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NY Congressional Redistricting - Special Master Map

by: Ryan_in_SEPA

Tue Mar 06, 2012 at 10:20:13 AM EST


Here is the link to the Special Master PDF of the maps.

NYC and Long Island over the fold

Ryan_in_SEPA :: NY Congressional Redistricting - Special Master Map

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The guys are working hard
on preview and results threads for today. Now the Special master pops up maps.  So inconsiderate.  

Carolyn McCarthy must be cracking a smile
Her entire old district is mostly intact.  I doubt Ackerman will challenge her, his house is now in the Queens to Smithtown district 3, along with most of his district.  If there's an Ackerman vs Israel primary....I'll die.

Social Democrat, NY-02

Thoughts
  • Harry Wilson could win Lowey's seat when open and hold it.
  • Even though Buerkle probably loses in 2012, her seat will remain somewhat competitive, at least enough for Maffei to have to spend money on it each cycle. A moderate R could becom entrenched if she runs elsewhere and a moderate R runs and wins this time.
  • Hochul is DOA
  • Gibson is going to have a tough seat to win and hold.
  • Owens can't be happy with this map. Doheny can win that seat.
  • Hayworth should be alright.
  • Long Island is beautiful. Steve Israel has to be kicking and screaming.
  • The Capitol Region seat is such a nice vote sink.
  • Reed's seat will have a "progressive" from Ithaca as the Democratic nominee in most years. In that case, he's super safe.


From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


Gibson got the relatively toughest draw
But he did keep 6 counties from his old seat; and didn't get drawn into Troy or Albany. He also is from Columbia County; the most Obama favoring part of the old 20th. He gained some rural Rs west of Albany from Tonko. And if we had to give one Upstate R the tough seat; better the guy who beat an incumbent by 10 in an R +2 then the alternatives with weaker track records  

[ Parent ]
I'm still working on the map
although the file has suddenly changed its modus operandi from mostly filling in one district at a time to randomly coloring in precincts all over the map and giving me about 150,000 people for most NYC districts. So it'll be a bit (maybe 20 minutes or so) before I can give you more results.


270 are you working on partisan numbers
for this map.  If not if you are anyone find them please post.

Buerkle needs about 54% in Onandaga to hold this seat.  That county is only 2/3's of seat.  This seat can be held IMO.  Owens had that nasty Saratoga area now.  He has to be having a fit over this map. Gibson can hold that seat.

CD22 was divided in exactly the way I would have done it.

Reed gets Tompkins
Hanna get Binghamton
Gibson gets the eastern part

Thats as good as it gets.  


[ Parent ]
Saratoga County has an unusally effective GOP county machine
Which now no longer having the old 20th to dominate will probably be turned against Owens  

[ Parent ]
It's making good progress. About 7.5 million people left
to allocate. I can tell you now that Grimm's seat is 50.9% McCain, while the Turner seat is of course obliterated.

I have some other NYC seats, but not sure what to tell you about them, they're not very interesting.  


[ Parent ]
So Grimm's district became more Dem?
Wow. He's screwed, what with all these messes he got himself into.  

[ Parent ]
It
only became more dem by 0.1% according to 270's number.  Grimm would be screwed, but Lanza, Donovan, or any other office holder will be ok.

Republican Medical Doc from New York, NY

[ Parent ]
Who's the winner
Who's the winner and losers for this map???

Winners and losers
Winners:
  • Richard Hanna. He gets a seat that is mostly his and that can help ward off a primary. He also gets a nominally McCain seat, I think.
  • Nan Hayworth. She could have been seriously screwed but she ends up with a fine seat
  • Harry Wilson. He gets a seat he could win in Westchester County after Lowey retires.
  • Ann Marie Buerkle. She gets a seat she could hold, but she can also run for NY-27.
  • Carolyn McCarthy. She's spared.
  • Brian Higgins. Silver wanted him gone and with this seat, he'll never have to campaign ever again, so long as Hochul doesn't challenge him in the primary.
  • Louise Slaughter. She now has a compact seat that is safe for her.
Losers:
  • Bob Turner. He's vaporized.
  • Steve Israel. His seat is now very competitive. Looks like he can't be a jackass anymore if he wants to last the decade. :) 
  • Chris Gibson. He now gets a very swingy seat and will have to work very hard to win it again and then to become entrenched.
  • Bil Owens. This seat is nominally more favorable for Doheny.
  • Kathy Hochul. She can't win NY-27 and she'd have an uphill battle against Higgins.


From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
McCarthy
is only spared if Israel doesn't primary her.  Hopefully he will and we can take his old seat.

