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Political Roundup For February 20, 2012

by: SCRep

Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 09:00:00 AM EST


President

Maine: Washington County voted Saturday and gave Ron Paul the majority of its votes, but not enough to overtake Mitt Romney's lead in last week's Maine caucuses. Paul won 163 votes; Romney had 80 votes, Rick Santorum received 57 votes, and Newt Gingrich 4. In a recount announced on Friday, Romney was ahead in the state by 239 votes.

Gingrich: Newt Gingrich is hoping to resurrect his presidential campaign by winning Georgia's primary on Super Tuesday. Gingrich criticized both Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum for pulling out of a presidential debate scheduled in the Peach State on March 1. Gingrich is confident that his strategy, where he seems to be focusing more on Southern states, will propel him back to the front of the pack.

Romney: Restore Our Future, the Super PAC supporting Mitt Romney, announced it has bought almost $6 million in new ad time. The group is spending almost $2 million this week on ads in eight states and on national cable. In Michigan, the super PAC has bought an additional $876,000 for commercials beginning next Tuesday on top of the $640,000 it said it is spending this week in the state. Romney and his allies are outspending Rick Santorum and his backers by about a 3 to 1 margin in Michigan.

Santorum: With Mitt Romney in Salt Lake City to celebrate the 10th anniversary of the 2002 Winter Olympics, Rick Santorum said Romney's leadership of those games amounted to pork barrel spending and hypocrisy. At the time, Romney's Olympics got more federal dollars ($1.3 billion) than any previous U.S. Olympics. Romney's campaign continues to paint Santorum as a heavy supporter of earmarks during his days in the U.S. Senate.

Senate

Minnesota: Afghanistan veteran and former Vets for Freedom executive director Pete Hegseth is expected to announce a Minnesota U.S. Senate bid against Democrat Amy Klobuchar.

Missouri: Republican state Auditor Tom Schweich is considering getting into the race for the Republican nomination to take on Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill. The Republican field of Rep. Todd Akin, former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman, and St. Louis businessman John Brunner, has left many Republicans unimpressed and hoping for a late entry into the race.

House

AZ-4: Arizona Sheriff Paul Babeu is being accused of threatening to deport a former boyfriend when he wouldn't agree to keep their relationship secret. Babeu's campaign has so far denied the allegations made in the Phoenix New Times article, beyond that he is in fact gay. Rep. Paul Gosar is now looking much likelier to win the Republican primary here.

AZ-8: Jesse Kelly leads the Republican race for the special election to replace Rep. Gabrielle Giffords. A Wenzel Strategies survey, paid for by Citizens United Political Victory Fund, puts Kelly at 43 percent to State Sen. Frank Antenori's 18 percent and sports commentator Dave Sitton's 10 percent. Twenty percent are undecided. The primary is April 17, with former Giffords aide Ron Barber the likely Democratic nominee.

IL-2: Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi has joined President Obama and other top Democrats in endorsing Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. for reelection. Jackson faces former Rep. Debbie Halvorson in a primary next month. Halvorson has made the House Ethics Committee's ongoing investigation of Jackson a central issue in the campaign.

NC-6: Guilford County Commissioner Billy Yow (R) filed for Congress against 14 term North Carolina Rep. Howard Coble. Coble, who is 80 years old and has suffered some health issues in recent months, announced he was running for reelection in January.

Redistricting

Kansas: House Speaker Mike O'Neal is pushing a new congressional redistricting plan that would split the Kansas City area between two districts and put part of it in with the vast, rural 1st District. The Kansas Senate has approved a bipartisan congressional redistricting plan, but the House and Gov. Sam Brownback seem to be at odds with the Senate over lines they believe are not favorable enough to the Republican Party.

Minnesota: A state judicial panel is expected to release new legislative and congressional district maps on Tuesday.

Ohio: The Ohio Supreme Court ruled Friday that it won't consider a lawsuit challenging new state House and Senate districts before this year's elections because Democrats behind the claim unreasonably delayed its filing. The court says it will allow the suit to continue with respect to the 2014 to 2020 elections that will be affected by the new maps.

Redistricting Roundup: Friday's redistricting roundup from Ballotpedia.

Wyoming: The Wyoming House passed a legislative redistricting bill, which was expected to encounter serious opposition in the Senate. A major problem from the Senate's perspective was that the House plan put Sen. Curt Meier of LaGrange into the same Senate district as Wayne Johnson of Cheyenne. The legislatures job was to realign the state's 60 House districts, nestled in 30 Senate districts, to conform to 2010 census figures. Wyoming's population grew 14 percent from 2000 to 2010 to total 563,000.

SCRep :: Political Roundup For February 20, 2012
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Roundup
VA poll: Allen up 2 on Kaine, Obama trailing Rick and Mitt by 4-3, Mitt crushing Ron in the primary.
http://www.cnu.edu/cpp/pdf/Sur...

Santorum crushing Newt in TX, Mitt barely in third place. Rick and Mitt are up 14-13 on Obama.
Romney and Obama and Paul and Newt of course are very unpopular in TX. Santorum is popular. State as a whole this is.
Obama approval 39/54.
Romney and Obama.
http://www.texastribune.org/te...

