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Morning Political Roundup for April 9, 2012

by: James_Nola

Mon Apr 09, 2012 at 08:00:00 AM EDT


Happy Easter Monday. Hope everyone had a blessed holiday weekend

President

Romney: The Romney campaign is moving in for the kill in PA: The campaign is investing $2.9 million between today and the primary (Apr 24). See the link for full breakdown of the ads by market. The campaign is investing in the Erie, Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, Johnstown, Philadelphia, and Harrisburg/Lancaster/Lebanon/York media markets. They are ignoring Santorum's home base of Allegheny.

More Romney: NYT details Mitt Romney's long relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. It began back in the 1970's, when both worked at the Boston Consulting Group. The two have remained close and worked together when Romney was MA Gov. Netanyahu and Romney still speak frequently about Middle East policy. One thing is for certain: Under a Romney administration, our relationship with Israel would certainly be better than it is today.

Santorum: Prayers to the Santorum family and their 3 year old daughter, Bella, who was hospitalized over the weekend. Rick has canceled all campaign events today.

Paul: While Ron Paul will not be the GOP Presidential nominee this year, his two campaigns and his organization have helped give the Paul camp a solid base in the party, with like minded people gaining influence in local parties.

Gingrich: Newt Gingrich is blaming his staff for his debt, saying they spent too much trying to win FL. He also says he has self-funded part of his campaign. You know, with all the money he made as a "historian" for Frannie-Freddie.

More Santorum: The Santorum campaign is continuing to give Santorum more wiggle room for a pre-PA withdrawal. Now, instead of saying its not over until someone gets 1,144, campaign manager John Brabender is saying that the campaign will "respect" if it becomes clear another candidate will reach 1,144. He also says Santorum had $1.2 million on hand at the end of March.

Even More Santorum: Rick Perry's spokesman confirms that Perry and Santorum recently met in Texas, calling it a "courtesy visit".

Romney Victory: The RNC and Romney campaign made their joint-fundraising committee, Romney Victory, Inc., official with the FEC. Donors can donate up to $75,000. The first $2,500 goes to Romney's primary account, the next $2,500 to his general account, the next $30,800 to the RNC, and the rest is divided between the Idaho, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, and Vermont Republican parties. Anyone know why these, rather than swing states, were chosen? Seems like odd choices.

Crossroads: The king of the Super PAC's plans to begin its first real assault on President Obama in swing states soon. They plan to focus heavily on attacking Obama between May and July, a period they believe is crucial in forming voters opinions, pre-convention.

Senate

Utah: A poll of delegates to the convention taken by a pro-Orrin Hatch Super PAC finds Hatch below the 60% necessary to avoid a convention. Hatch takes 50% to former state Sen. Dan Liljenquist's 19%.

Nebraska: Americans for Prosperity is continuing its campaign to kill Bob Kerrey's campaign in the cradle. It is up with another spot attacking Kerrey for his liberal positions, and for trying to bring his liberal ideas from NYC to Nebraska.

Maine: A poll by the Maine People's Resource Center shows King Angus (I) leading SoS Charlie Summers (R) and former SoS Matt Dunlap (D) 56-22-12. In the primaries, Summers leads Treasurer Bruce Poliquin 28-12, with former Senate President Rick Bennett at 7 percent, assistant Senate Majority Leader Debra Plowman at 6% and Scott D'Amboise and Attorney General William Schneider at 4%. On the Democratic side, Sen. Cynthia Dill leads Dunlap 20-17 and Rep. Jon Hinck at 6%.

House

IL-16: We thought we had heard the last of this one. But, we have not. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, who alreaady ruffled feathers when he endorsed Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R) over Rep. Don Manzullo (R), is drawing ire from members of the caucus for donating $25k to the Campaign for Primary Accountability, which ran anti-Manzullo ads, but has also ran ads against other Republican incumbents, including Rep. Jean Schmidt, who lost her primary.

