Red Racing Horses
Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?


About

Red Racing Horses analyzes and discusses elections from a Republican-leaning perspective. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog. Please read our site Terms of Use.

~The RRH Moderators: BostonPatriot, Daniel Surman, GoBigRedState, Greyhound, James_Nola, Right Reformer, Ryan_in_SEPA, and Shamlet.

Problems logging into your account? Inside information? Complaints? Compliments? E-Mail us at: redracinghorses@yahoo.com. We check it often!

RRH's 2014 General Election Preview Series:

Part 7 - Senate

Part 6 - Eastern Governors

Part 5 - Western Governors

Part 4 - Northeast/South House

Part 3 - Midwest/West House

Part 2 - Row Officers

Part 1 - Legislatures and Local

The Current RRH Race Ratings:

Senate

Governor

House

Row Officers


Political Roundup for February 27, 2012

by: James_Nola

Mon Feb 27, 2012 at 08:00:00 AM EST


President

Santorum: Santorum joins Mitt Romney in receiving Secret Service protection. No word on if the Santorum campaign requested it, or if the Secret Service offered it, as with Romney. Gingrich has requested protection, but has not received a reply from the Secret Service. Any guesses or clever suggestions for Santorum's code name?

More Santorum: Santorum will hold his election night party in Grand Rapids, MI.

Romney: Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer gave the Romney campaign a late boost in Arizona's primary, which is tomorrow. She endorsed Romney on Meet the Press yesterday, citing his business experience and electability.

More Romney: Unlike 2008, when conservative talk radio hosts united against McCain, this year some have remained open to, or are outright supporting, the race's moderate, Romney. Romney has also been stepping up his appearances on talk radio in upcoming primary states, as well as putting many of his surrogates, including Donald Trump, on the radio.  

More Romney: Ann Romney is putting her foot down: no more debates for Mitt, she says. Not sure it's entirely her decision, though.

Daniels: He was a no in May, he was a no in August, he was a no in October, and he's still a no.

Michigan: PPP is out with the first day of its tracking poll, and it has Romney retaking the lead. Romney leads Santorum 39-37, with Paul at 13 and Gingrich at 9. The key? A one week drop of 29 points in Santorum's favorability rating. Among the 16% who have already voted, Romney leads 62-29. Santorum actually leads 39-34 with those who have yet to vote.

Arizona: PPP has Romney surging to a 17 point lead, 43-26 over Santorum, with Gingrich at 18 and Paul at 11. They have Romney sweeping Evangelicals, Tea Partiers, very conservatives, Mormons, Non-Mormons, and every age group. They also find Gingrich in second and Santorum in third among those who watched Thursday's debate.

More Michigan, Arizona: We Ask America polled yesterday and found Romney up 37-33 on Santorum, with Paul at 18 and Gingrich at 13. In Arizona, they find Romney opening up a 16 point lead, 43-27, with Gingrich at 21 and Paul at 10.

Convention: Maine Governor Paul LePage has become the first major office holder to support the idea of a "floor fight" at the convention.

General election: The American Future Fund is spending $4 million targeting Obama on his ties to Wall Street in 9 swing states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. The 1 minute long ad does a pretty good job of turning Obama's assault on Wall Street against him.

National: Gallup's national tracking poll shows Romney surging and Santorum tanking post-debate. Romney now leads Santorum 31-29, with Gingrich at 15% and Paul at 11%. The tracker is based on a 5 day rolling average, so 2 days of polling are still from before Thursday's debate.

Tennessee: Santorum holds a large 33-17 lead over Mitt Romney in one of the bigger Super Tuesday prizes. Newt Gingrich, who had been focusing on TN and GA, is in 4th place, with 10%, behind Ron Paul, who has 13%. Pretty pathetic for Gingrich. The poll was taken Feb. 16-22, all before Thursday's debate.

Senate

Texas: Former ESPN analyst Craig James is betting the farm on Santorum. He has released a TV ad in which he says not once, but twice, that he supports Santorum.

Arizona: Former AZ Democratic Party Chair Don Bivens, whose campaign relies on being seen as the candidate of Arizona Democrats, with Richard Carmona being seen as the candidate of Washington Democrats, has lost the endorsement of former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, who is seeking a comeback in the 1st district.

Washington: PPP shows Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) in a pretty solid position. She leads announced candidate, state Sen. Michael Baumgartner 51-36. She leads rumored candidate, Seattle Port Commissioner Bill Bryant, 50-36. I actually think Bryant has the ability to make this much closer, for two reasons: 1) The dude got elected as a Republican in Seattle and 2) He has a huge self funding ability.

