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RRH's 2014 General Election Preview Series:

Part 7 - Senate

Part 6 - Eastern Governors

Part 5 - Western Governors

Part 4 - Northeast/South House

Part 3 - Midwest/West House

Part 2 - Row Officers

Part 1 - Legislatures and Local

The Current RRH Race Ratings:




Row Officers

Evening Political Roundup for March 27, 2012

by: Ryan_in_SEPA

Tue Mar 27, 2012 at 18:00:00 PM EDT

MA-Senate: Not surprising to me, but surprising to others, Boston Mayor Tom Menino intends to stay neutral in the upcoming US Senate race between Scott Brown and Elizabeth Warren.  In a sign of Democratic unity being endanger, Menino refuses to endorse or say who he is voting for.   This further reiterates Warren's problems with some of the Democratic establishment in Massachusetts.

WI-Governor: Scott Walker remains in a tight race to keep his job as Governor.  He leads Democratic challengers Tom Barrett and Kathleen Falk by 2 and 4 points respectively.  In case you did not know, this race will be close.

WI-GOP Primary: The same Marquette Law School poll places Mitt Romney up by 8, 39-31, over Rick Santorum in the Republican primary.  This poll shows movement towards Romney like a Rasmussen poll released earlier this week.  President Obama leads Romney by 5 in the general election matchup, 48-43.

Gerrymander: Happy 200th birthday gerrymandering.  The Brennan Center takes a look back at the glorious (inglorious if you are pure on such things) history of electioneering.  Arguably gerrymandering predates the 19th century as gerrymandering was alive and well in colonial Pennsylvania.  In William Penn's grand experiment all was not well on the electoral front.  Seeing members of the legislative assembly we elected based on county, the predominately English Quakers sought to divide the influence of the Welsh Quakers in the Welsh Tract region west of Philadelphia.  Thus the county line between two of the three counties at the time, Philadelphia and Chester, was drawn essentially to split the Welsh in half.  Now the boundary in the Main Line suburbs of Philadelphia separating Delaware and Chester counties from Montgomery County is the historical artifact of this gerrymandering.

PA-Ballot Signatures: Speaking of Pennsylvania relics of the past, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court has struck down a state law requiring petition signature gathers to actually live in the district.  This recently came up in the disputed PA-12 primary where Mark Critz challenged Jason Altmire's petitions.  Based on federal case law, this seemed like an inevitable conclusion. 

Ryan_in_SEPA :: Evening Political Roundup for March 27, 2012
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West Virginia briefs
were filed today.  The state formally filed to keep its legislatively passed map intact.

This means baring a huge decision from SCOTUS the passed map will at least stand for this year.  

Florida house
passed the new state senate map.  I assume GOV will sign and court will quickly look at it more one time

[ Parent ]
I Expect The FL Supremes To Tinker...
...With that new FL St. Senate map, but I predict they won't throw it out wholesale, like FL Dems want. I bet they just shift some lines between a couple of pairs of districts, and call it a day.

I suspect this will ultimately result in a 24-16 or 23-17 FL State Senate after 2012...  

[ Parent ]
FL State Senate
I'll put it at 26-14. The first map is 27-13. The GOP gave up one seat in second try (Ellyn Bogdanoff's seat, from R+2 to D+2). If Bogdanoff could make her race competitive, this could be 26-13-1.  

[ Parent ]
filing deadlines
Today is the filing deadline in Missouri and South Dakota. Virginia's deadline is Thursday. South Carolina is Friday. Colorado and New Jersey are Monday.

I was told that the reason Debra Bowen has yet to post the list of California's qualified candidates is because she won't publish preliminary candidates who have yet to qualify. And she's checking all the signatures. And that takes time. The list of qualified candidates could be up Thursday. Or April 24. Not sure which.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

noteworthy in MO
is that there is still a pending lawsuit dealing with the congressional districts that the state supreme court is still deciding.

If they don't uphold the map, this will present candidates in affect district(s) of being in the odd position of having filed based on invalid districts.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
MO state house lines upheld
This is the 163 state house lines that were just upheld, not the congressional lines where the MO supreme court still hasn't decided.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Romney & Paul campaigns ask for Jefferson County caucus delegates to be thrown out

Details are in the article, but apparently they didn't start to vote until 6:30 PM there after a lot of people left.

Effect of this is more of a factor for the state convention than the district ones due to Jefferson County being cracked between three districts.

#8 In addition, #8 already has a Santorum delegate majority to that congressional district convention; with or without its portion of JeffCo. Appears to have been his best district a week ago Saturday.

#3 This is the one district this could swing. Depends in part on the April 10 St Charles caucus redo.

