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Afternoon Roundup March 23, 2012

by: rdelbov

Fri Mar 23, 2012 at 17:00:00 PM EDT


President

Wisconsin: Romney is ahead of Santorum by 46 to 33 percent in this poll. Gingrich and Paul are at 7 and 8 percent in this poll. Maybe that should be Paul and Gingrich as Newt continues to drop. The Wisconsin primary is in the 1st week of April.

Michigan: Romney is behind the President in his home state by 49-43 in this poll.  One of our posters brought this to my attention and I thank him for that. Governor Synder's approval numbers have also ticked up in this poll to 50%. 

Gingrich: Newt is fighting on in Louisiana. He vows to continue on until the Convention. He takes a shot at Santorum for saying a second term of Obama would be the same as a Romney 1st term. 

Bachmann: Talk about a name from the past. Can anyone remember the Bachmann campaign for President? Apparently the people her campaign owes nearly one million dollars will remember. Most of the debt is to media firms and her campaign manager. One can argue that anything the manager was paid was too much but that is a debate for another day. One hopes the Bachmann campaign will not be like the 1984 John Glenn campaign which never paid off the s 2.4 million in debt it owed. That debt was finally written off in 2008.

Perry: On a happier note Rick Perry is using leftover money from his Presidential fund to start a Super PAC. The FEC has okayed a transfer of funds to this Super PAC and he is certainly going to mine his Rolodex for large donations.  

Senate

Nevada: The House Ethics committee is investigating Shelly Berkley. She has introduced numerous bills that would directly affect her husband's business. He owns a medical company and Berkley's bills would increase reimbursement rates for all businesses that here similar to her husband's. The bills, however, were quite detailed and so specific to particular medical reimbursements that it raised qustions as to her motives.

rdelbov :: Afternoon Roundup March 23, 2012
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A MO Caucus update
Today I was talking with someone who attended the Creve Couer caucus chaos in St Louis County.  From what she said, the margin was by one vote for Romney over Santorum (I think 54-53), in part because the caucus chair, who was a Santorum backer, could not vote.

Representative on Congress: Rep. Wagner, MO

yup; caucus chair only votes in the event of a tie
It came up during the counting of our group in Maryland Heights as the counter was about to include the caucus chair when one of our members reminded the counter of that rule.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Santorum in Missouri
http://www.heraldextra.com/new...

I think Santorum is counting on taking 35-45 delegates in Missouri

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
that's a reasonable range
But I'm still thinking that prior to the results coming in that the Santorum campaign were thinking they were going to sweep based on the Feburary primary and they only downsized their expectations here a few days ago.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Reasonable?
There are 49 delegates at stake and Santorum is counting on getting 70-85% of them. Is he getting 70-85% of the vote in the caucuses so far?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
any congressional district he gets majority of delegates of
will send their entire slate to Santorum. (This includes the Santorum members of the uncommitted slates many caucuses sent.)

Most likely districts for that to happen are #4, #6, and #8.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
more predictions
In districts with strong Santorum plurality but short of majority; the initial preferred partner is Gingrich. (Throw in 1 Gingrich delegate whose second choice is Santorum) However as I think Gingrich came in a distant 4th in every single congressional district, there won't be many districts where a Santorum Gingrich combination forms a majority.

Where that isn't the case, but Santorum has more than 40%, they'll probably try to coalition with whoever the second place finisher in delegates in the district was. (In most cases that would result in 2 Santorum; 1 for the second place [either Romney or Paul])

Much less than 40% and they may settle for three way split to avoid a shut out.


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
NH Gov. Vetoes House Map
NH
Can they override?  

Any chance of a compromise.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
NH
Yes, the Republicans have a ~3/4 majority in both houses, so they have room to spare.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
would the NH Supreme Court throw out the map if overriden
A lot of state supreme courts have been throwing out legislative maps for non county integrity and based on the governor's remarks it appears that city plays that role in NH.
(Specifically him mentioning large numbers of cities not in their own house districts)


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
I'm actually surprised that Lynch
signed the state Senate gerrymander.

[ Parent ]
The House One
Is far worse - both from a legal, COI and political standpoint. The median seat in the senate map is still around 53% Obama.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Pete Hegseth on Hugh Hewitt
He sounds confident, but I doubt he'd be on the radio if he didn't. He claimed that the PPP poll is from a Democratic firm and that his internals tell a different story.

