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Washington's New Congressional Districts Data

by: RockRibbedR

Thu Dec 29, 2011 at 17:33:13 PM EST


( - promoted by Ryan_in_SEPA)

Distribution stats:

WA-01: Inslee 48%, Larsen 43%, Reichert 10%
WA-02: Larsen 70%, Inslee 30%
WA-03: Herrera 97%, Hastings 3%
WA-04: Hastings 92%, McMorris 8%
WA-05: McMorris 100%
WA-06: Dicks 82%, Inslee 18%
WA-07: McDermott 81%, Inslee 15%, Smith 4%
WA-08: Reichert 68%, Hastings 19%, Smith 13%
WA-09: Smith 41%, Reichert 35%, McDermott 23%
WA-10: Smith 50%, Dicks 23%, Herrera 19%, Reichert 8%

Partisan stats (keep in mind these represent a two party vote percentage, and they are based on a statistical model, but that same statistical model estimated all of the old 9 Congressional Districts between .1 and .5 points from their true Obama/McCain numbers. Thanks 270!):

Photobucket

NOTE- Dave Leip's site MADE UP the Comptroller data... that position doesn't exist. Weird.

UPDATE-

Cantwell/McGavick

District Dem Rep
1 52.9% 47.1%
2 60.1% 39.9%
3 52.9% 47.1%
4 41.1% 58.9%
5 48% 52%
6 59.8% 40.2%
7 80.1% 19.9%
8 50% 50%
9 67.9% 32.1%
10 56.3% 43.7%

Senn/McKenna

1 39.7% 60.3%
2 47.5% 52.5%
3 43% 57%
4 32.3% 67.7%
5 38.3% 61.7%
6 46.7% 53.3%
7 67% 33%
8 35.4% 64.6%
9 51.6% 48.4%
10 43.6% 56.4%

RockRibbedR :: Washington's New Congressional Districts Data
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Thanks for the information
and I appreciate the work.  

270
What a guy.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
for ha ha's I looked at one of my old DRA maps
I did an R gerrymander of WA State which would have been Eldrege Gerry on red Bull. Gnarwly, odd shapes, water continguity, 4 districts crossing the Cascades (3,4,8,10). Ok, you get the idea.

Here were the Rossi numbers (No McCain available)

1. 54.2%
2. 40.1%
3. 56.8%
4. 57.3%
5. 58%
6. 35.8% (covered lots of new 9)
7. 18.6%
8. 53%
9. 51%
10.55.1%

Now how close you could ever get to this with one Cascade crossing and not furiously unpacking 4; I dunno.  Where we didn't "hit" was being unable to fully engage a 6th seat and putting a 7th at risk.  Dems now have 4 very strong seats unless Dicks stands down and an edge for 5th; we have 4 good seats and a jump ball for a 5th.

You know its' harder to score when the other team is on the field ;)

 


[ Parent ]
Washington
Just curious- did it look anything like this? How did it differ?

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
sorta mashed up 6 and 9
to make a "sailboat seat" vote sink for Dicks. Olympia. Bremerton, downtown Tacoma, parts of south King Co. some <70% D Seattle precincts

There will be a whackjob lefty in 7th's "jungle primary" --swapped 65%D nabes for 80% nabes to stuff it full of hard lefties.

Kept 1 north of King County (actually numbered it 2 on my map)

Gave 10 the Olympic peninsula, some areas south of Olympia, and jumped over to part of Yakima

4- jumped across to grab Olympia

3- lost the areas north of Vancouver and jumped to grab Kennewick and some hispanic areas

8- meandered around to get what R and swingy nabes there were in Mercer Island, Bellevue, Redmond & Kirtland. A bit less over the hill

9- inland Pierce and R leaning south King co precints


[ Parent ]
Interesting
Can you post a screen shot?

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
Wait a minute.....
We don't have a state "Comtroller", not have I heard of these two people Trafton and Dumont.

26, Republican, WA-03 (represented by wonderful Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler).

From TwoHundertSeventy
"Yeah, it doesn't exist. It seems like Dave Leip's site completely invented that race. They have election results for it going back several cycles. It's completely bizarre. I cross-checked a couple other election results vs. the secretary of state website, and they seem to be fine..."

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
Old McKenna AG % would be useful
to show what "good" GOP performance goods like; as would Cantwell's 06 % to put a floor on what a mediocre GOP federal candidate in a bad year could expect.

[ Parent ]
Ah, whatever.
No one's gonna tie a bit of data geekery around my neck, right?

