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Morning Political Roundup for April 24th, 2012

by: Daniel Surman

Tue Apr 24, 2012 at 08:53:11 AM EDT


Welcome back to the roundup! Today promises to be a busy day with a variety of primaries tonight.

President- Primary

Gingrich: Apparently Gingrich may drop out if he does not win Delaware tonight, which he has aggressively courted and won many endorsements in. "I think we need to take a deep look at what we are doing," he said.

Alaska: Paul supporters are crying foul on procedural issues in Alaska, where they claim the state chair is selectively placing fees on Paul delegates. Alaska GOP Chairman Rudy Ruedrich, for his part, says nobody in particular is being targeted by the rules. Both sides claim the other is disorganized and ineffective.

Iowa: "At least half" of the eight-member nominating committee for the state GOP convention in Iowa are Paul supporters, meaning the Texas congressman's supporters will have an outsized influence in selecting who goes to Tampa as a national delegate. Paul needs to have a plurality in five states to enter his name for nomination, so expect his campaign to lean hard on the process in Iowa.

President- General

Crist: Turncoat and former Florida Governor Charlie Crist's law firm recently gave $50,000 to Obama's Super PAC. It should be noted John Morgan, of the firm Morgan & Morgan, is an active Democratic donor.

Veepstakes

Rubio: John Dickerson argues Marco Rubio is not experienced enough for a national ticket.

Bush: Marco Rubio, who recently ceased commenting on his own Vice Presidential prospects, did say former Florida Governor Jeb Bush would make a 'fantastic Vice President." Bush recently said that even though he would consider an offer, he simply would not be the Vice Presidential nominee.

Senate

California: A local look at the obvious: Senator Feinstein (D) is a shoe-in for re-election. Feinstein has no prominent opposition running against her in the fall.

Indiana: Indiana has its own primaries in two weeks. Brian Howey takes a close look at Treasurer Richard Mourdock's campaign manager, Jim Holden.

Pennsylvania: What happened to the campaign of Steven Welch after he won the endorsement of the state party? If Welch does not walk away with this tonight, Pennsylvania Governor Tom Corbett will have some egg on his face. Now the contest shifts to businessman Tom Smith, with the money and the edge in internal polling, and former State Rep. Sam Rohrer, who upped his fundraising a bit and has an intensely loyal following that is important in what has been a surprisingly low-profile race.

New Mexico: Rep. Martin Heinrich (D) is up with a $72k positive ad airing statewide and in El Paso, TX this week.

House

HI-02: Tulsi Gabbard wins the backing of the Sierra Club in her Democratic primary with Mufi Hannemann for this Democratic open seat.

UT-04: Roll Call looks at Mia Love, who has now been christened a rising star by GOP leadership after winning her endorsement at the state convention with over 70% of the vote. The Matheson campaign, for its part, previewed attacks on Love, saying she has "taken some positions that are way out there."

FL-25: Seriously, why do we not have a serious primary challenger here? Rep. David Rivera may not have broken the law, but he spent eight years in the legislature living off of campaign accounts. The Miami Herald breaks down how he did it.

PA-12/PA-17/PA-18: Yes, we have a bunch of fun primaries tonight in Pennsylvania. We will be liveblogging them along with the presidential primaries tonight.

PA-12: With labor forces behind Rep. Mark Critz, the primary showdown between him and Rep. Jason Altmire is something of a test of labor's power here.

IL-13: The GOP race to succeed Rep. Tim Johnson is getting crowded. Among those already in are State Rep. Dan Brady, State Rep. Adam Brown, State Senator Sam McCann, State Senator Kyle McCarter, former State Rep. Mike Tate, Johnson Chief of Staff Jeffrey Clarke, and former Shimkus aide Rodney Davis. Also speculated to get in is 2003 Miss America Erika Harold, who is active in party politics.

Miscellaneous

Minnesota GOP: The Republican Party of Minnesota was recently served eviction papers for not paying the full rent for quite some time, but the party will not be immediately thrown on the street. Negotiations continue  on the issue. An eviction hearing is scheduled for May 1st. There are rumors the party will be moving its offices to Bloomington at some point, so we'll see if there is any substance to them.

Pennsylvania: Can't keep track of the races in Pennsylvania? The Philadelphia Inquirer gives the rundown.

Crossroads: Shocker: A majority of Crossroads' (disclosed) money comes from three Texas super-donors: Bob Perry, Harold Simmons, and Robert Rowling. Karl Rove built his career in Texas on his strong relationship with donors, who would often choose to support campaigns based on Rove's support of them.
Daniel Surman :: Morning Political Roundup for April 24th, 2012
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Morning Political Roundup for April 24th, 2012 | 57 comments
PPP tweets Obama up 5 in their national poll this week.
49-44.  

21, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Rom 8:38-39    
DWS agrees with John Boehner
Debbie Wasserman Schultz agrees with the Speaker. Boehner said it because he thinks donors aren't motivated. She agrees with him for the same reason. If Democrats have no chance to win the House neither donor base will contribute. The Senate and Presidential races will suck up money.

I can tell you that Nancy Pelosi would never have suggested that there was a possibility that we would lose.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/s...

Considering that the Democrats did lose the House, she's saying Nancy Pelosi is delusional, in denial, or just a liar. I'd like it if a reporter asked, "If Pelosi wouldn't admit that, why should we even ask her?"

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Iowa
The nominating committee can be overruled on the floor.

(That happened here in MO in numerous county & township caucuses last month.)

The number of Paul delegates from the county conventions going to the state & district conventions vs total number of delegates there needs compared against.


41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

By what vote?
If I am up on my parliamentary procedure, I imagine it would take a majority on the floor before the rules are adopted and 2/3rds thereafter? I don't think the non-Paul forces will have 2/3rds at the state convention, but if they only need a majority that is a different story. I imagine the Paul forces will try to deal by getting just their plurality, although here in Minnesota that has not been the case.  

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04
[ Parent ]
order would normally be
1. Temp chair welcomes people
2. Call for nominations for a permenant chair from the floor
3. The committee's idea will probably be first, but all others taken.
4. Nomination closes; usually short speeches by candidates, and a vote. Plurality is sufficent
5. Secretary is similar; parlementarian is appointed by permenant chair
6. Rules are majority vote and would be at this point. Note that there is likely to be a rule that proposed rules changes must have been made available in advance
7. At this point floor opens to nominations; can be by slate or as individual depending upon rules. Chairmen of the nomination committee would naturally nominate and recommend their choices, but anyone from the floor can add nominate competing choices.
8. After nominations close, speeches and the vote.

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.
[ Parent ]
basically the only thing the nomination committee controls
is the temporary chair.

I'm sure they'll suggest permanent chair, secretary, and delegates, but they'll be competing against floor nominations.

In my own caucus last month, the nomination's commitees result was:

Permanent chair : came in 3rd place on the floor

Secretary: N/A [It appears after their defeat for chair they didn't bother to nominate]

Delegates: Here they won. But mostly because the group coming in second for chair pulled their planned slate and endorsed the committee's before the vote.



41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
AndyRoo's Boyfriend
Yesterday evening, I was writing a paper on my laptop at the B6 gate at LaGuaradia airport. I wrote for a good 20 minutes straight and decided to go get a bottle of HonesTea from the Hudson News store. Right as I looked up AndyRoo's boyfriend walked by. I got really excited and jumped up and asked him if he had any time for a picture, so we walked and talked and when we got to his gate, I got a picture with him.

For those of you who don't get the joke, AndyRoo jokingly referred to Rudy Giuliani as his "boyfriend" because of how much he wanted him to run for office. :)

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.

Very Cool
Rudy really blew it in 2010, he should have run for something.

R, MA-3
[ Parent ]
CA-Treas
Re-posting Moshe's link that got buried yesterday - Bill Lockyer bought illegal drugs for his wife. http://www.mercurynews.com/opi...

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
In Cali., This Will Likely Net Him Votes (nt)

[ Parent ]
There's nothing left for to run for
He's had every job

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
Still 4 more to go
Comptroller, SoS, Ins. Comm, and LG. He can keep it up for another 32 years.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
UT-04
Matheson said that he was a sixth-generation Utahn in that article. Dog whistle? I don't mean racially, but calling attention to the fatc that Love's roots in Utah are relatively new.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
Minor Utah trivia
as Hatch was actually born in Pittsburg.  His parents were from Utah and he did return there for college.  Hatch went to law school back in PA and actually worked in a Union shop as a plasterer.  Hatch returned to Utah in the early 1970s and was elected senator in 1976.  He was a resident of the state for 7-8 years at the most before he became US senator.  Alot of people move in and out then back and forth to Utah due to the Church.  I do not think it will hurt Mia Love that she is a 7th generation Utah resident.

I might add I was always amused that the very wealthy Patrician Ted Kennedy always stood up for Unions.  While the blue collar union man Orrin Hatch stood for working people when they alternated as chair of the senate labor committee.  

[ Parent ]
Hatch
In his book Orrin Hatch details the irony of him and Kennedy.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
Democrats will highlight some of her votes on the city council
You wait. When they find out she voted to put a traffic light at 3rd and Main, she's in trouble.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
There isn't a single Great Plains campaign out there
that does not highlight their multi-generational roots if they can. That stuff is very important out there..to campaigns. I don't know how much attention voters really pay to it, but every campaign on both sides usually makes it a fairly high-profile thing. This goes for UT, MT, WY, the Dakotas...

