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Morning Roundup for April 18th, 2012

by: BostonPatriot

Wed Apr 18, 2012 at 08:00:00 AM EDT


POTUS

Romney: The two Republican leaders in Congress, John Boehner and Mitch McConnell, endorsed Romney. Both men stayed unsurprisingly neutral while the primary outcome was still in doubt. Expect the endorsement floodgates to open one final time.

Obama: In equally unsurprising news, Obama will roll out the endorsements of the big environmental groups this afternoon. When you think about this, these are clearly very important backers for Obama campaign, as he has passed on some popular programs (like Keystone) to keep the green left happy.

Veepstakes: Consider the door very much open to a VP bid by the Big Fella. Chris Christie said he's "not looking" to be on the ticket, but "would listen if Romney called" him about an opportunity. This contrasts with Marco Rubio, who has repeatedly shot down any VP talk.

2016: One thing I do like about PPP is that they run a lot of fun hypotheticals, and now they've taken a very early look at 2016. For Democrats, Hillary Clinton has overwhelming support if she runs (wait, have I heard that one before?), and Joe Biden leads Andrew Cuomo and assorted others if she doesn't. The GOP field (presuming Romney loses, or isn't running) is closer, with Christie narrowly ahead of Mike Huckabee and Jeb Bush.

Senate

Indiana: Dick Lugar gets a badly-needed endorsement from the Chamber of Commerce, which can help him in two ways. First, the CoC is a trusted name among the center-right Republicans that Lugar needs to win renomination, and secondly, they have plenty of money to spend if they're so inclined. It's been a bad stretch for Lugar and it's becoming tougher to see him winning with only 20 days to go.

Missouri: Todd Akin won the quarter on the GOP side, taking in a decent $416K to Sarah Steelman's $179K and John Brunner's $168K. However, the deep-pocketed Brunner also tossed in $1.2M of his own money, so he's well ahead in the cash race.

Nebraska: Jon Bruning looks like a frontrunner in his new ad, speaking directly to the camera about his record as AG. NWOTSOTB, but Nebraska is a pretty cheap state. Less than a month to go until this primary.

Wisconsin: Eric Hovde, the self-funding late entry to the GOP field here, is up on TV with an introductory 60-second spot backed by a huge $450K buy. Wisconsin hasn't elected a self-funding Republican businessman to the Senate in almost 18 months now, so it will be interesting to see how Hovde pans out.

House

FL-26: Some rare good news for Rep. David Rivera: state prosecutors have completed an 18-month investigation of his finances and will not charge him with any criminal or ethical violations. There's still the matter of an FBI investigation into another shady-looking financial deal, but might Rivera actually be in the clear now? His Democratic opponents are lackluster, and no Republicans are stepping up to challenge him.

MD-06: A John Delaney internal gives him a 48-39 lead over Rep. Roscoe Bartlett, whom redistricting has made one of the half-dozen most vulnerable Republicans in the country.

TX-16: Silvestre Reyes (yeah, he's a Congresssman; I had to look him up too) is facing a strong primary challenge from the awesomely-named Beto O'Rourke, and Bill Clinton is endorsing him because....surprise! Reyes was a Hillary backer in 2008. Bubba has also endorsed Mark Critz and Brad Sherman, both Clinton loyalists facing fellow Members.

WA-01: Suzan DelBene picked up two endorsements this week: from Rep. Rick Larsen, who represents a good portion of the new 1st, and Gov. Chris Gregoire, who narrowly won the district in 2008. DelBene is one of 5 Democrats running here.

DCCC: The Dems are out with the initial blueprint for their fall IEs: $32M over 36 districts, beginning after labor day. Note that these are reservations and not buys, and can be modified or cancelled as races progress. The full list is at the link; I find the North Carolina and Central Florida buys to be particularly interesting.

States

North Carolina: In this video, Bev Perdue responds to the ongoing sexual abuse scandal in the NCDP and demonstrates the leadership qualities that have served her so well in her term as governor. (As with Perdue's term, things starts to unravel about 45 seconds in.) Perdue pulled things together later on and called for Chairman David Parker to resign.

Utah: The Utah Foundation has a comprehensive poll of delegates to Saturday's state GOP convention, which has lots of goodies for us. Orrin Hatch is flirting with the 60% he needs to avoid a primary, as is RRH enemy Gary Herbert, whose closest challenger is Morgan Philpot. On the House side, Chris Stewart and David Clark lead the rest of the field in the new UT-02 and look like good bets to make the primary ballot. In Matheson's UT-04, Mia Love has a moderate lead over Carl Wimmer and Steve Sandstrom.

Washington: I suppose this is the kind of stuff that happens in a top-two system: Rob McKenna (R) insisted he's "not Scott Walker" and called the Wisconsin governor's impact on the GOP "unfortunate." Yes, McKenna is running in a close race in a tough state, but does he really have to go out of his way to bash one of the most ardently supported governors in his party?

Wisconsin: Democrats and unions have already spent over a million dollars on TV ads for their upcoming gubernatorial primary: $758K for Kathleen Falk and $313K for Tom Barrett. The unions would probably prefer to save their money for Scott Walker, but appear worried that their preferred candidate, Falk, will lose the primary. Meanwhile, Walker and the RGA have reserved $4.4M in air time for May and June.

