IA-Sen: I was surprised to hear that Chuck Grassley was officially neutral in this primary, given that his longtime CoS David Young is running, but Grassley is headlining a pair of Young fundraisers so maybe it's neutrality in name only.
MA-Sen: I'm not sure what his rationale was, but Gabriel Gomez released an internal poll showing him down 47-40.
MN-Sen: Another Republican jumps into the race against Al Franken: libertarian-leaning State Rep. Jim Abeler of suburban Anoka County. He joins wealthy businessman Mike McFadden in the primary field.
NC-Sen: Kay Hagan's numbers are slightly down from last month in PPP's routine check-in on this race (although there's no mention of the trendline from PPP), leading declared GOP candidate Thom Tillis 45-40. PPP also remains obsessed with the idea that 69-year-old Virginia Foxx, who has taken no steps toward this race, will somehow be our nominee.
NH-Sen: Former State Sen. Jim Rubens (R) is thinking about running against Jeanne Shaheen. Jeb Bradley, the former NH-01 Rep. now serving as Senate Majority Leader, is widely expected to run and is cut from the same moderate cloth as Rubens.
NJ-Sen: Expect a long string of Cory Booker endorsements this week, from legislative leaders and party bosses at both ends of the state.
House
AL-01: State Rep. Chad Fincher joins the quickly growing Republican field in the first alphabetical district. Other candidates of note are 2010 gubernatorial runner-up and education reformer Bradley Byrne, columnist Quin Hillyer, and State Rep. Randy Davis, the only prominent non-Mobile candidate.
CA-52: An early coup for the NRCC: Carl DeMaio (R) leads freshman Rep. Scott Peters 48-39 in a SUSA poll for a local TV station. DeMaio, a former San Diego city councilor who lost a bid for mayor last year, could end up as one of the best recruits of the cycle.
FL-26: Elsewhere in polling, Carlos Cabelo (check Monday's roundup) released an internal showing him down 46-34 to Rep. Joe Garcia (D). Again, I'm not sure I would have released this poll, although Cabelo is largely unknown and does lead 40-39 on the infamous "informed ballot test."
MN-06: From the Department of Crappy Journalism: Roll Call's interview with Tom Emmer is entitled "Republican Embraces Bachmann 2.0 Label." Emmer is then quoted as saying, "I'm not trying to be Michele Bachmann."
Governor
CA-Gov: With his Cabinet hopes dashed, departing LA mayor Antonio Villaraigosa says he'll run for governor someday, but probably not in 2014.
FL-Gov: The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step? Rick Scott's approvals are only 43/44, but that's actually his best number ever, and he's cut Charlie Crist's lead from 16 points to a more manageable 47-37 since March. Don't hold your breath--it's still Rick Scott--but that's a lead the Syracuse Florida Orangeman is capable of blowing.
MA-Gov: I almost filed this under "WATN?" but I'm not sure how to interpret the news that Scott Brown is co-chairing (with Joe Lieberman) a new bipartisan defense policy group. Brown is certainly making an effort to stay in the news, and at least the New Hampshire chatter has died down. (Elsewhere: House Speaker Robert DeLeo, who is already as powerful as the governor, will not run, but advanced the idea that term-limited Senate President Therese Murray may.)
RI-Gov: Mike Bloomberg backed Lincoln Chafee when Chafee was an Independent, but now that the governor has become a Democrat, the nanny is switching his endorsement to the less odious (and more electable) Gina Raimondo.
WI-Gov: I believe Russ Feingold had already ruled out a run for office in 2014, but he's definitely out now, as the State Department just appointed him as an envoy to Central Africa (reminiscent of another losing Wisconsin candidate, Mark Green, who was ambassador to Tanzania in the later Bush years).
States
KY-Redistricting: After a discrepancy was discovered--prisoners were counted toward population for the congressional map but not the state legislative maps--the governor is calling for some fixes. It doesn't sound like anyone is interested in radical changes to the lines, however; at most we'll see a handful of precincts change.
