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Political Roundup For February 22, 2012

by: SCRep

Wed Feb 22, 2012 at 09:00:00 AM EST


President

Arizona: A new We Ask America poll in Arizona shows Mitt Romney leading the GOP presidential primary with 37%, followed by Rick Santorum at 27%, Newt Gingrich at 15% and Ron Paul at 8%. A CNN poll shows a closer race, Romney 36%, Santorum 32%, Gingrich 18%, Paul 6%, Undecided 6%.

Georgia: A new Insider Advantage poll in Georgia finds Newt Gingrich with a small lead over the GOP presidential field with 26%, followed by Mitt Romney at 24%, Rick Santorum at 23% and Ron Paul at 12%. The Georgia primary is on Super Tuesday March 6.

Michigan: A new Mitchell/Rosetta Stone Poll in Michigan shows Mitt Romney leading Rick Santorum, 32% to 30%, with Newt Gingrich at 9% and Ron Paul at 7%. Another 22% of voters remain undecided. Eight days ago, Santorum had a 9% lead and twelve days before that Romney led by 15% in the same poll. A Rasmussen Reports poll shows Santorum with 38% of the vote to Romney's 34%. Well behind are Texas Rep. Ron Paul with 10% support and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 9%.

Paul: Ron Paul is out with a new hard hitting ad running in Michigan and Super Tuesday states in which he attacks Rick Santorum as being a fake fiscal conservative.

Trump: In what seems like a move to bolster Mitt Romney, Donald Trump said Tuesday he would "seriously, seriously" consider jumping into the White House race if Rick Santorum wins the Republican presidential nomination.

Washington: A new Public Policy Polling survey in Washington finds Rick Santorum leads Mitt Romney in the state's upcoming GOP caucuses, 38% to 27%. They are followed by Ron Paul at 15% and Newt Gingrich at 12%. The poll finds that the presence of Gingrich helps Romney. If he were to drop out, 59% of his supporters would go to Santorum and just 13% to Romney. The state's caucuses will be held on March 3.

Senate

Arizona: In a new PPP poll, Rep. Jeff Flake leads both of his Democratic opponents, Richard Carmona and Don Bivens, by identical 11 points margins at 46-35. Carmona has some room for improvement as 23% of Democrats are undecided, compared to only 14% of Republicans. PPP concludes that Flake remains the clear favorite to win.

Indiana: Sen. Dick Lugar defended himself from critics who say that he isn't qualified to run for office because he doesn't live in the state. Lugar pointed out that two attorneys general have affirmed his position that the Indianapolis address on his Indiana driver's license is valid, even though he sold that home in 1977. The Indiana Election Commission is set to meet this week to consider Lugar's residency situation.

Nebraska: In a poll conducted for Jon Bruning endorser Citizens United Political Victory Fund by Wenzel Strategies, Attorney General Jon Bruning was at 48 percent, Don Stenberg 19 percent and State Sen. Deb Fischer at 10 percent. Twenty percent remain undecided. An internal survey last month paid for by the Stenberg backing Senate Conservatives Fund revealed a much different result, showing Stenberg within just 6 points of Bruning.

Texas: Ted Cruz is narrowing the gap with frontrunner Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst according to a new Texas Tribune poll. Dewhurst led with 38 percent, followed by Cruz at 27 percent and former ESPN analyst Craig James and former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert each with 7 percent.

House

CA-21: Fresno City Councilman Blong Xiong is entering the race for the open 21st District. Another Democrat, John Hernandez of the Central California Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, recently announced he is running for the 21st District seat as well. Republicans like their candidate here, Assemblyman David Valadao.

IL-16: Freshman Rep. Adam Kinzinger and Rep. Don Manzullo, who has served in Congress since 1993, released dueling TV ads this week that go after one another on the issue of spending. The primary is on March 20. Kinzinger outraised Manzullo by $116,000 during the fourth quarter and also had more money in the bank at the end of the period.

NJ-5: Former New York Giants linebacker and Hall of Famer Harry Carson will not challenge Rep. Scott Garrett next year because he could not commit the time. Democrats are left without a top tier candidate to take on Garrett.

NM-1: With the filing deadline passing last week, no big name Republican came forward for the open Albuquerque based 1st District. Republicans do not view the seat as a top pickup opportunity this year. For the Democrats, former Albuquerque Mayor Marty Chavez, state Sen. Eric Griego and Bernalillo County Commissioner Michelle Lujan Grisham are running for the seat.

PA-18 The campaign of Rep. Tim Murphy released a poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies which shows him leading former Senate staffer Evan Feinberg with 74 percent to Feinberg's 12 percent. The poll's release came one day after Sen. Tom Coburn endorsed Feinberg, a former Coburn staffer, and labeled Murphy an "Arlen Specter Republican."

Governor

Wisconsin: A poll of 599 likely voters done for a pro recall group, the Cops for Justice Fund, finds three Democrats leading Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker in head to head matchups. The American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees endorsed Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk for the recall race against Walker this week. Petitions to recall Walker still have yet to be certified.

Redistricting

Minnesota: A Minnesota court released a least change congressional map for the state which kept lines largely intact. Rep. Michele Bachmann's home was moved into CD 4, but she announced she would run for reelection in her current 6th District seat. Rep. John Kline's 2nd District was made about two points more Democratic, but he remains safe. Rep. Eric Paulsen's 3rd District moved about a point and a half toward the Republicans. The 8th District of Rep. Chip Cravaack stayed the same politically, and will be a heavily contested seat next year.

New Mexico: Retired State District Judge James Hall released two preliminary proposals for comment by parties in the House redistricting case. He plans to make a final decision by Feb. 27. Hall adopted a redistricting plan in January, but the state Supreme Court overturned that Feb. 10, telling Hall to come up with a new plan that was less biased toward Republicans, kept more communities intact, and shored up Hispanic influence in a Clovis area district.

