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Final NYS Senate (Updated!)

by: shamlet

Wed Jan 11, 2012 at 20:46:44 PM EST


Note: this map was updated to take into account that Dutchess and Albany Counties cannot be split. Please remember to consider the addendum below.

This is my final guess as to what the NYS Senate map will look like. It's an improvement over my previous hideous R gerrymander in several respects, but could still yield 38 Republicans. All R incumbents are well-protected. Only one (Robach) is in anything worse than a D+2, and he gets a major improvement from D+20ish to D+7. Republicans are generally favored in D+5 and below seats and are almost always competitive in anything below D+10. New features in this version:

First, as best I can tell it does not split towns smaller than a senate district, as per state law.

Second, it creates an Asian majority seat in Queens (#16).

Third, when it was necessary to weaken certain Rs over others, I gave ones that voted for SSM the weaker districts. Those Senators will likely have substantially better resources behind them in GE fights.

Finally, it takes into account the Independent Democrats. As per NYS Senate tradition, the R majority has a few Democrats on standby to switch parties at all times. After Jeff Klein was scorned in his D leadership bid in '09, he decided to take his ball (by which I mean his gf Diane Savino and desciples Carlucci and Valesky) and go home (by which I mean start cooperating with Republicans). As I don't think Skelos wants to hang them out to dry when they could be a valuable majority-saver, all 4 are given districts that they can win as Ds or as Rs. This has the side effect of exposing them all to tough GEs if they turn their backs and refuse to play ball with us as well.

Note I didn't renumber any of the districts to make for easy comparisons; they will likely be renumbered to keep the LI to Buffalo sequence.

Downstate:
NYSen_New_Downstate

Upstate:
NYSen_New_Upstate

Suffolk:
NYSen_New_Suffolk

Nassau:
NYSen_New_Nassau

Long Island:
1. LaValle (R-Port Jefferson) R+1 Blue
2. Flanagan (R-E. Northport) R+2 Green
3. Zeldin (R-Shirley) EVEN Purple
4. Johnson (R-W. Babylon) EVEN Red
5. Marcellino (R-Syosset) R+1 Yellow
6. Hannon (R-Garden City) EVEN Teal
7. Martins (R-Mineola) R+2 Gray
8. Fuschillo (R-Merrick) R+1 Lavender
9. Skelos (R-Rockville Ctr.) R+1 Cyan

Long Island is pretty much the same as before. Smith's 14th district has been sent out to Hempstead to grab more blacks (and, conveniently, more Democrats) so that no district is any worse than 53% Obama. The Nassau-Queens line is only crossed once and incumbents keep almost all their territory.

NY City:
NYSen_New_NYC

Brooklyn/S. Queens:
NYSen_New_NYCSouth

Bronx/Manhattan/N. Queens:
NYSen_New_NYCNorth

Staten I.:
NYSen_New_SI

Queens:
10. Huntley (D-Jamaica) D+30 58% BVAP Pink
11. Avella (D-Whitestone) D+6 Olive
12. Gianaris (D-Astoria) D+26 Sky Blue
13. Peralta (D-Jackson Heights) D+27 57% HVAP Tan
14. Smith (D-St. Albans) D+24 58% BVAP Bright Green
15. Adabbo (D-Ozone Park) D+23 28/11/27/24 WBHA VAP Orange
16. Stavisky (D-Flushing) D+19 53% AVAP Lime Green
63. OPEN R+4 Blue

Queens is where the new 63rd appears, taken out of the R portions of Adabbo's 15th district. It's a seat that would be tailor-made for Bob Turner if Skelos can persuade him to take it. Eric Ulrich lives outside it but might also find it appealing, and Storobin or Fidler might also run there instead of the 27th. It should lean pretty strongly R. Adabbo as a consequence gets protected. The other vulnerable D in Queens, Avella, gets hurt by a point to keep his seat in play, though still a Leans D seat. Expect there to be a major push by Skelos to get Dan Halloran to run for the 11th if a plan like this passes. Stavisky's seat is boosted to Asian majority to help protect this plan from litigation.

