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Red Racing Horses analyzes and discusses elections from a Republican-leaning perspective. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog. Please read our site Terms of Use.

~The RRH Moderators: BostonPatriot, Daniel Surman, GoBigRedState, Greyhound, James_Nola, Right Reformer, Ryan_in_SEPA, and Shamlet.

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RRH's 2014 General Election Preview Series:

Part 2 - Row Officers

Part 1 - Legislatures and Local Races

The Current RRH Race Ratings:




Row Officers

Q2 Fundraising

Afternoon Political Roundup for April 24th, 2012

by: Daniel Surman

Tue Apr 24, 2012 at 16:02:02 PM EDT

A variety of polls in this afternoon's roundup.

President- Primary

Texas: PPP- Romney 45% Gingrich 35% Paul 14%. Gingrich sees a bump from the Santorum withdrawal while Romney surges to dominance. Romney's favoribility has gone from a meh 44/44 in January to 66/23. In contrast, Paul has lopsided 37/48 favorables in his home state.

Pennsylvania: Over at Frontloading HQ Josh Putnam takes an informative look at the delegate allocation process in Pennsylvania. A quote: 

Like Illinois, Pennsylvania is a loophole primary: Voters will cast a ballot for a presidential candidate of their choice, but the vote of consequence is the direct vote(s) for delegates.  Unlike Illinois, the candidates to which the delegate candidates are aligned are not listed alongside those delegate candidates on the ballot. The result is that Pennsylvania Republican primary voters are essentially casting a blind vote. Now, what typically happens in these loophole primaries -- whether in Pennsylvania or Illinois -- is that the establishment candidate is able to garner the most support of known political quantities either statewide or within a district. Voters tend to gravitate toward those folks: someone they know in a political capacity versus someone they don't know....

If you were a casual voter who wanted to figure out who the delegates were for each of the candidates -- and perhaps that is a stretch (Who are those voters?) -- you would have a much easier time coming up with the Ron Paul list of delegates than the Mitt Romney list of delegates. That yields a competition that pits name recognition (Romney) against organization (Paul). Typically -- historically -- the two would overlap or the latter would be unnecessary in a late and less-than-competitive primary where a presumptive nominee has been identified and all or most other candidates have dropped out of the race. In this instance, though, with turnout looking light at best, we may have a fairly decent test case of name recognition against organization.

President- General

Texas: PPP- Romney 50% (49) Obama 43% (42)

New Hampshire: UNH Survey Center- Obama 51% (50) Romney 42% (40)

Arizona: Merrill / Morrison Institute- Romney 42% Obama 40%

National: PPP- Obama 49% (50) Romney 44% (44)

National: Gallup Tracking- Obama 49% (50) Romney 42% (44)


Iowa: Oh Chuck Grassley.

“We’re looking at something that is very, very serious when national security might not be protected properly,” Grassley told Radio Iowa. “Who knows who might be using prostitutes? The Russians are famous for that to get information out of us.”

There is a certain historical point in there, but it still sounds a bit goofy when you frame it as "Senator speculates Colombian prostitutes are Russian spies."


NY-24: McLaughlin & Associates, internal: Buerkle 42% Maffei 38%


NYC Mayor: Marist, Democratic primary- Christine Quinn 32% Bill Thompson 12% Bill de Blasio 10% John Liu 9% Scott Stringer 7% John Allon 1%

NYC Mayor: Douglas Schoen for NYDN, general-  Quinn 49% Kelly 36%; Thompson 43% Kelly 40%; Kelly 45% Stringer 39%; 42% Kelly 41% de Blasio

Texas, Lt. Governor: State Rep. David Simpson (R) is a lot like State Senator Tom Davis in South Carolina- a prominent Tea Party favorite who is known for taking difficult stands in the legislature. He is facing a primary from a Joe Straus loyalist he primaried in 2010 (one of only two Republican legislators to fall in primary challenges that year). Looking at who supports Simpson can show a type of jockeying for conservative support going on- one of his supporters is state Comptroller Susan Combs, who is building a massive warchest for a run at Lieutenant Governor in 2014.

