77% McCain, 47% Kennedy, 70% Vitter, 70% Dardenne
Rep. Truck Gisclair (D)
Micah Hebert (no party), veteran
If you asked me what I thought the LA GOP's biggest failure was, it is not having a candidate here. Gisclair lost the entire district in 2007, except for the single precinct in Jefferson Parish. That single precinct is what won the election for him. He defeated former two term Rep. Mitch Theriot, who served as a Democrat until he lost in 1999 to a Republican. He ran again in 2003, narrowly losing again. He ran in 2007 as a Republican, barely losing to Gisclair. Gisclair is not entrenched and it is unacceptable he doesn't have a Republican opponent, even Theriot, especially since the district became even more Republican and he would have lost the new district in 2007. His only opponent is 25 year old Micah Hebert, who looks impressive and has a good Marine record, but isn't quite the candidate to defeat an incumbent.
65% McCain, 48% Kennedy, 61% Vitter, 62% Dardenne
Rep. Dee Richard (No Party)
Beck Grabert (R), restaurateur
Richard is relatively seasoned for an independent, serving on the Thibodaux Council before being elected state Rep in 2007 59-41 over a Democrat. Because he is an independent, Republicans would have needed a top tier challenger to win here, because people aren't going to just vote against him because of a (D), because there is none. We did not get that, although Grabert is not a bad candidate. Local businesses are upset with Richard over some votes he has taken, and Grabert is looking to capitalize on that. I'm cautiously optimistic here, so I'll go with Lean I.
71% McCain, 55% Kennedy, 67% Vitter, 67% Dardenne
Greg Miller (R), attorney
Emile Garlepied (R), businessman
Ram Ramachandran (D), former St. Charles Parish Councilman At-Large
Jindal is backing Miller here, as is the state GOP. Ramachandran's name rec from his time as a councilman and later Councilman At-Large means we are likely looking at a runoff between him and Miller. Miller is favored to win the heavily Republican open seat, currently held by Rep. Gary Smith (D), who is term-limited and seeking a state Senate seat. I'm gonna call this one as Lean R.
36% McCain, 28% Kennedy, 34% Vitter, 35% Dardenne
Shane Bailey (D)
OJ Breech (D), businesswoman, 2006 LA-03 candidate
Ali Burl III (D), St. John the Baptist Parish Schoolboard member
Randal Gaines (D), Army Lt. Col, 2007 candidate
Russ Wise (no party), St. John the Baptist Parish School Board Member
Rep. Nickie Monica (R) is retiring after having his district turned into a majority-minority one. Our hold on this district was tenuous anyway: Before redistricting, it had voted for Obama, Landrieu, Melancon, and Fayard. Monica, who was heavily recruited by the NRCC to challenge Melancon in 2010, only won in 2007 because of his popularity as St. John the Baptist Parish President. Its difficult to say who will be in the runoff, but I expect it will be two of Wise, Burl, or Breech. Wise may be favored for a runoff spot because he is the only white candidate. Either Burl or Breech would be favored over him in a runoff, however.
28% McCain, 21% Kennedy, 25% Vitter, 28% Dardenne
Gully Bailey (D), Shell employee
Chris Delpit (D), businessman
Gail Holland (D), attorney
Ed Price (D), Ascension Parish School Board member
Rep. Elton Aubert is leaving after just one term to run for Senate. Price is looking to use his experience and higher name rec to win on Saturday, but that may be tough in a four candidate field, even though they are relatively weak. If it goes to a runoff, Price will likely be in it, but its anyone's guess who will join him.
Rep. Eddie Lambert (R)
77% McCain, 65% Kennedy, 70% Vitter, 76% Dardenne
Eddie Lambert ran unopposed when he was first elected in 2007 and same thing is happening this year.
51% McCain, 36% Kennedy, 42% Vitter, 49% Dardenne
Rep. Karen St. Germaine (D)
Jason Morris (R)
This is a Democratic leaning swing district, so Rep. St. Germaine is favored to win re-election. She has been a relatively loyal vote for Gov. Bobby Jindal, and he has rewarded her with an endorsement, recognizing the difficulty a Republican would have in beating her.