Brooklyn:
17. Malave Dilan (D-Bushwick) D+26 56% HVAP Navy
18. Montgomery (D-Bed/Stuy) D+44 53% BVAP Yellow
19. Sampson (D-Canarsie) D+39 71% BVAP Yellow-Green
20. Adams (D-Flatbush) D+41 51% BVAP Pink
21. Parker (D-Flatbush) D+39 51% BVAP Marroon
22. Golden (R-Bay Ridge) EVEN Brown
23. Savino (ID-North Shore) D+3 Turquoise
24. Lanza (R-Great Kills) R+11 Indigo
25. Squadron (D-Carroll Gardens) D+31 Red-Purple
27. OPEN R+21 Spring Green

The new "super-Jewish" seat in Brooklyn is created. Despite being R+21 it doesn't realy qualify as a vote sink because our bench is weak. Simcha Felder may run here, or Storobin if he wins the seat. If Fidler wins the 27th, the 63rd is likely a better option but it's still uphill and a lot of new territory. He should be screwed either way. The 4 Black districts are well-protected; the 19th takes in the Jewish portion of Crown Heights to keep the other three black majority. All incumbents including Golden should have seats to their liking.

On Staten Island, we come to the first of our Independent Dems. Savino's district is hardest to thread the needle on; you want to unpack Lanza and give Savino a seat where she can win as a D or an R. I think this D+3 threads the needle pretty well. Lanza is still beyond safe.

Manhattan:
26. Krueger (D-East Side) D+22 Gray
28. Serrano (D-Mott Haven) D+38 50% HVAP Blue-Violet
29. Duane (D-West Side) D+33 Pea Green
30. Perkins (D-Harlem) D+44 11/49/35 WBH VAP Khaki
31. Espaillat (D-Washington Heights) D+37 54% HVAP Marroon

Almost nothing changes in Manhattan; Perkins is sent to the Bronx to keep Black influence while Espaillat contracts to Manhattan and stays HVAP majority.

The Bronx:
32. Diaz (D-Soundview) D+39 59% HVAP Red-Orange
33. Rivera (D-Kingsbridge Heights) D+42 67% HVAP Royal Blue
34. Klein (ID-Morris Park) D+1 Lime Green
35. Stewart-Cousins (D-Yonkers) D+26 36/16/40 WBH VAP Purple
36. Hassell-Thompson (D-Williamsbridge) D+38 57% BVAP Orange

Klein soaks up all the Republicans in the Bronx (yes there are some) and augments that with a bit of Republican leaning Lower Westchester. Again, it's a seat he should be able to hold as a D or an R. Stewart-Cousins gets protected by taking Riverdale and losing Republican East Yonkers.

Lower Westchester:
NYSen_New_Westchester

Hudson Valley:
NYSen_New_LoHud

37. Oppenheimer (D-Mamaroneck) D+13 Baby Blue
38. Carlcuci (ID-Clarkstown) EVEN Magenta
39. Larkin (R-New Windsor) R+2 Blue
40. Ball (R-Paterson) EVEN Green
41. Saland (R-Poughkeepsie) D+1 Purple
42. Bonacic (R-Mt. Hope) R+1 Red

Oppenheimer gets slightly protected though her seat is in reach in a perfect storm. Ball reaches down to grab the R-leaning town of Harrison, and Saland (who can probably take a more liberal district because of his SSM vote) takes Newburgh. Carlucci, like the other IDs, has a district hospitable to a party switch (the entire county of Rockland and nothing else!) and everyone else doesn't change too much. 46 swoops down to take New Paltz and some of the most D Ulster towns.

Capital Region:
NYSen_New_Capital

43. McDonald (R-Stillwater) EVEN Yellow
44. Farley (R-Schenectady) R+2 Teal
45. Little (R-Queensbury) EVEN Gray
46. Breslin (D-Albany) D+15 Lavender
51. Seward (R-Milford) R+2 Tan

Breslin gets a lot better packed by taking Troy and a daisy-chain of the most liberal Hudson Valley towns; they were wasting a lot of Albany County Rs on 46. To prevent the machine from exerting undue influence the remainder of Albany County is cracked between 43 and 51.

Central NY:
NYSen_New_Central

47. Griffo (R-Rome) R+4 Cyan
48. Ritchie (R-Ogdensburg) R+2 Pink
49. Valesky (ID-Oneida) D+9 Bright Green
50. DiFrancesco (R-Syracuse) R+1 Sky Blue
52. Libous (R-Binghamton) R+2 Olive
53. O'Mara (R-Horseheads) R+4 Orange
54. Nozzolio (R-Fayette) R+4 Lime Green

Not a whole lot of changes in Central NY. The biggest move is that Valesky is made more D with the addition of more of Syracuse to help out DiFrancesco. Valesky is the only ID that might have to think twice about a party switch but D+9 is definitely still very winnable for an upstate R. Ritchie may still be somewhat vulnerable but I think Aubertine was a bit of a fluke.

