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Political Roundup for February 29th, 2012

by: James_Nola

Wed Feb 29, 2012 at 08:00:00 AM EST


Happy Leap Day! My theory is that since this is a bonus day, it should be a day off of work. Too bad no one cares about my theories :(

President

Romney: Rep. Dave Reichert endorsed Romney ahead of Washington's Saturday caucuses.

Ohio Primary: The University of Cincinnati Ohio Poll shows Santorum leading Romney, Gingrich, and Paul 37-26-16-11. Of course, this was before Mitt's big wins yesterday. Ohio is shaping up to be the most expensive and competitive Super Tuesday race.

More Ohio Primary: Need evidence that Ohio is going to be the most competitive and expensive Super Tuesday primary? Nearly $5 million has already been spent there.

Americans Elect: Former Oklahoma Governor and Senator David Boren has endorsed Americans Elect. Which brings me to an interesting thought: Snowe/Nelson??

Senate

ME-Sen: Yesterday's big news, other than Mitt's wins and the TX Plans, was Olympia Snowe's surprise retirement. I mentioned a few possible candidates yesterday, but now the press is beginning to mention possible Republican candidates, and they include:
2002 Gubernatorial Nominee and former Ambassador to Costa Rica Peter Cianchette
2010 Gubernatorial Candidate and former Susan Collins CoS Steve Abbott
Treasurer Bruce Poliquin
Attorney General Bill Schneider
Senate President and ME-02 candidate Kevin Raye
Former Gov. Jock McKernan (Snowe's husband)
Secretary of State and 2008 ME-01 nominee Charlie Summers
Its important to note that the Treasurer, AG, and SoS are not elected like in most states, they are appointed by the Legislature. Raye is the only one on the record as considering the race. Rep. Chellie Pingree (D) has also said she is considering it.

There is one person who catches the eye here, as someone who would likely make this race Lean or probably even Likely R, and that is former Defense Secretary Bill Cohen, Susan Collin's predecessor. He is only 71, and, if you think he should run, or would at least like to see him consider it, contact him here: wcohen[at]cohengroup[dot]net
I did, as did RightReformer

House

MA-04: Joseph Kennedy has a primary on his hands, in the form of perennial candidate and law professor Jules Levine, 4th cousin of our very own Left Coast Libertarian. He is running on an OWS platform.

NC-07: Some of us started to get excited when Rep. Mike McIntrye (D) hadn't filed for re-election with 4 days left, but he has now filed to run.

CA-08: Former Republican Assemblyman Anthony Adams is running as an Independent. Adams voted for the 2009 tax raises.

Other

Virginia Redistricting: A Richmond Circuit Court has dismissed a lawsuit against the Congressional redistricting plan that said redistricting should have been completed in 2011, and therefore the map should be thrown out.  

James_Nola :: Political Roundup for February 29th, 2012
Tags: (All Tags)
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MI-3
Has shown Rep. Justin Amash how much he's out of touch with his district.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

MI HD-51
We should be pretty confident here. We probably would have won even without the primary being on the same day.
Why? About 20,000 voted yesterday, about 23,000 voted in the recall. Rep.-elect Joe Graves won by over 2,000 votes, so Steve Losey would have had to win those extra 3,000 voters by about 85% to win had there been equal turnout. Very unlikely, and therefore we should be happy. We can reasonably assume that almost all that voted in the recall voted again. It was Paul Scott being a crook, not the Republican party.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

Good
Scott was recalled because he is a bad person.  Being a baby daddy then running around the state acting like a jerk expecting everyone to vote for him because he is black for Secretary of State, he deserved it.

The fact nobody cared that he was replaced by another Republican says a lot about the situation.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
Graves
I actually expected Graves to do better than 53% since Paul Scott was able to 53% in 2008 and 60% in 2010.      

[ Parent ]
Incumbent vs. open seat


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
open seat
It was an open seat in 2008, a strongly Democratic year yet the Republican got 53%.  This year, during an election when Republican voters outnumbered Dems and in a lean Republican district, I expected a higher percentage for the Republican candidate.  But it doesn't matter...I'm happy to have Scott gone.      

[ Parent ]
Um
First D that I see is happy to have him replaced with another R. Instead of waiting out till November 2012 and beating Scott (pretty likely) and get closer to flipping the chamber, they elected a strong Republican that will likely be reelected.
I am happy to see him gone. The MEA helped Rs by tossing him.
On the margin, there was a third candidate now and even though it was a greenie it doesn't always translate into D votes. And numbers now in MI are pretty close to 2008, so I don't get your point. Who says Rs turned out and Ds not? It was a high profile local race which many times has higher turnout than primaries.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Not happy
I'm not happy he was replaced with a Republican.  I just really disliked Scott.  Of course it was bad strategy....just choosing to look at a situation I had no control over from a "glass half full" perspective.

Who says Rs turned out and Ds not?

You really think having a close presidential primary didn't get more Republicans to polls than Democrats?    


[ Parent ]
This race
Might have been more high profile locally.
Wasn't there hundreds of thousands of dollars spent here locally in a small district?

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
And I thought
That Ds were fired up because of Snyder.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Snyder
Many voters, not just Dems, are unhappy with Snyder.  This was an election mainly focused on the GOP primary and this is a lean GOP district.  I don't think there was much driving Dem voters to the polls.  