16% McCain, 13% Kennedy, 18% Vitter, 25% Dardenne
Donna Collins-Lewis (D), East Baton Rouge Parish Councilwoman
C. Denise Marcelle (D), East Baton Rouge Parish Councilwoman
Alfred Williams (D), former East Baton Rouge Parish School board member
This is a battle of heavyweights for the seat of term-limited Rep, Michael Jackson (D). It pits two Parish council members and a former school board member who served as a top aide to two-term Baton Rouge Mayor Kip Holden. There will be a runoff, but it would be impossible to predict who will be in it, let alone who would win it.
57% McCain, 48% Kennedy, 53% Vitter, 58% Dardenne
Bob Arnold (R), businessman
Ken Dawson (D), West Feliciana Parish Police Juror
Rob Farmer (R), attorney
Kenny Havard (R), oil & gas company executive
Ronnie Jett (D), former Mayor of Norwood
Rep. Tom McVea (R) is term limited. He originally held this seat as a Democrat in the 1990s, before coming back as a Republican in a 2000 special election. It will be interesting to see if we can hold down this seat without him. A lot will depend on who makes it to the runoff. It will probably be one Democrat and one Republican. If the Democrat is Dawson, who is African-American, Republicans should have a greater chance at winning this seat. Any of the three Republicans could make it to the runoff in this crowded race, but Havard and Farmer are more likely to get there than Arnold. If Jett makes the runoff with one of the Republicans, it will be a much tighter race. He is a local Democrat, the type who can win here, with the healthy black vote and some white Democrats. However, the significant black population in this district makes me think that Dawson will make it to the runoff with either Havard or Farmer. Lean R
23% McCain, 19% Kennedy, 22% Vitter, 27% Dardenne
Rep. Dalton Honore (D)
Barbara Thomas (R), community activist
Hillery Godfred Johnson (no party), contractor
Ronald Rodgers (D), University of Phoenix employee
Rep. Honore was elected in a 2010 special election to replace the late Rep. Avon Honey. The East Baton Rouge Parish Democratic Party and several labor groups have endorsed Democratic challenger Ronald Rodgers. School choice groups are backing black Republican Barbara Thomas. School choice is very popular within the black community, especially here. Thomas is running a very strong campaign for a Republican here, and I would not rule out her making the runoff with either Honore or Rodgers. If she does, she will probably lose to either one, but she has an outside chance of upsetting them. Her work in the community over the past 25 years has given her a strong connection to the black community here that will propel her to a much higher than average performance for a Republican. I'll call this one as Likely D, just because of Thomas's strong campaign and the Democratic infighting.
79% McCain, 66% Kennedy, 72% Vitter, 76% Dardenne
Valarie Hodges (R), member of LA GOP Executive Committee
Barry Elkins (R), attorney, teacher
Rep. Bodi White (R) is vacating this seat to run for a new Senate seat. Republican Valarie Hodges is heavily favored to win. She has been endorsed by Jindal, Vitter, The Tea Party of Louisiana, the Oil and Gas Industry PAC, and Tony Perkins, who himself is a former LA State Rep.
76% McCain, 63% Kennedy, 71% Vitter, 76% Dardenne
Rep. Clif Richardson (R)
Nothing to see here.
77% McCain, 67% Kennedy, 72% Vitter, 79% Dardenne
Rep. Hunter Greene (R)
Rep. Hunter Greene is running for Speaker of the House next year, but he is not a leading contender. Rep. Erich Ponti (R) and Rep. Joel Robideaux (R) have much better chances.
19% McCain, 18% Kennedy, 20% Vitter, 26% Dardenne
Rep. Pat Smith (D)
Lorri Burgess (D), former East Baton Rouge Councilwoman and Mayor Pro Tem
Burgess is running because she's looking for a new job. Smith is Chair of the Legislative Black Caucus, so she is strong in this district. Burgess must be considered a threat to win because of her high profile, but voters here have no reason to vote out Smith, and Burgess has given them no reason to or to elected herself.
62% McCain, 53% Kennedy, 58% Vitter, 70% Dardenne
Rep. Steve Carter (R)
Nothing to see here either. This district covers part of LSU's campus.
