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Political Roundup For February 23, 2012

by: SCRep

Thu Feb 23, 2012 at 09:00:00 AM EST


President

Arizona: A new NBC News-Marist poll in Arizona finds Mitt Romney leading the GOP primary with 43% of likely voters, followed by Rick Santorum at 27%, Newt Gingrich at 16% and Ron Paul at 11%.

CNN Debate: In what may have been the last debate of the Republican nomination race, Mitt Romney challenged Rick Santorum's credentials as a fiscal conservative in a combative debate last night. Romney sought to dismantle Santorum's claim to be the authentic conservative in the race. At times, Romney received help from Ron Paul, who also largely targeted Santorum's record as a fiscal conservative. The consensus afterwards seemed to be that Santorum did not put in the performance needed headed into a critical last weekend of campaigning before Arizona and Michigan vote Tuesday.

Michigan: A new WXYZ/Detroit Free Press poll in Michigan finds Rick Santorum leading Mitt Romney in the by three points, 37% to 34%, followed by Ron Paul at 10% and Newt Gingrich at 7%. Another 12% are either undecided or refused to answer. The poll finds that among Republican voters, Santorum leads Romney by 41%. Among Independent voters, Romney leads Santorum by 30%.

Oklahoma: A new Rasmussen survey in Oklahoma finds Rick Santorum with a big lead over Mitt Romney in the GOP presidential race with 43%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 22%, Mitt Romney at 18%, and Ron Paul at 7%. The Oklahoma primary is on March 6.

Romney: Mitt Romney unveiled a plan to cut all six income tax brackets by 20%. Romney's earlier economic plan called for preserving the current top tax rate of 35 percent, while holding out the promise of lower rates later in an overhaul of the tax code. But facing a major challenge from Rick Santorum, the campaign unveiled the new plan in the hopes it would give him a boost among conservatives.

Santorum: The Red, White and Blue Fund Super PAC supporting Rick Santorum has bought an additional $600,000 television ad buy in Michigan. The group said the ad would be a contrast with Mitt Romney. The group spent $663,500 in the state last week. Mitt Romney and allied Super PAC's are heavily outspending their rivals in the state.

Senate

Maine: Andrew Ian Dodge, a former Tea Party organizer who was running in the Republican primary against Sen. Olympia Snowe, will now run as an independent. Snowe still faces businessman Scott D'Amboise in the Republican primary.

Michigan: A NBC News/Marist poll has Sen. Debbie Stabenow leading Pete Hoekstra by 53 percent to 32 percent among registered voters. Fifteen percent of Michigan voters said they were undecided. Hoekstra's disadvantage could reflect some fallout related to an ad run by his campaign in Michigan on Super Bowl Sunday. Hoekstra's campaign has now scrubbed the ad from its YouTube page and has taken down a related website.

Virginia: A Rasmussen poll of the Virginia Senate race has Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican George Allen both at 46% support. Three percent prefers some other candidate, and five percent are undecided. Polling so far of this race has shown it even, with no candidate at more than a couple point lead in any survey.

Wisconsin: A new Marquette Law School poll shows former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson leading Democratic Rep. Tammy Baldwin 48 to 42 percent. Baldwin leads Mark Neumann, 44 percent to 40 percent, and state Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald, 45 percent to 37 percent.

House

CA-21: Former Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante says he is considering a run for the newly created 21st Congressional District. The former Fresno area state legislator rose during the 1990's to be Assembly speaker, was elected lieutenant governor in 1998 and served two terms, and then lost his run for governor in 2003. Democrats lost their star recruit here when state Sen. Michael Rubio dropped out of the race.

CA-30: Sen. Barbara Boxer has endorsed Rep. Howard Berman in his member versus member matchup with Rep. Brad Sherman. Boxer said she was angered by a Sherman mailer that tried to tie Berman to a San Bruno pipeline explosion in 2010. Boxer joins Sen. Dianne Feinstein, Gov. Jerry Brown and 23 House Democrats from California backing Berman. Sherman has only two endorsements from his fellow delegation members, Reps. Judy Chu and Grace Napolitano.

NC-9: Former state Sen. Robert Pittenger will become the 10th Republican to announce for the seat of retiring Rep. Sue Myrick. If nobody gets 40 percent in the May primary, the race will go to a runoff in July. Jennifer Roberts is the only Democrat in the race.

