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Evening Political Roundup For April 5, 2012

by: SCRep

Thu Apr 05, 2012 at 17:30:00 PM EDT


Indiana: A new Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground poll finds Sen. Richard Lugar leading primary challenger Richard Mourdock, 42% to 35%, with another 23% undecided. The two are evenly splitting the vote among the 72% of primary voters identifying with the Republican Party.

AZ-8: Former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords aide Ron Barber raised $550,000 in the first seven weeks of his campaign in the special election to replace Giffords. Barber is unopposed in the Democratic primary, but four Republicans are running in the GOP primary, including Jesse Kelly, who came within 2 points of unseating Giffords in 2010.

MA-6: Republican Richard Tisei raised $350,000 in the first quarter in his race against Rep. John Tierney. Tisei, a former state Senator and GOP nominee for lieutenant governor, had $454,000 in cash on hand at the end of last month. In the fourth quarter of 2011, Tisei outraised Tierney $312,000 to $161,000.

SCRep :: Evening Political Roundup For April 5, 2012
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IN is an open
primary state with indies or even D's being able to vote in GOP primary.

That makes the who is going to vote question a little harder


Rick "change the rules for me" Santorum
Rick Santorum has been lobbying the RNC to change the delegate allocation in Florida and Arizona from winner-take-all to proportional. He's advancing the idea that all states before April 1 had to be proportional. They didn't have to be, of course. They just weren't supposed to be winner-take-all. Mitt Romney did take all the delegates in Puerto Rico, Guam, American Samoa, Massachusetts, and Idaho.

Now Santorum wants the rules for Texas to be changed the other way. He's seen as the likely winner of a Texas primary and this would benefit him.

http://www.statesman.com/blogs...

Changing the rules now would be unusual and changing them to benefit one candidate would be unethical. I'm not sure Santorum would win a Texas primary at this point. There are indications that Romney has chipped into Santorum's support with evangelicals and "very conservative" voters. And Texas has a lot of urban/suburban Republicans in the Dallas and Houston metros. I don't know what the ratio of urban/suburban to rural voters is in Texas, but these cities aren't Birmingham or Oklahoma City.

And Mitt would likely be able to plow money in that Santorum could not.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


@Thefix Tweet: RNC immediately shuts idea down
The Fix ‏ @TheFix
"A change at this point would require a waiver. There is no basis for a waiver. Texas will remain a proportional state." -- @seanspicer.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Winner Take All
Santorum should probably be happy that they shut that down. Romney's support would be heavily concentrated in metro area districts in the state. I could actually see a change to winner take all seriously backfiring on Santorum.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
Do we know Tierney's CoH?


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

$454k


Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Thought that was Tisei's
nt

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Oh whoops
I thought he was asking about Tisei's and just missed it in the article. My bad.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Tierney hasn't announced
Says in article.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Ah
Thanks!

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Remember to count Tierney's Costa Rican bank account
Wouldn't want to miss that

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Romney/Allegheny County
Ryan, do you think Romney can win Allegheny? Aren't most of the registered R's in the northern part, which seems to be more biz friendly than union friendly, like south Allegheny?  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


Yep
The primary electorate there is primary more affluent than the county as a whole and more country club Republican for lack of a better term.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
This is absurd...
The comparison is one of situations.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
It Amazes Me How Bad Conservative/GOP Messaging Has Been on This Issue
The issue isn't whether women should have "access" to birth control (which is how the Dems & the Media are spinning it, of course) - the issue is whether we should all be paying for other women's birth control!

I have no problem with the former.

I have big, big, BIG problems with the latter.

Wanna know why medical insurance is so expensive?! - Because it's being mandated that medical insurance cover everything, including garbage like this. Why shouldn't individuals pay for stuff like this out of pocket?!

How hard is it for the GOP to get this message out?!
Sheesh...  


[ Parent ]
The media
is driving this, what the GOP says gets lost or twisted by the media. It's not an issue, just like trayvon martin.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
From what the media says
You'd think 100% of women were supporting the Democrats

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
covering birth control pills
There have been studies to show that covering birth control pills in an insurance plan is less expensive than not covering birth control pills.  Fewer pregnancies.