IL-13: After Rep. Tim Johnson's surprise retirement, his former chief of staff and Randy Hultgren's current CoS Jerry Clarke will announce a run for the seat today. Former John Shimkus aide Rodney Davis is leaning towards a bid.

States

Oregon: I guess we can rule out Chris Dudley for a 2014 Gubernatorial run: the former Portland trailblazer is moving to California for his wife's career.  

James_Nola :: Morning Political Roundup for April 9, 2012
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I am not sure Santorum or Gingrich
will last the week.  Of course with no primaries until the 24th there is no obvious need to withdraw but the end is so clear now.  It is painful to lose but its time to pull out.  

In the case of Newt and likely Santorum IMO a GE win for either would have been a real longshot. I saw Lamar Alexander in pain in 1996, before he withdrew, because both he and the Clinton thought he had a chance to win that year.  A couple thousand votes in NH and Lamar could have been Prez.  It is time to rally around the party.  


St Charles caucus (take two) tomorrow April 10th
Also various district & state conventions among the caucus states both this Saturday and next Saturday.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
NE-Sen:
Americans for Prosperity isn't letting up even a little in their brutal ad war on Kerrey, they have yet another new ad out today:

http://bcove.me/gdjal95t

Kind of.... creepy, to be honest. It gets the point across I suppose.

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


IL-10
Headline: 'Lines out both doors' for job seekers at local job fair
Standing outside a packed community job and resource fair at the Waukegan Ramada Inn on Monday, state Rep. Rita Mayfield, D-Waukegan, was asked if the event gave her any feel for the state of her district's economy.

On one hand, said Mayfield, there were "lines out both doors" of the Ramada banquet hall before the fair opened at 10 a.m. But she added that, in speaking to attendees, not everyone coming in was out of work.
...
U.S. Rep. Robert Dold, R-Kenilworth, co-host of the four-hour session, said he feels that the county and state "have a long way to go" in recovering jobs lost to the recession, and events like Monday's are "something I'm confident we'll be doing again in the future, it's just a question of when."

This is exactly the type of bi-partisan event that Bob needs to keep on holding. It definitely casts him in a positive light. He and Mayfield seem to get along quite well.
http://lakeforest.suntimes.com...


Et tu Vicky?
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-...

If you actually believe there's something fishy about the President's birth certificate, you don't say anything because you come off sounding like a loon and making the Republican party the crazy conspiracy party. There should be a rule. If you question the President's birth certificate you can't run for re-election.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Very dissapointing
She seemed really sharp, but now I can no longer support her.

25, M, VA-11, moderate R

[ Parent ]
Romney stories
It's an interesting coincidence you put the two Romney stories back-to-back. Bibi is from Philly. If he campaigned for Romney there, he'd turn out a lot of Republicans. Of course he can't.

It's a stark contrast for Netanyahu. On the one hand there's the guy telling foreign leaders, "I have to deal with the guy every day." On the other is the guy you've been friends with for 35 years. And yet he has to stay neutral.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Is there a law against Foreign Surrogates?
Why can't Bibi campaign? Can he at least make robocalls?

20-Cubano, R, CA-38
City Commissioner, College Republican Club President


[ Parent ]
It's just a huge no-no. And it would be stupid for him to do it.


[ Parent ]
If only...
Yeah I guess it would cause a huge strife if Obama won reelection. Life just isn't fair sometimes.

20-Cubano, R, CA-38
City Commissioner, College Republican Club President


[ Parent ]
Bibi and Barack
Bibi not only would have a more difficult relationship with the President, but a lot of American Jews would be very upset. Romney should win the Jewish vote in the Philadelphia metro, but I doubt he'll do very well elsewhere.

Netanyahu is too conservative for many American Jews. He doesn't need to antagonize them.

And then there's the foreign issue. Americans are very sensitive to foreigners involved in our electoral process. Of course Netanyahu's mother was American and he had U.S. citizenship until he gave it up. Hmmm... Bibi for President.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
SEPA Jews
Romney should win the Jewish vote in the Philadelphia metro.
If so, how does that affect Lower Merion and Haverford Townships' vote totals? I'm just curious because one of the two will be my new home for the next few years. Also, how about Rador Township's vote totals? It seems fairly Jewish as well.

