lexington councilwoman and 2011 Treasurer nominee KC Crosbie as his LG running mate. Heiner, who can self-fund, likely will enter an urban-vs-rural primary showdown with Agriculture Commissioner James Comer (R), who is expected to run.
State & Local:
CA-Cont: Fresno Mayor Ashley Swearengin (R) has filed to run for the (suprisingly powerful) office of State Controller, giving the CAGOP perhaps its best statewide recruit this year. Of course, Swearengin's chances are slim to nil, but it's nice to have credible candidates. She will face Board of Equalization member Betty Yee (D) and State House Speaker John Perez (D) in the top-two primary.
SC-Supt: State Rep. Mike Anthony (D-Union) has abruptly dropped his campaign for the open Superintendent slot, leaving SC Dems more-or-less up the creek in the only race besides Governor they were seriously contesting.
ICYMI, yesterday was the Texas Primary. Candidates who didn't top 50% are now set to head to a runoff on May 27th, the highest profile of which is the Republican Lt.-Gov nomination.
CA-Sen: A Source close to Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg is denying that she's planning on challenging Barbra Boxer (D) for the California Senate Seat up in 2016 (EDIT: Not the State Senate Seat). Sandberg probably wouldn't have made top 2 with Boxer (The CAGOP isn't dead yet) and I doubt she would have been a real threat, as Boxer doesn't really have any space to her left and Sandberg is pretty Liberal herself (though in the Silicon Valley mold rather than the San Francisco one).
MI-Sen: If you're picking a fight with a cancer patient over her medical care, you're doing something wrong. After Gary Peters (D), the D candidate for this open seat, attacked the subject of an AFP ad blasting Obamacare for canceling her healthcare plan, AFP is striking back with another ad. At this point Peters is mostly just giving free press to a pretty well put together ad.
MN-Sen: Citizens United has released a poll for the GOP nomination, and by far the front-runner is "Undecided" with Julianne Ortman leading the pack of actual candidates with 16%. Also, by a 62-32 margin MN GOP voters want a "Conservative" candidate as opposed to a "Establishment" one.
NE-Sen: Mike Lee (R-Sen-UT) has endorsed Ben Sasse (R) for this open seat. Sasse's got a handful a high-profile endorsements for this seat, and is running neck-and-neck with former state treasurer Shane Osburn.
FL-9: Alan Grayson's (D) wife has accused the congressman of shoving her during a domestic dispute, and a judge has issued a temporary protective injunction against the Orlando Congressman. Grayson's camp is furiously denying the charges, and claims that they "are absolutely false, completely unfounded, and clearly designed to vilify and harm Congressman Grayson". This D+high single digits (EDIT: Previously put the old CPVI) seat might be out of reach for the GOP, but Grayson isn't exactly making it hard to run against him.
FL-13: An amazing 191 ads per day are currently running in this Pinellas-county district ahead of its special election next week. The majority of them are from outside groups rather than the candidate's official campagins. Its times like this that make me glad I live in an entirely uncompetitive area, as I imagine FL-13 residents are already sick to death of the race.
FL-19: Former Congressman Connie Mack (R) is endorsing buisnessman Curt Clawson (R) for the April 22nd special election for this SW Florida seat. Mack cited Clawson's support for the "Penny Plan" to reduce the federal budget by 1% a year, as a reason for his endorsement. FL-St-Sen Majority Leader Lizbeth Benacquisto (R) is still likely the frontrunner for this seat.
NY-4: Kevan Abrahams (D) is rumored to be considering running for this open Long Island Seat. Abrahams is the county legislative minority leader, and is a big underdog to Nassau DA Kathleen Rice (who has all the major endorsements already), who is a heavy favorite to win this seat and therefore open up the far more valuable DA office for the Nassau R Machine, who don't appear to be seriously contesting the house seat.
CA-St-Sen: Senators Calderon and Wright (both D) are both taking a "Leave of Absence" to deal with their felony charges. This was after State Senate Leader Steinberg (D) told them both that they would either take the leave or be expelled from the chamber. This technically puts the Democrat's real votes at 26/40, which is still a 2/3rds majority of sitting Senators (Republicans only have 11 right now)
CT-Gov: A new Quinnipac poll is out, and incumbent Dan Malloy (D) has worked his way back to a tie with 2010 candidate Tom Foley. Malloy also posts 48-45 approval rating, which is the more troubling number, as Connecticut generally elects Democrats it likes over Republican it likes, and is a sign that Malloy has turned around his previously poor image.
LA-Gov-2015: Former D Party Chair and Buisnessman Jim Bernhard is telling people he's looking to run for governor next year. Bernhard, who has deep pockets, is an interesting possibliy since the current LA-D bench starts and ends Mitch and Mary Landrieu.
NY-Gov: Rob Astorino (R) has tweeted that he's going to announce his decision on whether or not run today. Astorino would be a heavy underdog against incumbent Andrew Cuomo, though he is the Republican's best nominee for the office.
Elections have consequences -- from the race for President to the race for one seat on a city council. The political economist Max Weber wrote that the state possesses a monopoly on the legitimate use of force. But in the United States, the state is divided into myriad federal, state, and local entities. And the elections to fill those entities are the products of the fascinating interactions between campaigns, party affiliations, voter turnout, and the media spotlight. Red Racing Horses analyzes those elections -- from a Republican-leaning perspective -- to keep a close eye on the process of electing officials, and to offer our perspective on the election-related issues of the day. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog.
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