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Elections have consequences, from the race for President to the race for one seat on a city council. Those elections are the products of fascinating interactions between campaigns, party affiliations, voter turnout, and the media spotlight. Red Racing Horses analyzes and discusses elections from a Republican-leaning perspective. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog.

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Morning Political Roundup for April 23rd, 2012

by: Daniel Surman

Mon Apr 23, 2012 at 08:00:00 AM EDT


Welcome all! We have a Veepstakes section to keep up with the speculation on Romney's eventual running-mate and lots of Texas and Minnesota news in this morning's edition of the roundup.

President-General

Goode: Former Rep. Virgil Goode (R-VA) won the endorsement of the Constitution Party this weekend. He faced a late-breaking challenge from 2008 Vice-Presidential nominee Darrell Castle, a lawyer from Tennessee. He won on the first ballot with 50.3% of the vote, barely avoiding a second ballot. A good write-up of Goode's positions and approach here at Uncovered Politics. One tidbit: he was part of Ron Paul's small study group in Congress and wants to appeal to his supporters.

President-Primary

Minnesota: Yes, I know, Romney is the inevitable nominee. However, it is still worth paying attention to the primary contest to measure activist approval/disapproval of Romney and how the others (Paul/Gingrich) will impact Romney moving forward. In Minnesota this weekend, Paul won 10 national delegates of 12 up for grabs at congressional district conventions. With all of the congressional districts allocated, Paul now has 20 delegates from the state. It seems almost guaranteed that Paul will have a plurality of delegates here. If Paul gets his five state pluralities to meet the threshold for the RNC, where do they come from?

Missouri: Missouri caucuses also occurred on Saturday, and Romney came out much stronger there. His supporters teamed up with the Santorum crowd to deny Paul a majority of delegates. Romney came out with 12 delegates, Santorum 7, Paul 4, and Gingrich 1. More on the conventions here.

Veepstakes

Rubio: Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) will be stumping with Mitt Romney in Pennsylvania. The Senator recently declined to comment on potentially being selected as Romney's running mate after previously making the effort to dispel such speculation. The joint appearance is seen as a test of how the two work together on the campaign trail.

Huntsman: In a wide-ranging interview with Zeke Miller, former Utah Governor Huntsman expressed regret for opposing tax increases (coupled with spending cuts) while comparing the withdrawal of a speaking invitation from party officials to Communist China. Oh yeah, and he also took himself out of the running for Vice President.

Daniels: If the Indiana Governor were picked, Mitch Daniels recently told Fox News Sunday that he would "demand reconsideration" and send Mitt  Romney a list of individuals better for the job. That's one way of removing speculation!

Senate

Texas: Tom Leppert has spent "several million dollars" to go up on the air statewide between now and the May 29th. We have not seen much spending yet from Ted Cruz, while David Dewhurst has the largest warchest in the race. Surprisingly, Leppert seems to have finished strong in the only televised debate of the race. While Cruz has his own ads, he also has a stronger ground operation than  Leppert; the battle for second (and more importantly, a runoff berth against David Dewhurst if he finishes below 50%) is between them. Ross  Ramsey on expectations in the Senate race here.

Florida: State CFO Jeff Atwater took himself out of the running over the weekend in a post on his Facebook page, so no last-minute savior will be entering this race. Rep. Connie Mack is the frontrunner in the primary against former Senator George LeMieux, but Mack has not been fundraising or connecting as well with voters as observers had hoped when he jumped into the race.

Minnesota: Former Vets for Freedom head Pete Hegseth and former State Rep. Dan 'Doc' Severson are more aggressively targeting State Rep. Kurt Bills for his connections to Ron Paul. Paul supporters are expected to be greater than 40% and less than 50% of the voting strength at the state GOP convention (where the pre-primary endorsement will be decisive with all candidates pledging to abide), so Bills is likely the frontrunner here. However, much will depend on how the dropped candidate's supporters break on the second ballot- will Hegseth and Severson delegates unite to deny Bills the endorsement?

House

TX-21: If you had any doubt Rep. Lamar Smith would have trouble after authoring SOPA, let them die now. He raised $210k in the first quarter to libertarian favorite Richard Mack's $25k and activist Richard Morgan's $7k. Mack has close connections to the RLC and Debra Medina, but he never got the national attention that other Paul supporters have leveraged to raise money. As Rice University political scientist Mark Jones puts it, Lamar Smith's re-election is "100% guaranteed."

