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Morning Roundup March 23, 2012

by: rdelbov

Fri Mar 23, 2012 at 09:00:00 AM EDT


President

PPP: National poll numbers show a tight race between the President and his two main GOP rivals. He leads Santorum by 3% and Romney by 4% in this poll completed last week. I could link this week's Rasmussen's numbers but they are about except his polls usually show Romney doing better in head to head matchups with the President. Since they are so close I will not bother to post it.

Louisiana: Romney faces an uphill battle in this state's Saturday Primary. I am interested to see how the votes break down on Saturday. Where will Romney's strength be?

Iowa: The Santorum campaign is out to win the Iowa caucus a second time. Yes the new plan for Santorum to win enough delegates to win the nomination is to win more delegates in states like Washington, Colorado and Maine that have already held local caucuses. The Idea is to somehow show up and win  more delegates at county or state events. Some of this is just Caucus 101. Every contested nomination fight sees this sort of fight. It is like the second half of a football game and this memo is like a nice halftime speech to rally the team. I measure what the Santorum team says against how they performed at the Missouri Caucus last Saturday. Game plans are nice but if you cannot execute them they are just fodder for the trash.

Missouri: Round two for local county/city caucuses for the Show me State on Saturday. There will be only three meetings in Jackson and St Charles Counties plus the City of St Louis. The Paul, Romney and Santorum campaigns have had a week to just focus on these events so I expect there to be huge crowds. 

Senate

Missouri: Sarah Steelman picked up the endorsement of the Teaparty Express. This national group's endorsement has played a role in other GOP primaries. Missouri based teaparty groups have no rallied around a particular candidate as of yet but sometimes who shouts loudest and 1st has the most impact. This could be a big deal for Steelman.

Indiana: This is a time of trouble for Richard Lugar.  He has had to fight for the right to vote in his race. Today he has agreed to repay $4500 in taxpayer money spent on hotel bills in his home state. The Indiana Right to Life has endorsed his primary foe as have the NRA. The primary is in early May and unless Dick Lugar turns this race around he could lose.

House

New York: This article details a DCCC memo that claims that there are no "safe Republican seats in New York". Since the GOP count in New York was at a low of 2 in the last decade and only one Republican seat has not flipped during the last ten years. I would have to agree with that assertion. I might add that it is so self evident that it is a waste of paper. So in the spirit of this memo I will say  that while there are no "safe Republican seats in New York" there are also 14 seats that the Democrats could lose in New York.   

Redistricting

Florida: This article has an interactive display of the new Florida State Map. 

Miscellaneous

SD27 Day 3: The lead for Storobin is now 118. On Wednesday the commission redid the counts off the machines.  Thursday they redid tally sheets.  On Election day it was +120 for Storobin then on  Wednesday it was 143 and now the lead is 118.  I believe the next step is write in ballots.  There were only two names on the ballot but you could have wrote in Fidler or Storobin instead of casting a vote for them on the machine.  Not sure if this is common but stay tuned.

rdelbov :: Morning Roundup March 23, 2012
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Morning Roundup March 23, 2012 | 98 comments
NY SD-27
Actually it's 119 now... Write-ins halfway counted...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

I hope to include
the write ins as a SD27 day 4 update.  My week ends today or this weekend so I hope others will update the absentee count next week.

[ Parent ]
NY-6
This is made to sit back and enjoy!
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/l...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

You buy that?
You sure this is all not Kabuki to make it look like he's not pulling strings and clearing the way for her?
[ Parent ]
I wonder that, too.
Another "devious" possibility: The Crowley-cousin is running to help Grace Meng by splitting the white vote with Rory Lancman.

Age 42. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.
[ Parent ]
World Bank
No Hillary or Kerry as expected...

Jim Yong Kim, President of Dartmouth is the nominee.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

However
Most people don't care one bit about this thingy.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Unless of course
If the letters were a little different and picked someone very controversial like Kim Jong Il..../snark

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Ron Paul as Mitt's campaign arm.
Seriously.