House

FL-07: Rep. Sandy Adams, who now finds herself in the middle of a tough re-election in the primary after expecting to easily be re-elected, is nevertheless finding time to focus on her current district, including the parts that won't be helping her re-election in her new district.

VA-10, 05: retired Air Force General John Douglass (D) is dropping out of the race in VA-10, against Rep. Frank Wolfe, but now may be running in VA-05, where he now lives due to redistricting.

NY-26: Rep. Kathy Hochul (D) was booed at a town hall meeting for her support of President Obama's contraceptive mandate.

States

South Carolina Gov: Fits News, which as SCRep tells us has been an anti-Haley news source ever since 2010, when its founder Will Folks alleged an affair with Haley, speculates on possible 2014 primary opponents for Haley, who has had a rocky first year in office. They include tea party aligned Treasurer Curtis Loftis, US Reps. Mick Mulvaney and Tim Scott, State Senator Tom Davis (who has also been mentioned as a likely primary challenger to US Sen. Lindsey Graham), and Attorney General Alan Wilson.

Washington Gov: Rep. Jay Inslee is holding a fundraiser with...Eliot Spitzer? Seems like an odd choice, but when you're in a close race, I guess you take what you can get.

North Carolina Gov: Former Treasurer Richard Moore (D), who has a self-funding ability and who ran for Governor in 2008, says he will not run again in 2012.

Florida House: Miami Rep. Richard Steinberg (D) has resigned his seat after it was revealed that he had been sending stalkerish text messages to assistant US Attorney Marlene Fernandez-Karavetsos. He is under investigation by the Secret Service.

Redistricting

Florida: The Florida Supreme Court, in a 4-3 ruling, said that a coalition of the League of Women Voters, the National Council of La Raza and Common Cause of Florida may not file an amended map.

Kansas: The furor over the Congressional map appears to be spilling over into lines for the State Senate. Sen. Tim Owens (R), who drew a Congressional map that weakened Rep. Lynn Jenkins' district has now drawn a Senate map that would endanger many conservative Republicans. Owens is in the moderate wing of the KS GOP, and if you haven't heard, there's a big moderate/conservative split in the KS GOP.  

James_Nola :: Political Roundup for February 27, 2012
Tags: (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

Mitt's money problems
Camp Fin Institute: Obama raising 47% of all donations from small donors, Santorum 48%, Gingrich 46%, Paul 39% and Romney 9%.
It's not so much the money, but what it shows. Conventional wisdom.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Morning Thoughts
TX-Sen: wouldn't that just alienate voters who might be voting for another candidate in the presidential primary?

VA-05: Hurt should win anyway.

WA-Sen: Still hopeless...

KS-Redistricting: These guys are annoying. Whatever happened to party unity?

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)


Kansas Senate
Well, if they are still fighting on the Kansas Senate map as well, perhaps I should post my diary on how I think it should look like.

(Won't be until after work)


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


I Hope You Gave Leveanworth co. Its Own Seat! (nt)


[ Parent ]
yes and no
Yes; I have a seat that contains nothing but Leavenworth county. (And its an open seat)

However, making a senate seat coextensive with the county boundary would have been way over populated.
So I cut the NW corner of the county out of the district to get the district down to proper population.

Riley county (Manhattan) becomes a new coextensive seat.


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
diary now posted


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Roundup and analysis
Santorum still up 7 in OH after the debate.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/inst...

I assume that the debate had less of an effect than the barrage of negative ads by Romney in Michigan and AZ.

Mitchell/Rosetta poll has Santorum regaining the lead in MI. Another poll has Mitt up 8, but was taken on Thursday. http://www.freep.com/article/2...

Bottom Line: PPP and Mitchell taken on Sunday have the race within 2 points. However, WAA also polled yesterday and found Mitt up 4. We might yet see an upset. Maybe Mitt really had a bigger lead and it's shrinking. Who knows.

2 polls for Obama, one great for Republicans with Obama trailing and Rick faring best against Obama.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/p...

One great for Obama with him up double-digits and becoming popular with 53% approval in the Politico poll commissioned by bipartisan pollsters.
http://www.politico.com/news/s...

What is interesting is that in this poll, Ds don't have a lead on the generic ballot (actually 1 point) with Obama gaining. Another data point for the CW that Obama may win reelection easily, but Ds won't regain the house.

26, Male, R, NY-10


Potential Problem with Mitchell/Rosetta Poll

The Mitchell/Rosetta poll appears to have a sample that is 50% evangelical.  If that's who votes, then Santorum will win.  But I think that would be unprecedented for a Michigan primary.  If you re-weight the poll to mirror past electorates (40% evangelical), then Romney is ahead by about 1.5 points, which is around where I suspect the race really is at this point.  

It will all come down to turnout.  