Wisconsin: A federal judge hearing the dispute over Wisconsin's legislative redistricting maps has asked the two sides to meet and determine whether the Legislature can come up with a plan that will address the two key issues in the redistricting suit, the disenfranchisement of minority voters and the 300,000 residents who will go six years between voting for a state senator. If the Legislature does try, they would have four weeks to finalize a new map. If not, the trial will resume.

SCRep :: Political Roundup For February 22, 2012
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Wisconsin
I'm really supposed to believe that Walker is trailing after not a single public poll has shown so...

25, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker write-in campaign?
It looks like this might be a legitamate way to beat the recall:
http://wisconserve.com/2012/02...

By law a write-in option has to be included on the recall primary ballot. The recall is an open primary open to any WI voter. So Republicans can vote in the primary and write-in Scott Walker's name.

If more than 1 Dem is running in the primary Walker could win the recall on a write-in with less than 505 of the vote!


[ Parent ]
Can't he actually run in the D primary?
Anyway, fake actual R on the ballot is best and with 2 Dems it's at least 50-50 to win and with 3 Rs don't even have to campaign.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
It sounds underhanded
But if Democrats don't have a candidate who can beat Walker when Walker's name isn't on the ballot, then that's really the election right there.

The reason they have open primaries in Wisconsin is that they don't have party registration. There are no Republicans and Democrats in Wisconsin. You are whatever you say you are the day you vote. There certainly is nothing preventing people who identify themselves as Democrats to vote in a primary for a Presidential candidate they think can't win. I don't think there's party registration in Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Indiana, or Wisconsin.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Michelle Lujan Grisham
Is she part of the Lujan political family?

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

Another Christie gem
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...
It's not only what he says, it's how he says it.

25, Male, R, NY-10

I'm probably alone
But I find Christie to be really rude.  He does some things I could support, but in virtually everything he handles it wrong and just comes across as nasty to people.  Of course to his credit it seems to be working.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
not in NJ
he is just what the doctor ordered. Here in the Democratic stronghold of Hudson County, you'd be surprised how many people like him.

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!


[ Parent ]
probably alone here
People always say they are tired of pandering politicians who parse everything they say (lie) and change their accents when they speak in front of different crowds.  Naturally when someone like that comes around and is not on the side of the aisle that the person is, they are going to not like them.  He's also being rudely attacked by many Democrats.  The comments on sites like nj.com attack his weight in nearly every story.  The people calling him a rude bully would be celebrating his "no nonsense" approach if he were a Liberal.  

Which is ruder?  Telling someone to just write a check and shut up, or calling the opposition leaders "Demons"?  One is just non sugar-coated political speech, the other is visceral hatred.  I don't see hate from Christie;  I most often see vein-popping hate from Democrats.      


[ Parent ]
You are 1000% correct
The vitriol thrown at Christie is worse than anything I have ever seen.  We have friends here in NJ that are police and teachers and those people in particular can't even think straight when the Governor's name comes up.  And yes, our one friend shaves his head and yes tenure reform comes up and his veins are popping.

The state was such a freaking basket case before he was elected.  Every politician was too afraid to say ANYTHING to anger the public employee unions.  In the meantime, the taxpayers were left with the bill and no one in Trenton could give a damn.

So, Christie might be blunt.  Hey he might even be a little rude but when you need to produce meaningful change in a state like NJ....you are going to anger people on the gravy train.  It's a good example of leadership and Obama is probably taking notes.

36, Republican, NJ-11  


[ Parent ]
Roemer
Out of the Republican primary and into Americans Elect and Reform.

I know it wouldn't effect much, but who would a ticket of Roemer/Arthur Davis hurt more?  

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


Obama, for sure
Roemer has lovingly embraced the Occupy movement and Davis is a black, center-left Democrat. I suspect, for historical comparison, such a ticket would be most akin to Eugene McCarthy's '76 run. Which led to an entire one percent.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Davis
is definitely NOT center-left.

His voting record was.  But his rhetoric is center-right, and voters look at rhetoric more than voting record.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
MN redistricting came out
about what I expected.  Status quo in Congress. The legislative maps sets up alot of tight competitive matches in rural areas where control of the house and senate will be determined.  Its look like the urban/suburban areas are mostly status quo.  

Minnesota will be tightly contested in 2012 as far as legislative control is concerned.


Blong Xiong
He was #1 on the Democratic wish list, because Dean Florez was never going to run. I wouldn't underestimate him. He's Hmong and there's a sizable Hmong population in Fresno. Heck, here's his life story.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

He may want to update his website
http://blong2010.org/

Of course, most of that sizable Hmong population is in his district, which only has roughly 70,000 people. The congressional district has 10 times that many people and only 4% of them are Asian.

I wouldn't consider him top tier, but I wouldn't underestimate him. This is the Central Valley and the Democrats don't have a long bench there. So he's a good get and I'm betting that his campaign account will have a lot of checks with Hmong names on them by the end of the day.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


I'm Not Particularly Worred About This One (nt)


[ Parent ]
CA-21
Neither do I.  

[ Parent ]
I know about the Hmong, but
I thought that Fresno was removed from the district, except for maybe a tiny sliver. Xiong might be a good candidate, but I doubt that there would be a 'Hmong factor.'

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Hmong
I don't think they're a particularly wealthy group. They don't have the population base or money as a whole to just throw money at Xiong like Indians seem to do with people like Ravi Sangisetty, Manan Trivedi, Raj Goyle, the guy in Stark's seat, and Ami Bera, or like Greeks and Jews both do with candidates of their own group.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07

[ Parent ]
Good Catch
On the district. The Hmong community isn't in the district. They're in CA-22. In fact, his city council district is entirely outside the congressional district.

The Hmong aren't a wealthy group, but don't underestimate their ability to save and rally around their candidate. I don't expect him to rival Bera's numbers. The checks might not be huge, but there will be a lot of them.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Did anybody see the NBC Marist Poll which
had Obama beating Santorum by 26 points (!), and Romney by 18 (!) in Michigan?