Western NY:
NYSen_New_West

55. Alesi (R-E. Rochester) D+2 Brown
56. Robach (R-Greece) D+7 Yellow
57. Young (R-Olean) R+4 Yellow-Green
58. Kennedy (D-South Buffalo) D+25 Pink
59. Gallivan (R-Elma) R+4 Navy
60. Grisanti (R-North Buffalo) D+1 Sky Blue
61. Ranzenhofer (R-Clarence) R+3 Cyan
62. Maziarz (R-Newfane) R+4 Indigo

A lot of changes in Western NY. Robach's seat is now totally safe for him and winnable for another R thanks to fatal crescent pop. loss and trading Liberal Brighton for conservative towns in West Monroe. It will still be a tossup without him but definitely not hopeless like his old seat. Alesi (a really slimy character even by the low standards of the NYSGOP) gets a somewhat marginal district but the white liberals he takes on in Rochester should appreciate his SSM vote. Ranzenhofer and Maziarz complete the cracking of Rochester. Grisanti almost entirely pulls out of Buffalo and loses half of Niagra Falls, getting  northern and eastern suburban towns to replace them; he should be fine there. Kennedy gets almost all of Buffalo and a lot of Niagra Falls for an epic vote sink. Young is brought in to crack the southtowns and Gallivan gets strung out hundreds of miles to drown Ithaca in WNY.

UPDATE:

I fixed the Dutchess and Albany County thing described in the comments. Turns out it's surprisingly easy and affects just 7 seats, none really substantially:

NYSen_New_CountyFix

39. Larkin (R-New Windsor) EVEN Blue
41. Saland (R-Poughkeepsie) D+1 Purple
42. Bonacic (R-Mt. Hope) EVEN Red
43. McDonald (R-Stillwater) D+1 Yellow
44. Farley (R-Schenectady) R+2 Teal
46. Breslin (D-Albany) D+11 Lavender
51. Seward (R-Milford) R+1 Tan

Basically 4 or 5 Hudson Valley Rs get weakened by a point or two but should still be fine.
shamlet :: Final NYS Senate (Updated!)
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Final NYS Senate (Updated!) | 71 comments
County Rule
If a county's population is by itself within the 10 % deviation for a senate district, it has to be in just one district. That is why Carlucci's current district is only in Rockland County. For this cycle, that only applies to Breslin and Carlucci's districts, so you need that fix to Breslin's district in your map.  
aka
Albany County has to be its own district
[ Parent ]
Crud.
Well that's a shame. Luckily it only moves the 46th down 4 points to D+11. Basically those towns can easily be distributed to 39/41/42/43/51. I don't have time to re-do at the moment so just imagine all those districts going one point more D.

R, new MA-7 (College) / MD-7 (Hometown)
[ Parent ]
okay
what deviation did you use for this? the full 10 % I presume?

Unfortunately with dave's app you can't map while accounting for the prisoner shift, I believe that is gonna move about 45,000 people from upstate to downstate. But good map!

[ Parent ]
Nope
I actually kept the deviation to 10K (3%) just to be safe due to the prisoner thing.

R, new MA-7 (College) / MD-7 (Hometown)
[ Parent ]
.
you mind putting the drf on google docs so people can mess around with it?  
[ Parent ]
If the mods are willing to
I could send it to them and you could e-mail the site to get it forwarded.

R, new MA-7 (College) / MD-7 (Hometown)
[ Parent ]
legislature is going for 5% this time; by Albany is inside that


40 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


Backing Akin for MO Senate
[ Parent ]
I think Dutchess needs to have its own district too
Dutchess Population: 297,488 (-3.3%)

R (MA-3)
Romney '12
[ Parent ]
Very good job
I like this.
I also think that the Is won't switch parties, they'll just play along.  

23, Male, R, NY-8 (New NY-10)
Their platform
is indistinguishable from the Republicans': Upstate Development and Mandate Relief. That's basically all the R caucus is about other than pork, patronage, and re-election. http://online.wsj.com/article/...

I think they will switch, probably as soon as the R majority looks in doubt. Klein wants power and he'd sell his soul to get it. And The NYSGOP will sell its soul to keep it. Call me crazy but I think it sounds like a match made in heaven.