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


Note
In both of these southern states, Rick is running a point better against Obama than Mitt.
Of course things change over the campaign, but a snapshot it is.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
In Rasmussen today
Rick is a point closer to Barack too.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
57% in VA (to 38%)
Wanted the other candidates on the ballot. I doubt Mitt would be leading in VA if Santorum would have been on the ballot. ATM it would have been a strong Santorum state. Of course many things can still change.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
With the VA and IA polls this weekend
Maybe the situation isn't dire. The IA poll is LVs, the VA poll is RVs.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Agreed
After that Obama spike for a few weeks the past few days seem to be coming back down to earth.  Maybe the gas prices?

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
The polling field days are last week though


26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Gas Prices
Have been going up for about a month now.  It is starting to show up in polling now as well.  Rising gas prices are a political slow bleed Obama has little to no power over.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Is there anything he can do?
Domestic production is up pretty big since 2009.  Is it all Iran pretty much?

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Laudatory State of the Union coverage . . . .
and associated bounce have faded.

[ Parent ]
The dire
has been the US economy for three years.  CBS has noticed that there is an underclass of unemployed people:

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/w...

You can say the economy is improving but there has no period of this high of rate of unemployment for this long of period since the 1930s.  Even those of us who are working are in economic stress as the middle class has not seen a decline in our real income and lower housing values.


[ Parent ]
Gas Prices
Any bounce Obama saw because of the economy is now being mitigated by rising gas prices.  I don't think Obama can win with gas over $4 a gallon for a sustained period of time.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Gas Prices is bigger than we all think
Gas prices hurt more than just rural, exurban, and far suburban (covering all bases since there's argument of which is which) areas. They also impact inflation, shipping costs, businesses dependent on shipping, food costs, etc.

I pay for these not only when I go to the gas station, but when I go to the local Meijer's, Staples, etc.


MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
andyroo
I know your model for Santorum somehow winning in Nov had Obama winning VA.  If Santorum could steal those EVs, it would mean a WI win isn't necessary.  I still believe he has a better chance in FLA than you think...

[ Parent ]
True
In all fairness, for the time being, I don't see any Obama path to 270 if both Iowa and Virginia are flipping red. I just find it rather odd that, in spite this, his national numbers appear to be holding steady.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Jeb 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
I love either Kansas plan
but this one is my favorite as it splits KC. The other one that attachs Lawrence to KS1 is okay but does not help Yoder.  I personally do not think Yoder needs much help and is set for a long house career.  Kansas does not tend to elect KC area folks to state wide office. In fact I only recall one senator/Gov from that area.  Surely there are some other statewide officials for minor offices but none jump to my mind.  

Question to ponder
Did Gosar know that something is going on with Babeu or at least smelled something and therefore jumped to the safe seat? It's not like he didn't have an even shot in AZ-1, while until now he was a big underdog in the new seat.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


Gosar had been hinting
The Gosar campaign certainly knew that Babeu is gay, and were sending not very coded message about how his "family values" were a better match for the district and saying that Babeu would have been "more comfortable" in the 1st district because it was more liberal.

It isn't clear how much, if any, of a gay-baiting or a whisper campaign they were prepared to use on Babeu, but clearly some of Gosar's messaging had a sub-text about Babeu's sexual orientation.

Whether he chose to run in the 4th because of a perceived Babeu vulnerability seems less likely to me - I suspect that, as a weak incumbent, he looked at the perpetual fight for re-election in a swing district like the 1st and decided that running in the blood red 4th was a better political move in the long term.  


[ Parent ]
News links
Jesse Jackson urges Gov. Andrew Cuomo to veto plan to redraw district lines

http://www.nydailynews.com/new...

UT/TT Poll: Santorum Crushing GOP Hopefuls in Texas
http://www.texastribune.org/te...

Minn. politicians await: Redistricting announcement expected Tuesday
http://www.wctrib.com/event/ar...

Potential for extra primary election has counties scrambling
http://www.democratandchronicl...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Santorum's Catholic Gap
We saw it in Iowa.  Now we are seeing it in Michigan.  Why is Romney performing so much better among Catholics than Santorum?

28, Republican, PA-6

Generally much less right wing


26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
I'd say
It reflects the 'Catholic In Name Only' phenomenon. I think it's safe to say there are a lot more 'cafeteria Catholics' than there are 'cafeteria evangelicals' so to speak. Is the latter even a coherent concept?

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Speaking as a Catholic
Many Catholics are generally low-key in demeanor and prefer to work within institutions to make incremental change.  There's something off-putting about a layman getting in front of the social issue parade; there's more deference to the hierarchy to do "Christ" while elected officials focus on "Caesar".  

[ Parent ]
Maybe "Catholics" aren't Catholics
I'd love to see the split between practicing Catholics and those who call themselves "Catholic" because their parents and Grandparents were Catholic. Those two groups do not like each other, and Santorum is particularly off-putting to one of those groups, while extremely well liked by the other.