And In Wisconsin, Obama beats Romney by 15, and Santorum by 11 according to Marquette University.

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/w...

https://law.marquette.edu/poll...


I posted it on the previous thread
The MI margin against Santorum is definitely inflated because it's not even realistic. Same with the 21 Stabenow lead that isn't realistic.
Except for Levin, when was the last time ANY D won by such a margin?

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Obama and Stabenow haven't been attacked
Things will tighten up here once the primary ends, but it will be an uphill battle.

Obama's going the claim that he's saved the car industry. I'd counter that he shed most of GM's brands and put Chrysler under foreign control. We haven't come close to breaking even on jobs.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
Obama hasn't been attacked?
What?  Really?

Stabenow I agree she hasn't been hit much outside of that horrible ad.  

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
Obama
Actually, there has been an ad attacking Obama about Solyndra running for a while in MI.  I've seen it quite a few times.

As far as jobs go...of course we don't have has many jobs as before the bankruptcy.  The issue is how many jobs we have now versus how many jobs we would have without government intervention.  The government bailout for the auto industry will be a positive for Obama.
 


[ Parent ]
Energy and trade are his weakness
I've seen the solundra ad, but that's nothing compared to the attacks right now largely from Romney. At least right now, there's a real negative feeling right now among everybody which favors the incumbent - "devil you know". Reminding me of 1996.

"The issue is how many jobs we have now versus how many jobs we would have without government intervention."

That's the question, but nobody's even mentioned the other side. The industry still went to Bankruptcy. Luckily, it didn't go Chapter 7 or didn't put most of the suppliers to Chapter 7. I don't particularly like Chrysler being forced to be bought out by FIAT which isn't even American. GM lost Pontiac and Saturn. I do think Romney and to a lesser extent Santorum have shot themselves in the foot here with that.

On energy, that's the achilles' heel. Gas prices, "green jobs" that don't exist, and a "non-recovery" recovery. Obama also pushed for another one of these trade agreements where I happen to break with both parties. No one's going to call him out on that because the national sovereignty and paleoconservative wing of the GOP has weakened heavily the last 15 years. However, everyone knows how Michigan feels about NAFTA. Santorum voted against it.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
Bankruptcy/trade
The reason it wasn't a chapter 7 bankruptcy was because there was a willing investor (the government).  While it sucks the jobs were cut and Chrysler was sold to Fiat, it's better than the loss of all the jobs.

I do disagree with Obama on the free trade agreements he signed.  I'm not sure if trade will be a big issue though. I believe Romney is a free trade supporter and Santorum might anger as many people by making free trade an issue as he would gain.      


[ Parent ]
Neither would ever have been in Chapter 7
They'd have filed for Chapter 11, broken all of their union contracts, leaned on the UAW with a major concessions-or-else strategy, and come out far stronger for it. This idea that all the people working for the companies would have lost their jobs is ridiculous. They'd have taken a pay cut, some would have been laid off, and some cash-poor suppliers who couldn't weather the bankruptcy would've gone under. But at the end of the day, the system would've worked, and the companies would have ended up stronger.

[ Parent ]
Yes, they would have
In order to survive bankruptcy, they needed investors.  There were no private investors. BTW, the unions did give concessions, such as the two-tier pay scale.

[ Parent ]
I'm aware of the concessions that actually happened
Which are cute, but only time will tell if they'll be sustainable. Once Japan actually comes back and starts selling cars again (since, y'know, they had a tsunami that destroyed production) and wipes out GM and Chrysler's illusory gains, we'll see what's viable long-term.

GM would have been fine in a private bankruptcy. They would have had no trouble getting debtor in possession financing with their $80 billion in hard assets, either from one of their existing creditors, or perhaps a consortium of investment banks and other lenders. As somebody who has worked very closely with bankruptcy proceedings, I know that a company like GM or Chrysler would always have investors ready to pony up and support a restructuring bankruptcy that would have resulted in a leaner and more lucrative company. To say "there were no private investors" is simply wrong. There were no investors willing to sink more cash into the company to continue its then-failing operations in 2009, but there certainly would have been people lining up to provide bankruptcy DIP financing. I mean, just look at how quickly a screwed-up company like Kodak got a bucket of money.

I'll not go any further as I've gone off topic.


[ Parent ]
It's not wrong
It's a fact that there weren't private investors.  If there were private investors willing to be the debtor in possession for GM and Chrysler, don't you think they would've chosen that route to avoid the bad PR of taking government funding?  

Even Romney's former company Bain refused to invest in GM's European operations.


Mitt Romney says that he opposed the government bailout of Detroit because the private market would have provided loans so GM and Chrysler could go through managed bankruptcy, but it turns out the firm Romney once led, Bain Capital, turned down the chance to do so. The government's auto task force asked Bain Capitol if it would like to invest in GM's European operations, The New York Times'  Jeremy W. Peters reports, but Bain said no thanks.

http://www.theatlanticwire.com...

There simply weren't investors willing to take a chance on the auto companies back in 2009.  I'll leave it at that.    


[ Parent ]
And yet he's trailing in Iowa and Virginia?
Is this even plausible?

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
State Presidential polls are meaningless right now
What you end up doing is comparing Iowa and Virginia polls taken by one pollster two weeks ago to Michigan and Wisconsin polls taken this week by another. If you only have one or two polls in a state you could end up with wide variation.

We've seen dramatic swings in Republican primary polls due to debates and elections. There's no reason to think that the same won't hold true in a general election poll. If Santorum is gaining supporters among Republicans, he's likely gaining supporters, to a lesser extent, among independents and socially conservative Democrats. Santorum is most popular with blue collar working class Whites. So it wouldn't be a surprise if he went from having 6% Democratic support to 11% after a debate.

