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Political Roundup for March 27, 2012

by: Ryan_in_SEPA

Tue Mar 27, 2012 at 07:00:00 AM EDT


Happy Tuesday... with Obamacare SCOTUS hearings taking all the headlines, there is not much to report today. Hopefully this afternoon will bring us more news.

POTUS

Gingrich: Newt is in it for the long hall.  He intends to stay in the race until Romney gets a majority of delegates and is open to playing a role at the convention if necessary.  It is unclear what exactly Newt intends to do as he is suffering on the fundraising side and is getting little attention.

More Newt: Like someone who raises taxes but spins it as something else, Newt's campaign seems to be busy spinning the $50 fee to receive a photo with Newt as a nominal donation.  Yea Newt... $50 is a nominal donation.  I am waiting for his team to start charging for parking.

Romney:  In a sign the Romney Ad Death Star might be getting some repairs or just does not see the point of shooting ads all over Wisconsin, the ad spending in Wisconsin has narrowed to a 4 to 1 lead for Romney.  Maybe this goes with the whispers I am hearing of Romney making a really big play in Pennsylvania to finish off Santorum.

Congress

Indiana-Senate:  Will Indiana really be competitive if Lugar loses the primary?  Without a doubt it will be more competitive than if he won, but I am not sure it will be that competitive at all.

CA-10: One of the most bizarre ballot challenges ever features Republican Congressman Jeff Denham challenging the occupational listing of his Democratic challenger, Jose Hernandez, a former NASA astronaut.  Denham is challenging Hernandez's listing as an Astronaut/Scientist/Engineer.

CA-26: Linda Parks appears to have the best shot at becoming the first Independent member of the House since Bernie Sanders moved to the Senate.  Parks is mounting an unconventional Independent campaign under California's top-two primary system.  Under this system, there could be no Democrat on the ballot come November if she and a Republican win the primary.

Hispanics: Republicans in the Senate led by Senator Marco Rubio are pushing for a modified version of the DREAM Act to relieve some tensions that have developed with hispanic voters.  I am not sure how well this will go as we have little details, but its interesting to see Rubio actually pushing something for once.

States

PA-Senate: Republican State Senator Jane Orie was convicted of 14 of the 24 charges she faced in a political corruption trial that seems to have turned into a saga.  Supposedly Melissa Hart is measuring the drapes of her old office as she has repeatedly been rumored as a candidate to run in this dark red seat.
Ryan_in_SEPA :: Political Roundup for March 27, 2012
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Political Roundup for March 27, 2012 | 142 comments
CA-10
I have to say that I am surprised by this. I had never hears that you could only list current occupations. Does this mean that when/if the presidential circus comes around to California, Romney's name will have (unemployed) next to his name? This seems like a pretty dumb move.

That being said, is Denhem really that scared of Hernandez. My head is telling me no, but this charade hints at maybe.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

Quite amusing
I am not sure the purpose of listing occupations, but fighting over it sounds even more bizarre to me.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
i get the listing occupations deal
And I don't think it is a bad idea, as it gives some context to races which you know nothing about the candidates. And I can even see challenging what the candidates use, provided its wrong. But challenging something that is accurate because it is not their CURRENT job is not okay, IMO.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
Understandable
I could see this being important in low level races that nobody knows about but have a specific speciality that might be important.  

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
Primaries in Israel today
Kadima, the largest party in the Knesset, holds its primaries. The elections are between current leader and former Foreign affairs minister Tzipi Livny (b. 1958) and former IDF chief of the general staff and defence minister Shaul Mofaz (b. 1948). The party is not doing well in the polls, Mofaz claims its Livny's fault whilst Livny claims Mofaz and other members in the party have thrown a wrench in the works and did everything they can to hurt her standing.
It is widely assumed that we'll see retirements coming out of these elections.
I expect
Mofaz to romp. Livni only won by a hair last time after all the corruption and shenanigans. She lost many MK supporters, some very important ones like Aflalo and lost many local political warlords. I don't see her even coming close.
Of course, in any case the party is irrelevant at the moment and very unpopular.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
It does seem that way
Though, as you've said, the local warlords (known as "pokdim", a lot of them Arabs or Druze) will eventually decide.
[ Parent ]
Kablanei Kolot
"Vote contractors", literally.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Update
By 6 pm only 20.06% participation rate. That's not 20% of the voting age population in Israel that's 20% of the 96K party members. At least 4 more hours to go (last time the party extended the polls closing time and I expect the same today) but it is safe to assume there will less than 39k voters in the end of the day (that's the number of votes counted last primaries 3 years ago).
[ Parent ]
Newt
At this point, I don't think it matters weather or not he stays in for the remaining states.
I'm not seeing even the margin of Gingrich votes making a difference in Wisconsin.