It one of the same reasons why John Kerry lost among Catholics. Pro-abortion "catholics" are most despised among actual Catholics.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
I was at Mass yesterday
And while I'm not a "social liberal" the tenor of Santorum's rhetoric is counterproductive IMHO.  

The Bush-Kerry race is evidence a less provocative approach to social issues yields better results for the GOP

What I find amazing is how many non-Catholics have us all figured out.  


[ Parent ]
Yep
I know several very devout Catholcis who attend mass at least twice a week who never voted for Santorum in Pennsylvania.  As they say his approach to social issues is foreign to them.  

I think a lot of his problems in Pennsylvania stemmed from the evangelical style rhethoric he used.  Evangelicals compose maybe 5% of Pennsylvanians once you exclude groups like Amish and Mennoites who don't vote.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
Mouths can be a problem
People in general across the board tend to get more offended by the mouth than by the vote, even if there's agreement.

Personally, I've strongly social conservative on abortion, more center to center right on other issues outside of 2nd Amendment (which has a unique following).

The best non-Reagan Republican candidate Michigan's had in my lifetime was John Engler. Engler was Catholic and voted largely that way on social issues. Pro-life, against the death penalty, and against gay marriage and doctor assistant suicide.

Engler talked about those issues, especially with the Kevorkian issue, but he was about the economy first. His slogan was pure Michigan at its finest. "Tough enough to bring Michigan back" and that's how he styled his campaign. His campaign style is probably the opposite of Mitt Romney's.

I see Santorum right now trying to deflect the media and 2008 quotes in trying to push the issues back to the economy. If I was Santorum, I'd be going back to my lawyer training and turning every question back into the economy. "I never attempted to ban contraceptives in the senate and won't as president, now let's get back to the economy which is the biggest issue in our country right now"

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
I should also mention with that comment
If I haven't said it already, I'm Catholic. Practicing.

I wouldn't have made that comment if I wasn't.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
because that's not the real divide anymore
There are socially conservative Catholics and socially liberal Catholics.

The socially conservative Catholics have more in common with socially conservative Protestants than socially liberal Catholics.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO Pattonville School District, Maryland Heights Fire District (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
PPP Arizona teaser
PublicPolicyPolling@ppppolls "We still have Romney up a smidge in Arizona, but pretty close race. Results up in about an hour"

19, Republican, KS-03
Standing strong with Senator Roberts and Governor Brownback.


Arizona
So I'll guess Romney up 3.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Romney up 3
36-33.  Booya!

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
2/22 debate
The debate in Arizona this Wednesday is looking more and more like a do-or-die event for Romney. The irony is that we're almost getting to the point where Santorum would be the one better off without the debate.

This might be the first GOP debate that I actually watch in full this election cycle.

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
4 Delegates
Santorum has 4 delegates and you've been touting him as the nominee if Romney loses Michigan or Arizona or Ohio. He needs to win more than elections that don't count. The Detroit Lions went 4-0 in the pre-season the year they went winless.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
You're pretending
That delegates chosen at caucuses in CO/MN won't lead to many delegates when they are officially chosen.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
AZ
AZ-CD04 I disagress with that Paul Gosar will win the nod because he is a weak campaigner.It nothing new that Paul Babeu was gay it been know for sometime I have seen it on the web before . It will come down to how he stand his ground or will he go down like Cain.
AZ-CD08 Funny that this poll didn't list Martha McSally because she the one setting fires in the media.
Will Ron Barber ran on a tea party is evil campaign?

32, Male,NH, Conservative Republican , NH-CD02

You got stand for something or you will fall for anything"

Aaron Tippin


PPP - MI, Santorum up 4
http://www.publicpolicypolling...

Area Code:
231 - 44-22 Santorum - West/NW MI. Muskegon to Traverse City
248 - 36-32 Romney - Oakland County
269 - 48-35 Santorum - Hastings, Battle Creek, Kalamazoo, St Joe
313 - 43-22-21 - Romney, Paul, Santorum. Big shift in Wayne County - Is this the Grosse Pointes or Redford/Westland? Paul vote is probably Dearborn.
517 - 40-33 Santorum - Big shift to Santorum. Lansing area, Western Livingston County, Hillsdale, Jackson.
586 - tied at 38. Macomb County.
616 - 37-35 Santorum - Grand Rapids, Holland, Ionia
734 - 40-29 Romney - Big shift to Romney. Ann Arbor, Ypsi, Southernmost Livingston County, Monroe. I'm not surprised here with Ann Arbor.
810 - 46-19-18 Santorum-Paul-Romney. Eastern Livingston, Flint area, Lapeer, Port Huron.
906 - 29-27-21 - Santorum-Romney-Paul - The UP. Small sample of numbers fluctuated here.
989 - 39-29 Santorum-Romney - From Saginaw to Northeastern Michigan.

Based on this
Santorum takes - CD 1, CD 2, maybe 3, CD 4, CD 5, CD 6, CD 7, CD 10 (thanks to thumb),  
Romney takes - CD 9, 11, probably 12, 13, maybe 14.
8 is up for grabs. The new 8 has a lot of Oakland County.


MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


Kent & Macomb
Look like the ballgame here

[ Parent ]
Interesting two Counties
Kent County is a low key establishment county, but also very socially conservative with a lot of good government types. That's Vern Ehlers country.

Macomb County is a rabble rousing county and coming from me, that's a big compliment. They do things their own way. In general, anti-tax, very pro-gun, pro-life, very anti-big business, and don't like government in their lives much. One on one, I'd pick Santorum over Romney here. If Newt makes an impact in Michigan, it will be here. Ron Paul could get a bigger share here too.


MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
Too small samples
Huge MOE.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Close counties in 08
Mitt's gonna win white collar Detroit areas. He's going to lose rural counties. I am surprised he's running so poorly in Traverse City but that AC may be dominated by the Muskegon area  

[ Parent ]
Traverse City
231 is a large area code. It covers Traverse City, Petoskey, Boyne, Cadillac, Muskegon, Ludington, Big Rapids, Manistee, and Kalkaska.

My gut tells me that Romney will do well on the money coasts and get hammered in the white working class inland.

In addition, Traverse City and Grand Traverse County often vote differently, so Romney could easily win the city and lose the county.

In the Detroit area, my guy tells me the following.

Oakland County - Romney, but by how much. Bloomfields and Birmingham are going his way, and I except Farmington Hills, Novi, Northville, Commerce, and Rochester/Troy areas to go as well. However, the outer edges have a stronger social conservative tinge to them (as does Troy and Rochester to a lesser extent). Will they go Romney because they view him stronger on economic issues, or Santorum for social issues. North Oakland is very conservative both fiscally and socially. That does not necessarily mean advantage Santorum, because there really isn't a strong consensus conservative running.

Wayne County - Close. Romney will win the Grosse Pointes and probably Grosse Ile, Northville, Plymouth, and maybe Canton. Downriver, Westland, and Redford could make it interesting if the crossovers show up. Livonia's a tough one to read.

Macomb County - Not as blue collar as it once was, but the attitudes still remain. From me that's a compliment. It's a tough county to read and quite capable of the unexpected. If Newt campaigned here, I think he could have taken this county.

While I don't count these areas as Detroit area, some do:

Washtenaw County - Leans Romney.
Lapeer County - Leans Santorum
St Clair County - Leans Santorum
Livingston County - Up for grabs.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
CA-26
Brownley running to take on Strickland/Parks.

Good get by Democrats?

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


Julia Brownley?
Isn't she too liberal for this district? She currently represents an Assembly district that is 49%D-26%R. Another thing is CA-26 is a predominantly Ventura County district, but Brownley is from Santa Monica.  

[ Parent ]
I'm sure that will be said
But I'm struggling to find any real policy differences between her and Bennett.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Bennett
Well, Bennett should be a stronger candidate for the Dems as he is a real Ventura County guy. I believe he is serving on the county board of Supervisors for quite some time now.  

[ Parent ]
Brownley
Also reprsents a very large chunk of Ventura in the Assembly too though.

But yes, Bennett was the ideal.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
That District Is Less Than Half Oxnard
I'd say the real center of her district is the Agoura Hills-Calabasas-Hidden Hills-Westlake Village-Malibu-Santa Monica part.

So while there's some overlap, I'm not sure there's enough.

Also, a Santa Monica Democrat will certainly be to the Left of even most CA Democrats.

Stickland is going to be hard to beat with a candidate like this IMO.  


[ Parent ]
I too think Bennett
is stronger for us, being more Ventura County than Brownley. The 1st supervisorial district went about 60% Obama, less than AD-41, which was about 68%.

There was also a push to get Brad Sherman to run here, as he represented part of this district in the 90s, but he is sticking with the 30th.

http://www.theelectionsgeek.com
31, Libertarian, Female, CA-31 (hometown), UT-02 (current)


[ Parent ]
Santorum up big in OK
http://soonerpoll.com/tulsa-wo...

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


GA
We really need another Georgia poll, and Tennessee would be nice to see as well. I suspect that Santorum is now close enough in Georgia that a AZ/MI/WA sweep would catapult him ahead of Gingrich.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
We had a TN poll
That had Santorum leading IIRC.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Newt's final chapter
At this rate, I bet Santorum starts leading soon in Georgia polling.  

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Jeb 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Romney up 36-33 in AZ
http://www.publicpolicypolling...

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


Flake romping in the primary


26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Compared to the 2 polls
That had Mitt up high single digits, maybe Santorum is actually gaining there.
The debate should really matter, but AZ has early voting, so the effect will be much more important in MI.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
ouch!
To state the obvious, that is very perilous territory for Romney considering how he tends to have turnout issues such that polls have more often than not overstated his strength.

I'm starting to buy into the 'white-knight' scenario as a genuine possibility.

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
Not going to happen
Whose going to be the White Knight?  Any of the proposed White Knights will be distrusted by the base.  Are social conservatives really going to latch onto Christie when they find out he is pro-civil unions, anti-gun, etc...?  

