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Morning Political Roundup for November 8, 2011

by: James_Nola

Tue Nov 08, 2011 at 08:00:00 AM EST


Happy Election Day!!

President

Cain: Bob Vander Plaats thinks the latest sexual harassment allegations against Cain are a "tipping point" for his campaign.

More Cain: Cain will hold a press conference today at 5 PM ET in Arizona to address the allegations. Anthony Weiner thread, 2.0?

Romney: Romney was back in Iowa for the 2nd time in two weeks as he continues to wage an under the radar effort to win the caucuses and effectively seal the nomination on January 3rd.

Gingrich: Here's something you didn't expect to hear: Gingrich has the largest organization in South Carolina. He seems to be banking on a stronger than expected showing in Iowa making him the de facto anti-Romney by SC. Mitt Romney, who may end up looking to seal the deal in SC, has the smallest staff there.

Santorum: This is a pretty huge get for Santorum in Iowa. He has landed the support of conservative activist Chuck Laudner, a well versed Iowa operative, especially in social conservative circles. He is also a former Chief of Staff to Rep. Steve King. Bachmann announced the endorsement of Laudner this summer, but he quickly said he was staying neutral because of his work for Rep. King. LOL @ Bachmann.  

Iowa: The Iowa Independent has its monthly power rankings up. The rankings are based on who they think would win if the caucuses were held tonight. Ron Paul is in first, with Cain 2nd, Romney 3rd, Santorum 4th, and Gingrich 5th.

Polling: A new NBC/WSJ poll shows Romney re-taking the lead nationally, leading Cain 28-27, with Gingrich in 3rd at 13%, and Paul and Perry tied with 10%. Obama leads Romney 49-43 and Cain 53-38. In a three-way with Ron Paul, Obama leads Romney and Paul 44-32-18. With Bloomberg, Obama leads Romney and Bloomberg 44-35-13. Bachmann is at 4%, with Santorum at 2%. Mr. 1% is down to 0%.

Senate

California: Briefly yesterday, Rep. Devin Nunes (R) floated himself as a potential Senate candidate, ripping into Dianne Feinstein and airing TV ads against her in his district. His chief of staff quickly denied that Nunes was considering a Senate bid, saying he is running for re-election.

Maryland: Eric Wargotz, the 2010 Senate nominee, announced that he will not run again in 2012. I wonder if he would primary Andy Harris?

House

CA-?? From Craig Huey's Twitter: "After prayer, fasting and seeking wise counsel, I've decided to run for office in 2012. Details coming." Hopefully its not CA-37, as we really need to unify around Kuykendall there, and we already have another strong Republican in that race.

MA-09: Rep. Bill Keating (D) wasted no time in announcing that he will run in the open 9th, rather than in the 8th against Rep. Stephen Lynch, where he lives.

MA-06: A big recruiting coup for us here. Former Senate Minority leader and 2010 Lt. Gov nominee, Richard Tiesi, said yesterday he will challenge ethically challenged Rep. John Tierney. The new 6th district gave 58% to Brown and 50% to Baker in 2010 (h/t MerrimackMan). With Tierney's issues, and Tisei's moderate reputation, this is very winnable. Tisei, if elected, would be the first openly gay Republican elected to Congress.

ND-AL: State Rep. Kim Koppelman is joining the field for this seat. Public Service Commissioners Kevin Cramer and Brian Kalk, as well as Rep. Bette Grande are already in the race, although none have emerged as a clear front runner. Treasurer Kelly Schmidt has the ability to become a clear front runner if she chooses to run.

Redistricting

NC Redistricting: The North Carolina legislature approved a fix to a glitch in the Congressional map that affected hundreds of thousands of citizens. The change does not affect any of the districts in a meaningful way.  

James_Nola :: Morning Political Roundup for November 8, 2011
Tags: (All Tags)
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ND-Sen
Heitkamp's in officially. http://www.rollcall.com/news/H...

R - MD-7

Does this move this from
Likely R to Lean R or Leans/Likely R? I can't decide, not knowing much about Heitkamp's strengths.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college), MS-03 (weekend)

[ Parent ]
ND-SEN
Goes from Likely R to Lean R.  I would not quarrel with people who wish to leave it at Likely R until we see some polling however.

If Republicans had a Hoeven like candidate it would have been Safe R, but Berg is not Hoeven.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
Nobody knows Heitkamp's strengths
she's been out of the game for too long. It's quite hard to say. I'd put it somewhere near PA, CT, or IN in terms of competitiveness - an upset is possible but not likely. I'd call it Leans R just to be safe, but about as close to Likely R as you can get.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Tisei - "First openly gay Republican elected to Congress?"
So Kolbe and Gundersen don't count?

If he were to win, Tisei would be the first Republican to be openly gay at the time of his initial election to Congress, but not the first openly gay Republican to win a Congressional election.  


Thats what I meant


Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
For the record:
Tisei is a liberal, not a moderate. Moderate = Simmons and Castle, Snowe and Murkowski.

25, Male, R, NY-10

How is he in relation
to Brown's voting record? Aren't these the only types of republicans who can get elected in MA currently?  

22, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Matt 6:25-34    

[ Parent ]
Well
Brown is definitely not a liberal.
We don't necessarily need liberals if that is all we can get. Moderates yes. We have a Republican party for a reason. For a certain ideology, and we can take some on the edges to help out.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Liberal v. Moderate
I'm not sure how a liberal Republican would vote, but Snowe, Shays, et al have lifetime ACU scores in the 40s and 50s. The ACU is harsh on votes but no member of the Connecticut delegation has a lifetime rating above 10. Lynch is the high in Massachusetts at 12.69. I'll take a Republican in the 30s rather than a Democrat at 7. Mike Castle had some low scores but his lifetime number was 51.69. I don't think any Republican would ever vote within 30-35 points of a Democrat he replaces. I'll take that.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Agree to a point . . .
UNLESS Tisei goes on national media on a regular basis and bad mouths more conservative Republicans.  That would create a GOP dissension meme that would undercut Republicans.  Plus, it might help the Dems paint some GOPers as "too extreme" because "even a Republican like Tisei" opposes their policies, views, policies, etc.  

So having a liberal Mass Republican is not necessarily a unmitigated benefit.  

But if the House majority depended on it . . .  


[ Parent ]
I hear ya
Tisei isn't a bombthrower though. Not the best in charisma department, and tends to be a consensus kind of legislator. He wouldn't pull the Chuck Hagel routine.

Perhaps on DOMA and Don't Ask, Don't Tell, but even there, I don't imagine him being front and center. Certaintly wasn't during the Gay Marriage debate in Massachusetts.

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
Tisei
has been a pretty loyal soldier from my experience - you don't register as a Republican in Mass if you don't believe in the party a lot. He'll also be operating in the shadow of Romney and Brown and have no reason to publicly go against two people he knows well personally just for the heck of it. I can't see him pulling stunts like Murkowski or Lugar on a regular basis.

The one exception to that could be LGBT issues. But there is enough of a minority in the R caucus that's somewhat liberal on those issues to mean that Tisei is not liable to be the only dissenter on any bill that realistically comes before congress.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
You make a good point
On being an R in Mass.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Tisei
Well how liberal is he?  Is he just Liberal on Gay Rights and nothing else?

Is he a Fiscal Conservative, A hawk?

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
He's Pro-Choice and Pro-Gay Marriage
Would have supported repeal of Don't Ask, Don't Tell.

When asked if he feels out of place with the Republican Party, he responded "No, I feel there are a lot of fair-minded Republicans" and then went on to criticize Obama. That's his style. He's a team player.

He's right on center of economics. He was big on balancing budgets, and getting tax rates in Mass back to 5% on Income and Sales. That's all I know. He probably supports SS and Medicare wholeheartedly and would never doubt their constitutionality, but would follow the Republicans in reforming them because he's a "good government" type.

He's not your typical Republican at all. Not sure what the national party would think of him, but honestly, he's probably running thinking he's got a shot, and Romney (A friend of his) will be in Washington come 2012.

No clue what his foreign policy would be like.  

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
Scratch That
Tisei endorsed Guiliani in 2008. Not sure how close he is to Romney.  

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
That's strange
He was probably annoyed at Mitt's pandering to SoCons in 2008.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
There was a lot of bad blood
Between Romney and the Senate Caucus. Romney actually got in a physical altercation once with Former Senator Brian Lees during the ConCon.

Brown was really the only Romney loyalist in the Senate.

Its quite odd. Usually one of the two GOP legislative caucuses is a collaborationist one, ie. one that values its cooperation with the Democratic super-majority over futile gestures to help the Governor's profile.

Until 2004 that was the Senate, though the House GOP and Romney feuded during the 2004 campaign over its support for Finneran. This came to a head when Finneran quit that fall, and Mike Rodgers, a Conservadem tried to line up GOP support. Rumors said that he would have had enough Democrats with 20 or so Republican votes, but Romney vetoed any deal leaving a lot of bad blood.

Tisei's problem was the same one Lees had. Romney, especially post-2004 would pull a lot of stunts he knew would be reversed by the legislature, and would veto dozens of bills at once. This wasted everyone's time and created a lot of personal resentment, which is why Giuliani and McCain had a ready base of support.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Thoughts and Admonishments
CA-??: I hope that Huey runs in Waxman's seat. he might hold down his margins and maybe force the expenditure of a little campaign cash.

MA-06: I hope that Tiesi gets a lot of support. If Brown can hold on and the MAGOP can pick up at least one congressional seat, maybe they can start to build a better bench and brand. Does anyone have Obama/McCain numbers for the new 6th, or did I miss those on the map thread?

More Cain: I know that you guys want the site to do well, and that the Weiner thread was probably our greatest to date, but do we really want the GOP presidential primary to get more really bad press just to help our comment count? Whatever you think of Cain, I think it's better for the overall campaign for the press conference to be as devoid of negative fireworks as possible. If something crazy happens, cover it, even laugh about it if it's funny, but please don't wish for it.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college), MS-03 (weekend)


*Tisei


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college), MS-03 (weekend)

[ Parent ]
it was 57-41 i believe
winnable for the GOP with Tisei, but still Lean D, in my opinion

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Wow, that's a huge piece of evidence against her
I hate to tear anyone down, but it's quite strange that she'd seek Cain out, hug him, and take a flirty photo with him last month.

That doesn't mean he didn't harass her 14 years ago. It just undercuts her case, considering how traumatic she alleges it was.

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)


[ Parent ]
Of course
Allred didn't charge a penny. http://news.yahoo.com/cain-acc...
As much as Cain is a creep, these people are even bigger publicity who*es.