(The only possible exception of PA if PA law would force the delegates of dropped out candidates off the ballot as Santorum is pretty much going to have to tell supporters in a lot of districts there to vote him on the top line and the Gingrich delegate on the bottom line. As to Texas, that is not until late May and that's late enough for his support to collapse there.)



41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

PA delegate situation
There are no "delegates of dropped out candidates on the ballot.  There are no delegates of any candidate on the ballot. All the delegates run as individuals with no indication of who they support.  Usually the better known names or the people withgood ballot position win.
[ Parent ]
Exactly
The delegate situation is quite difficult for Santorum as the bulk of the big names are behind Romney or are connected to overt Romney supporters.  There is a great chance Santorum's strongest districts will select delegates officially or unofficially behind Romney.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
Like Phil English
in PA5.  The Former congressman is a shoo in for a delegate spot in the GOP primary.  Romney support and that seat with its socially conservative voters should be a Santorum hotspot.

In PA its the party officials and elected officials who get these spots.  They rode the Santorum train downhill in 2006 and they will want a new horse.  Not to mention its always better to back a winner--nomination winner that is.  

[ Parent ]
Exactly
There are several districts where the top Republican name is a Romney supporter even though Santorum has a chance at the popular vote there.  Again Santorum's incompetently ran campaign is going to cost him his home state.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
PA Delegates
The delegates are not listed by whom they support, but just their name and location of residence.  In about 14 of the districts, Romney has the biggest names on the ballot including congressmen, state legislators and county officials.  Essentially the only way you really can communicate your delegates to voters is by having poll workers outside each polling place handing out literature for supporters listing your delegates.  People will likely vote for the name they recognize unless instructed to do otherwise.

Does Santorum have the ground game to cover all these polling places?  I have already been asked to help Romney in PA-6, PA-7, and PA-13.

27, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Hart
I know that this kind of thing has occurred before, but it still seems strange. I wonder how common it has been in the post-WWII era.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
Hart
Well, if you're talking about former congressmen running for State Senate, I know that it's happened twice in OH in the last 15 years. If you're talking specifically about congressmen, who were previously state senators, running for their old State Senate seats, then none come to mind.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17
[ Parent ]
Jeb Bradley
is a good example of the former. He won a state senate special election in 2009 and now he's the majority leader.

MA-08  
[ Parent ]
I was talking about
officeholders or former officeholders (especially members of Congress) running for a position lower than their highest office previously achieved. If you want to go to local races, current Memphis Mayor A.C. Wharton (D) used to be Mayor of Shelby County. Historically, the instance that comes most readily to mind is that of John Quincy Adams' tenure in the U.S. House of Representatives after his presidency.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
One guy who took a giant step down
Gordon Humphrey retiring from the Senate to serve in the NH State Senate.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
a big one
Jerry Brown was governor of California, and later ran for Mayor of Oakland.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
Others I know of
former WI-1 Congressman Peter Barca is now the Minority Leader in the Wisconsin State Assembly. Former Congressman Bill Schuette of Michigan served in the Michigan State Senate after leaving Congress and is now Michigan Attorney General.  