I'd only marginally pay attention to general election polls. There's many more of them and they give an overall feel that can be translated elsewhere. If Obama is beating Santorum by 8 points, there's no way Santorum can win enough electoral votes to win the election.

I'll start looking at polls once there's a Republican nominee and Republicans stop running ads criticizing other Republicans.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Cuomo on Independent Redistricting: 'I Just Lost'
http://www.politicker.com/2012...
Article doesn't really enlighten us on what lies ahead.

25, Male, R, NY-10

It's all kabuki
and in the end everyone will be winners except for the GOP Assemblymembers and the Dems in the Senate but they are out of power so they dont count in NY politics.

[ Parent ]
Grimm defends himself
With one week to go in North Carolina filing,
all Republicans need to do is file against Roy Cooper and Janet Corwell. They are doing fine in all other offices. Also of note, McIntyre still has not filed.

I think he runs for governor
He has a much better shot at winning that (if he gets through a primary) than in his new seat.

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1



[ Parent ]
He declared already
That he's running again.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Etheridge more or less
commands the same political base as McIntyre.  In the last ten years they shared a few counties and their politics overlapped at least until Bobby E. turned a bit liberal.  

[ Parent ]
Polls
Michigan - The Santorum surge has dissipated. This'll likely be tight. While the media will certainly make a big deal who "wins," There are only 2 at large delegates, however. So the real question is how they break down by district.

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

Arizona - PPP appears to be an outlier. Still, there's a debate tonight and this is winner-take-all. Romney won't ease up.

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

Wisconsin Senate - The sample appears to be overly Democratic. Thompson is likely 3 points more ahead.

https://law.marquette.edu/poll...

Michigan Senate - Stabenow coasting
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

Generic ballot - No longer favors Democrats
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

Wisconsin Republican primary - Santorum doing well, but there are a lot of primaries between now and then
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


On AZ
PPP wasn't the only one that had Mitt only up 3-4. However Mitt is definitely up there and on the margin the polls are all over the place.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
And
The Q numbers seem reasonable.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
The last time
Rs led on the generic ballot on Q was almost a year ago.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
CA-21 Bad news?
Cruz Bustamante eyes 21st District congressional bid http://fresnobeehive.com/news/...

25, Male, R, NY-10

That sounds like good news
Isn't Bustamante considered a very weak candidate?

[ Parent ]
Good News
See my other post on the subject, in the other thread.  

[ Parent ]
Posted in the evening roundup by mistake
I see it as more bad than good. Has the name recognition and potential to be a good candidate even though I think he is somewhat washed up.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
He's a Bad G.E. Candidate
He's already shown that.

The only way I think Valadao loses to Bustamante is if he gets crushed in the money race.  


[ Parent ]
Last time seen losing to Poizner
By the way, how was Poizner elected so easily in '06?

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Beats Me
Basically, I think it comes down to massive money advantage combined with a low-profile office.

Don't worry: that'll never happen again in CA!  


[ Parent ]
Right now
There's a Hmong Fresno city councilman in, even though very little of Fresno is in the district and the Hmong community is not. Bustamante was certainly a major failure running statewide against Steve Poizner, but he starts with very high name recognition and he likely has a long donor list. He is Hispanic in a district where half the CVAP is Latino. Democrats enjoy an 11 point registration advantage. He can be the most inept campaigner out there and still win.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
IL-11
Biggert has a primary after all:

http://beaconnews.suntimes.com...

Foster's opponents come from his left:

http://beaconnews.suntimes.com...

IL-11/M/44/Libertarianish Independent


NY-15
No commentary necessary



25, Male, R, NY-10


Santorum romping in OK, Romney third
http://www.rasmussenreports.co...
Yes, there are still a few states before OK.
OK is of states that I can't see Mitt winning.

25, Male, R, NY-10

Romney only garnered 25 percent in '08
If he doesn't bother to stump there, which he very well may not, I can totally fathom a showing around 18 percent.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Proportional
I think Oklahoma is straight proportional with a 15% floor. The difference between 18% and 25% might only be 1 delegate. Romney won't win a congressional district, so he'll just get his share of at large delegates. He just needs to stay above 15%.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Nope
Oklahoma awards 3 delegates to the winner of each congressional district (for a total of 15) and awards 25 at-large delegates proportionally with a 15% threshold unless the winner gets over 50%, in which case it's winner-take-all.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Thought
you needed 50% of vote in a Congressional district to get all three, or at least be the only candidate over 15%. Otherwise, if two candidates are between 15% and 50%, 1st place gets 2, 2nd place gets 1.  

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
You're right
My mistake on the CDs. Should've kept reading!

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Outler alert: PPP has WA-GOV as a tie
http://www.publicpolicypolling...
We had 2 polls last week that had McKenna up 9-10.

25, Male, R, NY-10

However
The crosstabs don't look screwed up.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Democrats coming home
As expected.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
If we
Didn't have 2 polls in about the same time that had McKenna up big I would have believed it.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
AP/Gfk poll
Has Obama up big http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/s...
They always do have a D leaning house effect, including in 2010.

25, Male, R, NY-10

Good Mourdock ad against Lugar
Brownback being aggressive with state Senate map
Not too good
When Ds are left with low single-digits in the state senate. We'll never get rid of some of the so-called moderates, RINOs.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Those districts
SD 3 and SD 5 almost look like they were drawn to elect Democrats with part of Lawrence included in one Leavenworth County district, and part of Kansas City included in the other. I looked up the Leavenworth County election results, and in 2008 the Republican candidates in both SD 3 and SD 5 won the portions of Leavenworth County included in their districts, but lost the other parts of the districts.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
Leavenworth Co. Should Be Its On SD
That's a joke that they tried to not do that.

The more I see out of the "moderate Republicans" in the KS State Senate, the less I like them.

Good for Brownback.  


[ Parent ]
Georgia Democrats want to ban vasectomies
http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2012...