25, Male, R, NY-10

Wording
Worst possible word that could be used to describe them I think, common saying or not.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Tisei (For SOTS)
You seem to really care about diversifying the party to broaden appeal.
Does a Tisei candidacy fit under that categorization?

Not really.
If he were to get elected, and then a liberal made the claim to me that the GOP wanted to kill all homosexuals or something crazy like that, then I'd probably cite his election as contrary proof. Other than that, not really, especially because he's apparently liberal, not moderate or conservative.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college), MS-03 (weekend)

[ Parent ]
Tisei is not a liberal
He may not be a socon, but he's definitely a fiscon.

[ Parent ]
That's what I thought, but
MosheM said unthread that he was a liberal.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college), MS-03 (weekend)

[ Parent ]
Tisei
Uh... MosheM has a strong passion and focus on social issues. To him, Tisei may be a liberal. To most people, Tisei is a fiscal conservative and a social liberal.

If he were a liberal, it would have been so easy for him to be a Democrat in Massachusetts.


[ Parent ]
Tisei sounds about as "liberal" as me
A pro-gay marriage fiscal conservative? Hell yeah.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Libertarians
I don't know if Tisei is libertarian, but sometimes libertarians are misidentified as socially liberal. I don't believe the state should recognize either gay or traditional marriage but if they are going to insist on it I have no issue with gay marriage. (The supporters' tactics are another story) I don't push for gay marriage, but by not opposing it that becomes my position.

There are many libertarians who are pro-choice, finding the government making such a decision abhorrent.

Liberals believe in major government involvement. I believe that advocating for no government involvement makes me pretty far to the right even if people think some of my stances are left wing as a result.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Agreed
Social liberal =/= Libertarian.

Since Tisei endorsed Giuliani, he's probably not in any way libertarian.  Giuliani's about as far from libertarian as you can get, especially on foreign policy which is one of the biggest, if not the biggest, issue for most libertarians.  He'd probably be a standard moderate Republican that's slightly more liberal on social issues.  I doubt anyone will be confusing him with Amash or Rohrabacher.

Saint Paul (MN-4)  


[ Parent ]
Foreign Policy?
I don't think there's any "most" when it comes to libertarians. From my experience, however, foreign policy is the least important thing to libertarians. When your philosophy is "government get your hands out of my business" then you're primary concern is individual liberty. I find fiscal policy is the most important.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Yep
There is too much confusion of the concept of libertarianism with isolationism these days.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Thank you
Libertarians believe that people should have the freedom to do what they want as long as no one else gets hurt. This isn't freedom for me. It's freedom for everyone. If liberals could have their pubic option without impacting my life and the lives of others, I'd be all for it.

There's certainly debate on when, whether, and how the U.S. should get involved overseas, but I can't see how not caring about freedom in other countries would be okay. I'm tired of people confusing all of Ron Paul's stances with libertarians.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Exactly
Just because Ron Paul is the most well-known "libertarian" doesn't mean he gets to define what the libertarian position is on issues. I don't see how isolationism is necessarily a "libertarian" position anyway.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
I would suppose it is because interventionist policies
are driven by the government? I mean, Ron Paul would probably if he were faced with a situation were he needed to fight a war advocate for outsourcing all of the USAF to Xe, and then then letting the free market conduct the war against Iran.  

[ Parent ]
Paul's foreign policy
Nobody gets to define libertarian positions. The heart of it is that you can make your own choices.

I'm not sure I follow your joke, but Ron Paul believes that our military overseas interferes with, rather than ensures, liberty in these countries. If you don't think the U.S. government should be involved in our lives, you might think it shouldn't be involved with theirs.

Ron Paul would only support utilizing the U.S. military if 1) we were attacked. We'd do only what we'd need to do to defend ourselves and make sure we're not attacked again. 2) they were interfering with the free market. If he did get involved he wouldn't farm it out. If you want to do something, do it yourself.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
SOTS
What makes MosheM's word absolute political truth? Just because he says someone is liberal doesn't mean the person is. You should look up Tisei's record; it speaks for itself.

(MosheM: this isn't taking a shot at you. Nor you, SOTS, but I'm telling you to look up Tisei's record before you rush to judgment)


[ Parent ]
From Experience here in Mass
Tisei is considered right of center on economics, and left of center on social issues.

Tierney on the other hand is hard left on economics, and hard left on social issues. Always votes the party line.

Take your choice. This district will not elect the 100% ACU Conservative, we were barely able to keep a 62% ACU Republican here in the 1990's (Blute was a little better than Torkildsen at 70%). It's all better than Tierney's lifetime ACU rating of 3. That's right, 3.

I guess the one area we need to find out about Tisei is his positions on foreign policy. Not critical, and there seems to be more diversity in the GOP on foreign policy than ever before anyway.

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
I'm relying on my fellow commenters for good information.
Oftentimes, I get my best info on this site. I'm at school, so I don't have time to comb Tsiei's voting record or play 20 Issue Questions with you and MosheM. I'm not just blindly believing what people tell me, but I trust my fellow commenters. If you have a different opinion, make your case, and MosheM can make his as well. I couldn't respond very quickly to your reply because my school does not allow cellphones to be on during school and I don't have a laptop (you can't use the internet here anymore with those anyway). I have to either use a school computer during a free period (which is what I'm doing now) or find a place away from teachers and use my phone with the possibility of being caught and getting a disciplinary violation, so forgive me if I'm so untimely with my response that you have to post a second reply.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college), MS-03 (weekend)

[ Parent ]
Calm down
I posted a second response because I didn't cover enough with my first.