Hard to believe?

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

so
Paul can't win but wants to influence the race... what's wrong with that?

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!
[ Parent ]
When
Rs accuse Ds for being soft on crime, we mean this.
Sadly, we won't win any elections on this in LA.
http://www.foxnews.com/politic...

Thankfully, Steve Cooley might not let it go on.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Just one of the many ways
that California is becoming "unlivable" for middle-class Americans.

New York City went through a similar phase from the late-50s to the early 90s. Eventually Giuliani showed up and the situation improved (although still not to the point it was before the chaos). Is there a Giuliani-type figure in California's future?  

Age 42. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.

[ Parent ]
I don't have the stats here
but I do believe that many of the crime measures for NYC haven't been this low since the very early 1960's....well before the insanity of the lates 60's.  My parents grew up in the Bronx and in my mom's case, they didn't need to bail until the mid-70's.

A Rudy phenomenon is probably a once in a lifetime event and I think that a widespread section of the California population has to demand it.  

35, Republican, NJ-11  

[ Parent ]
The disintegration of New York was a complex process.
It didn't hit every single neighborhood (much less every family or business or individual) all at once. Also, for some people, there was nowhere else to move to, so they just hunkered down and tried to tough it out.

I agree with your point about the "Rudy phenomenon" (a sharp phrase, by the way). It will only occur in California (if it ever does) when enough political constituencies (including a good # of Democrats) finally admit to themselves that the current path is simply not sustainable. This will involve a major battle with the public unions (Wisconsin was a piece of cake in comparison) and obviously nobody wants to tangle with them if they can possibly avoid it.

Age 42. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.

[ Parent ]
You are right
about some areas escaping relatively unscathed (I am thinking of areas like Bayside, Throggs Neck, etc).  

If you drove down the Major Deegan or on the Cross Bronx in the 80's you saw abandoned burned out buildings but I don't think you would find any now.

For change to happen you have to have people pushed to the point where they are willing to question their prior beliefs/voting habits.  The public union issues in California will reach a boiling point only when the tax pain becomes completely unbearable for the average voter (or the risk of bankruptcy).  It's complicated.  But I think NJ reached that point in 2009.  Years and years of debt, massive spending, tax increases, rampant public corruption, etc finally propelled someone like Christie into office.  But he didn't get there promising to fight the unions.  That was only a pleasant surprise.  And the reality is that he really only won because of the weakness of his opponent.  I would argue that Dick Codey was just as awful on economic issues as Jon Corzine but he is a good politician and probably would have won.

35, Republican, NJ-11  

[ Parent ]
Let's remember
That Rudy was not the start of the fixing of NY.  He continued what Dinkins did (Hiring Ray Kelly, Beginning the Times Square clean up, increasing the size of the police force etc.)

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
He did more
than continue what Dinkins did.  He brought a hard nosed law and order attitude that was sorely lacking in City Hall.  Crown Heights was a nightmare and I don't think it would have happened under Rudy.  Did Dinkins crack down on all the quality of life issues that made people feel safer and more confident in municipal gov't?  Not that I recall.

And while Ray Kelly is excellent, it was Bill Bratton that started a lot of the law enforcement policies that are generally credited with the massive drop in crime.

Dinkins was a nice man that was in WAY over his head and was really just incompetent.

35, Republican, NJ-11  

[ Parent ]
Hmmmm...
I think that the Giuliani Administration did, in fact, represent an almost total break with the bureaucratic policies and priorities of the Dinkins Administration.

But even if you could convince me that was not the case, and that Giuliani really was somehow a "continuation" of his predecessor... Dinkins' legacy would still be outweighed, IMHO, by the Crown Heights disaster.

Age 42. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.

[ Parent ]
Let's not remember
whatever Dinkins did was way too little, way too late.

