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Stats for the NY Special Master Map

by: Twohundertseventy

Tue Mar 06, 2012 at 12:17:26 PM EST


Okay, let's lead this off with the DRA file, after that, some geek stats.

The DRA File

Twohundertseventy :: Stats for the NY Special Master Map
DistrictObamaMcCainDR
151.4 %47.6 %54 %46 %
251.2 %47.9 %53.5 %46.5 %
353.5 %45.6 %55.9 %44.1 %
455.3 %43.9 %57 %43 %
586.3 %13.4 %87 %13 %
663.5 %35.6 %67.8 %32.2 %
784.4 %14.9 %86.7 %13.3 %
883.6 %16.1 %84.6 %15.4 %
986.1 %13.4 %87.1 %12.9 %
1075.7 %23.3 %76.2 %23.8 %
1148.3 %50.9 %52.1 %47.9 %
1280.2 %18.8 %76.6 %23.4 %
1393.3 %6.1 %93.6 %6.4 %
1476.1 %23.2 %78.1 %21.9 %
1594.5 %5.2 %95.7 %4.3 %
1672.9 %26.5 %71.5 %28.5 %
1757.9 %41.3 %60.2 %39.8 %
1852.1 %46.8 %54.3 %45.7 %
1953 %45.3 %53.3 %46.7 %
2058.3 %39.8 %59.8 %40.2 %
2151.7 %46.7 %53.8 %46.2 %
2249.1 %49.1 %50.9 %49.1 %
2349.6 %48.8 %49 %51 %
2456.2 %42 %57.5 %42.5 %
2558.8 %39.9 %59.6 %40.4 %
2663.5 %35 %58.9 %41.1 %
2744.5 %53.9 %42.3 %57.7 %

DistrictWhiteBlackHispanicAsian
178 %4 %13 %3 %
266 %9 %20 %3 %
372 %3 %10 %13 %
461 %14 %18 %5 %
512 %50 %19 %11 %
638 %4 %18 %37 %
728 %8 %43 %18 %
822 %52 %18 %5 %
930 %50 %11 %6 %
1065 %4 %12 %17 %
1164 %7 %16 %11 %
1267 %5 %13 %13 %
1312 %27 %55 %4 %
1425 %10 %47 %16 %
152 %29 %65 %2 %
1640 %30 %23 %5 %
1763 %10 %20 %6 %
1872 %8 %15 %3 %
1986 %4 %6 %1 %
2080 %9 %5 %4 %
2192 %3 %3 %1 %
2289 %4 %3 %2 %
2390 %3 %3 %2 %
2484 %8 %4 %2 %
2572 %15 %7 %3 %
2671 %18 %5 %3 %
2793 %2 %2 %1 %

DistrictWhiteVAPBlackVAPHispanicVAPAsianVAP
180 %4 %11 %3 %
269 %8 %19 %3 %
374 %3 %9 %13 %
463 %13 %17 %5 %
513 %50 %18 %11 %
640 %4 %17 %37 %
729 %8 %41 %19 %
825 %51 %17 %5 %
930 %51 %11 %6 %
1065 %4 %12 %17 %
1167 %6 %14 %11 %
1268 %4 %12 %13 %
1314 %27 %53 %4 %
1428 %10 %45 %16 %
153 %29 %64 %2 %
1642 %30 %21 %5 %
1764 %10 %19 %6 %
1874 %8 %13 %3 %
1988 %4 %5 %1 %
2083 %8 %4 %4 %
2192 %3 %2 %1 %
2291 %3 %3 %2 %
2391 %3 %3 %2 %
2486 %7 %3 %2 %
2576 %13 %6 %3 %
2675 %16 %4 %3 %
2794 %2 %2 %1 %