41, R, NE-1.
[ Parent ]
One of the giants
ended up backwards, so to speak, and that Claude Pepper.  He lost a US senate seat in 1952 to George Smathers.  When Dade county got their second house seat, in 1962, Pepper moved into the house.  He had a long and noteable career in the house.  
[ Parent ]
I thought about him too
I was actually going to mention him in my post, but I had to go do something, and I didn't have time to write it out. I remember the tail end of his House career-he died in 1989 just as I was really ramping up my interest in politics. I remember well the special election for his seat that produced Ileana Ros-Lehtinen as the winner.

41, R, NE-1.
[ Parent ]
Jerry Brown too
His journey does seem like a long strange trip.

 

Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"

[ Parent ]
J. Wolcott Wadsworth Jr.
was another great who went to the House after the Senate. One of the few who made it all the way through the depression while being largely against the New Deal.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
Guy Molinari gave up a House seat
to run for Staten Island Boro President in 1989. He ran for the post AFTER the Supreme Court declared the Board of Estimate unconstitutional and a year after he was elected NYC Charter revision made the office no more than a cerimonial post. Molinari knew all this going into the race! But his run was mainly about Staten Island succession from NYC and felt running was a way to come home and help SI (while at the same time opening the Congressional seat up for his daughter Susan).
[ Parent ]
Rubi/DREAM Act
So It sounds like they are going to offer up the watered down version of The DREAM Act Romney and Gingrich said they could support, possibly as a plank of Romney's platform.  Will that help them?  I doubt it, but we shall see.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
It might if they actually pledged to support it and carry through on it
I think many Hispanics are souring on Obama over his refusal to do anything but dangle the carrot of the DREAM Act. They want to see action, and they're not getting it from an administration they thought was on their side
[ Parent ]
I doubt it
They may not love that Obama hasn't signed any of their key legislation, but I doubt they move to the Republicans due to that.  Romney's rhetoric on Immigration is very harsh, and I don't think supporting a watered down version of a bill that Obama has been pushing for a while will cause a large amount of them to move to the right.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
Maybe not
But if Republicans pass immigration legislation they can say that:

1. they succeeded where Obama and Pelosi failed.
2. they clearly aren't xenophobic and there is legislation they will support.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
CA26
IMO will come down to Strickland-Brownley.  Its geography.  The D there is the only LA county candidate.  She will get a lot of support from her home area.  Enough to beat Parks.  
LA County
That isn't an advantage in a district that has none of LA County in it.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
Only a small fraction of Los Angeles County is in the seat
Just Westlake Village, which is incorporated over the Los Angeles County line, but also has a portion that is part of the City of Thousand Oaks.
[ Parent ]
Westlake
You're right. It's in both counties. I assumed it was the Ventura portion, but I see that some of the LA city is in the district. I'd guess it's less than 5% of the district population and not people who have any loyalty to an LA county candidate.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
No that was my bad
as I thought that little jag north of Westlake area was LA county.

I can rule out LA county affect.  Not sure of the % but its small and that's a good thing for the GOP.

I think I was also confused because I am thinking of Strickland's senate seat.  Surely more of that is in LA county now?

Surely I can to get to 50-50 on this matter?  Not 50% but my memory recall.  

[ Parent ]
Links
Ron Paul: Dropping Out is 'Silly Question'
http://www.nationaljournal.com...

Generic Congressional Vote
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...
GOP up in two polls this week

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Pretty clear
That the GOP keeps the house even if Obama wins reelection.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Most Likely
I think as of right now Obama wins re-election, Democrats gain 15ish in the House and Republicans gain a net 1-2 in the Senate.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
Far Too Optimistic for The Dems...
Current trajectory is that the D's will be lucky to pick up half a dozen in the House, and should lose the Senate (at least narrowly).  
[ Parent ]
Agree
I see the House as a low single digit Dem gain as of now, the Senate looks on the cusp of R control, 2 or 3 seat gain.

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
We'll Agree to Disagree
I would not be shocked by a pickup of 5-10 in the House, I just expect a little bigger as of now.

