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Political Roundup For April 6, 2012

by: SCRep

Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 09:00:00 AM EDT


President

New York: A new Quinnipiac poll in New York finds Mitt Romney way ahead of Rick Santorum among GOP primary voters, 54% to 21%, with Newt Gingrich at 9% and Ron Paul at 8%. Obama leads Romney 56 to 33 percent and tops Santorum 59 to 30 percent.

Pennsylvania: A new Public Policy Polling survey in Pennsylvania shows Mitt Romney leading Rick Santorum, 42% to 37%, with Ron Paul at 9% and Newt Gingrich at 6%. In the last month, Romney has gained 17 points, going from 25% to 42%. Meanwhile Santorum's dropped 6 points, from 43% to 37%.

Santorum: The Santorum campaign is pushing back against the notion that Mitt Romney has the nomination sewn up. Santorum disputes the delegate counts being reported in the media. Santorum's camp said its internal count shows Romney with only 571 delegates while Santorum has 342. CNN's current delegate estimate, however, shows Romney with 657 and Santorum with 273. The campaign reached its version of the delegate count by making some assumptions that many experts don't believe will happen.

Senate

Florida: Rep. Connie Mack will report he raised more than $1 million in his first full quarter since entering the Senate race. Mack entered the race last November and reported raising about $750,000 at the end of the year, including about $300,000 transferred from a House account. Sen. Bill Nelson ended last year with $8.4 million in the bank.

Indiana: A new Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground poll finds Sen. Richard Lugar leading primary challenger Richard Mourdock, 42% to 35%, with another 23% undecided. The two are evenly splitting the vote among the 72% of primary voters identifying with the Republican Party.

Tennessee: Actress and Democratic activist Park Overall filed for the US Senate seat of Sen. Bob Corker. She was best known for her former role in NBC's Empty Nest television show.

House

AZ-8: Former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords aide Ron Barber raised $550,000 in the first seven weeks of his campaign in the special election to replace Giffords. Barber is unopposed in the Democratic primary, but four Republicans are running in the GOP primary, including Jesse Kelly, who came within 2 points of unseating Giffords in 2010.

CO-6: Rep. Mike Coffman raised $532,000 in the first quarter of the year as he prepares to battle with Democratic challenger Joe Miklosi in the 6th Congressional District. Coffman has $1.37 million in cash on hand.

MA-6: Republican Richard Tisei raised $350,000 in the first quarter in his race against Rep. John Tierney. Tisei, a former state Senator and GOP nominee for lieutenant governor, had $454,000 in cash on hand at the end of last month. In the fourth quarter of 2011, Tisei outraised Tierney $312,000 to $161,000.

PA-17 The Campaign for Primary Accountability has launched a $70,000 ad buy against Rep. Tim Holden. The ad accuses him of cozying to Wall Street interests. The group said earlier this month that it would spend $200,000 against Holden. Holden is locked in a competitive primary with Lackawanna County attorney Matt Cartwright in his redrawn district.

TN-6: Lou Ann Zelenik, who lost the 6th District Republican primary to Diane Black by 283 votes in 2010, has filed for a rematch. Zelenik's home was drawn out of the district during the remap, but she announced that she has relocated to a home inside the district.

TN-9: President Obama endorsed U.S. Rep. Steve Cohen on Thursday, hours after fellow Democrat Tomeka Hart made her run against him for the 9th District seat official. Obama waited until July in 2010 to endorse Cohen, then running against former Memphis Mayor Willie Herenton.

Governor

Indiana: In the Indiana gubernatorial race, U.S. Rep. Mike Pence has a 44 to 31% lead over former Democratic House speaker John Gregg, with 5% backing Libertarian Rupert Boneham. 71% of the general election voters have not heard of Gregg, while only 30% have not heard of Pence.
SCRep :: Political Roundup For April 6, 2012
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Political Roundup For April 6, 2012 | 90 comments
8.2%
A disappointing jobs report, especially with initial filings dropping all month.  So it seems like less people are being laid off/fired but also less people being hired.  Hopefully this is just a one month blip and we can get back to 200,000+ next month.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
yea
After unemployment claims dropped, I had high hopes for 200k+. Either way, this is better than losing 100k jobs like we were doing in mid 08.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
Great roundup
for a Friday!!!  Lots of news.  Its follow the money time and by my reckoning there is alot of it out there.  
Santorum campaign
They keep sticking with all these assumptions that won't happen. Sad.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
More on Santorum complaints
http://www.politico.com/news/s...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
probably have to do with upcoming convention assumptions from caucus states
I'm afraid I'd need the breakdown at the state level from the Santorum camp to comment one way or the other. APs model is rather simplistic itself.