[ Parent ]
Could be
We'll see. It really looks like a tossup with the 6 new polls today.

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Spell Check
Frank Wolf, not Frank Wolfe.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
The Steve Plan for a resurgent GOP: Fewer Steve Kings, more Steve Litzows


Rasmussen has Mitt leading Barack today
For the first time in a while. http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

26, Male, R, NY-10

I think
the contraceptive mandate is finally showing up in this poll.

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1



[ Parent ]
Seems a bit late
ALso, no offense, but since you put 'Pro-Life' in your sig, I think that you're a bit more ferevent abou the issue than the average voter.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Also being Catholic lol
I also think high gas prices are hurting him too.

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1



[ Parent ]
Yea
I highly doubt thats it.  More likely Gas.

Still odd that only Gallup and Rasmussen are really showing this.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
i'm going to go out on a limb
And say that nobody gives a damn about contraception one way or another.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Where contraception might matter is PA
PA is 53% Catholic.  Gas prices should affect Obama nationally, while the contraception issue, if it is an issue, should make a difference in a state like PA.  The Catholic, union voter from PA who normally votes Democrat might be swayed.  This issue won't have as much of an effect in a state like Ohio, which is only 21% Catholic.

33, R, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Something is showing up
From the USA Today poll:

http://www.usatoday.com/news/p...

•Former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum tops Obama 50%-45% in the swing states. Nationwide, Santorum's lead narrows to 49%-46%.

•Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney edges Obama 48%-46% in the swing states. Nationwide, they are tied at 47% each.



Right-Wing Populist

[ Parent ]
Gallup
Has always been worst for Obama. PPP in the middle(nationally, not on its state polls), with WSJ/NBC/WashPost all the most favorable.

Rasmussen oscillates between those extremes. I doubt Obama was up 10 on Romney last week, and these results are probably too pessimistic. That said, Obama is almost certainly doing worse.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Another poll shows a reversal in MI
Santorum up 1. http://americanresearchgroup.c...
I love the drama! We may really not know who will win MI. Gonna be a fun night tomorrow as one that doesn't have a horse in the race.

26, Male, R, NY-10

This pollster
Never had Mitt up and he closed from a 4-point Santorum lead to 1 point, but still Rick is up 1 here.

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
And Rasmussen
Also shows a reversal, Mitt's 6-point lead shrank to 2 points.http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/michigan/2012_michigan_republican_primary
Drama!

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Drama!
You have to admit, regardless of how you feel about Mitt or Rick, that Santorum taking Michigan would make for a far more riveting media storm now that nearly everyone has prematurely written him off. The wailing and gnashing of teeth would be epic!

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
WI-Gov:
Walker will not be challenging the sigs.

Link

(h/t to Gpack3 at DKE)

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


Makes sense
Not worth spending time on.

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Might be Off topic but is it?
here's a story on folks who have been landing jobs:

http://www.marketwatch.com/sto...

Here's a riddle.  How can the economy have added 1.8 million jobs in the last 9 months and yet personal income has been nearly flat?  The answer is if the new jobs are paying less then what the old jobs were then yes more jobs do not equate in an increase in personal income.  We are still seeing higher paying government & manufacturing jobs declining while lower paying service & retail jobs are being added.  

Yes a few fortunate people have landed better paying jobs.  Even during the darkest recession that happens but stat wise that's not what is happening.  I know its been years since I thought I could do better by switching jobs.  There is an underlying pain in the economy that IMO is showing up in these polls.  Folks are thinking jobs what jobs?  I know one fella who is almost certain to lose his good job in a year or so, corporate buyout situation and he is very concerned that he can find a job near what he is earning.  


NY SD-27
NOM also spending now against Fidler.
http://www.politicker.com/2012...

26, Male, R, NY-10

Study: Paul didn't attack Mitt even once in 20 debates
http://thinkprogress.org/polit...
Now someone convince me that there isn't some unholy alliance.

26, Male, R, NY-10

all is fair
in love, war and politics. This doesn't phase me.

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!


[ Parent ]
Paul/Romney
Yea, very strange.  I can't imagine Romney actually appoints Ron to the Fed or Treasury, so maybe its for Rand?

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Romney might not be as objectionable
Paul never voted the opposite way Romney did. He watched Gingrich and Santorum for years make votes he wished they wouldn't. He also got to know them on some level. He knows Santorum is a big spender. He's learned about Romney's.

He may also feel that if he's going to increase his votes he has to steal from the Un-Romneys.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Links
NY Redistricting Faces Showdown; All Sides Dig In
http://www.longislandpress.com...

Silver: No Redistricting Vote This Week
http://www.nydailynews.com/blo...