It is going to be between Santorum and Romney.  Either can win or lose the general, but it depends a lot on what happens at your local gas pump.  Santorum can be for banning contraception all he wants if gas hits $4.50 a gallon and stays there.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
2nd Amendment is always an issue
Romney's anti-gun despite what he says. He actually signed a ban.

Christie, like Romney (Massachusetts) is from a state that has a strong anti-gun tradition compared to the rest of the country. From what I've seen with Christie, his stance comes across as "Don't rock the boat" However, what will happen if something controversial like National Reciprocity comes to his desk?

Personally, I'd like to have seen Daniels run. He would have gotten my vote. If Perry, Huntsman, or Pawlenty were still in, I would have voted for one of them.


MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
Overstated his strength?
He outperformed his polling in Iowa, Florida, and New Hampshire.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
And underperformed
In SC/CO/MN/MO.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
"more often than not"
Is a key qualifier.

More importantly, Romney did not substantially 'beat the spread' in any of those states. He fell short in two of three.

FL RCP Avg: Romney +13.0
FL Actual: Romney +14.5

NH RCP Avg: Romney +20.0
NH Actual: Romney +16.4

IA RCP Avg: Romney +1.3
IA Actual: Santorum +0.1

The only state where Romney has outperformed is Nevada (+28.9 actual vs. +22.5 poll average).

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
BTW
I like how the McCain endorsement is a 2-1 net negative for Romney. I think this is emblematic of exactly what is most misguided about how Romney has run his 'establishment' campaign.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Agree
And what's even more odd is how he keeps going for these endorsements.  

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Evangelicals
They're oversampling evangelicals, males, the 46-65 segment, and other races. While none of these are that horribly overepresented, they are all 3-6 points higher than they were in the 2008 Presidential primary.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
FL-22: Is this already posted here?
Broward County Commissioner Chip LaMarca is seriously thinking about running against Adam Hasner in the GOP primary in this open Dem-leaning district.

For the Dems, it would be Lois Frankel vs Kristin Jacobs (another Broward County Commissioner).  


I hadn't heard about it.
A contested primary here is bad for us, especially if Hasner and LaMarca run ads against each other.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Barrett seriously considering running in WI recall
According to his mouth. http://www.jsonline.com/news/s...
All but guaranteeing that some dude fake D will win the primary with 3 Ds running.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


I don't believe that the 'fake D' tactic will work
The Dems could just run a 'fake R' against Walker and we automatically have a Republican primary. The 'fake D' tactic will only work if Walker is running unopposed in the primary.  

[ Parent ]
It Doesn't Work Like That
It's a Recall - there's no Primary on Walker's side, only the D side.  

[ Parent ]
There will be no GOP Primary
This isn't a GE.  It's a recall and the guy being recalled is automatically on the ballot.  There's only a primary to see who runs against the guy being recalled.

A "fake Dem" could win with just two Democrats running in the primary.  With three it's even easier, especially if it turns into a bloody Milwaukee (Barrett) vs Madison (Falk) vs outstate (Vinehout) gong show.  

Right-Wing Populist


[ Parent ]
Recall
What happens if our guy wins the Democrat nomination? I could see the Democrats going completely apeshit.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
If that happened
which it won't, but whatever, Barrett would just run as an independent. Would suck for you really because then there will be two Republicans on the ballot vs. Barrett. Your side would be splitting the votes when it really matters.

That won't happen though because a). If it somehow happened, the WI GOP would get non-stop negative press for "interfering with democracy" which is why they won't even try b). there's no way enough Republicans would be interested in crossing lines to ratfuck anyways c). I don't know about Vinehout, but Falk and Barrett are well known to be good friends so it's expected to be a constructive primary d). Vinehout won't be raising competitive money because she's a poor candidate, so expect 1-on-1 Barrett v. Falk. e). Since he'd be running against two popular well-known Dems, money would have to be thrown toward the fake Dem, and nobody will want to risk pissing money away on that even if somehow enough Republicans could be convinced to do it and the WI GOP was interested in doing it.

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
Not really
Most see already the recalls as abusing democracy rules. it will be seen as fair game. Anyway, on your points, the GOP almost one a few of the primaries in one on one races. Yes, many will cross over if there is a minimal GOP effort. He probably can't run as an indie if he ran in the primary to start with.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
A statewide, nationally publicized recall
with famous candidates is a lot different than a dinky state senate race. Even the dumbest and most out-of-touch D voters will know which is the fake this time (and yes, those voters are the primary reason why one of the fake's almost won, not because of crossover GOP voters, think SC D senate primary in '10) And I'm pretty sure few people outside of GOP partisans view the recalls as "abusing democracy rules"

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
Does it matter?
I get the impression the well was poisoned in Wisconsin when the Democrats showed their complete contempt for the will of the electorate by fleeing town.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Not possible for Barrett to run as an Independent
The filing deadline is the same day for Independents as it is for Democrats, so if Barrett (or Vinehout or Falk) runs in the Democratic primary and loses they cannot run as an independent.  

[ Parent ]
LOL
All hell would break loose.  I mean I guess there would still be a recall election, just between Walker and some random WI GOP insider.  What else could be done?

