AK-Sen: The two sides in this race are wasting no time in gearing up the ad wars after the primary. Crossroads GPS has launched a $1.25 million ad blitz attacking Sen. Mark Begich (D), while a pro-Begich super PAC is spending $490,000 on an ad attacking Republican nominee Dan Sullivan's lack of Alaska background and his support of a mine project.
IA-Sen: Rep. Bruce Braley (D) is getting some celebrity support for his Senate campaign-Eagles guitarist Joe Walsh. Walsh sent out a fundraising email for the campaign where he is raffling off a pair of VIP tickets to an upcoming concert by the band.
NC-Sen: Sen. Rand Paul (R) is coming to NC to raise money for the state Republican Party and campaign for Thom Tillis (R). As Paul endorsed Tillis primary foe Greg Brannon, the move is designed to show establishment Republicans that he can be a team player.
SD-Sen: Rick Weiland (D) faces long odds to become the state's next Senator, and apparently even he knows it. In a Wednesday debate he addressed former Gov. Mike Rounds (R) as "Senator-or soon to be". He quickly noted the gaffe and then addressed Rounds as "soon to want to be Sen. Mike Rounds".
LA-5: The stage is almost set for this primary. 5 candidates filed for the office Wednesday and Thursday, and Rep. Vance McAllister (R) will file today. Already filing are Ralph Abraham (R) a doctor from Mangham, Harris Brown (R) a businessman from Monroe, Zach Dasher (R), nephew of "Duck Dynasty" patriarch Phil Robertson, Monroe Mayor Jamie Mayo (D) and former Grant Parish DA Ed Tarpley (R).
HI-Gov: As the primary is now over, attention is now focused on the upcoming 3-way race between state Sen. David Ige (D), former LG James "Duke" Aiona (R) and former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann (I). Hannemann only polled at 15% in a recent poll, but some analysts think he could end up pulling higher than that, as much as 30%. The race is being compared to the last 3-way race in 1994, where Ben Cayetano (D) prevailed with just 37% with former Honolulu Mayor Frank Fasi (I) in 2nd and ex-Rep. Patricia Saiki (R) in 3rd. Fasi was a Republican and surely took votes from Saiki in that race; as a Democrat Hannemann seems likely to take more votes from Ige.
Pres.2016: The Hill has a list of 65 prominent people who might run for president in 2016; 23 Democrats and 42 Republicans are on the list. The expected names are on the list, and a number of longshot names such as ex-candidates Al Gore, Howard Dean and John Kerry on the Democratic side and former VP nominee Sarah Palin on the Republican side are on the list too, as well as about every senator, governor or congressman who has even the slightest chance of running.
AR-LG: If two state senators have their way, this will be the last year Arkansas will elect a Lieutenant Governor. Both Democrat John Burkhalter and Rep. Tim Griffin (R), who are running for the office this year, oppose the proposal. One part of the proposal that is drawing opposition is designating the Attorney General next in line of succession, instead of other states without an LG that designate the Secretary of State or Senate President as next in line. If an informal poll of legislators from Fort Smith and NW Arkansas is any indication, the proposal faces long odds anyway.
NV-AG: Republican nominee Adam Laxalt gave himself glowing reviews as an attorney, but a performance review of his work referred to it as "sloppy" and called him a "train wreck" and said he "doesn't even have the basic skill set". This obviously won't help in a race in which he was probably an underdog anyway.
(Great work here! Enjoy in place of our normal afternoon post. - promoted by BostonPatriot)
Alaska held its primaries yesterday. Statewide, former appointed state AG and state natural resources commissioner Dan Sullivan beat 2010 Republican nominee Joe Miller by 8 points, 40%-32%. Current Lt. Governor Mead Treadwell ended up in third with just under 25%. While the election-day precinct vote is unofficial but pretty much final, absentees and some early votes have not been counted. This could slightly change the margins but will not impact the ultimate victor.