Republican Medical Doc from New York, NY

[ Parent ]
Israel
There's really no overlap. She'd annihilate him.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
Israel has $ though
n/t

Walker/Martinez 2016

[ Parent ]
Steve Israel
If Israel is in trouble, he should get help from the DCCC.  I think he is close with the DCCC chair :)

33, R, IN-09

[ Parent ]
How many seats could the GOP win in 2012?


[ Parent ]
Eleven
NY-1, NY-2, NY-3, NY-11, NY-18, NY-19, NY-21, NY-22, NY-23, NY-24, NY-27. If Lowey retires, we could win her seat (NY-17) if Wilson ran, but it would lean D, if the Obama % I heard were accurate on that seat.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
NY-1
did it stay the same?

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!


[ Parent ]
Disclaimer
These are seats we CAN win, not necessarily WILL win.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
Additionally...
NY-04 is very competitive when open at 55% Obama.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
I am not sure why the GOP
would compromise on this map.


In a package deal with their senate map
With Cuomo, they will on a fours.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
If I
were the GOP, I'd only compromise if the dems would draw a Rochester to Cuse earmuffs district.  That would give Slaughter and Burkle each safe districts.  Otherwise, screw the compromise.

Republican Medical Doc from New York, NY

[ Parent ]
Or if the Dems drew 6 down to Breezy Point
And gave Turner a place to run  

[ Parent ]
So far
27: 44.5%-53.9%
26: 63.5%-35.0%
25: 58.8%-39.9%
24: 56.2%-42.0%
23: 49.5%-48.8%
22: 49.1%-49.1%
21: 51.6%-46.8%
20: 58.3%-39.8%
19: 52.8%-45.4%

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

NY-20
I know it's a very unionized area... but with a great nominee and a special election or an open seat general election in a wave year, could we win that seat?

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
Knowing the area well
GOP probably needs someone with strong local base of support in Schnectady County or the Town of Colonie. And some serious Dem deficiency (corrupt, inept or radical candidate)

Academic probably; I see Tonko lasting the decade  


[ Parent ]
I can give you NY-4 to 15 too.
But the only really interesting one is NY-4 at 55.3-43.9% Obama. I'll have the rest in the diary once it's finished downloading, along with Kerry, Clinton-Lazio and redistribution numbers.

Anything else that would be interesting? I don't have the time to run a set of 20 elections on it, but 2-3 more wouldn't be a huge deal.


[ Parent ]
So
NY-4 gets 3 points redder. McCarthy would have squeaked by in 2010 and with a stronger challenger and R spending she probably would have lost.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
NY-4
Could Bob Turner run here?

33, R, IN-09

[ Parent ]
No overlap
That would look awful.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
So
Gibson gets a slightly better than even district, he's not screwed.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Wow, 19 is better than I thought
When I saw all of Ulster in one district I assumed Gibson would have a tough go of it but that seat is Even and Gibson is a moderate. Definitely holdable.

Not a bad upstate map at all. Shocking that Obama won Reed's district but I think he's OK there. Hochul and Buerkle will cancel each other out, Owens is still in play.


[ Parent ]
17-18
17: 58.0%-41.2%
18: 52.1%-46.8%

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Are these numbers McCain-Obama or Obama-McCain?
Sorry, quite confused.

[ Parent ]
NY-18 comes in at 52.1% Obama.
NY-17 comes in at 57.9% Obama. Probably out of reach for y'all.

Yup


26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Since Westchester has an R County Exec now
I wouldn't write 17 totally off when Lowey retires  

[ Parent ]
Nobody's mentioning him
But Peter King is not safe.  His portion of Suffolk is about 56/43 Obama with tons of growing minorities.  Nassau section is still very GOP and his "base", so he'll probably be fine absent a good challenger.

Social Democrat, NY-02

If Steve Bellone hadn't just won County Supervisor
He could have run and beat King.

Social Democrat, NY-02

[ Parent ]
As posted below
It's an EVEN district. King shouldn't have to break a sweat. He's just super popular on LI, you aside...
He won NY-3 long before it started voting R for president.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
So, when Israel won 70% in Suffolk in 2006
The GOP should have just given up for all eternity? You're a little too confident.  I said King would be fine absent a good challenger.  Not safe, but likely GOP.  


Social Democrat, NY-02

[ Parent ]
Israel
Is definitely popular in his old district where Gore got 57%, Kerry 53% and Bush 56%. But he also face a some dude every year, not King.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
I don't know why King would run in the 3rd
The 2nd seems to be the must more logical successor to his old district (and is much friendlier turf to boot, esp. in off year elections since the Dem base is a much lower turnout group in the 2nd than in the 3rd).