More Wisconsin: The Dems are also trying one more round of Senate recalls, and PPP/Kos finds Republicans leading in all four (which is good, because we need to hold them all to keep the chamber). The only close race is SD-23, where Van Wanggaard's lead is 48-46.  

BostonPatriot :: Morning Roundup for April 18th, 2012
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Regarding WI
Quite likely that in 2013, the GOP will hold both senate seats, the governorship and both houses of the legislature for the first time since?...
Blame Scott Walker!

In this blue-leaning state...  

25, Male, R, NY-10


Wisconsin
Walker and Johnson and the legislature won in the reddest year in decades, Thompson/Neumann is far from a lock to win (Although Thompson would have a slight edge).

I would certainly agree that Wisconsin is much more purple if not 100% purple at this point.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
I can agree with that
My point was that more likely than not, the GOP will have all 5 branches. And by the way, I meant holding the legislature after 2012 which doesn't seem to be yet such a red year.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
WI-LEG
I agree they will most likely hold it, but thats due to a very strong gerrymander, I think with a neutral redistricting it would up for grabs, but you are right that they will most likely hold it.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
If things turn really ugly for Obama
I could see Wisconsin be this year's Indiana.  

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1



[ Parent ]
AR-04: Cotton and Rankin TIED at 38.5
The latest Talk Business-Hendrix College Poll, conducted on Tuesday, April 17, 2012, asked questions of 542 likely Republican primary voters in Arkansas' Fourth Congressional District, which encompasses all or part of 33 counties.

Results of the survey show Beth Anne Rankin of Magnolia and Tom Cotton of Dardanelle are in a tie with 38.5% support. GOP candidate John Cowart of Genoa has 4% support and 19% are undecided.

Read more here: http://talkbusiness.net/2012/0...

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.


This is with prior name recognition of Rankin
Seems to suggest that Cotton will win. He has the money.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Yeah!
I'm stoked! Tom Cotton is going to be an amazing Congressman and probably one of the very smartest members in the whole US House. Everyone who has met him talks about his brilliance and he's a down the line fiscal conservative. He's also charismatic and can fundraise. I really hope he beats Rankin in the primary.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

[ Parent ]
And the momentum
His only problem might be geography, but ads should take care of that.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Cotton is probably winning close
to 80% of the undecideds from a few months ago.

[ Parent ]
McKenn
but does he really have to go out of his way to bash one of the most ardently supported governors in his party?

Sadly, the answer might be yes.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.


*McKenna


From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

[ Parent ]
WA state is bluer than WI
and I suggest that Unions are in a better position in WA -- some of the pro-Union Rs from my time there are still in office (though I may not be up to speed on their current positions).  

Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"

[ Parent ]
I have no problem with McKenna opposing Walker's reforms
By all means, he needs to do what's necessary to win, including distancing himself from the national party. But I don't like that he called Walker out by name. Democrats and unions have invested a lot of time and money into making Walker's name synonymous with bad governance; they don't need help from Republicans.  

[ Parent ]
I don't care for this at all
The #1 turnoff for me for any Republican is endorsing members of the other party. The #2 turnoff is directly criticizing members of your own party who are doing good things. It's not a deal-breaker, but it certainly makes me much less excited to see him win. As far as I am concerned, I'd like to see the RGA spend its money on someone who actually embraces the party's agenda. He doesn't have to go all-out to support Walker, but he doesn't have to lend credence to the other side's arguments either.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
UT delegates
92% of R delegates are Mormon! Up from 78% in 2010.

Will Mitt get 97-99% in the primary?

38%! Of the D delegates too.  

25, Male, R, NY-10


Which is why Matheson is toast
Turnout in UT will be insanely high in Nov.

[ Parent ]
The McKenna words in the article aren't so bad
It's not like he'll be able to do the same with a D legislature. He'll have a strong veto power. That's all.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

Biden
I can't imagine that at 74 he would run for president. Especially since has first went to Washington in 1972. That is 44 years. I just can't imagine he pulls a trigger and runs. Hilary on the other hand, very well may. She will only be 69, which is old, but not septegenarian status.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

I don't think Hillary is a serious candidate
The Clintons and Bushes are of a prior era in politics and government. People born in 1993 will be 23 by that time.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
I Pray That You Guys Nominate Biden Next Time! (nt)


[ Parent ]
I doubt we will
I haven't talked to any Democrats who want him to run, even ones who like/admire him.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
I like him.
I'm just not sure I'd want him as the party's nominee.

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
Scott Brown headline in the Boston Herald
Scott Brown taps evil empire Yankees prez pitches in $2,500 to re-election

http://www.bostonherald.com/ne...

25, Male, R, NY-10


Scott Brown
Too bad his campaign has already come out in support of the donation.  He could have publicly ripped up a giant copy of the check in front of Fenway and said he will win without the money.

33, R, IN-09

[ Parent ]
If Brown was smart
he'd say he's using the money to buy "Red Sox Fans for Brown" buttons, signs & bumper stickers and give them away outside Fenway because there is nothing sweeter than having the Yankees pay for free goodies for Red Sox fans!