UT-AG: The state legislature is moving to impeach AG John Swallow (R), who has been involved in multiple scandals since taking office in January.
Some good news for the NRSC... Alaska Lt. Governor Mead Treadwell has announced his candidacy to challenge Senator Mark Begich. Treadwell will be upgrading his exploratory committee to a full-blown campaign.
Treadwell is preferred candidate to run against Begich, but others are still considering candidacies or have entered the race:
Among those running or looking at running are state Natural Resources Commissioner Dan Sullivan and 2010 GOP nominee Joe Miller, who lost the general election to the write-in candidacy of Sen. Lisa Murkowski after beating her in a primary. The nomination of Miller would be a big blow to the GOP given he is hugely unpopular in the state.
Barring the entry of another other serious candidates, Treadwell should be the favorite to win the Republican nomination.
New Jersey: Governor Christie has no plans to actively help the likely Republican nominee, saying he has his own campaign to run, Steve Lonegan. Lonegan of course fought with Christie back in 2009 in a bitter primary campaign with Lonegan as the conservative chioce. The situation might be different if the race looked closer- Rasmussen finds likely Democratic nominee and Newark Mayor Cory Booker leading Lonegan 50-33 (in the Democratic primary, Booker leads Congressmen Holt and Pallone 54-11-8 with Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver back at 5%.
House
TX-33: This seat in the Metroplex, which combines Hispanic and African American communities, could change depending on what the Supreme Court rules on Section 5 of the VRA. This article argues that if Section 5 is upheld, an appeal of the interim map could force the creation of two African American majority districts in the DFW area and a separate Hispanic majority district. This would allow former State Rep. Domingo Garcia (D) to run in a new district instead of duking it out in a rematch with Rep. Marc Veasey (D).
AL-01: Another name is in this increasingly crowded field: State Rep. Chad Fincher. He joins businessman Dean Young, conservative columnist Quin Hilyer, former State Senator Bradley Byrne, and State Rep. Randy Davis,
More AL-01: For any potential job hunters out there, a friend of mine is hiring a staffer for Quin Hilyer's campaign in the district. Feel free to email me about the job (just click on my username on this post).
KY-06: Elisabeth Jensen (D), founder of the Lexington-based advocacy group Race for Education, is running against Rep. Andy Barr (R). Although Barr is a first-term Representative, Cook still rates this seat as Likely Republican.
IL-02: Former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. has fallen pretty far. His defense is trying to negotiate the timing of his likely prison term, stressing ongoing mental illnesses and reduced financial independence since losing his congressional seat.
FL-09: Sigh. Rep. Alan Grayson (D) is just not the same congressman who used to call government bureaucrats foul names and slander the Republican caucus since his comeback in 2012.
Governor
Massachusetts: Yesterday Don Berwick (D), who formerly ran the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services under Obama, announced his campaign. At the same time, the powerful Senate President Therese Murray (D) is still considering a run. Texas: Even as observers reading the tea leaves think Perry will pass on one more gubernatorial run, he leads Attorney General Greg Abbott in a potential primary 45-19, with 11% supporting someone else and 25% don't know. And for what it's worth this far out, Senator Cruz leads a potential presidential primary in the state, leading Paul 25-13 with Rubio at 11% and Perry himself at 10% (not that all of those folks will run).
Illinois: Republican pollster We Ask America finds incumbent Governor Pat Quinn (D) a bit recovered in a primary matchup with Attorney General Lisa Madigan. He now only trails 44-33 instead of 51-26 in January, according to the same outfit. Former Obama Chief of Staff Bill Daley, meanwhile, is improving against Quinn since announcing his campaign, leading within the margin of error 38-37 (in January Daley trailed 33-38).
Miscellaneous
New York: Read the fascinating story of how Assemblyman Nelson Castro became a government informant and got the ball rolling on many of the recent corruption scandals facing the state legislature. North Carolina: The state legislature's approval ratings are at 20/56. However, many of the other questions seem more like a survey by the North Carolina Democratic Party than a respected polling firm.