[ Parent ]
Unless you're saying King would run in the 2nd but
Israel would to in order to avoid a primary with Ackerman in the 3rd. I guess that's possible.  

[ Parent ]
Israel is not popular
n/t

Walker/Martinez 2016

[ Parent ]
And NY-2
(which I wouldn't be in according to this map) would turn into old district that it was in the 90's when Rick Lazio inhabited it. Not good for Israel imo.

Walker/Martinez 2016

[ Parent ]
Lazio should run here


26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
He should have never left!
But I think he lives in the city now...

Walker/Martinez 2016

[ Parent ]
Got 55% here
Against Clinton.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
That's not responsive to what I was saying


[ Parent ]
King
Last seen winning reelection with 72% shouldn't have a problem with sharing the wealth. He's moderate enough that he should be able to win and hold any of the 4 LI districts.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Long island
NY1-5 moved on average 4 points right from 2000-2004 and then another 3 points from 2004-2008. All these districts should be 1-4 points more Republican in 2012. King's seat was D+4 in 2000 and he sailed. He can easily handle this seat.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Long Island results--
NY-1 51.4-47.6 Obama
NY-2 51.2-47.9 Obama
NY-3 53.5-45.6 Obama.

Israel in deep trouble


26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
53.5 Obama is not "deep" trouble


Social Democrat, NY-02

[ Parent ]
D+1-2 is not where you want your DCCC chair to be
If he's Tim Bishop that district is fine for him but 53.5% Obama invites the possibility of a serious big-money challenge every year. That means Israel has to spend time and money on his own race instead of helping Dems elsewhere.

[ Parent ]
Istael will face "Rich Manhasset Dude" every cycle
Holding this seat could turn into a money pit for the Democrats  

[ Parent ]
Israel
He could lose to "Rich Manhasset Dude." Then we wouldn't have to deal with him ever again.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
That's true
The DCCC chairmanship is now looking like a burden, frankly.  

Social Democrat, NY-02

[ Parent ]
Israel is done if this is his district
picture Nancy Pelosi or another prominent democrat in a D+1 district, then determine whether super pacs or any other special interest group would invest into it.

Walker/Martinez 2016

[ Parent ]
Yep
If he is not done, the Democrats are going to blow a fortune defending it.  This is bound to become the new PA-6, a seat where both parties dump insane amounts of money every cycle and there are plenty of rich donors in the area willing to finance such campaigns every other year.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
It's trending badly for them
It was D+1 Bush-Kerry and R+2 McCain-Obama. Assuming the national vote is 50-50, this could be a 54% Romney seat. That's tough.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Few Things
I doubt the national vote will be 50-50 and I don't think Romney will play as well there as McCain did.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Silly
I despise Romney probably more than anybody on this board, but even I concede the one place Romney is likely to play particularly well is on Long Island.

Romney is likely to significantly outperform McCain on Long Island IMO - Romney is exactly Long Island's type of Republican...

(...and almost no one else's type of Republican.  :/  )  


[ Parent ]
Yep
Romney will greatly outperform McCain in the suburban fringes of the Northeast Corridor.  

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
50-50
The generic congressional vote has been hovering between D+2 and R+1 in each poll. It really looks like this year is going to be a fairly neutral year. In 1996, 1998, and 2000 neither party had more than 50.5% of the congressional vote. Republicans got 52.4% in 2002 and 51.4% in 2004. I think this year will have no party getting more than 51% of congressional vote nationwide. Who gets that is anybody's guess.

Barack Obama is running 6-8 points ahead of Romney now. In Mid-February it was 2-5. In December and January, however, Romney was running ahead of Obama as often as Obama was ahead of him. This is going to bounce around for months. It's one thing to believe Obama is going to win and it's another to use that as a statistical standard.

In 2008, Obama got 53.4% of the two party vote in a very Democratic year. Even if he does well I have a tough time seeing him over 51.5%.

Romney will likely play best in white collar suburbs like Long Island, far better than McCain did.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Interesting subject.
I think McCain played better than the average Republican would have in Long Island due to his national security credentials and the continuing fall-out from 9/11.

Romney I could also see doing decently; he seems to do well in wealthy white suburbs (i.e. the Long Island Republican Party).

Of course, when three Republicans in a row do atyically well in a place you start to wonder whether all three Republicans where a good match for the area, or whether the area is actually trending Republican.

