This is the fourth and final part of our series analyzing 4Q fundraising reports from competitive and otherwise intriguing races. Previous entries have covered the Northeast, Midwest, and South. This one covers everything that lies beyond the Central Time Zone. Highlights:
Linda Lingle's $1.77M haul immediately jumps off the page, as she won the state and region last quarter by a good amount. Though Lingle's odds are fairly long, she will not make this an easy race for Mazie Hirono (or Ed Case, who is spending himself into oblivion).
On the mainland, Orrin Hatch had a great quarter, and looks even better when you consider that none of his opponents have filed FEC forms yet. It's looking more like the only way to beat Hatch will be to hold him below 40% at the convention, as he will have a huge cash edge in a primary.
Dianne Feinstein is not going anywhere.
Nevada looks like it will be the West's answer to Virginia. Dean Heller and Shelley Berkley have been close in fundraising and CoH throughout the race, although Berkley is spending more.
On the House side, fundraising in this region was generally lower than it was back east. Mike Coffman ($424K) was a notable exception, although his self-funding opponent raised slightly more. Jeff Denham, John Garamendi, and Lois Capps all had stellar quarters in their newly competitive districts.
Ami Bera, the strongest of the perpetually unsuccessful AULSID (Alliance of Ultra-Liberal Suburban Indian Democrats), significantly outraised Rep. Dan Lungren and may become the first of that alliance to win. Other incumbents outraised: Pete Stark, Brian Bilbray, Scott Tipton, and Coffman. Lungren, Heller, and Jerry McNerney trail in CoH.
Finally, the three Member vs. Member matchups, all intraparty:
David Schweikert and Ben Quayle are very close to one another in fundraising, with Schweikert up slightly.
After starting in a huge hole, Howard Berman has come on strong and may now be the favorite in the Battle Of The 'Ermans. He outraised Brad Sherman 8-1 in Q4, was the only Californian to post a million-dollar quarter, and is closing in on Sherman in CoH.
Janice Hahn, against whom this site actively campaigned this summer, has less money than Laura Richardson....and might we actually be supporting Hahn this time?
Arizona: A new We Ask America poll in Arizona shows Mitt Romney leading the GOP presidential primary with 37%, followed by Rick Santorum at 27%, Newt Gingrich at 15% and Ron Paul at 8%. A CNN poll shows a closer race, Romney 36%, Santorum 32%, Gingrich 18%, Paul 6%, Undecided 6%.
Georgia: A new Insider Advantage poll in Georgia finds Newt Gingrich with a small lead over the GOP presidential field with 26%, followed by Mitt Romney at 24%, Rick Santorum at 23% and Ron Paul at 12%. The Georgia primary is on Super Tuesday March 6.
Michigan: A new Mitchell/Rosetta Stone Poll in Michigan shows Mitt Romney leading Rick Santorum, 32% to 30%, with Newt Gingrich at 9% and Ron Paul at 7%. Another 22% of voters remain undecided. Eight days ago, Santorum had a 9% lead and twelve days before that Romney led by 15% in the same poll. A Rasmussen Reports poll shows Santorum with 38% of the vote to Romney's 34%. Well behind are Texas Rep. Ron Paul with 10% support and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 9%.
Paul: Ron Paul is out with a new hard hitting ad running in Michigan and Super Tuesday states in which he attacks Rick Santorum as being a fake fiscal conservative.
Trump: In what seems like a move to bolster Mitt Romney, Donald Trump said Tuesday he would "seriously, seriously" consider jumping into the White House race if Rick Santorum wins the Republican presidential nomination.
Washington: A new Public Policy Polling survey in Washington finds Rick Santorum leads Mitt Romney in the state's upcoming GOP caucuses, 38% to 27%. They are followed by Ron Paul at 15% and Newt Gingrich at 12%. The poll finds that the presence of Gingrich helps Romney. If he were to drop out, 59% of his supporters would go to Santorum and just 13% to Romney. The state's caucuses will be held on March 3.
Senate
Arizona: In a new PPP poll, Rep. Jeff Flake leads both of his Democratic opponents, Richard Carmona and Don Bivens, by identical 11 points margins at 46-35. Carmona has some room for improvement as 23% of Democrats are undecided, compared to only 14% of Republicans. PPP concludes that Flake remains the clear favorite to win.