Texas: Railroad Commission Chair Barry Smitherman (R) is thought to be eyeing the Attorney General spot, which may be vacant if incumbent Greg Abbott runs for Governor. As an oil and gas regulator, Smitherman would have access to strong fundraising networks, but I think Michael Williams and Elizabeth Ames Jones showed in 2012 the position does little to build affection for commisioners among the electorate. The Tribune also points to State Senator Ken Paxton, State Rep. Dan Branch, and former Texas Supreme Court Justice Harriet O'Neill, all Republicans, as potential candidates for Attorney General.
AR-Sen: The NRA is playing an interesting chess match with Mark Pryor (D), responding to the wave of anti-Pryor ads from Mike Bloomberg's gun control PAC with a small buy of their own--but making no promises about 2014. Pryor has had the NRA's support in the past, but potential GOP foe Tom Cotton has a strong pro-2A record as well--and the NRA knows a GOP Senate is preferable to the status quo.
CO-Sen: The same Q poll that showed plummeting approval numbers for John Hickenlooper found Mark Udall in better shape. The freshman Democrat's approvals are 45/31, and Quinnipiac didn't bother to test a Republican against him.
MA-Sen: The Boston Globe/UNH has Ed Markey up 54-41 (54-43 with leaners pushed) on Gabriel Gomez. Scott Brown had already caught up to Martha Coakley this time three years ago, so Gomez needs to make some kind of magic happen here in the final 8 days.
MI-Sen: As expected, Mike Rogers did indeed opt out of this race on Friday. This clears the field for Terri Lynn Land for now, but Justin Amash is still considering.
MT-Sen: Montana Democrats say that Brian Schweitzer is all but in. Republican hopes in this race appear to hinge on ex-Gov. Marc Racicot and Rep. Steve Daines, both of whom would have the chops to run a competitive campaign against Schweitzer.
SD-Sen: With Kristi Noem out, ex-Gov. Mike Rounds has a seemingly clear path to picking up this seat for the GOP, but he may still get a semi-credible primary challenger in the form of State Sen. Larry Rhoden. Rhoden's entry would create an interesting parallel to 2002, when Rounds was a little-known State Senator and major underdog who upset two statewide officials en route to the governor's mansion.
WV-Sen: Joe Manchin, who sponsored the Senate gun control bill, is engaged in a far different chess match with the NRA than Pryor, going on the air to attack the gun-rights group despite his seat not being up until 2018. Manchin's buy will be over $100K. This race is worth keeping a long-term eye on, although our bench is woefully short after Shelley Moore Capito.
House
FL-26: We may soon have our man here: Carlos Curbelo, a Miami-Dade political consultant with ties to virtually the entire Florida GOP machine, is "very seriously considering" and will decide on a bid in 2-3 weeks. Recent scandals suggest that freshman Rep. Joe Garcia (D) may be just as dirty as his predecessor, David Rivera (R). Of course, Curbelo's ultra-insider track record means that there's no guarantees he's clean himself.
ME-02: Emily Cain, a 33-year-old Democrat who despite her youth has been in the state legislature for 9 years, is the first major candidate in the race to succeed Mike Michaud. Republican State Sen. Kenneth Fredette is out.
MN-01: State Sen. Jeremy Miller (R) won't run against Tim Walz in 2014, but didn't rule out running sometime down the line. As RRH first reported, State Rep. Mike Benson (R) is running here.
Georgia: The Savannah Morning News has the latest roundup of the ever-growing fields in Georgia's three open (and safely Republican) congressional districts.
Governor
AR-Gov: Arkansas doesn't have a "ticket" in any form, as the governor and LG are elected separately, but Democrats Mike Ross and John Burkhalter endorsed each other Friday to create a united front for the primary and general.
AZ-Gov: It's go time: the passage of Medicaid expansion, at the behest of Gov. Jan Brewer (R), has given this race its fault line. State Sen. Al Melvin, the only legislator currently challenging Brewer in the primary, voted against the expansion and seems ready to use it as a wedge issue. Brewer, of course, has the matter of the state's vague term-limits law to deal with before she's cleared to run again.