The type of candidate who wouldn't do well in Long Island, of course, is a meat-throwing Southern conservative.

http://mypolitikal.com/


[ Parent ]
Won't he run in NY-2?


26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Lives in 3
King will run in 2.

[ Parent ]
King is a shoo-in
Safer than safe R.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Peter King in an EVEN M/O seat?
Could he handle it?

[ Parent ]
King
He has NY-02 on this map; they renumbered.

And for the record, he used to hold a fairly D+ seat in the 90s.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
Although these areas voted solidly for Bush in 1988
and to a lesser degree in 1992. This isn't an area that's been trending red forever, it just had a blue spike during Clinton 1996 and gore 2000 and is receding to its roots.

[ Parent ]
Exactly


Social Democrat, NY-02

[ Parent ]
Gore got 52%
And King got 60%.
Bush got 52% and he got 63%.
McCain got 52% and he got 64%.
King is just super popular on Long Island.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
No, he's super popular among Irish and Italian voters
What everybody stereotypes as Long Island, basically.  His new district has tons of minorities, which he hasn't represented before.  It's 68.8% white VAP.  That's not "safer than safe".  

Social Democrat, NY-02

[ Parent ]
They flipped district numbers
King is now in NY-02. R+2 by 2008 numbers, Even by combined 2004/08 numbers.

[ Parent ]
Only 3 McCain seats?
I'm seeing 9, 22, and 27. Amazing how a map can be this not-bad for us with 24 Obama seats.

Also amazing
how 9 is just about the most vulnerable incumbent...

[ Parent ]
NY-09
You mean NY-11 (the new SI seat).

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
Yep, 11
Looked quickly at the state map and 9 seemed to be hovering over SI.

[ Parent ]
yup; due to Obama's large statewide margin in 08
Trying to maximize McCain seats at the state senate level packs Republicans into too few seats.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO Pattonville School District, Maryland Heights Fire District (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Hello Israel vs. Ackerman primary
My name is TX32GOP and I'm bringing my popcorn.  

Ackerman v. Israel
That would bloody Israel up enough for "Rich Manhasset Dude" to take him down. Then, he could be a jackass with an MSNBC show instead of a jackass with the DCCC Chairmanship. :)

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
analysis and my tabulations
1st: 51.7 Obama - 47.4 McCain
2nd: 50.0 Obama - 48.2 McCain
3rd: 53.6 Obama - 45.6 McCain
4thL 55.5 Obama - 43.8 McCain

11th (the new Staten Island District): 48.9 Obama - 50.3 McCain

Overall the map is MUCH swingier than before

And I think it's hard to say one side or the other was really   given a clear advantage over the existing map. This map looks like a 17-1-9 (17 strong Dem, 1 strong R (the 27th), and 9 very swingy districts).

Of the swingy districts four lean Republican (the 23 , the 22, and the 11th, and the 2nd) three lean Democratic (the 3rd, the 18th and the 19th) and two are pure tossups (the 21st and the 1st but should be Dem for now due to the effects of incumbency).

With the effects of incumbency the map should start as a either a 22-5, a 21-6, or a 20-7 depending on whether Hayworth and Gibson can survive their new, tilt-Dem districts.

btw, I'm okiedem over at DKE for any frequent readers over there


Hey, OkieDem!
Welcome to the RRH community.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
Haha thanks,
I post occasionally over here but mainly just lurk. Thanks for the warm reception.  

[ Parent ]
Signed, IllinoyedR (at DKE)


From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
Um
1. Your numbers differ from 270. I wonder why?
2. Hayworth's seat got a bit safer, didn't it?  

[ Parent ]
I don't know, but I vouch for mine.


[ Parent ]
270 is good
I was trying to draw NY 1-3 accurately and I came close to him. I'm sure mine are off.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
270 is the best
No offense to you. Him with his magic computer programs...

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
I just draw
And get a big gold star for staying within the lines. If my Upstate numbers are off, it's only by 0.1 or 0.2.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
How is my district?
I see that it dropped Coney Island, so it's probably a drop redder.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Also Gibson
is not "tilt D". It's an R+1 district...see 270 analysis above. This map should be 20-7 but the GOP could win up to 12 seats and as few as 1.

[ Parent ]
It's debateable,
Although it has a bacially even PVI, I think a seat Obama won by nearly 7 points in Upstate NY/Hudson Valley does have a slight (but not overwhelming) Dem tilt. It's really just a matter of opinion, but I think we can both agree that while he starts off with an advantage, it will be a more difficult hold than his previous district since he'll have to introduce himself to a decent number of new constituents and since Obama won his old district by only 3 points.  