Indiana: Sen. Dick Lugar defended himself from critics who say that he isn't qualified to run for office because he doesn't live in the state. Lugar pointed out that two attorneys general have affirmed his position that the Indianapolis address on his Indiana driver's license is valid, even though he sold that home in 1977. The Indiana Election Commission is set to meet this week to consider Lugar's residency situation.
Nebraska: In a poll conducted for Jon Bruning endorser Citizens United Political Victory Fund by Wenzel Strategies, Attorney General Jon Bruning was at 48 percent, Don Stenberg 19 percent and State Sen. Deb Fischer at 10 percent. Twenty percent remain undecided. An internal survey last month paid for by the Stenberg backing Senate Conservatives Fund revealed a much different result, showing Stenberg within just 6 points of Bruning.
Texas: Ted Cruz is narrowing the gap with frontrunner Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst according to a new Texas Tribune poll. Dewhurst led with 38 percent, followed by Cruz at 27 percent and former ESPN analyst Craig James and former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert each with 7 percent.
House
CA-21: Fresno City Councilman Blong Xiong is entering the race for the open 21st District. Another Democrat, John Hernandez of the Central California Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, recently announced he is running for the 21st District seat as well. Republicans like their candidate here, Assemblyman David Valadao.
IL-16: Freshman Rep. Adam Kinzinger and Rep. Don Manzullo, who has served in Congress since 1993, released dueling TV ads this week that go after one another on the issue of spending. The primary is on March 20. Kinzinger outraised Manzullo by $116,000 during the fourth quarter and also had more money in the bank at the end of the period.
NJ-5: Former New York Giants linebacker and Hall of Famer Harry Carson will not challenge Rep. Scott Garrett next year because he could not commit the time. Democrats are left without a top tier candidate to take on Garrett.
NM-1: With the filing deadline passing last week, no big name Republican came forward for the open Albuquerque based 1st District. Republicans do not view the seat as a top pickup opportunity this year. For the Democrats, former Albuquerque Mayor Marty Chavez, state Sen. Eric Griego and Bernalillo County Commissioner Michelle Lujan Grisham are running for the seat.
PA-18 The campaign of Rep. Tim Murphy released a poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies which shows him leading former Senate staffer Evan Feinberg with 74 percent to Feinberg's 12 percent. The poll's release came one day after Sen. Tom Coburn endorsed Feinberg, a former Coburn staffer, and labeled Murphy an "Arlen Specter Republican."
Governor
Wisconsin: A poll of 599 likely voters done for a pro recall group, the Cops for Justice Fund, finds three Democrats leading Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker in head to head matchups. The American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees endorsed Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk for the recall race against Walker this week. Petitions to recall Walker still have yet to be certified.
Redistricting
Minnesota: A Minnesota court released a least change congressional map for the state which kept lines largely intact. Rep. Michele Bachmann's home was moved into CD 4, but she announced she would run for reelection in her current 6th District seat. Rep. John Kline's 2nd District was made about two points more Democratic, but he remains safe. Rep. Eric Paulsen's 3rd District moved about a point and a half toward the Republicans. The 8th District of Rep. Chip Cravaack stayed the same politically, and will be a heavily contested seat next year.
New Mexico: Retired State District Judge James Hall released two preliminary proposals for comment by parties in the House redistricting case. He plans to make a final decision by Feb. 27. Hall adopted a redistricting plan in January, but the state Supreme Court overturned that Feb. 10, telling Hall to come up with a new plan that was less biased toward Republicans, kept more communities intact, and shored up Hispanic influence in a Clovis area district.
Wisconsin: A federal judge hearing the dispute over Wisconsin's legislative redistricting maps has asked the two sides to meet and determine whether the Legislature can come up with a plan that will address the two key issues in the redistricting suit, the disenfranchisement of minority voters and the 300,000 residents who will go six years between voting for a state senator. If the Legislature does try, they would have four weeks to finalize a new map. If not, the trial will resume.
Arizona: A new We Ask America poll in Arizona shows Mitt Romney leading the GOP presidential primary with 37%, followed by Rick Santorum at 27%, Newt Gingrich at 15% and Ron Paul at 8%. A CNN poll shows a closer race, Romney 36%, Santorum 32%, Gingrich 18%, Paul 6%, Undecided 6%.