I don't think he has a shot, but I find it interesting he'd on national radio. The only current senate challenger I'm aware that Hewitt has had on is Josh Mandel. Of course, two years ago Hewitt was pushing Jane Norton as "the next senator from Colorado."

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


WI
Interesting... Romney seems to run very well in the Midwesr. Also, sorry for my decreased traffic, but I'm busy with Youth in Government right now. My bill got voted down, so I'm also not in a very good move.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

Extended thoughts on NY races
I think the following candidates are top tier

Altschuler NY1
Donheny NY21
Maffai NY24
Brooks NY25

I think the top candidates put those seats into play. I am not impressed with candidates against King, Israel, Grimm and McCarthey.  Ditto for Gibson, Hanna and Haysworth.  

The late map has made it hard to come up with challengers.


Mostly Agree
I wouldn't call Altschuler Top Tier, but I agree with the others.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Top tier?
If someone who ended last year with nearly $600k C-O-H isn't top tier, then Republicans won't have anyone top tier running. Joseph Carvin is a good candidate for NY-17, even though he won't beat Lowey.

Challengers are mostly getting in late and that's going to hurt them in both parties.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
top tier candidates
i don't think that you can compare Tier 1 candidates with the amount of money they can raise.

2 prime examples: Deborah Honeycutt, and Elwyn Tinklenberg.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


[ Parent ]
Top Tier candidates
A top tier candidate is one with:

*A good resume
*Good fundraising
*A good fit for the district

Doing decently well in all 3 categories makes one top tier IMO.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
that depends on the district
Take Mr. Tinkelnberg for instance.

1) Able to raise millions of dollars for a house race

2) former city counselman and mayor of the 3rd largest city in the district, and former state transportation commissioner.

That clearly puts him within your standards of "top tier", but he lost to a very..... polarizing..... individual in a Dem wave year.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


[ Parent ]
MN-6
This was a district a Democrat should've had no shot in, because of its Republican lean. Bush won the district 57%-42%. I think you're judging a good candidate by whether they won. That certainly makes someone a good candidate, but someone can be a good candidate even if they don't win. Craig Huey was a great candidate but couldn't win in that district.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Ricky Gill in CA-9
Gill has no resume and that certainly hurts him, but he's a good candidate.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
money they can raise
The reverse is true. Anyone who can't raise money isn't a top tier candidate. Thus, raising money is one essential quality for someone who can win. Altschuler lost by 0.4. The only better candidates the Republicans had in 2010 are now call incumbents.

I don't know that much about NY politics and I agree that in California I wouldn't designate everyone who can raise money as a good candidate. There are some candidates I feel are mediocre (e.g. Mark Takano), but he has a shot. Brian Whelan hasn't raised anything and isn't a good candidate.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
in math terms
I would say that A and B have a correlation, but are not linearly dependent.

Another way to view this would be a Venn diagram, where the overlap means a "tier one candidate"

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


[ Parent ]
NY-01
You are right that Altschuler has good money behind him.

But I really don't think Eastern Suffolk is the place for a very Conservative Republican.

That being said, It's not impossible for him to win, I just doubt he will, and even if he does I can't see him holding on to the seat.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
Since Otis Pike (D-Grumman)
No one's been able to loak down NY01  

[ Parent ]
NY-Sen: Maragos compares Turner to Obama
http://www.politicker.com/2012...

Really, dude?

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


CO--Great recap of the most contentious state-level races.
http://www.coloradostatesman.c...

A proud and scared business owner

Seems like all of those competitive seats
seats featured are Dem-leaning.  

[ Parent ]
That was close to
my point earlier on CO.  There is a near direct relationship in CO between party registration and who wins legislative races. So the seats that will decide who wins control in 2012 seem like D seats because they went for Bennett and obama but by registration they favor the Rs.

So the 29 CO house seats where the GOP has a nice edge, +5%R, they have a very clear shot at winning those seats.  So to get to 33 house seats there are 7-8 seats where the GOP edge is 1 to 4% by registration.  In the State senate we see a 1/2 seats where the GOP edge is 1 to 4 % among active voters.  

In 2008 these seats were Obama seats. In 2010 they went, in some cases, narrowly for Bennett. Of course in legislative or other statewide races in 2010 they went GOP.  


[ Parent ]
Handicapping The Congressional Races (Ill)
http://www.nbcchicago.com/blog...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

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