[ Parent ]
Closer than 2008
But Obama will take both townships. Unfortunately, the Jewish vote is nearly as Republican as it used to be. The Jewish vote will likely be close in the Philly metro, but it will probably run 25 points more Romney than Manhattan.

The voters have changed somewhat, but you're moving into an area that used to be dominated by the Republican party. The county parties have been very strong for many years. Well, the Montgomery county party is having issues now, but there'll be strong pushes for Gerlach and Meehan, as well as Romney, and the senatorial nominee.

What's fascinating about the area is that you'll find more swing districts in a 50 mile radius than anywhere else in the country. You're in one of the swingiest states and in the most swingy area of the state. This is a major battleground.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Updates on redistricting
http://www.rollcall.com/issues...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Kansas
Someone needs to step up over there. There is no reason why even one seat should be competitive, especially Jenkins' seat, which could be open next cycle if she runs for the senate.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
You'd think Brownback would have taken the lead by now
He's served in the House, he's a governor with a broad base of support, and he's a conservative who's never been afraid to speak his mind. I'm shocked he's been so passive, since this is becoming embarrassing for his state.

[ Parent ]
Brownback Has Made Clear What He Wants...
...With both the Congressional and the State Senate map.

But if the liberal Republicans in the KS State Senate would rather act like de facto Democrats, there's not much he can do about it.  


[ Parent ]
only additional thing I can think of
Is have all four incumbent congressman from Kansas sign off on the same map.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Checking in from Montreal
Here for the first part of Passover.
Won't be on here for another few days.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

Have fun.
Enjoy the holiday with your family.

[ Parent ]
MI- Obama up 4% over Romney (EPIC-MRA)
Obama has a 50% Favorable Rating, and a 55% Disapproval Rating in Michigan.

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

Is Michigan in play?

Baker '14
R, MA-3


Early
General election polls at this point are worthless. McCain was leading at some point. Spence Abraham was up 20 points on Stabenow in the past and lost. Dick DeVos lead. Jim Blanchard was up 20pts on some unknown guy named John Engler.

I think Michigan will be in play as it normally is unless you have a 1996 year or a QUITTER like McCain at the top of the ticket. If you have a candidate who quits the state and has a dumbass stafffer announce it to the world, then the state won't be close to being in play.

I don't like Romney at all, but I don't think he, nor Santorum, would quit here.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
No.
Sorry, but EPIC-MRA has a pretty severe Republican bias, in december they had Romney up by five. Even with this poll factored in Obama leads Romney by more than 11 in the RCP average and when PPP and Marist polled here in late march they each found Obama up by more than 15 points, so while I won't comment on whether MI might be in play later on I think it's safe to say it's not now.

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
EPIC/MRA is run by democrats
EPIC/MRA was Ed Sarpolis' company. He's a bigwig at MEA, last I've heard.

Steve Mitchell's poll leans right.

Those are the two major polling firms with in state polling here in general elections.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
???
I fail to see how that's relevant. I didn't say they were owned by Republicans, I said that their polls have Romney doing much better than anyone else, which is true.

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
Poll
The poll sample includes a few too many Republicans.  The 2004 breakdown was 39% D, 34% R, 27% I.  This poll is 38% D, 37% R, and 21% I.

I think Michigan will be more solidly for Obama than some expect.  If you had asked me a few months ago, I would've said it would be close like 2000/2004.  Now, I think MI will go something like 54% vs 45% for Obama.  

Still not a fan of EPIC's way of measuring job approval, particularly the use of "fair."    


[ Parent ]
You can't compare
Because they ask the partisan identity in a unique way. Not straight R or D question.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Why?
They do ask a secondary question about whether one is a strong Dem/Rep or lean Dem/Rep.  I, however, don't see why that's a problem.  