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!
[ Parent ]
If you think NYC would have seen the kind of recovery it did if Dinkins was relected
then you are delusional. Most of the broken window policies that Rudy implemented were actively opposed by Dinkins. He was against Rudy's harsh squeegie men crack down. Dinkins opposed Rudy's policies with regards to the homeless & favored allowing homeless to skirt the loitering laws and sleep on the streets. Dinkins opposed Rudy's welfare reforms. He opposed stock & frisks. So please dont give me this BS that Dinkins started it. Lets remember that a lot Ray Kelly's broken window policies where opposed by Dinkins. It was Rudy who was a partner with the police in implimenting them not like Dinkins who was a deterent to the polices or only half ass supported them.
[ Parent ]
Yes
It is quite interesting to see whose rule is more emulated in most other cities.  Most seem to follow Giuliani's tactics now.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
Yeah
I won't start with Dinkins because I have very harsh words for him with "raxist" being the kindest one.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Well said!


35, Republican, NJ-11  
[ Parent ]
it seems to me they're re-prioritizing
if you have that many illegal immigrants driving cars, it becomes impossible to enforce the law.

if you pull an illegal immigrant over and don't deport them, is that "soft on crime?"

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.

[ Parent ]
Those who break the law
Should be arrested. Period.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
then we need to hire thousands more police officers
there are 12 million illegal immigrants, I believe.  Deporting and arresting them all would cost billions.  

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.
[ Parent ]
At least at this time, illegal entry is --not-- a felony
(unless something has changed relatively recently)

And yet, people who enter illegally typically serve more time "behind bars" than people who commit any other misdemeanor -- with few of the protections of "due process".

One thing I'm not clear on is whether illegal entry has been classified as major or minor misdemeanor. (Minor misdemeanors are typically associated with only fines.)

Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"

[ Parent ]
Ras: Mitt up 13 in WI
http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

MD-6
We're all going to enjoy the liberal's favorite candidate Garagiola losing, if it is to happen.

Delaney reported raising $716,000 from outside contributors over the two-and-a-half month period, and, taking advantage of his wealth, he also gave his campaign $1.25 million. Delaney had $411,000 in the bank as of March 14.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

I think Bartlett will still lose

[ Parent ]
So
At least the liberal's favorite candidate will lose too.
Delaney doesn't seem to be a progressive to me. If it's to be a D, I'd rather have the normal guy.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Liberals like Pooran
not Garagiola.

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem
[ Parent ]
When I mean liberals
I mean the mainstream progressives. DKE types, not DK types.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
That's what I meant.
DKE is head over heels for Pooran, and I'd actually presume low-info DailyKos types would go for Garagiola if they knew of the race at all just because he's more prominent.

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem
[ Parent ]
Santorum statement
http://www.suntimes.com/news/e...

I wonder if this statement will hurt Santorum. He basically says people should vote for Obama if Romney is the GOP nominee. I realize he probably dosen't believe this but is trying to contrast himself with Romney. Still, I don't think it helps Santorum. It appears to be too controversial in a political environment where a lot of Republicans have a visceral dislike of Obama.

well
I guess it hurts him, insofar as his chances at the nomination went from .1% to .09%.  Got him in the news cycle for another day though, so a net wash.
[ Parent ]
It wasn't what he actually said, but still PO'ed a LOT of people
I'm a Santorum voter as are a few less political folks I know. They were unhappy with him for putting his foot in his mouth again and leaving that opening that the media jackals and liars are winning to fill in for him. At this point of the election, you just don't leave that opening. I understand what he's trying to get at, but don't create a campaign ad for Mr. Obama.

Eric Fehrnstrom's comment was just as dumb because it reinforces the untrustworthy Romney view across the board. With advisers like that, no wonder why we're in trouble across the board.

Damn, I wish Daniels ran, or even Pawlenty stayed in.

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

[ Parent ]
I didn't like this statement either


41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.
[ Parent ]
Santorum withdraws Obama endorsement
Santorum release: "I would never vote for Barack Obama over any Republican and to suggest otherwise is preposterous."