[ Parent ]
Um, ok
Nice spin after defeat.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Not spin
The recall and election wasn't about Snyder.  It was about Paul Scott and his replacement.  

[ Parent ]
Amazing stat from Q NJ poll
Governor Christie at 55/38 approval, is almost overwater with union households at 44/48! 58/37 approval among public school parents! 27% of Ds approve, positive approval among every income bracket, only 33/55 among urbanites. Big gender gap, +30 approval among men, +5 among women.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/inst...

Obama up 10 over Mitt, 6 with Christie as veep.
Menendez pretty safe.

25, Male, R, NY-10


I find the result a little surprising
Even though I think Chris Christie is the best thing to happen to NJ in a long long time, it's the volume and the tone of his opposition that makes it seem like there is a huge %age that despises him.  Maybe it's the crowd that we hang with (a good number of teacher/cops) that makes me think this...I don't know.

Either way, if these numbers are true, then this really illustrates a silent majority electorate.

And I am convinced that Chris Christie is the ONLY Republican that could ever be this sucessful in a state like NJ.

36, Republican, NJ-11  


[ Parent ]
When was the last time
You saw Lakewood holding a rally for Christie? Doesn't mean that he doesn't have 80% approval there.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Very true
But I would hope his approval down there is around 85% to 90%.  I should go and look up the 2009 vote in Lakewood.  Ocean County came in bigger for Christie than Essex did for Corzine and Monmouth came in bigger for Christie than Hudson did for Corzine.  That was really shocking.

36, Republican, NJ-11  

[ Parent ]
For what it's worth
Lakewood was 64/36 of the two party vote
Ocean County was 70/30.

36, Republican, NJ-11  

[ Parent ]
That was only
Because the "Vaad" (local political machine) endorsed Corzine as the incumbent. He was pretty good for the schools there.
Expect Christie to get 75-80% next time.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
teachers and cops
were very vocal from the outset. I find them much less so now. Either they are coming around or they just realize that nobody sympathizes with them except other teachers and cops.

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!


[ Parent ]
Don't know
The one teacher friend will only refer to Christie as "Gov. Fat Ba$tard" which I think is really childish and does nothing for her side.  Her cop husband just goes D because that's where the money is and he also hates Christie.  Our other teacher/private sector friend-couple seethes with hatred because Christie "denigrates teachers when we have THE BEST public education system in the country." (Has he heard of Newark?).  And yet another law enforcement friend who is actually right of center (McCain voter)hates Christie becuase "he's a bully."

36, Republican, NJ-11  

[ Parent ]
I don't find 55/38 approval
surprising at all. I hear more positive than negative comments about Christie and I'm in Hudson county!

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!


[ Parent ]
it's a silent majority thing for sure
I don't talk about politics much at work, but when I used to work and live in NJ even the liberal people said they generally agreed with him.

Of course that was in suburban NJ-03.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
He is a great communicator
He comes across as a straight shooter, and explains and defends his policies better than any politician I can think of. Nobody has been able to refute his basic points with any degree of success.

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!


[ Parent ]
Rasmussen WI recall poll
54% would vote for Governor Walker. 52/46 approval.
I need to see the partisan sample because yesterday's senate numbers seemed out of whack. Anyone here is subscribed to see the crosstabs?
http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

25, Male, R, NY-10

How I wish I still trust Rasmussen


[ Parent ]
I Actually Believe This Result More Than PPP's (nt)


[ Parent ]
Really?
You trust a poll where almost 30% don't have an opinion on a high profile governor like Walker with no internals over PPPs?  I'll have to go the other way, but I'd imagine with Rasmussen polling again we're going to fall into the old PPP Vs. Rasmussen camps and fast.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Where do you see
30% with no opinion? I see 52/46 approval.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
You are quick!
I thought I typed fast.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Whoops
Nevermind that, for some reason I thought Rasmussen had 52/26 I apparently need better glasses.

So yea It's not THAT different then, just more positive for Walker.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
Morning Thoughts
Leap Day: Just a side note, but my great-grandfather Tuley was born on February 29th.

AmericansElect: No, please.

ME-Sen: Bill Cohen would be great, but I somehow doubt that he runs. Even though they aren't directly elected, I think that one of the statewide officers, probably the AG, would be our best choice, modeling the strategy after Kelly Ayotte's big win in 2010.

NC-07: I think that another retirement was just too much to ask for, especially one by an entrenched incumbent who likely thinks that he'll heavily overperformer Obama (he should overperform, but we don't know by how much). Has everyone written off Larry Kissel? I think that he'll lose, but I'm a bit worried that we're being somewhat overconfident in NC-08.

CA-08: If this guy and an actual Republican make it to the general, I'll be very disappointed, because that likely means an 'Independent' (translation: RINO) will win a heavily Republican seat. I could be wrong, and I hope I am.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college), MS-03 (weekend)


CA-8
In a safe R seat, people just vote for the R line. Being an indie is not going to make many Rs and those who vote for Rs to vote for an indie.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Anyone Who Thinks Anthony Adams Is Going To Be a Factor In CA-08...
...Doesn't understand CA politics. Adams is basically a pariah on the GOP side (incidentally, so is Maldonado, basically, which is why I'm not to sanguine on his chances...). Meanwhile, CA Democrats vote for CA Democrats.