[ Parent ]
R state senators represent the entire region
Even Ulster can find occasional Republicans to support

Gibson may want to promote his stand on Israel more vocally; the new Catskill counties are more Jewish than the North Country counties he's losing.  


[ Parent ]
If
All the Jews that triple the population of Sullivan county in the summer, vote up there and not in the safe D districts downstate, Gibson would be super safe.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
If, only..
..all the South Floridians who flock to the NC mountains during the summer would vote up here instead of down there, we'd be in really good shape too.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
If only
All the NYCers that spend their time in FL would just stay home and vote in Manhattan, FL would be safe R....

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
FL & NY
If this map and the Florida map are in effect in 2014, that could be a very interesting cycle in both states. Both states are redistricting so late that many potential challengers have had a limited opportunity to consider running and ramp up campaigns. A lot of incumbents would seem likely to face tougher races in the next cycle than in this one.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Thought about that
And in other states it might be the same too.
It's not only redistricting late, it's redistricting at all.
Next year, everyone will know right away how the district will look like and there will be 1 and a half years of candidate recruitment efforts.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Mine might be a bit off because I tried to draw it from
this map. http://www.scribd.com/doc/8411...

But I don't think there sufficiently different to negate the main thrust of my post.  


[ Parent ]
Got it
Yeah so 270 actually downloaded the block file and has some magic computer system that spits out DRA files. :-)

Main point is correct. Lots and lots of swingy seats. Hayworth just stayed the same/got better, Gibson is still in a 52% O seat, which isn't awful (certainly not tilt D territory), so I'd say those races start off Lean R given incumbency. Similarly, Israel, Bishop and Owens start off Lean D given incumbency.


[ Parent ]
Hey, it's good to see you come over.


(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
Ratings
NY-27: R+8
There's no reason any Republican could ever lose it. As long as we shut down Craig's List and don't let the NY GOP pick a candidate.
Safe Republican

NY-26: D+11
Higgins and Hochul should fight it out for this one.
Safe Democratic

NY-25: D+6
Could become competitive when Slaughter retires
Safe Democratic

NY-24: D+4
Buerkle is an underdog, but she is an incumbent. So I'll make it Lean, not Likely.
Leans Democratic

NY-23: R+3
A little shaky. Democrats can win here.
Likely Republican

NY-22: R+4
Should be good for Hanna, although Binghamton is full of Democratic votes.
Likely Republican

NY-21: R+1
Owens has gotten lucky.
Toss-up

NY-20: D+5
Republicans haven't been overly competitive here.
Safe Democratic

NY-19: E
Gibson is in for a tough battle.
Leans Republican, although toss-up might be appropriate.

NY-18: R+1
Hayworth in for a battle.
Leans Republican

NY-17: D+5
Could be competitive, but Lowey will hold it easily.
Safe Democratic

NY-1: R+2
Could be too Republican for Bishop.
Toss-up

NY-2: R+2
I don't think King is in any danger, but it is more Democratic.
Safe Republican

NY-3: E
Israel and Ackerman live here. It should be Lean Democratic, but they haven't been seriously challenged.
Likely Democratic

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Thanks for this
I don't really have a very in-depth knowledge of New York from a political standpoint, so I like to see a general analysis like this that puts it all together.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
Not the final map
What I'm reading in the conventional media is that this map is more of an ultimatum for the legislature than anything else, and that they are going to make a last-ditch attempt to pass something of their own instead. I'm guessing that any changes will be to NY-2 and 3 to make King and Israel safer.

Why would the Republicans agree to that?
King is safe in his district and doesn't need more Republicans. What's in it for the GOP?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
I'm guessing
Once the special master unveils the prospective NY senate maps, Skelos may be inclined to agree to just about anything on the congressional map.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
If that were the case...
Skelos would've agreed to throw Republicans under the bus by now. His congressional map, that eliminated two Democrats, was way more aggressive than anyone thought it'd be.

King was in a D+4 district in 2000. Long Island is moving right. He doesn't need any more Republicans.

It seems the only argument in favor of the Dems is that the Republicans give up a lot and get the senate map in return. You're counting on him giving something for nothing.