In any case next Saturday will give actual numbers from a couple of those states with more to follow the following Saturday.

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
120,000 jobs in March
Why no one is celebrating an unemployment-rate drop
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

Mitt Romney ‏ @MittRomney  Reply  Retweet  Favorite · Open
This is a weak jobs report that shows the employment market remains stagnant. Americans are paying a high price for @BarackObama's policies.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Romney really is clinging to that meme
If unemployment is 7.x come November (which seems quite likely) it is going to fall on deaf ears. It is nearly nonsensical at this point now.  

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
Romney would be smart
to focus on "why my policies would be better" when the economy is gaining jobs.  Of course if this drop in job gains becomes a stall in the economy, the meme he is currently using could work well.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
120K
is less then 220K which is less the 320K which is less then 420K new jobs per month.  Clearly when we need at least 120K in new jobs a month to provide jobs for those entering the market its a legitmate arguement for Mitt.

Is it, as you suggest, the best arguement no but you must deal with today's news today.  The jobs report is the news today and you have to blend it into your message.

That being said Romney's best avenue of attack is as follows:

1st Obama's policies have made the short term and long term economic worse.  Job growth has been hampered by his regulations and emphasis government solutions to economic woes.  The huge deficit and debt run up under Obama has made the long term prospects for the USA worse.

2nd the Obama era has seen the most profound drop in the quality of life in America since the great depression.  We have seen more jobs lost and more people exiting the economy in the last 3 1/2 years since the 1930s. This month even as 120K jobs are added more people leave the workforce. One reason is that jobs are not paying off to lure people away from their TVs. We are seeing a decrease in the quality of jobs even as we adding them to our economy. The housing market since 2009 has had the worst 3 1/2 period in history. Even houses bought at supposed bottoms in the last few years have lost value in some cases.  We are reliving the Waltons as multi generational home lifes are becoming more common in the Obama era.

These are the best lines of attack for Romney.  

[ Parent ]
The economy
If Romney doesn't focus on the economy, what should he focus on? Take an issue out of thin air and make it an issue? I don't think doing things like "Republicans have a war on women" or "Republicans want to take your Medicare" would work for the GOP. Is anyone other than the base believe "Democrats want to take your guns?" or "Democrats have a war on religion?"

These types of arguments are difficult to prove and the people who will buy it are already voting for you. And really, issues only work when people feel it themselves. Do I have a job? Is my company giving raises?  If I answer yes to the first and no to the second, the swing voter is voting Republican regardless what the unemployment number is. If he has a job, he's voting for Obama. People had jobs in 1996 and 2004. So the Presidents got re-elected.

Mitt could try to push immigration or Iran, but these aren't hot button issues. The "Obama is going to give away the store to Russia" story won't last long. Healthcare could be a big issue, but it'll be one things if Obamacare is upheld and another if it's struck down.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Your two big points
1st, The regulations argument won't hold much water as Obama has passed around the same as W and other Presidents.  Maybe if Romney pointed to some specific ones that might work, but I haven't really heard anyone make an argument on specific regulations.  And even if Mitt does go that route it allows the President to attack him on trying to continue Bush policies by going back to those days.  I don't see this as a winning strategy.  The debt argument however is a valid one and one that there will most certainly be a big debate on.

The second argument is also debatable.  How much of what you are talking about happened during Obama's first 6 months?  Even his first 3 months?  

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

[ Parent ]
You contradict yourself
First, you say that Obama passed the same number of regulations that Bush did and then you say that attacking the regulations will be continuing Bush policies? Yet that's exactly what you're saying he did. Yes, I know Obama passed different regulations, but his meme has been that the reason we're in this mess is because Bush didn't pass regulations. You can't exactly argue you've passed the same number if you're saying he didn't pass them.

And regulations are either general for people who don't feel them or specific for people who feel certain ones. Obama has been able to run to the people who aren't knowledgable about regulations by saying Bush had an unregulated environment. That sounds right to people. Those who find specific Obama regulations impacting them are people who Mitt should campaign to.