I could also see them losing the Senate.  King Angus becomes very important in a close election then.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

[ Parent ]
Redistricting kills you
Under the old lines, I'd predict 203-207 seats if Romney won and 215-220 seats for the Democrats if Obama won. Republicans control an inordinate number of E-+2 seats that'd be evened out with a 15 seat swing. The GOP did very well in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Texas, Georgia, and a bunch of other states. People complain that Republicans didn't go for the maximum in places like Tennessee, but they pretty much secured the seats they won last cycle.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
I think we probably break even or pick up a couple seats in the senate.
But I have the same opinion about the house, gaining the majority this year will be hard.

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem
[ Parent ]
That's Been Clear For a Couple of Months Now
Dems should not lull themselves into a false sense of security that Obama's reelection means a vote for the "Obama Agenda" - if the voters really wanted the D Agenda, they'd put the D's back in control of Congress.

As it's very likely to go the other way (R's keep the House, pick up the Senate), it should be abundantly clear that the voters are not voting "for" Obama, but are instead purposely voting "for" gridlock, which will mean no tax cuts, and no spending cuts.

Expect the U.S. to be bankrupt by 2014.  

[ Parent ]
Exactly
We have said this for months.  Voters have been bit enough over the last decade by those wanting to do supposed "change" from the right and left to know they don't want change and remain in lala land where entitlements continue, taxes remain low of the level of expenditure, discretionary spending is the only problem, and its the evil politicians fault.  At the end, those who we elect reflect us as a people as we are in a representative system.  Obviously that says something about the average citizen.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
I think
It says a whole lot more about gerrymanders and a 23D-10R Senate cycle...

Democrat, NC-11
[ Parent ]
You're wrong on this point.
If you look at 2012 as a one-off election, you can argue the results stipulated above will be caused by the tilted playing-field. However, if you look at it in historical context, I think it's clear that there's an unconscious preference for divided government, and has been since 1968. In that time, if I'm figuring things correctly, Democrats held the trifecta (house, senate and Presidency) for 8 years; 4 under Carter, and 2 each under Clinton and Obama. On the other hand, Republicans held the trifecta for a total of 4 years, from 2002 to 2006. This means that, during that same time, 32 out of 44 years saw the federal government divided between the two parties. I'm not going to speculate as to what this does or doesn't mean about entitlements, but there is a clear revealed preference for divided government among the U.S. electorate.

Let me also say that I don't see demographics changing that all that much. I've heard demographically-driven "emerging majority" arguments from both sides, and I simply don't buy it. Take the Democratic argument about the rise of Latino voters creating a permanent Democratic majority. This assumes that: (A) Latinos continue to become a larger slice of the pie as time moves on, which is a reasonable assumption, (B) Latinos remain wedded to the Democrats' progressive politics in perpetuity (questionable), (C) Latinos eexhibit monolithic racial block voting (far from proven) and (D) The issue mix for Democrats and Republicans remains relatively constant for the next ten, twenty or fifty years, depending on how long this Democratic triumphalism is supposed to last. In short, it's based on a very shaky foundation of assumptions. Barring a genuine realigning election-which I argue we haven't seen in our lifetime and are unlikely to ever see again-I think there will pretty much be two parties, one on the right and one on the left, and they'll trade who owns what part of government for a good long time.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.

[ Parent ]
I Somewhat Agree
Divided Government happens alot, especially as those "in the middle" can never decide which way to go for too long, BUT that being said, the playing field IS decidly tilted this year.

The Senate can't be helped, as Democrats won a ton of seats in 2006, but Republicans I would say redistricted much better than last time, giving themselves a much lower ceiling but a much, much higher floor in the house, very smart of them.  So yes, I could accept that a lot of voters like Divided Government, but also realize that yes the playing field is still tilted this year.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

[ Parent ]
They aren't the determining factors.
Sure, redistricting and the senate playing field matter, but why, for example, is the senate field so tilted? Because the public was reacting against a period of undivided Republican government, and a lot of Democrats either got washed in with the tide (Tester, Webb) or avoided tough challenges in Republican seats (Bill Nelson). Also, I would argue that Ben Nelson's retirement was at least partially forced by actions he took during undivided Democratic government, which he wouldn't have taken in an atmosphere with partisan division.
As to redistricting, I do think Republicans drew some good maps, but most house ratings' analysts argue it's kind of a net wash. It makes Republicans' gains harder to erode-particularly in Pennsylvania and the south-but I'm not sure how much that would matter in a 2006 or 2008 environment. Would Republicans have kept the house in 2006 with post-2010 maps? I doubt it.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.
[ Parent ]
to me
It's more about the dynamics of actual elections.  The Presidency is a "one on one", which can often trump the mood of which party the country might prefer.  In 1996, perhaps America wanted more Republican rule, but they liked Clinton better than Dole.  