A precinct-level analysis of the election results shows that the state wasn't uniform in its voting patterns. In general, Miller won exurban areas like the Mat-Su Valley near Anchorage. Sullivan was strongest in urban areas, especially Anchorage and Juneau. However, Treadwell did take some Anchorage precincts as well as some sparsely populated rural precincts in Southwest Alaska. Maps and more analysis are below the fold
FL-Redistricting: The plantiffs in this case (the LWV and the Democrats) are trying to get the legislature’s quick-fix plan rejected by the courts and to get a completely new set of maps. Florida’s Secretary of State however said that such a move would require postponing the fall elections a few months at least (it takes time to collect filing and run the primary and general elections after all), which would almost certainly kick off a major constitutional law case, and probably require seating no representatives from Florida between January and mid-March.
MT-Sen: It has come to light that MT-Sen replacement D nominee Amanda Curtis is more than a little fond of the historical American far left. Thorough searches through her social media history have uncovered a number of posts Ms. Curtis would probably not like to be made public, including quoting a 19th-century union leader calling for “sterner measures” than the democratic process to address wealth disparity. While not a scandal in itself, there’s pretty much no way Steve Daines runs out of material to hit Curtis with over the rest of the campaign, including stuff like changing her Facebook profile pic to a former chair of the US Communist party.
IL-Gov: Pat Quinn might wind up being a bigger drag on Illinois Democrats than Obama. The embattled Illinois Governor has posted terrible poll numbers lately, especially for a state as blue as Illinois, and his campaign is dreary and unenthusiastic compared to his opponent, Bruce Rauner. This could be a deciding factor in a handful of key Illinois House races, where disillusionment with Quinn could affect D turnout, especially in Downstate where Quinn is even less popular than he is statewide.
OH-Gov: We can add “hypocrite” to the growing list of Ed Fitzgerald’s problems in his run for governor. It turns out his office was punishing employees for not holding valid driver’s licenses, something he himself did not have for 10 years. Hypocrisy is always a big killer when it comes to political scandals, and it looks like Fitzgerald’s fledgling campaign is in for yet another round of bad media.
National Polling: This is an interesting article about how tracking polls can show movement without any real change in the voting preferences of the electorate (which is usually rigid and inflexibile). Simply put, the reason candidates go up when their side has positive media attention isn't because undecided voters are moving towards them, but because their supporters become more likely to respond to polls.
Map-Moving: This is a neat map showing what % of each state’s population was born in-state, and where the major population movements are occurring.
Brazilian Obama: A candidate in Brazil’s upcoming October elections is running under the name “Barack Obama”. His real name is Claudio Henrique dos Anjos, but Brazilian law lets him run under basically any nickname he wants. Naturally, he’s a member of Brazil’s left-wing party.
NY-St-Sen: Is anyone really surprised? Indicted State Senator Malcolm Smith was just endorsed by DC 37, a big public sector union, for his primary election. Stuff like “indictment for bribery” doesn’t even raise an eyebrow in NYC anymore.
GA-Sen: A Survey USA poll has David Perdue (R) with a solid 50-41 lead on Michelle Nunn (D).
KS-Sen: PPP shows Sen. Pat Roberts (R) with a 32-25 lead on Chad Taylor (D) with Greg Orman (I) close behind at 23. In a 2-way Roberts-Taylor race, Roberts leads 43-39, but he would trail Oman in a 2-way race 43-33.
MT-Sen: Rasmussen has the first poll out of this race after Democrats selected State Rep. Amanda Curtis as their nomineee. Rep. Steve Daines (R) leads Curtis 55-35.
NM-Sen: An Albuquerque Journal poll shows Sen. Tom Udall leading Allen Weh (R) 53-35.
NC-Sen: PPP has Sen. Kay Hagan (D) with a 42-38 lead on Thom Tillis (R) with Libertarian Sean Haugh at 8%. In a 2-way race, Hagan leads Tillis 43-42.
More NC-Sen: A Suffolk University poll shows Hagan with a 45-43 lead on Tillis with Haugh at 5%.