Wasn't he the one telling us to vote Obama over Romney?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
IN-SEN
From the fix: Have confirmed that Club for Growth is placing a substantial ad buy in Indiana. Sen. Richard Lugar's (R-Ind.) bad week just got worse.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

I don't understand this
Apparently the buy is going to be $1.8 million. How about the Club for Growth spend $900,000 against Elizabeth Warren and $900,000 against Shelley Berkley instead?

Maybe it's such a substantial sum because Chris Chocola feels a personal connection to the race? Regardless, dumping this much into a GOP primary battle is a waste.

MA-08  

[ Parent ]
MA
Isn't possible because of the deal, and no R deserves to lose as much as Lugar and he brought it upon himself. He still mocks conservatives. The right way to do it is the Hatch way.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
My point is
are they getting the most utility out of their money? I support Mourdock but I don't think this kind of investment in the race is prudent when the money can be spent against Democrats who are considerably to Lugar's left.

MA-08  
[ Parent ]
I won't have a problem with that
If the CfG will also bombard Donnelly after Mourdock wins which is likely.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Good Indiana Site
http://howeypolitics.com/

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
They could put it into TX to help Cruz.....

[ Parent ]
I feel vindicated
Because I kept saying that Mourdock doesn't have to raise much money to win, it;s just that Lugar has all the fundamentals to lose. And that outside conservative groups will help out.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
GOP nomination delegates
Bloomberg busts the myth that the GOP nomination is dragging on longer because of the new rules, shows that Mitt's delegate lead would have been smaller under the old rules used in 2008. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

New Fl Senate Seats
It'll be interesting to see how the Fl. Supreme Ct. deals with the new Senate Maps, will be a good predictor of how they deal with the Congressional Maps working their way up from the trial level.

This is a better map than the first passed map.  That said there are  couple of seats that are for sure violations of FDF amendments.

District 8 goes from Ocala to the southern end of Daytona and south along the coast. Not compact, got Ocala National Forest acting as a 30 mile buffer b/n the western and eastern ends. You could fix it by combining Ocala and Gainesville but would probably end up with a Dem district. Fl Supr Ct may not like the Daytona Beach split.

District 13 combines from the Intracoastal to with a funky hook into  Orlando, with a seat that looks handcrafted  for Andy Gardiner. Compactness issues.

District 39 goes from Liberty City neighborhood of Miami to Immokalee, picking up Clewiston along the way. Having lived in both Clewiston and Miami can't think of two areas that have nothing in common. Pretty obvious attempt of packing minority areas together.

District 19. I personally don't like the way Dist 19 looks going from Tampa to  South St. Pete crossing the bay to get parts of Bradenton. It's a black seats so the court may be ok with it.

If the Florida Supremes don't like the map they get draw a new Senate map. To my knowledge the Senate didn't do a functional analysis of how different maps would perform like the court heavily suggested.

Thanks
for your post and here are some thoughts.

1st Dist 19 more or less maintains its current shape.  Its only 35% and while no minority group is +50% it was not objected to by Supreme court.  Hillsborough is a VRA V county and the court's opinion specifically mentioned retrorgression issues.  So if the court did not object 1st time I think this seat gets a pass.

2nd the Orlando seat has been modified as to not protect a specific incumbent.  He can still move but the jag the court complained about has been adjusted. I think its more about minority majority then compactness here.

The Ocala seat does get to the heart of PDF. Should it move South or East or West?  Its not perfectly compact but should the whole Ocala forest area be in one seat? There are communities on either side of it that have the COI thing going for it. So then if assume Ocala forest area east and west should be in one senate seat do you attach it to beach community or Orlanda area suburbs?  Neither is a perfect COI. So this is how you split the baby type situation. to make it compact you divide the Ocala park is half and does that work?

[ Parent ]
Birthers going after...Romney
http://www.newser.com/story/14...

An R write-in candidate here in CA is suing SoS Bowen to verify that MyManMitt was actually born in America.

They doubt his eligibility given his family comes from a Mormon Colony en Mexico. Gotta give it to em, they're consistent.