Right-Wing Populist

[ Parent ]
Wisconsin Dems going completely apeshit . . . .
I'd pay serious money to see that.  Now, THAT'S entertainment.  

[ Parent ]
They haven't already?


Right-Wing Populist

[ Parent ]
New Kansas Map pic
In case anyone is interested in a link:

http://www.hutchnews.com/Localregional/o-neal-and-map--1

This compares what the Democrats thought KS Republicans would do, with what the GOP KS House Speaker is actually proposing as his plan.  


I'm waiting to see if it will actually pass
But Brownback deserves kudos for helping Ds predict the actual map....

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
The Actual Plan Is Much Less Radical Than What The Dems Said...
...would happen.  

[ Parent ]
The Dems
just threw that out there because they knew it was the way to go if Republicans were smart. That they "predicted" the map is a joke. I imagine it'll end up some kind of compromise closer to the Senate version. Alot of resistance in small states to any kind of major changes.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
The little strip
of Wynadotte county in KS3 replaces two rural GOP counties.  So it impacts KS3 but just not that much.  

[ Parent ]
KS-03
Wait, we weakened Yoder's seat?!

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
No
The current Yoder seat has all of Wyandotte. Some plans removed the entire county from his seat, but today's edition puts a small strip of Wyandotte back in. Either way he's going to be losing a lot of Dems from that county and replacing them with rural Republicans.

[ Parent ]
KS-03/Lawrence
Sweet. So long as McCain won the seat, I'm fairly happy.

By the way, does anyone know what kind of population growth in Lawrence is projected over the next few years? A lot of growth in Lawrence would be bad news for Yoder (but not unsurmountable).

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
Uh, No
There has been greater resistance to the State Senate plan than this plan.

The ultimate map is going to look more like this one - the Senate plan is dead in the Kansas House and with Brownback.  


[ Parent ]
What I meant
is I think there will be alot of resistance to splitting up the KC area. I know about the concessions Brownback got from the Senate WRT Manhattan. I think the end product will be closer to least change with some adjustments. I hope the House plan can make it though.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
I Don't Think It's Possible To 'Square That Circle'
I think this plan is being proposed because there's no way to, 1) keep Manhattan in KS-02, and 2) keep Wichita whole (in KS-04), without splitting Wyandotte co.

I think it's this, or the State Senate plan. I don't think a "least change" while doing 1) & 2) above is possible.  


[ Parent ]
done, but that makes #3 only 49.9% McCain
#3 All of Wyandotte, Johnson, and eastern portion of Miami.
(It sheds all of what it currently has in Douglas while adding that portion of Miami) This is only 49.9% McCain

#2 Keeps the arm to Manhatten, but sheds the three northern counties along the border with Nebraska, and the four counties in a row just south of Topeka (starting with Osage.) It adds the town of Coffreyville. It's also only 51.3% McCain

#4 Sheds Kingman, Harper, and Montgomery, picks up Marion, remainder of Greenwood, and almost all of McPherson. 58.3% McCain

#1 Grows the above mentioned arms to both reach the Missouri river and encircle #4. McCain 68.7%

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO Pattonville School District, Maryland Heights Fire District (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
Way Too Ugly
This just further confirms my point: it'll either be the House plan or the State Senate plan - I don't think a plan like you've outlined (or the other more outlandish "east-west strips" districts plan) have any chance of passing, as they are too radical.  

[ Parent ]
agreed
I basically superimposed my clean map from months ago and made minimum changes from that to keep Manhatten in #2.

My clean map's #3 (&4) though are as described and so I can't recommend keeping all of KC with all of Johnson county even if it sheds all of Douglas.

But that actual proposal to put all of Douglas and Johnson together with parts of KC is even worse.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO Pattonville School District, Maryland Heights Fire District (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
Has anyone mapped that new Republican plan in DRA?
That KS-03 looks like it has too much of Douglas County in it.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
O Neal's #3 indeed worse than Democratic hunch
I don't have the exact map created;
but the Democratic hunch map includes Republican Frankland & Miami counties in #3.

O Neal instead has the most Democratic portion of KC and looks like a plan to ensure #2 is noncompetitive but at the cost of conceeding #3.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO Pattonville School District, Maryland Heights Fire District (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
Franklin
darn autocorrect

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO Pattonville School District, Maryland Heights Fire District (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Roughly, DRA
KS-1 goes from 69-30 McCain to 62-36
KS-2 goes from 55-43 McCain to 57-41
KS-3 goes from 51-48 Obama to 50-49 McCain
KS-4 stays the same

Cracking Kansas City sure helps

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
That looks good to me
Pass it.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
This seems very good
Without ugly gerrymandering.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Cracking helped #2 yup
#3 would be better still without any of KC and instead having the Republican counties south.

#2 would of course be worse in such a map unless #1 brought in.


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO Pattonville School District, Maryland Heights Fire District (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
Santorum with 10-point lead on Gallup
http://www.gallup.com/poll/ele...
However, national numbers are a lagging indicator of actual movement in states where both candidates are campaigning and spending. We've seen this before already several times.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


I Suspect This Is Real, This Time
I think GOP voters have finally gotten it into their skulls that Romney's not the guy. Heck, even the Establishment seems to be realizing this.