[ Parent ]
Too bad the Red Sox owners didn't give him some cash
But they are huge moonbats...

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
Elizabeth Warren's buddies
Meet the head of the Paulbots (give me a better word to use...)
This dog has legs
http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

Obama aides shot back that it was a low blow because the president was a kid at the time that he sampled dog meat.

I don't know about you, but I don't know any 6-10 year olds that'd eat dog meat. My nephews love dogs and I could see them running from the table crying and screaming if they were told dog meat was on the table.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


at the very least
It's something you probably wouldn't want to put in your own autobiography as an adult.  And vividly enough to remember the texture...

[ Parent ]
Honesty
Probably, but remember he also admitted to doing cocaine so I guess he just didn't want to leave anything out.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Really?
I thought the one Conservative place I wouldn't see this attack is here.

I see no comparison between the two stories.  One is a grown man making a wrong decision on where to put his "beloved pet", another is a young child being fed something that is normal food in that country.  Not even comparable.  

Now if Obama had eaten dog later on in life I would have a bigger problem with it (I still do have a major problem with dog being consumed anywhere, but again he was a child).

I also find it funny that many who dismissed the Seamus story as nothing are now trumpeting this story (Not saying LCL, but people on twitter and people I know IRL).

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
Obsured
This entire matter is getting a tad annoying for my tastes.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
I think both stories
are totally irrelevant.

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!


[ Parent ]
The stories
Romney putting his dog's car carrier on the roof was certainly insensitive, although I imagine my dog would love it. He loves getting the wind in his face. The further he's out there the better. The dog was likely none the worse for wear. This was 30 years ago. It's hardly a reason to not vote for a guy.

Barack Obama ate dog, so I think the dog was worse off afterward. I have a very difficult time imagining someone eating dog, although I'm aware they do in some cultures. The remains unimaginable to Americans and I doubt you could get a 6 year old to eat dog in this country.

Republicans are tired of the most innocuous things creating outrage on the left. When they are pointed out we rarely dismiss them. What we do is point out that the left outraged at the same thing you've done. The left dismissed this as a false equivalency. (e.g. Maher/Limbaugh, Obama breaking pledge to use public funds in 2008)

I assume this is because Democrats see themselves as good people and Republicans as bad people. If Democrats did the same things as Republicans then they can't justify their actions by the simple morality of "We're good. You're bad." They'd have to take responsibility and accept that they aren't all good and they're the same as us.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
No doubt
One is clearly worse than the other. Romney's dog probably enjoyed the trip and would have hated being left at home. The Obama dog was killed and Obama's actions supported the killings of dogs. Both shouldn't be made into an issue, but if they are its clear which is worse.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Scott Brown doesn't eat his dogs!
http://www.scottbrown.com/koda...

Couldn't he have dogs that were a little more manly?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Founder of Dogs against Romney endorses eating dogs
http://www.mediaite.com/online...

If you're a kid and not preparing your own meals, it's okay.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
This really bothers me
How can you say it's okay because it's a foreign country? If I traveled to Indonesia with my dog, should I be okay for him to be served for dinner? If you're a dog lover and want to be outraged at what Romney did, that's fine, but endorsing eating dogs because he was 10 and in a foreign country really makes me angry. Just don't comment on it but what #%$ says it's okay to eat dogs?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Democrats are enraged at Romney. Dog-lovers aren't.
The dog-lovers against Romney thing was always 98% hype by the same old people who are always against the Republicans no matter what.

Now, with the reminder that Obama has actually eaten dogs before, it will become 100% hype, and will probably just disappear altogether.

Age 44. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.


[ Parent ]
Dog lovers
Using their logic it's okay to deny women rights because that's what they do in Afghanistan. It's okay to slaughter people because that's acceptable in Sudan.

Dogs are intelligent loving companions. We need to stop people from eating them anywhere. Liberals are willing to accept anything their people do. So, yeah, you're right. These people don't care about dogs. They care about being outraged at Republicans.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
You miss the point, this is a man bites dog story
(sorry I couldnt resist)

It's not the fact that the President of the United States has dined on dogs but rather the hypocricy of his campaign trying to make an issue of Romney and his pet's mode of transportation when the President has pontificated on the texture of dog meat! Yes both incidents are stupid and irrelevant. But Obama's running a Chicago style campaign in the gutter full of official "Pet Lovers for Obama" groups and million dollar "Animal Lovers Against Romney" Super PACs whose sole goal is to smear Mitt Romney as somehow cruel to animals. So when it turns out that the "lovers" in "pet lovers" for Obama is referring to a type of cuisine it becomes a story!


[ Parent ]
Don't view at as an election issue
View as a neutralizer to what Republicans think is a ridiculous effort to smear Romney for the Seamus roadtrip 30 years ago.

Either neither is an issue or they both are.

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)


[ Parent ]
Obama flip flops on Romney as flip-flopper
http://thehill.com/homenews/ca...

They've decided that Mitt really has a core and he's extreme conservative!

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Idiots
Obama is running a bad enough campaign that I almost think he wants to lose...  [sigh]  

[ Parent ]
Lol
If only he were. Do they seriously think this will play to a national audience? Most of the country is conservative.