PA-12: The campaign of Rep. Mark Critz is claiming that Rep. Jason Altmire does not have enough valid signatures on his nominating petition to qualify for Congress. Critz says of the 1,651 signatures submitted, enough were invalid that Altmire did not meet the necessary 1,000 signatures to qualify to appear on the ballot. The Critz campaign filed its complaint in court Tuesday, but a hearing has not been set.

Governor

Florida: 2010 Democratic nominee Alex Sink sounds like she's thinking about a rematch with Gov. Rick Scott. Sink is back on the speaking circuit and has launched a nonprofit think tank, the Florida Next Foundation, to promote a Democratic agenda on issues affecting families and small businesses. Some Democrats want a new face and think the party should look elsewhere, but their lack of a statewide bench leaves them with limited options.

Washington: A new PPP poll of the Washington governors race finds Democrat Jay Inslee and Republican Rob McKenna tied with 42% each, with 16% of voters undecided. This poll differs from two polls out in the last few weeks from SurveyUSA and Elway that had McKenna with a 9 and 10% point lead.

Wisconsin: Wisconsin Secretary of State Doug La Follette is moving towards a run for a governor against Gov. Scott Walker should a recall campaign succeed. He will file the papers this week, he said, but has has not completely made up his mind.

Other

National Journal Vote Ratings: Sen. Tom Coburn from Oklahoma rates the most conservate, and New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand and Oregon Sen. Jeff Merkley most liberal, according to the 2011 National Journal Congressional Vote Ratings. National Journal will release full House and Senate ratings for all members this week.
SCRep :: Political Roundup For February 23, 2012
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Political Roundup For February 23, 2012 | 158 comments
AR-04/Tom Cotton
From GradyDem...

Marcus Richmond, Republican No. 3 in the AR-04 race has dropped out and endorsed Tom Cotton. [Richmond] was taking votes from Cotton as of a few months ago.

Great news! Why would anyone, other than her family, back Rankin over Cotton?

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!

Name rec from her previous run
Cotton is a better choice by far, though.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home and internship), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Rankin
She's so unimpressive it's remarkable. Cotton is super impressive... Harvard undergrad and JD, military experience, smart guy, charismatic... how could anyone favor her?

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!
[ Parent ]
um you missed the best part
He worked for McKinsey!  
[ Parent ]
So Romney Panders? Again?!
This guy is not serious about the debt. I don't want him anywhere near the Presidency.  
Bustamante, ugh!
Nominating him guarantees we lose that district. I wish he would just go away.

http://www.theelectionsgeek.blogspot.com
29, Post-Modern, Female, CA-31 (hometown), UT-02 (current)
Or him placing in top 2.
Which I am afraid might happen because of his name ID.

http://www.theelectionsgeek.blogspot.com
29, Post-Modern, Female, CA-31 (hometown), UT-02 (current)
[ Parent ]
Harkin Vs. King - 2014?
http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

Looks like King may have his eyes on Harkin's Senate seat.  Imagine if Harkin retires and its Vilsack vs. King again?

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

Nah
IMO this doesn't sound like he plans to run, he's just using it as a ploy. King is smart and he knows that he can't win statewide while western Iowa fits him like a glove.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
50.4% of Americans pay income tax
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/new...

This is bad and not pleasant for me seeing I got my first paycheck at the new job and 20% goes out the window for taxes automatically.

27, Republican, PA-6

Nobody has the guts change it


24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
...
The figures include children, the retired and others who do not participate in the labour force.

Nonetheless, they largely reflect the sudden jump in the unemployment rate after the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent recession.



Democrat, NC-11
[ Parent ]
Not only that
They include a large amount of people who can only get Part Time work because a lot of companies have found other ways to be more efficient and need less FT workers.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
We can argue on the exact numbers
But the chart is what we should look at. Going up, up and up.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Oh, I agree it's a big problem
On multiple levels, not least being the aging of the population and what that means for Medicare, Social Security, etc.

But the odds seemed high that people would misunderstand "Americans" to mean "workers" so I just wanted to help out.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
There are reasons why
Several of which he listed.  Senior Population is booming, Immigration is bringing in more and more children, Jobs are changing hiring Practices.  I also hate to use a common line that has been beaten to death, but the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer.