Which is not to say that Romney can't still win - it's just that if he wins now, it'll be by a series of squeaker, mediocre wins, allowing him to stumble across the finish line, with almost no real "strong" support.  


[ Parent ]
Agreed
I think if Republicans want to go into their Convention "strong", Santorum is the way to go.  He will at minimum energize the base much more than Romney can, and much further than just anti-Obama.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
I'm waiting for another MI poll
There might not have been any movement there in the past week.
I do agree with your second part.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
I see it the same
as when Gingrich was up after South Carolina. Won't last too long.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Gingrich
Had much more fundamental weaknesses for a R primary and Mitt exploited it and within 3 days he came crashing down.
We are already 13 days after MN/CO/MO and where is Romney?

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Yeah
Same principle though. Santorum has no capacity to run a national campaign and compete in 50 states.  

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Romney weakness and weakening from PPP
In Washington state Santorum's favorability is 69/18, Romney's is 47/42. Similar to the divides we saw in Minnesota and Missouri

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Santorum's
won one state so far by a couple dozen votes. And hasn't competed in some of the others. And he won three non binding contests. If he can win a bunch of upcoming states I'll start to take him more seriously. I don't right now.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
You have the same misperceptions about caucuses as many
These people selected at the caucuses will go to their state convention and elect delegates to the RNC that are Santorum supporters.
It's nonbinding, but that is what will happen. It's ignoring reality to say otherwise.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
The rules are complicated
and different in each. it's not that straightforward. Still, if you don't even campaign in the third largest state in the country among others your not a national candidate in my book.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
He definitely isn't
But Mitt's weaknesses are damaging him badly now.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
I'd be surprised if Santorum gets even a majority of delegates in any of those states
The Ron Paul campaign has been making sure that its people are the delegates selected after the caucuses. I bet he crushes at the county and state conventions in these states just like he did in Nevada in 2008. Given Santorum's lack of organization, they probably don't even know what's going on

[ Parent ]
I doubt that
People are less dumb than you think.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
I think that too, every now and then
But then Pete Hoekstra releases an ad featuring a girl speaking Engrish and I lose all faith again

[ Parent ]
That's not what happened in 2008
McCain got the delegates for caucuses he didn't win, mostly because they decided on who the delegates would be after it was apparent McCain won.

Having been ground zero at the Nevada Caucus, I saw that the people who were going to the county convention were those who were willing to do it. Most people don't want to go to a county and then a state convention. Santorum can't count on anything non-binding.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
All Santorum needs
Is to win WA/MI/AZ. If he sweeps and it's a big if, the rest is a snowball. Too many states at once for Mitt to attack effectively when Santorum has a commanding lead.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Even then, this thing is going to Tampa
He's not on the ballot in Indiana or Virginia and Romney's inevitably bound to clean up in the northeast (and probably win California, too). I can't fathom any scenario where Santorum wins pre-convention.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Jeb 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
It's only going to Tampa if it's close
If one candidate has 1,050 delegates and the other only 800, it'll be settled before the convention.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
I expect only one candidate
will be at 1,050 delegates by the convention, Romney.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
NC-12 Watt running again
http://www.charlotteobserver.c...

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


That's extremely sad (Nt)


[ Parent ]
Arkansas filing opens this week
Democrats expected to file in 26 Senate seats. Republicans in 25. In the State House, Republicans are looking at around 65 seats and Democrats at around 70 seats. For Congress, the big question is who challenges Tim Griffin, if anybody. Will have full analysis once filing closes.  

CO-2
Dem registration advantage down to two points.
http://coloradostatesman.com/c...

SC1-Charleston

Liberal Independents, right?


[ Parent ]
Almost Certainly, Yes
Just to be clear on this, while I'm one of the foremost proponents around here of using partisan reg. voter stats, you can't just use them in the absence of anything else.

Something like CO-02 is a great examples of the dangers of just looking at voter reg. state - Dems may have a just 2% reg. advantage here, but the "Indies" in CO-02 are almost certainly predominantly Left-leaning, just as they are in places like Cali. and most of New England.  


[ Parent ]
District went from 64-34
to 61-37 Obama with the new map. Narrow Kerry win.  

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
It's Gotta Be About D+6
While winning such a district is theoretically possible in a Midterm in which there's a GOP wave and Dem-leaners just don't even bother to show up, such a scenario is pretty darn unlikely.

I'll go so far as to predict that the GOP doesn't take CO-02 for even 2 years out of the coming decade.  


[ Parent ]
But its trending Republican
Just kidding. I find that trending phrase so annoying.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Anyone Have Down-Ballot Stats For This One?
I admit to being skeptical that it's "trending" anything but towards the D's, but I think you'd really have to look at statewide race results in the 2000's there to know for sure...  

[ Parent ]
CO-02/IJB
I'll go so far as to predict that the GOP doesn't take CO-02 for even 2 years out of the coming decade.  