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1



[ Parent ]
That depends
A Plurality is Conservaitve according to most polls, but not a majority.  I've heard a lot of Conservatives call Moderates Liberals, so if you go by that the majority of the country is liberal.

I would just say that a large chunk of the country is Conservative and leave it at that.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
Moderates
Ome are truly middle-of-the-road. Others are just liberal-leaning people who don't feel comfortable with the label and occasionally vote for a Republican downballot. A few others are just in denial, never vote for Republicans, but don't like the label. I've met or talked to all three types.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Identification
People on the right, and some in the center, wear the conservative badge with pride. They often see themselves as being to the right of where they are. Some people are uncomfortable being considered liberal, because it makes them out of the mainstream. So many liberals consider themselves moderate. This is why Democrats always win moderates.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Chris Carney for Holden
Looks like Ryan was not only wrong in saying that Carney would primary Holden; he's even supporting him over Cartwright. Pennsylvania politics is so weird.

http://india.nydailynews.com/a...

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.


Marist-NY: Obama leads by 22 points
"But Romney will do better in the New York suburbs"

No, he's not. Obama won suburban voters by three points (51-48) in 2008. Now he's winning them by 14 (54-40).

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/w...


A lot to extrapolate just from a poll
Marist has a bad record anyway...

Walker/Martinez 2016

[ Parent ]
Obama won NYC suburbs by 10.3 points
not sure where you're getting 3 points, that is WAY off.

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!


[ Parent ]
It probably depends on the the definition of 'suburbs.'


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
it's pretty standard for NYC
Nassau
Suffolk
Westchester
Rockland
Putnam

There's no reasonable definition where McCain could have lost by only 3.

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!


[ Parent ]
Not sure where you got that number from
Tally of the counties yourself?

CNN Exit polls 2008:
Vote by Size of Place:
Urban (41%) Obama 78%, McCain 21%
Suburban (46%) Obama 51%, McCain 48%
Rural (12%), Obama 58%, McCain 41%  


[ Parent ]
I'm pretty sure "suburban"
also includes the suburbs of Buffalo, Rochester, Albany, etc.  You would need to look at counties to get the figures for the NYC metro specifically.

Saint Paul (MN-4)  

[ Parent ]
Well, then, wouldn't that be even more amazing for
Obama's lead to have increased from 2008?

[ Parent ]
Apples and Oranges
The Marist poll is NYC/Suburbs/Upstate, which means "suburbs" is limited to the downstate suburbs, that is the 5 counties mentioned above.

The CNN exit poll is urban/suburban/rural. "Suburban" here applies to places all over the state, so the suburbs of NYC, Albany, Buffalo, Syracuse, Rochester, and perhaps even some smaller cities like Binghamton. "Urban" would include the upstate cities as well as NYC.


[ Parent ]
?
Maybe I'm reading it wrong but I think the numbers from the Marist poll is for NYC suburbs only while the CNN exit polls shows all suburban voters in the state.  You can't really compare the two because the CNN exit poll includes upstate suburban voters who are obviously more conservative than NYC suburbanites. Plus I'd guess "suburban"  self-identified on the exit polls so you probably have people in say, Staten Island, identifying as suburban and skewing the numbers.

If you crunch the numbers on DRA, Obama won the five NYC metro counties 54.5 to 44.6.  So essentially no meaningful change from Marist's 54-40.

Saint Paul (MN-4)  


[ Parent ]
Oops that's the D-R average
Obama won the five counties 55.2 to 44.0.  Still essentially the same.

Saint Paul (MN-4)  

[ Parent ]
NY counties Romney probably flips
Chautauqua
Dutchess
Madison
Niagara
Orange
Oswego
Otsego
Rockland
Saratoga
Seneca
Suffolk
Warren
Washington

If he's winning Nassau and Renesselar, he's probably outpacing Bush's '04 performance. If he emerges competitive in Monroe and Onondaga, he's winning very comfortably nationally.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
I think
he flips Nassau as well.  Bush was not well liked at all on the Island.  Mitt in theory should play well there.  Mitt is "your father's republican," which is the type of pub that was popular out on the Island.

Republican Medical Doc from New York, NY

[ Parent ]
Really!?
One of Bush's greatest improvements in the Northeast in 2004 came in Long Island.

Gore won Long Island by double-digits. He won Nassau by nearly 20%.

After 9/11, Kerry only won Long Island by the low single-digits. He won Suffolk by 1%.

I'd bet that were it not for George W. Bush and 9/11, Obama would have won Long Island by double-digits in 2008.

http://mypolitikal.com/


[ Parent ]
I think the previous poster is referring to 06 & 08 and not 04


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
basically Long Island whip sawed
Between 04 W being much more popular than most Republicans to by 06 & 08 being less popular there than average.



42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
The $32 DCCC committment
is shadow boxing IMO as nothing is set in concrete.  Now you can spend money now, at a nice discount, if you want to lock in ad buys.  I think they will spend some.  Of course in a market like the Twin cities you can either spent it on MN2 or MN8 races or on defending seats like MN1 and MN7. I note that the DCCC has it that way.  In CO most of CO3 is outside of Denver media market so I suspect we should not look too closely at that 2.4 million for Denver market.

This does play into what I suggested the other day.  

