Red Racing Horses
Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?


About

Red Racing Horses analyzes and discusses elections from a Republican-leaning perspective. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog. Please read our site Terms of Use.

~The RRH Moderators: BostonPatriot, Daniel Surman, GoBigRedState, Greyhound, James_Nola, Right Reformer, Ryan_in_SEPA, and Shamlet.

Problems logging into your account? Inside information? Complaints? Compliments? E-Mail us at: redracinghorses@yahoo.com. We check it often!

RRH's 2014 General Election Preview Series:

Part 2 - Row Officers

Part 1 - Legislatures and Local Races

The Current RRH Race Ratings:

Senate

Governor

House

Row Officers

Q2 Fundraising


Weekend Open Thread Part I

by: Ryan_in_SEPA

Fri Mar 30, 2012 at 20:00:00 PM EDT


1) What is your favorite district from this decade's redistricting and why?

2) What party leaders will endorse Mitt Romney next?

Ryan_in_SEPA :: Weekend Open Thread Part I
Tags: (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

Son_of_the_South's Answers
1. Would it be selfish of me to say that it's the new TN-08? Suburban Shelby County now has it's own dedicated seat, and when Fincher moves on in a few years (he has term-limited himself), we'll have our own congressman again!

I also am a big fan of the new NC-04, also for selfish reasons, since I helped draw it and make it the glorious pack that it is.

2. Who's left in line (swivels head from side to side, sees an empty room)?

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)


Only if Shelby County Republicans don't fragment their vote again
Like what happened the last two times that TN-07 was open.

Main person I'm not aware of having done an endorsement is W

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
It might happen, but
I doubt it. With Tipton County now in the district, it's so Memphis-centric and suburban that a rural candidate would need a very fractured field. Haywood, Lauderdale, Hardemann, and Lake Counties (and a few others to a lesser degree) will be casting most of their votes in the Democratic primary. All of the R state reps. from the non-Shelby County portions of the district represent areas that don't identify with other areas that are in the same boat, so forming a base would be hard. You might get a Fayette County or Tipton County candidate (say, Dolores Gresham or Barrett Rich), but I think that that's about as rural as it's going to go.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
I'm remembering one open primary in particular
With featured 3 or 4 Shelby County Republicans vs a Republican southeast of Jackson. (Bryant? or something similar)



42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
The 94-2002
open seat primaries were more or less same story with a different song.

In 1994 Ed Bryant from Henderson TN swept the rural vote and beat 3 Shelby county foes.  Now Ed had an advantage he had pushed a federal indictment of one of the Fords in late 1992 and early 1993. Clinton fired him as US attonery for west TN.  So Bryant certainly had tons of friends in Shelby but would have lost a unified primary.

In 2002 Marsha Blackburn, from Williamson county, beat 3 Shelby counties for GOP nod to TN7.

Fincher has all of good GOP shelby now in TN8. I suspect 60% of GOP primary vote would be from Shelby with its finders keepers losers weepers in TN8. There was talk a one GOP candidate in 1996-2004 in TN7 but it came to nothing. GOP congressional incumbents, except in TN1, do not face serious primary battles.  I say that even with a Wamp in CD3. Fincher has already lined up tons of Shelby support.  He likely has a seat for life.  


[ Parent ]
Unless he keeps his promise
andpromise and limits himself to his promised terms. I think that he said six or eight years.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Roe & Mayfield
"GOP congressional incumbents, except in TN1, do not face serious primary battles."
Huh?? Who is going to run against Phil Roe? He has no primary battle that I know.

"I say that even with a Wamp in CD3."
Yes, Wamp won't beat Chuck Fleischmann but Scottie Mayfield (Dairy Corporation CEO) just might. Then again Wamp and Mayfield might split the anti-Fleischmann vote. Either way I would say that Fleischmann has a primary battle on his hands.


Scott Walker 2016


[ Parent ]
My response
was less then clear.  I was talking from a historical prespective and then mixed CD3 in there.

Phil Roe won his seat by beating a GOP incumbent in a primary.  Congressman Reece, of CD1, was involved in several GOP primary wins and losses but other then that no GOP congressman in TN has ever lost a primary.  So CD1 is the only seat ever to see a member turned out in primary.