72% McCain, 61% Kennedy, 67% Vitter, 76% Dardenne
Rep. Erich Ponti (R)
My district! Rep. Erich Ponti is one of the leading contenders to become the next Speaker of the House, and, to me, looks most likely to get Jindal's support for the job. He has been loyal to Jindal, often handling legislation for him. He received much praise from both sides of the aisle earlier this year for creating and whipping vote for the 11th hour Congressional redistricting map, along with Sen. Neil Riser (R). Ponti is also a likely leading contender for LA-06 in 2014, if Rep. Cassidy runs for Senate. If Ponti becomes House Speaker and Sen. Dan Claitor (R), who is seeking the job, becomes Senate President, I would be represented by the House Speaker and Senate President.
Rep. Franklin Foil (R)
Greg Baldwin (no party)
Foil faces nominal opposition from an unknown no party challenger. He will be easily re-elected.
84% McCain, 70% Kennedy, 77% Vitter, 78% Dardenne
Rep. J. Rogers Pope (R)
This is a boring stretch.
37% McCain, 28% Kennedy, 38% Vitter, 37% Dardenne
Rep. Jon Bel Edwards (D)
I Can Duncan (no party)
Rep. Bel Edwards' only opponent is an independent who goes by the name "I Can". Nuff said.
75% McCain, 58% Kennedy, 73% Vitter, 70% Dardenne
Rep. Steve Pugh (R)
David Englade (R)
Steve Pugh is a solid conservative who has been endorsed by Jindal. Englade is a total unknown. Pugh is heavily favored to win.
79% McCain, 62% Kennedy, 77% Vitter, 77% Dardenne
Rep. Scott Simon (R)
Simon is unopposed in this safe district.
64% McCain, 47% Kennedy, 62% Vitter, 62% Dardenne
Rep. Harold Ritchie (D)
This is another district where there are hardly any registered Republicans, making it hard to find a candidate. Ritchie is popular here and we would have had trouble beating him anyway. We should be able to get this one in 2015 when Ritchie is term-limited.
Rep. Kevin Pearson (R)
No partisan data available
Pearson is running unopposed in his heavily Republican district, where Republicans running statewide traditionally receive over 70%.
77% McCain, 64% Kennedy, 76% Vitter, 78% Dardenne
Rep. John Schroder (R)
Another unopposed Republican in a heavily Republican district.
80% McCain, 59% Kennedy, 76% Vitter, 76% Dardenne
Rep. Kirk Talbot (R)
77% McCain, 59% Kennedy, 76% Vitter, 77% Dardenne
Rep. Tony Ligi (R)
This is one of the wealthier districts in Louisiana, containing some of the richest suburbs of Jefferson Parish along Lake Pontchartrain.
75% McCain, 54% Kennedy, 75% Vitter, 74% Dardenne
Rep. Joey Lopinto (R)
Lopinto is popular and he was easily elected to his first term in 2007 over the Glenn Lee, nephew of popular late Sheriff Harry Lee with 59%. This is the district where I grew up and spent the first 26 years of my life. Lopinto and I went to the same Catholic grammar school, 3 blocks from my parent's home. If I ever have a political career, this is where its at. Lee 2019!! (No, I am not related to the Sheriff, but, if it helps, I can say I am!)
70% McCain, 50% Kennedy, 63% Vitter, 60% Dardenne
Kevin Hull (D), electrician
Laura O'Halloran (R), Tea Party activist
Clay Schexnayder (R), small business owner
Don Wheat (R)
Gillis Windham (R), mayor of Killian
This is David Vitter and David Duke's former district number, although the district has been relocated from Metairie to Livingston Parish in redistricting. Gillis Windham is probably a favorite to make the runoff, with his name rec from 5 terms as Mayor, his fundraising advantage, and the endorsement from the Tea Party of Louisiana. Who will join him is the question. O'Halloran has national and local Tea Party ties, serving on the Tea Party Patriots National Council and founding the Livingston Parish tea party. I'd bet on a heated tea party feud in the runoff between her and Windham, although Schexnayder could also make it in.
74% McCain, 55% Kennedy, 72% Vitter, 73% Dardenne
Rep. Cameron Henry (R)
Henry, who was a top aide to then state Rep. Steve Scalise before his election to the state Senate in 2007, was easily elected to Scalise's open seat in 2007. He is running unopposed this year. At only 36, he is a strong candidate for Scalise's seat should he vacate it, and would likely get Scalise's support. Fun fact: Scalise and I went to the same high school, while Henry went to another one. These two schools happen to hate each others guts.
34% McCain, 22% Kennedy, 30% Vitter, 29% Dardenne
Rep. Robert Billiot (D)
Kyle Green, Jr (D), son of former state Rep.