1st The battlefield is shrinking.

2nd there will be a ton of money for both parties to spent on the smaller battlefield.  


Big Buy
Is this any different than what the Republican Committee did the other week?

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Probably very similar
and while I can not claim to be an expert in these matters.  I suspect time could even be swapped between DNC-DCCC-DSCC as the stations sell time.  

[ Parent ]
mn-8
Very little of the district is in the Minneapolis media market. Most of it is covered by Duluth (which is much much cheaper) and I believe Fargo actually gets to the western portion of the district. It would be a waste of money to spend money on mn-8 advertising in Minneapolis, since the coulple counties that it would hit won't for a Democrat anyways.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
I wondered the same
about CO3 & Denver.  I wonder if so ease of understanding, do not make things too complicated for the media, they lumped media buys in CO & MN into headings for Denver & Twin Cities. That would be under the KISS theory. If for instance the DCCC committed 500K to Duluth market then math whizzes might suggest DCCC was less committed to MN8 then MN2.  Plus do you really want to give RCCC any more tips on your Nov plans?  

[ Parent ]
Same with Denver and CO-3
Most of the district gets their media from Colorado Springs, Grand Junction and Albuquerque.  

23, Democrat, CO-4 (home), MI-12 (law school) 

[ Parent ]
That jumped out at me as
well.  PLus if the DCCC is really committing 1.9 mil to CO3 while CO6 is only 500K  there would have to be some explaining to do!!!

[ Parent ]
Political ad costs are down in some markets
ref http://www.wweek.com/portland/...

I don't know if something similar is happening in MN in general and MN-08 in particular. While MN is certainly more of a swing state than OR, it's certainly not a core swing state (unless of course T-Paw becomes the R VP candidate).  

Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"


[ Parent ]
PA-12: Altmire up 4
http://www.pittsburghlive.com/...

Too many undecideds here for me to make a call.  This race might be a true tossup at this point.

28, Republican, PA-6


"Tossup" Means The Edge is Critz's IMO (nt)


[ Parent ]
What has become of us?
Missouri: Todd Akin won the quarter on the GOP side, taking in a decent $416K

A Congressman running against an incumbent Senator in a state that has a history of electing both parties to the Senate is "decent?"

Ugh, the Republican field for MO-Sen is so awful that we're on the proverbial post 5th beer phase where just about anyone looks good (or decent).

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.


Correction
*A Congressman running against an incumbent Senator in a state that has a history of electing both parties to the Senate raising $416K is "decent?"

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Compared to the field it is....


[ Parent ]
$416k Is a Fine Total At This Point
I have no idea why RRR is getting so worked up about this.  

[ Parent ]
For a House race...
Dude, my Congressman raised $602K in a seat with 1/8th of the population of Missouri. He's running for US House. Akin raised 2/3rds of his total and he's running in a crucial US Senate race.

That's a "fine total?" No, it's not.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.


[ Parent ]
As Usual, You're Over-Reacting
1) This is all Akin needs to win the Primary.

2) The NRCC will definitely spend in MO.

Akin will not be short of funds if this is race competitive, and he needs them.

So, just take a chill pill...  


[ Parent ]
Thanks, Dr. IJB.
I really appreciate your advice!

I never said Akin can't win; I simply was pointing out just how underwhelming the whole field and especially Akin has been. I think that's a very valid claim.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.


[ Parent ]
agreed


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
No, it isn't.
It's not panic time but it's severely depressing. Look at Wilson and Lingle - two people in smaller states facing tougher races and both are pulling in twice as much as Akin. Our nominee is still on track to win because McCaskill is just that weak but it'll take far more outside help than it should.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Again, The NRCC...
...won't be spending money in HI, and likely won't be spending in NM, but they will be $pending big buck$ in MO. It's not a problem.

Also, that's comparing apples and oranges - neither Wilson nor Lingle have significant primary opposition, while Akin does. It's quite possible that donors in MO are sitting the Primary out.

Hasn't it occurred to anyone that Akin will start raking in the dough after the Primary is over, and the GOP race is settled?!

Again, $415k is fine for where we are right now...  


[ Parent ]
$416k
Is not great, at all, when going up against McCaskill. He has had, what, 4 quarters, as a Senate candidate? I'm not sure if you combined all 4 quarters since he started running that it would equal what McCaskill raised this quarter. In fact, I'm almost certain it wouldn't.

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
He Doesn't Need To Match McCaskill
Challengers generally don't need to match incumbents.

All Akin needs is enough money to get his message in Missouri in the Fall (and, IIRC, the period between the Primary and the General is on the short side in MO).

One way or another, he'll have that.

Right now, all Akin needs is enough money to win the Primary.  


[ Parent ]
agreed
Money isn't everything.

There are a large number of races (both primary & general) won by a candidate who was outspent 3 to 1 or more.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
Mandel finally up on TV
Was just about to post!
Finally! Let him define the race and keep Brown on defense!

Walker/Martinez 2016

[ Parent ]
I just wish
There was something we could do to make him look and sound less like a teenager.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Mandel: How about this?
http://sfist.com/attachments/S...

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

[ Parent ]
PA-Sen; Smith pulling away?
http://tomsmithforsenate.com/n...
http://www.politicspa.com/capi...