CA-08 will runoff to generic R vs. generic D - Adams won't even be a factor IMO.  


[ Parent ]
I didn't realize he was one of "them"
No wonder Adams is running as an independent. If you push that he was one of the Republicans who voted for the tax increase in 2009 his Republican support will pretty much dry up. There are 6 Republicans currently in the field. There's a county supervisor, an assemblymen, a mayor, and two city council members.

San Bernardino County Supervisor Brad Mitzelfelt and State Assemblyman Paul Cook should be the best candidates. Neither got in until Jerry Lewis announced he wasn't running. So they didn't report fundraising by 12/31/11.

This could go the way of the CA-36 special and the cream will rise to the top as Craig Huey did. Or they could split the Republican vote, with no one getting more than 15%. It's conceivable that Jackie Conaway and Adams could split enough Democrats and independents to beat that and advance to November.

This has been a concern of mine for months. It'd be nice to get candidates to drop out, but sometimes that doesn't work. The Republicans in the CA-36 were all for someone dropping out, just not themselves.

I don't see how Adams wins in November against a Republican. That candidate would just need enough money to get Adams' vote out there.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Liberatore in for CA-8
http://www.vvdailypress.com/ne...

Liberatore is a self-funder who challenged Gary Miller in 2010 and got a significant number of votes. He lives 70 miles from the district, but it might as well be 700, as La Mirada has little in common with the district. Still, he makes it even dicier.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Liberatore
Met him in person a couple times, really nice guy, but has no place in the 8th, he should have stayed in our hometown and gone against Sanchez, it would do the party much better (although to be fair, I have yet to meet Robles and Campos who are already candidates for CA-38)

20-Cubano, R, CA-38
City Commissioner, College Republican Club President


[ Parent ]
NC-8
Kissel would have lost those lines in 2010 by a fair margin if I remember. McIntyre would have lost too, but by a smaller margin.

Shuler was the one to worry about.  


[ Parent ]
NY SD-27
Most influential district newspaper with scathing front-page op-ed against Fidler today.
See here: http://www.politicker.com/2012...
and the newspaper in print here: http://hamodia.com/digitaledit...

25, Male, R, NY-10

Reading it now
It's more like an editorial by the editor than an op-ed...

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Cohen
I sent him a letter as well.

27, IL-7, Fiscal Conservative

Big Night for Mitt
as he sweeps Wyoming, Michigan and AZ!!!

The VA news is super good as the map is lining up as a sweet 8-3 deal.

Yes we gave up on VA11 but preserving VA10 and three other seats is  a great deal.


Please
Someone dig up for me the ruling.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
I will link if I see
it but the press reports detail that the suit was dismissed.  Even the US Supreme court will it declines to take a case can be very "brief" in declining to hear a case.  The judge apparently heard from both sides as to whether the legal matter was worth taking to a trial and dismissed the suit as not having enough basis to go forward.  Its apparently not a legal ruling on the merits of the case but rather the suit does not have enough merit to precede?


[ Parent ]
state issue
USSC has no say.

The federal case was dismissed weeks ago; the state case yesterday.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
mixed turnout
Michigan up 15% from 2008 (869k to 999k)
Arizona down 15% (541k to 459k)

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!


Alleged final numbers from MIRS
Congressional District Vote Breakdown (according to the Michigan Republican Party).

1st: Romney, 32,252. Santorum*, 32,325.
2nd: Romney, 29,912. Santorum*, 39,900.
3rd: Romney, 31,999. Santorum*, 33,491.
4th: Romney, 27,117. Santorum*, 29,528.
5th: Romney* 21,691. Santorum, 20,837.

6th: Romney, 26,738. Santorum*, 31,126.
7th: Romney, 28,925. Santorum*, 30,133.
8th: Romney*, 32,930. Santorum, 25,234.
9th: Romney* 24,060. Santorum, 17,221.
10th: Romney*, 31,319. Santorum, 29,278.

11th: Romney*, 41,733. Santorum, 24,577.
12th: Romney*, 19,623. Santorum, 17,675.
13th: Romney, 7,946. Santorum* 9,481.
14th: Romney*, 18,157. Santorum, 10,844


[ Parent ]
Hoe come
1 AA majority district had much higher turnout than the other?
I Grosse Pointe in 14?

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Difference

The 14th District has the Grosse Pointes as well as West Bloomfield and Farmington Hills, each of which have a fair number of Republicans.  

The 13th District doesn't have a single municipality that Republicans generally come within ten points of carrying.


[ Parent ]
The answer
One was hotly contested, one was not. That is all.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Arizona 2008
turnout was probably inflated due to McCain.

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!


[ Parent ]
Could also be


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
also the winner take all nature of Arizona's primary hurt
There was no real incentive for Romney to "try to run up the score" in Arizona after it was clear he was already going to win.

Michigan by contrast had Romney & Santorum trying to turn out the vote not only state wide, but in several competitive districts.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
Dreier retiring
As expected.

25, Male, R, NY-10

Just announced on House floor


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Media:
"This greatly improves D chances of taking the house".... Lol
Was CW for a while.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Everything "greatly improves D chances of taking the house"
They say that every time, no matter what the development is - it's their mantra.

You could certainly never tell that those guys are all closet D's, right?...  


