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Morning Roundup for April 17th, 2012

by: BostonPatriot

Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 08:00:00 AM EDT


POTUS

Polling: The first four national surveys since Santorum's exit came out yesterday, and it's a split decision. The Gallup and Rasmussen trackers have Romney up 2 and 3, respectively, while Ipsos has Obama up 4 and CNN has Obama up 9. Obama's approvals are about even, while Romney begins the GE with the lowest favorables of any challenger since 1984.

Obama: $53M in joint fundraising for the President and DNC in March, up from $45M in February. (That increase is more than can be explained away by the fact that March has two extra days.) The RNC raised a respectable $13M in March, and will now begin joint fundraising with Romney.

Romney: Speaking of which, Romney has set his joint fundraising goal at $800M, which means he will need $100M per month. The campaign will attempt to raise $500M from large donors and $300M from small donors (like you! Have you donated?), and is expecting $200M in SuperPAC support to match Obama's projected $1B. (Man, just typing about all that money makes me wish I went into finance.)

Santorum: In a postmortem conference call, Santorum declined to endorse Romney (or Gingrich or Paul, for that matter), but promised to "be active in the Presidential race." It sounds like Santorum intends to be a good soldier, and is perhaps negotiating with the Romney camp before endorsing.

Senate

Florida: State CFO Jeff Atwater (R) is considering a late entry into the Senate race, after presumptive nominee Connie Mack had an underwhelming quarter. Atwater, who is a bigger name than anyone in the current field, would need to raise a lot of money quickly, but would have a free shot at the seat, as he's not up for re-election until 2014.

Nebraska: Bob Kerrey is up with another ad (that's three so far, despite not facing a contested primary), this one focusing on his distinguished military service. Kerrey promises to "work with both parties" in the ad's closing line.  

Nevada: Another close quarter in this oft-overlooked race (of the two seats we could lose, this one is decidedly less media-friendly), with Shelley Berkley narrowly edging Dean Heller, $1.4M to $1.1M. Berkley has a very small CoH edge.

Ohio: The 2008 and 2016 nominees? John McCain and Chris Christie hit the campaign trail for Josh Mandel yesterday, a surprising amount of star power for this early in the race.

Wisconsin: The PPP poll for Daily Kos also had Senate numbers, which were similar to what we've seen so far: Tommy Thompson has a small lead on Tammy Baldwin (47-45), while Mark Neumann (45-46) and Jeff Fitzgerald (40-47) trail the Democrat. Surprisingly for PPP, there are no GOP primary numbers; perhaps Kos wasn't interested.

House

CT-05: NRI, the same GOP pollster that gave us AZ-08 numbers yesterday, is also out with a poll on behalf of Andrew Roraback that shows him up on "Generic D" 50-33. Perhaps more intriguingly, Genric R beats Generic D 41-39. There are plenty of reasons to treat this with a grain of salt (there is later an "informed ballot test" that gives Roraback an even larger lead), but NRI does release a pretty decent polling memo.

FL-06: St. Rep. Fred Costello is officially in, setting up a crowded primary of B-listers in this safe Republican seat that both John Mica and Sandy Adams passed over. Others in the race include 2010 candidate Craig Miller, Jacksonville Councilman Richard Clark, and former Navy attorney Ron DeSantis, who is looking to become the first Jacksonville JAG to serve in Congress (see what I did there?)

FL-18: Allen West had another huge quarter ($1.8M), while Patrick Murphy was only able to produce 20% of that.

MI-06: The name's Upton. Fred Upton, MI6. And he raised $982K in Q1, blowing away primary challenger Jack Hoogendyk ($77K), who got 43% by running to Upton's right in 2010. Upton has angered some conservatives during his tenure atop Energy and Commerce, but has over $2M in the bank thanks to strong support from energy PACs.

NY-24: Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle will once again have the Independence Party line in her rematch against Dan Maffei. The IP is very possibly the reason Buerkle is in Congress, as she received 6300 votes on their line and edged Maffei by 648 votes overall.