I do not think Roe will be turned out in 2012 in a primary or likely in the future.  He seems very well suited to the district and is popular in his area.  Not Quillen like popular but popular. I was just noting that CD1 is the only GOP seat, that I can recall in TN, turning out a member.  I can not recall any of the Duncans or Bakers having primary woes in CD2.

Naturally I think the 7 GOP incumbents will be quite safe in 2012.


[ Parent ]
Historical prespective
Oh, I see what you mean now. Your right as far as I can recall.

Scott Walker 2016

[ Parent ]
I think TN
GOP still has a bit of a minority complex here in TN.  This majority control is so new that before we start eating our own in primaries lets see if this majority lasts.  

Of course congressional primary losses are fairly rare anyway as I cannot recall more then two or three happening every two years.  

There was two GOP incumbents to lose in 2010 and one was a party switcher.  


[ Parent ]
Quillen
Ugh. That guy helped give us McWherter. Dunn would have been great for a second go-around, but Quillen couldn't put a grudge aside.  

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Mine
1. PA-07: I love its shape, and Meehan is safe here.
2. Pete Sessions?

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

SC Congressional Filing
SC-2 Joe Wilson has no Democratic opponent. He was targeted by the DCCC in both 2010 and 2008. District was shored up in redistricting.
SC-1,3,4,5 Freshman- All have token Democratic opponenets and are Safe Republican. SC-5 Mick Mulvaney gets a pass from national Democrats and his district is likely off the table now.
SC-7 9 Democrats, 5 Republicans- Both Republican and Democrats will likely have a runoff. State Rep. Ted Vick is the clear frontrunner on the D side. Initial rating Lean/Likely Republican.
http://www.myrtlebeachonline.c...

SC1-Charleston

Sad state of affairs
I think giving SC-5 a pass doesn't speak well for the state and national party. Jim Clyburn is the 3rd ranking House Democrat and should have been able to recruit a viable candidate in a neighboring district. While SC 5 was shored up, it only went from 53 to 55% McCain.  

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
High-profile Republicans who have yet to endorse...
Michele Bachmann*
Haley Barbour*
John Boehner**
George W. Bush**
Dick Cheney**
John Cornyn**
Rudy Giuliani***
Mike Huckabee**
Sarah Palin***
Mike Pence*
Allen West**

*likely to endorse Romney soon
**may not endorse while primary is active, but will immediately hop aboard the Romney train when he's presumptive nominee
***will be dragged kicking and screaming to support Romney

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


Rudy
probably won't come out big for Mitt.  He still has hard feelings from 2008 and I doubt that I will be seeing him give a keynote at the 2012 convention.  His speech in 08 was one of my favorites (Zell Miller in 04 being the other).

36, Republican, NJ-11  

[ Parent ]
Agreed
After watching Rudy's speech I couldnt stop thinking why the hell didnt the GOP nominate Rudy.

[ Parent ]
Rudy
It was a fantastic speech that took Obama apart in the clear logical fashion that Rudy is known for (maybe it's NY blunt but whatever).  I will never forget the parts where he was talking about leadership and how many times Obama voted present.

Rudy dropped out of the race by the time the NJ primary came up.  It was between McCain and Romney and I was so disgusted by the way the primary turned out that I voted for Rudy anyway figuring it was the only time in my life that I would get to vote for a legend like that.

36, Republican, NJ-11  


[ Parent ]
TX Redistricting
Since there was no decision today and the drop-dead date for any changes to be made is..tomorrow that means the interim maps (based this time on the state's maps) will be used for the 2012 elections. All fighting from this point forward is over 2014 and beyond.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

I Can Tell You My LEAST Favorite...
...Pair of districts:

CA-11/CA-15

Absolutely awful.

That, and the State Senate map, have convinced me that the so-called Commission drew a series of maps which may be worse than anything the Democrat legislature would have come up with in California (in terms of 'coherent' districts).  


Miller and Stark?
Why those two? All I can see is a couple of East Bay districts that were going to be safe Dem no matter who was drawing the lines. There's plenty to hate about the Senate map but I'm curious as to why 11 & 15 are so bad.

[ Parent ]
The CoIs Are AWFUL
Those districts should be split East/West, not North/South.  

[ Parent ]
it's the ridiculous county line fetish
but even a LaMOrinda to Dublin district, as has been shown on here, would be Safe D.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Don't Care About That
At least your district would be a CoI, regardless of whether it's D or not - if I have a "non-partisan redistricting commission", adherence to CoIs is the least I should expect...  