Also, imagine if Obama were up for re-election in 2010.  You are using that year as proof that we like split Government.  But I don't know if he would have survived if he was on the ballot.  Ditto Clinton in '94, and Bush in '06.  I don't know if there's enough statistical evidence to really say that.  Now with a potential rehabbing economy and weak Republican, the country might again lean slightly R in their generic ballot in 2012, but like Obama better than (R nominee).  I would not use that as an affirmative argument that the country wants divided government.  

I agree that the left and right will trade who controls part of the Government for a long time, but I don't think it's because a large segment of voters specifically want it to be divided in any conscious sense.  It's because our elections happen every 2, 4, and 6 years, so there's always a new mix going on...

[ Parent ]
I definitely agree on this.
A handful of voters might actively vote for divided government, and a larger pool may push for it when their preferred party is locked out of power. Yet another group may extoll it's virtues and then vote the same way they always do. However, the staggering of elections is a much bigger factor than all of these groups combined.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
We should hold the House, but the Senate will be a nail-biter
if Obama is narrowly reelected. The GOP should pick up ND, NE, we have a better than 50% shot at MT, and a little less than 50% chance in MO (incumbency and candidate problems). Even if we lose one of those, we might pick up WI, VA, or even FL (small chance, but doable with the right circumstances). The problem is that MA, NV, and ME are in danger.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
One of the biggest if
not the biggest drawbacks for house D's is the popularity of the President/democrat's policies.  Folks might decide, hope not, to vote Obama over Romney but they are not saying "four more years" or "lets stay the course" or "lets be even more liberal then before".  

I do not get the sense that polls are showing a willingness to return DC to the D trifecta.  

[ Parent ]
Bruning crushing Kerrey 54-37
http://t.co/IvmmQLWx

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Don't think Kerrey gets close
May tighten up to high single digits, but thats about it. His rollout killed his candidacy.

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
Guess we don't have to divert
resources to NE much, if at all, anymore.

Not as worried now as I was.  

21, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Rom 8:38-39    

[ Parent ]
A little closer than Rasmussen, but still a big lead
Rasmussen had Bruning up 22, but 17 is still a commanding lead. Basically confirms the idea that the race at this point isn't close. It's not as though Kerrey hasn't been trying-he's been running ads for a few weeks now. I think many people who thought this race would be close don't grasp just how distant of a memory Kerrey is and how the state has become more Republican since he last ran.

41, R, NE-1.
[ Parent ]
PA-Senate special election for Orie's seat
http://www.post-gazette.com/st...

I have a hard time seeing Metcafle or Turzai giving up plum leadership positions to be a low ranking State Senator.  Hart seems like the odds on favorite.

27, Republican, PA-6

And remember, no primary
In a special, the party leadership picks the candidate. No way they wouldvo for Metcalfe anyway--too independent. Hart should get it if she wants it. Pretty funny since she & Orie are enemies.
[ Parent ]
Yes
Hart and Orie hate each other.  They are from different segments of the Republican Party in Allegheny County.

Metcalfe is not getting any special election nomination love from anyone.

27, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Update from SCOTUS
Clement gave an amazing argument and there appears to be a 5-4 majority to strike down the mandate.

http://m.scotusblog.com/2012/0...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

No Surprise
4 Very conservative Justices and 1 pretty Conservative justice will vote down Obamacare?  Not a surprise at all.  So if Kennedy and Roberts (The only 2 even remotely possible to split with the right side of the court on this) are going to go where we thought, tomorrow and "severability" becomes the bigger day.  