This map will be well received, so Cuomo can feel comfortable vetoing any senate map with a Republican gerrymander.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
No, I'm not
Actually, I'm not counting on much of anything. However, if the legislature agrees to pass maps, it'll be because of the GOP trying to hold the NY senate. The Dems have far less reason than the GOP to compromise from the congressional map as well, in my view, but I realize we look at the world through very different prisms, and that's OK by me.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Silver
Is almost as desperate. he wants a two thirds D majority in the assembly which he lost in 2010 and will never get under a court map.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Cuomo is the only culprit


26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Doesn't necessarily want the 2/3
what he wants is to make sure that there are 76 machine-dominated seats. A Micah Kellner is just as bad as a Republican from his point of view; that's why places like Brooklyn Heights and the Upper East Side have their voting power minimised under his maps.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Skelos-Silver
The congressional map is the only one the special master is drawing. So either Skelos will need to pass a congressional map in the next week or so or this'll be the map. He can't wait to see what the special master does with the senate map.

If Skelos was as desperate as you say, there's no way he lets it get this far. He would've settled last summer/fall. You don't go a year if you're willing to give up everything.

The later it gets the less a gerrymandered map will be accepted. Cuomo knows that he'll look great vetoing a map and he can trust the court.

So either Silver told him that a gerrymandered senate map wasn't worth both the assembly and congressional maps or he wasn't willing to give up the congressional map.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Meh
Both Skelos's and Silver's first maps were intended to be nonsensical dream maps as starting points.
The problem has all along been Cuomo's refusal to sign the R senate gerrymander.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
It really depends what Peter King wants
We may think that's a safe seat for him, but if Skelos and King want it safer than that's there prerogative. We've seen that plenty of times this cycle--senior incumbents demanding safer seats than outside observers think they need. King is a committee chairman and while he's likely unbeatable in this NY-02, I wouldn't blame him if he wants a district where he'll never have a race. Plus, it is a bit of a red flag that the district is under 70% white.

The other reason to do it is for Nan Hayworth. Dems probably feel confident about holding the Lowey seat regardless of whether it's shored up any further, so maybe they'll give a couple points to Hayworth if we give a couple to Israel.


[ Parent ]
legislative tweaks to this map
Assuming you take this map as the baseline starting point (if the parties don't agree):

What modifications will both parties possibly agree on? King/Israel I mentioned seems pretty obvious. Rangel might holler about his district. Some modifications to the 17/18 border perhaps.

28, R, PA-07.


Other than King/Israel and Lowey/Hayworth
You might see Gibson/Tonko tinkered with, but that's about it. Dems will want NY-26 unpacked but the Senate shouldn't let that happen unless we're getting a significant concession in return.

[ Parent ]
longterm incumbents
We have 1. They have more than a dozen. Certainly people like Crowley want more whites in their district.

28, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Remember my 4 questions
and I hope I remember the right order.  I said the upstate map will be sorted out depending upon how these questions are answers.

1st how is Erie county handled?  Where does the balance go?  Yup great plan for the GOP as Hochul is placed in a tough spot.

2nd Is Monroe kept together?  Yup and I think this helps Buerkle.  The Monroe suburbs helped Maffai win in 2008 but doomed him in 2010.  They are swingy.  This helps Buerkle because of question #3.

3rd what do you attach to Onandaga county?  The special Master attachs three rural/small town counties and Buerkle could not have got a better draw then this.  Short of splitting Onandaga county that is. Onandaga is 2/3 of seat now and Buerkle won 46% in 2010.  She won the smallish counties in this part by over 60% in 2010.  If she does 46% & 60% again she wins.  I say its tossup land for her.  

4th How is Albany area done?  Jackpot for the GOP as Troy, Amsterdam, Schnedaty and Albany are all in one seat.  You cannot pack the D's anymore so Gibson  is happy while Owen is sour.

I like this map as I think the GOP can get to least 7 seats and maybe more.  


Ackerman to the sixth
http://www.nydailynews.com/blo...
I guess he likes this map and will pressure against a compromise.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


M
Brooklyn IMO gets the shaft after this map. The county/borough should dominate three seats and they chopped up to ribbons.

Mercy what a lousy map for that area.  The only purpose for this borough is to provide people for other seats.  


[ Parent ]
well sort of
Brooklyn has 3 congressional seats. It's just that the white population of South Brooklyn (which is more than 1 seat, and heavily Jewish) was diced.

28, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
He'd have to run in the 6th
His home was drawn into the 3rd, but there's no way he'd primary Steve Israel. The rest of his district was drawn into NY-6 and NY-14. So it's either NY-6 (against Turner?) or NY-7 against Crowley. That wouldn't fly either.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Crowley might want the 6th though
That 14th is not good demographically for him, and the 6th has Middle Village.