[ Parent ]
well I was saying
that the reason they don't do it is the county line fetish that courts and commissions all seem to have, even though county lines shouldn't matter one bit except in small rural counties

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Mine
1) WA-8. A quickly trending Democrat district that we have had to fight for tooth and nail in 2004, 2006, 2008, and 2010 has now become a Republican district and Dave Reichert, after four bitter elections, will get to take a deep breathe for once. Plus, whenever I would draw WA maps on DRA I always would send WA-8 into the east when most folks here and at other sites would send WA-3 east or WA-8 north.


26, Republican, WA-03 (represented by wonderful Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler).

favorite district
MO House District #70 (Mine)
Finally get liberated out of several years of Democratic rule.


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

answers
1) Well I would say my own district, but seeing how my state is incapiable of passing a map,I will have to go with the MA-04 b/c the new lines made Barney Frank retire. :)

2) Either DeMint or Pete Sessions

19, Republican, KS-03
Standing strong with Senator Roberts and Governor Brownback.


If Doheny decides to back out
there's still Doug Hoffman.  

Go wash your mouth out with soap
Doug Hoffman is an albatross for the GOP

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Answers
#1: PA-7. Aside from making Meehan safer, I just find the shape of the district amusing.  

NJ-09 is pretty awesome
It solidifies Garrett, and by extension Rodney and Lance, and is providing us with some grade-A nasty Jersey politics. Rothman-Pascrell has been by far the most entertaining Member vs. Member battle.

NC-04, PA-17, and OH-09 are all critical vote sinks. As people were talking about earlier today, those three seats could end up preserving the majority.

With Ryan and Rubio off the board it's mostly the old brigade that's left to endorse. I'll go out on a limb and say that Mitt picks up a sentimental endorsement from Nancy Reagan in the coming weeks.


Garrett
Isn't he weakened in redistricting? I think he will lose in a Dem wave year.  

[ Parent ]
He's in a McCain district
and he retains a lot of his base in Warren and Susse county.  He has been my congressman and he is fairly popular but the vast majority of the district is in moderate Bergen county.  Many of the towns will never go for him (Hackensack, Teaneck, Lodi).  But others will (and have been for 10 years).  But the Bergen GOP is killing each other right now and Garrett is probably vulnerable to a normal sounding Democrat with a big bankroll.  

36, Republican, NJ-11  

[ Parent ]
Bergen GOP
Do you know why Donovan and the county GOP chair are at war with each other?  

[ Parent ]
I am not exactly sure
But Kathe Donovan has always been a lot more moderate than the GOP as a whole and she has marched to the beat of her own drummer.  She kept her distance from Christie when she was elected in 2010 because Christie was in the middle of the controversy over his first budget and the changes he was seeking (lots of school funding cuts, war with NJEA).  But Kathe Donovan was the only Republican consistently successful in Bergen.  The party was rendered nearly extinct in the 2003-2009 period with Joe Ferriero running the Democratic party.  It was so bad that the GOP was running through chairman and they were either evicted or nearly evicted from their party headquarters becuase their fundraising dried up from a lack of power, leadership, and competence.  

The rift hasn't be resolved and these splits make general elections nearly impossible.  In Passaic, our chairman just resigned and it was a good thing because there were two factions fighting to the death every year.  And with towns like Paterson and Passaic included in the county....that meant years of losses.  

36, Republican, NJ-11  


[ Parent ]
RRR's Answers

1) PA-07. Why? There are three reasons.

 

  1. It protects one of my very favorite Congressmen, a true rising star with an incredible résumé.
  2. The primary electorate in that seat will cause Democrats to nominate some flaming progressive every single time (like George Badey), making Pat Meehan safer than Safe over the course of the decade. 
  3. I'm moving to PA-07 for school in August and it being my new home district where I'll register makes me like it even more, considering it protects one of my favorite Congressmen who will soon be MY Congressman.
2) Eh, no idea.

 



From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

Get in your car
And drive over to Township Line Road. Here's what's expected of you.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
LCL
1) I'll be living in DelCo (most likely).
2) I emailed the Meehan campaign this morning to sign up to volunteer.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Some NY news
1) Maggie Brooks has Conservative and Independence party lines in NY-25 race against Louise Slaughter.