Favorite quote:

it's still not my place as a woman to tell a man what to do with his body.

She clearly isn't aware that most vasectomies are a woman telling a man what to do with his body. So really this law wouldn't change a thing.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


VA-SEN is a tie
http://m.rasmussenreports.com/...
In the last 3 polls, Kaine hasn't lead in a single one.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

MA - Sen: Brown leads by 9
According to a new Suffolk University/7NEWS (WHDH-Boston) survey, the freshman senator garners 49% of the vote -- nine points ahead of his main Democratic rival.

http://online.wsj.com/article/...

CA-16: Former Fresno Mayor Jim Patterson won't run. Does the GOP have anyone else that may make it competitive versus Costa?  


You really
Missed the MA poll a week ago? You must have been on a good vacation!  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Haha, I'm sorry
A friend tweeted the link and I'm indeed a bit out of the loop, so I assumed it was recent.  

[ Parent ]
I was gonna say
I got excited that there was another poll showing Brown with a healthy lead, but then I realized it was the same poll.

This is gonna be one heck of a race.


[ Parent ]
IL-2
http://weaskamerica.com/2012/0...

We ask America loves their Illinois House races. Halvorson would need to win, probably decisively, Hispanics and Asians and chip into Jackson's Black support to triumph. If Blacks are 60% of the Democratic primary electorate in IL-2, Jackson would win with 65% Black support and 30% support with other groups.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Sorry
I didn't refresh before posting.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
This WAA poll is reasonable
Though I still have my other doubts.
Jackson crushing Halvorson. http://weaskamerica.com/2012/0...

25, Male, R, NY-10

Wenzel has a bad track record
They had decent poll numbers for John Dennis in CA-08 against Pelosi in 2010. I wouldn't put much stock in it.

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04

IL-16: New Kinzinger Ad
Supposedly, Kinzinger has hit the airwaves far more than Manzullo has. Can anyone find the Ricketts ad against Manzullo?



From IL-09, Living in PA-07


When you post YouTube
Can you just link the ad, takes up too much room.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
You bet.
I will next time.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07

[ Parent ]
This ad
Is good. Much better than his first one.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Agree
"I'm part of a new brand of Congressmen." Excellent line, especially considering the circumstances.

[ Parent ]
Ad
Good message for the primary, but it looked pretty low budget.

I wonder if Manzullo will hit Kinzinger for that study the other week that had Kinzinger as one of the more moderate Republicans.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
Corporate Tax Rates
http://www.politico.com/news/s...

I think the base will be unhappy, saying that Obama once again sells out to big business. Some on the left are advocating for higher corporate taxes, not lower.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


IL-10: Democratic Debate Tonight
They're accepting questions on Twitter. Does anyone want to try to help bait them into out progressive-ing each other?

From IL-09, Living in PA-07

Question
"Do you support a 75% tax rate on any money earned over 250k?"

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Good idea
Here was my list so far:

Q: What rate should we have a federal corporate tax at?
Q: How will you be more progressive in Congress than the other challengers?
Q: How will you prevent future dangerous oil pipelines like the Keystone XL pipeline?
Q: Why would anyone want President Obama to focus on gas prices? Shouldn't he be focusing on encouraging hybrid cars instead?

From IL-09, Living in PA-07


[ Parent ]
Q: Do you agree with Obama's policy towards Israel?
Why not try and pull a NY-09 here and get someone on record in the Dem primary as supporting Obama's policy on Israel. IL-10 has a decent Jewish population. Can someone ask a good question on this for me on Twitter (I can't access it at work).

[ Parent ]
Have you ever tried
using https:// rather that http:// for twitter?
crosses out many filters FYI.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
It doesnt work
Which is why I'm counting on you Moshe to put in a couple of good questions on Israel to zing them!

[ Parent ]
Coburn Most Conservative Gillabrand Most Liberal
National Journal Rankings- Full set out tomorrow
http://hotlineoncall.nationalj...

SC1-Charleston

Ron Johnson
Number 2!
Just shows that if you don't spew non-sense you can win a senate seat in a D+3 state as a solid conservative running against the most liberal D.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Surprised by Johnson at #2
also Gillibrand sure has come a long way from a Blue Dog in the House to most liberal, she didn't have to become #1 necessarily when she went statewide. Been looking for the ACU ratings, which should be out this month. Better than NJ IMO, National Journal to me is too watered down because they include so many non germane votes to get their score.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
PPP's bunk AZ Prez numbers
What is bunk?
Internals look normal.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Because
1) Nobody believes that Obama can win AZ.
2) We just had a poll today that Obama was trailing as show all the other polls.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Well
I believe Obama can win AZ, though I don't think it's very likely. More importantly, it's not worth any special effort. If Obama's winning Arizona then he's already well above 300 electoral votes as it is.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Well
The difference between the polls wasn't that large.  If there was something wrong with the internals I would agree with you, but they look fine to me.

I don't think Obama will win AZ barring some kind of landslide, but I also don't think hes going to do that much worse than 2008.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
It's possible he can
I'll be surprised, but I never thought Obama would win Indiana, or Bush would win in West Virginia (2000).  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

[ Parent ]
Obama ties Romney in AZ
this is the same poll that had Carmona down so much.

Obama is tied with Mitt Romney in the state at 47%. He leads Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich each by 4 points, 46-42 and 48-44 respectively. The only Republican he actually runs behind is Rick Santorum, although only by a single point at 47-46. .

Obama's approval is up a net 7 points since December, his approval rating with Democrats has increased from 74% to 87%. Obama's also flipped his numbers with independents from negative territory (35/57) to positive (51/46). Romney has a -21 favorability spread at 35/56.

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


Arizona
McCain got 40% of Hispanics in AZ. Bush got 43%.  After SB 1070 and without McCain's home state advantage there's no reason why Arizona wouldn't be competitive.