PA-17: After Rep. Tim Holden accepted a negative ad ceasefire, this nasty mailer from Matt Cartwright's campaign went out to voters. "Tim Holden's Votes Will Make You Sick!" the mailer reads, with a picture of a hospitalized woman on the side. Apparently it was too late to pull the mailer. In other news, former Governor Ed Rendell issued a last-minute endorsement to Holden before tomorrow's primary.

MI-07: The Eaton County Democrats' Twitter is touting an 'important announcement' from former Congressman Joe Schwarz tonight, a sign he may finally be moving forward with a run.

MN-01: After a marathon 23 rounds of balloting, delegates to the 1st congressional district convention decided to call it quits and reconvene in May to issue an endorsement in the contest to take on Rep. Tim Walz (DFL). Neither State Senator Mike Parry or former State Rep. Allen Quist cracked $50k in their fundraising for the first quarter, so the seat is  at least likely Democrat. Other endorsement contests have gone longer in Minnesota history: in 1974 the contest between Senator Tony Perpich and Jim Oberstar went 30-40 rounds, according to the recollection of former State Rep. Joe Begich. However, it is the longest since the 1980s.

LA-03: Good catch from fellow moderator James_Nola: 

Several articles on the LA-03 race this week have pointed out that Landry has not officially announced his bid. His website gives it away though. On his logo, the new LA-03 is now highlighted, not the old one: 

Redistricting

Maryland: Governor Martin O'Malley told reporters recently that  "There are no real winners in redistricting" and if there are, they are only "coincidental or incidental" winners. So just to be clear, politicians drawing the boundaries for their own offices produces a process where nobody wins or loses? Color me skeptical.

Miscellaneous

Arizona House: Faced with an ethics probe and general dislike from everybody in the legislature, Democratic State Rep. Daniel Patterson recently resigned his seat. However, before he did so he changed his registration to independent. Now the local Board of Supervisors is left in the unprecedented situation of lacking any rules to appoint a replacement. The Board decided to have a five-member committee (2 Democrats, 2 Republicans, 1 independent) select an indepedent to replace Patterson. The replacement will be Arizona's first independent state legislator, after Patterson.

Women: A good write-up from WaPo on myths about women voters. The big one:

When we talk about female voters, we need to be specific about which women we mean. White, married, rural and suburban women have been trending Republican for years. In fact, white women as a whole haven’t gone Democratic since 1964. While for single, highly educated and urban women, the opposite is true; those remain reliably Democratic demographics.

Daniel Surman :: Morning Political Roundup for April 23rd, 2012
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Ray Kelly 2013
GOP and Manhattan moneybags laying the groundwork, or so they want you to believe.
http://m.nypost.com/p/news/loc...

Maybe he will run in the end and as izengabe says, it's best to pretend now that he isn't so nobody can attack the esteemed police chief on the job when he's not running.  

25, Male, R, NY-10


Rudy did the same thing in 1989
He stayed on as US Attorney until late January of 1989. The whole time he was laying groundwork for the run but denying he had any interest in it. Ray Kelly if following that model which is why the money people are laying the groundwork while he denies interest.

[ Parent ]
And there's already quarreling on the Dem side
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/l...

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Standard Campaign Fare
Nothing crazy there.  I'd prefer Quinn to Stringer.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
You should
Stringer is a baffoon.

[ Parent ]
Minnesota
has settled on a GOP nominee in MN7 but not MN1.  The D's have a nominee in MN6 but not MN8 or MN2?  Does this sound right?


that is correct
But remember, NOTHING is actually truly official til September when the primaries happen. But in  most races, all candidates pledge to abide by the party's endorsement.  

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
PA-12: Critz is cooked
If the forecasts are correct, the North Hills and Beaver County will get 2 inches of snow. Johnstown, with its typically awful luck, will get 10-15. #StickAForkInCritz (if the forecast is correct).

From the old IL-10/new IL-09, living in PA-07
The GOP's roadmap to restored relevance: more Steve Litzows and fewer Steve Kings


15 is better than 5 or 6
If it's 5 or 6, they will still likely keep the polls open.  If it's 15 and polling places cannot physically open (the elderly workers can't drive their '88 Skylarks in a foot and a half), there is a chance they'll have to reschedule.  A logistical nightmare, but not completely unheard of (9/11/01 NYC).

[ Parent ]
Actually
I think this is a bigger problem for Altmire.  His base is located in a suburban area which is heavily wooded where as Johnstown is a pretty populated area.  I would not be shocked if we saw widespread power outages across the entire district.  Power loss might be a bigger menace than the snow itself.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
AZ Independent for State House
Hey, maybe proven Independent Colleen Mathis has a suggestion for a replacement. . . or maybe she can suggest herself!/s

From the old IL-10/new IL-09, living in PA-07
The GOP's roadmap to restored relevance: more Steve Litzows and fewer Steve Kings


How blue is this district?