Rep. Billiot, who is white, is facing a challenge from the son of former Rep. Kyle Mark Green, who is black. This district is 55% black after redistricting, and Billiot was narrowly elected to the 2007 open seat of now Sen. John Alario (R). He could be in trouble if black turnout is high enough, although he has a history of winning over black voters in his campaigns for Mayor of Westwego.
71% McCain, 47% Kennedy, 64% Vitter, 62% Dardenne
Rep. Pat Connick (R)
Connick, the only Republican elected from the Jefferson/Orleans Parish Connick family, is unopposed. Yes, Connick is Harry Connick, Jr's first cousin. Harry's father was DA of Orleans Parish, his mother served on the LA Supreme Court, and his uncle, Pat's father, is the Jefferson Parish DA.
54% McCain, 39% Kennedy, 53% Vitter, 52% Dardenne
Bryan Adams (R), Terrytown fire chief
Stephen Leonard (R), Realtor
Rep. Ricky Templet (R) is leaving after one term to run for Jefferson Parish council. This seat is actually D+5 (based on Lt. Gov race), but no Democrat filed for it, so we will hold onto this seat. Adams is the favorite, although the race has been nasty at times.
71% McCain, 59% Kennedy, 68% Vitter, 71% Dardenne
Chris Broadwater (R), Director of the Office of Workers' Compensation
Ivory Dyson (D)
George Holton (R), former Tangipahoa Parish Councilman
Joel Morgan (R), businessman
David Ridder (no party)
This is currently the seat of House Speaker Jim Tucker (R), in New Orleans. That seat has been dismantled, and recreated in quickly growing Tangipahoa Parish. Gov. Jindal has backed Chris Broadwater, who has served in his administration. This has helped with his fundraising and organization, which will likely land him in the runoff. Holton, who has been out of office for 11 years, seems like the most likely person to take the next slot, as a former President of the Parish Council. Jindal would probably campaign hard for Broadwater in a runoff, which has not always been a good thing, despite his popularity.
29% McCain, 20% Kennedy, 26% Vitter, 26% Dardenne
Rep. Girod Jackson (D)
Girod Jackson, backed by Jindal, originally drew two opponents, a Democrat and a Republican. Both withdrew, and Jackson was re-elected without opposition.
76% McCain, 56% Kennedy, 67% Vitter, 72% Dardenne
Johnny Berthelot (R), former Mayor of Gonzales
Gary Lacombe (D)
Coral Lambert (R), educator
Berthelot, who was elected Mayor of Gonzales, one of the fastest growing cities in Louisiana, in 1984 and ran unopposed for every re-election until his retirement in 2008, is heavily favored to win this seat. Incumbent Rep. Mert Smiley is retiring to run for Assessor in Ascension Parish.
81% McCain, 68% Kennedy, 79% Vitter, 82% Dardenne
Rep. Tim Burns (R)
Pat Phillips (R)
Rep. Tim Burns, who lost the runoff for the Republican nomination in the 2008 LA-01 special election, faces nominal opposition for re-election. The PA Tim Burns and LA Tim Burns should both run for Congress again, and LA HD 22 candidate Tim Murphy should run for LA-05.
72% McCain, 54% Kennedy, 70% Vitter, 69% Dardenne
Rep. Greg Comer (R)
Ron Eldridge (R), tax expert
Its difficult to know where Eldridge is coming from here. He's running on to Comer's right on taxes, when Comer is already pretty conservative, but he's also sucking up to teacher's unions. Comer has Jindal's backing in this very conservative district, so he should be fine.
14% McCain, 11% Kennedy, 15% Vitter, 20% Dardenne
Rep. Walt Leger III (D)
This uptown New Orleans district was made majority-black in redistricting, but white Rep. Leger, who performed well in the black parts of his old district in 2007, is running unopposed.
51% McCain, 37% Kennedy, 51% Vitter, 52% Dardenne
Rep. Tom Wilmott (R)
Wilmott is lucky to be unopposed in this district. It contains many of the black, Hispanic, and blue-collar parts of Kenner. Before redistricting, this was a seat won by Obama, Fayard, Landrieu, and Vitter only won it by 42 votes. This is one we need to worry about if Democrats can find a good candidate.