SD-Sen: In a poll taken for the Mike Rounds (R) campaign, Rounds leads Rick Weiland (D) 49-24 with former Sen. Larry Pressler at 15.
FL-Gov: Gov. Rick Scott (R) leads Charlie Crist (D) 44-41 in a Survey USA poll taken for Tampa TV station WFLA.
GA-Gov: Survey USA has Gov. Nathan Deal (R) leading Jason Carter (D) 48-39.
KS-Gov: PPP shows Paul Davis (D) with a narrow 39-37 lead on Gov. Sam Brownback (R). Libertarian Keen Umbehr has 9% in that poll, and a poll of a 2-way race between Davis and Brownback shows the Libertarian taking more votes from Davis as Davis would lead 44-39 in a 2-way race.
MA-Gov: Republican Charlie Baker could benefit from support from Democrats who support Treasurer Stave Grossman according to a Boston Globe poll. Grossman Democrats prefer Baker over likely Democratic nominee Martha Coakley by a 44-32 margin.
MN-Gov: Gov. Mark Dayton (D) leads Jeff Johnson (R) 49-41 in a Rasmussen poll.
NH-Gov: An RGA poll shows Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) with only a 42-37 lead on likely Republican nominee Walt Havenstein.
NY-Gov: Corruption allegations are apparently having no effect on Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) as a Quinnipiac poll shows him with a 56-28 lead on Westchester CE Rob Astorino (R).
RI-Gov: In the Democratic primary, a WPRI/Providence Journal poll shows a tight 3-way race with Treasurer Gina Raimondo leading Providence Mayor Angel Tavares 32-27 with Clay Pell close behind at 26.
TN-Gov: Gov. Bill Haslam (R) leads Charlie Brown (D) 55-30 in a Rasmussen poll.
In the night's main attraction, Dan Sullivan beat out Mead Treadwell and Joe Miller, who slightly upset Treadwell for 2nd place to face Sen. Mark Begich. In the contested SD-F race, State Rep. Bill Stoltze won the Republican nomination. In the State House incumbent Wilson (R) beat fellow incumbent Isaacson in a redistricting-induced primary in LD-3, while one other incumbent, Feige (R, LD-9), was beaten by a challenger.
In Wyoming, Gov. Matt Mead had a solid, if not overwhelming, win with about 55% over splintered opposition. In the SoS race, Ed Murray won with 37%. In the Superintendent primary, Jillian Ballow completed the establishment sweep, winning with 41%. Incumbents Emerich, Barnard, Case, Landen won their State Senate primaries in SD-5, SD-15, SD-25, and SD-27. In SD-1 and SD-29, the races were too close to call, with the incumbents up less than 60 votes. For the State House, incumbents Teeters (R, LD-5), Blevins (R, LD-25), Coleman (R, LD-30), and Mader (R, LD-52) were defeated.
Finally, in Virginia, Republicans regained control of the State Senate, as Del. Ben Chafin picked up SD-38.
Kentucky: Questions are swirling around Alison Grimes unusually low rent on her campaign bus, which just happens to be owned by her father's company. If it can be proven that the company has been renting the bus at below fair-market value, the Grimes campaign and her father's company could face penalties.
Arkansas: The NRSC debuted a new IE ad here attacking Pryor for voting to give Social Security to illegal immigrants. In lily white and old Arkansas, this is a good angle to play.
Iowa: Crossroads is providing air cover to Ernst, attacking Braley for missing his Veterans Affairs Committee hearings.
Hawaii: Chris McDaniel could learn from Colleen Hannabusa, who has conceded defeat in the Democratic Senate primary.
North Carolina: The NRSC is providing some help to the underfunded campaign of Thom Tillis, launching $1.4 million in coordinated ad spending between Sep. 2-22.
TN-04: With all ballots counted, the bad Doctor has held on by 38 votes. Jim Tracy has until August 26 to request a recount.
