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Morning Political Roundup for April 25th, 2012

by: Daniel Surman

Wed Apr 25, 2012 at 08:00:00 AM EDT


Welcome to the Morning Roundup! What you missed last night:

  • Rep. Mark Critz defeated Rep. Jason Altmire for the Democratic nod in PA-12.
  • Romney won every single county in all five presidential primaries (NY, PA, DE, RI, and CT).
  • Rep. Tim Holden was defeated by double-digits by Matt Cartwright in PA-17.
  • Former Rep. Pat Murphy fell to Kathleen Kane in the Democratic Attorney General primary.
  • Scott Perry won the open PA-04 Republican primary with over 50% of thevote.
  • Coal magnate Tom Smith clinched the Republican Senate nod with over 40% of the vote; Steven Welch falls behind former State Rep. Sam Rohrer for third.
Onwards and forwards.

President- General

Empathy: 538 takes a look at the empathy gap and finds it is structural- Republicans always have a problem with empathy (like Democrats have a problem with 'leadership'), so any perceived empathy from Romney would probably only help rather than be an absolute necessity. Either way, voters who value such a trait tend to already be Democrats, and stronger factors seem to guide voters at the polls.

Ground Games: Micah Cohen points out that President Obama's campaign has already been laying down the groundwork (offices, field staff, volunteer networks) in battleground states well ahead of Mitt Romney, who has to build those organizations now that he is the presumptive nominee. The article details the number of offices and paid staffers President Obama has on the ground and notes this organization arguably helped flip three states to Obama in 2008.

Youth Vote: A good article from The Fix points out that President Obama did not particularly inspire college students to turn out. A look at college turnout shows that participation among the youth has significantly declined since the 1980s. Instead, the big change was how President Obama dominated the youth vote in 2008 with a 34-point margin over John McCain, double Clinton's performance with the same demographic.

Bloomberg: John McCain is courting New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, attempting to get him to endorse Mitt Romney for President. 

President- Primary

Paul: Defeat Federal Reserve Governors? Collect gold and delegates? Obviously a Ron Paul video game is coming out.

Texas: Paul is also holding a series of town halls across Texas this week, in El Paso, UT-Austin, and the University of Houston. The campaign saved a chunk of money for advertising in a final hurrah in California or Texas, but I wonder to what end? (Rather than focusing on smaller states where he can build stronger margins, to be clear) Paul supporters turned out for county conventions the last two weekends with the assistance of the Santa Rita Super PAC, but their numbers were nowhere near a majority to control the state convention (to which I am a delegate). Paul may be building contacts for his movement; the Paul organization has accumulated massive amounts of data that it records even after it cannot be used for GOTV (like sign-ins at rallies the night before a primary or caucus, for example) that could be used on future runs.

Gingrich: Molly Ball writes a scathing piece on what Gingrich lost by running for President. Gingrich's web of nonprofits and think tanks has lost its financing while he has lost his relationship with Fox News, where he was once a paid contributor. I think Ball is unfair here- were it not for the Death Star, the race may have been extremely different. To have the chance at becoming the President of the United States, rather than wondering what-if, was likely worth the risk for Gingrich.

Veepstakes

Who cares: Nate Silver argues that the Vice President has little effect on his or her home state on election day. He finds that, on average, a Vice Presidential candidate improves their ticket's performance by about 2% in the home state and 4% in elections since 1984. 

Senate

Nevada: Well, this bodes well in Nevada. Apparently Sheldon Adelson has an old grudge against Rep. Shelley Berkeley, and he intends to put some money behind targeting her. Nobody knows how much, but consider this: he gave $20 million to Gingrich just to help a friend. How much will he spend to stop an enemy?

Massachusetts: Senator Scott Brown (R) is calling on Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren (D) to release her tax returns six years back. She already released two years back before she backtracked and released four years' worth of returns when pressed. Brown plans to release his returns on Friday.