R, new MA-7 (College) / MD-7 (Hometown)

[ Parent ]
Not sure
Klein actually got his start in the Senate by defeating Stephen Kaufman who himself was a party switcher to the GOP after getting lots of enticements from former Majority Leader Bruno.  Klein defeated him pretty handily in the net election.  So, Klein may not want to play the switching game.

34, Republican, NJ-5 (Redistricted to NJ-11).  Native of old NY-20.
[ Parent ]
But this 34th
is a lot further to the right than the old 34th. Remember they had to protect Spano in addition to Velella last year. A Republican in a suburban D+1 is not a bad bet. He might not switch, but he'll definitely have to stay on Republicans' good side.

But more to the point, Klein wants the ML chair and doesn't care which side he gets it from. If he can bring in 3 other new Republicans along the way I wouldn't put it past the caucus to give it to him after Skelos departs.

R, new MA-7 (College) / MD-7 (Hometown)

[ Parent ]
Good point
I didn't think of it that way.  After the attempted coup a couple of years ago...anything is possible.  Trying to protect Vellela and Spano definitely resulted in a dummymander but there was little choice at the time.

34, Republican, NJ-5 (Redistricted to NJ-11).  Native of old NY-20.
[ Parent ]
Dems outside the South
They won't switch parties.  They can go along their happy way and play both sides while having their names on the line that is most likely to garner the most votes.  And in NY, they will be cross endorsed by 4 or 5 parties.

34, Republican, NJ-5 (Redistricted to NJ-11).  Native of old NY-20.
[ Parent ]
Absolutely Fantastic!
You did a great job on Long Island and I see that Martins has a good district to stay in.  The new GOP district in Queens is great and I think that Avella's district could go if he runs for something else.

Staten Island looks good since Savino's seat never needed to be that Democratic.

Carlucci gives me indigestion becuase I am a native Rocklander and that seat has been with the GOP since the early 80's when the Dem was caught in the cookie jar.

I think we could take the Klein seat if he goes away or switches parties.  Guy Vellella held it for years.  I would love to have a Republican represent the Bronx again.  Vote sinking Andrea Stewart Cousins in Westchester was a good move.  Bob Cohen almost took out Suzi Oppenhemimer this past year (lengthy recount).

Upstate is solid too.  Buffalo moves make sense and sinking Valesky is a must.  Not every seat can be put in play.

I say pass this now!!!

34, Republican, NJ-5 (Redistricted to NJ-11).  Native of old NY-20.

A few questions
1. Ball is a whackamole. R's might want to play with his seat to oust him in a primary
2. Golden's gonna want either more Irish voters or Jewish McCain voters. Dems are pressing him hard  
3. Valesky probably safe as D in that Syracuse seat
4. Basically you flipped the 2 Buffalo seats by putting S Buff in the Grisanti seat & drawing a new inner suburb/edge city seat
5. Common Cause 62 map drew a new Lower manhattan seat; we avoided that. Great, but how?
6. You can get Avella down to D+3 if you do a rorschach spotch in NEQ ( put apartments in 16) & cross the Throgs. Some of that would hurt Klein though
7. Can't you get Ulrich into 63?  
Ball
Ball is a problem.  I think he can lose that district.  He eked a win in 2010 and lost the Westchester portion.  A lot of people don't like him and people chatter on the comments sections of the Journal News about his bizzare personal behavior.

34, Republican, NJ-5 (Redistricted to NJ-11).  Native of old NY-20.
[ Parent ]
#5
chances are Common Cause did what I did in NYC which was try to avoid borough splits where possible; if CC did that and went within 5% Manhatten can have all their seats stay on the island under either a 62 or 63 map.

This map retains the split twice instead (once with Brooklyn, the other with the Bronx)

40 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


Backing Akin for MO Senate

[ Parent ]
Responses
1. Nah, he's their loyal stooge now. They probably will fight tooth and nail for him.
2. That's doable, you could give him some more Borough Park easily. That 22 is basically his old one though and I didn't want to upset any Jewish groups that could be key to holding the new 27.
3. This is the upstate we're talking about. You do remember that we hold 2 D+20 seats?
4. Yes, but I think Grisanti can win that new suburban seat and Kennedy has nowhere else to go.
5. Squadron's seat is almost entirely Lower Manhattan.
6. I thought about that but I think keeping Klein happy takes precendence. Plus Silver/Cuomo may not sign off on specifically targeting a D incumbent.
7. Not really. Our bench is thin there so I didn't want to weaken the seat too much and he lives in a very D area. If I were Ulrich I'd certainly pass up the chance at the seat anyway; Albany is a near universal political career-ender.