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
it's a silly rule
The appointee should be of the party who last won the seat in an election (Democrat).

[ Parent ]
She's back.
Cynthia McKinney has filed papers with the FEC to run for Congress in GA-04 as the nominee of the Green Party.

She'll need to get the signatures of ~18,000 registered voters by August 6th in order to be on the November ballot. Not sure if those voters have to be specifically from the 4th district, or just anywhere in Georgia.

If Everything breaks exactly the right way for her, I could see her maxing out around 20-25% against Hank Johnson in a General Election.

Age 43. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.


aargh; my least favorite politician from GA
That would be an example of a race where if there's no Republican candidate I would vote for the Democrat.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
There's actually 3 GOP candidates seeking the nomination.
Which seems kind of strange since the district was 73-26 for Obama in 2008. Two of the 3 candidates are white, running in a district that (mostly) hasn't had a white-GOP representative since 1988. One of the 2 has the endorsement of Herman Cain.

Age 43. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.

[ Parent ]
Morning Thougths
TX-Sen: The question has to be, who does Leppert take more votes from, Dewhurst or Cruz? I would assume Dewhurst, but I could be wrong.

FL-Sen: Mack needs to get it in gear. Now. I'm worried that he's relying on his surname too much.

MI-07: This is annoying.

LA-03: Landry needs to be doing events like crazy. He's a first-termer, so he needs to actively entrench in his areas and make appearances in Boustany's vulnerable areas.

Women: Yep.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)


Joe Schwarz has been annoying for 20+ years
He's just being himself.

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

[ Parent ]
His natural state
He is the most vindictive Congressman I ever met.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Even more annoying
Schwarz's "important announcement" isn't about his potential run for congress.  He says he will announce his decision about running later in the week.  

http://www.mlive.com/news/jack...



[ Parent ]
If I lived a mile south
If I lived a mile south past the county line into Northern Washtenaw County, I'd be quite tempted to vote in the dem primary for Kurt Haskell if Schwarz runs, for no other reason to knock down his ego.

After 11 years of party politics and PAC issue politics, one crosses paths with a lot of different pols in both parties. I've met hundreds, although I won't claim to know most of them because meeting someone doesn't mean I know them.

Some of the nicest folks I've met in both parties are the Cherry siblings, Jim Barcia, Dick DeVos, Tim Walberg, and Jack Hoogendyk. I think DeVos would have won if he met most people one on one or in small groups and didn't have to go on TV. I couldn't vote for the Cherry's, but I can't say anything bad about them as people.

Schwarz is as bad in person as he is in the papers. I think he's going to have a hard time in the primary if Haskell gains any traction whatsoever.

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
NY-27 news
The Buffalo News is reporting that the Bellavia campaign is "in a thicket on finances," namely, the FEC wants to know how is the campaign paying its bills.  

Representative on Congress: Rep. Wagner, MO

Virgil Goode
Could Virgil play the Nader role in Virginia by taken 1%-2% of the vote from Romney and cost us those EV votes?  If he has turned libertarian-leaning, he could get some of the student vote, especially since he use to represent Charlottesville.

33, R, IN-09

Not libertarian
He draws from the paleocon side of the Paul coalition. More of the homeschooler types who are skeptical of standard libertarian foreign policy but are huge on the Constitution.

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04

[ Parent ]
They thought the same thing about Bob Barr in 2008
He polled a pathetic 0.73% in Georgia. I expect Gooooooode to do the same.  

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
VA 2012
I agree that Barr wasn't a factor in GA, but even 0.5% could be meaningful in VA in 2012.  Nader's 1.6% was very meaningful in Florida in 2000.

33, R, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Goode will get the 1/2 percent
That ordinarily votes for a right-wing 3rd party candidate, and family + friends from the 5th District. That may be the margin of victory in Virginia, but he won't do more harm than the usual Constitution/AIP/Libertarian Presdiential nominee does. Nader had more of a media presence, and like Barr, I don't think Goode and his cash strapped candidacy will get much attention from the left-wing news corps.

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
IL-13; former Miss America is interested
http://capitolfax.com/2012/04/...

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

Could be interesting, but how likely is she to win?
It seems like there are candidates who've got more intra-party support lined up already. I do think someone like Harold--who's not a party insider/staffer, would probably have a better chance of holding the seat in future cycles than someone seen as an insider picked by party insiders. Of course, we also don't know anything about her caliber as a candidate, or that of anyone else interested here, so it's a crap-shoot no matter who gets picked.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.