WA-??: As the Dennis-to-Washington hypothetical starts to look more and more like it's going to happen, the Democrats who actually live in Washington are starting to push back. State party chairman Dwight Pelz is "horrified" by the idea and has strongly urged Kucinich to consider his legacy. That the chairman of the Washington Democratic Party is publicly urging an incumbent Congressman from Cleveland not to run in his state reminds me why I love politics.

NRCC: $9.3M for the Sons of Sessions in March, a great monthly haul. We should hear from the DCCC some time this week.

SuperPACs: Sheldon Adelson, the billionaire businessman who was Newt's biggest backer this winter, is giving the House GOP a big leg up, in the form of a $5M donation to the Congressional Leadership Fund, and he's suggesting that may not be the last we see of him this year. The CLF is headed up by ex-Sen. Norm Coleman; any suggestions as to whom Norm should help out with his new-found cash?

States

Indiana: It's hard to tell how big of a favorite Mike Pence is over John Gregg in Indiana, which has the most restrictive polling laws in the country, but he's got a huge cash edge. Pence shattered the state fundraising record with a $1.8M quarter and has triple the CoH of Gregg.

North Carolina: There's been turbulence, to put it politely, at the NC Democratic Party, and embattled executive director Jay Parmley has resigned following sexual assault allegations and the standard cover-up scandal. The fur is continuing to fly, as many state Dems are now calling for party chairman David Park to step down as well.

BostonPatriot :: Morning Roundup for April 17th, 2012
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Upton
So he's a probably smart enough to realize that he has a race on his hands and told the lobbyists that he needs cash this time anf they ought to pay back the favors.

This race depends too on whether outside groups will spend. Upton should be on the air already.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


either that or people though they were sending the money to his niece!


[ Parent ]
Philly election overcounts
http://www.philly.com/philly/n...

I am sure some of this is simple mistakes, but I am sure some of it is bad behavior.

28, Republican, PA-6


Happy birthday, SOTS!


From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


Thanks!


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Seconded.
I saw the signiture change; Happy Birthday and good luck college searching.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.

[ Parent ]
Thirded


26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Fourthed


24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Jeb 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
PA-17
Basically you need someone from Luzerne or Lackawanna counties for us to have a chance here.

That's what Ryan said about PA-17. Are there any high profile Republicans serving in/from Luzerne County, or better yet Lackawanna County?

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


None
All the competitive parts of those counties were gutted from that district.  

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
I know, but. . .
Is there anyone who lives in PA-10 or PA-11 whom we could run in the 17th and would be a strong candidate?

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
Not going to go over well
I don't think you can get away with such antics in Pennsylvania.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
PA-17
Even if they live in Luzerne or Lackawanna Counties only a few miles away from the 17th's border?

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
Is Jermyn in the 17th?
What about ex-Jermyn mayor/County Commissioner Bruce Smallcombe?

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
The
district attorney's from both Lackawana and Luzerne are Republicans.  Not sure exactly where they live though.

Republican Medical Doc from New York, NY

[ Parent ]
Really?
I didn't think that Republicans ever won anything countywide in Lackawanna County.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Fundraising
I doubt Romney will raise $200M from small donors, but I have no doubt he can hit his $300M Large Donor Target as well as exceed the $200M Super PAC Target.

I also doubt Obama will get anywhere near $1B even including the Super PAC.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


Morning Thoughts
FL-18: Lean R? I think so.

FL-06: I have a gut feeling that DeSantis will win, and his fundraising is good, but I could easily be wrong.

MI-06: As much as the lightbulb thing annoys me, we need Upton to lock this seat down.

NY-24: Buerkle will likely lose, but this is heartening.

CLF: I'm thinking that Altschuler will definitely get some help.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)


John Barrow banks $1 million to defend House seat
Big edge over GOP... http://blogs.ajc.com/political...

CLF . . . are you reading this?
If so, also consider throwing some dough to Lungren, Bilbray, Heck, Wimmer/Love (UT-04), Koster, Paton, Tipton, Canseco, Biggert, Gibson, Hayworth, Altschuler, Doheny, Bass, Benishek, Walorski, Duffy, Cravaack and Barr.  

Also, how about McIntyre's eventual challenger in NC-07, the eventual GOP nominee in AZ-02, the eventual GOP nominee in IL-13 and Rothfus?  