R, new MA-7 (College) / MD-7 (Hometown)
[ Parent ]
Ok thanks
Onondaga County voting more heavily Dem downballot of late so a D+7 might be a reach. The fact we snuck into some D seat elsewhere doesn't prove more than luck

As for Avella his seat looks like a mess already; keep it in Queens but as a more Republican mess

At some point Ball's going to be uncontrollable & Skelos or successor needs to have a trap door to spring  

[ Parent ]
Responses
49 is probably Leans-Likely D. But the NYS GOP near-universally overperforms its baseline by 5-10 points in state senate races, especially above I-84 where the Senate is really the only place upstate has a say. A D+9 up there is not out of reach.

I poached about all the other Rs around there for 34 and 63. Avella does get weakened by a point on this map anyway so it's not out of reach.

Well, the Putnam organization is still pretty strong so I think they can get rid of him if need be. I also gave Ball heavily R Harrison, which is just about the only remaining source of R votes around there. The nice thing about having the IDs is that people like Ball can still screw up and we're still likely to have a cushion.

R, new MA-7 (College) / MD-7 (Hometown)

[ Parent ]
You might also want to get messy in mid-Westchester
You might want to swap out Latino for white precincts between 34 & 35. Might as well pack 35 fully while we're at it  

Still think Valesky needs more Rs

[ Parent ]
Oops
Meant 37
[ Parent ]
Suzi Oppenheimer retiring
So you may want to rejigger Wchester to find more Rs for 37
[ Parent ]
Bob Cohen
She was probably exhausted after last year's race when she actually had to run for the seat.  Cohen came within a hair of winning.

I say vote sink Klein and make Oppenheimer's seat more GOP friendly.

34, Republican, NJ-5 (Redistricted to NJ-11).  Native of old NY-20.

[ Parent ]
She having some major surgery later in the year
and just didnt have the heart for a tough run.
[ Parent ]
Oh wow
This makes things a whole lot harder, I'll have to play around with it. Trouble is there are a whole lot of Dems in Westchester. I think what might be best is to smoosh 37 into Stewart-Cousins's seat, vote sink Avella, and make a new GOP seat in Northern Queens. That's a major project though... I'll start playing around with it as soon as I diary my TX map.

R, new MA-7 (College) / MD-7 (Hometown)
[ Parent ]
(light bulb goes on)
Ok, how's this for a radical idea: Move Oppenheimer's seat to Brooklyn so that you can create both a Russian seat and a Jewish seat. Then you can make a single R seat in Queens and protect Avella.

R, new MA-7 (College) / MD-7 (Hometown)
[ Parent ]
regarding the drf
you can just send it to inbox101010 (one word) at hotmail.

thanks bro

[ Parent ]
Less extreme ideas
A) run 34 to Port Chester instead of Yonkers
Link Woodlawn to E BX w/bacon strip
B) give Yonkers nabes/Eastchester to 37
C)search out black/Latino precincts in mid Wchster for 35
D) Add T Neck to Avella

Thoughts?  

[ Parent ]
Where's the post Oppenheimer map?
Can we get a seat for Bob Cohen?  
[ Parent ]
I'm working on it, okay?
I do have a day job, and getting another R seat around there is proving to be more problematic than I expected - You can't extract any more Rs from the upstate so you have to pretty much re-arrange the entire city and that requires recalibrating a number of assumptions w/r/t Savino, Klein, Storobin/Fidler, and Avella.

R, new MA-7 (College) / MD-7 (Hometown)
[ Parent ]
You, the man
If anyone can...

I played with redoing Engel and IF you can ignore the municipal lines you can draw a 50 % Latino CD reaching into Wash Heights. So, can we use minority concerns to do a Bronx/Westchester SD that skips around Yonkers, White Plains, Elmsford et al and leaves a very white more R remainder seat in S/C Westcster?  

[ Parent ]
VRA
What I wonder is if there is a VRA claim in Long Island, because you can draw a district that is VAP 31 W 34 B 27 H 6 A in Nassau County - any Republican map has to cut up those voters in order to keep all the districts swingy. Smith (in your map) doesn't need those voters to have a 50%+1 AA VAP district.

Because if a map like this goes through, that means Senate Dems got a terrible map for them and I figure they might sue for such a district.

They wouldn't
Cutting up minorities is par for the course in NYS and the Assembly Dems are just as guilty.