AG-2004

District Dem Rep
1 39.7% 60.3%
2 47.5% 52.5%
3 43% 57%
4 32.3% 67.7%
5 38.3% 61.7%
6 46.7% 53.3%
7 67% 33%
8 35.4% 64.6%
9 51.6% 48.4%
10 43.6% 56.4%

AG-2008

District Dem Rep
1 34.6% 65.4%
2 42.5% 57.5%
3 42.7% 57.3%
4 29.1% 70.9%
5 34.1% 65.9%
6 42.3% 57.7%
7 61.5% 38.5%
8 31.1% 68.9%
9 45.8% 54.2%
10 40.1% 59.9%

Senate 2006

District Dem Rep
1 52.9% 47.1%
2 60.1% 39.9%
3 52.9% 47.1%
4 41.1% 58.9%
5 48% 52%
6 59.8% 40.2%
7 80.1% 19.9%
8 50% 50%
9 67.9% 32.1%
10 56.3% 43.7%


[ Parent ]
So WA-1 is truly a swing seat
If only the GOP could field a strong candidate from King County, then it would be great. Nevertheless, I suspect that Koster could mount a strong campaign. But then again, someone from King County would be better. Maybe someone could persuade Sue Rahr to run?

[ Parent ]
McGavricK lost handily
But managed 47% in WA01. The R base here is pretty large. Now where the next 3% are & who can get them are the question  

[ Parent ]
Some strong R from King County could get them
Are there Republican King County Councilmen/women from the district?

[ Parent ]
WA10
McGavick % tells me we have a hard base in the mid 40s there. McKenna % tells me under right scenario R does well. Rossi & Gorton % make this statewide bellwether.

Assuming Romney doesnt get shellacked like Mac we could win this with enough votes in Pierce County  


[ Parent ]
Too bad for Democrats
Trafton looks like a great candidate for WA-1 congress.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Democrats Have Good Candidates As Well
So I'm not too worried.  If both sides have good candidates, Democrats still have the slightest of edges.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
It is going to be
hard to fathom just how changed WA-8 has become. I have ALWAYS been worried about that district since 2004, every election, and now its voted so Republican down the ticket with the small victory by Obama.  

26, Republican, WA-03 (represented by wonderful Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler).

WA-1 is D+2
It's still swingy but Democrats are favored. The district being open obviously helps us. What are Koster's chances of defeating DelBene?  

WA1 is swingy
no doubt and WA10 is within reach in an open seat situation.

So WA commission did us right IMO.


WA-05
Is within reach if Democrats nominate someone horrible or a huge gaffe happens.  Otherwise I don't see it as a seat that will be perennially at risk.

But yes, your side clearly won this battle of Redistricting.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
I'd be worried in WA01 if we run too vocal a socon or Tea Partier
I'd be looking for someone with a somewhat libertarian or apolitical resume (ala County Sheriff) to appeal to high income moderates in King Co  

[ Parent ]
This Would Be Wise
Of course I hope this does not happen myself wink wink nudge nudge.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
No one went broke shorting Republican strategic wisdom
(snark)  

[ Parent ]
Koster is already running there
Being a Snohomish County Councilman makes him a moderate that could appeal to King County voters, I think. Or not.

[ Parent ]
Koster ran very well
in the rural and suburban areas of WA2 in 2010.  It looked like to me he won Larsen's old home area of lake Stevens.  I say old home because he apparently lives in Arlington WA now.  

[ Parent ]
Koster Is Not A Moderate
That's not meant as a diss, but there is nothing that I can find in his issues that would have him be called that.

He is excellent if you want more Conservatives in Congress, but I don't think hes an ideal candidate in a district like WA-01.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
Some "check the box' conservatives aren't perceived that way
as they have a significant track record on nonideological issues people like, or they avoid fiery rhetoric and confrontation. Is Koster one of these types? beats me...I'm on other end of I-90

[ Parent ]
Good Point
Some Conservatives (And Liberals) are very good at appearing moderate, even when they really aren't.  I have never seen Koster on the stump, just have read articles/Issue positions, so that is totally possible.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
I think Smith in WA9 fits that description
reliable party voting record; but does not pick fights with folks. He actually might have to get more vocal to fit his new seat. if anything it might be "too safe". he'd probably prefer like an D+7-8 or so where there are not enough libs to primary him, not enough Rs to pose a real threat.    

[ Parent ]
I like Koster
and I hope he wins. But honestly we would have better chances with someone from King County. The new WA-1 is a different district than WA-2 where I think he was a better fit when he ran twice before.

The Democrats will have a small edge, I would wait to see how the field devolpes over the next few months before calling it a toss up.