Representative on Congress: Rep. Turner, OH

In the case of NY-25
who decides the Independence nominee? Could the state party committee overrule the county committee? What I read is that Brooks was selected by the Monroe County Independence Party. What if the state party decides to back Slaughter?  

[ Parent ]
Not multi-county
So the state party has no say.  

NY-24

[ Parent ]
Top seats
in some order but absolute order.

1st PA17
2nd VA11
3rd NC4
4th FL9(Grayson)
5th OH3
6th LA2
7th MI9
8th OH9
9th TX26
10th AL7

These are the seats IMO that had the most positive impact on GOP fortunes


SC 7 Of Course
Because I played a small part and consulted with some involved in the map drawing process. The Republican engine of Horry County will continue to move this district more Republican year by year. Attaching some Democratic leaning Pee Dee counties allowed SC 5 to become more Republican and the shift in Jim Clyburn's district along the Georgia border put SC 2 firmly in the Rpublican column.

SC1-Charleston

I would certainly
put SC7 in my top 12.

You know this better then I do that it was the backdoor fix to SC5 & SC2. It includes D area that Mulvaney loved giving up.  That D area it could from SC6 it to take D area from SC2. Sweet deals indeed.

So the SC6 sinkhole and SC7 arrangement allows SC to be 5-2 or more likely 6-1 for the whole decade.  


[ Parent ]
Yep, and you see the payoff
from today's filing. Wilson runs unopposed after being a DCCC target and Mulvaney gets a token challenger as a freshman who took over a historically Democratic seat.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
MN-07
Hearing there are lots of Santorum folks at the CD-7 convention. Hoffman received Santorum's endorsement recently, so that helps her. But Byberg is also really organized, so it is going to be close for the endorsement. Byberg is stronger with Paul folks, who are making a push for national delegates and got a rules change earlier today to help them in that endeavor.

Also, apparently Bills is targeting the CD-7 convention stronger than Severson and Hegseth (who both are inexplicably putting a solid amount of time at the MNCR state convention, where there are relatively few delegates). It is more important for Senate candidates to woo delegates at the CD level, considering most CD and state slates are identical and all 3 candidates have pledged to abide by the party endorsement.

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04


Losing a General Election in a landslide does not generally bode well for one's political future in Minnesota
Ask John Marty how his statewide ambitions are after losing to Carlson in 94. Or how about Mark Kennedy after losing to Klobuchar in 06. Or Skip Humphrey after coming in 3rd in the 98 governor's race. I am not sure that any of these three candidates really want THAT kind of mark around his neck.  

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
WI Recall: GOP to run fake Dems in all 6 elections
which includes the recall election for governor, LG, and 4 state senators.  

Expected
Otherwise the races without Fake Democrats would have their general elections on the same day as the Democratic primary for governor, etc. No one ever really thought they WOULDN'T do this.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
PA House
Why would they cut the PA House to 50? Would they shrink the Senate, too?

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

cost-saving move?


[ Parent ]
Not *to* 50, *by* 50
The plan is to cut the PA House BY 50 seats, to 153. The Senate would stay at 50.  Bad idea in my opinion, because bigger districts make incumbents harder to beat. Probably good for us in a partisan sense, tho, since we have more incumbents. Highly unlikely to pass.

[ Parent ]
Totally against this
I like the idea of two houses with massively different sizes (at least 3x differential) because that's a way to get a different set of representation in either chamber. Bicameral legislatures need to give two different perspectives or just be shrunk down to one chamber.  

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Disagree
By looking at the co-sponsorship list, I think it has a very good chance of passing.  You have a pretty diverse group of legislators from both parties and I suspect it will have broad public support.

I agree though it would help incumbents.  Look at the PA Senate.  Only two seats changed hands during general elections last decade.  Two flipped in special elections though.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
Burr not running for Whip
I think we should be prepared for an open seat in NC in 2016. Everything RB has done as of late makes me feel like he's getting tired of the Senate. http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

R - MD-7

I wonder if this helps Hagan
She's the more popular one, albiet slightly and if people get the feeling Burr is retiring maybe they wait 2 more years for his seat instead of facing Hagan?

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Probably just the opposite actually
Thom Tillis is already gearing up and ready to go against her - if he were having second thoughts he'd have bailed out for the sure thing of NC-9 this year. The thought of Burr retiring is in fact likely to keep McHenry and/or Ellmers waiting and probably clears the primary field for him.  