[ Parent ]
Crickets . . .
"Texas redistricting decision greatly improves R chances of holding the House"

More Crickets . . .


[ Parent ]
How many more retirements left in the pipeline?
I'm guessing less than 3, probably all fairly surprising.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Filing Deadlines
By Friday, I think 12 will have passed. I think there's another 16 between March 2 and April 2. As we've seen sometimes a rep will decide to retire close to the filing deadline, when they have to make a hard decision. So there could still be a few. There's only 1 state left where they might retire due to redistricting, however.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Here's a crazy one I just thought of
Anyone else think Kay Granger might retire? She's getting up there in years and I think TPTB might try and push her out to get Roger Williams a seat. How's her fundraising/warchest picture?

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Rothenberg
Moves MO-SEN to tilt R. http://rothenbergpoliticalrepo...

25, Male, R, NY-10

Mistake
This is a pure toss up.  If Republicans had a solid nominee I would agree with Tilt R, but Clare will have a big head start and a huge money advantage.  If Nebraska somewhat stays on the table and Maine is now on the table, how much can Crossroads really spend here?

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
His point is
State leans R, incumbent in low 40s or high 30s (?), no Sharron Angle on the horizon, so it tilts R.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Rothenberg's ratings most Democratic
His ratings are more Democratic than Cook, Sabato, Roll Call, or RCP. So Stu writing this means he must really see something.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Eh, I think I slightly side with Rothenberg
If the GOP bench were superior, McCaskill, whose president will struggle to break 45 percent atop the ticket, would be in dire straits. Even so, I think Brunner is a competent, OK candidate and should prove capable of at least a modest win.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
FL Supreme Court Hearing
I am now thinking that the state House map would be approved by the court. Even one of the most liberal justices, Barbara Pariente, seems to like how the state House has drawn its map.

"I really appreciate the way the House went about the drawing of this map,'' Pariente said. "I think there is in the brief the recognition to the importance of these standards and actually adhereing to the tier two standards."

I think the state Senate map is in trouble. You just have to look at the 2 westernmost districts in the Panhandle to know one of the map's problems.

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/...


What's The Likely Breakdown of the FL State House Under The New Map? (nt)


[ Parent ]
Breakdown of FL State House
Likely-to-Safe R (R+6 and above):  53

Lean R (R+3 to R+5):                    17

Tossup (D+2 to R+2):                    14

Lean D (D+3 to D+5):                      2

Likely-to-Safe D (D+6 and above):  34


[ Parent ]
The issue in the
state senate maps IMO will affect the partisan nature of many if any seats.  Clearly the smaller the number of seats there are the question of county/city splits and compactness are far fewer.  

I think you can question a few of the Florida districts on compactness or county splits but IMO they have limited political impact.  If Barbara P thinks she makes seats a bit more compact, which is a joke idea, then that little impact.

In the CD map all the action IMO relates to minority seats.  Unless you start to dismantle minority seats there is no real impact IMO on the CD map.  


[ Parent ]
Michaud running for ME-SEN
ME-02
Move that race to toss up. :D

[ Parent ]
What if Raye also runs for the Senate?
Who would be our candidate here?

[ Parent ]
Ugh
Let Raye stay. We need to build our bench in Maine and a Republican Congressman from ME-02 would be a fantastic start.

[ Parent ]
E-Mailed Raye's Campaign
Hopefully he can finish what he started ten years ago...

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
So this will lock the seat for the Dems?


[ Parent ]
He has to win a primary first
Which will not be easy for him. In the General yes he would make it Likely D, though he does have his closet issues.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Never heard that one.


[ Parent ]
Nor I
Although it wouldn't hurt him one iota in Maine.

[ Parent ]
Maybe
It's just a rumor that pops up for a lot of single Congresscritters?

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Probably


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Yep
Susan Collins dealt with it for years. She's getting married (for the first time) soon though.

[ Parent ]
You think that would be an issue?
I've never heard those rumors about Michaud before today anyways.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Filing deadline might be extended
[ Parent ]
Good thing we have a GOP governor and legislature here
I really hope that they extend the filing deadline.  

[ Parent ]
Don't like the precedent at all
And can easily see it being used against us in the future, particularly if strong Dem candidates in blue states retire or are stricken from the ballot.  

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)

[ Parent ]
Different
It's extending the deadline, 2 weeks before the deadline. Not after the deadline.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Right
I realize that. It's still changing the rules in the middle of the game, and anything that can be manipulated can some day work against us.  

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)

[ Parent ]
Another member of the Blue Dog Caucus
nt

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Question
How do you pronounce his name?

I know of three ways of spelling "Michau(d/x)" and about 10 ways of pronouncing it.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
Rep. Mike Michaud (D-Maine): MISH-oh
nt

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Shamlet/Michaud
Hear him say it himself.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

it's Mish-ow. Not mi-show.


[ Parent ]
If the ME GOP hires Pete Hoekstra's ad team
it can be Mike Me-Spend......

But that's probably a really bad idea...


[ Parent ]
Thanks for the clarification
I think I'd always been pronouncing it mi-show. Those French names often present some difficulty-it took me awhile before I knew how to pronounce Melancon correctly.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
And they twist the French accent and pronunciation!
Je Suis Un Quebecois.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
And that's one I've never heard before!
I've heard:

Mish-OW
Mish-OH
MEE-show
MEE-shaw
m'SHAW

and a few others.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
MISH-oh
Sorry, I meant MISH-oh, not MISH-ow.