[ Parent ]
PA-17: fresh of yesterday's endorsement
(of Cartwright) the League of Conservation Voters is going on the air with a hefty $230K buy against Holden, the ad hits him for supporting Bush's energy policy and opposing a wind energy initiative by Obama:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

Link

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


NY-27 news
Just when we thought Chris Collins would get the Conservative Party line, news is out that David Bellavia also has petitioned for that line.  So, to recap, Bellavia has a lot of endorsements, and Collins has the Independence line.

Representative on Congress: Rep. Turner, OH

Not sure what you are trying to say here?
Since he's not a member of the Conservative Party Bellavia can only petition to get the party's nomination if he gets a Wilson Pekula. Did the Conservatives give both Collins and Bellavia the Wilson Pekula? Is Bellavia petioning for a stalking horse registered member of the Conservative Party to run a primary against Collins? And how is Bellavia paying for all this? He's raised bubkes!

[ Parent ]
Wilson Pekula?
I plead ignorance here.  What I did was post here.  My thoughts: this is almost "News of the Weird" level.  I read well into March that Collins was all but secure with the Conservative line.  This is a wrinkle into that premise.  Might not dash it into pieces, but gives me a mental wrinkle.  

As for cash on hand, well, I have no idea how Bellavia is doing it except for dedicated volunteers.

What I really want to know is who the Conservatives will settle upon, or if they will have a primary.

Representative on Congress: Rep. Turner, OH


[ Parent ]
Yes
It's NY ballot weirdness.  Other on here probably know the legalities better than I do but it's a petition for you to get on another party's ballot.  Since NY allows fusion voting, Scott Vanderhoef(a Republican) running for Rockland Cty Exec can run on the Conservative, Independence, etc lines (of which he is not a member) if he gets a Wilson Pekula.  

That's my understanding.

36, Republican, NJ-11  


[ Parent ]
Yes
If you are not a member of a political party you can only run on their line if you get a waiver from the local leader of that party. This is known as a Wilson Pakula (sorry for my typo in the original post). So Bellavia and Collins who are both registered Republicans can only run as a Conservative if the Conservative Pary County Leader gives them the Wilson Pakula to run as a Conservative. It is quite rare for them to give the waiver to 2 candidates and have them fight it out in a primary. As for Bellavia's fundraising numbers my understanding was the guy only raised about $12,000.

[ Parent ]
Rep. Barrow raised $257K, $1M COH.
Way outpacing his Republican challengers, Rick Allen: $76K raised, $231K COH; Wright McLeod: $150K raised, $199K COH; St. Rep. Lee Anderson: $70K raised, $48K COH; and rich girl Maria Sheffield: $14K raised, and $100K of her own money loaned, n/a COH.

Link

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


Barrow
I still feel as if all of the money in the world won't save him in his seriously Republican new seat.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
Most Likely
But I love that hes going down fighting.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
I didn't realize the problems that Republicans were have
raising money here.

[ Parent ]
Yep
Barrow's toast. The money doesn't matter much here.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Barrow's chances
He won 56.59-43.42 in 2010, and the district moved 11 points to the right. If Barrow had been running under these lines in 2010, Ray McKinney (R) should have won 54.4-45.6 or better. Since it isn't 2010 anymore, the race could be close, but a better R candidate and some unfamiliar territory should take Barrow down. If he goes down fighting, it should be a 51-49 or 52-48 affair.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
What a great roundup
as I have been busy.  I come here and get all the worthwhile news.

Yes its the time of money.  1st qtr reports are leaking out.  Here's what my crystal ball tells me about US house fundraising.

1st I remain committed to my idea that house battlefield will shrink from 2010 to 2012. I have it mind today that about 80 house races will truely be competitive in 2012.

2nd what does that hold for fundraising? I think we will see tons of Party PAC and Super PAC funds flowing to those competitive races.  I think that's a bipartisan trend so I am sure it favors either party. Except that in 2010, because of the political trend, you did see the GOP fall short of being able to support longer shot candidates in numerous races. So I am sure that in December 2012 anyone will be writting "if only the GOP had funds for MN1 or Iowa1 or NM1 or whatever that race could have been won".

Here's Cook's current list of 99 competitive house races.

http://cookpolitical.com/chart...