[ Parent ]
She is an insider.
She was part of Patick O'Malley's 2010 Gov primary campaign and was a delegate to the 2004 Republican National Convention.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
"insider"
Being part of the 2002 Patrick O'Malley campaign makes her the opposite of an insider.

My first choice for IL-13 would be State Rep. Dan Brady of Bloomington, but Harold would be just as great.


[ Parent ]
Relative term.
Compared to a couple of former congressional chiefs of staff, one of whom was recruited specifically by the guy who just left the seat after winning a primary, she's definitely not a party insider. I get the sense that Jerry Clark may have some unique trouble holding the seat in 2014, which Harold, among others, wouldn't.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.

[ Parent ]
By the way...
She is really good looking and apparently has some Native American and African American in her from her mother's side. It would be crazy to go from zero black women in the GOP's history in congress, to having two. Plus, she would knock Noem down a peg for the unofficial title of hottest in congress.

http://www.missamerica.org/our...

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


[ Parent ]
They are moving to a cheaper place
But this is still really bad news for them. They are broke, deep in debt, homeless (for now) and at eachothers throats.  

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Mitt has no core! Yes, he does! No, he doesn't!
http://dyn.politico.com/prints...

The Obama campaign wants to remind you that Mitt has no core convictions but also has the core convictions of right wing extremism.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Simple Arguement
Mitt has bounced around, but has moved to the right on nearly every issue and is now pretty much in step with the Conservative wing of the party on virtually every issue.  Not a hard one to switch to.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
You're saying he has a core
The message is:

His convictions are hard right and that's how he'll govern.

I don't think the far right extremist message will work. It's never worked for Democrats in the past. It hasn't worked for Democrats since 1964. What could work is that his policies are the same as Bush's. Granted, none of Bush's policies contributed to the fiscal meltdown, but people think they did.

Only 18% of the Bush tax cuts went to the top 1%. 82% went to the rest of us. That's why so many people don't pay taxes. Obama implies, but doesn't say, that Bush only gave tax cuts to the rich.

I read on a comment on a friend's Facebook page today that the middle class pays higher tax rates than the rich. So she didn't understand how the top 1% could be paying 40% of all the taxes. Of course, Obama doesn't explicitly say that either, but when some people listen to him on the 'Buffet rule' that's what they hear.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Thoughts
Huntsman: Yeah, this guy went off the deep-end somewhere, kick him out of the party please.
Daniels: That's unfortunate.
TX-SEN: To date, I've only seen Cruz ads, so Leppert needs to bombard the large media markets (where most of his support would be) if he wants to make the runoff.
TX-21: Yep, I told many of my friends that reddit's efforts to defeat Smith with a Democrat were going to be fruitless, as would any efforts to primary him.
O'Malley: Typical MD Democrat, gerrymander, then deny that you gerrymandered to benefit your party; at least Texas Republicans are honest about this kind of thing.
AZ-House: LOL, Mathis (I).

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

Perry
Has come out and said he wanted to sign off on a bill that purposefully minimized democratic representation and maximized Republican gains?

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
And that is news?
That is standard Operating procedure for every party that has ever control redistricting.  I guess your next report will be  that Perry thinks water is wet.

Okay I forgot some people really think OMalley believes his redistricting plans randomly benefited the Ds.  


[ Parent ]
Sorry
It was a question not a statement.

I can't imagine anyone actually believes the second one.

My point was more that people claim others are more "open and honest" about redistricting.  As far as I've read I've never seen a Governor do that.  

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
Let say sorry as well
as surely I should have know better!!!  Still I think Quinn's comments on IL map (its a fair map) and OMalley's comments are disillusional.  

I think even Perry and GOP would not suggest that their map was  fair or to the GOP advantage. That being said if any GOP gov or GOP leader tries to con the folks into believing that redistricting is not partisan please post her.

 


[ Parent ]
Abbott did
Several of the court filings basically say that.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Yep
He did, and the lege wasn't exactly acting as if they had any other intentions. Hence the term "Texas Republicans" instead of "Rick Perry."

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
Only in Pennsylvania...
Kane says some of the same things Murphy does about Corbett. But she is a bit more measured in her criticism. Murphy is making an issue of the fact Kane donated $500 to Corbett when he was running for re-election as attorney general in 2008. That overlooks the tens of thousands of dollars she has donated to Democrats, Kane says.

