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Afternoon Political Roundup for April 25th, 2012

by: Daniel Surman

Wed Apr 25, 2012 at 16:55:34 PM EDT


President- General

New Mexico: PPP- Obama 48 Romney 35 Johnson 15; Obama 54 Romney 40

Senate

Virginia: Rasmussen/POS- George Allen (R) 46%, Tim Kaine (D) 45%

Florida: Now that Florida CFO Jeff Atwater is out, some are attempting to tout George LeMieux as the conservative alternative. Which is odd, since LeMieux worked for Crist and was not known as a particularly conservative associate of his. To me this article sounds like sour grapes over being stuck with Mack

Texas: PPP- Dewhurst 38 Cruz 26 Leppert 8 James 7. Cruz leads Dewhurst 39-34 among those who are familiar with both figures.

Crossroads: Crossroads GPS has launched is spending $1.2 million in Montana, Missouri, Nevada, Virginia, and North Dakota. 

Governor

New Hampshire: UNH Survey Center- Hassan 34 Lamontagne 29; Hassan 29 Smith 24; Cilley 31 Lamontagne 30; Cilley 30 Smith 23

Florida: Confirmation that Governor Rick Scott (R) plans to run again in 2014. Scott is not the most popular figure in Florida, creating worries for when he is at the top of the ballot in 2014.

Miscellaneous

Alabama: One overlooked special election in Alabama last night. Twinkle Andress Cavanaugh won the GOP nomination in a runoff to take on the incumbent PSC President. The incumbent is Lucy Baxley, who defeated Cavanaugh by 1% in 2008 and is the only Democratic statewide officeholder left.
Daniel Surman :: Afternoon Political Roundup for April 25th, 2012
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Afternoon Political Roundup for April 25th, 2012 | 45 comments
Pennsylvania State Senate
Heh, TwoHundertSeventy and I were just discussing something amusing: an Altmire v. Hart Pennsylvania State Senate race. :p

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line.
No way Gary Johnson gets 15% in November
But it is interesting that the PPP poll found him taking slightly more from Obama (6 pts) than Romney (5).

Age 42. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.
Obama hopes GOP gets 'liberated' after election
http://campaign2012.washington...

I'm always amazed how Democrats not only know what they believe but also know what we believe better than we do. Here's my takeaway.

1. Some of us want to repeal every regulation "on the books."
2. The real Republicans want to get tough on Wall Street.
3. Congressional Republicans are really liberals waiting for the moment when they can spend spend spend and raise taxes.
4. Republicans don't really believe in low spending. Only Rush Limbaugh and Grover Norquist do and everyone is afraid of them.
5. Dwight Eisenhower would fit in well with today's Democrats.

Well, he's all but said that today's Democrats are governing the way Reagan did. So why not Eisenhower?

I'm always amazed at the arrogance it takes to say that we don't think for ourselves and that Rush is doing it for us.

While I'm sure some of #3 is true, that in a different environment [cough] George Bush [cough] some of these congressmen would spend spend spend, it isn't Grover Norquist or Rush Limbaugh that they're afraid of. It's us. Rush and Grover reflect what we believe, not the other way around.

Of course this is the guy who thinks the majority of Republicans want to raise taxes on the rich.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

NH
I hate polls like this. Teach. The. Kids. How. To. Push. Leaners.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
UNH is notorious for that
At least at this stage. They're not a bad pollster once they start pushing leaners, but until about a month before the election all they do is turn out polls showing the candidate tied at 35.
[ Parent ]
Swing state poll: Obama up 2, 5 in VA, OH; Romney up 2 in FL; CO tied
http://www.purplestrategies.co...

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast
Minnesota
If Minnesota goes Romney then he's won enough of these other states to win the election. I'd substitute Michigan. While Michigan may be more Democratic, Romney may get a home state bump to push it into the toss-up category. I don't see Minnesota being more competitive than Michigan.