That might be another place the legislature does some major tweaking.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
No major tweaking
Cuomo now knows he doesn't have to cave and the court map will be popular with good government groups. It's one thing to moves some towns around, but anything that approaches a gerrymander is going to get a veto.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
But it will be
highly unpopular with Crowley. I'd take a wager on who Cuomo's more worried about upsetting.

It could be pretty simple: put the eastern end of 6 in 14 and give Woodside to 6.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
moving towns around
NYC can be totally redone and it won't be for partisan purposes. For instance, do Hispanics really get a 3rd district, or are Rangel/Crowley??? going to be succeeded by non Hispanics.

I agree with BP above.

Cuomo can easily sign a map that is 'based' off the court map.

28, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
That's fine
I'm sure Cuomo and good government groups won't mind moving some towns into one district and out of another if it's not for partisan purposes. If you try to add Democratic areas in Nassau, Suffolk, and Queens to Israel's district, it'll look like a gerrymander.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
My Thoughts
This map is decent overall. I can live with Upstate and Long Island - Upstate in particular is probably pretty good (I especially like kicking Lowey's seat in the R+ direction - that seat may be in play by the late 2010's...).

However, I agree with Moshe: the way they eliminated Turner's seat is not OK.

I think Skelos should take this map, but redraw (just!) the NYC area to benefit people like Crowley, while still maintaining a seat for Turner.

NY D's might not go for it, but it's worth a shot...  


My take . . .
Skelos should negotiate to strengthen Gibson and Grimm (and maybe Hanna).  In exchange he should agree to make Israel and McCarthy safer.

Is this possible?  


[ Parent ]
I agree
IMHO there were four ridiculous gerrymanders on the old map: Nadler to South Brooklyn, Engel to Rockland, the Slaughter earmuffs, and Higgins to the PA border. Three of those were eliminated and cleaned up by this map, but they kept the stupid Manhattan-South Brooklyn configuration of Nadler's seat. It's fine to eliminate Turner, but Nadler's district should be attached to North Brooklyn, if anything. South Brooklyn should be attacked to Queens and/or Staten Island.

[ Parent ]
well, there's not enough people
Brooklyn blacks have 1.2 districts worth of people, and 2 districts. Hence, a few hundred thousand whites need to be drowned in those districts.

If you move Nadler to the North Brooklyn yuppies the 2 black seats simply swallow South Brooklyn Russians, Catholics, and Moshems, even more.

28, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
No
You eliminate one of Maloney/Nadler and all is ok.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Or
You just condense Maloney to the Upper East Side and give her a ton of Queens. The UES is still powerful enough to dominate that primary. Nadler then gets the rest of Manhattan south of Harlem, plus a little bit of Brooklyn near the bridges.

[ Parent ]
hmm
Looks to be then like you want to cut Velasquez, and then push the 2 black districts into those Hispanic precincts. That would preserve a district for Turner.

28, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Nah, Velazquez sticks around
There are enough Hispanics on the Bk/Qns border, and in northern Queens, that you can carve out a district for her that weaves around Maloney. You can even send her into the Bronx if you want, over the Triboro or Throgs Neck. This map would condense Crowley and Ackerman into one White/Asian Queens district. And yes, Turner sticks around in a Brooklyn based seat with a bit of southern Queens.

[ Parent ]
I'm pretty happy with it
Yes, some Dems might actually have to campaign a bit more, but I'm OK with that. Aside from Hochul, who was already in a 46% Obama seat that a Dem shouldn't have in the first place, none of the Democrats end up in seats they shouldn't be able to hold. As I see it, the 2-3% weakening of Israel and McCarthy are more than worth how many Republicans get tossed in the danger zone.

To be sure, far be it from me to question the prevailing wisdom on partisanship in CA, FL, and NY (i.e., 51%-52% Obama = slam-dunk GOP, 53%-54% Obama = lean GOP, 55%-56% Obama = toss-up, maybe, 62%+ Obama = safe Dem) but if enough NY Dems see things as I do, however delusional we may be, then they'll laugh at the proposed "compromises" suggested above.

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
perhaps one sign of a fair map
Is that both sides are relatively happy with what they got. At least upstate.

28, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
I might add
The Hinchey cleave between his 3 Dem areas (Ithaca, Binghampton, Ulster) was done in what appears to be a relatively favorable alignment for the GOP. Putting some Democrats in Reed's seat to prevent it from being a pack is quite nice.

28, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
I'm seeing more Democrats unhappy
about this map by far. RM is an exception.  

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Dunno what Dems you mean
Here's the DKE thread: NY Special Master Map. Aside from some initial confusion as to which one is Israel's district, and some nonsense about Hochul (who was already in a district that was a tough hold at best) it seems they range from pleased to OK with it.