It also overlooks Murphy's statement in his book that he voted for George Bush in 2000, her campaign spokesman said.

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/...

28, Republican, PA-6


Voter ID
A little personal update.  I am taking a leading role in on a local bar association committee to educate the public on the voter ID law.  

28, Republican, PA-6

PA Voter ID
Ryan I believe the law offers a free Voter ID, but what if the voter does not have their Birth Certificate to get the ID?  Is there anything in place so they can get a free Birth Certificate in the case they don't have it?  

Sometimes people lose them, but I know in my case my parents lost it so I had to get it replaced and I had to pay for it.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
Heh,
I don't think the Gov will let you get one for free. I had to pay for mine as well when I went to get my drivers license. Good way to get money out of people.  

22, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Matt 6:25-34    

[ Parent ]
But if you made an "affidavit of indigence"
or something similar to that, I'd bet your birth-state would provide one free of charge.

Age 43. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.

[ Parent ]
Nope
There is a $10 fee, but apparently some private organizations are helping people with the filing fee.  It sounds like we might be at the bar association.  

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Drivers Licenses
Yes.  It is free to get a drivers license, but a birth certificate is not free.  Even if the state offered free birth certificates its not plausible to give everyone a free birth certificate as other states could still charge.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Would the PA law run into constitutional problems?
Wondering whether the PA law would run into constitutional problems on the equal-protection issue.  People with drivers' licenses can vote even though they never presented a birth certificate to get the license.

People without drivers' licences who want a photo ID have to present a birth certificate (plus some other stuff).

Some lawyer out there: would this differential raise equal-protection questions, not to the requirement for photo ID itself, but for the extra burden on people without drivers' licenses?


[ Parent ]
In regards to the secure state ID portion
When it was implemented in Missouri a few years back, what happened was that everyone the next time their license is renewed needed to present it, and not just those getting the license for the very first time.
Licenses are good for six years here (possibly shorter for those under 21), so it amounted to a six year phase in.

Also, a US Passport (even if expired) is also acceptable to get the secure state id.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
KY-4; Webb-Edgington endorsed by Senator Bunning and Rep. Davis!
http://aleciaforcongress.com/2...

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

Davis was already expected
He was supposedly at a fundraiser for Webb-Edgington supposedly when the Massie ad with him in it when h found out about it.

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04

[ Parent ]
Bunning represented CD4
and its his home area.  In a multi candidate field with no runoff this is a big deal.  

[ Parent ]
Bill Kristol: Romney/Ryan ticket will prevail, 53 to 46 percent
http://www.weeklystandard.com/...

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

That would be 1988-esque
Not impossible if Obama runs the sort of campaign he has for the last ten days, but probably at the upper end of possibility given demographic changes(ie. I think Dukakis would have done better today than he did then, at least in the electoral college).

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
This Assumes...
...that voters actually want someone who's going to be honest about entitlement reforms/cuts. I don't assume there are actually as many as Kristol thinks there are.

If given a choice between actually doing something about the debt, and no cuts in entitlements, I suspect most voters will go with the latter, and vote Obama.

But it's important for Ryan to be on the ticket, so he can make the case for them down the line...  


[ Parent ]
The Wildrose Party may win a majority in Alberta
There are elections going on in Alberta today where a new conservative party could replace the Progressive Conservatives... http://news.nationalpost.com/2...

They will likely do better than a majority
Probably at least 2/3rds. The PCs gerrymandered the province to benefit rural Alberta, a map that is now backfiring massively on them.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Yep
This might be the biggest dummymander of all time rivalling on the 1990s Tory dummymander.  It was dumb from the start.  They essentially wanted totally PC dominance of the province while a fair map would have still given 2/3 majorities.  Without the gerrymander, I think a minority legislature would be more likely.  That would be a weird situation as Wildrose might have been courting the NDP and Liberals to topple the PC machine.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Not really
If you follow the polls, it's either a minority (less likely) or a narrow majority. Read the 308 website. It's awesome.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
308
Uses uniform swing, which is good in close elections but useless when a new party, which did not even run candidates in many seats last time shoots to first place.

The Liberals are losing 65% of their vote from 2012. The Tories are losing 40%. Much of the Liberal vote is going Tory. Much of the Tory vote to Wildrose.

Uniform Swing is not a good measure here. A tie in the popular vote on these maps might well still give Wildrose a Majority. A 7+ win would be a landslide. A ten point win might well have the Tories in single digits.