Of course this is only half way through, so its pretty silly to talk about it before the days is over.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

[ Parent ]
When is the ultimate ruling on the individual mandate?
n/t

NY-3
[ Parent ]
SC doesn't tend to annouce dates of decisions in advance
It would be almost unheard of for them to not rule before the end of this term.

Last day of session?


41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Never count your Kennedy-shaped chickens before they hatch.
I don't think you can say with any certainty how Kennedy's going to come down on an issue until he's actually signed off on the opinion. Regardless, the fight over his replacement is going to be one of the craziest Supreme Court fights in a long time.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.
[ Parent ]
Agreed
Which is why it's so important at this point to unify the party and get focused on November.  I was a big Perry guy and I have never been a big Mitt fan.  However, it's clear he will be our nominee so I will fully support him.  

The fight over Kennedy's seat (and potentially Scalia and Thomas') should inspire every conservative to fully support Romney and defeat Obama come November.  

34, Republican, TN-8



[ Parent ]
Anthony Kennedy
I just find it s damn hard to trust anyone whose surname is unlucky enough to be "Kennedy," eve when they aren't related to Massachusetts Royalty those Kennedys.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
Intrade market spikes for mandate repeal
Intrade now gives mandate repeal 47.7% chance, but from 35% chance yesterday.  Still below 50%, but it's basically a coin flip.

33, R, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Mandate Repeal now at 54% chance
still about a coin flip, but not more likely than not it will be repealed, according to Intrade speculators.

33, R, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Maybe not so quick - Kennedy
"Justice Kennedy, who had been critical of the government's argument earlier in the day, for the first time jumps in to take issue with the challengers.  He seems to bristle at the suggestion that young, healthy people without insurance are somehow beyond regulatory consideration.  Such a person is "an actuarial reality who can and must be measured," he said." - SCOTUSBlog

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
"My mama always said, Anthony Kennedy is like a box of chocolates".
Is it absurd to anyone else that so many monumental decisions in American politics could be decided by Anthony Kennedy's digestion?

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.
[ Parent ]
AR-4 Race
It is hard to believe that
AR4, a 58% McCain seat, was actually made more R by the Ds.

Ross, Shuler, Boren, Taylor, Edwards, Davis, Tanner, Childers, Skelton, Cramer, Boucher, Berry, Snyder, Mallohan, Boyd, Herseth, Pomeroy and Spratt are blue dogs who howl no more. Who is going to take their place?

[ Parent ]
Nobody
The Blue Dogs served their purpose after the Dems retook the House. Now, its just a shell of a group. A majority of the seats lost by Blue Dogs are safe Republican now.

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
the same people
who replaced the moderate Republicans like Leach, Johnson, or Simmons.

Party-line votes for the opposite party.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.

[ Parent ]
To an extent that
is true as some GOP moderates have certainly moved on.

Of in course in 2010 the Leach, Shays, Simmons among others nearly went back to the GOP side.  In fact we saw moderate or even conervative GOP members take back some seats in 2010.

Not sure the +30 blue dogs that are gone.  Like the list above will ever return.  

[ Parent ]
At best, two or three moderates
won in the entire GOP wave.

Hanna certainly is.  You could make the argument for McKinley, Grimm, or Gibson.

That's about all I see.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.

[ Parent ]
Andre Bauer Blog
Paul Thurmond running in the special for McConnell
State Senate seat. Runner up to Tim Scott for Congress in 2010. Democrat frontrunner looks like former state Rep. Anne Hutto, who lost reelection in 2010. With Thurmond it should be likely Republican.
http://mountpleasant-sc.patch....

SC1-Charleston
Menino neutral in Senate race
WI-Pres, WI-Gov:
Marquette Law School has a new poll out.

Highlights:

In the recall election Walker is up two on Barrett (47-45) and four on Falk (49-45) -- this is tighter then their last poll (in January) which had Walker up 6 on Barrett and 7 on Falk.

Barrett has stellar favorables at 47-19, Falk's are a OK 39-29, La Follette's are 20-13 & Vinehout remains the least known and barely above water at 12-10.

Walker's favorable are 50-45 and his job approvals are 50-47.