IL-Gov: Now that Gov. Pat Quinn (D) has a declared primary challenger in Bill Daley, state Democrats are staying far away from this race...very far. Of the 13 Democrats in Illinois' Congressional delegation, only one (Danny Davis) says he'll support Quinn.
NJ-Gov: After Barbara Buono surged to cut the deficit to the low dozens, Chris Christie's lead is back to 40 points in the latest poll.
State & International
FL-LG: Gov. Rick Scott needs to appoint a new LG, who will in all likelihood become his 2014 running mate. Speculation is centering on Orange County Superintendent Barbara Jenkins, a key Scott ally on education issues who, like disgraced ex-LG Jennifer Carroll, is a black, female Republican.
TX-Redistricting: Yes, there's still one more state to redistrict this decade, since the Texas map as you'll recall is a court-approved interim plan. Republican mapmakers and Democratic litigants are waiting for the Supreme Court to rule on VRA Section 5 (preclearance), which court-watchers expect will be stricken. The districts that could be affected in the remap are swingy TX-23, and TX-33, which for now is a safe blue coalition district.
Iran: "Voters" in Iran passed over several ultra-hard liners in favor of ostensibly sorta-hard liner Hasan Rowhani, who will succeed Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as president. This election at least appears to have gone more smoothly than the last one.
NJ-Sen: In a 3-0 decision, a panel of the NJ Supreme Court has upheld Christie's decision to schedule the Senate special for October 16, instead of concurrent with the November Gubernatorial election. The decision is a boon to Republicans who now have a chance to shunt Dem turnout away from the Gubernatorial (and more importantly, legislative) races.
MI-Sen: We now know how Rep. Mike Rogers will announce his decision on a Senate bid today, via e-mail. That low-key delivery method would jive with the CW that he is likely to pass on the race.
NM-Sen: As expected, ex-Gov. Gary Johnson (L/R) will not challenge Sen. Tom Udall (D) as a Republican, though he did not rule out either a future comeback Gubernatorial bid or another presidential run under the GOP banner.
SD-Sen: Ex-Gov. Mike Rounds (R) has set a goal of $9M total fundraising for his Senate bid, an immense (and probably unrealistic) sum in dirt-cheap SD.
Governor:
ME-Gov: Rep. Mike Michaud has jumped into the Governor's race, giving Democrats a primary-field-clearing candidate that will go toe-to-toe with Gov. Paul LePage (R) and 2010 candidate Elliot Cutler (I). For now, this looks like an unpredictable 3-way race with a trio of evenly matched candidates.
NV-Gov, NV-LG: AG Catherine Cortez Masto (D) has communicated that she will not be running for office in 2014 - either in an uphill bid against Gov. Brian Sandoval (R) or in what likely would have been a hard-fought race for LG. The decision is particularly good news for Republicans' prospects of holding the crucial LG seat - a necessary precondition for a 2016 Sandoval Senate bid.
AL-Gov: Elected State Board of Education member Mary Scott Hunter (R) is rumored to be considering a primary challenge to Gov. Robert Bentley. Bentley has never been a favorite of the business community, giving Hunter a strong possible voter and cash base. However, Bentley has moved to the right during his term and looks right now to be in decent shape to ward off a primary bid. Morgan County Commissioner Stacy Lee George is also in the GOP primary race but hasn't gained much traction.
MA-Gov: 2010 nominee Charlie Baker (R) will decide on a gubernatorial bid later this summer. Baker also says (somewhat incredibly) that while he has discussions with Scott Brown, they do not include talk of the Governor's race.
CO-Gov: Look out belooow! A bombshell Q poll shows the once extremely-popular Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) in free-fall, leading Tancredo by just 42-41, SoS Gessler 42-40, and unkown State Sen. Greg Brophy 43-37. Perhaps this race could be more competitive than CW has suggested.