20, R, TX-17 (home & college)
Member of the RRH Small Government Caucus
8.12,-1.44
[ Parent ]
Take a look at the Assembly Map
Gerrymandered, but much less so than the State Senate Map. Anyway, all that is irrelevant to what a court would say. Civil rights groups/goo-goos are clamoring on this front for a minority majority seat in LI and an Asian majority seat in Flushing to be added. We'll see if they actually happen.  
[ Parent ]
VRA claims require a single cohesive minority group


40 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


Backing Akin for MO Senate
[ Parent ]
Agreed
Just ask Chief Justice Roberts.

20, R, TX-17 (home & college)
Member of the RRH Small Government Caucus
8.12,-1.44
[ Parent ]
I really like how Roberts inquired Garza on TX-33
He's so straightforward and very candid. I am guessing that Justice Kennedy is sharing similar opinion with Roberts on this one, looking at the way he questioned Garza.  
[ Parent ]
Right
this upsets me so much on this site. So much of the time people would draw diaries referring to districts as "the VRA seat" when the seats were not VRA protected at all. The ONLY seats that the Supreme Court says are protected by the VRA are compact seats where one single, cohesive minority group exceeds 50% of the VAP. Minority majority seats where a coalition of ethnic groups constitute a minority are protected only in the state of Florida under the state constitution.

Technically, if Texas wanted to sue over it, I'm pretty sure they could get away with making TX-23 majority hispanic by VAP without having to consider CVAP, since the Supreme Court has never indicated that CVAP is a valid consideration.  

Like a boss...

[ Parent ]
If a seat with a either 40% B or H VAP could be drawn in Nassau or Suffolk
I'd be worried; minority coalition seats usually end up electing white D's & NY courts know it

[ Parent ]
No need to protect Oppenheimer!
She announced she's retiring so there is no way the GOP would make her open seat a Dem vote sink.

Also For Queens I like the open R+4 GOP seat. But was it possible to make Avella's district more Dem and the open seat more GOP? Also was it possible to make the Queens Asian seat more GOP by cutting into Avella's GOP areas? I think a D+6 Asian seat could be winnable for Koo while a D+19 is completely out of reach.

Koo's City Council Seat
Do you know how Democratic his city council seat is?

34, Republican, NJ-5 (Redistricted to NJ-11).  Native of old NY-20.
[ Parent ]
Too many Dems in NE Queens to try that
If you tried to put a seat together which was Asian maj VAP and D+ <9; the remaining seat would be a white Democratic vote sink.  We have neither now & little hope of either  doing it this way
[ Parent ]
Well if you write off Avella's seat and make it a Dem vote sink
Could you also make an open GOP seat and make a heavily Asian seat with a more competive margin?  
[ Parent ]
Where?
You can draw a) 2R possible seats-1D Asian
b) 1R 1whiteD 1D Asian.  There are a lot of A 50% O55-60% in NEQ.
but no real thumping white R precincts to make an Asian majority R lean seat. If you add the 55% Mac precincts you lose Asian majority; plus you have some white 75% Obama apartment develops near Nassau & who gets those?
[ Parent ]
Losing the Asian majority is OK
It just needs to be an Asian plurality. I would combine those 55% Mac precincts with the Asian district. Then I would vote sink Avella's district dump those white 75% in his district and even run Avella up into Nassau to take out some Dem precincts in Jack Martins district.

[ Parent ]
Problem is the 75% Asian precincts are 75% Dem
And NE Queens is very hodgepodge in ethnicity. Give DRA a try maybe you'll do better than I do. As for cracking Nassau better to give Smith more 80%+ Dem nabes than give Avella the 65-70% parts of Great Neck  
[ Parent ]
The problem is not all 75% Dem districts in NY are the same
Some might go 75% for Obama but will swing for the right candidate in certain elections. I remember back in the 90's (before DRA was invented) taking with a friend on a GOP NY State Senate staff who helped draw the 90's NY state senate map. We literally walked the district back then to figure out which buildings we wanted and which we didnt and zig-zagged the map accordingly. The big talk was of how Bill Green got screwed because they replaced the tombstone NYCHA projects on the lower east side with high population and low voter turnout with high voter turnout NYCHA buildings on the Upper West Side. Green developed relationships with the people in those areas he lost. So while they voted 90%+ Dem on a presidential level he could still get 30%+ of the vote there.

To figure out which Asian districts the GOP would want to put in a Koo district I'm sure they are looking at his 2009 city council race and going ED by ED to figure out which ones they want and dont want.