(Note) I used to do some work with election projections, and I remember the efforts in the 2010 British election to come up with an alternative to uniform swing. I suggested jokingly just taking UNS and adding 20 seats to the Tory total(as happened in 2005). ironically if 19 had been added it would have been accurate.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
308 is absolutely terrible.
I kicked their ass in the 2011 elections.

[ Parent ]
UNS
Basically involves entering numbers into an Excel Spreadsheet and posting the results.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Yep
You nuked them.  I got substantially closer than them with raw guessing as well based on a seat by seat breakdown.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Wildrose
I am guessing Wildrose gets 40% of the vote and 63 out of 87 seats.  The PCs get 19. NDP at 4 and Liberals at 1.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Any potential for Wildrose . . .
to expand its appeal beyond Alberta to the prairie provinces and/or non-Vancover British Columbia?

[ Parent ]
Maybe Saskatchewan and Manitoba
They are conservative provinces like Alberta but I don't know enough about Canadian politics to say Wildrose could branch out. If I had to guess I would say they are more like the Bloc Québécois and centered around a providence.

[ Parent ]
Couple things
It's Provence, not Providence.

Two, The Bloc is 100% irrelevant at this point, but they were essentially communists when they mattered. I don't think you could get further from Wildrose in that sense.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


[ Parent ]
The Bloc
Was founded by a former PC Cabinet Minister, but the left was ascendant from the mid 1990s onwards when Lucien Bouchard left/was forced out.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
That wasn't my point
The Bloc never went outside Quebec, Wildrose won't go beyond Alberta. In my opinion.

[ Parent ]
Quebec is a lot different culturally from its neighbors
than Alberta though; so I could see Wildrose spreading like wild fire to the rest of the Canadian plains.


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Awesome


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Remember
When the demographic change was permanent and Rs are doomed?
Pew reports that immigration from Mexico had stopped completely and may have reversed itself.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/47...

25, Male, R, NY-10

If this holds
Cali will lose a seat in '20 & TX will gain probably only 2 seats.  

[ Parent ]
I've Only Been Predicting The First One...
...since I started here, and I've been poo-pooed on more than one occasion!  ;)  

[ Parent ]
From estimates
Texas seems to be on track for another decade of 20% growth (read: a population of 30 Million by 2020), so I say we still gain three or four seats. It's just that this time, most (or all) of those new seats will go Republican.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
Yep
This is why I always smirk reading sites like DKE where the built in assumption is that there will continue to be exponential immigrant growth in states like NV, CO, VA and IL.

Well what happens if that trend stops, as I believe it has since 2008?!

What happens if the Mexican economy starts booming?!

Etc.

These are the perils of relying on "demographic destiny" rather than crafting a policy platform that appeals to a majority of your current citizenry! (And I'm looking at you, Progressives!!...)  


[ Parent ]
Mostly agree
But it's indisputable that birth rates for Hispanics are higher than for other demographic groups. So Hispanics will continue to grow as a proportion of the population, but not as quickly as they have for the past decade or two. And I don't really see significant Mexican emigration from the U.S. as particularly likely.

But it's not at all clear that a) Hispanic voter turnout will improve, or b) that they're a locked-in Democratic constituency.

So your point that Democrats cannot continue to rely on "demographic destiny" is absolutely right.

MA-08  


[ Parent ]
Yeah, demographic destiny is pretty much always a stupid argument...
As most demographic groups are moving targets. If you told a Democrat circa 1900 that African-Americans would be a reliable Democratic voting block while the concept of the Irish vote would have totally desolved, he'd've probably told you to get your head examined. The idea that there's this magic, mythical "Latino vote" that's going to be monolythically Democratic forever is sort of ahistorical.
This does not, by the way, take us off the hook for courting Hispanic voters more vigorously, but it will hopefully calm down people who think unchecked mass-immigration from a country with falling birth rates and increasing prosperity is some sort of new normal.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.

[ Parent ]
Why Do We Need To "Court" Anybody?!
Let's just stick to our economic and social policy messages, let the Dems stick to theirs, and see which demographic groups end up where.  

[ Parent ]
Well,
Dems already have perception on there side. We have to change that perception (more Hispanic officeholders and proxies).

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
+1


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
This was demographically inevitable.
Mexico's had declining birth rates for a while now, and that trend looks likely to continue. If--and it's a decently big if--Mexico can eliminate the cartels, probably with help from us, and continue to experience decent economic growth, I anticipate immigration from Mexico will be more of a trickle than a flood in a couple decades. In fact, given our own demographic outlook, I think we could be facing the question of how to attract new immigrants to the country within twenty years, not worrying about how we keep people from coming in illegally.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.