North Carolina: Ugh. I don't want to even touch this mess, but just so you know former Senator and Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards' trial began Monday. I won't bother to recount what led to his corruption trial; it is in the link if you do not yet know the story by heart.

Illinois: Mark Kirk's office released a new picture of the Senator and reports that his recovery is going well since suffering a stroke in January. 

Maine: Senator Snowe (supposedly R) will not necessarily use her campaign funds to help the eventual Republican nominee. She has a warchest of $2.36 million, a massive amount in Maine. Supposed she will donate to "like-minded" candidates to give "a national voice" to centrist views. So who could receive money?

Three GOP candidates have ties to Snowe. Charlie Summers is a former Snowe staffer, while Rick Bennett was Snowe's campaign treasurer until she jumped out of the race. William Schneider, meanwhile, received access to Snowe's email list of supporters when he was gathering signatures to get on the primary ballot.

State Treasurer Bruce Poliquin and Scott D'Amboise are largely backed by the tea party movement and may be unlikely to receive Snowe's support. Republican state Sen. Debra Plowman, R-Hampden, has supported anti-abortion bills in the Legislature that may not align with Snowe's pro-choice beliefs.

Her former campaign consultant would not say if Snowe would consider donating to independent candidate and former Governor Angus King.

New Mexico: PPP finds Rep. Martin Heinrich (D) leading former Rep. Heather Wilson 48-43 (47-40) and Auditor Hector Balderas leading Wilson 44-43 (43-43). In the primary, Heinrich leads Balderas 51-27 (47-30).

Governor

North Carolina: Former Rep. Bob Etheridge recently released a new ad that will go up on five media markets over two weeks. Interestingly, the ad does not mention his time in Congress. The campaign spent "a couple hundred thousand dollars" on the buy. Lieutenant Governor Walter Dalton is also going up on the air with a similar-sized buy.

House

GA-04: This had been mentioned in the comments some time back, but former Rep. Cynthia McKinney (D) is looking at running for her old seat again as a Green. Ballot access for minor party US House candidates is particularly horrid (There is no electronic copy, but Richard Winger has a well-written analysis of Georgia's ballot access laws in the Election Law Journal) in Georgia, requiring 18,860 registered voters to sign her petitions to get on the ballot. While McKinney would not verify to the AJC that she is running (why wouldn't you talk to the press?), everyone knows she is. This will be her third rematch with Rep. Hank Johnson, famed for his thoughts on Guam and its potential to capsize. Of course, McKinney is a Gaddafi supporter; I'd prefer innocently misinformed to dangerously wrong.

KY-04: An internal from the Massie camp has him up by 10 points over his closest opponent. The poll by Wenzel Strategies has Massie at 32%, Alicia Webb-Edgington at 22%, Gary Moore 17%, and all other opponents in single digits. I have mentioned my distrust of Wenzel Strategies before- you can read a pretty decent takedown of its polling at the Huffington Post. I think the author overstates their case, but they bring up very significant points about poll wording.

Miscellaneous

Google: Ars Technica reports that Google spent over $5 million to lobby between January and March of this year, much of it against SOPA/PIPA. While that money was one-time, Google is expanding its reach onto Capitol Hill. How will new tech donors change elections, if groups like Google and Facebook get into the PAC game?

Minnesota Legislature: Minnpost releases a great tool to find vulnerable seats in the State House and State Senate. The big takeaway: 

In the House, we found a total of 14 Republican incumbents running in or retiring from districts that favor the DFL or are evenly split, while no DFL incumbents are running in GOP-leaning districts. For the House to change hands, Democrats need a net gain of six seats. In the Senate, 11 Republican incumbents are running in districts that favor the DFL with one incumbent in an evenly split district, and two DFL incumbents are running in districts that favor the GOP. To gain control of the Senate, Democrats need a net gain of four seats.

 You can read their methodology here.