Romney needs to make the argument that this is the slowest recovery since the Great Depression and this recovery, unlike previous ones, had an $800 billion stimulus package. The President may make the unprovable argument that his $800 billion saved us from the worst recession since the Depression. That stimulus was supposed to make this recovery faster and less painful. Yet it hasn't.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
When Obama pushed Cap and Trade
right out of the gate in 2009 it sent shock waves through energy and manufacturing companies.  Think coal, natuaral gas and oil development plus every utility. Likewise every company that is a major power user called into to question their current operations plus any future expansions.  It just slammed to a halt so many aspects of the USA economy.  Within weeks of that move Obamacare was introduced and another 1/6 of the economy went shell shocked.  Obama's regulations and proposed legislation were body blows to the US economy.  The recovery should have started in 2009 but the Prez and his policies postponed it.  

No the President has his hands all over the recession.  

[ Parent ]
there's nothing in his meme that's incorrect
It was a weak jobs report.  Look at the market today.  "Clinging"?  Like the "It's all still Bush's fault" isn't clinging?
[ Parent ]
A 7.x unemployment is meaningless . . .
absent job growth.  

You do realize that the sharp decline in the unemployment rate is a result of an unprecedented decline in the workforce participation rate & more and more people exhausting unemployment benefits?  Otherwise, such declines would be accompanied by huge job numbers.

But Obama and Dems in general continue to ignore this and harp on an unemployment rate that does not reflect reality.  Given the low participation rate, we should increasingly focus on U-6 unemployment, which is above 14.0%

What chutzpah on the part of the Dems!!  

[ Parent ]
my favorite
Is some of these Democrats in Congress trumpeting how great things are with ~100K were the EXACT SAME ONES that were wagging their finger at Bush when he was adding 300-400k/month and saying "They are just low-skilled hamburger flipper jobs!"  I never hear any such complaints anymore for the smaller increases we now see...
[ Parent ]
The real rate would still likely be double that
U3 numbers only tell part of the story. A lot of people with this still ongoing recession (if not 'economics' definition, the on the ground definition) still are out of work or underemployed. Many took early retirements, are discouraged workers, working at McDonalds/Walmart, etc.


MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  
[ Parent ]
Veepstakes! Catch the fever!
http://www.politico.com/news/s...

Portman and Pawlenty seen as the top options.  I think Pawlenty would be the much better option for Romney, but would not mind one bit if he chose Portman.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

Pawlenty
If you want to talk about a "safe, unoffensive pick" he is your man. He has slightly fewer political apostasies  in his records (although he 06 campaign ads where you couldn't tell if he was a Democrat or not may come back to haunt him). He doesn't put Minnesota in play, at all. But if Romney is looking for a governor that is going to stay on script and not scare anyone away, Pawlenty is a good pick. Although Pawlenty may prefer to actually be AG. And who knows, his wife is a judge, so maybe he wants a Scalia's or Kennedy's seat.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
And for the record
As much as I dislike most (but not all) of Pawlenty's political positions, he is legitimately a nice guy. He and Klobuchar are actually fairly close on a personal level.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
Portman
Seems to be the FOTM.  

Male, LA-06/LA-01 (Home is where the heart is)
Cassidy, Tillis, Rounds, Latham for Senate!  
[ Parent ]
It's like July 2008
All over again!
[ Parent ]
I think Portman probably was on McCain's shortlist...
But there was never a time when I really thought he would get the VP-nomination that year. I don't think he would have helped much, politically speaking.

Age 42. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.
[ Parent ]
Portman
If it is Portman as VP and the GOP ticket wins, does Kasich appoint Steve Austria to the Senate?  He was willing to step aside in redistricting, so I feel the party owes him.

33, R, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Austria
would be an OK statewide candidate, but by no means the best person to place there. I'd go with Mary Taylor if I were Kasich.

What I would definitely give Austria is the Treasurer's job if Mandel manages to beat Brown. SA's a financial planner by trade and has a decade of state government experience, so that seems like a perfect landing spot for him.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

[ Parent ]
I shall keep my personal comments to myself
http://www.jsonline.com/news/w...

But the results should come in faster now.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

RIP Wauke$ha
You will be missed
[ Parent ]
The only major R
county that I can recall having election reporting woes.
Here's a partial list of D cities or counties that are always late and slow in reporting results. Essex county NJ, Philly, Baltimore, Cuyahago, Franklin, Detroit, Cook, St Louis city, Lake County, Fulton, Broward, Palm Beach, Miami Dade, Shelby TN, Denver and I could go on.