In the Dem primary Barret leads 36-29 over Falk with Vinehout & LaFollette both at 8, this is weirdly lower than LaFollette's showing in other polls though so I'm not sure what to make of that.

For the Presidential race Romney leads 39-30 over Santorum in the primary & Obama stomps by double digits in the general.

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem

Walker's approval is up by a few points
They did poll the approvals a month ago.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
And
Obama only up 5 on Mitt, which is a nice improvement for Mitt.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
I think that Walker
is thanking his lucky stars that his previous job title was 'Milwaukee County Executive.' I'm sure that some of those voters keeping his approvals high are residents who remember his tenure in that office and find it favorable.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Looks like Walker can win the primary as a write-in
if he's legally allowed to do it!
[ Parent ]
WATN: Former Rep. David Minge
In 2002 former Rep. Rep. David Minge (then MN-02, now parts of MN-01, MN-02 and MN-07) was appointed to the state Appellate Court by Jesse Ventura. He is retiring from the bench next week. Not sure how politically active he will be (he has not been able to be political on the bench). His wife donated to Dayton in 2010 but seems to have no other donations. He is having a get-together with his former campaign and office staff next weekend.

Minge was one of the founders of the Blue Dog caucus. He lost to Rep. Mark Kennedy in 2000.

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04

Oh yeah
Forgot to mention he is 70.

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04
[ Parent ]
The 2002
MN map was not favorable to Ds.  Minge basically had to face Kline in a lean R seat  and lost badly in 2002.

The loss of Minge was one reason I thought the delegation would get together and do incumbent protection in 2012.  Did not happen.  Kline ironically was the big loser of 2012's map but unlike Minge he looks to be running in a decent seat for him. Also unlike, Minge in 2002, no top candidates have stepped forward as of yet to take on Kline.

[ Parent ]
Minge
lost to Kennedy.  Kline defeated Luther.

Republican Medical Doc from New York, NY
[ Parent ]
Hoekstra only down 5?
Still likely D.
http://hotlineoncall.nationalj...

SC1-Charleston
Yeah... hmmm
What is Market Research Group's track record, is anyone familiar?

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem
[ Parent ]
They're a pretty well-known Michigan firm
Can't comment on their track record per se, as I don't know that they've really done many polls close to election day. Still, I see no reason to doubt the poll, based on Stabenow's approval numbers there, and 5 is certainly closer to the final outcome than the absurd 21-point margin that ABC found.
[ Parent ]
people
also might just be forgetting about the Hoekstra ad.  The 21 point margin was right after that, right?

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.
[ Parent ]
Seems low
The fact that Stabenow is below 50% against Durant makes me a little skeptical about this poll. It would be nice to know the political breakdown of the sample but they don't provide it.    
[ Parent ]
Random AqurianLeft type question...
Does anyone know why in 1948 CA-18 Voting spiked up nearly 75% to over 200,000 votes in the House race and the district has never seen turnout of over 200,000 since?

Just seems kind of odd.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

CA18
covers a very different part of CA then the 1940s. In the 1940s it was in Orange and LA county.  

Now its heavily hispanic and does not cast nearly as many votes.  

[ Parent ]
That would explain it
Even the jump between 1946 and 48 was huge but I assume thats due to returning servicemen from Japan?

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
Irvington's Mayor Smith gets in CD 10 race
http://www.politickernj.com/55...

Irvington Mayor Wayne Smith this morning formally declared his intention to run for the vacant 10th Congressional seat.

Crowded field. I figure that its possible a white guy could enter and win now.

26, R, PA-01.



Ras: Mandel-Brown tied at 43
http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

Hell of a primary bounce, or just Ras?  

Male, LA-06/LA-01 (Home is where the heart is)
Cassidy, Tillis, Rounds, Latham for Senate!  

Probably a little of both
Mandel's kept a very low profile so the primary was probably the first time many Republican voters even thought about the Senate race and his candidacy. I do expect this race to tighten in same way Florida has.

And yes, it's Ras.