Not that it makes much difference to me, but you brought it up.

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
Around the net
NY and national political blogs in particular. Hadn't even considered DKE.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Links?
Links would be nice.

It sounds as if congressional Dems are mostly OK with it, and evidently Silver doesn't seem worked up either.

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
The nuttiest of the nutroots
The three most amusing suggestions/comments I've seen around the netroots today are that...
1) Hochul should run against Reed because she'd have an excellent chance.
2) Hochul should move to LONG ISLAND to take on Peter King, who is "quite vulnerable" in his new seat..
3) Hayworth and Gibson are "all but gone."

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
forget those
The idea that King and Israel would square off to 'leave a seat open for another Democrat' is one of the funniest.

Why anyone would think a Democrat would be favored in an open seat on Long Island, I'm not sure.

28, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
"Think"
You're giving people who say things like that too much credit by the use of the word "think."

Democrats who expect things like that to happen (Israel doing that AND the seat being Dem favored) are the ones who use the "logic" that "pure progressives" will win everywhere!1!!1! Yeah, that's why they have Congressmen Manan Trivedi, Dan Seals, Bryan Lentz, Suzan DelBene, and Darcy Burner in office right now!

Steve Israel isn't an idiot and he's plenty selfish. The combination of the two would make him never, ever do that.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
We are on our way to the "Permanent" Democratic Majority
2010 is the last election Republicans will ever win.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Yeah, Dems Have Only Been Saying That...
...Every 2 years since 1992!  

[ Parent ]
Of course you like it
Neither Reed nor Hanna got a safe seat, which they easily could have. If King were to retire, Democrats should be able to compete for his seat. Grimm's seat shouldn't be competitive, but if he's tainted it could be. The only really safe seat is Hochul's and the Democrats have that now. Wasserman has updated the Cook ratings and Peter King is the only Republican not on there.

The upside for Democrats is better than you probably expected. When you're in the minority, two swing seats are better than a safe seat for each of the parties. If the ball doesn't bounce the Democrats way, what's the downside? Ending up with 190 seats instead of 192?


R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
NY-01
They have it as "likely D." I reject that. It leans D.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
This Cycle
It's Likely D.  Altschuler is a bad fit for this district.  For the entire decade as a whole, I could agree with Lean D.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
And tossup if open
On paper, you live in one of the purest swing districts in America. But Bishop is a good incumbent so he should be favored as long as he keeps running.

[ Parent ]
Agreed
Couldn't have said it better.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
As long as his district doesn't keep getting redder
Then he's likely Democratic. If not...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
NY-01
Well, who do you think would be the best recruit the GOP could get? If that person is not a politician in the district, what type of candidate (i.e. experience and personality) would suit NY-01 best?

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
Cook
After 2010, Bishop is definitely in play. I agree on Lean Democratic. He also hasn't put McCarthy or Israel on here. With the way Long Island is going, these districts are at least Likely Democratic.

He put Grimm into Lean Republican. This isn't a district a Republican can lose unless thee is a complete disaster. If Grimm gets to the point where he's a complete disaster he won't be the nominee.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
NY01 is a tossup
I know you're a democrat who resides in the district, but putting the bias aside, Altschuler only lost because of the messy primary.

Walker/Martinez 2016

[ Parent ]
That comment was for Tekzilla
n/t

Walker/Martinez 2016

[ Parent ]
Silver and Skelos agree on compromise map . . .
in five . . .  four . . . three . . .

This reminds me of 2001, when Justice Cahn (then the Special Master) drew a compromise map that put a bunch of incumbents in danger.

Very shortly thereafter, the previously knotted NY legislature agreed on a compromise map.  


NY-27 is set up for a Chris Collins comeback.
I think he could win that seat easily.

I'd prefer a Some Dude, to be honest
we can do better than Collins in our one bulletproof seat.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Yeah - I Want Someone Like Buerkle In NY-27... (nt)


[ Parent ]
I almost wish they made Buerkle's district more Democratic
If they had bumped it up to D+5-7, she probably would have given serious thought to moving to NY-27, which would have been a perfect fit. But since they kept it the same, she'll probably stay where she is and lose. Sigh.

[ Parent ]
I like it.
Looks pretty clean and respectful of communities of interest - especially upstate New York and Long Island. Much better than the last gerrymandered mess.

Of course NYC is terrible. For some reason people just love drawing nasty lines in cities, and the VRA naturally makes the lines uglier. But even parts of NYC (e.g. the Bronx) are decently drawn.

http://mypolitikal.com/


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