But I would agree with you 100% that the tax code needs to be changed.  I doubt we would agree on HOW to do it though.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

[ Parent ]
Federal Income Taxes
It's not just children or seniors.

1. A couple with two children earning less than $26,400 will pay no federal income tax.

2. Social Security benefits are exempt from federal income taxes. That accounts for about 22% of the people who pay no federal income tax.

3. Taken together, the earned income tax credit, the child credit, and the childcare credit account for about 15% of the people who pay no federal income tax.

http://www.csmonitor.com/Busin...

A Free Press analysis of IRS data shows that, in 1996, people with incomes of less than $30,000 made up 99.5% of all the nontaxable returns. In 2009, that group made up 76% of those returns. On the other hand, people making more than $30,000 went from less than 1% of nontaxable returns in 1996 to 17% in 2009.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/...

With the child credit, people with large families can be middle class and pay little or no income tax. It's one of those Bush things to "promote families." As the chart shows, the percentage of people paying nothing rose dramatically from 34% to 42% even though the economy was booming in 2006. The middle class benefitted enormously from the Bush tax cuts, despite Democratic rhetoric that the Bush tax cuts were for the rich.

A lot of people think they pay Federal income tax because it's taken out of their paycheck every two weeks. Many don't realize they get all that money back in a refund when they file.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Social Security benefits NOT tax-exempt
When you start getting Social Security benefits, assuming it lasts that long, you'll quickly see that unless you are dirt poor, 85% of your benefits are fully taxable at the regular income tax rate.
[ Parent ]
Which is why SS benefits are currently means tested!
An upper income earner in the 35% tax bracket will return 35% of his Social Security check back to the Federal Gov in the forms of taxes. So upper income retirees only keep a portion of the SS benefits that are paid to them. The govt claw's back a good chunk in the form of taxes.
[ Parent ]
Jesus.
30K??!?

I know i live in a big city, but I don't think you can survive on 30K anymore. Do most states (where there is state tax) force those people to pay taxes on the sub-30K level?


An anti-public union, market-loving moderate.

[ Parent ]
I actually support a national sales tax
just not in lieu of income tax, so people like me that don't pay federal income tax can pay a federal tax. A national sales tax with lowered income tax rates I think can help, by broadening the tax base.

http://www.theelectionsgeek.blogspot.com
29, Post-Modern, Female, CA-31 (hometown), UT-02 (current)
[ Parent ]
That amounts to
A Tax increase on the poor, many of which would not be able to afford.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
It also amounts to a tax increase on the idle rich
who do not earn taxable income but instead live off of previously earned wealth.
[ Parent ]
It doesn't have to
We already give the poor all their Federal income tax back. Why not give them their sales tax back too? All you have to do is make a determination how much the poor would pay in sales tax and give that back to them based on their income tax returns.

Sales taxes are great for a few reasons:

1. You can't cheat on it or hide it. The money comes in.

2. In most states necessities are tax exempt. If you want to enjoy more than the basics you have to pay for it. Those that spend more would be taxed more. If times are tough and you cut back, you pay less.

3. It hits people who aren't paying taxes, but should. I had two years recently where my income was under $20,000. I was never poor, however. Income tax treated me as if I was. Yet I wasn't spending at that level. I was spending as if I made more. If I'm going to do that, I shouldn't be treated like a real poor person.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Why not make it impossible to cheat or hide
from income tax?

I don't think anyone will argue that spending as if "you" made more, is not a great personal finance strategy.

Nor do I think anyone would argue that sales tax is tough on people making sub 30K.


An anti-public union, market-loving moderate.

[ Parent ]
Because you cant
cash business which are unverifiable do exist and numbers can be fudged.  
[ Parent ]
Fully agree
There are two sides to the fiscal system: taxation and transfer payments.

The taxation part should be kept as simple, transparent and efficient as possible - and that means favoring a sales tax for the reasons you expose. Much less distortionary than other taxes.

This has nothing to do with ideology and it doesn't imply the overall situation of the poor would change at all - they would just be directly subsidized via the other side of the fiscal system to keep the status quo if that was the choice. In fact, their situation could easily improve because the entire fiscal system would be much more efficient, cheaper and produce more incentives to wealth and job creation.  