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
There is two ways to the
Top in DC.  Yes party leadership is one route but look at this as far as Burr is concerned.

Hatch--ancient and in poltical trouble
Grassley-Ancient surely in last term
Snowe Retiring
Kyle-retiring
Crapo-nearly retired last time
Roberts-likely in last term
Enzi-68 right now
Cornyn-senate whip--likely leader one day
Coburn-self term limited-out in 2016
Thune-treasurey secretary or whip?
Burr--last in seniority.

By 2016 there could be only two or three people, maybe less, ahead of him in seniority on the top senate committee.  Taxes, trade, social security, health care, medicare and more flow through committee.  Burr could be on a fast track to importantville.  


[ Parent ]
Third Term
is usually when Senators get better committee assignments in general. No, Burr is on retirement watch for me not only for this but for the fact that his voting record has gotten significantly more mavericky since 2010. The big ones I'm thinking of are DADT Repeal and STOCK, but there have been a few smaller bills as well. A Republican running for re-election in North Carolina would not be taking some of the votes Burr has been lately.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Maybe reading too much into it
2016 is a long way off. I doubt he's decided not to run this far out. I expect him to run again personally.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Of course '16 is a long way
but I still think we shouldn't be surprised by a Burr retirement based on his actions as of late.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
PPP (tease): Romney up about 25 in Maryland
https://twitter.com/#!/ppppoll...

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

That shouldn't surprise anyone.
Maryland seems like a state tailor-made for Romney.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
PPP (tease): Romney up wide Margin in WI

"We're seeing Romney up by a wider margin in Wisconsin than the polls to date as well. Tuesday looks like a blood bath."



19, Republican, KS-03
Standing strong with Senator Roberts and Governor Brownback.


My Favorite District
Is probably my own, MA-7. Not only is it a nice D vote sink, but it's one that probably can't ever be eliminated as the only MMD in New England.

R - MD-7

Was this site down this morning?
I was getting 505 Errors from here around 8 AM this morning. (My time, US Central; four hours ago)

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

Hmm
I logged on around 10 eastern (an hour after you) and everything was fine, but there's a chance that it could have been down for a little while. Sometimes it's just your browser though. Whenever the site doesn't load for me, I quit Firefox or restart my computer, and that almost always does the trick.

[ Parent ]
Was down for me as well
Around 8AM eastern.  I figured it was a Soapblox error as their message popped up.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
MI-14 endorsement
U.S. Rep. Gary Peters, the only white Democrat running in Michigan's new-look 14th District, has picked up the endorsement of the Wayne County Democratic Black Caucus.

http://www.mlive.com/news/detr...

I'm really surprised by how everyone is getting behind Peters.  I still don't think Peters is the best fit for this district.    


Wha? Huh?
You've got to be joking. If this weren't so in-the-weeds, I'd suspect the link to lead me to The Onion. This is hilarious, but also deserves head-scratching. It's not like Hansen Clake is some other white guy, and Peters isn't even from Wayne County.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
It is odd
It surprises me how everyone is endorsing Peters.  I thought the endorsements would at least be somewhat divided between the two of them.  

[ Parent ]
I do not get this at all.
Not a Wayne county guy.
Not an AA.

Don't get it.  


[ Parent ]
Bad Blood for Kirkpatrick?
Hansen Clarke did knock off the former chairwoman of the CBC in a close Democratic Primary.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
I'm guessing Clarke stepped on someone's toes, and they haven't forgotten
Peters is neither black nor from Wayne while Clarke is both, so I'm reading this endorsement as "we want to save this seat for a black Detroit Dem whom we like better than Hansen Clarke."

[ Parent ]
Something like that
Maybe Peters then runs for Governor next cycle and has the support of the AA establishment in MI?

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
I hope not
Someone on DKE mentioned it might have something to do with being a successor for Levin if he retires in 2014.  Peters wouldn't be my top candidate for governor or senator.

[ Parent ]
Quite surprised
ALL of the endorsements are lining up for Peters. It's not like Clarke's a DINO either.

I wonder if this is due to the McNamara machine. Kilpatrick was part of that machine (Kilpatrick, Granholm, Duggan, Ficano) and Clarke beat a member of that last time.