Given that SB 1070 has already been struck down by a Clinton and Reagan judge (with a Bush judge concurring in part), it's hard to see it surviving this Spring, although I guess it's possible. If it does get struck down, it'd be too bad because we just alienated a bunch of Hispanics and made Arizona competitive in order to give Brewer and the now recalled Russel Pearce another term.  

Libertarian-R New MA-5.  


[ Parent ]
Um
SB 1070 is hugely popular in every single AZ poll.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
SB 1070
I can't find much polling done recently but the point isn't whether its popular among the majority but rather what SB 1070's effects will be among the previously competitive Hispanic population of Arizona.

The first poll that turned up (http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/2010/06/08/20100608arizona-immigration-law-backlash.html) shows that despite SB 1070 regularly polling majority support among Arizonans, more than 80% of Hispanic voters didn't support it.

The math looks something like this. McCain won 53.4 - 44.9. Swing 3 points for the home state advantage and you get 50.4 - 47.9. If SB1070 swings even 10% of Hispanics (who comprise 16% of the electorate) towards the Democrats, then Obama wins the state - like he is in this poll, except against immigrant friendly Santorum.  

Libertarian-R New MA-5.  


[ Parent ]
"immigrant friendly"
You mean illegal aliens?

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Sort of
I just know that at least in debates he plays lip service to the beacon on a hill theme, whereas Romney went out of his way to outflank Gingrich on the issue.

Without getting into the policy of the issue, I just think the end results may unfortunately mirror that of Prop 187 in California - another widely popular anti-illegal immigration measure that boosted a sagging incumbent back into re-election and which was also ultimately ruled unconstitutional.  

Libertarian-R New MA-5.  


[ Parent ]
PPP
57/35 support, only 39/54 among Hispanics.
http://www.publicpolicypolling...

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Disagree
Rasmussen has Obama at 41/56 in Arizona, at the same time he was breaking even nationally.
Obama's lawsuit has hurt Democrats in Arizona, in spite of the fact that Goddard, Mitchell, Giffords and Kirkpatrick all vocally opposed the lawsuit.

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!


[ Parent ]
First time I saw this
Can anyone elaborate? From Gpack3 on DKE:
WI Recall: Ramifications of the Spring Primary

Sen. Coggs and Sen. Carpenter both advanced to the general in the Milwaukee City Treasurer's race. The winner will be forced to resign from the Senate in order to take office, and it's unlikely that there will be an election to replace them until the Nov. election. This means then, that Democrats now need to pick up two seats in the recalls to win control of the State Senate.


25, Male, R, NY-10


Shouldn't you ask Gpack3 yourself?
PMs are available on DKE if you don't want to do so publicly.

Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"

[ Parent ]
I don't have an account there


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Accounts on DKE are free
And numerous Rs in good standing here at RRH have accounts there.

I do understand if you don't want to post public messages there. But the PM function is useful for questions like what you have.

Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"


[ Parent ]
Fix's Minnesota analysis
Too positive for Democrats?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

SC1-Charleston

Blake is a Democrat
And from Minnesota. That's all you need to know. I've never read a balanced article from him. Cilliza is much better even though he's also a Democrat.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Complete Minnesota Numbers
Including 2008 Senate. Fix article is wrong on MN-7, moved .3 toward McCain I believe.
https://docs.google.com/spread...

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Coleman-Franken
Coleman won 1, 2, 3, and 7 by 4, 8, 11, and 11. It's a 50-50 election. I recognize isn't a 50-50 state. It's probably around D+3 on a congressional level. That'd make MN-1 D+0.5, MN-2 R+2, MN-3 R+3, and MN-7 R+3.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
The analysis from the Fix
was a waste of internet space.


[ Parent ]
Well
That basically describes The Fix as a whole. I dropped it from my internet 'rounds' a long time ago. At best, The Fix is shallow CW; at worse, The Fix is sloppy CW. Either way, it's not worth the time it takes to click on the link.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
I used to love The Fix
The "Line" on fridays was always something to look forward to back in 2006.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
He reads RRH
I have never met him in person, but he seemed like a nice guy via email.

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04

[ Parent ]
Sounds about right to me
The commentary seems rather reserved, if anything, which is typical of The Fix. In my years of following The Fix it seems to very rarely, if ever, go out on a limb, and near always reflects the blandest conventional wisdom.

To be sure, it's far more positive for Democrats than what I've seen on RRH, but that's just normal.

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
At least
He didn't write that Bachmann ia vulnerable.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
MN-08
I'm calling BS.

The Iron Range 8th district, which went just 46 percent for McCain in 2008, would now have gone less than 45 percent for him.

Yeah, with 2,000 new residents, a 1+% McCain difference doesn't make sense.  

From IL-09, Living in PA-07


[ Parent ]
You're right
The Iron Range 8th district changed less than 0.1%. It's still 44.5% McCain, almost 44.6%.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Sloppy article
Has gotten MN-7 and MN-8 numbers wrong at the minimum.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Yes, very
Especialy since the correct 2008 figures are even available on Wikipedia.. I should've given it a more critical reading before my above comments. So, my bad!

There's nothing much wrong with the overall analysis however, in my estimation, which is what I was replying to.

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
To be exact
It's a bit closer to rounding up to 44.6% McCain, so it actually improved for the GOP. Hey, Minge lost by 155 votes so it could matter!

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Too complicated
Minnesota in brief: 2 is slightly more D. 3 is slightly more R. The other 6 are what they were.

[ Parent ]
WI-Gov
Word is that LaFollette will be announcing for Gov. tomorrow, say what you will you have to admit he's a step up from Falk.

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


lol
This is getting comical.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Now
With 4 Ds running, we can run 2 fake Ds and it will be a race between them 2 who will be able to bow out after winning the primary.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Or voters could just write in Scott Walker's name and he can win the recall that way!