Three of the regions are within two points. The "Heartland" is the one that isn't. While Iowa is in play, Minnesota and Wisconsin are two of the three most Obama states in the 12. I wonder what each individual state looks like here. I'd guess Iowa is close, but Minnesota is not and that skews it.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
i know a lot of people don't like these type of polls
But it's actually always made me wonder more about the "National" polls.  There's no way most polling companies are polling every state in proportion to its population to the nation.  More likely they are hitting key areas and metros that are swingy or bellwethers and playing with their numbers from there.  So actually these are probably the same kind of numbers that are used for national polls, just broken out for us to see...
[ Parent ]
What? No. Of course they do.
They don't explicitly weigh by state, but they weigh by Census regions with the implicit assumption that within these regions you'll hit every state in its proportion to the population.
[ Parent ]
right, by region though
Like Gallup says:
...each respondent is assigned a weight so that the demographic characteristics of the total weighted sample of respondents match the latest estimates of the demographic characteristics of the adult population available from the U.S. Census Bureau. Gallup weights data to census estimates for gender, race, age, educational attainment, and region.

So it's conceivable that the margin of error for the smaller states in a region could be way off.  My bellwether sentence didn't come out the way I meant it, though.  A couple of weeks ago I spent a few days with Arbitron diaries (a bi-annual tradition) and it scrambled my brain!  

[ Parent ]
Of course. But they don't break it down by state.
You can't really do that from national polls. A tracker with 1500 people would have like 15 people from Mississippi for instance. And over large periods of time, like when Gallup releases their annual data broken down by state, things cancel out and you get to correct proportions.
[ Parent ]
My larger point is though that at least in theory
everyone is equally likely to be called. They don't just call swing metropolitan areas or bellwethers or something like that. When you're in Teton, Wyoming, you should have an equal chance of being called as someone from Orlando, Florida. Whether you are is another question, but things won't be deliberately biased against you.
[ Parent ]
They really should just poll the 12 states individually
I know they want to make regionally conclusions (probably cheaper too), but I think their polling would be more valuable if they separated them out.

Good to see Mitt up in FL, close in Virginia, but I'm getting concerned with OH. Maybe Rob Portman isn't such a bad idea. I havn't see Mitt within 5% in any poll there.

Also, this poll contradicts what PPP has been telling us for a while in CO, which is that the race there isn't that close. I think PPP's latest out there was an Obama 13% lead (yeah right).  

R, MA-3

[ Parent ]
in this poll
Mitt is clearly up in PA as he is down in OH.

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
Not surprising
My thesis about this election is going to pan out.  Romney is simply a better fit for Pennsylvania than Ohio.  There is a lot of Obama districts that elect Romney clones in Pennsylvania.  Not so many in Ohio.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
PA-Primary: Conservative PAC goes 1 for 5 against moderate incumbents
http://www.abc27.com/story/177...

The machine lives!

27, Republican, PA-6

Hahaha, she drives a Hummer
Ryan, I think you should have lent her opponent the tank. That would have made the difference. . . a tank would have TOTALLY crushed a Hummer.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line.
[ Parent ]
Actually,
the Dauphin County machine was against Helm.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Well one faction
She just happens to be a part of the machine that is on the outs at the moment.

I was specifically referring to the CAP group going after incumbents for being machine candidates.

27, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Rick Perry endorses Romney
https://twitter.com/#!/danbalz...

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast
NY state senate
Rudy Giuliani running against Avella.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

Ok,not that one.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

If I wasn't so young,
I would have had a heart attack. As it is, my heart skipped a beat. I'm sure that Andyroo will stroke out.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Yes
Andyroo has fallen off the face of the earth since this broke.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
GREAT get for the Senate GOP!!!!!
They made Avella's seat slightly more Dem in redistricting which is why Halloran went for a Congressional run (hoping for a split Dem field) rather than a state senate run. But having a big name like Giuliani on the ballot (even if its only a cousin) could be enough of a game changer. Because of his well known cousin this Rudy should be able to raise a ton of cash and make a real race out of it.  
[ Parent ]
The one bit of bad news though is that Sen Toby Ann Stavisky
who was drawn into this district with Avella has decided to run in the Asian majority district instead of challenging Avella in a primary. I still think this is the ideal seat for Peter Koo to run in and am kind of surprised the Senate GOP isnt offering him the sun and the moon to try and take Stavisky on again.
[ Parent ]
Because
he is not a republican anymore.