Colorado: The RGA is pouncing on Hickenlooper's major weaknesses here, attacking him on gun rights and his granting of a temporary reprieve to serial killer Nathan Dunlap
3:35 ET: Alright, we're up to 295/441, and Sullivan's lead has increased to 40-32-25. Miller needs to win the 33% still out by 18 points or so to take this, and from what precincts are left I don't think he has a shot at doing that. I'm going to call it for Sullivan, and sign off for tonight.
3:03 ET: Another big drop puts us at 245/441, and it's back to 40-33 Sullivan over Miller. Barring any major surprises, Sullivan should have this.
2:35 ET: We're at about 40% now, and Miller is slowly gaining, though not by anywhere near enough. He's down 39-33 still, but a slightly closer 39-33.
2:14 ET: Up to about a third in, and its still 39-33 Sullivan over Miller. The math is getting harder for Miller however, as what should be his best area (Fairbanks) is mostly in.
1:57 ET: Another drop, and Sullivan's lead is slowly growing. He's up 40-32.5 over Miller with 1/4 in.
1:13 ET: Here we go, results are in from the AK site. Sullivan is up 40-34 on Joe Miller with 17% in. Treadwell is in 3rd with 24%.
1:07 ET: Still nothing from Alaska, but Wyoming is all in. Mead wins 55-32-13, Murray is up on Buchanan by 1,700 votes for Sec of State, Balow is up 41-32 for Superintendent and got the check from AP. SD-1 is too close to call, with a 54-vote lead for the incumbent Senator, Incumbent Emerich won 56-44 in SD-5, incumbent Bernard won 54-46 in SD-15, Wassenburger won 66-34 in SD-23, Case won 46-31 for SD-25, Landen won 71-29 in SD-27, and Incumbent Perkins is up 51-49 in SD-29. All in all, another good primary night for the GOP establishment.
12:00 ET: (Most of) Alaska has closed! Now lets see if this is going to be a long night or if we'll get winners quickly.
11:23 ET: Wyoming Update, with 400/482 in, Balow is up 40-32 for Superintendent, Buchanan is up 36-35 for Sec of State, and Mead is at 55 for Governor.
10:53 ET: Wyoming Senate update: SD-29-R is too close to call with all the precincts in, incumbent Perkins is up 36 votes on his challenger. Bill Landon is way ahead in SD-27-R, and Incumbent Paul Barnard is up 54-46 in SD-5-R.
10:32 ET: With a little over a third of the vote in, Mead has gotten the check from AP, at 58-29-13. Hill is in 3rd place. Murray has pulled into a 1,100 vote lead for Sec. of State, and Ballow is up 3,000 votes for Superintendent.
10:17 ET: Wyoming is slowly coming in, and Matt Mead looks soild for re-nomination. He's only below 50% in a handful of counties, and is crushing in Casper. For Sec of State, Murray is up 148 votes on Buchanan.
10:00 ET: The night's been boring so far, as Republicans pick up VA-SD-38 while Democrats hold VA-HD-48 and VA-HD-90. In Wyoming, Mead is crushing with a handful of precincts in, and the Sec of State R race looks close.
9:55 - Gonna hand things off to Greyhound for Liveblog #2 at 10. With about 2% in, Mead is at 62, Buchanan is leading Murray by 9 votes for SoS, and Balow is up 46-28 over Winney for Superintendent.
9:22 - First precinct in, from Casper. Mead is at 67 (with Hill at just 8%, behind a Some Dude). Murray is leading the SoS field with 37, and Balow is at 50 for Superintendent.
9:00 - Polls have closed in Wyoming.
7:33 - Gonna go ahead and call all 3 for their expected victors. With 60% in, Chafin is leading Hymes 61-32 in SD-38, giving the GOP Senate control. Dems have 60% in LD-48 and 89% in LD-90. See y'all at 9 for Wyoming.
7:25 - Major vote dump and it looks like little drama anywhere. Chafin (R) has 62% with 40% of the vote in for SD-38, while Dems look headed for easy holds in both House seats.