[ Parent ]
You're right
It's 25-23 D on the first straight up question.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Not a whisper
from you guys about the dozens of PPP polls with too many democrats.  

Hey its all random right?  The one poll with inspired GOP voters has to be trash??

I have said this before that if PPP or Epic or whoever are truely polling registered voters you should see some variations in results.

If you randomly poll 100 times and your basis is registered voters 33% of the time sample should be D oriented, 33% of the time in the middle and 33% of the time with an R tinge.

That's why when PPP is left of center 100% it means they polling that way on purpose.

One honest poll with an R tinge and its in the trash pile.

100 polls from PPP are,however, spot on accurate when they show a leftish tinge.  


[ Parent ]
Really?
I point out what I see to be a flaw in the poll and your only response is to go on a PPP rant?  Feel free to look through my comments on here.  You won't find any comments from me professing my undying love for PPP.  PPP has had some good polls and some polls that were wrong.  You won't find any polling firm that's perfect.  

Again, I don't understand what this has to do with my comment or the current poll in question.  


[ Parent ]
Not a hit at you in particular
but why no comments from you and others on PPP's D slant.  Why only comment on R slanted polls.  Or rather polls that you think on R slanted.

I might add that rants are in the beholder and I do not think my post falls in rant category. I could have easily said to you why rant on this one poll?  

Here's my defense of this Michigan poll.

1st it a registered voter poll.  Michigan does not register by party so how you know its wrong? What's the registered voter numbers by party in Michigan right now?

2nd so since there is no answer to my 1st question why did you rant?  Because of some sort of exit numbers you have a preconceived outlook on what Michigan 2012 should look like.  That is what is called bias.  That is your preception.  Read carefully now.  You are more then welcome to have your view of 2012 outlook as am I.  I happen to disagree with your outlook.

3rd what's the answer?  This poll randomly polled 900 registered voters in Michigan and asked who they would vote for today.  Has anyone else polled 900 random registered voters in Michigan this week?  So in your opinion you think its too republican a poll but that's your opinion and you are welcome to it.  Yet until you show another random poll of voters in Michigan willing to answer how do we know this poll is wrong?



[ Parent ]
Poll firms
If there's a PPP in future that is too D, then I'll say it.  I'm well aware of your issues with PPP. You don't like PPP and nothing anyone says will change that.  Some people hate Rasmussen and nothing anyone says will change that.  I choose not to the jump into the polling firm debates on purpose because it won't be productive.  

My "preconceived outlook on what Michigan 2012 should look like" is based on the general view that it will be a closer election, like 2004.  That's why I used the 2004 exit poll breakdown.  I actually don't think it will be close like 2004 but I was being cautious by assuming it will be.

"Read carefully now."

My reading comprehension skills are just fine.

I understand it is just my view.  It seems to be you who has an issue with someone having a different opinion.  I stated my view that I thought the sample was too Republican.  It was you who didn't find this acceptable and went on some PPP rant that had nothing to do with me, my comment, or this poll.  


[ Parent ]
I do not mean to insult
but often times folks here will comment on what they think I said as opposed to what I actually said.  

Let me clearly say that you could be right about what occurs in Michigan this fall as far R/D breakdowns.  I guess we will see.

What clearly is right, however, IMO that a random poll of Michigan registered voters could clearly be 38D-37R as of right now.  Could that be a bit of an R lean?  Maybe? When you randomly poll for registered voters 1/3 of the time it will lean a bit R.  That's polling.  I just find a bit unusual that you and Sestuna both were quick to say it leans R.  Maybe if it was just your comment I would have let it go but it seem like I was observing a pile on of liberal posters jumping on a R leaning poll.  I picked on your comment but could have easily have done the one above it.

As noted 1/3 of random polls should be lean R while 1/3 lean D. I guess I will wait until we see a PPP poll for Michigan and if leans D maybe you will point that out?