[ Parent ]
TN-Sen
Actress/anti-nuclear activist Park Overall (D) running against Corker. http://www.greenevillesun.com/...

This leave Barasso as the only candidate not facing opposite-party opposition.  

R - MD-7


Lolling right now...
East Tennessee Democrat (she's from Greeneville) running statewide, probably as a liberal. I'm going to love this race...

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
It Gets Better
She is related to Obama (yes, seriously).

One of Obama's 32 great-great-great-grandparents was Susan Catherine Overall (1849-1906)

Age 43. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.


[ Parent ]
Even better
Though of course, the Bushes are related to Obama as well. The only reason that I'm probably not related to Obama myself, since parts of my family have been in this country since the 1600s, is that as far as I know, I don't have a single Yankee in my background. All my ancestors settled in the South, and all of their children and their children's children and so on were born and raised in the South as well. Those families that Obama, the Bushes, and other powerful people trace their lineage back to, and through which they are all related, are from the Northeast. Their are other people that trace their ancestry back to similar Southern families, but the groups usually don't mix.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
mine went all over the place
VA in 1600s: (four younger brothers).

Mine did a 3 way split between 1810 & 1830 : northern branch to NJ, southern branch to SC, mine stayed in Virginia.

Mine then moved to Poplar Bluff, MO C. 1855. The story is the whole town is related to us.

Mine then split off again, C. 1895 initially going to Texas, finding a wife there but quickly moving after that to Oklahoma City.

There's a decent shot of a relation to Bush.

And Mom's - Mom's - Mom's family is from IL, at the time it was well south of Chicago, but the city may have been starting to encroach into that area before the housing market froze.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
CA-24
Maldonado owes $470K in back taxes. http://www.sanluisobispo.com/2...

R - MD-7

Not according to the article
The link says the amount of debt is being litigated in US Tax Court.

Age 43. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.

[ Parent ]
He doesn't owe anything
His family company may owe the money. Maldonado is smart to get out, as he doesn't need that weighing over his head. Although that didn't work for Alexi Giannoulias. I have this race as Likely Democratic, but I really don't see the GOP having much of a shot here. I imagine after the primary I'll move it to Safe Democratic.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
TN-6
Zelenik seeks rematch against Black. http://www.dnj.com/article/201...

Good luck with that after Black's monster fundraising hauls in the past two years.

R - MD-7


Longshot in my opinion
as Black not only has fundraising lead but she has been popular in her district. I do not see it happening.  

[ Parent ]
Zelenik
Is from Rutherford, which is now in the 4th, so good luck with that.

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
She moved into the district
I have the article in the roundup tomorrow.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Still
She was chair of the Rutherford GOP. She has no ties to the current district.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Condolences to OGGoldy
The score doesn't do any justice to the quality of the game the Gophers played.  

Baker '14
R, MA-3


Oh, phew...
From your title, I thought that Gokdy had lost a family member. I was legitimately worried.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Don't Worry!
Didn't think about what it would look like on the right!

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
BC really played a hell of a game
They completely shut out some of the Goph's top players.  Jake Hanson (a personal friend and probably the best player I ever played against in HS) and Warning had a few chances in the first but the BC goalie, Milner I think, made some unbelievable saves.  And I can't even recall Rau's name getting mentioned once.  It takes a seriously good defense to shut out Rau; he's one of the best players to come through our state in a long time.  Bjugstad and Parenteau were non-factors.  Patterson seemed off, too and let in some goals he shouldn't have.  He appeared to be caught cold on some BC fast breaks after the Gophers controlled the puck for a long period of time.

It definitely wasn't a 6-1 game but BC deserved to win.  They took the Gophers off their game plan and capitalized on every opportunity they got.

Saint Paul (MN-4)  


[ Parent ]
The better team won
And I was at Joe Senser's drowning my sorrows away anyways. A few beers took off the edge.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Another TN Democratic state legislator retires
http://www.chattanoogan.com/20...