Ruben Diaz Sr. Blasts Congressional Redistricting Efforts: 'The Bronx Is Not a Colony'
http://www.politicker.com/2012...

Ohio state lawmakers to unveil proposal for drastic changes to redistricting process
http://www.ohio.com/news/local...

Early voting begins in Illinois
http://www.chicagotribune.com/...

Rothenberg ratings changes
http://rothenbergpoliticalrepo...
According to my formula Rothenberg has the senate at 50.2 Democrats. This is notable because it's the first time any rating service has had more Democrats.

Cook is 51.7 Republicans. Sabato is 51.8. RCP is 52.1. Roll Call is 51.6. So Rothenberg is an outiler

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Is it possible
For Rs in OH to change the law on who draws the legislative lines? Under the current form, Ds can easily be in the deep minority in the legislature and have a few statewide offices and redistrict the GOP into oblivion.
I also wonder if they can do that mid-decade. No referendum possible on this part I think.

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
OH
My prposal would be for four statewide officeholders plus the Speaker of the OH House to draft the plans for the OH House and OH Senate should the legislature fail to produce a plan. If this sounds familiar, it's because this is equivalent to the Texas Legislative Redistricting Board.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
I got rebooted
off KOS when I suggested Manhatten had too many CDs.  Now the plan is Rangel to Mt Vernon?  How about water continuity??

Are there no democrats except those in the City?  Manhattan that is.  


[ Parent ]
Rangel to Mt. Vernon
carries major dummymander risk, especially if you're creating another D+35 district for a latino Rep. Engel needs those Dems and if you do it wrong you could weaken him or Lowey to the point of open-seat vulnerability.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Why are we arguing against competitive NYS elections
Since it's virtually impossible to draw an NY seat that's more than R+5 we shouldn't allow the Dems to draw a whole slew of noncompetitive D+8/D+10 particularly by diluting minority voting power to do it

Let them win some +3/+5 seats we act giddy to get  


[ Parent ]
Actually, you're wrong
You can draw one seat graeter than R+5 in NYC and one in Western NY. It's also possible to draw an R+6 in Central NY, if we memory serves me.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
wtf
According to a State Senate staffer, current proposals for the new Latino Congressional seat include Washington Heights and Corona in Queens while majority of the district is located in the Bronx. This would leave room for Mr. Serrano to maintain his seat while giving the Bronx Democrats control over the new seat as well. While the original NAACP proposal for Mr. Rangel's district included Washington Heights and much of the Bronx, a source in the Legislature told The Politicker a new plan for the district allows Washington Heights to be part of the Latino district and decreases the territory in the Bronx by extending it into Queens. Under this plan, Mr. Rangel's district would include Randall's and Riker's Island. This would allow the district to include a contiguous swath stretching from Mount Vernon to Harlem and the predominantly black populations in Queens' Astoria and Queensbridge Houses in Queens via the islands.

Astoria, Queensbridge, Harlem, Mount Vernon? What a mess.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
This OH Proposal Sounds Dumb
Just say No.

[ Parent ]
NY congressional redistricting
No vote this week.
http://www.nydailynews.com/new...

26, Male, R, NY-10

Do our Michiganders agree
That Rs should hold HD-51 tomorrow even if they might not otherwise, because of the primary turnout. primary turnout when races are tight and heavily contested could be high.
Did rs schedule it intentionally on this day?

26, Male, R, NY-10

Yes
Republicans will likely hold this seat.  When someone is recalled, the replacement is selected during the next scheduled election, which in this case happened to be Feb. 28th.  It's just a coincidence that it's also the GOP primary.    

[ Parent ]
Thanks


26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Yeah, this is a definite hold for now
It's a swing seat even in real elections, so with a mostly-GOP turnout on primary day, it'll be no sweat holding it.

Frankly, Scott being recalled was great. We got rid of a loser of a Rep., installed McMillin (far more conservative) as Education committee chair so we can move some things along there, and we get to keep the seat. It's a no-lose.


[ Parent ]
Haha... Kerrey will run for NE-SEN
I guess crossroads
Will have to bring out the damning NYC ads once again.

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
At least
this'll make the race interesting. Kerrey must be really optimistic about Obama. I can't envision the Dems holding the Nebraska senate seat this year absent an Obama landslide, and perhaps not even then.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
News Conference
Maybe they'll have a big news conference where they'll serve bagels and cream cheese.

I don't think you hitch your wagon to Obama in Nebraska. Ben Nelson never has.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Absolutely not
You run from Obama as far and as fast as you can. Better yet, you just pretend Obama doesn't exist. Why remind anyone if you don't have to? But if Obama is riding high nationally, then it'll boost Dems everywhere, including Nebraska, and give Kerrey less of a hole to climb out of.