District12345
1Bishop 97%Israel 3%   
2Israel 53%King 47%   
3Israel 39%Ackerman 33%King 23%Meeks 3%Bishop 1%
4McCarthy 81%King 19%   
5Meeks 81%McCarthy 11%Turner 5%Ackerman 2% 
6Turner 45%Ackerman 38%Crowley 8%Meeks 6%Velazquez 3%
7Velazquez 71%Towns 12%Turner 7%Clarke 7%Maloney 3%
8Towns 61%Turner 17%Nadler 9%Clarke 7%Velazquez 3%
9Clarke 68%Towns 21%Turner 11%  
10Nadler 69%Rangel 14%Grimm 8%Clarke 5%Turner 3%
11Grimm 88%Nadler 9%Turner 3%  
12Maloney 77%Velazquez 13%Nadler 10%  
13Rangel 73%Engel 14%Serrano 12%Maloney 1% 
14Crowley 62%Ackerman 20%Maloney 11%Velazquez 5%Rangel 2%
15Serrano 84%Crowley 16%   
16Engel 49%Lowey 44%Crowley 6%  
17Lowey 48%Engel 32%Hayworth 20%  
18Hayworth 74%Hinchey 23%Gibson 2%Lowey 1% 
19Gibson 44%Hinchey 38%Hanna 7%Tonko 7%Hayworth 4%
20Tonko 83%Gibson 17%Bishop 0%  
21Owens 62%Gibson 33%Tonko 4%Hanna 1% 
22Hanna 56%Hinchey 23%Owens 20%  
23Reed 54%Higgins 19%Hanna 17%Hinchey 10% 
24Buerkle 80%Owens 11%Hanna 10%  
25Slaughter 38%Reed 28%Hochul 20%Buerkle 14% 
26Higgins 42%Slaughter 37%Hochul 20%  
27Hochul 53%Higgins 27%Reed 11%Slaughter 9%

DistrictKerryBushClintonLazio
149.3%50.7%40.7%59.3%
249.5%50.5%41.2%58.8%
351.8%48.2%44.9%55.1%
454.4%45.6%47.3%52.7%
584.8%15.2%83%17%
660.1%39.9%57.6%42.4%
781.5%18.5%81%19%
880.3%19.7%80.9%19.1%
983.3%16.7%84.3%15.7%
1072.2%27.8%69.2%30.8%
1143.4%56.6%42.8%57.2%
1276.8%23.2%71.8%28.2%
1391.7%8.3%90.3%9.7%
1470.7%29.3%71.1%28.9%
1591.8%8.2%93%7%
1668.1%31.9%63.6%36.4%
1754%46%48.8%51.2%
1846.2%53.8%40.6%59.4%
1948.7%51.3%44.2%55.8%
2055.9%44.1%54%46%
2147.1%52.9%45.5%54.5%
2246.3%53.7%45.6%54.4%
2345.1%54.9%44.5%55.5%
2452.2%47.8%51.4%48.6%
2552.1%47.9%49.8%50.2%
2663.4%36.6%63.3%36.7%
2742.6%57.4%43%57%

DistrictSchneidermanDonovanDiNapoliWilson
144.7%55.3%44.2%55.8%
244.6%55.4%44.2%55.8%
347.4%52.6%47%53%
449.1%50.9%49%51%
584%16%83.3%16.7%
660.2%39.8%58.5%41.5%
782.5%17.5%80%20%
882.1%17.9%81.1%18.9%
985.1%14.9%84.3%15.7%
1071.8%28.2%64.8%35.2%
1137.9%62.1%44.6%55.4%
1275.1%24.9%66.2%33.8%
1391.7%8.3%87.9%12.1%
1473.4%26.6%71.3%28.7%
1593.6%6.4%92.7%7.3%
1665.5%34.5%61.2%38.8%
1754.1%45.9%49.4%50.6%
1847.6%52.4%44.9%55.1%
1947.7%52.3%43.2%56.8%
2052.9%47.1%46.1%53.9%
2146%54%40.1%59.9%
2246%54%37.8%62.2%
2344.2%55.8%37.9%62.1%
2450.6%49.4%42.4%57.6%
2553.3%46.7%43.4%56.6%
2655.3%44.7%48.4%51.6%
2737.6%62.4%31.1%68.9%

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Great!
You're quite fast in compiling this.

Thanks! Yeah, a lot of it is features in DRA
that people don't often use, and the rest is stuff that you code once and then just plug in. Calculating the election data takes me like a minute per election.