House:
AL-1: US Surgeon General Regina Benjamin has stepped down effective next month, igniting speculation that she may run for Bonner's seat as a Democrat. Benjamin would be about the best possible candidate Dems could get here. But this seat is R+15 and just as Republican down-ticket, so Benjamin would face a daunting battle regardless of the GOP nominee.
UT-4: Saratoga Springs Mayor Mia Love (R) has made it official: she will be back for a rematch with Rep. Jim Matheson (D).
CA-7: 2012 Senate nominee Elizabeth Emken (R) has launched a bid against Rep. Ami Bera (D). Emken may face ex-Rep. Doug Ose (R) in the preliminary election for the swingy seat.
ME-2: A Great Mentioner piece on the wide-open fields on both sides of this race after Michaud's departure for the Governor's race.
State & Local:
AR-LG: Beebe admin official John Burkhalter (D) is running for LG, forgoing a bid for Governor. The article also mentions the musical chairs that seem almost like a done deal at this point: Rep. Tom Cotton (R) is likely to run for Senate, and LG Mark Darr (R) is likely to seek his AR-4 seat.
NE-SD-48: 2010 Gubernatorial nominee Mike Meister (D), who was thinking about runs for either Governor or Senate, will instead run for the legislature in his hometown of Scottsbluff. NE Legislative races are nonpartisan, meaning being a Dem is less of a liability.
El Paso-Mayor: El Paso has a mayoral runoff election tomorrow, with Conservadem car dealer Oscar Leeser, who fell just short of 50% in the first round, looking like the favorite over the more progressive City Councilman Steve Ortega.
Lots of news from the House side of things today. Senate
Massachusetts: Another poll shows Gabriel Gomez behind in his Senate race against Rep. Ed Markey, this time 49-37 from Harper Polling (Of course, that is not the message the Markey campaign is messaging to donors). Nevertheless, a Super PAC, Americans for Progressive Action (the names people think up!), is dropping $700k in ads for Gomez in the homestretch. Governor
New Jersey: I thought Barbara Buono was supposed to be running for Governor? Lately she has been fighting a war within her own party over the next pick for the state Democratic Chairman. In the end, her own pick and the opposition pick of Senate President Steve Sweeney have both droppedout to support Passaic County Chairman John Currie. House
PA-08: Our very own user RockRibbedR wrote up this solid analysis of the Pennsylvania 8th. He argues Rep. FitzPatrick (R) has the advantage this cycle, but a possible open seat in 2016 may provide an opportunity for Democrats in this district. MN-06: Anoka County Commissioner Rhonda Sivarajah (R) announced her campaign yesterday. As we noted in our analysis of this seat, Sivarajah ran as the LG candidate in 2010 with former State Rep. Mary Seifert when Seifert ran against Tom Emmer for the gubernatorial nomination. Emmer ultimately won the nod but lost the election. Now that Emmer is running, the Seifert camp gets a second chance at redemption.
At the same time. we have another potential DFL candidate: Joe Perske, Mayor (nonpartisan) of Sartell (pop. 16,000) in Stearns County. He is "leaning towards running" after having been encouraged by the DCCC, the MN DFL, and 2010 nominee Jim Graves. (Interestingly, Graves also thinks State Sen. John Pederson of the opposite party would make a good Representative for the 6th; Pederson is exploring a run). A teacher, Perske will decide before school starts in the Fall.
PA-12: The Hill has an anonymous source who says "you'll see an announcement" of a campaign for some office "sooner rather than later" from former Rep. Mark Critz (D). The source thinks that office will be the House. He would face Rep. Keith Rothfus (R) in a rematch. Still, after redistricting this seat became much friendlier for Republicans; there is a reason Rothfus won in 2012.
WV-03: The man commonly seen as the GOP's best possible recruit for this seat, State Senator Bill Cole, has declined a run for Congress this cycle against Rep. Nick Rahall (D). Cole is a strong fundraiser, and he appears regularly on the area airwaves advertising his auto dealership. 2012 nominee and former Delegate Rick Snuffer is considering a rematch, and reportedly other candidates are looking at the seat with Cole out.