Michigan: A new Mitchell/Rosetta Stone Poll in Michigan shows Mitt Romney leading Rick Santorum, 32% to 30%, with Newt Gingrich at 9% and Ron Paul at 7%. Another 22% of voters remain undecided. Eight days ago, Santorum had a 9% lead and twelve days before that Romney led by 15% in the same poll. A Rasmussen Reports poll shows Santorum with 38% of the vote to Romney's 34%. Well behind are Texas Rep. Ron Paul with 10% support and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 9%.
Texas: Ted Cruz is narrowing the gap with frontrunner Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst according to a new Texas Tribune poll. Dewhurst led with 38 percent, followed by Cruz at 27 percent and former ESPN analyst Craig James and former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert each with 7 percent.
New Mexico: Retired State District Judge James Hall released two preliminary proposals for comment by parties in the House redistricting case. He plans to make a final decision by Feb. 27. Hall adopted a redistricting plan in January, but the state Supreme Court overturned that Feb. 10, telling Hall to come up with a new plan that was less biased toward Republicans, kept more communities intact, and shored up Hispanic influence in a Clovis area district.
The courts appear to have drawn a least-change map, particularly in Greater Minnesota, as the 1st, 7th, and 8th see minimal, population-driven shifts. The lines changed a little more consequentially in the Metro area, as Michele Bachmann's home may have drawn out of the 6th, but her base remains intact. The 4th and 5th remain urban Democratic districts, and the 3rd is still a swing seat in suburban Hennepin. The 2nd, in the south suburbs, sees the most significant changes to its lines, but appears to still be Republican-leaning.
Legislative maps were also released. More on this later.
Arizona: A new Public Policy Polling survey in Arizona finds Mitt Romney with a small lead. Romney leads Santorum 36 to 33%. Newt Gingrich is third at 16% and Ron Paul fourth at 9%. Santorum is better liked by Arizona Republicans than Romney, Santorum's at +34 (61/27), while Romney's at +24 (58/34).
Michigan: A new Public Policy Polling survey in Michigan shows Rick Santorum leading Mitt Romney by four points in the GOP presidential race, 37% to 33%, followed by Ron Paul at 15% and Newt Gingrich at 10%. A We Ask America poll in Michigan finds Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum tied at 29% each. They are followed by Ron Paul at 12% and Newt Gingrich at 10%.
Oklahoma: A new Tulsa World poll in Oklahoma finds Rick Santorum leading the GOP presidential race with 39%, followed by Mitt Romney at 23%, Newt Gingrich at 18% and Ron Paul at 13%. The Oklahoma primary is on March 6.
Paul: Ron Paul raised $4.5 million in January and a money bomb last week brought in another $1.7 million. His $13.3 million haul in the 4th quarter of 2011 was second behind only Mitt Romney.
Restore Our Future: The pro-Romney super PAC Restore Our Future spent $14 million in January. That's more than twice the nearly $7 million the super PAC raised in January, although Restore Our Future finished the month with more than $16 million in the bank.
Romney: Mitt Romney is enlisting the help of Donald Trump this week in Michigan. Trump is scheduled to do a series of radio interviews this week on local stations from Traverse City to Detroit touting Mitt Romney and attacking Rick Santorum.
Texas: A new University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll shows Rick Santorum with a big lead in the Republican presidential race with 45%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 18%, Mitt Romney at 16% and Ron Paul at 14%. Texas still doesn't have all of its congressional and legislative maps in place so May 29 appears to be the earliest possible primary date.
Senate
Missouri: Sen. Claire McCaskill, preparing for a tough race this Fall, is responding to two ads by the state Republican Party and Crossroads GPS with spots of her own. One responds to a Crossroads ad attacking her for backing Obama's compromise on the rule requiring church related institutions to provide free contraception coverage. The other touts her Missouri roots and political independence. The Republican Party and its allies have already spent several million dollars on negative advertising against McCaskill.
South Carolina: Sen. Lindsey Graham, despite grumblings of a primary challenge from the right, looks like a strong favorite in 2014. All four freshman SC Republican congressman have disavowed any interest in challenging Graham. One possibility who has not ruled out a race, State Sen. Tom Davis from Beaufort.
Virginia: A new Christopher Newport University poll in Virginia shows George Allen edging Tim Kaine in the U.S. Senate race, 42% to 40%.
House
AZ-4: Sheriff Paul Babeu went on offense in an interview with CNN, saying the accusation he threatened his former boyfriend with deportation was false, and that he only requested the man stop using his political campaign's website and Twitter account to post private information. "One, he's legal. He has said that. I've said that. And then, in addition, this whole thing about deportation, we all know I don't have deportation authority," Babeu said.