[ Parent ]
city rule
Syracuse is only 150 thousand ppl so I think it must remain unsplit. Rochester only 210 k as well, so both unsplittable.  
or
Is that rule only for Towns and not cities
[ Parent ]
Only for towns
Both are split in the current map.

R, new MA-7 (College) / MD-7 (Hometown)
[ Parent ]
Why 'Vote Sink' Oppenheimer When She's Retiring?
Is there anyway you can put her seat in play while keeping the other seats in GOP hands?  
Did this before she announced
And yeah, I'm working on that one. I still haven't found a good solution yet but I think it may involve eliminating her district entirely (by way of merging it with 35) and moving it to Queens or Brooklyn.

R, new MA-7 (College) / MD-7 (Hometown)
[ Parent ]
Westminster
It looks like ideally Westminster should be in parts of 3 districts.

One district all contained within Westminster.

One district crossing into the county north.

Another district crossing into the Bronx.

40 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


Backing Akin for MO Senate

[ Parent ]
Thoughts on this great map
1. I didn't think that the Upstate would be that easy to gerrymander. The North Country in particular troubled, but you drew the lines beautifully.

2. You drew Grisanti the seat that I'd like him to have, but I'm not sure that he'd like it.

3. Would we really have that great a great shot at the 'super-Jewish' seat? I could see some local Jewish D just handing our rear ends to us there, even in an R+21.

19, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

R+21 is R+21
If you can't win an R+21, you don't deserve to be in power. If two thirds of your constituents voted for John McCain, and you can't convince a majority of them to vote for you, then you don't deserve to be in power. If they voted for Bob Turner, aka some dude, and that was in a D+6, then they can vote for some dude in an R+21. Having a bench matters in an R+3.  

Like a boss...
[ Parent ]
That said
I know nothing about NY politics, and so cannot really answer your question. I just think the state of the GOP is incredibly sad when we have LCL talking about an R+4 seat in Arizona as a lean Dem district and you asking if we can win an R+21 district. That's not at all a reflection on either of you. You both have strong arguments. It's just sad that no one even questions whether Dems can win D+4 districts, and there's no place in the country where you could even imagine a Dem losing a D+21.  

Like a boss...
[ Parent ]
That's the nature of the coalitions.
The Ds tend to have more voters that don't split tickets from their presidential vote than Rs do. That's just how it is in most parts of the country. We did have our own Gene Taylor, and his name was Bill Green. He used to represent a district on Manhattan's Upper East Side, and gave us every vote that he could, especially on taxes. He was double-bunked with a Democrat in 1992 and lost. So it goes. A lot of voters will vote R on the presidential level because of various issues (socon positions, defense, etc.), and D for Congress because of economics (and the local Dem can also be a socon or a dfense conservative or what have you). It's a lot easier to convince someone who doesn't have a lot of money to split their to vote for you because you'll get them more money, or at least stick it to that rich guy up the next hiil over than it is to get an undesperate rich (or comfortably middle-class) person to split their ticket for you because you'll protect them from the taxman. It's because the second person often doesn't feel as much distrust or urgency about the matter as he/she does about 'women's issues' or 'marriage equality.' Those are the breaks.

19, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
*defense


19, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
I agree with you in many ways
I think the economic arguments help explain part of the reason why the Democrats had a stranglehold on the House for 40 years until 1994.  Districts going for Reagan and Bush multiple times were solidly Democratic at the congressional and certainly...local level.  

As for Bill Green - that's a great analogy to Gene Taylor.  I think that reason Bill Green lost in 1992 was a result of redistricting attaching some small unfamiliar areas of Brookly (Williamsburg) and Queens (Astoria).  He lost both to Carolyn Maloney but continued to win the Manhattan portion.  Ironically, the Bklyn/Queens areas added were more conservative than the East side but those folks were too used to voting Democrat.

34, Republican, NJ-5 (Redistricted to NJ-11).  Native of old NY-20.