I did find it interesting, during the commission meeting, when the Democrat who helped draw the map said that both him and the Republican agreed it was a swing seat, but both thought their own party had a small edge. That appears to be true to most of the partisan bloggers out there too.

26, Republican, WA-03 (represented by wonderful Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler).


[ Parent ]
Agree
Do you know a strong Republican from the King County portion of the district?  

[ Parent ]
Well no
This is only 1.5 points redder than WA as a whole. Most likely come 2012 and a D will win it narrowly. We should have insisted on another point improvement. We only shored up 3 by 1 point and JHB could still lose it in a wave while we only really strengthened Reichert.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
On balance
I think we got the better of it. Dems are saying we should have done x,y,z different too. I'll take it.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
I think the expectation is the areas left in 3 are drifting right
3 kept Vancouver which is a Portland suburb. It lost the areas near Olympia(state govt). The trend may be our friend here  

[ Parent ]
From
what I understand WA-3 is now rated R+3 PVI, from Even, so a little more than 1 point improvement.

As stated above, southwest Washington as a whole has been trending Republican. We sure aren't talking safe Republican territory, but with Olympia out of the picture, Republicans should be happy what has happened with WA-3.

26, Republican, WA-03 (represented by wonderful Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler).


[ Parent ]
No
It's only R+1

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
May be wrong
We'll see what the official numbers are, eventually.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
Are you using two party vote
Obama 52% on that.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
GradyDem
He calculated it by precinct and pegged it at 51.9% Obama... I don't think that was two party. I'll ask him.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
Shamlet and another had it R+3
and the 2 party vote in your chart has it 52/48. That's D+1 over Obama 53% nationally. Really Obama's two party share would be 54 or so as well.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Meant R+1
Two Party 52/48 Obama. Obama 53% Nationally Including third parties. That's were R+1 comes from if going by 2008. Both of those would be incorrect in calculating that.  

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
It's R+2
Two-party Obama is 52/48. Nationally, it's 53.7%. So that would be R+1.7 (R+2) in 2008. It's also R+2 in 2004, so the Cook PVI is R+2.

[ Parent ]
Problem is
In the old 3rd it was Obama 53- MCCain 45- Other 2. District had a higher percent of 3rd party vote than the country as a whole. So you have to account for the discrepancy by district. Better to calculate by the whole vote. Not that it matters much though.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Two party vote
provides consistency. If it's 53/45 Obama, I think you just have to convert them to two-party percentages. That would be 54/46 Obama (EVEN PVI in 2008).  

[ Parent ]
According To The Numbers In This Very Diary...
...It appears that WA-02 is about R+2 based on 2004/2008 numbers. So it's a +2R improvement over the old version.

I think R+2 in a state like Washington is pretty solid...  


[ Parent ]
It went from EVEN to R+2
You also just have to look at downballot races to say that this district is likely Republican. I'll go for it. The expectation from WaPo is that the Dems will get the additional seat in Washington. It ended up being 5-4-1. We can win 50% of the seats in a Dem-leaning state, so I'll take it.  

[ Parent ]
Exactly
We could easily be 3-7 here.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
If Dems could gerrymander WA state
They'd unpack 7 into "pizza slices" and we wouldn't touch a district within 50 miles of the Space Needle.  

[ Parent ]
I know geez
Dems have the gov/senate/house here. What's the alternative to 4-6 or 5-5 that we got. No better then 3-7, probably 2-8. And this isnt a win.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
2-8 at best
If it were up to me, there'd be one GOP district and a tossup seat.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
You Can't Do 1-8-1 Unless You Hack Eastern Washington To Pieces
I'm in favor of partisan gerrymandering as much as the next guy, as long as CoIs are mostly adhered to.

The only way to get WA down to one GOP district, with just one 'swing', would be to, like, draw Seattle in to Central Washington (over the Cascades) - that's a bridge too far IMO. Like the MD gerrymander.

Both parties play with fire when they gerrymander that outrageously. If Dems had 'trifecta' line-drawing in WA, they'd be much smarter doing a 2-8. Something like 1-8-1 would just invite an initiative to remove line-drawing power from the politicians (which, of course, has already happened in Washington, so this is all an academic discussion anyway...).  


[ Parent ]
towns tend to rebel against pizza slicing
Take a look at New York and Philadelphia, both of which are contained to the minimum number of districts required.

Chicago is I guess is the only city that was 'sliced' relatively speaking.

28, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
Keystone Krazen
Hey! You moved to PA!

Our PA users are now...