[ Parent ]
This Is a Policy Issue....
...which I'm not going to touch until there's a dedicated diary on the subject, but there are important political reason as to why I favor the income tax, and will never support a federal sales tax or VAT. I don't care what the economic arguments are.  
[ Parent ]
I think I know the argument
I disagree but as you say it's a matter of policy.

Allow me to note though that the principle if valid regardless of the existence of consumption taxes. It should be applied in the scenario of an income tax as well (or any other) - for example, a flat rate would be much more efficient and it wouldn't affect the progressiveness of the system. But at some point the left became convinced that a progressive fiscal system implies progressive taxation - it's a silly and illogical belief (although intuitive, I guess) but widely popular.  

[ Parent ]
national sales tax makes me nervious
(That we would get stuck with both a national income & national sales tax)

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.
[ Parent ]
Idiots in the media
That article from the local Charlotte TV station about NC-09 shows the old NC-09, not the new one. It's not that difficult to look up redistricting maps, journalists.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!
Depends on what the piece is on, obviously, but
until January 2013, the "old" NC-09 is the one in effect, obviously. So if it was just a random story about Myrick, they'd be right.
[ Parent ]
NC-09/270
No, it was on the race to replace her. Those lines are the new lines.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!
[ Parent ]
99% people
Don't know how the district looks like.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Exactly,
and this was a chance for a few to learn that was squandered.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home and internship), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Video
If you click on the video accompanying the article, the last part of it shows the new lines and the narration states the new lines are in effect.
[ Parent ]
New deal on MO state senate lines?
I guess this takes it out of the hands of judges?

http://www.stltoday.com/news/s...

I don't care so much for the state senate
The GOP had a 2/3 majority even in 2008. The house interests me.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
impressions
Yes, a deal would take it out of the hands of the judges.

Better yet, it looks like they actually started from scratch instead of basing it off either one of those two judges plans.

(I'm mostly referring to St Louis area along with the counties south as there are only so many ones to draw compact districts that minimize county splits)

In particular, St Charles county is two slightly overpopulated districts instead of the judges bringing a 3rd district in bring in 10K surplus population.

Outermost St Louis county district continues to be shared with Washington county.
This keeps the northern most Jefferson county district intact and basically keeps areas south of there fairly close to current map instead of the judges major redraw.

Of course new 24 looks like the Democrats could take it in 2014. Currently old 24 is the most likely Republican held seat to flip.

The state senate delaying approval of moving the filing deadlines would not stop the commission. It is note worthy that since this is an actual commission and not the judges panel, that the normal 30 day comment period does apply; and changes are possible. (But of course anything more than minor tweaks unlikely)


41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
and it looks like it passes State Constitutional muster
The only possible area of concern would be what are the VAP numbers of the two north county seats.

But even if one of them is brought below 50% to make a challenge possible, its unlikely somebody in the district will care enough to file suit anyway.

(And any remedies to that by chain reactions slightly help Republicans)

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Santorum up 4 in MI
Poll was taken 2 nights ago and last night. Probably before the debate. http://americanresearchgroup.c...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Joe Scarborough- Paul, Romney in an alliance

http://dailycaller.com/2012/02...

I've noticed this for a while now with Paul's ads and his debate attacks going all out on everyone but Romney.

26, IL-7,Fiscal Conservative

I know their families are very close.
There wives especially are all BFF, it would be awkward to go after Romney. I frankly sincerely doubt there's some secret deal.

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem
[ Parent ]
This is clear
I wonder if maybe Rand will be on the short list?  Or maybe Romney will appoint Ron to the Fed or Treasury?  

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
Ron is too toxic
for Romney to give him anything, other than maybe the chairmanship of a deficit reduction task force. Rand? maybe a cabinet post, but I don't think Veep is in the cards; he's both too green and too controversial.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
Paul and Romney are polar opposites on foreign policy
It'd be like George McGovern picking Scoop Jackson in '72. Nope.

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
IDK
I think a "Paul comission" might be a good straw man for Romney. RP could propose a gigantic number of cuts and Romney could "compromise" and only push through a few of them. It would be a good way to make a cuts package seem more moderate to Dems and Indie voters.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
Arkansas filing begins today
Follow along by clicking "Candidates who have filed for office" at this link: http://www.sos.arkansas.gov/el...