Daniel Surman :: Morning Political Roundup for April 25th, 2012
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Critz won


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

Haha thanks
That typo ranks up there with my writing in a roundup almost a year ago that Barack Obama won Montana.

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04

[ Parent ]
No problem
I though that you might've just gone to bed early last night and missed Critz rise from the dead at the 11th hour.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Who cares? I care.
Hey, Nate! 2% or 4% can be the difference between winning or not winning a must-win state. Thank you! Now go back to your fiends at the New York Times and play with your shiny new calculator.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

to his credit
He mentioned that in the last paragraph, which kind of undercut his whole theme.  But when was the last time a VP nominee was truly from a "Swing State"?
2008-AK/DE Nope
2004-NC Not yet
2000-WY/CT Not really
1996-NY Nope
1992-TN Probably not (Clinton was popular enough in TN for 3 way race)
1988-TX/IN No
1984-NY Who knows if the election was close, but no
1980-TX-CT Nah
1976-KS/MN Probably not
...and so forth.  So despite all of the columns about a VP tipping a swing state or not, we really don't have any data at which to look...

[ Parent ]
Presidential help
I thought the VP was no help. How much does Silver think the President's home state is worth? Obama added 3.2 points to Illinois' PVI. McCain added 3.4 to his. Texas dropped off 1.3 points after Bush. Mass dropped 3.5, but it actually went down with Kerry. You'll have a tough time making the case that the President's home state is worth more than 3-4 points.

You can compare it to congressional results. Democratic incumbents exceeded Obama by 8.7 points and Republican incumbents exceeded McCain by 12.9 points. That's a lot but Republican incumbents exceeded McCain by 10-11 points in Iowa, Michigan, and New Jersey and 15.3 in Wisconsin.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
*friends


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
is there an update of the delegate count
That reflects yesterday's primary results?

We all know that Romney is going to win, but I'm curious how close he is to that magic number.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


He's at 844 delegates (300 to go)
http://www.google.com/election...

He'll clinch the nomination in Texas (May 29).

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
they appear to largely be missing PA
They are listing 2 for Romney and 0 for everybody else in PA.

The other states from last night look complete (or very close to it.)


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
Typo...
Tom Smith, not Tim.

Also, on PA-04: ugh.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.


Q CT Poll
Malloy unpopular.
Ds overturning the death penalty is a hugely unpopular move.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/inst...  

25, Male, R, NY-10


Hugely Unpopular?
It's basically 49-46%, hardly "hugely unpopular".  

The large drop in approval for Malloy is disturbing though, he had been coming back up.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
Um
When half of the voters in the survey are asked if the State Legislature's decision to abolish the death penalty is a "good idea" or "bad idea," they say "bad idea" 60 - 34 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

When the other half of voters are asked about abolishing the death penalty and replacing it with life in prison with no chance of parole, they say "bad idea" 54 - 42 percent.



25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Not surprising
Connecticut is a pretty tough law and order state.  It has one of the highest incarceration rates in the country.  

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Ah yes
I must have missed that paragraph.  The one I read was about the current inmates on Death Row.

Yes, you are correct then, Interesting that a blue state like CT supports it that much.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
Google "Cheshire Home Invasion"
And you'll see why Malloy is loco to be pushing repeal  

[ Parent ]
I Disapprove of This Move
If they were real Liberals, they'd abolish incarceration too.  

[ Parent ]
I understand you
Living in California with Kamala Harris and Janice Hahn can create a phobia that all liberals are against law and order.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
What?
You can dislike our positions all you want but please do no mischaracterize them.

Some Conservatives after all are against the Death Penalty on moral grounds as well lets not forget.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
As Moshe Said Above...
...There are bona fide anti-incarceration Libs in San Francisco (and other parts of the Bay Area). Don't kid yourself that they're not out there.  