Daniel Surman :: Afternoon Political Roundup for April 24th, 2012
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Pew Survey

The book uses a variety of data to argue that conservatives have a balanced set of moral intuitions, while liberals are focused on aiding victims, fairness and individual liberty. Conservatives recognize how liberals think because they share those intuitions, but liberals don't understand how conservatives think because they don't recognize conservatives' additional intuitions about loyalty, authority and sanctity,

Read more:

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

I could see that.
You'd have to be very clear on personal ID, though.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Liberals Are For "Individual Liberty"?
Since when?!

I can see the first two. I sure don't see this one.  

[ Parent ]
Different definition
Everyone is for individual liberty because everyone fits the definition of liberty to their belief. Liberals take a civil-rights, liberty-through-equality approach. Conservatives, of course, use the more traditional definition of liberty, through personal freedoms and responsibilities.

[ Parent ]
PPP New Mexico

They use a sample that's 50%D/32%R/18%I. That mirrors registration but not breakdown in any recent election. 2008 was D+16. 2006 was D+10. 2004 was D+7. If we use a D+10 Wilson would be leading by 1.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

This is nothing new with PPP

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
NM's getting bluer

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.

[ Parent ]
Meet John Oceguera, world-class hypocrite

Glenn Cook lays into him. It's unfair that people on Wall Street earn so much of their own money, but it is fair for taxpayers to pay a similar salary to Oceguera for not working.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

World-class 10-star hypocrite!
A bigger hypocrite than Buffett.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
he's doing what he's allowed to do under the law.  The law is wrong, IMO, but I'm not sure what's hypocrticical.

Is he running on "fiscal responsibility?"

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.

[ Parent ]
Who says that it's illegal?
It just looks very very bad.
Goes from a 15% chance to beat Heck to 5%.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
The hypocrisy comes from
a government worker who made $452,516 in single year complaining about private sector workers being "greedy" because they object to having half of their salary taken from them in taxes to pay his obscene compensation.
I mean $450k in one year, retirement at age 43 and a $100,000 a year check from the Govt for the rest of his life for NOT working? Who knew being a firefighter could be so lucrative? All you High School kids on RRH might want to save your college tuition money and apply for a job with the North Vegas Fire Department because apparently they are giving money away! This guys compensation package is a total disgrace.

[ Parent ]
Female Orthodox Jewish politicians
I can't think of any; am I overlooking any? (I ask because there's a big Orthodox presence in my town's politics, but I can't think of any Orthodox women who have run for office.)

American. | Democrat. | Econ & WGS major.

Female Orthodox don't run for office
More the types of stay-at-home moms, jobs without a high profile etc. It's a nature.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Maybe my information is outdated
But I thought that it was at least an orthodox view that the "ideal" wife would go out and earn a living so her husband could focus on Torah.

(Proverbs 31, for instance and some Talmudic passages I'm not remembering...)  

30, Left leaning indie, MA-7

[ Parent ]
A small minority can and does it. After a few years, only a select few.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Mormons and Democrats

The meme has been that bigoted Republicans would never nominate a Mormon. Would bigoted Democrats?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

By Definition
Any Mormon Democrat liberal enough to be in consideration would almost certainly be a Mormon-in-name only. And I suspect supporting Gay Marriage would soften a lot of the opposition. That said they might have to be more outspoken on those issues to counter religious doubts.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally

[ Parent ]
There are a number of prominent Mormon D politicos
The Udalls and Harry Reid come right to mind. What you say suggests that the Mormon Church might have cause to excommunicate them, if that's what they do to a "Mormon-in-name" only. No idea if there's ever been such a push.  

Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"

[ Parent ]
Just to add, Morris Udall did pretty well all the way back in '76
Liberals of the time weren't happy with Jimmy Carter, and Morris Udall was the liberal alternative.  

Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"

[ Parent ]
delegates in PA
I'm guessing that if someone without a list wanted to select Paul delegates that their best bet would be to vote for the ones they've never heard of? (Given that Romney's campaign selected so many of the most well known names?)

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

Tom Davis
Substitute "Tea Party" with "Paulites".  

25, Male, R, NY-10

Any evidence, or do you just associate the TP with Paulites.
I ask because I generally sympathize with a lot of TP people who kick out I sufficiently conservative Rs in safe districts, but not Paulites.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
He wrote
That he's a TP favorite, when is star has crashed in SC and is only a Paulite favorite after the futile Paul endorsement.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
I also mixed him up with David Simpson. Is Simpson a Paulite as well?