As you basically point out, if you're a Democrat in a state like Nebraska, you assume that the Obama voters are in your pocket. The election obviously hinges on voters who aren't voting for Obama splitting their ballot, so clearly you don't tie yourself to Obama. You just hope Obama does well enough to narrow that vote gap in a meaningful way.

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
I'll Take It
It's an uphill climb, still Likely R, but with no Heinemann to be scarred of, It's worth a shot.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
I don't think he should betray his family
He's already said that running for Senate is not "in the best interests" of his family. That was two weeks ago. I don't see how anything's changed.

Running for office, expressly against the best interests of your family, isn't going to do him any favors. If anything I'd be pretty upset if I were his wife and kids.

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)


[ Parent ]
Interesting point from David Nir
Wow, wait. Could this have been the play all along? Recall that Nebraska has a very unusual-I believe unique-filing system. Incumbents must file by Feb. 15, regardless of whether they're seeking re-election or running for some different office. Non-incumbents, however, have until March 1 to file-non-incumbents like Bob Kerrey, for instance. Why does this matter? Because the Republican that Democrats most feared might run, Gov. Dave Heineman, made a lot of noise but didn't wind up joining the race. Kerrey's original announcement came on Feb. 7; had he gotten in, Heineman may have felt increased pressure to run himself. But by "declining" when he did, Kerrey could lull Heineman into not running... and then pull a switcheroo after the 15th. This would be some pretty clever trickery if so.

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
All for not
Seems like he had something up his sleeve, but the chance that he will be the Senator from Nebraka next year is still below 10%.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
I don't buy that
This is typical Bob Kerrey. He is as indecisive as they come. If that were the case, he would have got in just after the Feb. 15 deadline for incumbents passed.  He genuinely couldn't decide what he wanted to do.

3 thoughts here:
1. This will make little difference in the race. My thought all along was that this race was lean R with Nelson, likely R with Kerrey, and safe R with anybody else.

2. I find it strange that the only story we have on this is the Washington Post story about him talking to Harry Reid according to an aide. Local media here in Nebraska has absolutely nothing on this other than that. If it does end up being true(and it wouldn't surprise me if it doesn't), it just reinforces how disconnected he is from the state.

3. If he does indeed file, this could rub some Democrats in the state the wrong way. Chuck Hassebrook isn't a huge force, but he does have some supporters, and he had to forgo running for re-election to his Board of Regents seat to run for Senate. Now Hassebrook will be left without an office. This is another reason why I don't buy the idea that Kerrey was somehow playing some kind of game-if he indeed was planning to run all along, he would have signaled his intention to any credible candidate who was going to file.

42, R, NE-1.


[ Parent ]
Perhaps he is getting up there in years
No credible person announces they talked to their family and decided not to run and then two weeks later reverses.  Their is more to the story here. Let's wait for it to become official first. Feel bad for Bob Kerrey if he goes through with this only to be embaressed. That will be part of his legacy.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
You never know
Maybe his family is as indecisive as he is?

No one will care about that in November.

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
They will care
about things that matter-like the fact that his views are out of step with an overwhelmingly Republican state. Any Democrats who think this is great news need to temper their enthusiasm. The chances of winning go from about 1% with Hassebrook to about 10% with Kerrey. It's better, but not significantly so.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
Well
I'm not jumping up and down with joy or anything. The seat just went from Safe GOP to (very) Likely GOP in my estimation. Without a dramatic shift in the political landscape, I don't see how Kerrey gets to 50%+1.

What I'm pleased about is that this will nonetheless force the GOP to expend some resources in Nebraska that they would otherwise send elsewhere. Since I think Missouri, Montana, and Virginia will come down to possibly hundreds of votes, that could be a difference-maker.

Of course, if the Dems go all in on Nebraska, which I think is less plausible, then that could be cancelled out.

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
What will probably be more relevant
to Missouri, Montana, and Virginia coming down to a couple hundred or thousand votes either way, was the approx $2 million the DSCC and allied groups spent in Neb. in support of Nelson to convince him to run for another term. The damage has already been done on your side. Bob Kerrey is an afterthought.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Another point about this being a "play" on Kerrey's part
Heineman was never going to run. Period. He wouldn't have run even if Kerrey had announced he was going to run before the Feb. 15 deadline for incumbents. I know political junkies love to fantasize about things like this, but people here in Nebraska know-Heineman simply never was going to run. He has never shown the slightest interest in running for Senate. He showed no interest in running in 2006 when many people tried to persuade him to enter the Senate race instead of fighting what seemed like a futile race against Tom Osborne in the Gubernatorial primary. He made a quick decision after his re-election as governor in 2010 to bow out of the Senate race. He never got close to running after that-he politely listened to those that wanted him to run, but that was it. Heineman simply was not a factor in any of this.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
Yeah
People are thinking way too hard. Heineman wasn't running for the seat. This is all on Bob Kerrey. I say let him run, It will be a major part of his legacy if it does. And its all on that one man.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
it's nice to have Kerrey on the stage again
While Democrats attack people like Pantano for attacking civilians in War (fully acquitted), they are excited about self-admitted civilian killer Bob Kerrey re-entering the fray.  I would never attack or begrudge either man, as I have never had to fight to defend my country in battle.  But it's nice to see the Democrats play the ol' hypocrisy card, again.