State Rep. Gary Mmore, Sr. (D-Nashville) is retiring from a seat that the new map moves from R+2 to R+10. Moore is also the current head of the Tennessee AFL-CIO. Running to replace him on the Democratic side is Nashville Metro Councilman Bo Mitchell (D). The only Republican running at the moment is some real estate guy.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)


Eh- Should'nt the Republican be favored
as an open seat. I detect that Mitchell is the favorite?

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Mitchell is definitely not the favorite.
Being a Metro Councilman helps him, but the seat is R+10 in a major county. That R+10 is pretty close to a 'real' R+10 because of it's location. I originally found out about this retirement from the FB account of a guy who works state and local campaigns for n Dems (he's also an occasional RRH lurker). The post touted Mitchell, which is how I knew about him, since his candidacy isn't mentioned in the article.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
But it is confirmed that Mitchell is in fact running.


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
great map of HD50
on a recent diary.

Nice to see Moore pack it in.


[ Parent ]
awesome


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
With all the
unfounded and untrue stories run against her I don't put stock in any of them anymore.

26, Republican, WA-03 (represented by wonderful Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler).

[ Parent ]
Yeah
I believed the first few when they came out, but we're moving into 'The Boy Who Cried Wolf' territory now.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Charleston 8th Myrtle Beach 9th
Fastest growing metro areas last year.
http://www.postandcourier.com/...

SC1-Charleston

Yeah, I Don't Wanna Go "East Coast"...
...But if I ever did, my #1 choice would be South Carolina. (#2 choice is inland Virginia, but that's only if VA doesn't become a bona fide "Blue State" - if it does, forget it!!)

Anyway, SC is the only real draw for me as a West Coaster...  


[ Parent ]
Good Choice
Charleston is one of the top destinations in the US hands down. #1 in top travel mags as well. The awards keep on mounting. Come visit.  

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
I was there last week
The downtown area is really nice.

[ Parent ]
For Real
Should have let me known.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
They're after Haley again
Politics appears to be a blood sport in South Carolina.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
She reminds me of Sarah Palin
Maybe resign the governorship early and go to Fox News. She's always either half in or half out.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
That last sentence
has a dangerous amount of lewd comic potential.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
I'd be looking for an exit strategy if I were her
There comes a point where even the thickest-skinned pol can't take being bombarded from all sides anymore. If I were NH and Romney won I'd take any admin job he were willing to give me just to get out of Columbia.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
PA-Gov 2018
LOL imagine Trivedi v Feinberg. . . I can only imagine how awful that race would be and how pissed off PA voters would be.

Oh God
I think the Tank will be going after both camps.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Kathy Nickolaus will not run elections anymore
She is being greatly ridiculed in the press, and has been called to resign by the Milwaukee-Journal Sentinel.

She is handing off the elections stuff to her deputy clerk.

http://www.jsonline.com/news/w...

http://www.jsonline.com/news/o...


Kerry Healey Elected to RNC
Kerry Healey has been elected as a Republican National Committeewoman from MA:

http://www.redmassgroup.com/di...

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


The last line is what gets me
"For the first time in recent memory a full 100% attendance of the committee were present."

There's only 80 members of the committee.


[ Parent ]
IN-DePauw University/Howey Politics: Obama down 9 in first Indiana poll
http://howeypolitics.com/main....

If Mitt Romney is the Republican nominee, he would lead the president by nine points (49%-40%) among Hoosier voters.

27, R, PA-07.


The 39% approval seems a bit low
But I am not in touch with Indiana politics at the ground level, so it could be plausible.

I said months ago that Obama should not be putting money into Indiana. There is absolutely NO path for Obama tom 270 that winds through Indianapolis. Obama simply does not need the state, just as he didn't need it in 08.

If Murdoch wins the primary however, I think the DSCC should pump good money into this race, as Murdoch is infinitely weaker than Lugar. (and yesterday's poll shows that)

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


[ Parent ]
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