It's a way to single out people who were part of the California wave that the old residents there so despise.

[ Parent ]
UT (and NV)
Their populations have increased quickly though (unlike the others you mentioned, still only 1 At-Large seat).  It gets to the point where you are turning more people off than you are courting.  
[ Parent ]
Yeah, I think I agree.
I was just pointing out that this talking point by Matheson is part of the standard western playbook for both parties.  
[ Parent ]
Utah isn't in the Great Plains
It's in the Great Basin.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
agreed
the Foothills of the Rockies are the western border of the Great Plains

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.
[ Parent ]
It's not usually a big issue in Nebraska
other than Bob Kerrey this year, and that's a different situation because it has nothing to do with his roots, just where he's lived the last 10 years. You might think it would be a bigger issue in Nebraska because we have a very strong state identity, but it hasn't been. For instance, Jeff Fortenberry is from Louisiana and never lived in Nebraska until after college, but that fact was never brought up by any of his opponents in any of his campaigns. Adrian Smith could have made a bigger deal of Scott Kleeb's shallow roots in the state in their race back in 2006, but the only time he really mentioned it was at debates and rallies when he would contrast the fact that he went to the University of Nebraska while contrasting that with the fact that Kleeb went to the University of Colorado(which would prompt a chorus of boos since we were still in the Big 12 at the time and they were one of our main rivals).

41, R, NE-1.
[ Parent ]
That goes for most rural areas
It's probably more pronounced out west because California is a favorite whipping boy, and has some strength in parts of the South away from the metro areas because of damnyankees, and in parts of the Midwest, especially Michigan.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  
[ Parent ]
I thought the same thing when I read it

[ Parent ]
So did I


24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Sheldon Adelson zeroes in on Senate race
http://www.politico.com/blogs/...



R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Good.
NV-Sen hasn't been getting much attention, so it's good to know someone on our side will be pulling out all stops for Heller, or in Adelson's case, I guess not Burkeley.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.
[ Parent ]
On-call has an interesting nugget on this:
"
In 1998, Adelson spent heavily against Berkley in her first congressional run. During the campaign, memos and an audio tape also emerged in which Berkley advised Adelson to give favors to judges and county commissioners in return for favorable treatment."

Given her current ethics troubles, I could see Adelson making a real narrative out of this.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.

[ Parent ]
NRCC Announces Fourth Round of Patriot Program Members
http://nrcc.org/default.asp?id...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
PA primary upsets
http://www.rockthecapital.com/...

I don't disagree with this list except I expect Argall to hang on.

27, Republican, PA-6

What's the PA weather like?
Did it snow in western PA?  Will the Amish be able to get to vote in PA4?  I would think low turnout in Eastern PA helps Holden?  
[ Parent ]
Weather
There was snow in western Pennsylvania.  Johnstown got a good storm, but it appears to be having little impact as the mass power outages predicted seem to have been avoided.

Weather looks fine in PA-4 and PA-17.  The Amish don't vote much, but bad weather does not keep them inside.  They were out doing the pretty bad storms we got Sunday.

27, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
PA-Legislature: DeWeese resigns at noon
http://www.observer-reporter.c...

The law is not clear if a special election will be called before November or not.  DeWeese remains on the ballot for the Novermber election as the only Democrat running.

27, Republican, PA-6

Genocide Remembrance Day
I know this isn't exactly the place for this, but I figured I'd say that I'm spending a good part of today calling the offices of every member of the IL Congressional Delegation and Congressmen who had previously opposed recognition in support of federal recognition of the Armenian Genocide.

I think it's a good cause and it's something (along with many other things) I take into account (albeit not with much weight compared to things like fiscal policy stances) when I'm deciding whom to support in a primary. I hope some of the DKE community will consider calling their Congressman. . . it's really an issue I believe both parties should agree on. :)

I hope I didn't step on any toes by posting this here and I yield the floor.

For those of you who have no idea what I'm talking about: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.

College kids
http://thehill.com/homenews/ca...

I have no doubt the President enjoys strong college support. Most of the undergrads who voted for him 4 years ago have graduated. So these undergrads never voted for him.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Nobody likes Barack as much any more
He got his share of Catholics in 2008
http://thehill.com/blogs/healt...

He can count on less Jewish votes
http://www.thedailybeast.com/a...

Even college kids are less enamored with Obama
http://www.iop.harvard.edu/var...


R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

The question is do they go to Romney?
I think Romney has been doing the right things the past week, but he has a convention to get through, and other than some Catholics, there is nothing particularly appealing in his platform for any of those groups.