[ Parent ]
Low turnout in VA
http://www2.timesdispatch.com/...
Good, bad?

25, Male, R, NY-10

Its been 20 years since VA & NJ have had the combination
of new legislative seats and no Gov/statewide races.  So yes turnout will be low.  In 2010 we saw low turnout in NJ & VA as there was no US senate or other statewide races.  The GOP did well in NJ & VA in 2010.  Polls in NJ & VA show that the GOP is more motivated to vote this time then the Ds.   So I think this year a low turnout in VA & NJ would favor the GOP.  

That's my thinking as of right now.  


[ Parent ]
Please
link to the polls

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Low Turnout Should Favor Republicans
Esp. in VA, I'd think.  

[ Parent ]
Lol
jimgeraghty:
If every Not-Mitt will get their chance to be flavor of the month, you want to go last, closest to actual voting. Good news for Huntsman?

25, Male, R, NY-10

The monthly flavors have all been Tea Party conservatives
Huntsman is no Tea Party conservative. He wants New Hampshire Independents and they've been with Romney since November 5, 2008.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Mississippi
It's the Northeast that decides this. It's the Northeast that decides this. It's the Northeast that decides this.

Now that I've said that, I can say that turnout is pitiful in Corinth, and supposedly running "well below average" in a few other places in the Northeast. This is where Hood can boost his margin, and where the State House will be won. Bad news for the Democrats.


Another thing
Turnout in Jackson is causing lines at the polls

[ Parent ]
These are all safe Dem districts, right?


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Yes, the only good thing coming from this is maybe more votes against
the abortion ban.  

[ Parent ]
Of course the amendment in MS is not an abortion
ban as Federal law (Roe V Wade & other cases) over rules any state law MS passes.  Abortion, by state law, is outlawed in numerous states right now but Roe V Wade and other court cases is precedence.

The MS amendment defines "life" and of course is not a backdoor way of overturning Roe V Wade and outlawing abortion in MS.  This law, if passsed, will not restrict or limit abortion in any way.

I might add its state law, in many states, that the taking of the law of child in the wound is comparable to taking the life of another human being.  I believe its federal law as well.  


[ Parent ]
Election Day Rules
Rule 1: Ignore voting anecdotes regarding anything.
Rule 2: Ignore voting anecdotes regarding anything.
Rule 3: Ignore voting anecdotes regarding anything.

25, Male, R, NY-10

Just got off the phone with a "democrat'
who's voting straight Republican with the exception of Hood, and Initiative 26, which he says should be rewritten.

Model 3 Yet?
Or is the Jackson thing indicative of high black turnout?

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
PPP: Gingrich, Bachmann (!) most stand to gain in Iowa w/ a Cain implosion
https://twitter.com/#!/ppppoll...

There's nothing Romney would more love than to see Bachmann return to double-digits there.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


Bachmann second wind
The wheel of candidates is circling back around. Unlike Perry and now Cain, Bachmann didn't implode, she just kinda deflated (as Cain did the first time) when Perry stole her thunder. I think a second wind for her is not impossible.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
NE
DeMint for Stenberg http://thehill.com/blogs/ballo...

25, Male, R, NY-10

Really Bad Move
I respect DeMint, and like what he's trying to do, but this is the kind of move that seriously undercuts his credibility.

Sometimes you have to dig deeper than just the soundbites and the 'top lines'. DeMint didn't do his homework here...
 


[ Parent ]
Yes, really bad move
I don't know what these people are thinking, but they apparently don't seem to know anything about what people in Nebraska want. Stenberg's fundraising is well behind the other two-even Deb Fischer has outraised him by a lot. That tells the story of what people in Nebraska want. I think what's going on here is Stenberg has been very aggressive shopping himself to all the tea-party linked groups and senators, and these people haven't done their homework. Deb Fischer a moderate? Please-these people have no idea what they are talking about. This is all Stenberg has-the endorsements of people that most Nebraskans don't know or care about, while Fischer and Bruning have the money and support of Nebraskans.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
Voted in Cambridge today
at 9am. The 27th voter, the only one at the polling place at the time. There were 7 poll workers present.

And people wonder why governments are always broke...

R - MD-7


Look on the bright side
At least you had a Republican to vote for. Zero Republicans ran for Worcester City Council for the umpteenth cycle in a row, although I got to vote for a very conservative Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Meh
It was really tough for me to get excited about Marquardt. Cambridge is about 10% Republican - I think you could get the ~700 votes necessary to get a city council seat without trying to sound like a liberal Dem. I mean, he could bash Mitimco with the best of 'em. He's better than the alternative, but that's not saying much.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
No Election Today
I find it hard to believe but I don't have an election today. There are others going in LA (e.g. Hahn's city council seat), but not for me. I can't remember this ever happening before.

Of course we have our regular city council elections in March, ensuring that in a city with millions of people someone can get elected with 15,000 votes.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Help
Izengabe et al: Do I have an election today? Should I bother going to my my voting place after work?