19-Cubano, R, CA-38
Turning L.A. County Red


Making CA a Golden State

Well...
He was born in a third world county. It just happens that Detroit is part of America.
[ Parent ]
I don't approve of this.
I didn't like it when they went after Obama without merit, and I don't approve of them going after Romney without merit.

And what I don't get is why they never went after McCain, as he WAS born in another country. It doesn't matter though as they are all natural born US citizens.

Birthers, like truthers, just need to go away

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Two types of birthers
One group thinks candidate X was born outside America.

Another based on extremely poor legal theories think that candidates whose PARENTS were not citizens at the candidate X was born in the US aren't eligible because "Natural Born Citizen" doesn't mean "Citizen born in the US" in their mind.

I'm not a fan of the 2nd group at all, and in regards to the 1st, where's the proof Obama was born outside Hawaii? Burden of proof is on the accuser.

It distracts from the real problem. Obama's policies and gross incompetence as an administrator.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

[ Parent ]
so
Take me whose parents were born in OKC but was born overseas due to Dad being deployed there.

The first group wouldn't want me running for President but would have no problems if I had a kid who wanted to.

That second group is fine with me running for President but if I had a kid wouldn't want my kid to run for President.


41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Shelley Berkley
http://politicalwire.com/archi...

Senator Heller is one lucky man.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Very much so.


21, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Rom 8:38-39    
[ Parent ]
ouch
that's not going to be helpful

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.
[ Parent ]
Missouri caucus
Take 2 of St Charles county is NOT tomorrow; it is at a date and time to be announced later. (in April)

There aren't that many Republicans in St Louis City; I'm thinking it won't be much larger than the largest township meeting in St Louis County last Saturday. That still would have been way too many for their previously planed location.

Jackson County (KC) : Yes, that has a very good chance of setting the new record for caucus attendees at a single site. (968 is the number to beat from St Charles)


41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

Just saw the update
and apparently will be the 10th?  Maybe?

It does have to be something this year right?  They should have muddled through last saturday.

I should comment on Cass county as well but I have been thinking that all along.  Its a feat to really line up people to go to district and state conventions.  You have to really be organized.  

[ Parent ]
April 10th; yup
official announcement was this morning.

Here's the link:

http://www.stltoday.com/news/l...

That is a Tuesday (I had expected a Saturday to be chosen)

7 PM start; at the St Charles Convention Center

"GOP State Chairman David Cole will serve as temporary chairman instead of Eugene Dokes, the county GOP committee chairman."

Good call, if there's anybody everybody will trust as the temp chair it is the GOP State Chairman.

"Recording devices will be permitted, the state party said"; also a good call.


41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
NY AD-146
http://www.buffalonews.com/cit...

It's just lovely to watch this Albany style politicking. Silver and Kearns.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

I saw Jim Cooper speak today.
He addressed the opening session of youth legislature.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
TN Dem Chair given 33% pay raise
Many Democrats are questioning the raise, in light of the party's failures under his watch.

http://www.tennessean.com/arti...

33, R, IN-09

Good WI news department
Jim Holperin retiring. R-leaning toward district.

http://www.postcrescent.com/ar...

RGA going up with a big ad buy.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Swiftkey entered this "toward"


24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Holperin Retiring Is The Best News I've Heard All Month
This definitely plays into my theory that WI Dems will take back the WI State Senate during the recalls, and then promptly lose it again in November.  
[ Parent ]
MI poll
Obama led by 6 percent, with 49 percent favoring the Democratic incumbent and 43 percent supporting Romney, the likely Republican nominee.

http://www.mlive.com/politics/...

The last poll done by Marketing Resource Group in September showed them tied at 44%.

Obama and Gov. Snyder both saw their approval ratings increase to 50%.  

Governor Snyder, Mr. Popular!
50/36 approval. Obama only up 6 isn't great for him at all.
These numbers suggest that Rs hold the legislature easily.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
huh?
How does a poll that shows improvement of Snyder's approval ratings indicate that Republicans will maintain control of the legislature?  