Let me say, in response to the remark below, kudos to PPP for their crosstabs.  We can see their bias at least.  Have they polled Michigan in the last month or two? What crosstabs on R-D numbers did they have?  


[ Parent ]
I just remarked
I'd noticed that all of the polls they'd been doing seemed to have Romney doing much better than the other pollsters, that's consistent, not just to do with this one poll, then I checked with RCP and they certainly stuck out as giving, ah... different results. That's generally the sort of thing worth mentioning. If PPP did a poll that was out of step with other polling (and somehow I was the first to comment on it) I surely would comment on it.

And yes, PPP polling at the end of February, Obama led Romney 54-38 and his job approval was 52% with 40D-30R-30I. Marist also did a poll around that time that had him up even bigger, as I remarked.

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
Crucial difference--
PPP releases full crosstabs for their polls. EPIC doesn't. When you're unhappy with PPP polls, you can (and should) just play pollster yourself and readjust them. EPIC (and most pollsters) don't allow that.


[ Parent ]
The latest
In a series of polls that has Snyder popular once again.
More popular than Obama and Stabenow too.

Recall!!!¡!! 111

25, Male, R, NY-10


[ Parent ]
Huh?
How is Snyder more popular than Obama?  Obama has a 50% favorable rating and Snyder has 48%.

[ Parent ]
Now
When nobody sees, you can also write about the unfav numbers.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
yep
The Democrats are stuck on the 'hurrr GOP governors are SOOOO unpopular' meme. Yet most of them really aren't, especially compared their Democratic predecessors.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
case in point
Here are 2 polls showing even Rick Scott in the mid 40s.

http://www.miamiherald.com/201...

http://saintpetersblog.com/201...

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
Can't be!11111
(Kicking and screaming) He's the most unpopular governor ever!!!¡¡11

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
They were unpopular
Just because the Republican governors you speak of don't have really low approval ratings now doesn't mean they never did.  Snyder had approval ratings that were as bad as Granholm's.  He is, however, fortunate to be in office when the economy is showing some signs of recovery.  If Snyder was governor under economy conditions like 2008-2009, he would still see his approval in the 30s too.    

[ Parent ]
Well, I already acknowledged that
Hence the reference to 'stuck on'. But it was of course quite funny when the Kos crowd immediately wrote off Christie, Corbett, Scott, Walker, Snyder, Kasich, etc in 2014 when they were all 6 months into their terms.

The same logic apparently doesn't doom Pat Quinn and Dan Malloy 6 months into their terms. At least be consistent.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
Michigan should be in play
If you start with the assumption that it's a 50-50 election, then Romney could win Michigan. He's polled better there than in a number of other states where it was closer in 2008.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
In '08, Obama won Michigan independents by 10 points
Here, Romney leads by 2 among them. I suspect he only wins Michigan in an '88-style rout, but, if he's winning the EV count rather narrowly (which, right now, I expect), this state's probably about a 5-pointer. I'd lump it in the same group as Maine, Minnesota, New Jersey and New Mexico.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Swing
http://www.270towin.com/2012_e...

Are there states on this map you could see Obama winning if he doesn't win Michigan? I could see him winning Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Colorado. If that's the case, it's close and Michigan could be the closest state that'd decide the election.

http://www.270towin.com/2012_e...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Disagree
I don't think MI will be that important in this election.  If Obama doesn't win MI, he has already lost.  I could see Obama winning Virginia but losing MI.  I don't see how Obama wins PA (or WI) but not MI.  

[ Parent ]
Romney Victory
I'm guessing that Priebus and Romney trust the state parties in Idaho, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, and Vermont to funnel the money back to Romney competently. I bet that there's limits on how much can go to each group, but that the state parties  can redirect it to the campaign and/or Super PACs.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

Warren 6.9 million in Q1
Wow. Wiw.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

Can I still buy
A MA TV station?  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
According to David Nir
her email blast announcing it says she has $4mil less in cash-on-hand still and brown has $15mil COH so she must have about $11mil COH. Really good haul, I wonder if she can top it again next quarter?

