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Political Roundup for March 29, 2012

by: Ryan_in_SEPA

Thu Mar 29, 2012 at 09:30:00 AM EDT


President

Romney: Senator Marco Rubio endorsed Mitt Romney last night on Fox News.  Rubio has withheld his endorsement for over 2 months after the Florida primary.  Romney probably wishes he would have got this endorsement sooner.

President Bush 41: President George H. W. Bush is set to endorse Romney today. He is clearly the senior statesman of the GOP party and it is another clear sign that the party establishment is ready for this nomination process to end. 

Newt: Shelden Adelson, Newt's political sugardaddy, is putting an end to the flow of sugar to Newt's campaign as he sees Newt's campaign at the end of the line and little chance he could be come the vice presidential nominee.  Newt's campaign is literally dwindling to a Twitter account and Tiffany's credit line.

Blue Collar:  An interesting thing is happening on the way to November... blue collar voters are likely going to have two candidates they don't care for and wish they had other alternatives.  President Obama has consistently had problems with blue collar whites, but Mitt Romney does not seem to be catching fire with them either.

Nebraska: There will be a non-binding primary in here in May and Santorum leads Romney in this poll by 39-25 percent.  Looking ahead to November Santorum and Romney have double digit leads on the President.

Congress

PA-12: Mark Critz began the ad war yesterday.  Jason Altmire joins him today by releasing his first ad.  While Critz only went slightly negative in the first ad, Altmire goes completely in and tries to contrast the two from the left, specifically Dodd-Frank and the Ryan budget.  I am not sure this hurts Altmire's general election chances either.  The Ryan budget is probably not the most popular thing in a district that is fairly old.

Fundraising:  In case you did not know, the First Quarter fundraising period ends Saturday.  If you did not know, you probably don't subscribe to political campaign email lists as you seriously get bombarded with requests at this time of the cycle.  Who are you donating to this cycle?

CA-39: Ed Royce appears to have a decently funded challenger in Jay Chen, a small businessman and first generation American.  While most consider this seat to be a long shot to be competitive especially with Royce, it will be interesting to see if Chen can keep up his fundraising and maybe find a way to make it somewhat competitive.

New Hampshire: We are closer to a redistricting map in New Hampshire as the State Senate has passed a minimum change map approved by both congressmen.  New Hampshire needs to shift around a couple hundred people to be constitutionally compliant.

SuperPAC: The anti-incumbent Super PAC is targeting several incumbents in both parties including Walter Jones, Tim Murphy, Tim Holden, and Jim Moran just to name a few.  SuperPAC does not seem to have any focus other than targeting incumbents.

Ryan_in_SEPA :: Political Roundup for March 29, 2012
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OH-Sen, FL-Sen:
Quinnipiac has Brown up 10

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/inst...

and Nelson up 8

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/inst...

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


And I gave my money to
Steve Bullock & Matt Varilek. I'm interested to know who everyone thought was worth forking out for.

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


CA-39
McCain won his current district 51%-46.6%. Royce won it 62.5%-37.5%. That was his low point since 1992. This is a district in Northern Orange County, where Democrats never win. So good luck Mr. Chen. Ed Royce has $3 million in the bank. Maybe he'll spend some.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

CA-39: Cal State Fullerton Networking
led by the AIPAC for Royce, an event in which I will be in attendance (despite me being a neocon). I will report any inside info from there.

I might actually campaign for Royce if Chen starts to show any little sign of being competitive (which it sounds like he is). Rowland Heights, Diamond Bar, and Chino Hills provide a large Asian base.

21-Cubano, R, CA-38
Community College Trustee, City Commission Vice-Chair, College Republican Club President


[ Parent ]
Links
City Weighs in on Congressional Redistricting Map Proposal
http://www.wibw.com/localnews/...

Gill, Goetten raise funds as battle over election results brews
http://www.pantagraph.com/news...

Report: Obama Outspends GOP Rivals By Millions
http://www.nationaljournal.com...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Donate
I will likely donate to Obama and Bishop before the week is out.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Unemployment claims down 5,000
Lowest since April 2008.

Does anyone know the numbers were at during like 05-06ish?

I'm thinking 200K+ again for March's report.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


good news
Economic recovery is what we have been hoping for since late 2007. And this seems like sustained recovery

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
I'm not convinced
I'm really not seeing it (a "sustained recovery") around here in Metro-Atlanta.

Even so, I hope that it's true.

Age 44. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.


[ Parent ]
unemployment in djfferent states
Unemployment rates for different states during this recession were always geographical. The deep south, the southwest, and Michigan/Ohio were the hardest hit. The farmers in the great planes, New England, and tech-savvy places like Virginia and Minnesota were hardly in a recession at all. Georgia is one of the top-10 highest unemployment states. Hopefully the recovery is seen in your region soon.  

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Our economy is recylcing jobs
right.  We have added jobs over the last year but personal income has not increased by a mere fraction.  How can we add 1.2 million jobs over 10 months and yet personal income is flat?  Higher paying jobs are being lost while the jobs being added are lower paying.