Democrats will have extra staffers at the Capitol and DPA Headquarters to assist with filing today and Republicans are holding a kickoff to the majority event in downtown Little Rock.

NY-13
This doesn't sound like something someone would do if he were guilty. Grimm is going out of his way to the DOJ and says here it's all, please investigate me!
http://www.capitaltonight.com/...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

More NY-13
And the FBI clears Grimm of vicious and unsubstantiated Dem smears.
http://www.silive.com/news/ind...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Interesting
I guess the Dem smears are repeated verbatim in the NY Times.  I can't say I am totally surprised.

35, Republican, NJ-11  
[ Parent ]
Breaking News!
The New York Times is the media branch of the D party.

How many people clicked on the link because they saw this headline by recent comments...?

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Rubio. Interesting story.
http://www.buzzfeed.com/mckayc...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Pascrell again tells Rothman to GTFO
http://www.politickernj.com/55...

The news Tuesday that former Giants star Harry Carson does not intend to run for election prompted the Pascrell campaign to renew its call for U.S. Rep. Steve Rothman (D-9) to reject his Democrat on Democrat fight and gird for a general election battle against U.S. Rep. Scott Garrett (R-5).

26, R, PA-01.



Pascrell is funny
I like him better than Rothman (more a function of personality than difference in voting record).  But does he really think people are that stupid when he repeats the nonsense that Rothman is moving into "his" district?  It's mostly Rothman's old district.  And a non-politician declining to run in the new 5th isn't exactly a great opportunity to harp on about Rothman's move.

Whatever....I am glad that the fight is on the Dem side.  But I still think that Garrett is in for quite a fight even against the no-names exploring a run.  He can't get better than 20%-25% in Hackensack and Teaneck.  He is looking at potentially a 12K vote deficit to make up in the added territory.  

35, Republican, NJ-11  

[ Parent ]
Pascrell has the talking points on his side
Of course he's going to exploit them.  He's a politician.  He's framing the issue the same way Obama frames his issues and Republicans frame theirs.  He's got the FACT that where Rothman currently lives is in the 5th, and he must move if he wants to live in the 9th.  That's a powerful and simple argument to have on your side.  If you have to start arguing "But a higher percentage of voters from the old this are in the new that and the this is a lower number of that..." Snooze!  You've lost 99% of the people.  It's not that people are stupid; they just don't have the time to spend on these things that we choose to.  Pascrell has a nice, tidy, simple argument, and the more he hammers it, the better chance that he overcomes Rothman's advantages.
[ Parent ]
Santorum
With a new ad in MI that should be very effective. http://www.youtube.com/watch?f...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

The ad would be better if there was sound with it
The silent words on the screen thing doesnt really do it for me. The ad would be a lot better with a narrator.
[ Parent ]
New Mitt Ad
...will be entitled, Why Does Rick Santorum Hate Deaf and Blind People?
[ Parent ]
GA: Mitt way back in third place
http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Rasmussen
They've been fairly harsh on Romney. They gave Santorum a 4 point lead in Michigan, the highest of 6 polls. They gave Santorum an 18 point lead in Ohio, also the highest. They and PPP, also harsh on Romney in almost every poll, had Arizona in single digits.

I don't like them much, due to methodology and transparency, but I wouldn't dismiss them either. I just wouldn't hold them up as the best poll and ignore all others.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
This
Isn't the only poll that has Mitt in third place in GA.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
True
There was one, but that was done the day after Santorum's big victories.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
If Newt was up 5 before last night...
I can probably fathom him winning by at least high single-digits come Super Tuesday. And he'll surely prove competitive in Oklahoma and Tennessee, too.

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Mitt up nicely in NJ
http://www.politickernj.com/ba...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

MT-SEN
Just like 2 other very recent polls, Rasmussen also has Rehberg up 3. http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

I see this as the 3rd most likely R pickup
after Neb and ND. Hard for Tester to win this with Obama getting around 40%.

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
Tester
Besides trailing by 3 in the last 3 polls, he's below 45% in each.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
40%
That seems low for Obama in Montana. I think he came within three percentage points in '08. I think he gets around 45%.
[ Parent ]
Yeah, I'm thinking 55-44 here
Which should be about the same margin in Indiana.