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
I don't know if she can top it, but I'm sure she'll try,
but I wouldn't be surprised if this is her average haul from here on out.                                

22, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Matt 6:25-34    

[ Parent ]
Tweets
Politics1.com ‏ @Politics1com
IL - CD-13: Ex-congressional chief of staff Jerry Clarke (R) launches run to replace his unexpectedly retiring ex-boss Cong Tim Johnson (R).

Politics1.com ‏ @Politics1com
FLORIDA - CD-26: Businesswoman Gloria Romero Roses (D) launches run vs embattled freshman Cong David Rivera (R).

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Links
Obey endorses Tom Barrett in Walker recall
http://www.politico.com/blogs/...
Sorry, progressives.

Warren does $6.9M
http://www.politico.com/blogs/...
They'll both have enough money

Romney asks stations to pull negative ad
http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

Opportunity Trumps Fairness with Swing Independents
http://thirdway.org/publicatio...
Nice to see this. I doubt Democrats will get it.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Census releases post 2010 growth estimates
http://www.census.gov/newsroom...

Six metro areas increased their populations by more than 100,000 people from 2010 to 2011: Dallas-Fort Worth (155,000), Houston (140,000), Washington, D.C. (122,000), New York (119,000), Los Angeles (116,000) and Miami-Fort Lauderdale (105,000).

Although new patterns of growth have emerged since the 2010 Census, some trends persist from the last decade. One such example is the growth in Texas. There were five large metro areas (2011 populations of at least 1 million) among the 20 fastest growing from 2010 to 2011. Four of them were in Texas: Austin (second), San Antonio (16th), Dallas-Fort Worth (17th) and Houston (18th). (Raleigh-Cary, N.C., was the fifth such area).

Basically things are staying the same. New Orleans is growing again and Louisiana could get that 7th seat back.

27, R, PA-07.


Census estimates
Should these trends hold up through the decade, Cali will lose one seat come 2020.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
A winning issue
http://www.tnr.com/article/pol...
Even the New Republic is giving Republicans props.

Teachers' unions are there for the same reason any other union is. The UAW wants to maximize pay and benefits and make sure their members don't get fired. Nothing wrong with people having an advocate in their corner.

The teachers' unions do the same. Yet teachers' unions are thought of very differently than the UAW. Everyone accepts this is what the UAW does. The corporation deals with it. People don't view that the state, and their stakeholders, are on the other side of that table. The stakeholders are parents and taxpayers.

Liberals are fine to side with the UAW against the corporation. They wouldn't be fine if they viewed they were siding with teachers' unions against... themselves.

Now I'm not talking about individual teachers and their dedication to their job. The union is there so the teacher can be there for your kid without worrying about money or their job.

Republicans have long looked at the teachers' unions as an adversary that doesn't share its goals. It sounds like some Democrats are waking up to this. Since the Teachers' union is one of the most important Democratic constituencies, it's difficult for them to side with the state against teachers. As more and more people realize the teachers' unions are an impediment to reform, Republicans will be advocating an increasingly popular position, one Democrats will struggle to counter.


R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


MN-SD-20
Special election tonight to fill the seat of the late Senator Kulby.  The DFL has a state rep (represents 50% of the district. Republicans have the 2010 candidate. It is a marginal district that is slipping from DFL to IP. Republicans still don't do well locally, as the ideology is wrong. The district was reshaped drastically in redistricting, but obviously the winner has a leg up come November

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

I had to get my MN state senate maps
back out.

Current SD20 seat gets chopped up four ways.  

Big stone county gets put into likely GOP seat SD12. Not sure there is an incumbent there but most of this seat leans R.

The three other counties north of the M. river currently put in SD20 ends up in SD17. I believe the current GOP incumbent in this seat is from Kandiyou county.  

The three counties south of the river end up in SD16 & SD22. Both of these seats have R incumbents who look pretty strong for re-election.  I think SD22 does?  I can't remember from your post but I have an orange mark on my map.  