[ Parent ]
My oh my
That would be hilarious.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07

[ Parent ]
PA Legislative lines
http://www.abc27.com/story/169...

When the Democrats punted on so many seats I knew the Republicans had no incentive to move the primary.  Now they could write some candidates in, but they never win the general.  Some of the challengers ended up being weaker under the old lines anyway.  Pileggi was going against a former state rep under the new lines.  Now he is facing a Democrat who could not win in Chester City.


28, Republican, PA-6


NC-9
Pittenger officially in, making him the tenth(!) R here. http://www.wsoctv.com/news/new...  

R - MD-7

Is there
Any potential 23% Quayle here?

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Run-off
If no one receives 40%

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
I've really come around to runoffs
I used to think they were just a quirky, nostalgic, Southern thing, but after a few years of close election-watching I think they are the way to go now, at least in primaries. The nominee should have the support of the majority of the party voters. I know Quayle and Bob Gibbs (who has actually been a surprisingly good Member) both won with less than a quarter of the vote.

[ Parent ]
Agree
I'm fully behind runoffs.

They were started for the wrong reasons, but they make sense now.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Agree
Primary runoffs seem to weed out some of the ideological oddities that come along and seem to encourage good behavior in the primary as you might need thes support of the other candidates eliminated at the runoff.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
TX-23 - the lost vote theory
https://docs.google.com/file/d...

MALC is upset that a district with 850,000 people provides slightly more votes for Democrats than a district with 700,000 people in it.

Average Midterm: -13,917
Average Presidential: -26,974

Facepalm.

27, R, PA-07.


Are these people serious?
I mean, this is something that they should be able to check in like 20 minutes if someone on their side downloaded DRA and the proposed maps.

But beyond that, this should have been obvious to anyone collecting the data that while there were less votes for the Democratic Hispanic candidate, that there were also less votes for the Anglo Republican.  I'm pretty sure most places report election data for all candidates running for the same office at any one time.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18

Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
Partisanship
Their argument is that unless the candidate of their choice, not the candidate of the voters' choice, gets the same number of votes it's retrogressive. It's not about guaranteeing Hispanics a certain number of seats. It's about guaranteeing Democrats a certain number of seats.

Using that logic, any time a Democratic incumbent loses an election it should overturned because Democrats in the district aren't getting the candidate of their choice.

Why aren't they laughed out of court?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
RRR the "Congressman magnet"
One of the girls I was a Page with called me the Senator and Congressman magnet because wherever I went, I'd run into some cool Senator or Congressman and strike up a conversation with them about something interesting.

Well, I just ran into Mrs. Dold (Bob's mom) at Panera Bread... she's not quite a Congressperson but it's close enough. She seemed to be in high spirits about the upcoming campaign and said that Bob is absolutely psyched to try to win IL-10 again. She is of the same opinion that I am- that the Dold campaign has hit the ground running way before the Democrats have even mentioned the word Bob Dold. This doesn't mean all that much but it at least seems the Dold family is excited about the race.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07


What time is the debate?


25, Male, R, NY-10

8 EDT


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Pet Peeve
 No state is using Daylight time right now. The debate will be at 8 EST. I'm being nitpicky but this is one of my pet peeves. You don't have to include all of the abbreviation. Yet people do it and get it wrong.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
agreed; only places on Daylight time now are in the Southern Hemisphere


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
I wonder about this line of coverage
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/...

On one hand, aren't directors and corporate executives suppose to try and minimize their tax bill? Isn't that a form of returning value to the shareholders?

On the other, it does seem like some of these shelters were egregious and of flimsy rationale (at least according to those who were investigating...)

Love Bloomberg news though.

An anti-public union, market-loving moderate.


New Map for Wisconsin
I would like to get feed back on a new map for Wisconsin with the following demographic info (based on Dave's redistricting tool):

CD Pop Ave Rep Ave Dem Oba McC
1 710,873 56.5% 43.5% 54.1% 44.5%
2 710,893 35.4% 64.6% 69.8% 28.8%
3 710,806 54.7% 45.3% 55.5% 42.8%
4 710,959 30.0% 70.0% 74.1% 24.7%
5 710,795 66.7% 33.3% 41.0% 57.8%
6 710,896 57.8% 42.2% 52.7% 45.6%
7 710,892 56.9% 43.1% 53.5% 44.9%
8 710,872 59.5% 40.5% 51.7% 46.8%

It keeps 61 of the 72 counties intact. The other 11 counties are only broken in two pieces. The districts are very compact, as much as population would allow. It maps no incumbent out of their present district.

It makes the 2nd ad the 4th more of a Democratic sink and brings the 3rd into play.

I would post a pic, but I'm a...newbie, and I can't seem to get it to post.

WIAxiom


None Yet


Greetings from a neighbor to the south!
It's nice to have a Republican member from Illinois's hat on here. :p

Here's what you do for a pic. Make a photobucket account and get the embed code and post it here.



From IL-09, Living in PA-07


[ Parent ]
By the way...
Unless you want to kill Paul Ryan, a 54% Obama seat is not alright for him.  

From IL-09, Living in PA-07

[ Parent ]
In a blue state no R district should be more than 54% McCain
Sensenbrenner needs some political income redistribution to his teammates. Think like the NFL sharing $ with the Packers  

[ Parent ]
CTIronman
Hmm... PA-12 (which we want to go R) should be.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07

[ Parent ]
Dem incumbent exception
In that case, the right% is whatever gets the guy beat  

[ Parent ]
Part of Racine
I was playing more with it and I agree. If Sensenbrenner were to take part of the Democratic Racine lakefront. Paul Ryan would be able to take some more of Waukesha (Republican) and have a secure seat. But My first goal was to try and create a map that maintained county lines as much as possible.

None Yet

[ Parent ]
Michigan Democratic Party encourages crossover voting in GOP presidential primary
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

Since you don't register with a political party in Michigan, who's to say who is a Republican and who is a Democrat?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Alan Simpson is vile
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

No wonder Obama chose him for the deficit commission.  