[ Parent ]
Mexico has always had the potential to be rich
It has a GDP per capita on par with Portugal, good land, a lot of oil, and the core of a well-educated population. Its problem has always been good government, or the lack thereof. Those ifs you mentioned are big, but if they were to come true, Mexico on paper has the potential to be a major world power.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Agree
In 20 years I could see Canada and Mexico becoming very strong competitors to us in terms of immigrants.  Canada is already competing with us in this regard.

Also, we have the prospect of emmigration to Mexico of retirees if the situation there improves.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
Lost Majority
I'm reading Sean Trende's book and he makes a lot of good points that are reflected here. He critiques the "permanent Democratic majority" theory.

Those that have that theory predict continued dramatic growth among Hispanic. Democratic hold on Hispanics is unknown as the population becomes more second, third, and fourth generation and is more successful fiscally. It's ironic that if Democrats are able to deliver on their promise of prosperity for the middle class, they'll lose some of those voters, but if they remain poor, they're more likely to remain Democratic.

There's the big problem that Hispanic citizens vote in alarmingly low numbers.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
NC-Gov: Etheridge hits the air
it's about what everything else in his campaign has been about -- restoring education funding:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

Off topic, but I swear you would not believe the day I'm having right now... the computer died, for one... I'm typing this from some ancient 10 yo piece of junk I can't believe still works, let alone that I got it hooked up to the internet.

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


Obama competitive in Arizona?
http://www.tucsonsentinel.com/...

This poll thinks so.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Undecideds?
Are they overwhelmingly Republican?

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Party ID
No. Roughly 10% of Republicans and 10% of Democrats are undecided. They use a sample of 36%R/30%D, which is a smaller margin than Arizona had in either 2008 or 2006. So once again we learn this is going to be a better year for Democrats than 2008. If that's the case, Obama easily takes Arizona.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Romney +11
according to Rasmussen a month ago. Obama is stuck at 40 and this will not be close.

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!


[ Parent ]
Agree
It appears based off previous polling Obama has hit his ceiling and has nowhere else to go.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Yeah, I actually think Arizona is Likely R
It only flips if Obama's scoring a supremely improbable double-digit margin in the popular vote.

In reality, I think Romney wins Arizona 55-44.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
Obama won't contest Arizona
If he wins it, its because he is willing in a landslide nationally, much like Indiana in 08

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Clearly this poll predicts an Obama landslide
So you're all good.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
He should be competitive
If you buy that he has a lead right now, being at R+4 would make Arizona competitive...

Libertarian-R New MA-5.  

[ Parent ]
Obama forfeited Arizona
when he decided to sue the state over SB 1070.  

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!


[ Parent ]
Maybe
Prop 187 passed by almost 20 pts and didn't save the Republicans in California.

Libertarian-R New MA-5.  

[ Parent ]
SB 1070 support at 68-27
http://dailycaller.com/2012/04...

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!


[ Parent ]
John Boehner is a negative nelly
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

I would say that there is a two-in-three chance that we win control of the House again, but there's a one-in-three chance that we could lose.

Clearly Boehner knows what he's saying and he's saying this so that Republicans don't think it's in the bag. It's tougher to motivate people when you're in the majority, especially one where they are so far ahead they can't lose it.

The problem with Boehner's statement is that there were roughly 230 districts where Obama got 53.5% or less before redistricting and there are now 242. Before redistricting I would've said that if Obama won there'd be around a 60% chance Democrats would take the House. Even if Obama wins, I'd put Democratic chances at no more than 15%.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


McCain won districts
How many districts were won by John McCain?

From the old IL-10/new IL-09, living in PA-07
The GOP's roadmap to restored relevance: more Steve Litzows and fewer Steve Kings


[ Parent ]
199
Not all held currently by Republicans, of course

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
The effect on Rush's ratings
After the Sandra "Boss and Government pay for my sex toys" Fluke controversy?
Zilch

http://www.nydailynews.com/ent...

25, Male, R, NY-10


New WMUR/UNH poll of New Hampshire: Obama +9
Remember, they are using a likely voter screen too.

Obama 51%
Romney 42%

Obama approval is at 50/47.

Everybody says this is supposed to be a Likely Romney state, but Romney's approval is 36/51.

http://www.unh.edu/survey-cent...


Who is this everybody? I have not seen him here
at this website.  I hear about alot.

I am crazy about polling over two or so weeks LV screen or not.  

Basically one college poll in NH in April has Romney +2 and another one has him 9 points behind.  

NH was close to Obama national numbers in 2008 and however national polls have Obama +9 ahead now?