So I suspect the GOP did not try to put up a strong candidate.  The seat has been chopped up and put into 4 seats where GOP candidates are set.

Do you know who the likely D winner is from?  That would be a hint as to which senate seat he will run in.  


[ Parent ]
Koenen
He is from Clara City, which is in Chippewa County (north of the river). Essentially, if Koenen wins (slightly better than even money, but it is about an R+2 seat), he will be paired up against gimse, who was probably the non-freshman Republican senator that got screwed hardest in redistricting. His home town of Wilmar (along with the rest of kandiyohi county) got ripped from the rest of his district and put in with the aforementioned river counties. koenen vs. gimse will be a top-tier race for sure.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
I'm phonebanking for this one tonight
Should be fun.

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04

[ Parent ]
1-507...
1-320...

I am actually 100% out of the loop on this one. I didn't recognize any of the names involved in either camp. I had never even heard if Koenen's campaign manager. And I am probably the most out of touch with this part of the state. I never spent much time in, or working on the old school Farmer (of the Farmer Labor party) areas. Koenen's the only Finn in the state legislature left, and that is about the extent of ky involvement with this race.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


[ Parent ]
State parties
I'm 99% sure Romney is using the state GOPs as conduits.  They will pass the money along either directly or indirectly.  

30, Left leaning indie, MA-7

I said the same thing a few posts upthread.


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
oops
Skimmed the comments before posting, but somehow missed it...  

30, Left leaning indie, MA-7

[ Parent ]
WI-Gov: Falk, La Follette, go on air
Although groups supporting Falk have been on the air for some time Falk is finally on the air with an ad of her own, a positive bio spot which also touts her ability to work with Republicans and balance the budget without raising taxes:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

La Follette says he'll be going on the air with two ads starting Thursday.

No word on the size of either buy.

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


PA-17: Cartwright up in internal
http://www.politicspa.com/cart...

Even when you weigh the typical bias of internals this is not great for the Warlord of Schulykill County.  For some reason I think Kanjorski is kicking himself somewhere.

28, Republican, PA-6


Shame we couldn't have gotten ourselves a B-lister here
If Holden loses the primary and there's backlash against Cartwright from Schuylkill in November, a Republican could win by replicating Barletta's 2008 numbers in Lackawanna. Ain't gonna be Laureen Cummings though.

[ Parent ]
This isn't your father's (2001) PA-17
This is a strong Obama district now, far stronger than Barlett's was. I don't see a Republican winning it.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
I assume the new PA17 is similar to the old Kanjorski district*
.

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

[ Parent ]
Nope
Both parties have a higher floor in this seat, but the Democratic floor is probably 48%.  It was drawn in such a fashion to suck up as many hard Democrats as possible, but it sucked up many hard Republicans as well.  This is one of the five districts Corbett and Toomey lost.  

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Agree
This district has a lot more hard partisans that vote straight ticket.  Both parties probably have higher floors in this district interestingly enough.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Bob Brady or DelCo War Board-style politics
Hmm... would it be possible to somehow convince her to drop her bid and insert someone more popular in her place after she wins the primary? I think a GOP State Representative/Senator from the non-Holdengrad part of the seat would be perfect. This assumes Tim "The Indestructible Blue Dog" Holden actually somehow loses. . .


[ Parent ]
Cartwright is a B-Lister
Holden was not challenged by several more prominent Democrats who would be cleaning his clock under these circumstances because everyone viewed him as untouchable.  Cartwright will be primaried in 2014 if he wins by the Luzerne-Lackawanna machines.

If Holden and Critz both lose, the unions and Democratic party establishment are going to look incompetent and weak at least outside of Philadelphia.  I expect this to lead to a 2014 feeding frenzy against the incumbents on the Democratic side.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
GOP Bench?
Assuming Cartwright wins and holds on in November, who could the GOP run against him? Even if the floor is higher for both parties here, I imagine that a strong Republican with a solid reputation could knock off a trial lawyer with a weak reputation, in this district, right?