I doubt CA16-NM1(unless Chavez loses)-OR5-TX34-WA6-WV3 become competitive.  (6) I have about 12 house seats like AR1, NC13, FL10, NE2, NJ5, MN2 among others that I do not believe will be "competitive". I guess competitive is a bit hard to define but while races will occur you might see +12% wins (over 56%). A 12% win is alot like winning a football game by 3 touchdowns.  Its a game but not really competitive.

This list of 99 seats, however, seems to be an accurate list of the house battleground. Even that is lower then the 125 or so hotly contested races of 2010.


IL-13
http://t.co/NYvxsjm3

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


PPP tweets
Obama's job approval above water at 51/45 in Florida, full poll results in "a couple hours"

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


I don't believe it
We all know none of their polls matter until they switch to LV screen. See Wisconsin as an example.  

[ Parent ]
so subtract one or two points from the dem
and add it to the republican if you want.

that's still 48/48

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Law and Order Liberal.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
PA-17
Republican Andy Jarbola, Lackawanna County DA, was born, raised, and educated in public primary and secondary high schools in Scranton. Even if he doesn't live in the 17th (I can't tell, he seems to have taken his name off of White Pages, ZabaSearch, etc.), I think he could be our ideal candidate against freshman Congressman Cartwright (if he ends up upending Tim Holden) in 2014. He was born and raised in the 17th and can easily say he represents it at the countywide level. Anyway, what does the RRH Pennsylvania Delegation think of a Jarbola candidacy?

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


Correction
Secondary schools, not secondary high schools. D'oh.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
DCCC raised $9.8M, $22.8M COH.
Link

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


Republicans gain registration in Bucks and Montgomery counties
http://www.phillyburbs.com/new...

Quite a remarkable shift in Bucks as I believe the Democrats were up by 20,000 in 2008 and the Republicans won among new registerants.  The Obama for America people are out in full force while the GOP seems to put little effort into registration.

28, Republican, PA-6


Holden is going to lose
I make the prediction now.

http://www.rollcall.com/issues...

http://www.timesleader.com/sto...

28, Republican, PA-6


Cartwright
Didn't realize he was from Munley Munley Cartwright.  Trial lawyer ads are all over TV in NEPA, none more so than MM&C.  Blech.  

[ Parent ]
FL-Pres: Obama up 5 on Romney, leads 50-45.
51-45 job approval, Romney's faves are still underwater but looking better at 41-51.

Link (WARNING: pdf)

Rick Scott still tragicomically unpopular at 34-54 job approval.

The sample voted 47-47 for McCain-Obama, racial breakdown is 71% white, 13% hispanic, 11 black, 5% other, and party breakdown is 41D-41R-18I.

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


Sketchy!
Florida is only 36.1% registered Republican and 40.5% registered Democrat, so if you adjust the figures accordingly Obama's lead should be 8.5% (51.5-43.1). I like that more, so let's run with that! /s

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Voting Republican with a Democratic edge
Florida tends to vote Republican on a state level, despite Democrats having a registration edge. I assume Florida is like Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana in the north, they are registered Democratic but vote Republican.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Yes, I know
But since the silly internals game is so popular I just want to play too.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Fun Game
But the poll does look good for Obama.

Does his lead grow a point or anything if he gets 95-5% of the black vote?

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
I tend to discount (put no stock in)
PPP's polls until they go to the likely voter model.  This poll's seems too liberal to me.  Of course PPP does not exactly follow the same format for ideology that the exit polls do so its hard to cipher that out.


[ Parent ]
Party ID in the poll sort of matches 2010
41-41-18 D-R-I in the poll
36-36-29 D-R-I in the 2010 exit poll
(in contrast, I think '08 had a 4 point D edge in that exit poll.)

So if the FL electorate is closer to '08 than '10, it might understate President Obama's current standing.

Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"


[ Parent ]
In FL
You would have expect the partisan ID vs. registration to be different.
They are Ds in registration in North FL, but R by identity. It explains everything.
In another state you would be right if it isn't a likely voters poll.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
I think
the media tried to use FL party registration data in the panhandle to "prove" that there were vote tabulation shenanigans in the vote totals for Bush in 2000 or 2004.