[ Parent ]
San Fran
I don't doubt that there are SOME who are totally against incarceration, but they are such a small part of the population.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
There is an anti-incarceration movement
But its backers are anarchists, not liberals.  

30, Left leaning indie, MA-7

[ Parent ]
Ding, ding, ding, fifty points
and they'd hate it if you called them liberals; too right-wing for them.

American. | Democrat. | Econ & WGS major.

[ Parent ]
Agreed
IJB has CCS, 'Conservative Californian Syndrome,' which afflicts some conservatives in California when they realize that they live in such a left-leaning state.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Lieberman at 45/41 approval
He'd probably be winning in a three-way showdown.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
I know you adore him,
but I think that if he began to campaign, a lot of Democrats would be reminded why they hate him and he'd go back down again.

[ Parent ]
49-46 is polarized, not unpopular.


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
I made the same mistake
That's just about the current inmates, not overall.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Oh. I thought those were Malloy fav/unfav numbers.
My bad

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Samantha Power
Obama's latest radical appointee.
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-P...

Supports the US sending forces to Israel to "protect Palestinians"...  

25, Male, R, NY-10


IIRC
She was thrown out of the Obama campaign in '08 for calling Hillary Clinton a monster.

21, Thatcherite,

[ Parent ]
WV-SEN
Will Raeses comments hurt him at all?  Is he likely to do better or worse than 2010 considering Maloney is on the ballot and Obama is as well.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Thought you might like this
all the ED results for Nassau & Suffolk going back to 2010 elections!

http://politics.newsday.com/re...

Walker/Martinez 2016


[ Parent ]
Wow, Thanks!
Great tool!  Romney won over 72% in my precinct looks like, which is around what I figured he would.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Looks like
I'm moving from a 51% Bellone precinct to a 54% Bellone precinct, so not much of change.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
My guess is
slightly worse. He's definitely running a worse campaign this time around but 2012 is not likely to favor Dems significantly more than 2010 did in WV. I'd say he probably gets about 40.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
SB1070 Oral Arguments Today
Not enough coverage.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

Gingrich out.
http://www.foxnews.com/politic...

The former House speaker will "more than likely" endorse Mitt Romney when he makes his announcement to either suspend or end the campaign, a source said.  

27, R, PA-07.


I wonder how he will get rid of his debt.
I thought that he might stay in to fundraise so that he could pay off his campaign's debt.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Romney doean't have the money
At least not now, and at least not directly yet. He could, in theory, pay of Gingrich's debt with what he has now, and "loan" his own campaign an equivalent amount.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
I never thought of that.
Is that acommon practice? I could definetly see Gingrich doing a wholesale drop-out and endorsement if his debts are paid off.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Labor Dept Farm Regulations
It looks like Obama and the Dems efforts to kill off blue dogs and get 33% of the white vote are ratcheting up: http://dailycaller.com/2012/04...

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

Interesting
This might upset the affluent white liberals as many of them love the organic farms who are often family farms.

This might also get the Amish out to the polls in Pennsylvania.  They rarely vote unless someone does something that impacts them in such a dumb fashion.

Again when is the media going to ask about the Democrats war on white people?

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
I don't think that there's a 'war on white people,'
but there is definitely a pattern of hurt being put on the non-unionized (and sometimes even unionized) white blue collar citizen through regulation.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
This is crazy
Are they going to arrest parents for having their kids do chores? Can't we let parents be the parents of their children? Or is that a job for government too?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Next up
Kids not allowed to do laundry and cooking. Illegal immigrants required.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Yep
I can't believe anyone is that stupid to support something like this. Sure, let's just take kids off the farm.  Give them some more free time to booze and hit the drugs.  Meanwhile illegals will get to take over some more American jobs.

Saint Paul (MN-4)  

[ Parent ]
Meh
I'll wait to see if this gets implemented (and enforced) and actually starts affecting people significantly.

American. | Democrat. | Econ & WGS major.