[ Parent ]
Yep
I don't think they mean an automatic hold of the State House, but Snyder being popular again does not hurt their cause.  I expect the Republicans to lose seats, but still hold the majority.

The interesting thing is this poll is the majority support for the Emergency Financial Manager law, right to work, and a plurality supporting a new law prohibiting union dues from being collected by school districts.

http://twitter.com/#!/iMIpolitics  

27, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
House/laws
I think there's a decent chance the Dems will win back the House.  It's not guaranteed but they'll probably at least gain seats.  I've been feeling more confident since the GOP primaries started and think Obama will win MI by a bigger margin than I originally thought which would help other Dems too.

On the laws you mentioned, a lot may have to do with how much people understand the issues.  For example, if RTW is phrased as "Should people be forced to join a union to get a job," then I can understand people voting to support RTW.  If it's phrased as "If the majority of workers vote to have a unionized workplace, should the minority of workers get to overrule the majority," you might get a different result. Another poll reflected this difference.

An EPIC-MRA poll last April found similar support, with 54 percent saying they would vote in favor of a RTW ballot proposal, or were leaning toward voting in favor of it.

But support for RTW dropped to 43 percent when voters were told that workers who choose not to belong to unions or pay dues in a closed shop still receive all the benefits of a union contract.

http://www.mlive.com/politics/...

[ Parent ]
Right to Work
As I have said, right to work is one of those things that have to be very carefully worded or the pushers of the issue can easily lose control of it.

The EMF law is popular because its turning into a Detroit vs. the rest of Michigan battle.  This is the wrong way to oppose that law.

27, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Well
Snyder being popular, not only improving plus Obama only up 6 and generic state R way overperforms the presidential ticket, coupled with a decent gerrymander = holding the legislature.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Downplaying
You seem to be downplaying Obama's improved numbers while overemphasizing Snyder's.  A 6% win would be double what Kerry won MI by in 2004.  Obama having approval of 50% or higher and winning the state should help other Dems.  I'm not saying the Dems will absolutely win the House but there's definitely a chance they will.  
[ Parent ]
A "chance"
That is about it.
The state legislature is pretty tied to Snyder and the gerrymander. Snyder went from very unpopular, to pretty popular.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Snyder a small factor if any in 2012
The control of the legislature will largely be determined in the same areas it has been the last three elections. Rural Michigan ticket splitters.

Districts that flipped in 2010.

Mostly Urban - 1
Mostly White Collar Suburban - 2
Mostly Blue Collar Suburban - 5
Mostly Rural - 11

6 of those rural districts were in North Michigan.



MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

[ Parent ]
The
GOP leadership being popular helps a ton.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Disagree
You forget to mention that the previous poll had Romney and Obama tied, which wasn't very believable even during Obama's down days.  I think the +6 is on the very low end of what most pollsters would find right now.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
Agree
The Real Clear Politics average has Obama leading by 14%.  So this poll would, indeed, be at the lower end of recent polls.

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

[ Parent ]
Romney cracks 40 percent for first time in Gallup tracking poll
http://www.gallup.com/poll/153...

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast
Toomey praises Romney, but does not endorse
http://nationaljournal.com/201...

The silence about Santorum speaks pretty loudly towards who Toomey is voting for in April.  I expect his supporters to be out there seeking revenge for Santorum's Specter love.

27, Republican, PA-6

Heitkamp on health care: past vs. present
http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

First Berkley, now Heitkamp. Not a good day for Democratic senate candidates.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Americans for Prosperity
launches ad buy against Kerrey

http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

Pretty mediocre, I wonder how they failed to even mention he's been living in NY when they use the quote about him moving farther left healthcare. I think the average voter needs a little more context on where "here" is but maybe I'm just nitpicking

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem

Forgot to mention
the buy is for approx $250K

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem
[ Parent ]
As expected
Kathleen Rice decided not to be curb stomped by Peter King.
http://www.nydailynews.com/blo...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Not Surprised
Thought King was a lock anyway.