[ Parent ]
Thanks!
Now I see that Israel is in more trouble. His district is legitimately chopped up. Only 39% in 3. Could spell more trouble than just getting an EVEN district.

25, Male, R, NY-10

I really wouldn't
be surprised if Israel tried to run in NY-2. But that would pit him against King right?

Walker/Martinez 2016

[ Parent ]
There
Is no way Israel runs against King and there is no way he beats him in a 51% Obama district.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
That would be quite a match though!
I really think Israel has another one or two terms left in him if he wins this year, but after sailing through for the past 12 years he's probably ready to call it quits. He was ready to jump ship in 2010 before Obama talked him out of it!

Walker/Martinez 2016

[ Parent ]
Steve Israel
He was ready to jump ship in 2010 before Obama talked him out of it!

Uh... source? Proof? He was going to retire? He wouldn't take the DCCC gig if he ever had wishes to retire.


[ Parent ]
jump ship is sort of misleading
He wanted the Clinton senate seat.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Jump Ship meaning run for Senate
n/t

Walker/Martinez 2016

[ Parent ]
along with Lowery
Weiner and McCartey

[ Parent ]
Wonder if we can
Get George Demos to carpetbag here?  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Now I see why
Nadler didn't get redder by dropping Coney Island, he picked up part of Rangel's district. 15% of the district is 95% Obama precincts. I'm screwed.

25, Male, R, NY-10

Basically, yes. 100,000 people live in precincts
that voted over 90% Obama. Half of the district in precincts that voted over 80% Obama.

[ Parent ]
I know I have said this about
Washington, Iowa, Nevada and Wisconsin but upstate New York had its grips with McCain.

McCain had this crazy idea that the milk program, which is alot the Soviet style price controls, is un-American.  So in the diary areas of New York he got hammered.  Well he ran well behind Bush 2000-2004 numbers in upstate New York.

great stats--thanks for doing it 270.


McCain in Upstate
McCain should be expected to run 5 points behind Bush, since that's how he ran nationally. NY16, 17, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, and 23 were all 4-6 points behind Bush. NY-18 was 7 points behind and NY-25 was 8. NY-26 was 2 points behind and NY-27 was 3.

He pretty much ran here what he did in the country overall.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Bush-McCain
were both hard sales in NY to be honest.  Neither one put any effort there which certainly hurt.  

I think Gibson and Buerkle can both win their seats.  Not slam dunks but Buerkle at least a very compact seat where she can focus on getting to 46 to 48 percent in her home county.  The Syracuse area has had a long history of GOP incumbents outrunning the national party.  

I give Buerkle a 50-50 chance.

The D's will hate this map on Long Island.  Even CD4 can be had.  What was CM's numbers in 2010?  Now the seat is more R?


[ Parent ]
Not a single R
Repping Syracuse was ever a conservative.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Not really
George Wortley, who preceded Walsh Jr., was fairly conservative for his time IIRC. He'd be more of a Toomey type today but that was well to the right of most NYS Republicans in the 80s.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Here in TN
Grimm-Lazio-King would be considered liberal republicans.

How many republicans in NY are for RTW laws?  I would not be so quite to discredit Walsh's voting record.  His and King's ratings are nearly identical.  


[ Parent ]
Probably all of them
In the northeast white collar people are a higher percentage of the Republican party than anywhere else. It's one thing to not want unions in Tennessee, it's another to have to deal with them on a regular basis.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Not True
Because of the strength of Public Sector Unions. If you were talking about factory workers and public sector unions you would have a point, but the Public Sector Unions(Teachers/Fireman/Police) run both parties in New England. Its inconceivable for any politician to oppose them. Its one reason why Christie is so surprising and refreshing and even he would never dare suggest RTW.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Yeah
A bunch of unions (painters, firefighters) already endorsed Grimm.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Unions
Corruptly (very) run everything in NYC. Hence, why I loathe them so much. I pay double for everything because of it.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
I guess if I had one of those
union jobs for the police where I got 90% of my pay for life, after 30 years, I would be pro union too.  

In the NE no one in either party is RTW and yes many unions support republicans.  