I have no idea about internal inside baseball among democrat, and I don't live in Wayne County either. I'll try and see what I can find out.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
Chap Petersen Running for VA Gov?
Not the most reliable source, but probably the best Democratic candidate in the sense he might actually have a shot at winning in a good Democratic year, which more than can be said for the others.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


I'd welcome it.
I'd rather the Democrats have a decent candidate than Terry McAuliffe have the faintest chance of becoming governor.

25, M, VA-11, moderate R

[ Parent ]
I tried to read his book last night
Single worst book I have ever read. Its genuinely him whining about McCain-Feinglold and 300 pages of his golf game.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Rep. James Sensenbrenner backs Romney
https://twitter.com/#!/seungmi...

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

Mitt should crush in Waukesha
He'll probably win SEWI by a huge margin and maybe even lose the rest of the state. This is enough for a win in WI.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
SC Senate Update
District 28 looks almost like a sure pickup as the Democrats put up a losing 2010 House candidate who received about 30% as their nominee. This is a 61% McCain seat in Horry County that Sen. Dick Elliott is retiring from. Solicitor George Hembree is our nominee. Rating- Likely Republican. District 35 is an open D seat that went about 52% McCain that I am rating a tossup for now. Democrats have the mayor of Sumter's son, attorney Thomas McElveen running. I am also watching District 10, which went 53% McCain, has a black Democrat incumbent, we have a former House member, Jennings McAbee, running. Am rating it lean Democrat for now. Only two seats we have to watch are 20 (Senate President Courson) and 41, the seat of Glenn McConnell who is now Lt. Gov. There is a special election here as well. Paul Thurmond is running here. Both of our seats are likely Republican.
http://www.redracinghorses.com...  

SC1-Charleston

Thanks for the update.
Doesn't that still leave a McCain seat or two on the table.? I guess we'll just have to wait for them to come open.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
3
11, 26 and 27. Reece's Spartanburg district is too marginal to defeat him as an incumbent without a first rate challenger. This seat needs to become open. Setzler has too much personal strength. His district shifted to the left about 5% or so, and we couldn't beat him in the old seat. Three Republicans are running here but I'm not optimisitic. And Sheheen is too popular in his 55% McCain seat, he's running for Gov. again in two years. I think we can get to 29 seats this year from 27.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
ND goes really badly for Santorum
Rick Santorum has been pushing the narrative that he'll pick up more delegates in the caucus states than his straw poll performance indicated.

Apparently, it's the opposite.

http://sayanythingblog.com/ent...

http://sayanythingblog.com/ent...

http://ndpolitics.areavoices.c...

http://sayanythingblog.com/ent...

In fact, Romney may have gotten 20 of the 28 delegates.
https://twitter.com/#!/lukehel...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Really really unfair system
In no way should a person who placed third in the caucuses get 4/5 of the delegates. Any system that allows for such things is undemocratic and should be thrown out.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
I'd be really careful reading much into stories published very late yesterday & today
As many news sites will have a few fake news stories mixed in with the new ones.



42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
Lol!
Doesn't seem like one here...  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Several years ago
I remember one news site in Memphis on April 1 announcing that University of Memphis had been invited to join the SEC.
Ever since then I've been extremely skeptical of all news stories released on this date.



42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
April Fool's Day news stories
I've learned not to believe anything I read on this day that sounds the least bit suspicious or unrealistic. My favorite such story though was one that happened back in 1996 in USA Today where a headline stated that Taco Bell was purchasing naming rights to the Liberty Bell and it was going to be called the "Taco Liberty Bell". What's amazing is the number of people that apparently believed it, because Taco Bell's corporate office and the National Park Service got a bunch of angry calls from people opposed to the move.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
My favorite was 1997
The lead story on April Fools' Day that year was that 3 feet of snow was on the way. A lot of people passed it off as a joke; sure enough, the worst blizzard in a generation came a few hours later. The cruel part was that to that point, the winter of 96-97 had been one of the most mild in history.

[ Parent ]
This morning I wake u, read the paper
about how Santorum is trying hard to get his supporters to make sure not to vote for anyone who favors Romney to be a state delegate here in WA. Then I get online and read this story. Interesting that what Santorum is trying to do in WA had happen to him in ND. I just laughted when I read from that story "The process, clearly, wasn't fair. Former NDGOP Chairman Gary Emineth, a Santorum supporter, called the delegate selection process a "railroad job."


26, Republican, WA-03 (represented by wonderful Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler).