[ Parent ]
He wants to replace the work ethic
with the welfare ethic. Listen to the whine-fest he led about student loans this week.

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!


[ Parent ]
A little taste of Newark, NJ
A defaced sign for Cory Booker's preferred slate of candidates in last week's (mostly powerless) school board elections I saw in my neighborhood.

http://yfrog.com/gzb06hqj

(Needless to say, the governor is not very popular in the inner city.)

American. | Democrat. | Econ & WGS major.


VA-Pres: Romney 45 Obama 44
Tennessee State Legislature
the more interesting part of the article is Turner's
Apparently the Democrats are polling so bad that they'd consider it a victory to net lose "only" a few seats.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
It annoys me that they only talk about one specific district.


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Va-Gov: White House gate crasher Tareq Salahi to run for Gov?
If your wife is like mine and makes you watch the Real Housewives you know how annoying this is:
http://www.tmz.com/2012/04/25/...
The sad thing is I think he's doing this for real!

Plot thickens in IL-13
http://capitolfax.com/2012/04/...

Tim Johnso is an a**hole, as this seems very true.  

25, Male, R, NY-10


Clarke is probably doomed


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Hopefully
Let's try Harold, or maybe one of the state legislators.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
On the brightside if Johnson didnt pull this stunt
the Dems would have gotten an A-lister to run instead of the D-list candidate they are stuck with.

[ Parent ]
Links
Common Cause/NY Files Challenge to 63rd Senate District
http://readme.readmedia.com/Co...

Incumbents fall in PA House, congressional races
http://paindependent.com/2012/...

So far, Gary Peters ahead of rivals in diverse new congressional district
http://www.freep.com/article/2...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Mississippi State House
map:

http://www.clarionledger.com/a...

Republican Medical Doc from New York, NY


This map will deal major blows to
the few white democrat legislators who are still out there.

I look 6 to 7 more GOP house members and maybe 10-12 fewer white democrats.  


[ Parent ]
appears much messier than it needs to be
are they going for +/- 1% deviation? Seems to be splitting just about every county.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
It looks less messy than the current map.


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
mn-sen
http://www.minnpost.com/politi...

Advantage Bills? Maybe.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


Good
At the least, name rec from a Senate run could make him a frontrunner for MN2 after Kline steps down.

Saint Paul (MN-4)  

[ Parent ]
Pat McCrory boasts $1.7 million haul with $3.1 million in war chest
Blue Dogs gone
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballo...

"The complexion of the House Democratic Caucus may change a bit," he added, "but I don't think there's any doubt that the House Democratic Caucus is the most diverse body of legislative representatives you can find at the federal level of the United States."

That's right! You have White people on the far left, Blacks on the far left, women on the far left, and Hispanics on the far left!

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


There a few moderates left, but they're fast dwindling in number.
I doubt that they'll ever be completely gone, but the coalition might become defunct.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Pelosi V. Hoyer
is still an undercurrent on the D side.  The Hill Press loves to play up Boehner and Cantor throwing elbows at each eachother but frankly its been nothing like the two D leaders.  Pelosi and Clyburn tried to hang Hoyer out to dry in December 2010. House elections are by secret ballot but its been assumed that most of the blue dogs have been tight with Hoyer. Some  blue dogs have not even voted for Pelosi for Speaker-like Giffords in 2011.

As the blue dogs dwindle what will be the effect on Hoyer? It cannot be good.  

Clearly after this election the number of white D's will certainly be lower and I suspect female numbers will increase regardless of whether the Ds win seats.


[ Parent ]
Supreme Court
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

Looks poised to deliver Conservatives 2 victories this summer.  Not really shocking for anyone who understands the people on the court.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


Not really shocking
If you follow the law and respect states rights either.

Hopefully this will drum up support for conservatives this fall.  

27, IL-7, Fiscal Conservative


[ Parent ]
I think they'll split on the four provisions
I don't think it'll be 5-3.