Miscellaneous
Virginia LG: I feel like holding a press conference where you talk about your weaknesses as a candidate for 45 minutes is not the best use of your time, but that is what our Lt. Gov. nominee, EW Jackson, did yesterday.
Minneapolis Mayor: On Saturday DFL delegates gather to endorse a candidate for Mayor. Only two of the frontrunning Democrats, former Hennepin County Commissioner Mark Andrew and Councilman Gary Schiff, are promising to abide by an endorsement, which requires the vote of 60% of delegates.
Texas legislature: In a victory for LG David Dewhurst, abortion regulation has been added to the special session's agenda by Governor Perry. Dewhurst has tacked to the right in his legislative agenda since his defeat in the US Senate race, as he now faces two primary challengers in Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson and Ag Commissioner Todd Staples.
SD-Sen: Rep. Kristi Noem (R) will not run for Senate, and will instead go for a third term in the House. Noem's decision essentially clears the way for ex-Gov. Mike Rounds (R) to glide to the Senate seat.
MI-Sen: Rep. Mike Rogers (R) will announce his decision regarding a Senate bid on Friday. CW is that he will forgo a bid.
IA-Sen: Sioux City talk radio host Sam Clovis (R) is running for Senate, becoming the fourth "B" to "C" list name in a still-growing GOP field. Though Clovis has little name recognition outside of the Northwest, he is from an area with a dense concentration of GOP primary voters.
MA-Sen: National Republicans have largely stayed out of this race, even as National Dems have engaged heavily. Sort of like last cycle's OR-1 special, I'm inclined to mark that as a win, for this race being a cash sink for National Dems.
NJ-Sen: A nice recap of the CW on the 4 Dem and 2 GOP candidates.
Governor:
IL-Gov: Ex-White House CoS Bill Daley (D) has formed a gubernatorial exploratory committee. If AG Lisa Madigan runs, Daley is likely to be a third wheel in the D contest, but if she passes, he stands a decent shot at toppling the toxic Gov. Pat Quinn in the primary.
PA-Gov: Treasurer Rob McCord (D) has taken the first step to entering the gubernatorial race, setting up a PAC. The long-expected move sets up a clash of 3 SEPA titans with Rep. Allyson Schwartz and State Sen. Mike Stack of Northeast Philly. Complicating matters are a host of lesser names that might hope to capitalize on the brouhaha.
IA-Gov: State Rep. Tyler Olson of Cedar Rapids has resigned his position as the IA Dem party chair. Speculation is Olson is about to pull the trigger on a bid against Branstad.
House:
GA-1: State Rep. Jeff Chapman (R-Brunswick), who you might remember from his time as a bit player in the 2010 gubernatorial primary, becomes the fifth GOP candidate in the race for Kingston's seat. Chapman's path to a runoff likely lies in attempting to run up the score in the southern (non-Savannah metro) portions of the seat.
State & Local:
Detroit-Mayor: Detroit Medical Center CEO and ex-DA Mike Duggan (D) was tossed off the ballot for not meeting the 1-year Detroit residency requirement at the time of his filing for mayor. Unless Duggan wins his appeal, the decision clears the way for Wayne County Sheriff Benny Napoleon (D) to become the sole front-runner for the mayor's office.
AR-LG: Little Rock School Board Pres. Dianne Curry (D) is running for LG, potentially against incumbent Mark Darr (R) - unless Darr seeks a congressional seat that might fall open due to a Cotton or Womack Senate bid.
MA-Treas: Plymouth County Treasurer Tom O'Brien (D) is considering a bid for State Treasurer. The other name connected with this race is State Sen. Barry Finegold (D-Andover).
SC-LG: A good recap on the surprisingly competitive LG's race. Accidental incumbent Glenn McConnell (R) is running for a full term in a do-nothing job he didn't want... and still facing serious primary and general election challenges.