I think DeKalb county Georgia finished their GOP primary vote count from Super Tuesday last week. So it was bad but this week they still beat some counties like Milwaukee to 100% counted.  

[ Parent ]
Not Philly
They always come in first, which makes it look like the Dem is heading for a blowout win even when they aren't. Cook is sort of the same way, although they're so big that they come in both early and late.

Dade and Cuyahoga are the two big offenders in my book.

[ Parent ]
Philadelphia
Philadelphia and Allegheny usually report first because of Pennsylvania's reporting practices. Results have to be driven from the individual polling places to a central location then counted again. This means large and populous counties with lots of little towns usually take forever to report. Berks, Lancaster and York are infamous for slow reporting for this reason.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
TN Thoughts
TN-Sen: This could be very funny. I haven't seen Overall's issue positions yet, but I'll go ahead and predict that she'll run as a liberal disguised as 'moderate.' She'll probably have a few positions to try and back up the moderate image, most likely including pro-gun and/or pro-life positions. The first is likelier than the second, because as we learned in Shooter, Tennessee is "the patron state of shootin' stuff."

TN-06: This is a bit of a strange move, since Desjarlais seems more vulnerable from a rural v.s suburban perspective than Black does. Also, Zelenik used to be Chairwoman of the Rutherford County GOP, which would give her a base in the 4th. I guess that Desjarlais just has too much TP cred and that since Zelenik came so close to beating Black last time, she thinks it will be close again, barring a scandal, Black should easily win.

TN-09: This might get interesting. Hart is no Herenton, and even though some out in the county dislike her because of what happened when she chaired the board of Memphis City Schools (the district surrendered its charter and left the county schools holding the bag), that shouldn't hurt her too much in the 9th, which is mostly within the Memphis city limits. Hart has some name rec, but doesn't carry the name 'Ford,' which can cause Independents and Republicans to vote in the Democratic primary for the Cohen (it might happen with her too, but no one knows). On the R side of things, there are actually two candidates running. 2010 nominee Charlotte Bergmann is running, as is former County Commissioner, 2010 TN-08 primary candidate, and all-around local GOPer Dr. George Flinn. Neither seem to have a good path to victory.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

comments
TN-06: Agreed, Zelenik would have a better shot in TN 4.

Either way though she loses.

Memphis City schools dissolved: When did that happen? There was a proposal to do that a decade or two ago, and the idea was dropped when all the suburbs threatened to secede from Shelby and form a new county.

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
You've missed a lot.
The county schools have been trying to lock themselves in as a Special District for years, but they couldn't get the lege to move. The city school board finally got the votes to surrender its charter, and the residents approved it (many don't like paying the extra city education tax). Consolidation of city and county government failed miserably in a previous election, so this was seen as being a way to get most of what was desired. The county can't do anything about it. Consolidation has been forced. Now the incorporated suburbs are getting ready to set up their own separate school systems. Germantown, Collierville, Bartlett, and possibly Millington are going to have votes to raise property taxes for the new districts once the county schools are consolidated (a judge said that that has to happen first). Arlington and Lakeland are pooling their resources. David Pickler, the former SCS chairman, thinks that this has given the lege the kick it needs to finally create the Special District, so those individual systems may end up being short-lived.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
I Don't See a Republican Legislature...
...Torpedoing the creation of the equivalent of a bunch of suburban school districts.  
[ Parent ]
You don't understand.
It would be like recreating the county school district. By Tennessee state law, you can only have a certain number of school districts (I think that the number is six) covering any part of a single county. Because MCS is a district (and there is a new special district covering a few schools that are failing in the extreme in North Memphis), someone gets left out, and the unincorporated areas are over a barrel. Also, Bolton High School, one of the better public high schools in the county, is in an unincorporated area just north of Lakeland. No one is quite sure what's going to happen to it. A new Arlington-Lakeland district might be able to buy it and operate it, but no one is sure because it's outside of both cities. That district would have Arlington High School anyway. A lot of Bartlett kids go to Bolton, and Bartlett High School doesn't have the capacity to absorb them. And even if those problems are worked out, if the new consolidated school district keeps Bolton, they'll be so far under capacity in terms of students that they'd either have to bus kids out into the country from North Memphis, or Cordova, or somewhere else, or just demolish a pretty new high school? Now do you see why the lege would create a new Special District?