25, Male, R, NY-10

In Manhattan it is only uncontested judicial elections
I was tempted to go to the polls and write my own name in but if I was the only one to vote (which I might have been) then I could accidently win and then I would be in real trouble!

As for you out in Brooklyn. Go here:
http://gis.nyc.gov/vote/ps/ind...

type in your address and get a sample ballot for you Election District.

You can then decide if its worth the schlep or not.


[ Parent ]
Texas maps struck down
HotlineJosh Josh Kraushaar
BREAKING: DC Circuit Court rules Texas Congressional maps deprive minorities of representation, orders new maps be drawn.

I hope the legislature gets to draw these. Constitutionally that's their job, not the court's.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Judicial Activism At It's Worst... [sigh] (nt)


[ Parent ]
No the maps were not struck down
but rather a trail was ordered to determine if the court could preclear the map.

More hurry and wait

http://www.google.com/hostedne...


[ Parent ]
backs up what rdelbov said
They lost at summary judgment and now have to go to trial, and of course, appeal.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
I am no lawyer but there was an opening hearing
where all of the sides made their case.  The TX AG made an appeal for summary judgement so the maps could be enacted without going to trail.  The DOJ made no such motion as if a map is not precleared its not enacted.  The DOJ, however, did argue for a trail.

The court is in new territory now as this is the 1st case under the new VRA V procedure.  If TX had a September primary instead of March 2012 date it would be a moot point.  Now due to the early election time we are in a new zone.

Going to trail does not mean preclearance will not occur.  Its like Johnny Cochran asking for charges against OJ to be dropped before the trail is held.  The court has held that enough evidence is out there for a trail but holding it means the matter is still unsettled.  


[ Parent ]
Who usually draws them in an instance like this?


22, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Matt 6:25-34    

[ Parent ]
the legislature can redraw
If it chooses to.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Yep
and that's exactly what the Democrats did when their Legislative maps were denied in 1991.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
The legislature can redraw but it still has to be precleared under
VRA 5.  Federal courts do not need to be precleared if they draw a map.

I still think this map stands. Its all timing now.  


[ Parent ]
I doubt it
If Republicans are smart they just make tweaks so to still screw Doggett.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
That's
sort of what Canseco did.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
that's probably the last ditch scenario
If they don't like the interim map, always having the option to redraw gives the legislature the upper hand.

We might see another special session.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
Special session
would be almost guaranteed.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
Its the federal courts and here's an update
from TX

http://www.yourhoustonnews.com...

there is no ruling from either court that the map is unconstitutional.  Its a timing issue so far.

Its not clear whether the TX court will allow this map to be used for elections as no ruling against it has occured yet. I say stay tuned.  This map could still be used in 2012.


[ Parent ]
Many articles state
That courts draw it now, sounds so from judges too.
Was a unanimous decision including 2 Republicans. http://www.mysanantonio.com/ne...

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
This
proves nothing.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
Said so by court
see above link

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
I realize that
All the article proves is that there will be a trial. The state can bring forth evidence to prove that the maps comply with the VRA. This doesn't necessarily prove that the maps will be struck down so much as that the state did not provide sufficient evidence of their legality.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
Looks like
They want historical voter turnout to be taken into account not only number of Hispanics. Ridiculous. If you don't vote it's your fault. Court shouldn't change things just because people are lazy.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
More accurately
The Democrats want a Congressional map that is 20-14-Lampson-Edwards and a State House map that would give them the opportunity to win 75 seats.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
Is it only two districts?
Isn't the DOJ only objecting to two districts? If they redo 23 and 27 to the DOJ's satisfaction they're golden.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Shouldn't have to redo
the 27th since it has been replaced by the 34th.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
Bingo having a trial means there's enough evidence to have a trial.
The verdict is not settled until there is a trial.  

[ Parent ]
But trial means
That this map will likely not be used.
If possible the GOP should just make a new map for now screwing Doggett and if they win in court they can always redraw in a year or so for 2014.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Or
the Court in San Antonio can just use the state's maps as the temporary maps, which they haven't ruled out.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
It still
Didn't sound likely in court

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
I hadn't heard
that. Since the court in DC hasn't made a ruling against the maps, it is possible that the court in San Antonio could use them.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
Its hard to know what will happen
and where to comment on it!!!

I am picking this spot.

1. Yes there are only two CD's in question.  The DOJ complained about 5 statehouse (out of 150) so 95% of the map is not in question.  

2. The court in TX is in a bind as no map has been precleared.  Any map they put in on an interim basis does not have to precleared but its also not certain to be a 10 year map or even a 2012 map.  

3. The case in DC and in TX will hang on remedies.  The TX map is clearly a political gerrymander, that's not the issue, but if fixing requires that the court racially gerrymander TX23, TX27 and the legislative map then that's not required.  Then the TX map would stand.  If you slice and dice Bexar county you can probably put TX23 & TX28 back to its pre 2010 hispanic numbers and leave Dogget's seat alone.  Yet the Shaw precedence clearly states that racially gerrymandering seats is not required.  

4. So you might see an interim map with very limited changes for TX23 or TX27 but that's it IMO. There is no basis for the court to redo Harris county for instance or DFW.  