[ Parent ]
speaking as a democrat
who is undecided whether he morally could support Bob Kerrey, I'd say the difference is Kerrey has apologized many times for what he did.

However, the fact that it was decades ago probably helps too.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Latest news sounds like it is still a maybe, not a yes
Kerrey's prospective campaign manager told the Omaha World-Herald: "He's thinking about it. He has not made a decision". Also, no surprise that Chuck Hassebrook is not at all happy with these developments. He issued a press release today that says: "I do not believe the report that Bob Kerrey is getting in the Senate race. Bob Kerrey is a man of integrity. He told me as recently as a few days ago that he would assist my campaign. I gave up my seat on the University of Nebraska Board of Regents based on his word. I do not believe he would go back on it."

I am not at all considering this a done deal just yet. He has until Thursday to file-it would not surprise me if he doesn't.

42, R, NE-1.


[ Parent ]
Like I said
This may be about Kerrey getting up there in years. It's all about what kind of FORMER Senator he wants to go down as.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
I would be royally p'd
if I were Hassebrook, to the point where I'd consider staying in and just going scorched earth on Kerrey. If BK does get back in, it's a totally classless move to screw over somebody who in essence made a pretty big sacrifice for the good of his party.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Critz trying to boot Altimire off the ballot
http://www.politicspa.com/will...

Seems like they have a case. How do politicians not learn to swamp signatures?

27, R, PA-07.


I think that the challenge will fail
I don't see a judge taking a radical step as booting someone because someone might not live in the district but is still registered there.

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Probably will boot
This is one of the things judges frequently throw signatures out for in Pennsylvania.  Altmire seems to be violating the rules in bulk fashion though.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Anyway
The law is weird. Why can the congressman live outside of the district, but the signature collector not?

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Because of the US Constitution
The congressman can live outside the district because the Constitution says he can.  The Constitution makes no mention of petition circulators; hence, state law regulates that.

[ Parent ]
I know that
But it still doesn't make all that much sense.

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
The logic
is that nominating petitions should reflect residents of a district nominating one of their own for office.  Who better then one of your neighbors gathering those signatures.  That's logic of it.  Its old fashion citizenship 101.  Someone in your town gathers up signatures in that town and formally nominates one of your own to run for office.  


[ Parent ]
yeah
I think the laws make sense; I don't want someone from Los Angeles signing petitions for a Bay Area congressional candidate.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Viewing again the Hochul townhall videos
Hochul is in a heap of trouble.
http://news.yahoo.com/dem-cong...
It's petty likely that it goes to court and then she's screwed regardless. It's 52% McCain seat and she's a liberal. Many of the Obama voters in WNY are socially conservative. Hochul only one because crazy jack Davis bombed the race.

26, Male, R, NY-10

It's one of those things
Where she knows if she had to run in her current district she would be in trouble, but if the legislature draws the lines they will most likely look out for her. With the Courts who knows.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Being socially liberal
Can hurt in WNY even if the district gets a little bluer. Hochul is a fluke.

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Not sure why
People are treating one townhall as Gosepl and a candidats chances.  I'll take a poll over one town hall anyday.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
I can tell you the poll
No chance in hell that Hochul wins reelection if she stays in a R+6 district.

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Awesome maps by the NYT
Colored MI county map on percentages of Mitt, Johnny and Mike in the 2008 primary.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n...

26, Male, R, NY-10

Hillsdale County
Why does there always seem to be some random county where Ron Paul gets 2-3 times the vote he gets anywhere else in a state?

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Ask Ryan
He went to college there... That is the reason. It has a college.

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Hillsdale County
The college plays a role.  Supposedly in 2000 Bush got 80% in a campus strawpoll with the Libertarian coming in second at 15%.  These are largely your Austrian economics loving libertarian types in the econ department or anarcho-capitalists.

But the townies as the locals are negatively referred have a Ron Paul following as well.  They constitute the bulk of his support from what I gather looking at the precinct results.


28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
Wow
I knew Hillsdale was conservative but that straw poll just shocks me, considering it isn't a religious school. Are they out recruiting at Young Republicans meetings or something?