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
*not MCS, since it was dissolved. It would be the new consolidated district.


20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
I see
I'm see there was some reason the legislature had for limiting it to 6 when they passed that law.

Well, I would suggest the closet suburb to Bolton High School annex the school and a corridor to it. (Lakeland?)
Then have Bartlett either join the Lakeland - Arlington district or pay them money to take in the kids that Bartlett High school can't absorb.

Yup, better solution is a special school district that includes all the suburbs plus the unincorporated areas outside of Memphis reserve annexation area.



41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Lakeland would love to annex Bolton, but
it's not in their annexation area. As far as I know, Lakeland is mixed out. They've annexed their whole reserve, and all the unincorporated areas are someone's reserve.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Just checked the wikipedia articles and google maps
But they left me even more confused

No article on the unincorporated area of Bolton itself : Boo! to the wikipedia.
I just remember it's somewhere in the NE corner.

The Bolton High School article is using Arlington as the nearby town to distinguish it from similar named High Schools across the country and notes its northwest of Arlington.

This could be because the Arlington, TN article is noting that   "Since its incorporation, Arlington has grown to incorporate the former community of Bolton"

But on google maps, there's no community label for Bolton at all.

It is clear though that the High school is indeed currently outside all city limits.
But; since google maps is not denoting the city limit boundaries between Lakeland & Arlington, its not clear which  of those towns annexed across the river up to Pleasant Ridge between Brunswick Road and a minor road east of Stewart Road.

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
*maxed


20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Flinn
you gotta wonder what he's thinking. This is somebody who could be a credible state-wide candidate in the not-too-distant future if he wanted to; I can't imagine why he wants to blow his money on TN-9.  

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
He has a lot of it to blow.


20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
He was really dumb
for not running for Governor in 2010. He probably could've won that primary as the only Westerner competing against 3 Easterners.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
That might have worked, except
thatexcept that Haslam started running introduction ads during the Olympics, a full year before the primary election. Regional tactics usually only work when either one candidate is especially disliked in some areas, or candidates are not well known in each others' regions. That didn't happen in TN's 2010 R Gov primary. I worked for Zach Wamp, who aggressively pursued regional strategies. He broke down his economic plan by region, and aggressively courted West Tennessee. In the end, it didn't matter. Haslam and Wamp received virtually the same percentages in Shelby County that they got statewide. Oh, and our former county D.A., Bill Gibbons (R), briefly did run for governor that year. He got little traction, so he dropped out and endorsed Haslam. He is now a cabinet secretary.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Except Flinn
would have been the only one besides Haslam with strong self-funding capability and the only one actually from West TN. That's different psychologically for most people than an Easterner aggressively targeting the West.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
Would he have not run for TN-08?
He almost won the primary.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
TN-8
There just weren't enough Shelby Republicans there to overcome Fincher's rural edge. In retrospect I'm surprised Flinn did as well as he did.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
AR-04 Democrat Q. Byrum Hurst
(love the name) raised $100,000 in about three and a half weeks. This should at least keep it semi-competitive in the fall.
MN-8
I took this from DKE.

http://morningtake.posterous.c...

Given what I know, I can't imagine that Clark is doing well. A push-poll obviously helps when it's 1-sided. I still give CLark maybe a 10% chance at this primary. She really needs to go away.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

She has a shot
The thing is that neither Anderson or Nolan have the money to go seriously up on the air, whereas Clark does. While the numbers show Clark is down and her name req probably isn't too hot on the favorable/unfavorable, she has money to have some fun.  

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04
[ Parent ]
Maine Senate & Congressional Poll
King 56% (I)
Summers 22% (R)
Dunlap 12% (D)

Cynthia Dill actually leads the Democratic primary, but was not included in a general election scenario.

ME-01:
Pingree 61% (D)
Courtney 28% (R)

ME-02:
Michaud 53% (D)
Raye 37% (R)

http://bangordailynews.com/201...