Can you say NH outlier?


[ Parent ]
Dartmouth is not a wonderful pollster
The Romney vs Obama head to heads were Question 32 (!)

[ Parent ]
The poll is +7 D in partisan ID.


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Oh remember
You forgot our liberal friends think 2012 will be 2012 on steroids.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Actually the poll finds a majority of registered
Independents. It finds the Independents are leaning left, thus creating the D+7 Moshe is talking.  

[ Parent ]
I know no one thinks it matters what the party ID numbers are
But 33% of NH Voters are Registered Republicans.
This poll has them at 23%.

The Democrats are at 28% on the books, and in the poll.  

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
NY-SD-27 court update
Where can I go to see Alberta coverage?


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

I think DKE will have a liveblog.


[ Parent ]
Beat me to it
nt.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
CBC is usually good
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Mods
How about an open thread?  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
So shall it be written
So shall it be done!

[ Parent ]
MN-legislature
http://www.minnpost.com/data/2...

The Minnesota Post puts together a neat perspective/map for November.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


Gingrich may drop out after tomorrow
http://politicalwire.com/archi...

Apparently, it's Delaware or bust.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


Looking for a way out
He only in the race in name only now.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
DE
I'm actually kinda nervous. The state chair, the chairmen of all 3 county parties, and the National Committeewoman are all for Gingrich. The New Castle Chairman, State Chairman, and National Committeewoman all switched from Romney to Newt this week. I'm worried we will see low turnout because everyone thinks Romneys got it.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Relax
Unelectable candidates running to the right of the presumptive nominee never win low-turnout GOP primaries in Delaware. Oh, wait....

[ Parent ]
Why would someone switch from Romney to Newt now?


[ Parent ]
No clue
Maybe because Newt has spent so much time there. In the case of Committeewoman Rakestraw, she is being opposed by a conservative challenger to keep her job, so that may be why. But the Kent County GOP Chair also switched from Romney to Newt this week.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
In all fairness, Romney does have Christine O'Donnell
So if he wins all of the Mike Castle 2010 vote, which he most certainly should, he'd only need a modest sliver of the O'Donnell vote to carry the day. I would think he prevails around 55-30-15 over Gingrich and Paul here.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
NY-24: GOP Internal Has Buerkle up
She's up 42-38, but, being an internal, Maffei is probably up a point or two.

http://atr.rollcall.com/new-yo...

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


My guess is that she's . . .
probably behind something like 37-43.  Assuming that the undecideds break about two to one against the incumbent (Buerkle), she would lose by about 44-55.  (Of course, since they are both recent incumbents and the district is new, Maffei is much less likely to sweep up so many  undecideds.)


[ Parent ]
That's a Myth
It's a myth that undecideds always break against the incumbent - how they break really depends on the national mood and local factors.

I would absolutely not assume that undecideds will necessarily break 2-to-1 against Buerkle - in the end, they could just as easily break for the incumbent (her!).  


[ Parent ]
Harry Reid never got 50% in a poll
But did get it at the ballot box.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Weaksauce
Never a good sign when incumbents are at 42% in their own internals, although Maffei is a just as much a known commodity as she is so it's less bad than it looks. Nice to see her ahead at least.

[ Parent ]
McCain courting Bloomberg to support Romney
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/n...

Barring a complete Obama implosion, I suspect Bloomberg stays neutral in this.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


On the way to the polls
Should I vote for Romney, protest vote for Santorum, or write in Christie?
I still think that Mitt is a bad nominee.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

Maybe
I should write in Red Racing Horses.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Voter number 1
Voted for Mitt.
I didn't even see a write-in box.

At least they merged ED tables. They don't have 50 people working, only 25...

25, Male, R, NY-10


[ Parent ]
The good side
 You might think he's a bad candidate, but he's what we have. Wouldn't it be better if he proves you wrong and wins? So give Mitt your support. Just think about the good things you like about Mitt. Then compare him to the President.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
voted Romney
NT.  

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
CA's state treasure Lockyer
Is thoroughly corrupt, bought drugs for his wife.
http://www.mercurynews.com/opi...

25, Male, R, NY-10

Not surprised
Goes with the territory in a 1-party state

Age 43. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.

[ Parent ]
Only Democrat I didn't vote for in 2010


[ Parent ]
Yet the best 2010 performer
Reminds me of when I went to the Royce campaign and walked by Mimi Walters and thought "There goes the worst performing R in 2010."  

20-Cubano, R, CA-38
The commenter formerly known as TheCallofDuty


[ Parent ]
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