[ Parent ]
Damn it. Mi-SHOH
Not MISH-oh

[ Parent ]
TX Dems
demand judicial activism from DC Court, hoping that said activism will upend the interim maps: http://txredistricting.org/pos...

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

Here they go again
I guess they don't even realize that the Hispanic portion of Doggett's current district was used to create a new Hispanic-majority seat in Bexar-Travis.  

[ Parent ]
Okay . . explain this to me as if I was a three-year-old . . .
Even if the DC Court rules in favor of the plaintiffs, the state of Texas will appeal to the Supreme Court, no?  

And a decision by the Supreme Court will likely not be forthcoming until the Fall, no?

So, the San Antonio Ct. maps would be used for the 2012 elections, pending the adjudication of that appeal, no?

Wasn't that the purpose of the interim maps in the first place?  

So what are the plaintiff/intervenors trying to achieve here?  If they win in the DC Court, I can't imagine it will result in the overturning of the interim maps -- at least until the state's appeal is adjudicated, no?  


[ Parent ]
its all sour grapes
Yep, any DC Court decision is certain to be appealed and not go into effect until 2014.

At that point, its probably moot as the state will pass new legislative maps in 2013.

They are just trying to push the San Antonio Court to ignore the SCOTUS.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
Obama/Biden 2012
I notice Obama is no longer "protecting" his daughters/family, as I've been bombarded today with banner ads that have the four Obamas smiling together under the headline "Help The Obamas stand up for Working Americans."  I just thought it was a little odd, but maybe not.

NY Congressional redistricting
Even more likely that it's headed to court. http://www.nydailynews.com/blo...

25, Male, R, NY-10

Good
I'm looking forward to a court map in NY.

[ Parent ]
If you would know that the special master is a Democrat
are you still looking forward to a court map?  

[ Parent ]
Yes. I am.
The special master here has done fine work in states other than Connecticut.(where he was ordered to draw a Democratic map)

[ Parent ]
Special Master
IIRC, she is a magistrate judge and a registered Democrat.  

[ Parent ]
Hmm
I thought the special master was Nathaniel Persily, Professor of Law at Columbia University.

[ Parent ]
Special master v. commission
Commissioners are usually partisan and sometimes act in a partisan way on a non-partisan panel. Judges take the responsibility of being non-partisan more seriously, since it's part of the job. That doesn't mean they won't be partisan, just that they're less likely.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
But
The panel of judges is at least nominally 2-1 R.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Yeah, but...
they appointed a Dem magistrate judge as the special master.  

[ Parent ]
Magistrate Judge Roanne Mann is the special master
[ Parent ]
Judge has the final say
They tell the special master what to do.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Court drawn map
would either screw Republicans or white Dems.  

[ Parent ]
Probably Both (nt)


[ Parent ]
Court asking
For anyone to submit maps. https://www.nyed.uscourts.gov/...

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Do you know when the deadline is?
I'm wondering if I should stay up late tonight to get mine tweaked properly; I'm working on getting an Asian opportunity seat in Queens and that's more difficult than I thought.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
I don't know
I don't think that there is a deadline. Tomorrow is definitely not too late.
Rule #1: I have to be liberated and put into Turner's district.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Deadline is this Friday March 2nd
[ Parent ]
I'm waiting to see
What plans Rs and Ds will file in court.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
I didn't know
That the TX interim maps still have to be precleared. That's what Li is saying. Is it true?

25, Male, R, NY-10

I think not
A map drawn by a federal court doesn't have to be pre-cleared anymore.  

[ Parent ]
Disingenuous
The precinct splits, not the districts themselves have to be precleared. From what I read, I don't believe that the 1991 interim House plan, which closely mirrored the state's settlement offer had to be precleared. Since that was also a policy position of the state, I'm just going have to say that Li is completely wrong on that assertion.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
the DOJ is offering expedited preclearance
Of course, the San Antonio court might just give an order to waive preclearance on the interim maps.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
WI president
Same Rasmussen poll has Obama +5. http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

25, Male, R, NY-10

Bob Kerrey registers to vote in Neb
at his sisters house, lol. Has 2 days to announce.
http://hotlineoncall.nationalj...

SC1-Charleston

Lol
I mean, he's doing everything to move the race to safe R from likely R even with him.
What other blunders can he offer to make?

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
SUSA KS
Obama and Brownback unpopular. http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

The crosstabs on the Brownback numbers seem very weird.  

25, Male, R, NY-10


I don't buy this at all
Brownback with 34% approval? Come on. Keep in mind this was the same pollster that showed Obama competitive or actually leading in Kansas a few months ago.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
Tommy Thompson's first ad
http://www.youtube.com/watch?f...

Pretty good.

25, Male, R, NY-10


ME-SEN
Looking over the D blogosphere, I didn't know that Michaud is that loathed on the left.

25, Male, R, NY-10

Why? Because he's a moderate?


[ Parent ]
Yup


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Michaud is pro life
and has been hard on tree lovers.  The tree lovers in Maine want to lock up all the trees while Michaud represents a bunch of folks who chop down trees and process them into things to sell.  

10% Naral rating.