[ Parent ]
Green got raw deal in redistricting
State Senator Roy Goodman (R-Manhattan) (who was always a little envious of Green) basically sold Green out when they were redrawing the lines. Carolyn Maloney was a NY City Councilwoman at the time and only ran for Congress because the election was a free run for her (she didnt have to give up her day job to do it). No one thought she had a chance. In fact she was in a Greek diner writing her concession speech when she found out she had won. What killed Green was the Astoria, Williamsburg and Upper West Side areas that was added to the district. Green got blown away there. He just couldnt fight the straight line voting in those areas. The other thing that hurt him was the infamous "Vote for the two Bills" flyers that urged voters to vote for Bill Green AND Bill Clinton. The Green campaign screwed up and distributed the flyer to all voters instead of just micro targeting them to Dems. So GOP voters in the district got it too and there was a surprising GOP undervote in his congressional race.
[ Parent ]
Only so many persuable voters on the East Side
So whatever lines Green got in 92 were going to suck: as it turns out they couldn't even hold Goodman's state senate seat over the long haul
[ Parent ]
Actually they held Goodman's Senate seat for another 10 years
and won it 6 times after Green's loss. In addition the GOP won Maloney's vacant City Council seat in a special election. Granted winning anything in the UES today would be next to impossible. Although GOP mayoral candidates still get over 70% of the vote there the GOP infrastructure and money to win those local races by pushing their unique brand of Rockefeller Republicanism is long gone.
[ Parent ]
Rs might eke out a leg win on the UES
But the Dems would have to nominate a candidate mutually radical, incompetent & sleazy; then the NYT would feel a public duty to derail him & let Rs borrow the seat for a term or two. Don't think at this point we could beat a central casting Dem hack that didn't offend people there

Other point is you can draw a 75% Bloomberg AD on the UES but as the district gets larger it out of necessity gets less cohesive & more Democratic. One reason Goodman outlasted Green  

[ Parent ]
It hasn't been for a lack of trying over the years
The Republicans have dumped a stupid amount of money trying to take back some of the Assembly and City Council seats on the East Side that they used to have.  We dumped a huge amount fighting Liz Kreuger a couple of times when Goodman retired (in an effort to avoid defeat).

I never knew that Goodman screwed Green over in redistricting.  What a stupid petty thing to do.  Was Goodman also responsible for the Pierre Rinfret disaster in 1990?  I think he came out of the Manhattan GOP "organization."

34, Republican, NJ-5 (Redistricted to NJ-11).  Native of old NY-20.

[ Parent ]
Yes. Goodman hand picked Rinfret
mainly because he was terrified that conservatives and pro-lifers might take over the NYS GOP and mess up his ability to get elected as a Rockefeller Republican in Manhattan.

The Goodman/Green rivalry went back all the way to their days at Harvard! Goodman used to call Green "Sedgwick"(Green's real 1st name) to get under Green's skin. Goodman always resented Green getting the nomination and winning his special election in 1978. Goodman always kind of felt it should of been him.

But dont hate on Roy Goodman too much. Overall he was a very good man and is quite sick right now.

[ Parent ]
I always thought he was pretty decent
That's why I was a little surprised that he screwed Green over in redistricting.  Really, getting elected as a Republican in Manhattan is an accomplishment in and of itself and you can't expect them to be on the conservative side even half the time.  

I had no idea he was sick.  

34, Republican, NJ-5 (Redistricted to NJ-11).  Native of old NY-20.

[ Parent ]
NY Coalitions
Voting in NY can be quite strange.  The reason that a seemingly solid GOP district in Brooklyn could go Democrat is because of the loyalties of the local Hasidic community.  No one can say that they are locked in with either party.  Israel matters to them clearly but so do a number of other issues.  If you look at election returns, you will see precints vote something like 785-6.  

Take a look at what Michael Barone writes about it.  I remember him noticing that New Square (Rockland Cty) voted nearly unanimously for George HW Bush in 1988 while switching all of their votes for Daniel Patrick Moynihan for Senate.


34, Republican, NJ-5 (Redistricted to NJ-11).  Native of old NY-20.

[ Parent ]
D winning this seat not that much help to NY Dems
Kruger was the most unreliable vote in their caucus and toyed with crossing the line in the '09 coup. The best Dems could get there was a guy forced to split on tough votes who'd soak up campaign $ to hold the seat; and whom they'd need to baby sit lest he party split.  
[ Parent ]
Final NYS Senate (Updated!) | 71 comments
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Elections have consequences -- from the race for President to the race for one seat on a city council. The political economist Max Weber wrote that the state possesses a monopoly on the legitimate use of force. But in the United States, the state is divided into myriad federal, state, and local entities. And the elections to fill those entities are the products of the fascinating interactions between campaigns, party affiliations, voter turnout, and the media spotlight. Red Racing Horses analyzes those elections -- from a Republican-leaning perspective -- to keep a close eye on the process of electing officials, and to offer our perspective on the election-related issues of the day. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog.

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