So King and Walsh IMO more then qualify as conservatives ala NY and NE. I am not like KOS who berate Boren or Shuler or Gene Taylor type democrats.  A Coburn can't win in NY so I will settle for 7 King like congressman.  

I am gleeful today about this map because I think we get at least 7 seats.  Could be 9 or 10.  

kudos to LCL or was it IJB? Whoever was telling us that the GOP could do better under a court map was right.  


[ Parent ]
What I was expecting
I'm not loving this map. It's better than we could do if Skelos gave away the farm. but it's not as good as I was expecting.

1. Turner's district was completely eliminated to the point the GOP can't compete in Queens.

2. Reed's district is no longer safe. The only safe districts I see are King, because of who he is, Grimm, although he could blow that, and the open Western New York seat. In some maps, Hanna got a safe district.

I was expecting 3 58-59% Obama districts for Lowey, Tonko, and Slaughter. That's what we got. I was expecting 55-56% for Buerkle. We got that too.

What is good is that no Long Island district is out of reach. I see this map as
15 Safe Democratic
1 Likely Democratic
2 Lean Democratic
2 Toss-up
2 Lean Republican
2 Likely Republican
3 Safe Republican

If you weren't expecting 12 districts that the GOP could compete in, then it's better than what you thought would happen. It's also possible that when Lowey and Slaughter retire, their seats could be competitive.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
A daring question
Perhaps the 2014 election cycle, the Republicans can win the proposed NY-24.  Maggie Brooks won with 56+% of the vote in 2011.

Representative on Congress: Rep. Wagner, MO

[ Parent ]
"In 2011"
That's not even a midterm.  

[ Parent ]
You aren't going to win in the suburbs
If you're pro-union. That's private sector unions. RTW applies to them. Public sector unions are treated differently.

 

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Not in the New Hampshire Effort
Which is one reason it crashed and burned.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
For good measure
If it's not too hard, Paladino, Schumer and Gillibrand numbers too....

25, Male, R, NY-10

Here you go-

DistrictCuomoPaladinoSchumerTownsendGillibrandDioGuardi
158.7%41.3%57.2%42.8%52.4%47.6%
259%41%57.1%42.9%51.9%48.1%
361.6%38.4%59.6%40.4%54.3%45.7%
464%36%61.5%38.5%55.7%44.3%
589.7%10.3%89.2%10.8%87%13%
671.3%28.7%70.4%29.6%66%34%
788.4%11.6%88%12%85.5%14.5%
887.5%12.5%87.7%12.3%84.9%15.1%
989.6%10.4%89.9%10.1%87.5%12.5%
1081.2%18.8%79.4%20.6%76.5%23.5%
1158.6%41.4%58.7%41.3%52%48%
1285.1%14.9%82%18%79.9%20.1%
1395.2%4.8%94.3%5.7%93.5%6.5%
1481.3%18.7%81.1%18.9%77.6%22.4%
1595.5%4.5%95.7%4.3%94.7%5.3%
1675.6%24.4%74.2%25.8%69.5%30.5%
1764.7%35.3%63.7%36.3%58.4%41.6%
1858.1%41.9%56.6%43.4%54.5%45.5%
1957.6%42.4%57.3%42.7%58.2%41.8%
2064.6%35.4%63.6%36.4%63.2%36.8%
2160%40%60.1%39.9%60.2%39.8%
2255.5%44.5%57.3%42.7%56.9%43.1%
2349%51%57.9%42.1%56%44%
2461.8%38.2%63.8%36.2%59.2%40.8%
2564.4%35.6%64.4%35.6%59.3%40.7%
2645.1%54.9%70.6%29.4%67.9%32.1%
2734.6%65.4%53.3%46.7%49.9%50.1%


[ Parent ]
Under four minutes, actually :P


[ Parent ]
district 26
Is it really 45% Cuomo and over 70(!)% Schumer? That seems odd.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Paladino country
Buffalo

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Paladino carried Erie by almost 20 points, yeah.


[ Parent ]
So
Paladino got 55% in a 64% Obama district. Just amazing. DioGuardi only won a single district and by a hair, even while he performed better statewide.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
These stats are misleading
An unhinged Paladino followed by two nobodys, what a ticket!

