PPP: National poll numbers show a tight race between the President and his two main GOP rivals. He leads Santorum by 3% and Romney by 4% in this poll completed last week. I could link this week's Rasmussen's numbers but they are about except his polls usually show Romney doing better in head to head matchups with the President. Since they are so close I will not bother to post it.
Louisiana: Romney faces an uphill battle in this state's Saturday Primary. I am interested to see how the votes break down on Saturday. Where will Romney's strength be?
Iowa: The Santorum campaign is out to win the Iowa caucus a second time. Yes the new plan for Santorum to win enough delegates to win the nomination is to win more delegates in states like Washington, Colorado and Maine that have already held local caucuses. The Idea is to somehow show up and win more delegates at county or state events. Some of this is just Caucus 101. Every contested nomination fight sees this sort of fight. It is like the second half of a football game and this memo is like a nice halftime speech to rally the team. I measure what the Santorum team says against how they performed at the Missouri Caucus last Saturday. Game plans are nice but if you cannot execute them they are just fodder for the trash.
Missouri: Round two for local county/city caucuses for the Show me State on Saturday. There will be only three meetings in Jackson and St Charles Counties plus the City of St Louis. The Paul, Romney and Santorum campaigns have had a week to just focus on these events so I expect there to be huge crowds.
Missouri: Sarah Steelman picked up the endorsement of the Teaparty Express. This national group's endorsement has played a role in other GOP primaries. Missouri based teaparty groups have no rallied around a particular candidate as of yet but sometimes who shouts loudest and 1st has the most impact. This could be a big deal for Steelman.
Indiana: This is a time of trouble for Richard Lugar. He has had to fight for the right to vote in his race. Today he has agreed to repay $4500 in taxpayer money spent on hotel bills in his home state. The Indiana Right to Life has endorsed his primary foe as have the NRA. The primary is in early May and unless Dick Lugar turns this race around he could lose.
New York: This article details a DCCC memo that claims that there are no "safe Republican seats in New York". Since the GOP count in New York was at a low of 2 in the last decade and only one Republican seat has not flipped during the last ten years. I would have to agree with that assertion. I might add that it is so self evident that it is a waste of paper. So in the spirit of this memo I will say that while there are no "safe Republican seats in New York" there are also 14 seats that the Democrats could lose in New York.
Florida: This article has an interactive display of the new Florida State Map.
SD27 Day 3: The lead for Storobin is now 118. On Wednesday the commission redid the counts off the machines. Thursday they redid tally sheets. On Election day it was +120 for Storobin then on Wednesday it was 143 and now the lead is 118. I believe the next step is write in ballots. There were only two names on the ballot but you could have wrote in Fidler or Storobin instead of casting a vote for them on the machine. Not sure if this is common but stay tuned.