They'll rule that anything that abides by Federal law will be Constitutional, but that the two provisions which create their own law will be struck down. The justices were clearly skeptical in how a state enforcing existing Federal law goes beyond their authority.

I think the conservatives will be uncomfortable with Arizona creating laws that contradict/go beyond Federal law since foreign relations is clearly a Federal function.

Justice Sonia Sotomayor says

You can see it's not selling very well.

It's hard to see the votes to strike those provisions down.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
I guess my analysis of
the Mississippi house map is accurate:

http://www.sunherald.com/2012/...


Good
Make the southern white democrat extinct.  

27, IL-7, Fiscal Conservative

[ Parent ]
Basil Marceaux is running for TN HD-27
http://tnsos.org/elections/201...

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

Basil Marceaux
Or Basil Marceaux Dot Com?

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Sr
it's the same guy.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Basil Marceaux
How low will he go in the primary vote share?

[ Parent ]
Pretty low.
He's running against an incumbent Republican, Richard Floyd (R-Chattanooga).

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Nick Steward, a black city councilman from Clarksville, is running for the TN lege as a Republican.
http://www.clarksvilleonline.c...

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

And in other news, Jewish businesswoman runs for Highland Park City Council as a Democrat.
[ Parent ]
I can't tell from the article
whetherarticle whether she's running in Highland Park, IL or Highland Park, TX.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
IL
There's a newspaper called Highland Park Patch based in the town of the same name in IL

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Ah
So is the described situation unusual, like the one that I posted? By the way, Steward is running in TN HD-74.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
No.
You missed the point.  

[ Parent ]
Actually, I didn't.
I didn't want to be rude in case I was wrong. But now I'll be rude. This constant criticism of my and other's efforts to broaden the GOP's appeal without sacrificing our principles is really p****** me off. You and your holier-than-thou, ivory tower high-mindedness are going to hurt us down the line (that line was heavily edited or personal insults). This is a very, very unusual situation, even for this guy to be on the Clarksville City Council in the first place, let alone have a chance at being a Republican state rep. From such a white and Yellow Dog-heavy area. For you to mock me for pointing out the guy's candidacy is petty and absurd.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
*for, from


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
I'll ignore most of this
What I will say is that what I was trying to point out is that a fixation on recruiting minorities will make minority voters feel as if the GOP is desperate for their support and will make them feel that the GOP thinks that recruiting black candidates is enough alone for them to vote Republican. In a way, it's the same way how someone we've observed on another site goes on and on about female candidates. It takes away from the merit of the particular candidates.


[ Parent ]
This guy is impressive regardless of race.
He's young (20s), does great constituent service (you can see it on his FB page), got elected in a a pretty Democratic area, and isn't afraid to take on a strong incumbent for a state house slot. Also, Haslam recently appointed him to the state pest control board. He could very well be a rising star (I believe that he's. Military reservist as well, but I have to check that). If I had just linked to a promising lege candidate named Nick Seward, who would have been interested? Maybe Jon. I'll also point out that the practice of another blogger to which you refer is very different, since Dems already get a big majority of women voters nationally. I'll also point out that I promote minority candidates who I also think are great candidates. Paul Scott was an embarrassment. Vernon Robinson is off his rocker. That black guy running for CA-01 has no shot and is so much less impressive than LaMalfa or Aanestad that I'd never consider supporting him unless those two turned out to be fatally flawed. Joe Zchow is not going to beat Joe Barton, but he's running. Have I ever tried to rally support for Chow? No.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
*Chow


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
This is (kind of) what I want to hear
See, I was NOT trying to restart our old discouraged minority recruitment argument. I was just trying to point out that it's a horrible messaging tool to point out that he's black because it takes away from the rest of his candidacy and makes everyone think "OMG HE'S BLACK." That will just turn off black voters altogether more than they are already turned off by the GOP because it will make it look like we need to run black candidates in order to tempt them to vote for the GOP. The right messaging would be pointing out how impressive he is because, believe me, people notice black GOP candidates and if the black community sees their running as natural and not as an attempt to win over black support, black voters may be more comfortable with the GOP.