Like....how on earth can county x be 65% registered Dem and show that Bush won 75% of the vote.  

36, Republican, NJ-11  


[ Parent ]
Technically not like AL & MS
Technically, FL isn't like AL & MS since they don't have registration by party, but your general point is right on target.

[ Parent ]
Since you seem cocky like usual today,
Let's play the likely voter game too, and take 2 points from Obama and add 2 at the same time to Romny and we're back where we started.


23, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Hello Senator Tillis! -    

[ Parent ]
if Romney's tied in Florida
he's not winning the election, most likely.

It was R+2 or so in 2008.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Law and Order Liberal.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
So, looking at the Wisconsin polls...
and the difference between the RV screen and the LV screen (8-10 points) what we see here, after correction, is a Romney lead of 3-5 points? I'll take it! (No, I'm not actually saying that this is how we should look at the poll, I'm saying that we should take into account a democratic pollster trying to set a certain narrative until the very last moment, when an off poll would cause too much harm to its credibility).

[ Parent ]
I will
The jump is pretty drastic from registered to likely.  I would like to see PPP do a poll with all adults (for comical value), registered voters, and likely voters to see the gap.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
2012 Election
For my math friendly friends here...

If (And I know most here won't agree with these If's) Obama gets these portions of the non white vote, whats the lowest % of the white vote he can get in order to cross 50% (Two party vote if thats easier).

White Vote - 72% of Electorate XX/XX
Black Vote - 13% of Electorate 94/6 Obama
Hispanic Vote - 10% Of Electorate 65/35 Obama
Asian Vote - 2% of Electorate 62/38 Obama
Other - 3% Of Electorate 60/40 Obama

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


If your proportions are right
then Romney would need 60.78%.  

That seems like a somewhat daunting number and I can't really disagree with any of your other percentages.  It demonstrates how tough it is for the GOP.

36, Republican, NJ-11  


[ Parent ]
It's not that daunting
McCain won White voters 55%-43% in 2008 and Republicans won them 60%-37% in 2010. In 2008 that's around R+9.5%. In 2010 that's around R+8%. 61% should be within the range the GOP could do.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
I somewhat Agree
I think it is doable, but that it is on the very high end of what is possible for the GOP to reach.  If they hardly hit it in 2010 I think its unlikely they do it in 2012, but yes it is possible.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
National polls
http://dailykos.com/weeklypoll...

That's the last PPP/SEIU/Kos poll, so no one should expect it to be kind to Republicans. The numbers are a bit odd, however.

White 51R-42D
Black 80D-19R
Hispanic 53D-32R
Asian 52D-43R

CNN has
White 51R-44D
Non-white 71D-23R

They don't break down non-white but the percentages are likely something like

Black 84D-14R
Hispanic 53D-34R

Fox has
White 55R-35D
Non-white 70D-21R

that might be
Black 83D-13R
Hispanic 53D-31R

I expect President Obama to get 95% of the Black vote, so I don't know what to make of this. He also has 60-63% of the Hispanic vote, which seems low also.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Pew
http://www.people-press.org/20...

Pew, on the other hand, has Obama winning Black voters 95%-4%. Considering the margin of error, maybe there aren't any. They also have a healthy Hispanic 67%-27%. Romney's White numbers aren't all that great, but the sample seems to have a lot more Whites than it should. On the other hand, the party ID breakdown is 32%D/27%R/41%I. That's how Romney can win independents by 6 points and still be behind. If he wins independents 52%-46%, he wins the election.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Of course to lose Florida
in a PPP poll, Romney must lose indies +20%.

[ Parent ]
60/61 is very doable
we exceeded that 2 years ago and this President is very polarizing.

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!


[ Parent ]
was white turnout depressed in 2008
compared to blacks and others?
If so, whites may exceed 72% this year.

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!


[ Parent ]
Disagree
With this turnout model.

2008 was as follows:

White - 74%
Black - 13%
Hispanic - 9%
Asian - 2%
Other - 2%

IMO, this is a worse case scenario model for 2012.  I actually expect the white vote to make a small tick back up.  For all the talk about the growing Hispanic vote, they have been stuck at 9% for quite some time.  Sean Trende details this in his book.  My projections:

White - 75%
Black - 13% (might be lower, but I will leave it here with Obama on the ticket)
Hispanic - 9%
Asian - 2%
Other - 1%

And I think winning 60% of the white vote is very likely for Romney.  Remember, Bush won 58% in 2004 and McCain 55% in a horrid GOP year.  We took close to 61% in 2010.  