Republican Medical Doc from New York, NY
[ Parent ]
Neither was Grisanti or Felder
but the Senate GOP is more than happy to have them in their caucus. I'm sure Skelos could care less what party Mr. Koo registers with as long as he back Skelos for majority leader!
[ Parent ]
Mia Love's Convention Speech
For those who missed it:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

Male, LA-06/LA-01 (Home is where the heart is)
Cassidy, Tillis, Rounds, Latham for Senate!  

Watched it
And I can totally see her giving that exact speech at the RNC in August. She needs a speaking slot. With Josh Romney having campaigned hard for her, I wouldn't be surprised for her to get it.  

Male, LA-06/LA-01 (Home is where the heart is)
Cassidy, Tillis, Rounds, Latham for Senate!  
[ Parent ]
Good speech.
Not quite Rubio caliber, but definitely could be eventually.
Side note: Josh Romney sounds almost exactly like Mitt Romney, but younger.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.
[ Parent ]
Heard on Special Report
A.B. Stoddard said Democrats were emboldened by the fact that Hispanics were registering in large numbers in Arizona, potentially putting the state in play.

I looked at the numbers. Doesn't look like that is true.

AZ- Registered Voters
'04- GOP 40.0%/Dem 34.6%
'08- GOP 37.4%/Dem 34.2%
'10- GOP 36.0%/Dem 31.9%
'12- GOP 36.0%/Dem 30.2%

R, MA-3

Just hype
Arizona's not in play. It's a head fake.  

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
Crystal Ball Looks At Electoral College
George W. Bush and his friends on the left
http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

I was never happy with George W. Bush, his policies, and what they did to conservatism. Bush told us upfront he was a compassionate conservative. He set out to do things with government that many of us feel weren't government's role.

But to give the guy his due. He took $15 billion of our the Chinese government's money and set out to combat AIDS in Africa. It's one of his biggest successes. It is odd that we have a President of Kenyan descent and the former President's highest popularity is in certain African countries.


R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

GWB
Haha, Africans like Bush way more than African Americans did.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line.
[ Parent ]
By a mile.
It's one of the few regions of the world where Bush remained popular until the end of his term (surprisingly enough, India was another).  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.
[ Parent ]
Manan Trivedi & AULISD
Haha, tell that to Manan Trivedi and the rest of the Alliance of Ultra-Liberal Indians in Swing Districts (H/T to BostonPatriot for the AULISD joke, one of RRH's funniest posts ever).

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line.
[ Parent ]
Yes
Ironically the first Indian-American to be elected to high office in Pennsylvania will be a conservative Republican from Allegheny County.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
Trivedi and Raja
Haha, Trivedi must be stewing in rage over that fact. I hear he actually thinks Jim Gerlach is an extremist. I mean come on, how ridiculous do you have to be to think that Jim Gerlach is an extremist? That means that Gerlach is an ultra conservative, Tea Party Republican in Trivedi's delusional head. Heh, I also hear he thinks he's going to win and isn't just saying so.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line.
[ Parent ]
Gerlach an extremist?
I wonder what he thinks about the "T" portion of PA?

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  
[ Parent ]
Not to mention Israel.

[ Parent ]
NY SD-17
Slowly but surely, Felder is making it clear that he won't caucus with Ds, unless they have the majority without him. The clearest that he has said it until now. http://www.cityandstateny.com/...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Quote from Simcha:
"He's been a terrible president," Felder said of Obama. "Unfortunately, I was wrong, and I will certainly not be voting for the president in the upcoming election."

Republican Medical Doc from New York, NY
[ Parent ]
Vote for Obama
And lose the D primary here...  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Colorado Rs have 120k lead in voter registration since 2008
http://www.coloradopeakpolitic...

Just an FYI

A proud and scared business owner

Afternoon Political Roundup for April 25th, 2012 | 45 comments
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Elections have consequences -- from the race for President to the race for one seat on a city council. The political economist Max Weber wrote that the state possesses a monopoly on the legitimate use of force. But in the United States, the state is divided into myriad federal, state, and local entities. And the elections to fill those entities are the products of the fascinating interactions between campaigns, party affiliations, voter turnout, and the media spotlight. Red Racing Horses analyzes those elections -- from a Republican-leaning perspective -- to keep a close eye on the process of electing officials, and to offer our perspective on the election-related issues of the day. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog.

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