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
MT/IN
I think 55/44 for MT is pretty close to spot on, I think IN might be a point or two closer, maybe 8-9 point margin.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
Montana is one of those states
that should revert back closer to 2000/2004 R performance. I wouldn't be surprised if Obama is in the low 40's or below. Gore got 33% here in 2000. I would say 42% or so.

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
Roll Call Rates New Jersey
Rollcall
rates 6-6 unless Ms Adler catches fire in NJ.  I can't find much if any on her campaign as of yet and that includes a real website.  So its slow go so far.  
[ Parent ]
I think her home of Cherry Hill
was taken out of the district. I see that race as between lean and likely R.

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
Bares bones website
One splash page http://shelleyadlerforcongress dot com/

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Yup
if you want to volunteer, receive emails or contribute she has a site for you!!!

[ Parent ]
Kyl endorsed Quayle
http://www.politico.com/news/s...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Very Disappointing
Kyl's a guy where I think it's a good thing he's retiring...  
[ Parent ]
Santorum blew the Specter question last night
Specter says he was outright lying about his judge explanation. Sounded like a contrived answer to me, he had to make something up. Anyhow, Santorum's not going to win Michigan now. And with no more debates he may be finished.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

SC1-Charleston
And you believe Specter???!
Now that he's a Democrat?

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
I didn't believe Santorum
when he said that, it was obvious it was contrived. Specter merely confirmed it.

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
Well
I have known this story before Santorum said it last night!
Just search the web! Bush only supported him because of that promise.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Bush supported him
because he was an incumbent Republican Senator. That goes without saying. Santorum endorsed him because Santorum thought it was good for Santorum at the time. Nothing wrong with that. Anyhow, Santorum's had a very bad day yesterday.  

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
I've read now multiple articles from 2004 that confirm that
Here is President Bush quoted in his Specter's press release!!:

Sen. Specter has President Bush's full support. The president stated recently in Pittsburgh, "I'm proud of his leadership for the state of Pennsylvania. I look forward to working with him as the chairman of the Judiciary Committee to make sure my judges get through and get appointed.

http://articles.mcall.com/2004...

Specter is a liar! He should get a pants on fire from politifact!

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Bush was not going to endorse a challenger
to an incumbent Republican senator. He didn't once in his time in office. No head of a party does that. That's clear.

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
Can you answer to the point?
Here in a short press release, all Specter is touting is that Bush supports him because he will support his judicial nominees! There is no other point in this press release. Specter is a liar.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
I don't care about why Bush said he endorsed
him, he did every Republican senator up for reelction. If that had not been in the press release he would have his endorsement anyway. It's a moot point.

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
The point isn't Bush
The point is that Specter is a liar.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Agreed
It was such a softball question that I expected Santorum to hit it out of the park. All he had to say was "Mitt didnt you vote for Paul Tsongas for President in the Democrat primary in 1992? At least Specter was a Republican at the time. But I did endorse Specter in 2004 and Sen Specter did let me down and he let America down when he sold out the principles he claimed to believe in in a desperate attempt to cling to power. But his betrayl taught me an important lesson. You have to be warry of supporting politicians without a core belief, who will say anything to anyone to get elected. Which is why I couldnt endorse you the way I did in 2008 because I learned my lesson and I know too much is at stake to make that mistake again. We can risk voting for a Republican who will betray our principles when the liberal Democrats make him a better offer."
[ Parent ]
Agree
That's all he had to say. Instead he stepped in it.

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
It shows you how important having the resources on a campaign
for a good debate prep team is. Romney clearly has it and has his talking points. Santrorum at this point probably does not and pretty much just wings it ala Newt.

It shows me how dangerous and effective Santorum could be if his campaign had the resources to afford that kind of thing.....

[ Parent ]
At least he's down to 5 years
http://thehill.com/homenews/ad...

In 2008 he mentioned being in office for the "next 8-10 years."

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

AZ-04/Babeu Endorsement
In the most ironic (http://www.nytimes.com/1996/08/03/us/a-republican-congressman-discloses-he-is-a-homosexual.html) endorsement ever (the timing makes it even better), former US Rep Jim Kolbe endorsed Paul Babeu today.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!
Not ironic
Exactly the opposite. in fact.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home and internship), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Err, yeah...
I guess I meant amusing...