[ Parent ]
*to initially point out that he's black.


[ Parent ]
Whatever your intentions were, you restarted it..
Your idea is good in theory, but I again ask you: Who would have given a flying (insert curse word) what was beyond that link if I hadn't pointed out that Steward is black? There are thousands of state legislative candidates in this country, and hundreds of impressive Republicans running for lower offices. We don't have time to look at them all. We have to prioritize. Again, in theory, your idea makes sense, but you're forgetting something very important, and that is that no matter how far this site has come, there isn't a digest of the previous day's site activity delivered to doorstep of every household in America along with the newspaper. This isn't Parade. Random Black Voter won't know that we ever spoke about this.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Not going to continue it
I made my point about messaging, part of a separate debate than the one the moderators told us not to have, so I'm going to stop.

[ Parent ]
I was talking about messaging.
Continue away.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Let me just say
that you won't get too much more of the African American vote even if you elect various AAs in State Legislature and Congress.

There are policy positions that the Republican Party needs to change for African Americans to change their support to you guys.

And perhaps it would be best to change the African American leaders of the Republican Party. Allen West's approval among African American blacks in Florida is 15%. That compares to Rick Scott's 13%, Marco Rubio's 13%, and  Jeb Bush's 16%.


[ Parent ]
I'm not talking about getting a majority,
just grabbing a few more percentage points.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Cruz Getting Closer in TX-SEN primary, Dewhurst still up 12
http://www.publicpolicypolling...

From PPP.  Of note is that Cruz and Dewhurst have different sets of voters in the general election.  Cruz actually wins Hispanics by 4 against Hubbard (40-36) and only loses them by 3 to Sadler (38-41) while Dewhurst loses them by 11 and 14, respectively.  However, Dewhurst wins Whites in both cases by over 30, and Cruz only has a 22 and 25-point edge with them.

You see a similar trend by age as well.  Cruz leads with the under-30s by 4 points each while dewhurst loses them by 8 and 13.  However, Dewhurst wins older voters by a much larder margin than Cruz does.

Both of these trends however should be taken with a grain of salt, as there are larger numbers of undecided voters in this poll.  Name Recognition might explain these trends more than the actual candidates.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-14

Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


thanks for posting
Looking over that report I think that Cruz should be able to close that gap with older and white voters as he raises his name recognition, getting close to what Dewhurst would get among those groups on election day.  On the other hand, I don't think it would be as easy for Dewhurst to close his gap with younger and Hispanic voters to get close to what Cruz would get with those groups.  
The Texas senate seat is safe in GOP hands with either Dewhurst or Cruz (or even Leppert).  I might prefer Cruz for his appeal to Hispanics.

IL-11/M/44/Libertarianish Independent

[ Parent ]
Hispanics
I do not see how  someone of partial Cuban ancestry will appeal to Hispanic voters in Texas who are overwhelmingly Mexican. I think Cruz could turn-off Hispanic voters as he is Hispanic in name only.

[ Parent ]
More TN state lege news
The Dems choked on it in HD-45. Mark Pody (R-Lebanon) gets a free term in a seat that was winnable for Democrats because no one filed to run against him. Also, I have previously stated that former Dem state rep.; Mark Maddox was running for his old seat against Tim Wirgau. I was mistaken, Maddox is seeking to reclaim his old seat from Andy Holt (R-Dresden), not Wirgau. In SD-10, state rep. Vince Dean (R- East Ridge) decided against a run, and will remain in the house.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

TN Leg recruitment
The Dems choked on it in HD-45. Mark Pody (R-Lebanon) gets a free term in a seat that was winnable for Democrats because no one filed to run against him.