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Democrat challenger John Oceguera(NV-03) is collecting his lifetime taxpayer-funded pension
at the age of 43...

LCL linked to that upthread.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
CT, RI, NY, DE Primaries
Rhode Island is pretty much proportional. We've all heard that Newt is after Delaware's winner-take-all delegates.

Connecticut and New York operate similarly. New York offers 58 congressional district delegates and Connecticut offers 15 as winner-take-all. Connecticut has 10 at large delegates, while New York has 34. They're proportional if a candidate doesn't hit 50%. They're winner-take-all if he does. This'll be a test of whether Romney has consolidated the Republican vote. Ron Paul tops out at 15%, at most. So Newt and Santorum would have to clear 35%. Santorum has dropped out, but some people will still vote for him. The question is whether that'll be 1-2% or 10-15%. If Santorum gets the 1-2%, it's hard to see Mitt not clearing 50%.

He should sweep all the congressional districts, regardless of where the Santorum vote goes.

I'm wondering what share Mitt has to get for the media to decide he's got the party behind him. 60%? 70%? Whatever it is, I don't want to see more stories about Republicans still not voting for him.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

NH-Gov: Hassan leads Lamontange 34-29.
Hassan has only 18% name recognition, Lamontange is recognized by 43% of voters. The confusedly-worded article on this poll can be found here: Link (I'm having trouble deciphering some of these sentences, so if there's anything else important here I missed please post it)

Lynch has 72% job approval.

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."

-- Stanisław Lem

Richard Mourdock
Heh, Mourdock just called up my girlfriend's dad because he's apparently a donor to the C4G and the Mourdock campaign. Apparently, he's quite personable (and not all politicians can come off that way. See Schwarz, Joe). I just found that kind of cool.

Just curious, does anyone think Lugar has any chance at this point? I have my own personal opinions but I'm curious to hear others'.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

Ca he run as an Indy or write in?
That could be troublesome.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Joe Hoeffel
LCL, how in the world did Joe Hoeffel win a Montgomery County based State House seat in the 70s? What parts of MontCo, if any, were historically Democratic?

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

A lot of you guys know a lot about politics from before you were born. I was 10 when Hoeffel was elected to the state house and he wasn't my legislator. I don't know where he represented, but I think he lived in Abington, which I don't think elected Democrats very often. Abington was probably 25 miles from where I lived. So I didn't follow the politics.

I wish I could give you more information but when I was a teen knowing my congressman put me ahead of most other kids my age. Remember, this was the stone age. There was [shudder] no Internet. There was [horrors] no cable TV. We all drove cars that looked like Fred Flinstone's.

I think Norristown is historically Democratic, but beyond that I don't know of anywhere else.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
How about Cheltenham?
That township seems like it may have been ancestrally Democratic. I may be wrong, though.  

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

[ Parent ]
It has been historically Democratic.  Hoeffel held an Abington based seat, which is not historically Democratic.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
fox not wanting to call anything yet
their expecting results to start coming in the four states that just closed in around the bottom of the hour

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

Let's get an open thread.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
MI-07: The Joe Schwarz Decision Show
Has Schwarz announced yet? At this rate, I'm expecting a Lebron James style decision show where Schwarz decides whether in this fall he's going to "take his talents to the Democratic Party" in order to take on Tim Walberg that Schwarz tries to get on national TV.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

Wouldn't suprise me

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Not yet
A headline on MIRS said that Schwarz was acting like candidate at the Eaton county event last night.  They said he talked about what his campaign ads would be like.  

[ Parent ]
Schwarz likes the media attention
The JournoList crowd loves Schwarz and always kisses his arse. Schawarz thinks of himself as a genius and loves the attention. He'll stretch this out as long as he can. If he's running though, he better be collecting petitions, fast.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

[ Parent ]
Early Returns
Romney at 60% in Rhode Island and 66% in Connecticut. Newt running 3rd in both, barely ahead of Rick Santorum.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Gets checkmark with 67% and 10% in.

Mitt up 49-34 in Sussex
So Mitt also wins DE.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

What's taking PA so long to count votes?

22, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) LUKE 18:5 is the official GOTV verse for 2014! -    

another lie from Obama
does Obama have no shame?

Of course, he deliberately did not name Virginia Foxx so she couldn't sue him.

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!


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