NJ-LD-38: State Rep. Connie Wagner (D-Paramus) has surprisingly dropped her re-election bid. Though she will be replaced on the ballot, her decision deprives Dems of a strong candidate and popular incumbent in one of NJ's 7 battleground districts.
9:34 PM:(shamlet) One more note: in Tulsa, incumbent mayor Dewey Bartlett Jr. (R) and ex-mayor Kathy Taylor (D) appear headed for a November 12 runoff. Taylor is in the lead due to a split in the GOP vote, but well under 50%.
9:02 PM: Twitter is calling it for Herring, which is once again good enough for us. This means both white establishment Dems have turned back challenges from minorities, and that two light blue Senate seats could potentially be up for grabs in early 2014. Elsewhere, it looks like Dance will hold on, and the final targeted Republican will lose to a conservative challenger (for two total upsets). And that will do it for tonight's liveblog!
8:57 PM: Some good news: the GOP picked up a marginal Dem-held seat in the Connecticut House in a special tonight. We also held a seat in the Florida House.
8:54 PM: In the House of Delegates, at least two of the five targeted Republicans have won and at least one (Bev Sherwood of Winchester) has lost. Democrat Rosalyn Dance, a somewhat conservative black legislator, leads her bold progressive challenger by a very small margin.
8:51 PM: With the clusterfrack reporting has been tonight, we'll count the multiple Twitter calls for Ralph Northam as "good enough." VPAP has him leading Chopra 54-46 with 91% in. The AG race is a bit tighter: 52-48 Herring.
8:36 PM: It's 54-46 Northam with 83% in now. Chopra isn't performing as well in NoVa as he needs to be, and he'll lose unless he romps in the remaining Fairfax precincts. Justin Fairfax, OTOH, has closed his deficit to 51-49.
8:25 PM: VPAP's servers are down but they're still well ahead of the AP. On Twitter, they tell us that Northam and Herring both lead 52-48 with 70% in.
8:08 PM: In the House of Delegates, most challenges to incumbents are too close to call, with about half the vote counted in each district. Two Republicans on the outer fringes of NoVa currently trail by small margins, while one of the targeted five, Bill Howell of Stafford, has been called as the winner.
8:02 PM: VPAP, which is aggregating data from county websites, just jumped up to 58% and has Northam at 52% and Herring at 53%. Absurdly low turnout for a state as large as Virginia, especially since its population is so inherently political.
7:57 PM: The AP says 20% is reporting and Northam has 54%. The state BoE says 30% is reporting and Northam has 53%. VPAP says 30% is reporting and Northam has 51%. This is what happens when you let Democrats run primaries.
7:42 PM: Virginia Public Access Project, an indispensable tool for election junkies, is well ahead of both the AP and state board. They have 30% of votes counted, with Northam at 51% and Herring at 53%.
7:40 PM: Both races tighten as we begin to get some results from NoVa and the Hampton Roads. Only about 5% is reporting.
7:15 PM: The first batch of precincts come from Chesterfield County, just outside of Richmond, and break heavily for Chopra and Fairfax. That's bad news for Northam, who's relying on Southern Virginia.
7:00 PM: Polls have just closed here in the Commonwealth. I just got in from filling out the first Democratic ballot of my life, and turnout was very light in Alexandria (#147 in my precinct just before closing. I went for Northam for LG because we could pick off his Senate seat, and Fairfax for AG because I heard from local in-the-know types that the Obenshain camp is rooting for him. Let's see what happens.
Elections have consequences -- from the race for President to the race for one seat on a city council. The political economist Max Weber wrote that the state possesses a monopoly on the legitimate use of force. But in the United States, the state is divided into myriad federal, state, and local entities. And the elections to fill those entities are the products of the fascinating interactions between campaigns, party affiliations, voter turnout, and the media spotlight. Red Racing Horses analyzes those elections -- from a Republican-leaning perspective -- to keep a close eye on the process of electing officials, and to offer our perspective on the election-related issues of the day. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog.
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