That's not really a very bold prediction. I would predict that there's a zero percent chance the GOP holds it at all over the next decade. It's definitely becoming more liberal and it has Boulder in it.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
Wonder why
The D voter reg. advantage has gone from 4 to 2 in a year. That's a big move, no?

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Purging of rolls
Probably because a bunch of college students were purged from the rolls.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Just got back from a Romney rally
in Vancouver, WA. Josh Romney was there speaking. Rep. Jaime Herrera-Butler sent a message to the event and endorsed Romney. There were probably about 150-175 people there, but the event was only annouced a few days ago. It was alot of fun and great to meet Josh Romney.

26, Republican, WA-03 (represented by wonderful Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler).

We Ask America: Michigan
http://weaskamerica.com/2012/0...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Taken yesterday and tied at 29%
The undecideds seems a little high though.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Someone look at the crosstabs
Then tell me if you don't think that it's fake. Seriously.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
The poll might be correct, but the crosstabs? Random numbers...
ALL VOTERS 10% 12% 29% 29% 20%
By GENDER
Female 8% 10% 32% 27% 23%
Male 13% 14% 27% 32% 14%
By AGE BRACKET
18-24 8% 10% 32% 27% 23%
25-34 13% 14% 27% 32% 14%
35-44 8% 10% 32% 27% 23%
45-54 13% 14% 27% 32% 14%
55-64 8% 10% 32% 27% 23%
65+ 13% 14% 27% 32% 14%

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Check it before they change the numbers!


26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
It's just a mistake
They clearly just screwed up their spreadsheet or table or whatever, so that the toplines repeat going down. They'll probably correct it soon

[ Parent ]
They just took it off


26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Romney has more endorsements
Michigan's LG.
Cynthia Lummis.
Don Nickles (there's a name I haven't heard in a while).

Santorum still has zero current senators or non-Pennsyvlania representatives endorsing him, correct?

Age 22, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Law and Order Liberal.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


3
Barletta, Thompson, and Marino have endorsed Santorum.  None of him served with him though.  Half of the GOP State Senate delegation endorsed him though.

Gerlach endorsed Romney.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
right
I was saying not a single of the over 200 House Republicans not from Pennsylvania have, nor have any of the 46 non Pennsyvlania Republican Senators.

By my count, he has:

Barletta, Marino, and Thompson

Gresham Barrett, Bob Schaffer, Tom Tancredo, and Mike DeWine.

extremely unimpressive.

Age 22, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Law and Order Liberal.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Yeah, thats telling
that only 3 people out of Pennsylvania have endorsed Santorum. That about sums up what his chances of winning to the establishment looks like.
http://thehill.com/homenews/ca...

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Cool
I don't want a candidate the "establishment" supports. The establishment has done nothing about the deficit/debt, and have completely backed off repealing ObamaCare.

I don't want our nominee anywhere near those jokers.  


[ Parent ]
I sort of agree
Most of the establishment represents Bush era fiscally liberal policies that started the massive ramp-up in government spending in the first place.

That being said Santorum was part of that establishment.  

Rand 2016


[ Parent ]
As Others Have Pointed Out...
...At least Santorum talks about entitlement spending (cuts) which is more than I've ever heard from Romney.

I'd rather lose with somebody who will run while at least establishing poltical 'markers' for 2016 than lose with a completely gutless self-serving careerist like Romney who will do absolutely nothing to advance the long-term prospects of either the Republican party or FisCon policies. (And make no mistake, Romney will lose - he's Kerry II in every way possible...)  


[ Parent ]
If you're looking for advancing fiscal conservatism
Santorum isn't your guy. He makes no apologies for spending and earmarks. He's a really bad messenger to advance a Paul Ryan message, especially since he doesn't believe in it.

Ron Paul is the only proven fiscal conservative in the bunch and I'm certainly not recommending voting for him.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
We have no true fiscal conservative
in the race except Ron Paul. He has really been the only the the entire time with the possible exception of Bachmann and look how that turned out.

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1



[ Parent ]
Except
When he was porking for TX-14.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Yeah okay
I'll give you that one lol. If only the entire GOP adopted Paul's fiscal ideology...

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1



[ Parent ]
Talking About FisCon >> Not Talking About FisCon (nt)


[ Parent ]
Only if you're sincere
Nominating Santorum will tell the country that Republicans are back to their earmarking free spending ways of 2001-2007. While he talks about government picking winners and losers (e.g. manufacturing) and that there's nothing wrong with earmarks, he's communicating just that.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
No joke
Santorum is as establishment as anyone on that list. That he has no support is a different thing entirely.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Honestly
he has no support from the establishment because they have sunk everything they have behind Romney from the beginning. They might have gone for a Pawlenty but they all wanted Romney from the start.

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1



[ Parent ]
It is what it is
nt

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Romney's endorsements
Haha, someone beat AndyRoo in posting endorsements!

Brian Calley's pick doesn't surprise me... maybe he can help Romney out a little bit in western Michigan but I don't see that really happening. As for Lummis, that could maybe be of decent help in Wyoming. As you said, Nickles has been out of the loop too long for it to really matter.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
Also, Mike Bouchard
http://www.mittromney.com/news...

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Jeb 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
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