#2 Too few delegates in JeffCo in this district to matter.
Winner of the congressional district is entirely dependent upon the April 10 St Charles caucus redo.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

MO Senate proposed running Governor & Lt Governor as single ticket

Starting in 2016. (Way too late to take effect in 2012 even if Republicans wanted to)

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

Looks like they're going for
The KY/MT system (choose running mates before primary) right? That would be an improvement. If it's the "shotgun wedding" approach instead they need to kill it.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
It currently is "shotgun wedding" following general elections
I didn't check the details about how the governor would choose or the timing for getting that Lt Governor on his ticket. I just noticed that in the general election they'd no longer be separate questions.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Shotgun wedding
here means the system IL has - separate primaries, same ticket in the general. That's a horrible system as there's no guarantee the Gov and LG can work together. This looks like Gov candidates choose their LG, which usually works out much better.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Israel Kadima
Mofaz crushing Livni 65-35!  

26, Male, R, NY-10

And the biggest winner
Really no matter the results, is Bibi Netanyahu. He can continue what he's done in the past 3 years. Which means, no actual opposition. The right still has a big lead in the polls for the next election. The right hasn't trailed in a single poll in the last 5! years. It's not like here where it's swingy all the time. The left in Israel has become a small minority actually, not only in polls.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
conservative Israelis have higher birthrates.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.

[ Parent ]
Small part only
Israelis in general have become much more hawkish after seeing the failure of the Palestinians to accept Barak's peace plan in 2000 and Hamas continued missile firings after the Gaza disengagement.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
truth in that as well

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.

[ Parent ]
Piggy-backing off the news LCL posted on this in the morning thread... I think this could actually pass. Maryland's 1962 districts were rejected at a referendum, and... whaddya know, the courts wound up drawing a replacement. They also have two Hispanic D state Reps from Montgomery and the FLHPAC on board.

R - MD-7

Again, Though...
...Why are they are just trying to throw out the 2012 Congressional map, instead of trying to pass an across-the-board (i.e. both Congressional and Legislative) non-partisan redistricting commission?!

(Or, better yet, doing both?!!)

I can't figure out why they are just trying to throw out the current lines, when a commission will protect MD Republicans going forward.  

[ Parent ]
MD only has Referendum
not Initiative. They can't put a commission on the ballot. All they can do is throw out this map and shame Democrats into passing something cleaner - or even better, deadlocking and throwing it to the courts.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
If the current map is overthrown
One can only hope that the Democrats do what they should've done all along and pass an 8-0 map...

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
I'd be happier with that to be honest
Their 8-0 was significantly cleaner than this one.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
doubt it will matter much
MD Democrats will just come up with a similar map to referendum again.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
CT-Sen: McMahon up 21 over Shays in internal poll

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at

Sounds sketchy
Q has Shays within 10. This looks like a response poll  

[ Parent ]
Santorum's tortured math

Their basic argument is that people will vote Santorum because he's Rick Santorum and that the current popular vote is irrelevant to how the delegates will vote.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Is he still in the race?
Oh, never mind...  


[ Parent ]
TX Voter ID
Trial set for July 9-13. Three weeks before DoJ and intervenors wanted:

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

Super Pac going after Murphy and Holden

28, Republican, PA-6

A Look at the the CA landscape

Basically doom and gloom in 20 convenient PowerPoint slides.

Takes a look at the vulnerable Republican seats (Lungren, Gallegly, Miller, and Bilbray)

21-Cubano, R, CA-38
City Commission Vice-Chair, College Republican Club President

Doom and gloom?
It's a document that analyzes only potential Democratic pick-ups and doesn't present a lot to indicate they will. I don't see a there there.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
SC(state)Rep absent for 2 months
Has anyone checked Argentina yet?

[ Parent ]
Seems to be saying
that blacks are underrepresented by highlighting it in red (12% of the population 0 Senators) while Jews are overrepresented (1.8% of the population 12 Senators). I assume he's black.  Anyway...


[ Parent ]
Also saying
He is saying whites are overrepresented in the Senate as much as he is saying that Jews are overrepresented.

[ Parent ]
he considers Jews separate from Whites, though
or at least is putting more emphasis on it.  Seems like at thinly veiled anti-Semitic attack on my distant cousin.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.

[ Parent ]
I'm tempted to violate Godwin's law on this one,
especially given the headline,
Candidate's Pitch: Too Many Jews In The Senate

Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"

[ Parent ]
Conservative Party NY-27
Probably Chris Collins will get this line.

Representative on Congress: Rep. Turner, OH

More NY
This time NY-24: It's looking like Buerkle vs Maffei

Representative on Congress: Rep. Turner, OH

[ Parent ]
Did Maffei get the Independence line?  