In Smith's internal, he is up with 35%, followed by Rohrer with 16%, and Welch at 10%, with 31% undecided.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


Good
I don't understand the love for Welch here. Yes, he probably has a 10% chance of beating Casey to Smith and Rohrer's 5%, but Smith will not need one cent of outside money to win, which can't be said for the others. If TS closes with a strong ad blitz this week he should be able to seal the deal quite nicely.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Welch
Not sure he'd need money either. Casey will probably crush anyone in SW PA. This race will be won or lost in SEPA. Welch probably does very well there. Smith? Not so much

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Paring down your ad buy
in the last week of the primary = Someone who will need outside $. Welch can partially self-fund but not enough so that he won't need any help like Smith.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Welch
TBH, I think he shot himself in the foot by not just waiting for Gerlach or Meehan to run for Gov/Senate/retire. That could be a decade or longer but I feel like that would have been his best shot of winning an office he's looking for (he seems to want to be a Congressman or Senator).

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

[ Parent ]
I like Rohrer personally
Put I'd be fine with Smith, too.

It really doesn't matter though, I really can't see Casey losing in any situation.  I'd say the GOP wins HI-Sen and NM-Sen well before Casey loses.

Saint Paul (MN-4)  


[ Parent ]
Rohrer
I think I will vote for him as well.  Smith rubs me the wrong way and Welch is underwhelming to say the least.

I still doubt Smith's chances though.  He might have high name ID compared to the rest, but he completely lacks a ground game to deliver votes.  In no name races you often have this effect in Pennsylvania where the party has hacks at every polling place handing out endorsement cards to voters.  Welch will have that.  Rohrer has the grassroots who can do something like that on a more concentrated scale.  Smith has nothing.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
Rick Snyder
Rick Snyder ‏ @onetoughnerd  Reply  Retweet  Favorite · Open
Good news to report: #Michigan's unemployment rate dropped to 8.5% & total employment went up by 21,000 last month #TheReinventionIsWorking

I'm becoming more and more optimistic that he can win a second term.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.


Snyder
While the improved economy will help him, he has given the Dems a lot of material to use against him in 2014, such as the tax increase on seniors.  A lot will depend on the political environment in 2014.  If Romney was to win in 2012, it would probably be a better year for Dems and make re-election more difficult for Snyder.    

I find it interesting that MI's unemployment rate had been dropping for 1.5 years before Snyder came into office and yet he's taking credit for the downward trend.    


[ Parent ]
Latest polls had him popular


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
And
The Democrats completely lack a bench here as well.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Disagree
There's good options for the Dems: Gretchen Whitmer (my preference), Jocelyn Benson (I prefer she run for SoS again), Gary Peters (not a personal fav.), Dan Kildee (I really wish he had been the nominee in 2010).  

[ Parent ]
If these are the best MI Democrats can do, I'm not worried
Whitmer comes off as shrill and too partisan. I don't think any Majority or Minority Leader in MI will win a gubernatorial election, at least not in this era. And she's never had real contested election, running in East Lansing. She bailed on the AG race to spare her family (which I respect), but given the weak competition in that race (Leyton and Bernstein were the best you could do?), that shows a lack of fire in the belly for big races.

Benson is very telegenic and well-spoken, but she's the kind of candidate who had to win SoS in order to be viable for higher offices. Secretary of State races give you a kind of non-partisan set of issues (non-partisan to most voters) to work with, build favorables, and seem above the fray. When you have to take positions on taxes, the budget and social issues, you immediately fall into an ideology. And Benson's ideology would, in my view, place her left of Granholm. I don't think she can pull this off from her current perch at Wayne State.

Gary Peters is boring, insincere, and bad at statewide campaigning (let's not forget, lost to Mike Cox as Granholm was crushing statewide in 2002. I've seen Cox campaign close up and he wasn't the reason for that win, I'll tell you that).

Kildee is a nobody right now, except to the people of Genesee County who vaguely associate him with Dale. I've never seen him campaign, but people from Flint don't win statewide office in Michigan. They're forced to stake out positions too far to the left.


[ Parent ]
Dan Kildee
No question he's the strongest candidate MI Dems can put up right now, if he runs the way he ran for County Treasurer rather than the way he's running for congress. His land bank idea is one of the few recent liberal ideas I really like; if he ran on that he'd be a very strong contender.

Trouble is he's running for congress as a far-left occupy candidate. If he takes that playbook statewide he'll go nowhere.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
That's to be expected
Of course you don't like them but I think they would do well.

Whitmer isn't any more partisan than other politicians in Lansing.        

Benson doesn't have much of a record so I'm not sure I would say she's to the left of Granholm.  She might be but I don't know.  Benson only lost by 6% in 2010, when the top of the Democratic ticket lost by 18%.  She'll be a strong candidate in 2014...hopefully defeating Ruth Johnson.    

I agree with you on Peters.  Not my favorite candidate but I definitely see him trying for the senate or governor at some point.  

Kildee isn't well known....just like Snyder in 2010.  That's not necessarily and indication of the strength of a candidate.