CA-26: Assemblywoman Julia Brownley (D) of Ventura County will run for the 26th Congressional District. The Democrats were left without a strong candidate here after Supervisor Steve Bennett dropped out last week. Republican Sen. Tony Strickland of Moorpark and Supervisor Linda Parks of Thousand Oaks, who has said she may run as an independent, are also in the race.
CO-2: Businessman Eric Weissmann is preparing a campaign against Rep. Jared Polis. Weissmann said he primarily plans to self fund his campaign, but declined to say how much he'd be willing to spend. The 2nd District became more competitive after redistricting, but still remains Democratic leaning. New voter registration statistics show 34 percent of active voters registered listed as Democrats, 32 percent registered as Republicans, and 33 percent unaffiliated. Last year, Democrats had a four point advantage.
MA-9: Rep. Bill Keating has dodged a primary rematch with former State Sen. Robert O'Leary. Keating beat O'Leary by a little over a thousand votes in 2010. Local District Attorney Sam Sutter is also running for the seat in the Democratic primary. Keating's home of Quincy was drawn out of the new 9th District, causing him to change his primary residence to a summer house on Cape Cod.
NC-11: Tea Party aligned ophthalmologist Dan Eichenbaum said he would not file to run for Congress in North Carolina's 11th district. Eichenbaum won 34 percent of the vote in the 2010 Republican primary for the district. Real estate investor Mark Meadows, businessman Ethan Wingfield, and local district attorney Jeff Hunt are all competing for the Republican nomination.
NC-12: After suggesting he was unsure whether he would run for another term, Rep. Mel Watt has filed to run for reelection.
Redistricting
Minnesota: The Minnesota Special Redistricting panel intends to release its redistricting plan at 1 p.m. today by posting maps and the panel's orders online.
This is part three of a four-part series. Previous entries covered the Northeast and Midwest. Tonight, we're in Dixie. Highlights:
David Dewhurst raised over $1.5M from donors and tossed in $2M more of his own money. His total 4Q haul is the highest of any Republican nationwide, trailing only Elizabeth Warren. Despite this, Tom Leppert still leads in CoH, and Ted Cruz isn't far off the pace. This will be the most expensive primary in the nation.
Excluding Virginia (covered in part 1), the only other competitive Senate race in this region is in Florida, where Bill Nelson has a 9-to-1 cash edge on likely GOP nominee Connie Mack. This would be a good state for Crossroads to invest in.
On the House side, Allen West is raising more than most Senate candidates and has close to $3M CoH. Alan Grayson continues to raise big money as well.
The South has more wide-open GOP primaries than all other regions combined, which should make for a fascinating summer of runoffs. Open seat contests in AR-04, FL-19, NC-11, OK-02, SC-07, and TX-14 all feature large fields of qualified Republicans raising significant cash.
The Texas court standoff is keeping fundraising numbers down in the state's four new districts, as no one knows what TX-25, 27, 33, 34, and 37 will look like. These races are all in holding patters and with the exception of Roger Williams, few candidates are fundraising successfully.
Incumbents Spencer Bachus, Walter Jones, Joe Barton, Chuck Fleishmann, Alan Nunnelee and Eddie Bernice Johnson all face primary threats and most are pre-emptively spending. David Rivera's cash is low but no Republicans have stepped up against him yet.
Incumbents outraised by challengers: Rivera, Johnson, Rick Crawford, Larry Kissell, Daniel Webster, and Lloyd Doggett. No incumbents trail in cash on hand.
Only two Member vs. Member races in the South:
Jeff Landry is picking up his pace but still trails Charles Boustany 2-1 in CoH. As James would say, Geaux Landry!
And in the inexplicable FL-07 faceoff, John Mica outraised Sandy Adams in Q4 and has a good CoH edge. Someone needs to get these two in a room and explain that both can be back for the 113th if one runs in the 6th, where the underwhelming Craig Miller now looks to be on the fast track to Congress.
Arizona: A new Public Policy Polling survey in Arizona finds Mitt Romney with a small lead. Romney leads Santorum 36 to 33%. Newt Gingrich is third at 16% and Ron Paul fourth at 9%. Santorum is better liked by Arizona Republicans than Romney, Santorum's at +34 (61/27), while Romney's at +24 (58/34).