25 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally

[ Parent ]
What's appealing about Obama?
If you're saying Mitt Romney isn't pandering, "I'll give you low interest student loans," then okay, he's not offering anything. Mitt isn't offering me anything because I'm Jewish, although I really do like that he has a good relationship with Bibi and doesn't complain that "I have to deal with him every day."

All Mitt is offering is the ability to make my own decisions, with less restrictions. He's offering opportunity, not fairness. You might not believe what Mitt's offering will do what he says it'll do, but some people in these groups do.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
I wish obama pandered
On sutdent loans, instead he's moving the other way...

Libertarian-R New MA-5. Christie-Martinez 2016.
[ Parent ]
Catholics
Romney isn't going to try and pull the crap that Obama via Obamacare's sweeping regulatory powers pulled with contraception and the Church.  

R, MA-3
[ Parent ]
Even if some of them don't go to Romney,
Some might be disgusted and refrain from voting, robbing Obama of some votes anyway.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Kirk update and picture
http://www.suntimes.com/121030...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Romney favorability up
Romney was viewed unfavorably 46-47 in March, but he rebounded to 50-39 this month.

buried in a Gallup article
http://www.gallup.com/poll/154...

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!

Obama up 49-42
In their latest poll.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Romney favorability up
and President Obama gains? Doesn't seem consistent.

Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"
[ Parent ]
Much of the Gain
Seems to be with Republicans.  

25 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally

[ Parent ]
Eric Ulrich
to run for state senate.  We should pick up this seat, as it now has Far Rockaway and is more republican than the previous district.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

Republican Medical Doc from New York, NY

Waste of a good talent
I figured Ulrich didn't want to go to the dead-end of a Prize Patrol job, but yeah, he'll win the seat.

And 15 doesn't include Far Rockaway. Counterintuitively, Far Rockaway is the more urbanized/minority heavy part of the Peninsula. Rockaway Point is Turner's home, more suburban, and very conservative.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

[ Parent ]
And what political job . . . .
did you have in mind for Ulrich at this time?  Its not like he has a lot of other options.  

No winnable congressional seat is avialable and he can't win a statewide or citywide race.  

State Senate may be his best option, outside of some plum federal appointment (assuming Romney wins the election).  

[ Parent ]
Stay on the council until the next winnable Gov race
and then run for LG. He'd be a great complement to Astorino/Hanna/Wilson in '18 or '22.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
LOL!
That's not going to happen! Being a minority member on the NY City Council is a nice job but no real power. He can give out some member items and such but has ZERO say on anythign else. In Albany as a member of the razor thin GOP majority he can actually have power and do things. It's a good move for him politically. Besides there is no garuntee he gets relected to the city council next year after they redraw the lines. The Dems could stick Rockaway Point in the minority majority heavily Democrat district just like was done with the congressional lines.
[ Parent ]
Good move for Ulrich
It's a free run for him because he gets to keep his Council Seat (which isnt up until 2013)while running for State Senate. The end result here could be for Ulrich & St Senator Joe Addabbo (D) to just switch jobs. If Ulrich wins I'm sure Addabbo will try to get his old (and Ulrich's current) City Council seat back. That Council Seat could also be a landing spot for Bob Turner (if he wants to stay in elected office and doesnt mind taking a local office) if Turner isnt a US Senator next year.
Other effects of a Ulrich win could be on the Queens County GOP. Due to archane NY election laws a member of the NYC Council can not be a party country chairman but a member of the NYS Legislature or Congress can. So if Ulrich gets elected to the State Senate he can make a play to take over and become Chairman of the Queens County GOP and end the silly fued once and for all by winning it and crushing his enemies!
[ Parent ]
Daily PA Political Corruption Update: DeWeese gets 30-60 months
http://www.pennlive.com/midsta...

27, Republican, PA-6
That's not going to put a crimp in his re-election
He gets the nomination tonight and will remain on the ballot. He's not going to be able to serve.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
TX-Pres (PPP): Romney+7
I just wanted to shut the usual stuff down before it starts:

The Undecideds do not lean Republican.
The Party ID breakdown is better for Republicans than 2010, and more than 10 points better than 2008.
The electorate polled is whiter than 2010 and much whiter than 2008.

Morning Political Roundup for April 24th, 2012 | 57 comments
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Elections have consequences -- from the race for President to the race for one seat on a city council. The political economist Max Weber wrote that the state possesses a monopoly on the legitimate use of force. But in the United States, the state is divided into myriad federal, state, and local entities. And the elections to fill those entities are the products of the fascinating interactions between campaigns, party affiliations, voter turnout, and the media spotlight. Red Racing Horses analyzes those elections -- from a Republican-leaning perspective -- to keep a close eye on the process of electing officials, and to offer our perspective on the election-related issues of the day. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog.

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