[ Parent ]
State House
Since I'm doing an analysis of the State House redistricting, which I promise is forthcoming, I'll comment on two of those five disputed districts. They dispute the legislature moving HD-33, but Nueces County no longer has the population to support more than two districts, so the 33rd was the one that got cut. Harris County can't support 25 seats so HD-149 was moved to Williamson County. The legislature actually could have removed two seats from Harris but only removed one. The residence of 149th District incumbent Hubert Vo was put in HD-137, which is currently represented by Scott Hochburg.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
Texas R I look forward to your post
and as I mentioned From Austin to the Valley you cannot do 7 CD's with 68% hispanic voters.  The GOP does 5 and of course TX27 becomes majority white.  TX23 is around 60% hispanic by VAP.  One could argue that with some nasty gerrymandering you could make TX23 at 68% if you slice and dice all over South Texas.  

The Court in DC did not overturn the Map.

They have a problem with the methodology the GOP used.

The problem for the DOJ is that you cannot show how to redraw TX for seats with higher hispanic % without doing it using racially gerrymandering.  That's not required.  


[ Parent ]
FWIW
1. Any interim maps will be based on the last legally enforceable maps, which are not the maps that have been denied preclearance.

2) An interim map is just that, and the concept is not a novelty. The legislature is free to pass a legal map, or not. Of course, they can do a mid-decade redistricting even to replace a legislative map, to say nothing of an interim court map. There's little doubt that the Texas lege will pass their own map eventually, but it's worth keeping in mind that once elections are held under an interim map that then becomes the Section 5 benchmark. It goes without saying that a replacement map must be legal.

3) It's generally agreed that there is not enough time to have a trial so that a map will be in place for next year's primaries. Shaw states that racial gerrymandering is permissible, or even required, if it's "narrowly tailored" to meet a compelling state interest, such as complying with the Voting Rights Act.

4) It's highly implausible that an interim map would have "very limited changes" by comparison to the maps on trial in DC, because the interim map cannot be based on a map that is not legally enforceable, and since the state gained four seats, which means you effectively have a de novo map based on the last legally enforceable map, which was the 2003 map.

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
Twitterverse
All the "experts" on Twitter (e.g. Wasserman, the Fix) seem to believe that the Federal Court in San Antonio draws the maps for 2012. Period. End of story.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
yep
At point 4, though, the new, passed 36 district map of course has numerous overlaps with the old 32 district map. Particularly districts 9, 16, 18, 29, and 30 all of which were about at population.

So it guess it depends on what 'very limited changes' are.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
We are on new ground is as the map is not precleared
but It has not been rejected. I cannot recall any instance of this occuring.  Is there any precedence for this?  I cannot recall any similar situation to this.  So spectulating on what the courts will do is questionable.  In previous cycles DOJ either refused to preclear or precleared it.  We are in limbo.  These maps could be legal so thinking we will see big changes has no legal precedence. I might add the DOJ only questioned two CDs, 5 house seats and precleared the state senate map.  So much of the map was okayed by the DOJ as no complaints was made.

I might add that the 2011 map has 80% or similarity with the GOP 2003  map. Yes 4 new seats were added but only two or three existing seats went through major changes.  Doggett, Farenthold and Paul found themselves with +50% new seats.  The GOP map of 2011 is 2003 adjusted for population.  Only 3/32 seats went through major changes.  In fact every incumbent except Doggett has a clear path to re election.  


[ Parent ]
the ground isn't that new
Here's the last bit of history.

http://www.tlc.state.tx.us/red...

The U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Texas also held hearings on various legal challenges to the LRB house redistricting plan on November 13-15. The DOJ denied preclearance of the LRB house plan on November 16, and on November 28 the federal district court put in place a new house district plan (PLAN01369H), which modified the LRB house plan to address the DOJ's objections.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
Yep
The story of the 1990s House map is more interesting though.

http://www.tlc.state.tx.us/red...

The legislature's map was rejected by the DoJ so a court-drawn map was used for the 1992 elections. The 1994 elections were held under a map that the legislature passed in a 1992 special election. That map was subsequently thrown out in 1995 and a court drawn map was used again for the 1996 elections. In 1997, the House passed a new map which was upheld and used in the 1998 and 2000 elections.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17


[ Parent ]
*special session


Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
"Least Change"
Agreed, the legislature's map actually is more of a least change map than the Dem and Hispanic group maps.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
November 28
http://www.politico.com/news/s...

There's no way the Texas legislature can pass maps and have them be cleared by November 28. So the primaries will be run on Federal District court lines. Republicans can do one of three things.

1. Accept the court map.
2. Continue to challenge the DOJ for their map.
3. Draw a new map that addresses the concerns and gets approved by the DOJ.

Apparently the lines can be changed between the primaries and the general. I didn't think you could do that. What if Doggett wins a primary in an Austin district but ends up with that district divided up in 4, with the other 4 districts all having Democratic nominees?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
What
Trey Martinez-Fischer doesn't realize is that his state house redistricting proposals, of which there are several, don't have a chance in hell of being used because they violate the county-line rule.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
Great comments guys-yes I know
this is directed to a stream of comments.  I might add that there are great comments relating to VAP & other relevant %.  

I think the two likeliest scenerios are okaying the use of the passed TX maps.  They are in legal limbo, but the court also gave no indication that they are illgal.  All the primaries can be reset by the federal court if need be.  Ironically the legelislators cannot change filing dates and primaries without VRA V approval.  Federal courts can.  