Michigan: A new Public Policy Polling survey in Michigan shows Rick Santorum leading Mitt Romney by four points in the GOP presidential race, 37% to 33%, followed by Ron Paul at 15% and Newt Gingrich at 10%. A We Ask America poll in Michigan finds Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum tied at 29% each. They are followed by Ron Paul at 12% and Newt Gingrich at 10%.
South Carolina: Sen. Lindsey Graham, despite grumblings of a primary challenge from the right, looks like a strong favorite in 2014. All four freshman SC Republican congressman have disavowed any interest in challenging Graham. One possibility who has not ruled out a race, State Sen. Tom Davis from Beaufort.
CA-26: Assemblywoman Julia Brownley (D) of Ventura County will run for the 26th Congressional District. The Democrats were left without a strong candidate here after Supervisor Steve Bennett dropped out last week. Republican Sen. Tony Strickland of Moorpark and Supervisor Linda Parks of Thousand Oaks, who has said she may run as an independent, are also in the race.
Maine: Washington County voted Saturday and gave Ron Paul the majority of its votes, but not enough to overtake Mitt Romney's lead in last week's Maine caucuses. Paul won 163 votes; Romney had 80 votes, Rick Santorum received 57 votes, and Newt Gingrich 4. In a recount announced on Friday, Romney was ahead in the state by 239 votes.
Gingrich: Newt Gingrich is hoping to resurrect his presidential campaign by winning Georgia's primary on Super Tuesday. Gingrich criticized both Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum for pulling out of a presidential debate scheduled in the Peach State on March 1. Gingrich is confident that his strategy, where he seems to be focusing more on Southern states, will propel him back to the front of the pack.
Romney: Restore Our Future, the Super PAC supporting Mitt Romney, announced it has bought almost $6 million in new ad time. The group is spending almost $2 million this week on ads in eight states and on national cable. In Michigan, the super PAC has bought an additional $876,000 for commercials beginning next Tuesday on top of the $640,000 it said it is spending this week in the state. Romney and his allies are outspending Rick Santorum and his backers by about a 3 to 1 margin in Michigan.
Santorum: With Mitt Romney in Salt Lake City to celebrate the 10th anniversary of the 2002 Winter Olympics, Rick Santorum said Romney's leadership of those games amounted to pork barrel spending and hypocrisy. At the time, Romney's Olympics got more federal dollars ($1.3 billion) than any previous U.S. Olympics. Romney's campaign continues to paint Santorum as a heavy supporter of earmarks during his days in the U.S. Senate.
Senate
Minnesota: Afghanistan veteran and former Vets for Freedom executive director Pete Hegseth is expected to announce a Minnesota U.S. Senate bid against Democrat Amy Klobuchar.
Missouri: Republican state Auditor Tom Schweich is considering getting into the race for the Republican nomination to take on Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill. The Republican field of Rep. Todd Akin, former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman, and St. Louis businessman John Brunner, has left many Republicans unimpressed and hoping for a late entry into the race.
House
AZ-4: Arizona Sheriff Paul Babeu is being accused of threatening to deport a former boyfriend when he wouldn't agree to keep their relationship secret. Babeu's campaign has so far denied the allegations made in the Phoenix New Times article, beyond that he is in fact gay. Rep. Paul Gosar is now looking much likelier to win the Republican primary here.
AZ-8: Jesse Kelly leads the Republican race for the special election to replace Rep. Gabrielle Giffords. A Wenzel Strategies survey, paid for by Citizens United Political Victory Fund, puts Kelly at 43 percent to State Sen. Frank Antenori's 18 percent and sports commentator Dave Sitton's 10 percent. Twenty percent are undecided. The primary is April 17, with former Giffords aide Ron Barber the likely Democratic nominee.
IL-2: Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi has joined President Obama and other top Democrats in endorsing Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. for reelection. Jackson faces former Rep. Debbie Halvorson in a primary next month. Halvorson has made the House Ethics Committee's ongoing investigation of Jackson a central issue in the campaign.
NC-6: Guilford County Commissioner Billy Yow (R) filed for Congress against 14 term North Carolina Rep. Howard Coble. Coble, who is 80 years old and has suffered some health issues in recent months, announced he was running for reelection in January.
Redistricting
Kansas: House Speaker Mike O'Neal is pushing a new congressional redistricting plan that would split the Kansas City area between two districts and put part of it in with the vast, rural 1st District. The Kansas Senate has approved a bipartisan congressional redistricting plan, but the House and Gov. Sam Brownback seem to be at odds with the Senate over lines they believe are not favorable enough to the Republican Party.