How common has it been for Democrats in TN this cycle to fail to recruit people? I bet it's more common than before now that they're buried deeply in the minority in the Tennessee Legislature.


[ Parent ]
Pody's seat isn't actually that winnable
This is Lebanon, which is becoming more suburban and worse for Democrats because of that.  

[ Parent ]
There's enough rural territory
andterritory and ancestral Democrats to bring Stratton Bone back from the dead, if he desired to be resurrected, but yes, the Wilson Counth portion is suburbanizing.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
So now...
this site is telling me to "Fight back against Romney's assault on the middle class!"

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1



It's telling me
to donate to Mitt Romney lol.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
I'm being told
to join the Tea Party and make a donation to the Tea Party Patriots today to "help defeat dangerous liberal policies"

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
Tom Barrett
Every article on weeklystandard.com was for Tom Barrett and sure enough there's one here. I especially liked the Barrett ad next to the article blasting Barrett.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
I'm just being told to buy more Beech-nut baby cereal!


[ Parent ]
I saw a Tea Party Patriots ad while lurking at DKE yesterday.


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
cool


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Haha
We obviously don't control what ads appear here; the ad companies buy space from us and they put up what they think is appropriate. The amount of Democratic advertising we get here shows that web ads can be an inefficient use of campaign money, although we're of course happy to have their business!

[ Parent ]
Inexperienced or Lazy planners
I'm someone who places ads, although I have yet to do political ads. The ads you get are decided by the cookies on your computer. Those are placed on there by each site. I visited Staples.com and I now get a lot of Staples ads. If you've been to a political website, you're going to get a political ad, even on non-political websites. That's the way the vendor's computer decides what you see.

Clearly no one has told the company serving us ads that any political ad is perfect for the viewer because he's been to a political website. Chances are the media buyer is inexperienced (or lazy) in buying advertising on the web and just gave the ad sales company an order without reviewing the site criteria. I'd specify the sites that I didn't want to be on.

I assume that the campaigns get a report of where the ads ran and what the click through rate was. They should at least adjust it then.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Unless an adman visits --and reads-- every web site
there's no way to tell that "redracinghorses" is associated with people who believe in Republicans. After all, there's no .left or .right Top-Level Domain (TLD), and red is the color of the left in the rest of the world.

It's the reason for things like the .xxx, .aero, .mobi, and .travel TLDs.  

Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"


[ Parent ]
no longer shows me any ads
But I did recently get a browser extension as I was tired of some other sites wasting bandwidth by downloading ad videos
 

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
I've been seeing Kinder ads for months.
nt

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Senator Lee
I've been seeing Mike Lee ads that say something like "stand with Mike Lee against President Obama's assault on the Constitution" on DKE for weeks. It's really amusing me because seeing that ad frequently must make a lot of liberals' blood boil.

[ Parent ]
Doesn't bother me
As in my mind I know he's wrong, but I bet it does anger some lol.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Heh
Those on Daily Kos who say things like "Rethugs" and "Repuglicans" and spend their days talking about how eeeevil!1!! all Republicans are (so, not the DKE users but the main page DK users) are the ones who probably get angry at those ads. You don't think all Republicans are evil goons (at least I hope)!

[ Parent ]
They probably don't see it.
You're probably getting that because you google Mike Lee a lot :P

[ Parent ]
Strange
It showed up on a friend's computer, too. Maybe that's just coincidence (although I have probably Googled Mike Lee more than I've Googled Jim Risch, per say).

[ Parent ]
I often get Chad Prosser
because I've been to his website multiple times. That's all it is.  

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
I went to Jeff Hunt's website once
To remind myself which NC district he was running in. For the next three weeks, I saw his ads on every website I visited, even the ones that had nothing to do with politics.

[ Parent ]
I always get
Pro-Scott Walker ads.
I guess, they know how much I love him.

I got now Angus King too...  

25, Male, R, NY-10


[ Parent ]
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