7:00 - Polls have closed in Virginia. Today will be a very staggered affair, with Wyoming at 9 and Alaska at midnight.
Today, we have a neat little hybrid of two smaller-state primaries and a very important legislative special election to determine control of the VA State Senate.
Poll Closing Times (Eastern): Virginia - 7 || Wyoming - 9 || Alaska - 12 Midnight
The Last Frontier will be last to count tonight, so it's likely we won't be able to liveblog the whole thing. That said, it's still home of tonight's most important race. First, there are some other races on the ballot as well that aren't competitive. For AK-Gov, there are no serious primaries, and all candidates will head onto a three-way general between incumbent Sean Parnell (R), ex-Juneau Mayor Byron Mallott (D), and R-turned-I centrist ex-Valdez Mayor Bill Walker. RRH currently rates this general election as Likely R. The shotgun-wedding AK-LG primaries are not competitive; Parnell will run with Anchorage Mayor Dan A. Sullivan, Mallott will run with State Sen. Hollis French, and Walker will run with former state fish and wildlife service commissioner Craig Fleener.
AK-Sen (R): The primary to take on vulnerable incumbent Sen. Mark Begich (D) is a three-way affair with a clear front-runner. Former appointed state AG and state natural resources commissioner Dan S. Sullivan entered the race relatively late, but has fundraised very well and has leapt out to a decent primary lead on the backs of establishment support and confusion with the other Dan Sullivan (the Anchorage mayor and presumptive LG nominee). Sullivan looks like a solid, but not quite overwhelming, frontrunner today. Sullivan's entry was spurred by discontent with the original GOP recruit for the race, LG Mead Treadwell. Despite entering the race early in 2013 and looking like the presumptive nominee for some time, Treadwell squandered that chance - and his establishment support - with consistently anemic fundraising. After Sullivan's entry, Treadwell fell into second place, but has become somewhat relevant again by casting himself as more antiestablishment than Sullivan. While a Treadwell win would be an upset, it is not out of the question. Finally, a candidate who was definitely not recruited to run was 2010 nominee Joe Miller. After ousting Lisa Murkowski in the 2010 GOP primary, Miller proceeded to run an awful campaign, losing to her as a write-in in the general and rendering himself toxic. While he still has committed supporters, Miller likely has a hard ceiling of around 25 and will come in third tonight. RRH currently rates this general election as a Tossup.
AK Legislature: There is only one state Senate primary, for SD-F (R) (yes, Alaska letters its State Senate districts) in the blood-red MatSu valley north of Anchorage. Palmer mayor DeLena Johnson and State Rep. Bill Stoltze are squaring off in a contest more about personality and parochial issues; I can not see a clear favorite. The State House has a number of redistricting-induced primaries, including an incumbent-on-incumbent matchup in LD-3 (R).
Now America's reddest, it's easy to forget that the Cowboy State was up for grabs downballot as recently as the late 1980s. But those days are long gone, and all the action is on the GOP side tonight. With no WY-Sen primary challenge from Liz Cheney, Sen. Mike Enzi (R) faces no serious opposition in the primary for a fourth term. Enzi will likely face retired priest Charlie Hardy (D) in the general. RRH currently rates this general election as Safe R. Additionally, WY-Aud incumbent Cynthia Cloud (R) is unopposed for a second term and appointed WY-Treas incumbent Mark Gordon (R) faces token primary and no general opposition.
WY-Gov (R): Incumbent Matt Mead (R) has been mostly popular and noncontroversial for his entire tenure, with one significant exception: Mead and the legislature led the charge to strip elected State Superintendent Cindy Hill (R) of most of her duties, citing mismanagement in her office. Hill won her lawsuit to have the office's functions restored, and has decided to challenge Mead for the top job. However, Hill's campaign seems to be running on little but spite and Mead is heavily favored. Democrats are running WYDP chair and 2010 candidate Pete Gosar (D), brother of AZ-4 Rep. Paul (R), but he stands next to no chance against Mead. RRH currently rates this general election as Safe R.