Walker/Martinez 2016

[ Parent ]
Absolute GOP floors
What it really shows is GOP downballot strength on Long Island. Even in blowout wins, Schumer and Gillibrand were held to the 50's and performed worse in the swing districts there than upstate.

[ Parent ]
It's true
But you could also make the argument that it was 2010 after all, but that isn't true, because down ballot Rs as congressional candidates and congressmen, senators and assemblypeople ran way ahead of them.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Spitzer-Faso
Spitzer-Faso would be a good comparison to see how the area has changed.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Here-

DistrictSpitzerFaso
163.1%36.9%
262.9%37.1%
365.1%34.9%
467%33%
590.9%9.1%
674.2%25.8%
790.3%9.7%
890%10%
992%8%
1084.7%15.3%
1163.9%36.1%
1286.1%13.9%
1395.4%4.6%
1482.1%17.9%
1595.3%4.7%
1676.7%23.3%
1766.5%33.5%
1864.1%35.9%
1962.8%37.2%
2070.6%29.4%
2162.6%37.4%
2263.4%36.6%
2358.9%41.1%
2467.3%32.7%
2567.2%32.8%
2670.4%29.6%
2753.6%46.4%


[ Parent ]
Strike that
I wanted to strike that request as soon as I made it. California ran 4 points behind New York for Kerry and only 1 point behind for Obama. Yet our worst candidates get 38-39% of the statewide two party vote. The best candidate for senate or governor 2006-2010 got 35%. So even if California is 4 points ahead of New York our worst candidate shouldn't equal their best.

Unless, of course, New York runs awful candidates that people won't vote for. Paladino's 35% of two party vote isn't reflective of GOP strength in New York. I'm betting that outside of Buffalo Paladino ran 10 points behind most Republican congressional candidates.

Using statewide numbers for governor or senator won't tell you much.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
I know I am beating a dead horse
here but in upstate NY the litchpin in two seats are Onandaga and Ulster county.  You cannot use the 58% and  60% Obama numbers in those seats.  In congressional races and legislative races those counties are not that starkly D.

Buerkle and whoever faced Hinchey got 46 and 45 percent and in those two counties in 2010.  Those seats are both more R then what the statewide numbers look.  


CVAP stats for NYC majority-minority districts
I thought this would be good to throw in for primaries.

5th: 59% Black CVAP, 17% White CVAP, 15% Hispanic CVAP, 10% Asian CVAP
6th: 50% White CVAP, 31% Asian CVAP, 15% Hispanic CVAP
7th: 39% Hispanic CVAP, 35% White CVAP, 17% Asian CVAP
8th: 53% Black CVAP, 29% White CVAP, 15% Hispanic CVAP
9th: 52% Black CVAP, 29% White CVAP, 15% Hispanic CVAP
13th: 49% Hispanic CVAP, 32% Black CVAP, 17% White CVAP
14th: 40% Hispanic CVAP, 35% White CVAP, 13% Asian CVAP, 13% Black CVAP
15th: 62% Hispanic CVAP, 32% Black CVAP,
16th: 49% White CVAP, 31% Black CVAP, 16% Hispanic CVAP.


#13 is the key
This is the only district I see where Hispanic VAP is above the 50% magic line but Hispanic CVAP is not.

It suggests that #13 should be slightly modified.

Although if you derived this by plugging #13 into DRA, its quite possible the court master is splitting voting areas to get that last percentage point anyway.


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
It's from DRA (although automatically loaded into DRA)
but, yeah, precinct splits I can't account for. But it's pretty doubtful that with a few precinct splits you can pull out 1.5% (it's 48.5, rounded up by me here).

But I don't think CVAP is the standard in the Circuit Court that covers NY, so far.


[ Parent ]
Two words: Puerto Ricans
Remember, that seat is mostly Puerto Rican.

[ Parent ]
Ugh. If that's it, I have to try to calculate it
without the quick fix I used and without precinct splits. Which is doable, but annoying.

[ Parent ]
There's some differences in naming conventions between
the US court sheet and the Census, which makes it impossible for me to match up 80,000 people on a block group level.