[ Parent ]
I'd be happy
I'd prefer someone like Allen simply because we wouldn't have to worry about the house seat, but I'd support Michaud.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
i would be okay
With whomever is the strongest candidate. My gut tells me that may indeed be Michaud. Remember, this is a freebee seat, given the fact no one considered it even remotely competative 48 hours ago

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Mishaud Lifetime ACU 13
After 8 years. That's alot more liberal/moderate than it is conservative.
http://www.conservative.org/ra...

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Better than Pingree
Also, keep in mind that ACU scores seem to be higher for Senators.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, he is as moderate
as your going to get.  

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Michaud
He's a party-line vote who will occasionally jump ship on social issues (abortion, 2nd Amendment, etc.) Not a true moderate, but not bad for the northeast. He'd be with us more than Pingree would, but Pingree would be easier to beat.

[ Parent ]
good
Maybe he'll make some moderate statements that cause the left to faint and want to support a Strong indy, and we could have LePage's win 2.0  

[ Parent ]
I saw that race as a bit of a makeup for some of the ones we screwed up
The funny thing was that Mitchell (the Dem) and Cutler (the Indy) were both pretty mainstream liberals. Cutler just got traction because Mitchell was an awful candidate, sort of the Martha Coakley of Maine.

[ Parent ]
except
Inexplicably, LePage basically led wire to wire.  He was up in every public poll but one.  It's not like Mitchell "blew" anything, she never had good numbers...

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...


[ Parent ]
In fact
LePage almost blew it. He had huge leads and in the mid to high 40s, but he blew it by opening his mouth.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Lets be clear
he's only a moderate in the KOS world.

He is against partial birth abortion but that's a once in a decade vote.  That does not show in ratings.  He voted for HC.

I think Michaud votes against drilling in ANWR but he is anxious to keep timberlands in Maine open. That does not show up in ACU votes.  

Michaud is mostly a moderate compared to the other D congressman because of a few social issues and environment issues.  Yes he is a blue dog but he is not like Boren or Shuler or Gene Taylor.  He is more of a show blue dog then a real blue dog.

Here's the story on Maine primary.  Mark it down and I do not want to be arrogant when I say this.

1st on the D side geography will be huge.  The northern area of the state feels a bit put upon by the rest of the state.  Look at Collins votes in 2008 from Michaud land.  Regional factors are huge.  Yes the french and catholic heritage from the rural northern areas impacts as well.  Ironically alot of the old Yankees are now ultra liberals and they are one part of the D party (mostly in the south) and the blue collar ethnics are another big part.  They are mostly out country.

2nd if the far liberal vote is split Michaud gets the nomination.  One on one against Former speaker now US rep gal he loses.  The primary vote IMO is more intense down south and in larger cities.  Of course the Baldacci type D ususally does better in GEs then the Allen types.  

Its a bit of stretch to say blue collar union types versus graduate school & public union types but its not far from that.  


[ Parent ]
Told People
He will have primary trouble.

Portland controls the statewide Democratic primary, but Portland candidates struggle statewide. Hence the source of almost all of the Democrats' problems in the state over the last two decades.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
In far fewer words
then I you made your point. I agree 100%.  Michaud is alot like Casey in PA.  An imprefect primary candidate but one who would be tough to beat in a GE.  

[ Parent ]
Need to hope for a Pingree
type liberal, and even then its Lean D. Michaud may be Likely D.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
I'd like to see Pingree vs. Summers round 2
Summers is a really interesting guy, and he overperformed big time by getting 45% against Pingree in 2008. He's now SoS, appointed by the legislature (like Kelly Ayotte was). There's a coalition for him out there: 42-45% in ME-01, and 60% in ME-02.

[ Parent ]
Yeah
If Summers can get his 45% in Pingree's district again, he would likely swamp her in ME-02. She has very little appeal there.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
New Rothenberg House Ratings
NY-Sen
Joe Carvin, a wealthy hedge-fund manager and the Rye Town supervisor in Westchester County (R) running for Gillibrand's seat. Could be our strongest candidate; he's willing to drop $1M+. http://www.politicker.com/2012...

R - MD-7

Money down the drain
Just tell me which drain.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Do you think he cares?
Hedgies like Calvin pull down $1 million a week in a good year

[ Parent ]
How Many
Best candidate yet to face Gillibrand will pop up?

I will say a self funder is likely the best bet, you don't want to hurt someone like Harry Wilson's long term potential with a 20 plus point loss here.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
Agree
This guy's a self-funder with some political experience and seems to have more money than Maragos. Perfect for what we want to do in this race (beat up Gillibrand without expending too many party resources.)

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
All three candidates are potential self-funders
Long is worth millions and Maragos has, should he garner the nomination, committed to dumping $5 million of his own into the race.

I must say, however, I'm pretty convinced Long will win this one. Mike Long (no relation), the Conservative Party chairman, is very close with her and could, just as he did with DioGuardi, force the GOP's hand by giving Long the Conservative line. Maragos, much like Bruce Blakeman, seems like a purely regional candidate - well-liked on Long Island, a flop everywhere else.

At this rate, I actually think more candidates may wind up entering.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
Rothernberg is an idiot
Rating both IL-08 and IL-11 as "leans D" proves that he's unwilling to be bold in his ratings and it proves he knows almost nothing. Joe Walsh is down by 20 in polling. That's bordering safe D. I'm hearing Schilling is somewhat competitive but down. I'm hearing Dold is quite competitive. Is Rothenberg out of his mind?