[ Parent ]
Hillsdale is unique
The county features one of the most heavily conservative non-religious schools in the country, which naturally makes it Paul central. So instead of liberal college kids going huge for Obama, you get conservative college kids going huge for Paul.

[ Parent ]
John McCain's Charleston strategy
is our master plan. (Reference to an old SNL episode: http://latimesblogs.latimes.co...

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04

[ Parent ]
The CAGOP is beyond pathetic
I know that they are in the minority, but this is one step further. http://blogs.sacbee.com/capito...
I mean, if you don't plan to campaign for it, why drain all your coffers for it?

26, Male, R, NY-10

It's always nice to be called pathetic
You miss the point of the referendum. The point wasn't to get it passed. It was never going to pass. Everybody knew that.

The commission drew 12 safe Republican districts. They decided only 5 of those would be on the November ballot. So there are 7 on the ballot in 2014.

The problem with that is that Republicans only have 6 senators not up for election this year. Leland Yee had his district eliminated and there's a Riverside County district with no senator. So even though there are 12 safe Republican seats, the GOP could end up with only 11 next year. We'll lose a district that we can't actually lose no matter how bad a year it is.

If they did new maps there'd be a better chance that 6 seats would be up this year. Then the GOP would only need to get 2 additional seats. That'll be far more doable than the 3 seats we need. It's even possible that a few of the competitive seats could become more Republican. There's no explanation on how they drew Sam Blakeslee into a safe Democratic district.

We actually won't mind going to the commission's districts in 2014, as we'll do better than 6 seats.

Yet the Supreme Court declined to follow the law and draw new districts. So we're left with a referendum we can't win and no new maps. It wasn't a waste of money. It really doesn't make a lot of difference if this costs Republicans a seat. It's all the same if the GOP gets 12 or 13 seats.

There's a chance Republicans can get 14 seats in the election. But not if we spend money passing a referendum that is sure to fail and may not help  us even if it did.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
I hear
And I apologize. I definitely didn't mean you as the CAGOP.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Here's the deal
The goal was to stop the new districts from going into effect, hoping to keep Democrats from getting two-thirds in the upper house. When the state Supreme Court ruled that the Commission's lines would be used, regardless of whether the referendum qualified for the ballot, the GOP strategy was thrown off-kilter.

The GOP will lose 1-4 seats in the State Senate in November, leading to a range from 26-29 members in the house in which 27 is the magic number. Democrats are anxious for 28, knowing that the party is certain to lose an Orange County seat in 2014. Of the four this year, one is a certain Dem pickup (SD17), another is likely (SD27) and two are toss-ups (SD05, SD31).

The main hope with the court redraw would be to eliminate that certainty in SD17, where Republican Sam Blakeslee was handed a very Democratic district.
But no.

Now the referendum...
Even if it passes, the court is under no obligation to make any significant changes to the maps. In fact, most people think the court would basically defer to the Commission, even if voters cast a majority of "no" votes on the referendum. (Remember, this is a referendum, so "no" means "yes, I want to overturn the law.")

This uncertainty leads to the article. It's highly unlikely that a George Joseph-type will come along for the party like he did during the signature gathering effort. There is too much at stake to invest very limited party dollars in a referendum that could be meaningless if the court eventually takes a pass on redrawing the districts.

An anti-public union, market-loving moderate.


[ Parent ]
AZ-9
Is Cherny the frontrunner? He's raising big money. http://www.azcentral.com/membe...
I still want to run against Sinema.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Cherny is a DLCer and a No Labels founder
"D.L.C. was in some ways the big bang," said Andrei Cherny, the president of Democracy Journal and a founder of No Labels. "You've seen a lot of other groups rushing in over the past few years to fill various aspects of what the D.L.C. has been about."

Mr. Cherny said the missions of the groups are different even as they all broadly pursue a path that eschews the rigid ideologies of either the left or the right.

"No Labels has very much said we're not about an ideology or a specific agenda. We're about a bipartisan approach to problem solving,"

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes...

Depends who you want, if a D should win it, it rather shouldn't be a flaming leftist like Sinema, but Cherny might be tougher to beat.

26, Male, R, NY-10


[ Parent ]
Went to law school with Cherny
Huge self-promoter and serial seeker of political office.

Lost for California Assembly in 2002. Moved to Arizona after law school, lost for Treasurer in 2010. Became party chair in 2011, resigned in January to run for this seat.

Of course, these qualities (incessant self-promotion and tenacity in the face of repeated defeat) are generally positive ones when seeking public office.