This isn't actually as bad as it sounds, because these people should be randomly distributed, so missing blocks that are more Hispanic and less Hispanic than the district should cancel out. For instance, the areas that I managed to match up are 23.5% Bronx, the district is 24% Bronx.

Among these, the Hispanic CVAP is actually 46%. Even if the areas I missed are more Hispanic, which is well possible, that makes it unlikely that the district cracks 50% CVAP.


[ Parent ]
As you already said
CVAP is only the standard in Texas (well, whatever DC administers TX). Other states use VAP, which makes sense since technically it's illegal to ask about citizenship...

[ Parent ]
NY-04
I think that the NRCC may be phoning Francis X. Becker if this is the final plan. McCarthy's seat got a couple of points redder.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

I did really like Francis X. in 2010
For a race that no one paid any attention to in the toughest media market in the country, his 46.4% was very impressive. I'm not sure if this is the best year, but I'd definitely like to see him make another run sometime this decade.

[ Parent ]
what's the X stand for?
I know of no male names starting with X.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
I think that it stands for 'Xavier,'
but I'll check.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
LI and the letter "X"
There was also a one term State Senator from LI elected in 2008 whose middle initial stood for nothing but was "X."

[ Parent ]
Yep
Lawyer sites list his full name.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Francis Xavier!
Xavier is actually a pretty common middle name to be paired with Francis, as Francis Xavier is one of the more popular Catholic saints.

[ Parent ]
Heh
I know a guy named "Xavi." (pronounced "Shah-vee"). Awesome name.

[ Parent ]
yeah
should've thought of Xavier due to Becerra.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
All four
seats in Long Island can be had by the GOP.  The right candidates could sweep those seats in the right year.  

[ Parent ]
I'm not that happy with this map
Our current incumbents were given more marginal districts except for Hanna.

Peter King: R+1   >> more Dem
Michael Grimm: R+5  >> more Dem
Nan Hayworth: R+2   >>more Dem
Chris Gibson: EVEN  >> more Dem
Richard Hanna: R+3  >> more Rep
Tom Reed: R+3 >> more Dem
Ann Marie Buerkle: D+3 >> more Dem
Bob Turner: district chopped

OTOH, the map gives us chances to win seats held by a Dem.

Tim Bishop: R+1 >> more Rep
Steve Israel: D+2 >> more Rep
Carolyn McCarthy: D+4 >> more Rep
Bill Owens: R+1  >> more Rep
Kathy Hochul: R+7 >> more Rep; guaranteed pickup



New York is what it is.
No one expected the Special Master to draw an R gerrymander.  That being said upstate we rolled four 7's to run the table.

1st Erie & Niagara was done as as good as it could be.

2nd Monroe in one CD helps us in nearby seats

3rd Onandaga attached to those three counties in one of the few arrangements that gives Buerkle a chance.

4th Albany to Amesterdam to Troy to Schnadty is a D sinkhole.

I expected Hinchey for Turner and the division of CD22 could not have been better for the GOP.  Grimm gets a seat he can win.

On Long Island King was a GOP sinkhole as he actually had a McCain seat.  Under these lines we might have run the table and won these CDs in 2010.  King has a seat he can win and we get three other possible pickups.  Did I mention Owens get a worse seat.

Yes the GOP incumbents have challenges but this map is about as good as we see.  


[ Parent ]
Upstate
The GOP got 1 safe Upstate seat, when Hanna and Reed could've gotten safe seats.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
I agree 100%
that by conceding Buerkle seat-if the master would have allowd that we could have bolstered Reed and Hanna.  Maybe even Gibson.

Unfortunely we did not get one column A and one from Column B choice.  I personally would have been tickled pick with 7 pretty safe seats.  Ditch Buerkle for Hochul while Hinchey and Turner are swapped.  Of course Owens and Bishop would have likely have been improved under that swap.  So yes we get a few marginalized incumbents then we can handle the truth?  We got down to 2 seats in NY in 2010 after losing some specials.  We have some pretty decent chances up to 12 seats.  Yes we could drop down to 6 or even 5 but hey in 2010 we were at 2 under a decent map for us.  So I guess I like my chances under this map.  