Minnesota: A state judicial panel is expected to release new legislative and congressional district maps on Tuesday.
Ohio: The Ohio Supreme Court ruled Friday that it won't consider a lawsuit challenging new state House and Senate districts before this year's elections because Democrats behind the claim unreasonably delayed its filing. The court says it will allow the suit to continue with respect to the 2014 to 2020 elections that will be affected by the new maps.
Wyoming: The Wyoming House passed a legislative redistricting bill, which was expected to encounter serious opposition in the Senate. A major problem from the Senate's perspective was that the House plan put Sen. Curt Meier of LaGrange into the same Senate district as Wayne Johnson of Cheyenne. The legislatures job was to realign the state's 60 House districts, nestled in 30 Senate districts, to conform to 2010 census figures. Wyoming's population grew 14 percent from 2000 to 2010 to total 563,000.
This is the second part of this regional series. Part 1, which explains the table formatting, is linked here.
Highlights from the Midwest include:
Josh Mandel not only outraised Sherrod Brown, he also raised the most money of any Midwestern Senate candidate. Mandel is trailing in the polls, but it's clear that he has the warchest to give Brown the race of his life.
It's not news, but the Missouri candidates are lacking to say the least. Sarah Steelman leads in the polls but her campaign is in full financial crisis, only taking in $88K this quarter. John Brunner tossed in over a million dollars of his own money but hasn't burst onto the scene as Ron Johnson, a similar candidate, did in 2010. Perhaps it's good news that State Audtor Tom Schweich is considering a late entry.
Pete Hoekstra can raise money with the best of them, but he wasted far too much of it on one poorly-designed advertisement.
On the House side, Tammy Duckworth's $471K led the way (excluding Speaker Boehner), as she took in over three times what Joe Walsh did. Other incumbents outraised by challengers: Judy Biggert, Steve King, and Reid Ribble. King, Walsh, and Dan Benishek all trail in cash on hand.
Several Republicans in competitive districts had very strong quarters, including Bob Dold, Ann Wagner, Sean Duffy, Kevin Yoder, and Erik Paulsen.
There are six member vs. member races approaching in the Midwest:
Adam Kinzinger had a modest cash lead over Don Manzullo at the end of the quarter in their fast-approaching primary.
Tom Latham has a 4-to-1 cash edge over Leonard Boswell
Gary Peters is an underdog against Hansen Clarke in the majority-black MI-14, but Peters has twice as much money as Clarke.
Dennis Kucinich edged Marcy Kaptur in Q4, but Kaptur retains a nearly 6:1 CoH advantage and is spending at a lower rate.
Jim Renacci, known for his fundraising strength, is up 2:1 on Betty Sutton, who is spending heavily to introduce herself to the R-leaning district.
Russ Carnahan hasn't announced whether he will run in Lacy Clay's MO-01 or the open MO-02, but he would start with a modest cash edge over Clay.
On Tuesday, February 21, 2012 at 3:15 p.m., former Congressman Virgil Goode, Jr., will make an announcement at Federal Hall, 26 Wall Street, New York concerning the 2012 Presidential Race.
Goode has a long history in electoral politics. Once a very conservative Democrat, he forced Democrats to share power with Republicans in the Virginia state Senate in the late 1990s. In 1998 he won a congressional seat, VA-05, as a Democrat. In 2000 he became an independent and caucuses Republican, and in 2002 he ran as a Republican. He lost re-election in 2008 to Tom Perriello (D) in a nail-biter. In 2010 he joined the Executive Committee of the Constitution Party; he will run for that party's nomination.
Impact in the general election? This probably hurts Gary Johnson on the LP ticket the most. People who vote third party are more willing to spoil their vote as a general rule, and both the LP and CP overlap in their political positions. Johnson endorsed Ron Paul in 2008, and Goode donated money to Paul's campaign in that year as well.
Elections have consequences -- from the race for President to the race for one seat on a city council. The political economist Max Weber wrote that the state possesses a monopoly on the legitimate use of force. But in the United States, the state is divided into myriad federal, state, and local entities. And the elections to fill those entities are the products of the fascinating interactions between campaigns, party affiliations, voter turnout, and the media spotlight. Red Racing Horses analyzes those elections -- from a Republican-leaning perspective -- to keep a close eye on the process of electing officials, and to offer our perspective on the election-related issues of the day. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog.