13% McCain, 10% Kennedy, 16% Vitter, 20% Dardenne
Rep. Helena Moreno (D)
Moreno, who lost to Bill Jefferson in the 2008 LA-02 runoff, was elected in a special election last year to replace then Speaker Pro Tem Karen Carter Peterson (who lost to Jefferson in 2006) when she was elected to the state Senate. She beat 2010 mayoral candidate James Perry 56-44, after revelations about his driving record. She won based on strong turnout among the white liberals who live here, as the district was 47% black, and Perry is also black. In redistricting, it was made majority black, but Moreno, who is white, is running unopposed. She is popular and well known in the area from her days as an anchorwoman.
66% McCain, 48% Kennedy, 64% Vitter, 67% Dardenne
Rep. John Labruzzo (R)
Rep. Nick Lorusso (R)
The incumbent vs incumbent battle is one of the most competitive on the ballot. Outspoken, persistent welfare reformer (he has proposed multiple bills to pay women on welfare to be sterilized and welfare recipients drug tested) Rep. John Labruzzo, David Vitter's successor, and Rep. Nick Lorusso saw their districts merged in redistricting. The two districts used to meet at the Jefferson/Orleans Parish line, along the now-infamous 17th street canal, where the levee broke during Katrina, flooding the wealthy New Orleans neighborhood of Lakeview. Lakeview is the Republican part of New Orleans, while the Jefferson Parish side of the canal contains some of the most Republican precincts in the state. The new district favors Lorusso, who is close to Speaker Jim Tucker and Sen. David Vitter. Vitter is personally backing Lorusso, although his LCRM is neutral. Rep. Steve Scalise is backing his former colleague (Scalise and Lorusso never served together) Labruzzo. There is noticeably more of Lorusso's old district here. I am personally backing Labruzzo. He is my aunt's neighbor and friend, and I have met him on several occasions. Judging just by sings (I know signs don't vote), Labruzzo is doing surprisingly well, as there are more Labruzzo signs in Lorusso's part of the district, and very few Lorusso signs in Labruzzo's part. I like both of them, and either will be a great Rep. I kind of want Lorusso to lose so he will be more likely to run for Orleans Parish council in 2014, in the traditionally Republican leaning seat he lives in.
86% McCain, 65% Kennedy, 76% Vitter, 75% Dardenne
Sherman Mack (R), attorney
Matthew Mitchell (no party)
Lonnie Watts (D), retired AT&T employee
District 95 was an uptown New Orleans seat, held by Rep. Walker Hines, who switched from D to R to run for SoS, before dropping out. Even if his district was not dismantled, he was not going to win re-election as a Republican in a district that gave Dardenne only 24%. The district was remade in Livingston Parish. Republican Sherman Mack will waltz into this seat tomorrow.
35% McCain, 28% Kennedy, 36% Vitter, 37% Dardenne
Eric Martin (other), former St. Martinville Mayor
Vincent Alexander (other), community organizer
Terry Landry (D), retired Superintendent of the Louisiana State Police
"Shoe-Do" Lewis (D), New Iberia Councilman
Richard Potier (D)
Nary Smith (D), former police officer
District 96 was a majority black seat in New Orleans, held by Rep. Juan LaFonta, who lost the 2010 LA-02 primary to Richmond and later endorsed Joe Cao. The new district is a majority-black seat snaking through Acadiana to pick up black voters. The race for this seat is complicated. Former St. Martinville Mayor Eric Martin, a white independent will probably make it to the runoff with a black Democrat. Its difficult to predict who would win the runoff, as Martin has some popularity in the black community. Vincent Alexander apparently is qualified to be President, so I don't really see why he's in this race.
10% McCain, 8% Kennedy, 10% Vitter, 13% Dardenne
Rep. Jared Brossett (D)
Brossett is running unopposed in one of the most Democratic districts in LA.
30% McCain, 23% Kennedy, 32% Vitter, 37% Dardenne
Rep. Neil Abramson (D)
Fenn French (R), businessman
Despite the heavy Democratic lean of this district, it is picked by many for a possible upset. Abramson is a relatively noncontroversial incumbent, but Republicans have a strong recruit in businessman Fenn French. He has been endorsed by Gov. Bobby Jindal, Treasurer John Kennedy, and, more impressively, black Democratic Sen. Ed Murray, who enjoys popularity across the political spectrum for his willingness to work with anyone. I'm not seeing it happen for us here, but I won't be shocked if it does. Lean/Likely D.