Would I give up Buerkle for two safer seats for Reed and Hanna.  No I like Hanna and Reed's chances.  Gibson will in fights but he also over preformed in 2010.  I think Ulster can be smoothed over him.  Ditto for Haysworth.  


[ Parent ]
Which one is the Monroe County district?


[ Parent ]
CD25 is Monroe county
seat.  

[ Parent ]
Maggie Brooks
Could she win the seat if she runs there? It's D+5 though.  

[ Parent ]
Yes
She carried the Monroe County executive vote with 56%.

Representative on Congress: Rep. Wagner, MO

[ Parent ]
Easily
It's not as good as the Skellos map taking out parts of Pittsford, but the seat is suburban not urban and the local GOP is very strong in the suburbs while the dems are a mess.

NY-24

[ Parent ]
not a full R gerrymander
Turner appears to have no where to run unless he moves to Grim's seat.

And Grim's seat was made slightly more D.

Other than that though, everything else appears to be in the Republican favor.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
oops; misread the tone of the poster's first sentence


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Sean Trende from RCP
Would you mind telling me how you break out the downticket stuff in DRA?  I've seen people do it before, and have always wondered how...

I guess that's directed at me because I'm usually the one
doing that. I'm pretty good at Excel coding so I developed a sheet that spits me out all kinds of interesting data when I feed it with the output from a .drf file.

Downticket stuff is part of it. It's basically a relatively simple algorithm that empirically approximates the real election results to within half a point provided they're within the last decade. The basic story is that if in a given county Bush got 85% of McCain's total and Kerry 75% of Obama's, I will assign them that in every precinct within that county too.

Given that a) most counties are either unsplit or trivially split in most maps, and b) that uniform swing is a reality in our political system, that works out decently.

The nice thing is that I automated that, as well as calculating redistribution stats and yesterday for the New York map CVAP stats as well.  


[ Parent ]
Ahhh...
So it's an estimate?  I suppose that's a problem for something like Erie County, where we might expect to see more of a swing with certain candidates in the 'burbs than among the WWC (or in Brooklyn, w/ white vs. African Am voters).  But overall, I htink it's a reasonable assumption.

Interesting stuff!


[ Parent ]
I can't speak for 270
I recommended you to come here though.
In NY, you can get official results from the state on all races for each assembly district at least. I don't know though if he uses it or not.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
I can break it down by any unit I have election results for.
But counties are usually most convenient because USElectionatlas has them in a format that's pretty friendly to copy and paste.

[ Parent ]
I just meant to say
That in NY with more precise official results, you can just get even better results.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
I can break it down by any unit I have election results for.
But counties are usually most convenient because USElectionatlas has them in a format that's pretty friendly to copy and paste.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, an estimate. Which allows me to churn out
pretty accurate numbers for every election in the last decade in half an hour if I want to.

Generally it seems to hold up pretty well. I engineered Obama-McCain numbers for Washington from the Murray-Rossi set in DRA and cross-validated it against the official results, and I was mostly off by a fifth of a percentage point or so.

There usually aren't huge discrepancies either when DKE calculates the results down to a vote later for some elections (I think they did Illinois 2010 statewide races, for instance).

There are some cases where it can be problematic, but that's mostly limited to giant counties like LA County and races that absolutely don't follow any coherent federal dynamics (imagine a Mississippi race where the Democrat gets 90% in 25% Obama areas).


[ Parent ]
Yeah
Wasn't meant as criticism, just makes more trying to get a sense of the limitations of the approach.  Seems to me that we're on the same page re the limitations of it, and it's good to hear that you were able to reverse engineer some out-of-sample data.  Excellent stuff!

[ Parent ]
Welcome to RRH!
I'm glad that the ever-growing RRH community has some big time readers.

[ Parent ]
Yeah
Sean, you are more than welcome to comment here on politics.
We love your POV.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
No, sure, didn't take it as criticism.
I'm always glad to get some qualified feedback on my stuff. I've been trying to move away from sample data in calculating CVAP data for NY Congressional Districts, but as soon as you're starting to deal with Block Groups and such (of which NY of course has tens of thousands), a lot of data processing just gets iffy.

[ Parent ]
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