 


[ Parent ]
Benson's aides were tied to the fake tea party
When Benson's running on elections, and has people like Mike McGuinness and Jason Bauer on the payroll, it really questions her judgment at best and integrity at worst, and I lean towards the latter considering her ties. I nearly danced a jig with Ruth's win. Benson would have been a disaster.

Whitmer is strong locally and on TV, but comes off a bit as Granholm II, except more to the left. Granholm worked hard to deflect her originally anti-gun stances as AG with picking John Cherry, and telling everyone that Cherry would handle the gun issue. Cherry shored up Granholm's blue collar flank, something quite underestimated and made it easier in 06. Whitmer's a Blue Cross heir as well, and I would just hammer that if I was her opponent. Everyone's got a Blue Cross story.

Granholm actually almost got caught looking in 2002. It was only a 4pt race she was expected to win by 13%. Posthumus would have had a chance if he wasn't written off. On hindsight, he could have won that.

Kildee's popular locally, but is he going to be as popular as Dale?

Speaking of which, I think the Cherrys would be possibly the strongest candidates, especially as the Granholm fatigue starts to wear off over time (like Bush fatigue). Don't underestimate their popularity with unions. Cherry also doesn't come across as shrill like Bonior did.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
Popular
There were two polls, one from a Republican firm and one EPIC-MRA poll that had him at 48% but used a sample that was a little too Republican.  Snyder's approval ratings have, indeed, improved do the economy.  He, however, is certainly not beloved by voters.

Also, I didn't realize the election would occurring today.  A lot can happen in the next 2.5 years.  


[ Parent ]
Watch the snark in the last line
This is how comment fights start.

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)

[ Parent ]
Bob McDonnell running ads for veep
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

Maybe it could also be useful, as he could scare Warner into running for governor again, so that he gets an easy shot at a senate seat - wishful thinking, I know!

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


Democracy Corps(e)
Watch them spin desperately a poll that has Rs up nicely in swing districts.
http://www.democracycorps.com/...

Extremely laughable.  

25, Male, R, NY-10


Push polling
Is anyone that surprised?

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
It's another data point
That Rs should easily hold the house. Congressional Rs are running 9 points on the margin ahead of Obama.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
This is an amazing poll for Republicans
As long as you just read the facts. They make it sound like this election not favoring the Republicans as much as 2010 is a surprise and a positive for Democrats. No one expects 2010. We'll settle for neutral.

They mention Republicans have low approval ratings in new districts. They don't mention disapproval ratings. Wouldn't you expect both to drop in districts less people know you?

Republicans know they have more districts than they should. When you have so many toss-up districts you expect to lose some. If Republican incumbents lead generic Democrats by 6 points, then the GOP will win most of those races. They're toss-ups. Why would we expect a big lead?

They talk about how Obama is doing well and Romney poorly and then mention that they are virtually even in their approval. Romney runs way behind Obama nationally after the brutal GOP primaries. We've seen that Romney get more votes than his approval, while Obama gets less than his. Sounds great.

Finally, they were "including using Ryan's own language." That's not his preferred language. The questions are obviously asked in a way that will produce negative Republican results.

Do they expect people to believe their spin?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
a newer trick
They mention Republicans have low approval ratings in new districts. They don't mention disapproval ratings

I can say Bob Menendez only has a 35% approval rating, so he's doomed.


[ Parent ]
Did I miss this switch
last week.  Another hispanic D switches to R party.

http://latino.foxnews.com/lati...


Quite old


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Just checked
6 weeks ago on March 5.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Meh. Moved from a D district to an easy McCain district
in redistricting. This is just political preservation.

[ Parent ]
Using that logic
you would expect Robert Dold-Bobby Schilling among others to switch to the D party.  Likewise McIntyre-Shuler-Barrow and others switch to the GOP.

So exactly how many pols have switched this year due to bad redistricting situations?


[ Parent ]
A couple in the South, no? I'm just saying that this move
does not seem terribly inspired by principle.

[ Parent ]
Makes sense
South Texas is more Conservative than the Voting record suggests.  A lot of those Hispanics fit into the Yellow-Dog mold of being Conservative on most issues but voting loyally D anyway.

Also, as is mentioned above, his new seat is easily winnable by a Hispanic Republican, so Lozano's basically deciding to play ball with the winners.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
Fun Fact
Lozano represents Brooks county, which is the only county in US history to have never voted for a Republican presidential candidate.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
What's The Historical Reason for That? (nt)


[ Parent ]
To put it simply
Its a very small, rural, extremely poor South Texas county, with a heavily hispanic population.  Republicans won next to nothing in Texas until the 50s and 60s anyway, and Brooks was no exception.  After that, the Democrats were able to hold on to the local apparatus moving forward, and its one of the Democrat's better South Texas Counties as a result.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
TN-03, reposted
I just talked to my uncle in the Chattanooga area, and he clarified a few things. First let me say that he goes to county GOP meetings (in Walker County, GA), and is a reliable source, though he hasn't been following this primary closely.
Fleischmann: Apparently, Fleischmann is viewed as a dork who doesn't do well with the public. He didn't make many public appearances in 2010 until late in the campaign, which turned people off, and he comes off as a dork on television.

Wamp: my uncle was very annoyed that Wamp tried this, and has heard similar feelings from other locals.