[ Parent ]
doesn't pass the smell test
Mandel at 43 is believable, Brown at 43 isn't.  Almost like an internal, with the opponent's numbers lower than they should be but the challenger at a realistic place.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.
[ Parent ]
Yep
I've said all along this race will be a tossup. Don't think he's tied yet, but this race will be close.

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
Doubtful
I'd say right now add a 5 point margin like NE-SEN between PPP/Ras 45-40 would be much more belivable.

Regardless, this won't be easy for Brown.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

[ Parent ]
Gerrymandering turns 200
http://www.brennancenter.org/b...

Happy birthday.

26, R, PA-01.



Here's to 200 more!


Lifelong Republican, TX-17
[ Parent ]
Wisconsin legislature can't fix 2 districts
http://host.madison.com/wsj/ne...

A federal court on Tuesday took redistricting out of the hands of the Wisconsin Legislature, saying the political environment was so toxic that the lawmakers were incapable of making even the "precious few" changes needed to bring the new Republican-drawn maps into compliance with federal law.

Haha. If and when Walker wins these lefties are going to be furious.

26, R, PA-01.



I linked
maps of HD8 & HD9 the other day. HD8 & HD9 are like two rectanglar boxes standing next to each.  The seat are compact and will elect two Ds. The court wants the two boxes or seats to be placed on eachother.  The seats will still elect two Ds but one seat may elect an hispanic.

Its a minor thing but calling the legislators back into session would cost hundreds of thousands of dollars.  Okay not that much if everyone quickly agreeded. The D's have made it clear they want to redo the map.  So the judges will have to redo 15 blocks on their own.

[ Parent ]
SCOTUS
So, I've been on a run and then at the beach this morning (so, I've been AFK) and am on my dad's phone at the beach. Can anyone give me the "CliffsNotes" of what's happened today and what people are saying as to how Kennedy will vote? How was Kennedy today in questioning?

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
SCOTUS
Basically 4 of the Conservative justices including Kennedy sharpy questioned Verrelli, leading most people at the break to think its a slam dunk that SCOTUS would overturn it.

However after the break Kennedy also sharply questioned the other side.

Most observers still took from today that the SCOTUS will most likely declare at minimum the mandate as illegal.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

[ Parent ]
Justice Kennedy . . .
perhaps the most powerful man in America.  

Hey, he has the power to change the course of American constitutional history with a few strokes of his pen.

[ Parent ]
yup; he became that when O Connor retired


41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.
[ Parent ]
I'd say it's 2:1 odds
in your guys' favor.  Not a slam dunk, but it's not looking so great for Obama.

Roberts actually seems more persuadable than Kennedy, in my opinion.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.

[ Parent ]
Early results in Israel Kadima primary
Mofaz crushing incumbent Livni.
I don't like Mofaz, but Livni is a nastier pol than anyone here in the United States. Love to see her lose.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Livni
was top candidate in 2009 race but her leftish allies stumbled.  
[ Parent ]
They didn't just stumbled
She sucked the life out of them.
[ Parent ]
Links
Late Maps Could Cause Florida Election Problems
http://www.wjhg.com/news/headl...

Delegates kick off launch of petition drive to put congressional redistricting on ballot
http://www.therepublic.com/vie...

Attorneys file documents in congressional redistricting case
http://www.statejournal.com/st...



R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

God Bless Them, But...
...Shouldn't MD Republicans being trying to put a non-partisan redistricting commission on the ballot rather than just the 2012 map?!  
[ Parent ]
Perhaps that's their plan for 2014 or 2016
Since it would only start following the 2020 census.

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.
[ Parent ]
Political Roundup for March 27, 2012 | 142 comments
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Elections have consequences -- from the race for President to the race for one seat on a city council. The political economist Max Weber wrote that the state possesses a monopoly on the legitimate use of force. But in the United States, the state is divided into myriad federal, state, and local entities. And the elections to fill those entities are the products of the fascinating interactions between campaigns, party affiliations, voter turnout, and the media spotlight. Red Racing Horses analyzes those elections -- from a Republican-leaning perspective -- to keep a close eye on the process of electing officials, and to offer our perspective on the election-related issues of the day. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog.

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