25, Male, R, NY-10


Does he even like Romney?
He should probably just switch parties at this point.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
He endorsed him
Like, today.

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Whoops
Well there you go then.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
He's 80
Think he's settled as a Republican.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Yeah
Still, I'd trade you Zell Miller for him.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Alan Simpson's Lifetime ACU rating= 78
ref http://www.conservative.org/ra...

In contrast, Ben Nelson's lifetime rating is 47. (Dan Boren's is 49.)

Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"


[ Parent ]
Nope
Simpson has always been a bit of a social libertarian.  

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Yep
He was notably pro-choice-considered a "pro-choice conservative" back in his days in the Senate, although with a lifetime ACU rating of 78, he wouldn't even be considered a conservative these days.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
Sabtorum up 3 in MI
EPIC-MRA poll.
http://www.woodtv.com/dpp/news...

25, Male, R, NY-10

No debate thread?


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

Debate
Pretty ZZZZZ so far.  Newt just zinged Mitt good on the earmark debate.  Newt's looked the best probably.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
I'm watching it.
I just usually like the thread as a forum for discussion of the debate.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Agreed
Me too.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Yeah, I think it's pretty stand-pat.
Romney is getting good at this though.

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
Nope
There's a first time for everything.

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04

[ Parent ]
I lied
http://www.redracinghorses.com...

Still not livetweeting though.

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04


[ Parent ]
In the first part before the commercials
Santorum is doing pretty good, Gingrich isn't bad but nobody is attacking him. Paul is Paul and Romney isn't bad, but not particularly good.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

So Far
I'd say...

1. Newt
2. Santorum
3. Romney
4. Paul

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
It seems to me...
1. Santorum
2. Romney
3. Newt
4. Paul

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
AR-04
Forwarding this from our favorite Democrat, Grady. :)

Marcus Richmond, Republican No. 3 in the AR-04 race has dropped out and endorsed Cotton. Was taking votes from Cotton as of a few months ago.


From IL-09, Living in PA-07

Connie Mack
I don't think anyone has posted about this recent article referencing Mack's shady past. http://www.miamiherald.com/201... He seems to have gotten where he is financially and politically due to his father and his current wife. All of these incidents are from years ago but they paint a picture of a man who was spoiled, had character problems, and didn't succeed on his own merits. What thoughts do people have about this? Will it hurt him in the primary and/or general election? (I kind of doubt it will in the primary because Mack has so much money at his disposal and he has the same name as his father who represented Florida in the United States Senate.) Is George LeMieux able to take advantage of this ( in spite of his Charlie Crist associations) or is Mack's frontrunner status too invevitable at this point?  

From what I read not much
Seems like he had some troubles in the past like most everyone has nowdays. Kinda glanced over it, because it seemed like an opponent trying for something.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
I'm not sure how much it hurts but
I know two things.

1) It can't help.

2) I'd expect senior citizens to be the least approving of stories like this, which hurts most in Florida.

However, Mack has such a big lead, and LeMieux is so "meh," that I really don't think it'll matter.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
I've Never Liked The Guy
He wasn't my choice here. It wouldn't surprise me if we lose because of him. We'll see, I guess...  

[ Parent ]
it won't be because of him
Nelson's just too popular to lose.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
MN: Does this mean that 5 districts have R+ PVI's?


Had Emmers won
An R gerrymander could have had 6 districts with R+ PVI's;(4 McCain carried) 1 Minneapolis seat, and 1 seat running from St. Paul to Duluth    

[ Parent ]
Emmer
I really doubt we would have seen a Saint Paul to Duluth seat. We would have seen two MSP packs and then a pack up north.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07

[ Parent ]
Iron Range isn't big enough to dominate it's own district now
The Duluth area's  only 40% of MN8 but it's so Dem it still tilts the seat. Back in the day it was much more dominant & an R never competitive.

Putting this area with Colin Peterson's NW base is "safe" but creates one of those "not quite competitive" seats I like to avoid; especially if you thought Peterson wont last the decade

After IL & MD I say "safety's off". Quinn or O'Malley would run a seat from MSP to Hibbing in a heartbeat. Why not us?

I did a map where MN 8 was 51%M , MN 7 49%M (w/Walz's hometown) & 4 suburb/exurb seats 49-51%M . Also made Bachmann run in MN1 (heh)
Just to be fair split Minneapolis so Ellison got all those gun totin bible thumpin Iron Range Dems in 5 :)  


[ Parent ]
51%M? I presume you mean D, R, or perhaps O. n/m.


Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"

[ Parent ]
M as in Johnny Mac
I assume.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
CA-45: John Campbell fails to win OC GOP endorsement
F&M PA poll
http://www.pennlive.com/midsta...

Sounds like they are not pushing anyone again.

28, Republican, PA-6


Some of the breakdowns
In the poll don't make sense. Go through them.
https://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/ke...

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Good poll for Rs
From Gallup/USAToday http://www.usatoday.com/news/p... see Obama as a failure, Ds lost their registered voters generic ballot lead which means that the GOP holds the house.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

Obama up badly in VA, 6-8 points
badly?
I think the typical way to phrase that would be: "Obama up greatly in VA, 6-8 points." I'm just saying...

Anyway, this is more consistent with the other polls than was the recently-touted CNU poll where Obama trailed. Quinnipiac, Mason-Dixon, and PPP all have Obama leading Romney in their latest polls. CNU was the outlier (and so was their poll from late last year).

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
"Badly"
Because I'm a Republican.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
+1


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
What is interesting
That Allen ATM is overperforming the GOP ticket.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
primary infighting
Seems to be dragging down the Presidential candidates. Has less effect downballot.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
in any case
Allen is of course a former Senator. No reason for him not to perform well merely because a handful of liberal blogs don't like the guy.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
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