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
Cook/Rothenberg Race Ratings NY
Below are their race ratings and the PVI based on 2008 results. I've included any district that is +6 or less, as they rate one of them.

http://rothenbergpoliticalrepo...
http://cookpolitical.com/chart...

1: R+1 Democratic: Toss/Lean D
2: R+2 Republican: Likely R/Likely R
3: D+1 Democratic: Safe D/Safe D
4: D+2 Democratic: Likely D/Safe D
11: R+5 Republican: Lean R/Lean R
17: D+5 Democratic: Safe D/Safe D
18: R+1 Republican: Toss/Lean R
19: E      Republican: Toss/Safe R
20: D+6 Democratic: Safe D/Safe D
21: R+1 Democratic: Toss/Lean D
22: R+3 Republican: Likely R/Lean R
23: R+3 Republican: Likely R/Safe R
24: D+4 Republican: Lean D/Toss
25: D+6 Democratic: Lean D/Likely D
27: R+8 Democratic: Lean R/Lean R

Rothenberg considers Gibson safe, Reed safe, and McCarthy safe, while putting seats that have a stronger lean in play. I can't figure out how King, who has outperformed his district more than Israel is in danger but Israel and McCarthy, for Rothenberg, are not.

Slaughter is in danger, while Lowey and Tonko are not. I don't think any of them are, but Cook even puts her seat in the Lean D category. I don't think they are basing this on quality of opponent, because King doesn't have an official opponent yet while Israel has one that raised nearly $100k since December 31.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

I like the GOP
candidates up against Bishop-Owen-Slaughter so I put those seats like tossup-tossup-lean D by a nose for those seats.

Due to the lateness of this map I think CD2-CD3-CD4 plus Gibson, Hanna, Higgins and Hayworth should be fine.  

Maffaei will be tough for Buerkle.  I rate that seat a tossup.  

We need Collins V Hochul for that seat to be lean R.

[ Parent ]
Opponents
Here's what we know:

1: Randy Altschuler and George Demos, Republicans
Should make a race of it.

2: No Democrat, but let's make it Likely Republican anyway.

3. Stephen LaBate
He's raised a little money, but hardly a top tier candidate to beat Steve Israel.

4. No Republican, but Cook has it as Lean Democrat. So I shouldn't complain about NY-2.

11. Democrat Mark Murphy
He's a former congressional staffer and has yet to file an FEC report.

17. Republican Rye Supervisor Joseph Carvin
Just getting in and starting late.

18. Democrats  
Cortlandt Councilman Dr. Rich Becker
Wappingers Falls Mayor Matt Alexander
Tuxedo Park Mayor Tom Wilson
Duane Jackson,
Anne Jacobs Moultrie
Hayworth has a lot of challengers. One should give her a good race.

19. Democrat Julian Schreibman
He's the former chairman of the Ulster County Democratic Committee and is starting late.

20. Republican Bob Dieterich
Not that anyone expects to challenge Tonko anyway.

21. Republican Matt Doheny
Promises to be a barn burner.

22. Democrat Dan Lamb
He runs the Binghamton district office of Democratic Rep. Maurice Hinchey. Also just getting in.

23.Democrats Nate Schinagowa and Leslie Danks Burke.
Also a late start

24. Democrat Dan Maffei
Buerkle is in for a tough one.

25: Republican Maggie Brooks
Late start. Good recruit.

27: No candidate yet
Obviously Republicans need to get someone who can win here.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
NY2 Rice thought about it for a NY minute
And the Nassau DA is staying put. King goes to safe R I think
[ Parent ]
Bellavia in NY-27
He's announced his candidacy, which means a Republican is in the race.

Representative on Congress: Rep. Wagner, MO
[ Parent ]
Jon Corzine
Big chance he'll be buddies with Blago pretty soon. http://mobile.bloomberg.com/ne...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Morning Roundup March 23, 2012 | 98 comments
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