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
None where it matters
We have strong benches in Schuylkill, Monroe, and Northampton, but nothing in the Luzerne and Lackawanna portions of the district.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Crossroads GPS or Individual campaigns
When making campaign donations, which do you think is better and more effective to donate to?

27, IL-7, Fiscal Conservative

ALWAYS individual campaigns
Hard money is worth more and can be used for more direct electioneering.

You also control which candidates receive support if you donate to individual campaigns.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
Crossroads has plenty of money
They've got plenty of rich people to donate. By giving to a specific congressional candidate, you control your money. We all know that we here have a better idea which races Republicans can win than anyone at Crossroads does.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
MI-3 - UAW endorses Pestka
UAW endorses Pestka

Bad news for Trevor Thomas.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


ID-02: Nicole LeFavour (D) raised $60K in two(2) weeks.
Link

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


I doubt she wins...
But I see why you picked her for your fantasy congress team shameless plug with fund-raising like that.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.

[ Parent ]
Yeah.
I also know someone who chatted with her campaign manager and told me some pretty impressive things about her on-the-ground organization.

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
ID-02?
Safe Safe Republican.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Solid Republican
The Democrats have a base here in Sun Valley, but that is easily overwhelmed by the rest of the district.  

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Of course it is.
It's a 63% McCain district, I'm just speaking of her prospects as a member of my fantasy draft team.

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
Miss Redistricting update
coming soon or so it appears--legislative maps only

http://www.cdispatch.com/news/...


Bring on the GOP Gerrymander!!
:D  

[ Parent ]
The Campaign for Primary Accountability and California
http://rothenbergpoliticalrepo...

Jessica Taylor gives a good analysis of this group and touches on California and top two.

Here's a list of targets:
http://www.campaign4primaryacc...

I don't think they understand top two.

Dan Lungren is running against a Democrat, a Libertarian, and an NPP. There is no chance he doesn't finish top two and with no other Republican the district goes to Democrats.
Karen Bass is running unopposed. By anybody. Good luck there.

Lucille Roybal-Allard and Maxine Waters are each one of two candidates in their races. So they too will advance.
Pete Stark could lose to Eric Swalwell and Joe Baca could lose to Gloria Negrete-McLeod but not before November.

Jim Costa, Anna Eshoo, Adam Schiff , Grace Napolitano (D), Henry Waxman (D) and John Campbell (R) face weak party competition. They will blow out their party challengers.

Gary Miller (R) and Brian Bilbray (R) are the only two who could lose in June. Bob Dutton has the deck stacked against him. So he could use the help. It remains to be seen if Bilbray is vulnerable, although with 10 candidates in the race it's conceivable he could be.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


If Calderon stayed in CA-38
I have to think he would've immediately gotten help from CPA and perhaps given a better chance for Robles/Campos (wishful thinking I know)

I'm also quite sure that after their "evaluation" Dutton will receive money and Lungren will not since Lungren doesn't have a "primary challenger"

I'm actually quite excited to see how much staying power CPA has in the next cycles.  

20-Cubano, R, CA-38
City Commissioner, College Republican Club President


[ Parent ]
The General
I can't see them pouring money into the Libertarian candidate in CA-7. Maybe they'll go for Karen Bass' opponent. "Unopposed" can be a strong challenger. snark

Yes, Calderon could've been a formidable challenger. I wouldn't want to discourage you from believing Robles/Campos could win. I've volunteered on sure losers before and you have to convince yourself that you're going to win. You'll work harder.

By the end, I honestly thought Huey was going to win.

CA-15 and CA-35 fascinate me because both have legit challengers. Neither race will be decided in the primary. If it's 70-30 the challenger isn't going to win in November. If it's 55-45, CPA might want to dump money in to the district in November.

I wrote the diary about Washington's top two. Republican v. Democrat easily translate primary-general. Two Democrats running in districts where winning the Republican vote could be decisive doesn't have much precedent.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
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