Fleabagging 3.0
Iowa style. http://blogs.desmoinesregister...
Do these people realize that there were elections?
I also don't understand why they have to do it if Ds have the senate.

25, Male, R, NY-10

Just wait
This is going to become the norm.
If fleabagging is legitimate for Ds in multiple states, Rs will learn and decide it's fair game when Ds are in the majority.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
NJ SUSA Poll
They have Christie at -1 approval which I think is the highest for them ever. They always had outlier numbers on Christie.
Their Obama, Menendez numbers look reasonable, both up nicely, however the approval for Lautenberg and Menendez do seem to have the same problem as their Christie numbers. artificially low.
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

25, Male, R, NY-10

Weird crosstab
Christie among Rs only 67/28 while he's 60/33 with Is. Not exactly believable numbers.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Yeah
Obviously there are some who disapprove, but I have never met a Republican who didn't love Christie in NY or NJ.  Seems very low.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Age breakdown
The age breakdown is scary... I also find it funny how he has 57/36 approval from men and 36/57 approval from women.

[ Parent ]
oh and Happy Leap Day everyone!
Hope you are wearing your Blue and Yellow.
Nothing that happens on Leap Day counts!  Real life is for March!

30 Rock?
Great episode.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
I wish
Jack Donaghy would run for something.  Not Alec Baldwin though...

[ Parent ]
Mitt +8 on Gallup
http://www.gallup.com/poll/ele...
Roller coaster...

25, Male, R, NY-10

Rothenberg Report on new Texas Map
Way to look at it
Farenthold's district should be counted a D seat, as a Democrat would reclaim the current district. So the 22-10 current map goes to 25-11. Canseco still has a 58% Bush seat, so he should hold it.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
So the new seats are 3D-1R
But the GOP flips TX-25, and TX-27 goes from light blue to safe R for Farenthold. Not a bad deal, although obviously I was hoping we could have saved TX-33.

[ Parent ]
I nearly linked
a KOS diary that  spelled out these exact points. I find nothing to argue with these points.

Its clearly 2-2 and IMO we keep CD23.  Will the race be tight.  You bet but not only does the GOP get that extra 1% but this map ditches Webb county and we see more of the SA area in it. Canseco's home area is preserved while rural hispanics that could be Gallegos's voters are out.  We seen over and over again not all hispanic voters are created equal.  They can be influenced to vote for a GOP candidate.  

So 2-2 and we likely keep the two seats (CD23 & CD27) we won in 2010.  Winning CD27 was dumb silly so yes locking it up for 10 years is fantastic.    


[ Parent ]
Interesting look at CA leanings
http://blogs.kqed.org/capitaln...

An anti-public union, market-loving moderate.

TN poll
From before MI, Obama very unpopular and trails all Rs among likely voters, Santorum with the biggest lead.
Santorum crushing Romney in the primary.
Corker popular.
Haslam very popular.
Legislature popular.
http://mtsusurveygroup.org/wp-...

25, Male, R, NY-10

Kerrey announced for NE-SEN


25, Male, R, NY-10

How cute!
This race stays at likely R.

[ Parent ]
Well
I'd say before Kerrey it was Safe R, but I guess thats just minor quibbling.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
My apologies to WaPo


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Kerrey in, race moves to Safe D
But in all seriousness, Likely R WITH the huge caveat that it puts Democrats in really good position if the GOP Primary gets really bloody and the nominee is battered (I think thats somewhat likely).  I'm happy to have him run.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
"Really good position"
Sure, if you call a 10% chance in that situation a "really good position."

[ Parent ]
Well
It's 10% right now, my point was that IF Republicans come out in rough shape out for the primary Kerrey could pounce on that likely with a lot of money and support.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Wouldn't make that much difference
Kerrey has a primary himself and major residency issues. With a weak R nominee, he's still a heavy underdog.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Agreed-and don't underestimate the problems he is causing
in Nebraska Democratic Party circles. I'd be surprised if he doesn't win the primary easily, but as I pointed out yesterday, not everybody is rushing to support him. National Committeeman Vince Powers said yesterday he is still supporting Hassebrook. Kerrey running is doing nothing to help build the party for the future, which they desperately need. Hassebrook will now be knocked out for the future as a statewide candidate. The party practically begged him to run in order to avoid having an Alvin Greene-like embarrassment as their nominee, and so after he gives up his current seat to run, Kerrey comes and stabs him in the back. They have somebody willing to take one for the team, and this is how they treat them? They have enough troubles finding anybody willing to run statewide-this will only complicate matters.
After Kerrey loses in November, the Nebraska Democratic Party will only be in worse shape than they are now.

Bottom line-Kerrey is viewed much differently now than he was in 1994(the last time his name was on the ballot), and Nebraska is a more Republican state now than 18 years ago. The way he ran campaigns in the 80s and 90s(charisma-war hero) won't work now.

42, R, NE-1.


[ Parent ]
Disagree
It's like 1% without a super bloody primary and 10% with one.

[ Parent ]
Kerrey website
http://www.kerrey2012.com/
Why is there a picture with him in uniform? Trying to remind people what he did?