WY-SoS (R): There are four serious candidates for the open seat that also serves as the state's de facto LG. There is little ideological daylight between the four, with personal differences being paramount. Developer Ed Murray has been running the best organized campaign and looks like the front-runner, however each of the three other candidates have a chance to win. Ex-State House Speaker Ed Buchanan has some establishment support, ex-State Rep. Pete Illoway has been emphasizing competence issues, and Rock Springs councilman Clark Stith is the most antiestablishment of the bunch. Murray looks marginally favored, but the race going any other way would not be a surprise. No Dems are running for this seat.
WY-Supt (R): Three little-known Republicans are squaring off for Hill's open seat. The front-runner seems to be Mead's department of family services chief, Jillian Balow, who carries the banner of the state establishment. Balow's main competition seems to be from Sheryl Lain, Hill's top lieutenant, who promises to carry on Hill's more antiestablishment mantle. Two-time State House candidate Bill Winney looks like a third wheel. Democrats do have a candidate here in businessman Mike Ceballos (D), who was also leader of the state's Heritage Foundation chapter and a state official under 90s-era Gov. Jim Geringer (R). RRH currently rates this general election as Safe R.
WY Legislature: There are quite a few competitive Senate primaries. SD-1 (R) is in the northeast corner of the state; incumbent Ogden Driskill should be favored over a challenge from antiestablishment rancher Judy McCullogh. SD-5 (R) covers the northwest side of Cheyenne. Incumbent Fred Emerich is one of the most moderate GOP members of the Senate, and has drawn a primary challenge from State Rep. Lynn Hutchings, who is known as a staunch social conservative. There does not seem to be a clear favorite. SD-15 (R) in the southwest corner of the state is between establishment incumbent Paul Barnard and antiestablishment challenger Karl Allred; The incumbent should be favored. SD-23 (R) is an open seat in rural northeast Wyoming; Ex-State Rep. Jeff Wasserburger should be favored over a Some Dude. SD-25 (R, D) around Lander is one of the few competitive seats in the legislature; incumbent Republican Cale Case has been an antiestablishment gadfly and faces three challengers, including 2010 challenger Joe Malek and businesswoman Jennifer McCarty. Vote splitting probably allows Case to be renominated but an upset is a possibility. On the D side, there is a primary between 2006 nominee Travis Brockie and college administrator Sergio Maldonado; there is no clear favorite. SD-27 (R) is in eastern Casper; incumbent Bill Landen should be favored over antiestablishment consultant Kara Linn. SD-29 (R) is in western Casper; incumbent Drew Perkins should be favored over antiestablishment real estate investor Bob Ide.
VA Legislative Specials: The most important legislative special of the day is for VA-SD-38, to fill the deep red seat along the WV border in Virginia's far southwest Appalachian coalfields. The seat was left open by conservadem Phil Puckett's (D) resignation and the special will determine the balance of power in the chamber through to the 2015 general election. State Rep. Ben Chafin (R) is the heavy favorite to pick up the seat for the GOP, but Tazewell county commissioner Mike Hymes (D) is running a serious campaign. A complicating factor is the presence of center-left funeral director Rick Mullins (I), who may make it even harder for Hymes to pull the upset. Two State House Specials are also occuring today; both LD-48 in Arlington and LD-90 in a black-majority area of Hampton Roads should be Safe D holds, though Republicans are running a serious campaign in the D+11 LD-48 with a former school board member.
Happy primary day! We'll have a preview of Alaska, Wyoming, and a very important legislative special in Virginia at midday, and our usual liveblog starting at 7:00 PM tonight.
AK-Sen: It was a big day for last-minute endorsements up north, as Mead Treadwell (R) picked up a very cool endorsement from astronaut Buzz Aldrin, who knows Treadwell from a NASA lunar base working group the two have served on. Mike Huckabee, meanwhile, endorsed Joe Miller in one of the relatively few times he and Palin have converged on a pick.