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!
[ Parent ]
PPP: Obama up big in WA
Romney fares worse that Paul and Santorum. Romney became super unpopular.
http://www.publicpolicypolling...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

A base of 230 electoral votes?
He's saying that Obama doesn't need to worry about the states in those first 230, because they're in the bag. Even giving him clear wins in Washington, New Mexico, and Michigan, he's at 217.

What else is in the bag?
New Hampshire - 4
Nevada - 6
Iowa - 6
Colorado - 9
Wisconsin -10
Virginia - 13
North Carolina - 15
Ohio - 18
Pennsylvania - 20
Florida - 27

It wouldn't be hard to get to 230 by plucking one or two states off the list. I just can't figure out which are safe enough that Obama doesn't need to bother with it.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
On 3 of these states
We had polls this week that had Obama up pretty nicely. WI, PA and VA.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
There you go
Obama doesn't have to bother with states accounting for 260 electoral votes. He only needs to run ads and campaign in 3 or 4 states to get to 270. If he can get Ohio, NOrth Carolina, or Florida in his solid column, he doesn't even have to do that.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
PA
We also had a PA poll that put Romney ahead, and Romney was doing well in Virginia before the past month, so we'll see what ends up happening come the GE.  
[ Parent ]
Arizona may already be over
http://www.nationalreview.com/...

The penchant for early voting takes a lot of steam out of last minute momentum.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Doesn't really matter here, only for the margin
Because Mitt led every AZ poll.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Santorum appeared to have closed that gap
In two polls this week. If that's accurate, he could win Arizona if he can keep the momentum going. We've seen him do it before. I wonder if they ask if people have already voted.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
PPP didn't last week
But will this week.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Not sure what specific poll it is, but...
Earlier in the week, I saw a survey (maybe the NBC/WSJ poll?) that had Romney and Santorum tied among Arizona Republicans who have yet to vote, but with Romney up a healthy 30 percent among early voters. If Santorum's momentum has truly stalled, which I'm almost positive of, this could prove disastrous for him. Think Romney-Gingrich Florida numbers.

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Erick Erickson endorses
http://www.redstate.com/erick/...

Young stars Adam Kirzinger and Mia Love are snubbed.  

Seems to be stupid endorsement day
Kyl for Quayle: http://dyn.politico.com/prints...

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
whoops
didn't see this linked below.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
Not a fan of Erickson
He has no real mind for strategy, and purity of ideals is nothing if you stand in the corner, shouting at people who don't hear. You're standing in the corner, out of conversations of power, because people cringe at your tone, which drowns out your words. I myself can be guilty of this, but never when an election is on the line.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home and internship), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Didn't know about this.
Ads
[ Parent ]
He ran it already in 2008
It's a good ad, but it doesn't really have the connection required to the race.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Big California News
Republican's have joined the effort to reform pensions vis-a-vis Jerry Brown's plan.

This could be rilly big, for us Californians.

http://www.dailybulletin.com/c...

An anti-public union, market-loving moderate.

I Love This Quote
Rick McClure, president of the Ontario Montclair Teachers Association, said most of what the governor proposed is unnecessary, as it relates to state teacher's retirement system.

"The problem is mostly related to the decline in investment returns in the last few years, but those returns are coming back and pension plans are designed to function over a long period of time," McClure said. "No one should make a decision on a pension plan based on one or two years of investment performance ... Our system does not require those kinds of solutions."

Talk about burying your head in the sand.  

[ Parent ]
I agree.
The market always has its ups and downs, but in the long term it does go up. Since the 1930s, the average rate of return has been 11%.

http://www.theelectionsgeek.blogspot.com
29, Post-Modern, Female, CA-31 (hometown), UT-02 (current)
[ Parent ]
Cuomo on redistricting
It doesn't look like he's backing down.
http://www.politicker.com/2012...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

I'm Near 100% Convinced...
...That the Courts will draw the Congressional map in NY.

I have no idea what will happen with the legislative maps, though.  

[ Parent ]
Bizzare F&M poll
Interestingly enough...

https://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/ke...

I am not sure any other pollster literally uses Pennsylvania registration numbers.  If you adjust to a model used by PPP or Q-Pac you would get a tie.