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)


[ Parent ]
Was
The assembly race also a R area? Losing in R areas isn't that bad. This district is D leaning.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Lost the primary to another Dem
Both were former staffers to the outgoing incumbent --

http://www.smartvoter.org/2002...

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)


[ Parent ]
More on NY congressional redistricting
More Proof That The Courts Will Draw The Map In NY
Sounds like Shelly seriously wants to punt.  

[ Parent ]
Silver blames Republicans?
That's a good story, but no Republican district is anywhere near these. They don't control the majority of districts in Manhattan, the Bronx, Westchester, and Rockland. You'd have to connect those districts with Heyworth's in some bacon strip way.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Common Cause map
They each want a district, even though the state loses two. Common Cause drew:

1. 4 Long Island districts, eliminating Ackerman or McCarthy.
2. A Bronx-Queens Hispanic district, which I don't think would be Dominican. I'm not sure who'd run here and if it'd satisfy the Hispanic demand.
3. 2 Brooklyn and 1 Queens Black district. Meeks. Clarke. Towns.
4. A Democratic district with the Westside and South Brooklyn. Nadler.
5. A district entirely in Queens that'd be 37% Asian VAP. Crowley?
6. A district with the Eastside and some of Queens. Maloney.
7. A Brooklyn-Queens-Manhattan district with a 40% Hispanic VAP. Velazquez.
8. Staten Island-Brooklyn. Grimm.
9. West Harlem-Washington Heights for Serrano.
10. A Harlem-South Bronx district that'd be 36.5% Black VAP and 52.1% Hispanic VAP. While this district is surely going Hispanic eventually, it might be the best Rangel can do.
11. A Westchester-Bronx district. Engel.
12. A Westchester-Rockland district combining Heyworth and Lowey.

Common Cause eliminates Turner, Ackerman, and combines Heyworth and Lowey in a 58% Obama seat. The net is that Republicans would likely lose 2 seats and the Democrats none. Although, some creativity could make a Heyworth-Lowey seat more fair.

They could use a variation of this map, albeit with Hayworth and Lowey in a fair fight.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
CA-16
Patterson officially out. http://www.fresnobee.com/2012/...

R - MD-7

AZ-4
Stick a fork in Babeu. http://www.abc15.com/dpp/news/...

Just as damaging or even more damaging new stuff.
Paul Gosar is only lucky man.

26, Male, R, NY-10


Babeu
Gags This is absolutely sickening.

Several students we spoke with say they also knew a secret about Babeu.
It was a secret that Babeau's older sister said she discovered one day after visiting his home.
Lucy Babeu told the ABC15 Investigators she confronted her brother after finding a student from DeSisto school living with Babeu.
"I said what is this student from Desisto doing here? He says, 'Lucy, he's my boyfriend. I love him'."
Lucy Babeu told us her brother was having a relationship with the male student.  
"I said Paul get a hold of yourself here," said Lucy. "You were his teacher! You were his Executive Director! You can't do this."
ABC15 is not identifying the former student. He has not responded to our interview requests.
At the time, he was 17 which is the legal age of consent in Massachusetts.
"He was of age. He would be what we considered a high school senior," said Nielsen.
Holli says she knew the student personally.
"It was widely known but not discussed. People were aware of it," said Nielsen. "It was kind of swept under the rug."


From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
The Steve Plan for a resurgent GOP: Fewer Steve Kings, more Steve Litzows


[ Parent ]
Way to ruin a promising political career
I really liked him and thought he had a great future in the party. Good thing this stuff is coming out now and not after the primary.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, Well the guy has issues
Shouldn't be running for Congress in the first place. Good for everyone.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
I think he ruined a little more than that...


Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1



[ Parent ]
Yep
I never got a good feeling about him... I'm glad that Gosar will get to serve a second term. I like having another doctor (well, dentist) in the House and he's a bright guy. He just had some staffing issues... he's only a freshman, I'm willing to cut him some slack for that.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
The Steve Plan for a resurgent GOP: Fewer Steve Kings, more Steve Litzows


[ Parent ]
If the background in the FBI is true
Then this isn't really bad, but it still doesn't look good. It will look bad in an ad even though it was normal for him to do it. Read both pages.

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
It's Outrageous That The Court Basically Ordered Them To Draw 2 More Dem Districts (nt)


[ Parent ]
PA-AG
Former (1980s) Congressman and Auditor General Don Bailey (D-Westmoreland County) is running for AG and made the ballot. http://www.politicspa.com/thir...

R - MD-7

Fascinating
This should help Patrick Murphy who was running into a lot of problems out west as the western PA and NEPA Democrats are backing Kane against Murphy.  Even the Philly Dems are trying to undermine Murphy.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Search




Advanced Search


(C) RedRacingHorses
Powered by: SoapBlox