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Kerrey
RRH should set up an attack site mocking him called "KerreyForNYC.com" or "KerryForManhattan.com"

[ Parent ]
Website
I like the 1996 style.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
They did manage to get a Nebraska phone number
I assume it rings at Kerrey's sister's house

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
The whole bit about registering at his sister's house
is funny. Never heard of a top flight candidate being in that sort of pridicament. That helps to write a great ad.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Coats?
Didn't he live in Virginia right before he announced?  Or am I confusing things?

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
He did and moved back
The difference obviously is the lean of the states. In a R state, you don't need extra problems.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
And
He never considered a run for office in NC.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
You're confusing things
It was North Carolina. lol.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Profile
It probably helps that Coats had a low profile and wasn't President of the New School and talked about running for New York City mayor.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
It's unlisted...


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Great ME news! Baldacci running
Lean R against him. http://www.pressherald.com/new...

25, Male, R, NY-10

ME-1, ME-2
State Sen. Majority Leader John Courtney, R-York County, has taken out papers for the 1st district House race, while the assistant majority leader, Sen. Debra Plowman, R-Hampden, has taken out nominating papers for the 2nd district House seat, which Michaud currently occupies.

State House Minority Leaders Emily Cain, D-Orono, took out nominating papers for the 2nd District House race, while former secretary of state Markham Gartley, also a Democrat, took out papers for the 1st District congressional seat.

Same link.

25, Male, R, NY-10


[ Parent ]
Sounds like Pingree is expected to run then
That could be quite the free for all in the D primary.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Lean R? I don't know
Depends on who the GOP can get.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
He was super duper unpopular


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
I remember
But the GOP bench isn't exactly overpowering and Maine is Lean D.

I think this weekends PPP poll will help us a lot.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
Because
ME is a lean D state, all but Baldacci would be ahead. he's toxic.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
29% approval
In latest PPP poll. Jensen just tweeted it.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Yikes
That's terribad.  Hopefully Pingree at least stays out and Michaud can beat Baldacci.  This could go from great news to wtf real fast.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
2008 New Mexico
I asked Steve Pearce why he ran in the Senate race, instead of staying in the House. He was in a knock down drag out fight with Heather Wilson in a Democratic year when he stood a good chance of not getting the nomination or winning the general. His answer was simple. "Senate seats don't become open in this state. If one does, you run for it."

If a Democrat wins the senate seat and Collins runs again for re-election, it'll be quite a while before another seat opens up.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
WHAT!?!?!
I hoped he would run, but didn't think he'd even consider it with his approvals. Hopefully there is a clown car primary that allows him to slip through.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
ME-Sen
Pingree and Baldacci(!?) pull papers. http://www.pressherald.com/new...

R - MD-7

Since I posted
The same link above 2 minutes ago, it was updated with Pingree. Clown car alert.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Stampede
Financial boom at Maine Secretary of State's office. I'd like to see our best 2 candidates run for the House seats. While the GOP needs the senate seat more, a good candidate might have a 25% chance. The House seats would be a 40-45% chance.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
With Baldacci
And a good R candidate, say Summers or Abbott, this is toss-up at worst, probably Tilt R.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Baldacci and generic R
I.E. not an incompetano, it's lean R at worst.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Looking like
Former State Rep. and Ambassador to Costa Rica Peter Cianchette will be our candidate. That is who LePage is pushing for, I'm seeing on the Twitters. He won 42% against Baldacci in 2002. He actually won Cumberland County (Portland), overperforming along the coast, while he lost much of rural ME to Baldacci. I wonder if he could overperform there again?  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Good point from someone on twitter
Both Michaud and Baldacci are from ME-2. This could potentially benefit Pingree.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
There Its a large
amount of support overlap between the two.



[ Parent ]
Not Terrible
But he hurt himself bad with a hamlet routine in 2006 and then 2010, as well as against Pingree in 2008.

Basically though, Pingree is almost certain to be the nominee. She has a base in the places that vote in Democratic primaries, she is facing divided opposition, and the left loves her.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
PPP: Baldwin up 1 on Thompson
Great
Thompson remains the favorite to win the Republican nomination. He's at 39% with Fitzgerald and Neumann both polling at 22%.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Very key for him
The split conservative vote.
PPP is the outlier here as the only poll to show Baldwin even up by a single point.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
My
we are really into posting the same thing today!

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
TT winning R primary with 40%
exactly what CW would indicate.

I think this poll is a little friendly to Baldwin though... I just can't see them splitting indies 50-50.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
I wonder in WI
Is it at all possible that Fitzgerald is running to ensure Thompson wins the nomination?

I haven't really seen a full fledged campaign from Fitzgerald yet.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
Interesting theory


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Another R
To get 1-2% in the primary just filed. http://gazettextra.com/weblogs...

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Huge difference between Rasmussen and PPP
PPP has Walker down and Thompson trailing, Rasmussen has Walker up and Thompson crushing Baldwin. One of them is definitely wrong. I'm thinking Rasmussen is closer to being right, although Thompson probably isn't up by as much as they say he is.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
Still a lot of time
Till August 14 though. Many things can and will change. Pretty late primary.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
UT-GOV Cooke In
I know he doesn't have a shot, but I do like seeing a legit nominee in all races regardless.  I like what I've read.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Is that Same Cooke?
Is so what a wonderful world it would be.  

[ Parent ]
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