I had this feeling
that Raye, no matter how good a candidate he might be, was not going to make ME-02 competitive, and I don't think that I was alone. Also, I expected King to be doing well, but not that well. I guess Nainers really liked his tenure as Governor.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
This is about what I expected for King
I doubt he'll get much below 50%, he's just that much of an institution and fits the state perfectly in ideology.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
What he'll have to do
King will have to take the majority of the Democratic votes and something like 25% of the Republican and 70% of the independent to break 50%.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
For Angus King to get 50%...
I think the Democrat candidate (whoever that turns out to be) would have to virtually disappear from the campaign. Which I suppose is possible. But I think even a mediocre GOP candidate can grab 40-41% statewide.

Age 42. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.
[ Parent ]
The GOP Floor in Maine
is way below 40%. I'd say it's about 25; Woodcock was running against 3 left-of-center candidates in 2006 and only got 30.

I stand by my approximate prediction of King 50, Summers 30, Dill 20.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

[ Parent ]
Not a valid comparison, IMHO
My comment about a GOP nominee winning 40-41% was meant just for this particular race, not as a general assertion that 40% is "the floor" for any Republican nominee in Maine, overall.

Even with those caveats, I think there are some important differences between this Senate election and the 2006 election for Governor.

Woodcock was (1.) a state senator running his first statewide race, (2.) against an incumbent (3.) after barely winning the GOP primary, (4.) in a horrible, horrible year for Republicans. Plus the 4th-place candidate (the Green nominee) got 10%. It doesn't seem like this will be a 4-way race, but we'll see.

Right now, the Maine GOP has three candidates who have already won statewide office (Atty General, State Treasurer, Sec. of State). Plus 2012 does not seem to be nearly as toxic a year for the GOP as 2006 was (again: we'll see).

Age 42. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.

[ Parent ]
SoS, AG, Treas
aren't elected offices in ME. They're appointed by the legislature.

You may be right about the year, but the GOP primary is just as wide open as it was in '06, and Angus King is a heckuva lot stronger as a non-incumbent than Baldacci was as an incumbent.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

[ Parent ]
Didn't know those offices were appointed
And I admit that does make a difference.

Even so, I think the GOP nominee will be much closer to 40 than to 30 when it's all said and done.

I think we both agree that, barring some extreme and unforeseen events, Angus King will be the next Senator from Maine.

Age 42. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.

[ Parent ]
Yep, it's King's seat to lose
And in the end that's all that counts.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
And by the way
Obama leads Romney by 18 points here (55-37), including a 7 point lead in ME-02 (48-41) and a 28 point lead in ME-01 (61-33).

More evidence Romney isn't doing better than McCain in the Northeast.

[ Parent ]
Maine poll is wrong IMO
as the partisan breakdown of the poll is as follows:

39.3 D
29.3R
31.4I

Actual party registration is as follows

32.11D
27.93R
36.54I

So this poll is way heavy on democrats.  

So you can have Obama ahead by 14% if you have 7% more Ds in your poll. I might this is a registered voter poll.  It should be pretty easy to screen your poll to match registered voter stats.  This poll is a good guess IMO.  

[ Parent ]
How about
How does changing the partisan spread to the normal Maine breakdown?

And lets remember that not every election goes about the exact party lines.

I would bet changing it and using the crosstabs don't change much beyond a point or two imo.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

[ Parent ]
MI-7
MI-7 - Joe Schwarz still hasn't decided.

Run Joe Run. You're going to lose, maybe even in the primary.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

Schwarz
is neither fish or fowl in MI7.  He is not a resident. He is not a democrat.  He is not a Republican.  He is not a candidate as of yet. He is lined with Gov Schwarz who is supporting the GOP incumbent.

There is a local D candidate who has been trying to line up support and money for months now while the Hamlet of Calhoun county has been courted by DC folks.  Of course the DCCC apparently has made it clear that this local guy cannot count on any national support as they are spending time and money courting an outsider to run for the seat.  That sends a great message to the candidate who actually running for the seat.  

[ Parent ]
Texas to become WTA?
Effort to change Texas primary to winner-take-all is on.  This sounds like a last ditch effort by the ant-Romneys.

http://www.statesman.com/news/...

33, R, IN-09

Winner Take All
The RNC ruled it out yesterday.
Also, even if it did happen, this could seriously backfire on them. Romney could just run up the margins in the metro areas, which he will once his Death Star rolls into the state.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17
[ Parent ]
TX cities seem much more Republican than most areas though
Austin & El Paso are likely Romney's best areas.

But Houston & Dallas are much more conservative than other cities their size.