Here are the real life economic questions.

1st anyone here think they could leave their current job and find a better paying one?  Ryan, our moderator today, is the only one I have had of leaving one job for a beter paying one.  In a robust job market your wages go up or you quit and find a better job.  I think I could find other work but it probably mean less pay and benefits.

2nd how about your house?  Anyone think boy I can sell this house in a minute and find a better one.  Or maybe I should ask can anyone qualify for a house purchase?

I have seen economic improvement.  This is a faux improvement.  We lost a Goodyear plant in west TN with 2300 high paying jobs.  There are has been several companies to hire or rehire people back but the pay is 40% lower.  You are still working and maybe even more are working but income is flat. We are likely to see some major white collar layoffs at Morgan Keegan here in town and I am hearing about people thinking that they can get better paying jobs.  

So yes we have bottomed out and more people are working but its alot like spinnng wheels in a hamster cage.  We are going faster and not getting anywhere.

Unless you are a 1% guy.  Their stock portfolios are rocking right now.  


[ Parent ]
Yep
I am seeing what I call mixed signals.  My legal practice is a very good indicator as I do a lot of commercial banking work.  Right now the work is still heavily tilted towards the end stage of the practice, i.e. loan workout and legal action, with little practice focusing on the front end.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Exactly
Hiring has picked up, but the jobs are entry level. My metro area has been named one of the 20 best in the US for economic activity, and the average person here who finds a job is just scraping by. Everyone is working for $30-35,000 a year whereas before the recession they were making $50,000. That's the so called recovery.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
the farmers in the great planes...
I just have to say that gave me a very amusing mental image of farmers forced by the economy to become flight attendants. Thanks for that!

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Texas adds 2 points
If Texas weren't taking in so many people from other states, their unemployment rate would be 2 points lower. People go to successful states where the jobs are. They displace others who might get the jobs and some don't get jobs. So success increases a state's unemployment rate. On the other hand, a poor performing state will lose people. That makes their unemployment rate lower.

States like California have not only losing middle to high income earners, but adding low income earners, documented or undocumented. Some gets jobs. Some don't. Thus, our unemployment rate is really high.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Canada to increase the retirement age for OAS to 67
"We do have a major issue down the road dealing with demographic pressures," he said, comparing this budget's changes to OAS with federal moves on public debt and the Canada Pension Plan in the mid-1990s. "Hats off to Canada. We worry about this, as opposed to the United States, which has unfunded liabilities coming through their ears. So I think it's going to be good that the government's willing to address these issues."

http://www.theglobeandmail.com...

28, Republican, PA-6


Obama's lack of leadership
is really remarkable. But the country now expects so little from him at this point, it doesn't seem to matter.

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!


[ Parent ]
If They Were Hosers In Good Socialist Standing...
...They'd riot over this!!1!  

[ Parent ]
Hockey not involved
Canadians outside of Quebec only riot about hockey.

I think there was a poll awhile back that showed this had majority support.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
If you're looking for a good hockey riot
If past precedent is any indication there should be a nice one blazing in Minneapolis this weekend if the Gophers win the national championship.

Saint Paul (MN-4)  

[ Parent ]
full retirement age already scheduled to rise to 67 here
What I'm not aware of is if there is a similar early retirement provision in Canada similar to the one here (62 1/2? That's not scheduled to increase)

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Blue collar voters
Romney and Obama fit the stereotypes of everything bad about each political party.

The one that is less incompetent will begrudgingly win their votes. McCain lost the blue collar votes - and the election by the way he handled the bailout.


MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


Thoughts from Flu Quarantine
Rubio: You knew that it was going to happen. Only the timing was up for debate.

Blue Collar: Well, they could pick Obama, who has, I must admit, been trying really hard for their votes lately, or they could pick Romney, who is also a rich guy who has trouble with them, but whose party has recently fared much better with their demographic than in the past. Actually, I think that there's little question that Romney will win blue collar whites in the South, even though he has had trouble with them in the past. As far as most of them are concerned, Obama might as well be running on the Socialist Party ticket, and no matter how some of them might like their pork (though they seem to be growing somewhat more economically conservative lately), culturally, an image like that just diesn't play in Shelbyville. Blue Collar voters in other regions are the real prize. Think about Wisconsin and all of those counties that went for both Bush and Obama in rural Wisconsin. Obama could still win in that Tate, but if he's losing those counties, he's probably losing similar one in other states where he can't take the hit.

Fundraising: I've gotten an email from the Shelby County D.A. Amy Weirich's (R) campaign, but I'll be volunteering for that one, so I don't think I'll donate. I got mail from Rick Santorum, which went promptly went into a receptacle. I might donate to Illario Pantano again.

CA-39: Chen might overperform (relative to another Dem against Royce) because of his fundraising and background, but Royce will still win.