34, Republican, TN-8




[ Parent ]
Besides
the national totals don't matter. State by state matters. I think it will be far easier for the GOP going forward to win the electoral college than to win the popular vote.  

[ Parent ]
Gallup - Romney +5
Good for you guys, certainly not good for my heart lol.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Didn't they overstate
the size of the Republican House victory in 2010?  Their polls have seemed a little too friendly to my side.

36, Republican, NJ-11  

[ Parent ]
Their presidential polls in 2008 weren't that favorable for Republicans
They had Obama winning by 11 points instead of 7-the highest margin of any pollster.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
They did initially
I think it started upwards of 15 points, and gradually shifted down to something like 11 by election day.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
squishy swing voters
will keep us on a roller coaster for the next 6 months!

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!


[ Parent ]
Nevada Democrats get stupid...
Nevada Dems: GSA hearings are 'an attack on Las Vegas'

http://dailycaller.com/2012/04...


NY-6: Asian Candidate Running On Green Party Line
Looks like the GE clown car in NY-6 keeps getting bigger. So far we know Meng will be on the Indy line & Lancman on the WF. Now an Asian Some Dude by the name of Evergreen Chou is running on the Green Party line:
http://www.cityandstateny.com/...
Gotta love a Green Pary candidate named Evergreen! Halloran's got to be loving this. My only fear is that either Lancman or Meng find some way to wiggle out of their 3rd party lines if they lose the primary. The eraly June primary really works to Halloran's disadvantage here.

Just hope
Crowley wins the Dem primary

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
TN-3
Shocking poll. I don't know who sponsored it. Fleischmann at 25% doesn't pass my smell test.

http://atr.rollcall.com/tennes...

Smells like it was done for Mayfield.
Who is he?  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


It says right in the first sentence of that article
that it was done for Mayfield's campaign

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
Oops
Who's he?  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Scottie Mayfield
He's the owner of Mayfield Dairy, a major ice cream company down in the Southeast. He's probably winning based on the sweet memories associated with the word "Mayfield" in Southerners' minds.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
Pew has Mitt gaining 8 points on Obama
From +12 O to +4.
http://atr.rollcall.com/tennes...

PPP has Mitt up 54-24 for Newt in the GOP primary with Rick out.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


Correct Pew link
http://www.people-press.org/20...

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Democrats recruit candidates outside political arena
http://www.usatoday.com/news/p...

Traditionally, Democrats are more likely to go for a career in public service and Republicans are more likely to pluck candidates out of the business world. So this is a reverse.

You usually would think that politicians (e.g. state assemblymen) would have a leg up in a campaign. I wonder what the primary win percentage there is for each and if one does better in the general. Obviously, there are other factors (name recognition, fundraising) but if you include enough people in your sample, that could even out a bit.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Another joke of an article
on candidate recruitment.

It is really hard to know where to start.

Ami B has been running nonstop since the middle of 2009. Can you really call me a DCCC recruit?  Apparently someone in DC talked to several local assemblypeople about running for this seat but no one step forward.  

To compete against Schilling folks in DC talked to several local state senators.  One even filed but later withdrew.  Bustos was not recruited but rather she is was what the party settled on. She has Union connections through her husband that apparently was missed in the USA today story.

In a similar way in WI8 numerous others apparently got calls to run but all of the better known candidates bailed on the race.  

I note that the millionaire businessman in MD6 was certainly not recruited in 2012 but spent his way to a nomination this year.

I guess the DCCC failed to pass along notes on retread loser running in NV1, OH6, NY23(Maffai)  and NH1.

We also see a variety of connected pols running in CT, NY, PA, NC, FL, CO, TX, NM, AZ, WA and CA.

In fact other then MS Demming and the Millionaire guy in VA2 the DCCC apparently courted other candidates for those seats.  In nearly every other seat the D's have politically connected old pros running.  