IA-Sen: The DSCC's latest ad attacks Joni Ernst for being endorsed by Sarah Palin, which is bad because well, Republican women. I'm sure the DSCC would have run the same ad against a male Palin-endorsed candidate.
LA-Sen: Mary Landrieu has been taking heat from local media over her use of taxpayer dollars to charter a private plane to campaign events. (Landrieu can use her government budget to travel for official Senate business, but needs to use her campaign account to fund campaign trips.) These types of campaign finance scandals can be very hard to shake when they drop at the wrong time, and Bill Cassidy is already running with the "Air Mary" moniker (the scandal is similar to 2012's "Air Claire," which would have sunk McCaskill against any Republican with a cerebral cortex).
NC-Sen: Thom Tillis has a nice ad up on his background of working low-wage jobs. I understand what Tillis means here when he says "Senators never pay the price" for Washington's failings, but it's funny to hear that line coming from a state famous for booting incumbents after one term.
NH-Sen: Scott Brown and Jeanne Shaheen each had a notable Senator join them on the campaign trail yesterday: Brown brought in John McCain, who carried NH in two primaries and calls it his "second favorite state," and Shaheen had Amy Klobuchar, who may be looking at a POTUS run of her own someday.
NV-Sen: Harry Reid, in perhaps another retirement tea leaf, said he "doesn't care" if Gov. Brian Sandoval runs for his seat in 2016. Reid did argue that sitting governors have trouble running for the Senate...and then cited two governors who ran and won convincingly (Joe Manchin and Richard Bryan).
NY-19: The NY AFL-CIO (which, as you'd expect, almost always endorses Democrats) passed on this race, adding insult to injury for Sean Eldridge, who at some point passed Linda McMahon for the distinction of "Worst Political Use Of Spouse's Fortune." The injury came last week, when the NYS United Teachers endorsed Rep. Chris Gibson (R) over Eldridge.
WI-06: The final GOP primary ballots here should be counted by Friday, and barring a big surprise, Glenn Grothman should hold onto his 215-vote lead over Joe Leibham. Leibham would then be entitled to ask for a recount.
WV-03: Crossroads GPS is on the air attacking Rep. Nick Rahall (D) for voting for a carbon tax, which was included in one of the Congressional Progressive Caucus budgets that Rahall voted for.
KS-Gov: Paul Davis (D) is fishing for support from ex-Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R), a prominent SoCon who has lost his last two races. Davis left a very nice voicemail for Tiahrt after the primaries, and Tiahrt was apparently so touched that he uploaded the message to Facebook, causing quite the local stir. Gov. Sam Brownback did endorse Tiahrt's primary foe (Rep. Mike Pompeo) this year, so it's not out of the question that Tiahrt could seek revenge, although endorsing a Dem certainly crosses a whole different line.
ME-Gov: Sen. Angus King (I) endorsed fellow Indie Eliot Cutler, as he did in 2010. Paul LePage, of course, desperately needs Cutler to pull at least 20% of the vote, so any campaign stops King makes or ads that he cuts will be very helpful.
OH-Gov: Man the lifeboats! Ed FitzGerald (D), whose underdog campaign has been effectively sunk by two straight weeks of bad headlines, is bleeding top staffers, who are apparently seeing the writing on the wall and trying to latch on to candidates in more viable races.
Odds & Ends
FL-Redistricting: The plaintiffs in the FDF lawsuit, still unsatisfied with their victory, have rejected the legislature's new map and have asked Judge Terry Lewis to draw his own map and include a Tallahassee-to-Jacksonville seat. Whatever Lewis does, he needs to decide quickly, as primaries are scheduled to take place next week under the old lines (and early voting is well underway).
RIP: Ex-Sen. James "Jumpin' Jim" Jeffords (R-turned-I, VT) passed away yesterday at 80. Jeffords, who along with Lincoln Chafee was one of the last two liberal Republicans in the Senate, famously left the GOP and flipped the chamber in 2000, which the linked WaPo piece nicely details.