[ Parent ]
Buerkle got the 2010
nod from the Indenpendence party.  

Now what that means is another matter.

[ Parent ]
Newt fires campaign manager, 1/3 of full-time staff, claims he's going to Tampa

At this point, I'm convinced he's in the midst of a nervous breakdown.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at

someone from PA should check
to see if the approx 40 people he lined up as delegates for PA are still backing him.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Hard to tell
He seems to still have a small, but very loyal cadre of followers.  

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
He disgusts me
Absolutely disgusts me. Sit down, Newt.  

[ Parent ]
MO-Filing Deadline
Looks like no surprises. In good news for our chances of holding MO-LG, State Sen. Brad Lager is the only mainstream primary opposition to Kinder. (Libertarian-flavored Judge Mike Carter and Some Dude Charles Kullman are also running).

R - MD-7

list of suprizes

1. Rep. Scott Sifton, D-Affton, switched his qualifying documents today - opting to run for state Senate rather than his current House seat

2. Sen. Jane Cunningham, a St. Louis County Republican whose seat was wiped from the new district maps, withdrew Monday from a race that would have pitted her against a fellow Republican incumbent. She is not seeking any other office.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
78 house seats conceded on the filing deadline in MO
The Democrats have conceded 5 State senate seats to the Republicans by failing to file a candidate.

These are 15, 23, 27, 29, 33.

The Republicans are currently conceding 4 senate seats, but have until Friday to find candidates in 2 of them due to late withdrawals.

These are 5 **, 7 **, 9, 11
With ** the ones in which filing remains open until Friday.

On the house side, the Democrats have conceded 51 seats.

Those are:

The ones with a * have minor party opposition.

And the Republicans have conceded 27 seats.

Those are: 10,18,19,22,23,26,27,36,45,67,73,74,75,76,77,78,79,80,81,83,84,85,86,87,88,117,118

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

SD 15, 23, 27, 29, 33
Are they even competitive?

[ Parent ]
By Dave's Redistricting average performance, yes in case of #15
But I'm thinking Dave's average party performance in Missouri overstates D strength by several points.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
great info

[ Parent ]
NY Budget: On-time in 2nd consecutive year
Cuomo is absolutely fine with a Dem Assembly and GOP state Senate.

Reactions to the budget in the linked article. Seems like conservatives like it.

CA Dem Campaign Treasurer stole over $7 mil
Debra Bowen has finally finished qualifying all the candidates
 I'll likely do a diary when I have time, but here's a summary:

There are 14 Republicans, 6 Democrats, 2 Peace and Freedom, an American Independent, and a Libertarian. Yes, the ballot really will have 24 candidates. I'm surprised there is no Green.

I have no idea how the vote will go. I'm pretty sure that 23 of the candidates have never held elected office before. I doubt anyone other than Feinstein will have the money to run any advertising in a major market. If you're a Republican, maybe you can buy something in Bakersfield or Fresno and hope that will get you enough votes to come in second.

The congressional races are pretty much what I wrote before.

The senate is an uphill climb. It's 24D-11R with 5 potentially competitive. Democrats have the superior candidate in 2 of those races and Republicans have the better candidate in 1. I'd guess it'll be 28D-12R, but 27D-13R still gets them 2/3. It's possible for the GOP to get 14 seats, but it's not likely.

The assembly is 48D-25R. Republicans should clear 27 seats easily and it'll probably end up 51D-29R.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

...can you spare a link...?

Libertarian Conservative, Norway.

[ Parent ]
Really Sucks
GOP is probably favored in District 5, districts 31 and 39 look like Toss-ups, but I have a hard time seeing us beating Pavley or taking the 19th. The math is really tightening on the GOP.

Baker '14
R, MA-3

[ Parent ]
I'm More Pessimistic Than That
I think the gerrymandered State Senate map takes the GOP down to 12, and I wouldn't even rule out going down to 11.

I suspect in 4 years, the GOP will be reduced to about 10-30 in the CA State Senate, based on this map.  

[ Parent ]
10 seats?
I don't see a scenario where Republicans get 10 seats happening this decade. They will win at least 5 in 2012 and at least 7 in 2014, as there are that many safe Republican seats. Which seats are they going to lose? You must see Republican popularity taking a real nose dive to lose such safe seats.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
This is the official Politics1 list
[ Parent ]
It's not 100% accurate
It doesn't match CA SOS

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Menino is supporting Brown
He's prohibited from praticipating in the Dem state convention if he endorses a Republican. Hence he's officially "neutral".

30, Left leaning indie, MA-7


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