I still think we should take the 270 approach instead which involves sending guys with machine guns to your house demanding an answer.

27, Republican, PA-6

was that a German joke?
Because that seems rather off, if it were.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
Ja, in deutschen Meinungsumfragen gibt es meistens
kaum unentschlossene Wähler. Ich bin mir allerdings nicht sicher, ob das daran liegt, dass die Befragten, die sich nicht entscheiden können erschossen werden, oder ob die Umfrageinstitute solche Befragten einfach ignorieren und ausschlißen.
[ Parent ]
Ja


27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
I was surprised
How easily I understood what you wrote. Of course I speak Yiddish.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
TwoHundertSeventy
He told me he just threw together a bunch of random German phrases. :p

I'm assuming you speak French, English, Hebrew, and Yiddish. Am I assuming correctly?

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!

[ Parent ]
Courtesy of Google Translate
Yes, in German opinion polls, there are usually
no undecided voters. However, I am not sure if this is because respondents who choose not to be shot, or whether the survey respondents simply ignore such institutions and exclude.


R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
Ignore such "responses"
I know in Canada, all polls only mention the percentage among the decided voters. It's crucial because that is how you can really see how close one is to a majority. Not so. Important here, but it would be great if polls excluded the undecideds in the toplines.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Sorry
Should say "pollsters ignore"

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Shamlet
Oh. When I suggested to him that he respond in German, I thought he meant he was going to write a bunch of nonsense, but I guess I was wrong. :p

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!
[ Parent ]
Only a little français
In the other 3 I'm very fluent.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Nice!
I'm (obviously) fluent in English, very proficient in Spanish, and proficient in Greek.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!
[ Parent ]
For me, it's
native English speaker and basic sentences in Spanish and Portuguese (with some help from my fiance who is Brazilian).

http://www.theelectionsgeek.blogspot.com
29, Post-Modern, Female, CA-31 (hometown), UT-02 (current)
[ Parent ]
Yeah, much the same for me when I read or listen to
Yiddish. I can understand it pretty fluently.
[ Parent ]
How can you read Yiddish?
You know the Hebrew alphabet? If yes, that's very impressive.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Who speaks Yiddish?
It's not commonly used anywhere, so it's not like you're going to hear a random Yiddish conversation. My grandparents were the last two Yiddish speakers in my family. The language has a strong cultural tradition, especially in theatre, but the people keeping it alive aren't speaking it regularly. Strangely, my first two "Hebrew names" are actually the same word in Hebrew and Yiddish.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
Very very many
You don't live in Brooklyn. There are at least one million people that speak it fluently. Almost all of them ultra-Orthodox Jews in Brooklyn, Jerusalem, Ashdod, Bnei Brak, Bet Shemesh, Montreal, London, Manchester, Antwerp (where non-orthodox also speak it) and some other places.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
I can read the hebrew alphabet okay, but
I don't speak Hebrew. But Yiddish is pretty close to German, so I just have to decipher the words there. For Hebrew, I could transliterate it, but I wouldn't know what it means.
[ Parent ]
Impressive


24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Freedom of religion/Obamacare mandates poll
Quinnipiac

Do you think the federal government should require private employers to offer free birth control coverage as part of their health insurance benefit plans or not?

Registered voters
Yes - 47%
No - 48%

Catholics
Yes - 38%
No - 59%

I wonder what the numbers would be if the question was "Do you agree religious institutions should be exempted from the requirement if it violates their religious believes?".

Obama's compromise may weather the storm, but he hurt his popularity with Catholics and I don't see the gain.

Keystone Pipeline:

Support 64 - 23 percent. 89 - 7 Rs, 63 - 24 Is and 43 - 38 Ds. The GOP needs to make this an issue if gas prices keep going up.

Political Roundup For February 23, 2012 | 158 comments
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Elections have consequences -- from the race for President to the race for one seat on a city council. The political economist Max Weber wrote that the state possesses a monopoly on the legitimate use of force. But in the United States, the state is divided into myriad federal, state, and local entities. And the elections to fill those entities are the products of the fascinating interactions between campaigns, party affiliations, voter turnout, and the media spotlight. Red Racing Horses analyzes those elections -- from a Republican-leaning perspective -- to keep a close eye on the process of electing officials, and to offer our perspective on the election-related issues of the day. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog.

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