5% McCain, 4% Kennedy, 5% Vitter, 8% Dardenne
Rep. Wesley Bishop (D)
Samuel Cowart (D)
Wesley Bishop and Rep. Charmaine Marchand Stiaes were merged put together in Marchand Stiaes 99th district after redistricting. Bishop easily won a three-way race for district 101 this year to replace US Rep. Cedric Richmond. Marchand Stiaes chose to retire rather than run against Rep. Bishop, who ran an exceptionally strong campaign in district 101. He faces only nominal opposition in his run for a full term.
6% McCain, 4% Kennedy, 6% Vitter, 6% Dardenne
Rep. Austin Badon (D)
Badon is running unopposed, after dropping out of the 2010 New Orleans Mayoral election and losing an election for Orleans Parish Council. He has Jindal's support, despite being the lead opponent to one of Jindal's biggest priorities, the merging of UNO and SUNO. Maybe trying to win him over?
30% McCain, 24% Kennedy, 30% Vitter, 36% Dardenne
Harold Williams (R) Chairman of East Baton Rouge Republican Party
Sarah Holliday (R), businesswoman
Tiffany Foxworth (D), attorney
Jonathan Holloway Sr (D), attorney
Ted James (D), former Blanco aide
Fred Reed (D), businessman
Republican Harold Williams is running with support from Jindal and school choice groups. School choice is a big issue in the black community. A Republican can usually count on 25% of the vote here, so Williams may be able to make the runoff, if Holliday does not take too many votes from him. Working against him is the Democratic establishment coalescing around Ted James, with the support of the unions, Mary Landrieu, Cedric Richmond, and even Howard Dean's Democracy for America. Williams needs Reed and Foxworth to peel of a significant number of blacks from James. In a runoff, this would become a battleground for school choice groups. I'm calling it Lean/Likely D because of Williams strong campaign.
25% McCain, 18% Kennedy, 24% Vitter, 26% Dardenne
Rep. Jeff Arnold (D)
Carlos Williams (D)
Arnold, who is white, has easily won this majority black district twice. In redistricting, the black % went down, so he should have even less to worry about this year.
66% McCain, 37% Kennedy, 53% Vitter, 53% Dardenne
Michael Bayham (R), former St. Bernard Parish Councilman
Ray Garofalo (R), attorney
Chad Lauga (D), oil drilling supervisor
Cullen Tonry (D), attorney
This one is destined for a runoff. Bayham has name rec from his time as a councilman and previous runs for this seat. He also has the coveted Alliance for Good Government endorsement. Garofalo has been on TV and radio for weeks though, driving up his name rec and positives. I'd expect a runoff between the two. The seat is currently held by first term Rep. Reed Henderson (D) who is retiring. Likely R pick-up.
73% McCain, 58% Kennedy, 71% Vitter, 72% Dardenne
Paul Hollis (R), coin dealer
Christopher Trahan (R), businessman
Hollis may have an edge here in name rec, as the son of popular late Sen. Ken Hollis and step-son of former Jefferson Parish interim Councilwoman Diane Hollis. Either would make a great Representative and be a solid vote for Jindal. Trahan has more endorsements, including one from Treasurer John Kennedy and the Tea Party of Louisiana. This is currently Rep. Nita Hutter's (R) district. Hutter is term-limited and challenging Sen. AG Crowe (R). Her district was merged with HD 103, and recreated in St. Tammany Parish.
57% McCain, 41% Kennedy, 49% Vitter, 52% Dardenne
Rocky Aseveda (R), M.D.
Jay Friedman (D), former Plaquemines Parish Councilman
Chris Leopold (R), entrepreneur
Mark Magee (R), contractor
This seat is currently held by term-limited Independent Ernest Wooten. Wooten was a Republican until 2010, when he became an Independent and ran for US Senate against David Vitter. We are probably looking at a runoff between Aseveda, who has been endorsed by Plaquemines Parish President and Lt. Gov candidate Billy Nungesser and Democrat Jay Friedman. Magee is a perennial candidate, and Leopold, who announced an LA-03 run in 2010 but never officially filed, is a dark horse here. He has the Alliance for Good Government endorsement, which is always helpful, especially for GOTV, and could push him into the runoff spot. Likely R pick-up.