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
The *counties* are more conservative
The counties Houston & Dallas are in are more conservative than others their size, but the city of Houston itself is heavily liberal & Dallas is becoming more so every year.
[ Parent ]
The cities are too
Dallas is more conservative since it has a larger percentage of upper and upper-middle class residents than Houston, but find me any cities their size that are under 66% Obama. Also, Dallas itself hasn't moved much, I mean it did become more Dem because of population growth among minorities in South, East and West Dallas, but North Dallas is still as conservative as it was 10 years ago. What moved Dallas County from EVEN in 2004 to D+4 in 2008 was minority growth outside the city of Dallas, but within the county.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17
[ Parent ]
Houston itself is actually fairly Conservative for a major city
The city voted like 61% Obama I think, which is not too shabby for a city that's only like 30% White (less than New York) and is over 2 million people.  A lot of that however is because the city limits include a number of areas that are essentially suburbs.

As to the original assertion, I don't think Santorum will with either the Dallas or Houston areas, at least not by a lot.  These regions are fairly Conservative, but in the fiscal sense as well as socially, so I don't see the voters there coming out strong for Santorum like rural East Texas would.

22, Libertarian Republican CA-14
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"

[ Parent ]
RNC Ruling
I cannot find that RNC ruling, do you have a link?  It seems other outlets (Weigel, etc..) are starting to pick up the story.

33, R, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Not going to matter anyway
Everybody except the Santorum campaign thinks the race is essentially over now. I expect even they will start thinking so after the April 24 contests, definitely if they lose Pennsylvania. The desperate and delusional nature the Santorum campaign has got into is really astounding.

41, R, NE-1.
[ Parent ]
PA
This is why Romney must beat Santorum in Pennsylvania to put this game to an end.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
Recruit Dennis!
State Sen Derek Kilmer has Norm Dicks' backing, $346k in bank & no opponent. #WA06

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
Kilmer
Has done a good job of turning a potential Lean D seat into likely or even Safe D.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
Christie in Israel
http://www.politico.com/news/s...

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
Marino
undergoing kidney surgery, prognosis good. Best wishes to him and his family. http://www.northcentralpa.com/...

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
Brown $3.4M
$15M CoH. http://atr.rollcall.com/massac...

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
I was hoping it would be higher.


21, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Rom 8:38-39    
[ Parent ]
CT-Sen
Left-wing fringe candidate Lee Whitnum calls Murphy a whore in a debate. http://atr.rollcall.com/massac...

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
Wrong Link
http://www.nbcconnecticut.com/...

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
CT-SEN
Why was she even invited?

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
Cantor donated to CPA Super PAC against Manzullo
Black Legislative Caucus push Martin resolution
http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

To summarize, its basically the "Zimmerman is a racist" opinion, along with comments against the "Stand your ground" laws

22, Libertarian Republican CA-14
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"

State law
I believe this is a state law. So how will they repeal a "Stand Your Ground" law that they didn't pass?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
Yep state law
And they need to be expanded and passed in more states if anything.

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
Simple
Pass a federal law forbidding precisely what the stand-your-ground laws does and trip the supremacy clause.

Though I don't think congressional democrats would be that stupid.

22, Libertarian Republican CA-14
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"

[ Parent ]
Wouldn't be that stupid
Most of these Stand Your Ground bills pass with bipartisan support.  The versions passed in Pennsylvania and Michigan received near unanimous Republican support and a large percentage of Democratic support.  I know some Democrats seem excited about getting 1/3 of the white vote so this might be a good way to do it.

I also doubt any law passed banning stand your ground bills would meet constitutional muster.  SCOTUS already struck down a federal gun law (Gun Free Schools Act) and if they strike down Obamacare, this would arguably be an even easier strikedown.

27, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Political Roundup For April 6, 2012 | 90 comments
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Elections have consequences -- from the race for President to the race for one seat on a city council. The political economist Max Weber wrote that the state possesses a monopoly on the legitimate use of force. But in the United States, the state is divided into myriad federal, state, and local entities. And the elections to fill those entities are the products of the fascinating interactions between campaigns, party affiliations, voter turnout, and the media spotlight. Red Racing Horses analyzes those elections -- from a Republican-leaning perspective -- to keep a close eye on the process of electing officials, and to offer our perspective on the election-related issues of the day. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog.

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