Mayfield: This guy took his family business and built it into a dairy empire. Many Chattanoogans know him because he used to be in his own commercials. He's a local legend. Think Fred Smith on a smaller scale. My uncle wasn't at all surprised that he might be in the lead.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)


New York Candidates
http://www.elections.ny.gov:80...

I'm surprised no one has posted this. I expect someone who knows New York to do a diary. Does this skip districts because there is only one candidate in each party and thus no election?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


NH Darmouth: Romney up 2
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballo...

Romney was the choice of 44 percent of voters surveyed, versus 42 percent who favor Obama.  

27, R, PA-07.


Was there a poll last month
with a double digit Obama lead in NH?

I cannot recall off the top of my head.  


[ Parent ]
An ARG One
Though crosstabs, which I often ignore, were such a mess as to cast doubt on it. 33% or some such of Republicans were going for Obama.

This looks about right. NH will be about R+1 or so this year.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
National v. state polls
About a week or so ago, when the RCP average had President Obama ahead by 4, I looked at the latest state polls to see how it translated. I found that while Mitt had gained 3 points nationally over McCain, he'd only gained an average of 1.5 in the state polls.

There may be a few reasons for this. Very often there was only one state poll, it wasn't always in the last month, and a lot of them were done by PPP. Now the RCP average is Obama by 1.7 points. That's a 5+ point swing. If states moved in a uniform way from 2008, Romney would pick up North Carolina, Indiana, Florida, Ohio, and NE-2.

Taking all of those states would still result in an Obama 285-253 electoral vote lead. In fact, if Mitt moved every state 7.5 points, enough to win nationally, he wouldn't move any other states. He'd have to the move states that Obama won by  9.7 points or less.

This shows the incredible job Obama did in swing states in 2008. Of course states don't move uniformly and if Mitt wins the popular vote, he'll probably also win the electoral vote.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Yep
The good news is that even if Mitt only swings things by 7.5%, there are a bunch of states between 7.5% and 10% that are pretty big swingers. Obviously, very Independent NH is one of those, but polling has shown Romney to be more competitive in PA and IA than the nationwide swing would indicate.

The one state Romney really seems to be sucking in that one would think he would pick up with a 5% swing is Ohio. VA seems to be all over the place, and PPP's last poll in CO was disheartening.  

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
Florida Hearing
http://miamiherald.typepad.com...

The article is messed up in that it is printed twice. The Florida Democratic party is the wrong group to bring suit here. You can't stand up there and say that the legislature map is about politics and then present your own map. No one is going to believe Democrats aren't doing the same.

They should've left it to private citizens, all Democrats if they like, as they are the ones who can argue they are impacted.

A judge can't look at the Democratic maps and say "these give you three more districts. Approved!"

The two new districts FL-9 and FL-22 are Democratic leaning, not Republican leaning. Are the Dems pulling a fast one and claiming that FL-26 and FL-27 are the new districts?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


It's like Texas.
They just wave their hand in one direction, distracting you so that you can't see the other hand, the one where they actually get new seats already.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Rep. Larry Kissell (D-N.C.) has joined the Blue Dog Coalition
I still don't think the Blue Dogs
Will number more than 20 members after the 2012 elections.  

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
100%
5 are leaving this year and at least a half a dozen more will have tough reelections. I would say the mid teens and what will be left aren't real blue dogs from years ago.

[ Parent ]
Kissell Is The One Guy...
...I'm worried about beating.  :/

He should be an easy 'beat'. But, for some reason, so far, he ain't been.  


[ Parent ]
Richard Hudson
should take him down if he gets through the primary.

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1



[ Parent ]
Agreed.
I'm not worried about Kissell winning. The only D who I think will be left standing will be McIntyre, if any of them are left.

We'll get a better picture of McIntyre's standing around August.  

22, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) LUKE 18:5 is the official GOTV verse for 2014! -    


[ Parent ]
Kissell has no shot
McIntrye is a little less than 50/50 at this point to win.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
No
If Bartlett is gone, then Kissell is definitely gone. His district got much more suburban, and we're talking about hardcore Republican Charlotte suburbanites and exurbanites. He also got hard R rurals in Central NC.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
MD-06 does not equal NC-08 (nt)


[ Parent ]
I'm not talking about PVI.
I'm talking about perceptions. Bartlett's seat is still theoretically winnable for him, but he is very, very, very likely to lose. The same goes for Kissell.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
I can see where you are going with that
But for example, I think everybody routinely sees Bartlett as closer to Boehner/Cantor than Kissell to Pelosi/Hoyer.  

[ Parent ]
Jindal Convinced Perry to Get Rid of Carney?
http://dailycaller.com/2012/04...

Supposedly, Jindal and his advisers convinced Perry to get rid of Dave Carney- Perry's closest adviser. It wouldn't surprise me, as some of Jindal's top aides, most notably former CoS and campaign manager Timmy Teepell, had roles in the Perry campaign. Teepell denies this story  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


IN-Sen: Daniels, McCain, to cut ads for Lugar
Daniels, OK. But McCain? Link

That article also mentions a Mourdock internal that has him up 1 (42-41) that I hadn't seen posted at RRH yet (his last internal, in January, had him down 12).

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


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