[ Parent ]
What appears to have happened
North Dakota doesn't appear to have a true caucus. Those sites did NOT select delegates to go to the state convention; and so had no way to enforce their decision.
Instead the delegates to the state convention apparently having already been chosen in advance.

Doesn't appear to be any point in any future ND caucus for someone to attend that's not active throughout the year.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
MN-7 also questionable
Minnesota Mike ‏ @MinnesotaMike1  Reply  Retweet  Favorite · Open
@FHQ Santorum also lost a "projected" delegate to Ron Paul in the MN-07 CD Convention. Santorum ended up with 2 Delegates, Paul 1. #mngop

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

That's true
It went 2-1 Santorum-Paul. The other two Paul delegates lost by 3-4 votes each.

And of course, State Senator Gretchen Hoffman was crushed by 2010 nominee Lee Byberg today. Hoffman was just swamped by getting in late and not having the organization. Besides that, her team screwed up presenting the Santorum endorsement, even though the Santorum delegates were in the majority. It was hard to tell what was being shown when the message was shown on a big screen apparently. With the Paul forces largely behind Byberg and big numbers of Santorum folks sticking with him, he easily clinched the endorsement.

It is not expected for the NRCC to keep playing here with Byberg again.

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04


[ Parent ]
Question to the floor:
Do FEC filing periods end on Eastern Time, or at 12:00 midnight in each time zone? I ask because I just made a donation that was in time here in West Tennessee, but not in Eastern Time.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

Does anyone think there will be any surprise retirements this cycle?
Here are the remaining filing deadlines (at least according to Politics1.com):

4/2 - CO, NJ
4/5 - TN
4/13 - ND
4/20 - OK
5/15 - MI
5/18 - WA
5/25 - GA
5/30 - AZ
6/1 - AK, KS, WI, WY
6/5 - HI, MA, MN
6/8 - FL
6/14 - VT
6/15 - NH
7/10 - DE
8/17 - LA

I think the biggest surprise could be John Barrow. I cannot see him even coming close in his new seat, so he might realize towards the end that it may be best to end his career voluntarily, rather than being embarrassed with a bad loss.

Don Young is another possibility. I could see him getting an ally to file right before the deadline and then abruptly retiring right at the deadline.

Collin Peterson could surprise us all. Perhaps not a huge surprise, but John Mica could hang it up as well and allow Sandy Adams to keep her seat.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


MA-SEN
Brown +2 in Boston Globe/UNH poll. http://www.boston.com/news/loc...

Weird poll though and the write-up is typical for the Boston Globe.  

25, Male, R, NY-10


Isn't this the pollster
that had Coakley up by, like, 25 points, a week before the election?

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
Yes
But it wasn't 25.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
15% & 2 Weeks
Considering how fast things moved in that election, can't really kill them for that.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
UNH is a decent pollster
Suffolk has become the gold standard for MA. UNH is probably a cut above WNEY and UMass Lowell, which are both newer to the polling scene and haven't proven themselves yet. PPP and ARG both did well here in 2010.

[ Parent ]
There are two UNH Polls
There is an independent operation which tends to be very good, and was spot on in 2010.

Then there are their polls with the Globe. These tend not to push undecideds(they give undecided as an option rather than waiting for voters to chose it), and often use strange wording. In 2010 they released one of the most useless statewide polls ever showing every candidate for downballot office ranging randomly between 27% and 33%.

I am sure at least 35% are planning to vote for Warren and at least 37% for Brown. Its not so much that the poll is bad as that its useless for drawing any sorts of conclusions or info.

Though fyi, having talked to a bunch of Massachusetts Democrats last week I get the impression most of them think Brown is up 5 or so.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Ron Johnson endorses Romney
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

Right now, I'm thinking around a 49-34-7-7 Romney victory here.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


Very disappointed
In Jim DeMint for picking so many RINOs in 2010. Every SCF endorsed 2010 Senator has endorsed Romney, except for Rand Paul. Jim DeMint is a RINO supporter!!  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Christine O'Donnell=RINO
Even SHE supports the twofaceflipfloppermassachusettslibrul

I wonder if Angle and Buck would have supported Mitt as well


21-Cubano, R, CA-38
City Commission Vice-Chair, College Republican Club President


[ Parent ]
ND-Gov, ND-PSC
Dalrymple wins nomination with about 70% of the convention vote against architect Paul Sorum. Apparently Sorum's speech was very well received, he might be one to keep an eye on in the future. http://bismarcktribune.com/new...