The other likely scenerio is redoing the contested areas of TX23-TX27 and the legislative seats.  As noted you can modify TX23 a bit with a lot of gerrymandering to get to 68% hispanic.  You can't redo TX27 to 68% hispanic. So the congressional map which mostly mirrors the 2003 map, except for new seats, would be left intact under an interim map.    


[ Parent ]
Wow
Just... Wow. well, at least this is just the map going to trial, but using voter turnout stats from previous elections? Seriously? Turnout changes.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college), MS-03 (weekend)

[ Parent ]
I don't feel bad about this
The Texas map was really, truly horrible. I drew a 27-9 map with 11 Hispanic majority seats, 1 black majority seat and 1 black plurality seat. They drew a 26-10 map with 8 Hispanic seats and 3 black plurality seats. Of course, my map would have required some incumbents to move, but there's no excuse for this ending up in court.

For example, my Texas 23 took in all of Odessa and Hispanic sections of Midland. There are thousands of REPUBLICAN HISPANICS who turnout to vote. They just happen to vote for Republicans. Take in those, get rid of some of the San Antonio Hispanics, and you get up to 61% Hispanic VAP and 60% McCain.

My Texas 27 was a 55% Hispanic VAP seat at 56% McCain. I drew a 55% Hispanic district in Houston that was 54% McCain. I drew a 50% Hispanic district right next to Farenthold's district that was 58% McCain.

People have talked about the Texas map as if it were a great map. It was horrible. It failed to maximize GOP districts while also taking unnecessary VRA risks. Seriously. Take 23 to Midland/Odessa and the Dems may not like it but there's nothing they can do about it.  


[ Parent ]
Unfortunately
VAP in Hispanic districts is basically useless. The real benchmark is SSVR, which is an approximation of HCVAP. This is why it's impossible to draw a Hispanic majority seat in Dallas.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
?
What does SSVR stand for? How is it measured? My understanding is that the VRA uses VAP as its standard in all cases. Also, regardless of whether it is possible to draw an HCVAP majority district in Dallas/Ft. Worth, you can draw a 57% Hispanic seat by VAP in the area that functions as a very effective vote sink and makes the Democrats happy. I have no idea why they didn't do that. I have no idea why they didn't put Odessa and Midland in TX-23. I just don't understand a lot of what they did...

[ Parent ]
Answers
VAP is the standard for AA districts, not Hispanic districts, at least not Hispanic districts in states covered by the Fourth Circuit.

SSVR stands for Spanish Surname Voter Registration. The Census Bureau has a list of Hispanic last names and these are matched to the voter rolls to calculate it (I'm not joking).

They didn't draw a second vote sink in Dallas because by 2021, TX-30 will likely have to expand further into West Dallas.

They didn't put Midland in TX-23 because Conway lives there and because it may have dropped the 23rd's SSVR too low.

While I was disappointed with the map, it was probably the best they could do with the VRA around.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17


[ Parent ]
What. the. heck.
That is the dumbest way of calculating VRA compliance. It actually scares me that someone uses that as a valid methodology. All Latinos have Spanish last names? What if you married a white man? It actually seems inherently biased against Republicans. We should work to overturn it and just use VAP. If the Dems don't like that, they should allow us to ask about citizenship on the Census.

1. My two vote sinks go from Dallas to Ft. Worth and make the Ft. Worth seats much safer. I still think they should have done that. I don't see how 30's need to move into West Dallas affects much of anything...

2. It doubt it would have dropped SSVR too low. First of all, Odessa is majority Latino by VAP, and by a lot. Midland is not, but there are sections that are. I don't care about Conway. I really don't. Party first, incumbents second. We wouldn't be in this mess if they had been willing to give part of Midland to Canseco. Not to mention he would be in a 60% McCain seat rather than a 52% McCain seat that is about to get undone.  


[ Parent ]
Out of curiosity.
Do you have to use SSVR in California, or is VAP sufficient?

i.e. If I drew a 51% VAP Hispanic district in rural Central Valley, would that be illegal or would it fill the requirements of the VRA?

http://mypolitikal.com/


[ Parent ]
CA uses VAP only,
at least right now.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college), MS-03 (weekend)

[ Parent ]
wouldn't be VRA protected
While CVAP isn't used in the 9th circuit,
a bare 51% Hispanic VAP wouldn't be VRA protected.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Obama approval with whites in MS is 16%
http://twitter.com/#!/ppppolls

22, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Matt 6:25-34    

That's an improvement for him
He only got 11% in 2008.

[ Parent ]
The Washington Redistricting committee
is starting it's meeting right now. I can give updates on highlights from the meeting including any maps that hopefully will be coming out.

26, Republican, WA-03 (represented by wonderful Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler).

Great
Thanks

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Agh! :(
The Republicans and one of the Democrats are saying they want to devide the state between the two parties and only they would have a say in their own region for the state house/senate map. Bad news for me, the Democrats get my area. Under the GOP maps I would have been drawn into a new Republican seat, but under the Dems Im still in a Dem seat.

26, Republican, WA-03 (represented by wonderful Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler).

[ Parent ]
yeah!
They are going to do that, but one from each party will work together, so theres still hope for me lol.

Still no word on Congressional maps yet.

26, Republican, WA-03 (represented by wonderful Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler).