NH: This actually the rare state where I'm ok with having two very swingy seats in place of two more polarized seats.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)


Wherein I give Christine O'Donnell a small amount of credit
This is a good ad, and highlights several datapoints the Democrats' war on women. Maher, Letterman, the money to the SuperPAC.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)


So
The senate president was one lucky S....?  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Maybe So
Haley has had bad vibes since before becoming Gov, the main reason she underperformed so much against Sheheen. I'm talking to a few people to see what's going on here, but this is mostly an old story becoming relevant.  

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Wow
This would be crazy if true and she loses her job over it.  First the LG then the Guv?  Let's wait and see what happens.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Straight up Gerald Ford style.


I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Wow
How fit is McConnell to be governor? Would he be significantly different from Haley in terms of ideology and/or style?

[ Parent ]
Probably quite different IMO
SCRep will need to give us a better idea but I'm pretty sure McConnell is a mainline SC Republican as opposed to a Haley-Sanford Fiscon.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Wow
and yeah, if this is true she's DOA.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Ryan's budget: 10 R Nos
All Dems opposed, plus:

Amash
Joe Barton
Jimmy Duncan
Gibson
Huelskamp
Jones
McKinley
Platts
Rehberg
Whitfield

That's one oddball mix.

R - MD-7


Platts
I'm glad he's leaving DC.

As for Gibson, why? Is it because of his new EVEN seat?

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Scott Walker 2016!
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
Huh
Amash, Duncan: Libertarian-ish Republicans, may be voting no from the right
Huelskamp, Barton: Probably from the right as well.
Jones, McKinley, Platts, Gibson: From the left
Rehberg: Like last time, he'll say it's from the right. Obviously he's afraid of Tester hitting him on this.
Whitfield: No idea, but he's had a couple odd votes in the past IIRC

Did Ron Paul vote for it? I have a hard time believing that.



[ Parent ]
Paul
Not Voting. I assume he isn't in DC.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
I think
hes here in Wisconsin today.

[ Parent ]
NY-25: Maggie Brooks garners Independence Party line
https://twitter.com/#!/Capital...

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

Great news!
It would be great if Slaughter retires. I think the deadline is April 16th, so there is still time.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Independence Party
Are they a right leaning party?

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
No, they don't stand for anything but themselves.


(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
I'd argue they're largely down-the-middle
In '08, they endorsed McCain-Palin.

In '10, they endorsed Cuomo, Schneiderman, Wilson, Schumer, Gillibrand and, for the U.S. House races, 11 Republicans and 11 Democrats.

For '12, they've again endorsed Gillibrand but have yet to weigh in on the presidential race. I believe they'll endorse Romney, but wouldn't back Santorum or Gingrich.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
National polls v. state polls
Most of the polls in the last six months show Romney within 6 points of Obama, some a lot closer.

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

Yet when you look at state polls Obama is up in almost every swing state, usually by more than 6 points. If Obama wins all the states he's polling ahead of Romney, he wins 341-197.

One variable would be that the state polls are conducted by different pollsters than national polls. That's true, but most of the state pollsters have done national polls. PPP has done a lot of these polls, but they have the race within 4-5 when doing national.

If Obama wins 51.5-47.5, will he win all the swing states, by the 6-12 points he's ahead now?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Three possible explanations
1) The national polls that show a close race are bunk
2) The state polls that show a significant Obama lead in swing states are bunk
3) Some states that were deep blue in '08 are now swing states

Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"

[ Parent ]
I Vote #2
Again, with polls like these, the under-informed look at the margins, and not the topline numbers. If a poll shows Obama ahead 48% to 40% in a 'swing' state, it's meaningless - Obama is likely near the top of his support level, and the relative lack of name ID means Romney's significantly under what his eventual electoral support will be.

A 48% to 40% number now very likely translates into something in the range  of between 51-47-2% and 47-51-2% in November.

IOW, wake me up when it's September, and state-by-state polling starts to actually mean something...  


[ Parent ]
this is nothing new
If you look at 2004 at this time, you had Kerry up big in some national polls and Bush up single digits in states he lost in 2000.  It just wasn't as over-analyzed.  

[ Parent ]
Fundraising blitz
Today, our house has received two calls from the NRCC, one call from the RNC, and a fundraising letter from Phil Roe. Three of these things belong together. One of these things just doesn't belong...

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

One vote margin in NY State Senate 27 Special Election
Margin now stands at 1 vote according to this media report.
http://www.nydailynews.com/blo...

South Philly Gay Republican

Meaningless
Until there's a ruling on the challenged ballots, whatever the current number is is meaningless.  

[ Parent ]
But bad optics for Storobin . . .
to have allowed Fidler to take the lead.  Now, if Storobin wins, many naive folks may be lulled into thinking that he "stole" the election from Fidler.  

Storobin should have challenged more ballots, if only to maintain his lead.  

Now watch for the Dems to say that a winner has been ascertained and that the counting should stop.  


[ Parent ]
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