In other races, State Sen. Randy Christmann defeated State Rep. Blair Thoreson for the PSC nomination. http://www.wisconsinrapidstrib...

Today is the two most highly contested endorsements, for Schools Superintendent and ND-AL.

R - MD-7


Democrats have their first challenger to Christie 2013!
http://www.politickernj.com/55...

Saying he's sick and tired of being called "numbnuts" by friends and colleagues alike, Deputy Majority Leader Reed Gusciora announced his bid for Governor in 2013 to a throng of supporters outside the state house today.  The eighth term Assemblyman will run on the Real Liberal Democratic line, and will select a Lieutenant Governor's pick, "once he finds another one."

"Once the tax revenue comes rolling in from the new casinos, marijuana sales and same-sex marriage licenses, nobody will ever hear of property taxes again."

Finally Gusciora commented upon the growing rift between the north and south regions of the state.  "On day one I plan on signing an Executive Order making it illegal to refer to "North" or "South" Jersey," said Gusciora.  "In fact, I plan on introducing a measure just to simply call our state 'Jersey'.  

27, R, PA-07.


they've been known
For their 4/1 jokes on that site.  Once there was a ton of big breaking news on 3/31 and 4/1 and no one believed it.  I can't remember what it was though...

[ Parent ]
doh
You spoiled it for the people here!

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
OWS (provisionally) endorses Ron Paul for President
http://www.nycga.net/

The General Assembly has agreed to officially endorse the Paul presidential ticket. If Paul wins the nomination he can carry the OWS endorsement only if Dr. Cornel West is accepted as Vice President.

I suspect they might change their mind tomorrow, however....

Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"


Why? OWSers . . .
are fools all year long.

[ Parent ]
ND-Supt
Mandan School Board President Kirsten Baesler narrowly beats State Rep. David Monson for the nomination. http://www.grandforksherald.co...

R - MD-7

KY-04: Massie goes on the air
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/s...

NWOTSOTB, but it did play during the Louisville-Kentucky game. Cites Davis praising Massie on the House floor after he won his first race.

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04


interesting
to see how this race plays out.

I am not sure who Rand Paul is supporting in this race?


[ Parent ]
He has not endorsed but
One of his staffers / campaign workers is heavily involved in this race. I don't know if Paul himself has  directly endorsed in this race or if he will.

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04

[ Parent ]
Sorry unclear
One of Paul's staffers is heavily involved in Massie's campaign.

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04

[ Parent ]
Anybody know much about this race?
Looking at the candidate list, there are 7 Republicans running. I seem to remember that state Rep. Alecia Webb-Edgington is the establishment favorite. Obviously, from the above it appears that Thomas Massie is the Paulite candidate. It would also appear that Boone County Judge-Executive Gary Moore would be a strong candidate too(Boone County is part of metro Cincinnati). None of the others appear to be strong candidates, although I guess it's important to be mindful of James Lankford coming out of seemingly nowhere to beat several more experienced candidates in OK-5 back in 2010.  

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
I think the winner
comes from those three but Webb-Edington has most establishment support.So stay tuned.


[ Parent ]
I would've supported Massie, but
if he's a Paulite (especially a Ron Paulite), then no thank you. Webb-Edgington looks to have a stellar resume, given her time in the Kentucky State Police. I'll go with her.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
More on the race
One of the candidates is Marcus Carey, a prominent blogger and Republican politico. There are rumors that he wanted a job with Massie and didn't get it (both have certain connections to the same folks that elected Rand Paul), so he then decided to run himself.

And the size of the buy was $7,000- just enough to get on for the game. The only other candidate to make a buy was Carey, a $200 cable run. CN2 has a good write-up: http://mycn2.com/politics/mass...

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04


[ Parent ]
My favorite district - MI-07
The reason I pick MI-07 is that it cleanly and subtlety helps Tim Walberg. It's by no means an easy district, but it takes out his worst area because of Mark Schauer and RINO Joe Schwarz are no longer in the district. It also removes 1/2 of Scio Township, giving that to John Dingell. It doesn't encroach on the good areas of Upton, Amash, or Rogers either. While the partisan changes are minor, if any, the removal of Walberg's worst area is a big win in changes.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

Search




Advanced Search


(C) RedRacingHorses
Powered by: SoapBlox