1) Krazen
2) Ryan
3) BerksPA
4) FreedomJim
5) The guy from PA-06 living in MA-08
6) SEPADem
7) LCL (well, raised in PA)
8) AJNolte
9) AppleCon

Am I missing anyone? I'd say there's a ~50% chance I'm #10 depending on where I get into for next year. That's a whole lot of Pennsylvanians.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
Pizza slice revolts
How would they rebel, though? I don't see all of those latte liberals in Seattle suddenly voting for a Republican Congressman because their city was split seven ways... Do you mean that the legislators would be mad?

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
it usually comes down to the legislatures and funding
Either the legislators won't support the map and it will die (likely) or if that doesn't happen, influential big names and/or big money will keep their money and shut down their standard turnout operations. Turnout is less of an issue in Seattle, of course.

Generally it seems that cities that are butchered (Raleigh) don't have the influence in the state party operations that, say, Chicago does.

And in any case lets preserve the Darcy Burner lesson. You don't want progressives in most suburban districts.

28, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
Man I Hope They Nominate Burner!... (nt)


[ Parent ]
You have to pass a map
If the map is passed, a la Maryland, there's nothing you can do. If there's strong local resistance the legislator, Democrat or Republican, might not vote for the map. If the entire city council and local leaders are bombarding your office with calls, you have to listen. I don't know how it is in Washington, but I'd guess that a lot of cities would like to dominate their confessional district and a lot of legislators don't want their city to lose any influence.

I'm speculating but pizza slicing Chicago may not have been a big deal. Chicago is a huge city, bigger than Seattle. Thus, you can add some area outside the city and still have city districts dominate. There won't be less congressmen from Chicago in the next congress.

Keep in mind, that in Illinois the 6th, 8th, 11th, and 14th have no territory that is currently represented by a Democrat. The 10th only took 47,433 from the 9th. Because the districts had to get bigger the Democratic districts absorbed some Republican areas, but didn't give up their own. The 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, and 9th added 100,000-200,000 people from GOP districts.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
St Louis
St Louis Mayor Slay actually complained that the new map places all of St Louis city in "only" one district instead of the usual two.

The Republican legislature ignored Slay as all of St Louis City in the same congressional district makes for a very effective Democratic vote sink.

Kansas City is actually split across multiple counties, so small parts of it ended up outside the main KC congressional district.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
I just so can see Heck getting surprised in 10
Muri ran 2 years ago in 50% of this seat and appears to have carried this part of the district. I'm absolutely sure he got very little DC cash or 527 aid since Adam Smith never broke a sweat before and WA09 was like #92 on the NRCC target list. Still, he took 45%. Which tells me 1. he can run a presentable race on fumes and 2. he has a base in Pierce County.

 


[ Parent ]
Is Muri a moderate?
But the district is D+5. It would be hard for him to win in a neutral year.  

[ Parent ]
Dunno
He is a local officeholder so it might be hard to pin all Tea Party all the time on him.  

[ Parent ]
6th/10th=Democrat Leaning
In both CDs, Kerry got 54%. As I said in the New Mexico page, it is very rare for a Republican to win a CD like that. On the other hand, the 1st is a pure swing district. Dave Weichert of the 8th CD has a more Republican leaning district where he will be safe.

Male, PA-15, Libertarian leaning-Republican

In an open seat there's a shot
I think once a seat gets to 56% Kerry it's out of reach; but the trend line in 10 is its pretty much a statewide bellwether. So a credible "local Republican" is a possibility

The Dems obviously decided that given the slight Dem lean of eastern WA outside the core Seattle area that they'd lock in one seat (2); give Norm Dicks a "safe for him" Cd (6) and had to leave a pure swing seat (1). 10 is a lean Dem seat, but given it's sui generis I'd hate to concede it out of the box and make a pattern out of it.

If Dicks was retiring soon the Dems would have to make tougher decisions in south Puget Sound but they are
gambling +5 is enough for each seat.

One other thing. WA is rather volatile. In 1994 the GOP went from 1 seat to 7. Given that track record I'd not throw in a towel on 10  


[ Parent ]
Sue Rahr
I'm surprised no one is talking about her for WA-1. Assuming she is a Republican and is willing to run, she could be a very strong candidate that can be groomed for a senate run against Murray in 2016.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

Sue Rahr
I also like her to run as a Republican in WA-1. But is she really a Republican? It would be bad if she ended up running as a Democrat.  

[ Parent ]
I think she is
She was talked up earlier in the year as a potential challenger for Cantwell and she has ties with Rep. Reichert.

On a side note I really hope Reichert runs for the senate now that his seat is safer for a Republican to hold (maybe Susan Hutchison?).

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


[ Parent ]
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