I guess reporters will print just about any story fed to them.  


[ Parent ]
How the GOP could steal Gabrielle Giffords seat
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

To quote Scott Brown, it's the people's seat. But of course it's WaPo, anointing the Democrat as the favorite in a GOP friendly seat for no reason at all and without evidence.

Shrug.

28, R, PA-07.


Voter registration statistics
Oct 2008

D - 148K
R - 161K
O - 113K

Oct 2010

D - 140k
R - 159K
O - 125K

April 2012

D - 130K
R - 156K
O - 124K

28, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
This is a BIG R trend
Since 2010! Ds should dream of winning AZ and spend all their money here.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Alexrod attacks Gallup's methologies.
"Smart piece from Ron Brownstein on polling, demographics and why Gallup is saddled with some methodological problems."

https://twitter.com/#!/davidax...

33, R, IN-09


Maybe Mr. Axelrod
Could release the WH internals and show us how it is done.  

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
White house of course
attacked Fox news for being biased but were silent on MSNBC.  I guess the white house sees Gallup as biased while PPP is nonpartisan?

[ Parent ]
TX-Sen: Dewhurst & Cruz both on the air with a "statewide buys"
I offer the link to Cruz's ad without comment:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

Dewhurst meanwhile goes hard negative on Cruz in an ad accusing him of helping a chinese company defraud Americans:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

NWOTSOTB, but by the above I'm assuming this is big money.

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


I Will Love It When Cruz Wins This... (nt)


[ Parent ]
Just putting this out there so no one is shocked
If it happens. Don't be surprised if Ellmers loses in the primary.  

23, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Hello Senator Tillis! -    

If What Happens?...
(And I think I'm rooting against her, actually.)  

[ Parent ]
Why in the world would you do that?


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Who is Ellmer's top foe
in the primary.  No one under 40% is the threshold for a runoff?

[ Parent ]
A man named Richard Speer
is starting to cause a lot of talk within the Tea Party in the 2nd district, and within Republican party circles who aren't really associated with the tea party.  

23, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Hello Senator Tillis! -    

[ Parent ]
To who?
She has 3 challengers but none of them looks like someone who could upset an incumbent.  

[ Parent ]
Richard Speer
http://www.speerforcongress.com/

That's a link to his website that's up.

I"m not saying she will lose, but I'm just saying that if she does, don't think it came out of no where.

She's caused a lot of stir within repubilcan party circles this past week because of what happened in my own counties GOP mens dinner she spoke at last week. A lot, and I mean a lot of people are upset with her about that.  

23, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Hello Senator Tillis! -    


[ Parent ]
What happened at the dinner?
This is interesting; Ellmers is one of those candidates who came literally out of nowhere in 2010 and never got a full scrutiny from the primary electorate.

[ Parent ]
Here's some of what happened,
http://dailyhaymaker.com/?p=2850

http://dailyhaymaker.com/?p=2854

I talked to some people on my local Republican party from my county's fb page, and one guy said he was there. He said she was very rude to people, and that he and a lot of others there will do everything they can to make sure she does not get re-elected.

They even went as far as saying they wouldn't vote for her if she were to receive the nomination in the second district. Which is saying something for these people. He's one of the loyal Republicans.  

23, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Hello Senator Tillis! -    


[ Parent ]
Casey for Holden in PA17
Did I miss this over the weekend?  Was it discussed here?  This seems like a big deal.  I still think Holden is the favorite but my view is an armchair one from far far away.

article is here

http://thetimes-tribune.com/ne...


Definitely a big deal
I am not sure how else to say this, but bringing Casey is the second biggest thing for Holden behind Clinton in this district.  

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Those Self-Hating Tea Partiers
http://www.nationalreview.com/...

I really have to worry about a survey where 4% of Tea Party members have a negative view of the Tea Party and 9% have no opinion. If you have no opinion, why did you join? And how can you not have an opinion if you've joined the group?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Main reason guys join a group they don't care for
Impress a lady who's in it

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO Pattonville School District, Maryland Heights Fire District (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
^This
This sounds like when Mac from It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia joins a fundamentalist anti-abortion group to impress a chick and then asks her for an abortion when she claims she's pregnant. Heh.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
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