[ Parent ]
Well this has been
a waste of time. Doesn't look like any maps or anything will be coming out today. All it is is bureaucratic meeting dates and trying to figure things out between a bunch of old guys medical appointments and knee surgeries. So boring, makes me want to crave my eyes out and feed them to my cat.

Sorry guys

26, Republican, WA-03 (represented by wonderful Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler).


[ Parent ]
Kyle I listened to the last few speakers
and yes there was some thoughtful discussion of Graham WA.

More wait and see.  


[ Parent ]
Dem councilman
Eulogizes Qaddafi http://thebrooklynink.com/2011...

25, Male, R, NY-10

Miss 07 Gov. Results by county
Barbour won 58-42. Benchmark for tonights results
https://docs.google.com/viewer...

SC1-Charleston

The 2007 KY results are there as well so
are you suggesting that any study of it will be pointless?

Oh my KY!!!


[ Parent ]
Yes
That one's not going to be pleasant.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
What is Cain going to say?
Either he's totally innocent, or that he's a flawed man and he made some mistakes, none of which should sink his candidacy?

The first path is probably the one his campaign needs to take, but I'm not sure that all of the women have come forward yet.

I hope this doesn't result in a Cain melt down. I don't want a good candidate for federal office tarnished permanently, though I guess that's becoming a very real possibility.

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)


Clint Eastwood for Cain
http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

Nice


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college), MS-03 (weekend)

[ Parent ]
OH: Cain 34, Gingrich 20, Romney 19; MS: Gingrich 28, Cain 25, Perry 14, Romney 12
http://www.publicpolicypolling...

At this rate, if Cain completely implodes, Gingrich might prove unstoppable in the south. (And stronger than Huckabee.)

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


You know, these numbers don't show Cain completely imploding.
If anything, they show Republicans rallying around him against the unfair MSM. Unless the women manage to produce, uh, ocular proof, I don't see a reason for that to change. Romney's fighting for second place right now.  

[ Parent ]
It has to hurt eventually
The first reaction among many people is to defend him against unfair charges. But the longer this goes on, the more people start to rethink their support.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
I agree that the hooplah has sparked a rallying effect
When, however, everything calms down and the Cain supporters are less emboldened, I suspect you'll see a diversion of soft Cain backers over to Gingrich. And by December, Cain will be in low double-digits, probably just ahead of Paul.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Italy
Looks like Burlesconi is resigning.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

Sad
Europe could use more jerks like him.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Meh
We still have Sarkozy as the playboy of European politics. Now silvio can go host some more kick ass parties now that he will be in retirement.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Oooh
Good. He's so sleazy.  Does this mean a new election?

Social Democrat, NY-02

[ Parent ]
I don't really like to
get into alot of other nations politics outside of what it means for American interests and human rights. But this man is a freak, sure not sad to see him gone.

26, Republican, WA-03 (represented by wonderful Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler).

[ Parent ]
good riddance
I wish it were this easy to get dictators to resign though :/

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Cain presser starting
attorney is very combative...

R - MD-7

Continued denial
"They simply did not happen."

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
This doesn't sound good
[ Parent ]
Yea
This is getting bad.  

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
His attorney
Worked for John and Patsy Ramsey. Makes Gloria Allred look like Atticus Finch.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Umm...
Truly a sound bite candidate.  Something Sarah Palin would do.  Actually that is even below her.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Btw, there's a debate tomorrow (!)
CNBC, 8 p.m. eastern, moderated by Maria Bartiromo and John Harwood. Questions on Cain's scandal are not off-limits.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

Santorum
They might need to cage Santorum to prevent him from going nuclear on Cain.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Craig Huey: No announcement, 3 choices
I'm sure this'll get lost with all the election coverage, but Craig Huey put up this unlisted video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

He's laid out three choices:

1) CA-33 against Waxman
2) CA-44 against Hahn/Richardson/Hall
3) South Bay assembly district

He doesn't say which one. Number 2 is silly. You're not really running for anything. Number 1 is an extreme long shot. Craig said he wouldn't run in the current CA-36 in a regular November full turn-out election. This district isn't much different. I assume it'll be Sacramento.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Most likely.
I'm compiling election data for the new districts. Huey's best shot is the new swingy 66th Assembly district. Democrats have a slight edge in registration but Fiorina and Whitman won here. http://www.mpimaps.com/wp-cont...

http://www.theelectionsgeek.blogspot.com
29, Post-Modern, Female, CA-31 (hometown), UT-02 (current)


[ Parent ]
Schock for Romney
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballo...

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


Mrs. Scott Brown for MA-04??
What do people think about Gail Huff- Brown's wife, for MA-04? She has name rec from being a new's anchorwoman in Boston until last year when she quit to take a job with a DC news station to be closer to Brown.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


Gail Huff
She may have been a newscaster, but she's definitely doesn't love the spotlight like he does. I just don't see her making that run.

We also don't know if she's a Republican...


[ Parent ]
Yeah, I don't see it either
Our best recruit there would be Richard Ross, who has Brown's old Senate seat. Ross' district overlaps almost entirely with Frank's and is D+8.  

[ Parent ]
The Norfolk, Bristol & Middlesex district
Yep. It has a similar suburban/exburban ratio, and a very similar partisan mix. Heck, it is even shaped the same way, with that arm that goes into Needham all the way from North Attleboro.

[ Parent ]
Elizabeth Childs
http://news.bostonherald.com/n...

Barney has an opponent

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
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