Romney Roadmap: The Post's road to 270 looks narrow according to this article. This is the ultimate conventional wisdom from the ultimate inside the beltway newspaper. The writer notes that Romney's path to 270 looks similar to the Bush path in 2000 & 2004. In my opinion this article repeats much of what has been discussed here for months and months. I suspect in 2016 or 2020 the writer will likely be able to just change the names of the candidates and then republish the article.
Boehner: The Speaker has followed up his endorsement of Romney by calling him "very likeable." Boehner also says that "American people don't want to vote for a loser." This was in reference to Romney's successful business career.
Gallup: The month of April is coming to an end with the President holding a narrow lead over Romney. This Gallup tracking poll shows the President ahead of his Republican foe by 47-46.
Iowa: The Republican party has gained the voter registration edge in this state for the 1st time since 2006. This will certainly start getting more people talking about a possible GOP pickup for Romney this fall. In case you are wondering, at the start of the year after the Iowa caucus, the Democratic advantage in registration was 30,000. In the months since the caucus that D advantage has disappeared. In Nov 2008 the Democrats had a 106,000 voter registration advantage over the Republicans. Iowa voter registration stats are available at this link.
Alaska: No delegates were at stake but Ron Paul and Teaparty forces took over the GOP party reins this weekend. So Mitt Romney and the National GOP will be dealing with a lot of new faces in Alaska this fall.
Louisiana: Ron Paul won a majority of delegates selected at congressional level caucuses this weekend. This will almost certainly give him the majority of this state's national convention delegates. The exact number of delegates will not be finalized until the state convention in June.
North Carolina: Stuart Rothenberg points out that North Carolina is unlikely to go for President Obama again in 2012. Several factors, including a state Democratic Party scandal, the unpopularity of Gov. Bev Purdue, the higher than national unemployment rate, and the state's traditional Republican electorate, have this one leaning toward Romney.
North Carolina: Former Congressman Bob Etheridge picks up several big endorsements today. The primary for the Democratic nomination between Bob Etheridge and Lt Gov Dalton is expected to be close. One key question will be if either candidate can top 40% next Tuesday to avoid a runoff.
Indiana 5: There will be a major race for Congress next week for this seat. It looks like former Congressman David McIntosh and former US Attorney Susan Brooks are the top fundraisers. I have not seen polling in this race, so money and newsprint seem to be pointing to these two being the front runners. This race became open when longtime Congressman Dan Burton announced he'd retire at the end of his term.
Indiana 6: Mike Pence gave up this safe Republican seat to run for governor. The three major candidates were also rans in various races in 2010. Don Bates finished 4th in the 2010 Republican Senate primary. Luke Messer narrowly lost a GOP house primary to Dan Burton in IN5. Travis Hankins narrowly lost the GOP primary to Todd Young in nearby IN9. Redistricting has placed these candidates in the redrawn 6th seat. There are several other GOP candidates but these three have drawn the most attention.
Indiana 2: The final open seat race in Indiana was vacated by Joe Donnelly. Donnelly is running for the US Senate and there is not a lot of doubt that Jackie Walorski and Brendan Mullen will win their primaries. They have raised a good bit of money but certainly will save most of their funds for their November faceoff. Republican Walorski narrowly lost this seat in 2010 and is considered by some experts to be the favorite in this race.
Minnesota 2: Mike Obermueller won the DFL endorsement to Congress this weekend. There still could be a primary for this seat later this year but the DFL endorsement just about guarantees him the nomination to take on GOP Congressman John Kline.
There are still a few loose ends to 2012 redistricting as court battles linger on.
Alaska: The Redistricting Board plans an appeal of a lower court judge who overturned the redo of its map. This is the legislative map that needs to be in place in a month so primaries can be held this summer. For those who are following closely the original map of the Redistricting Board survived a lower court fight but the Alaska Supreme Court ordered four house seats to be redone. The Board redid those four house seats and now a lower state court judge has declared the corrections are in violation of the state constitutional redistricting laws. So it is back to State Supreme Court for this map.
Florida: The state's new Congressional map's fate is in the hands of Leon County Judge Terry Lewis. The Judge has heard several days of arguments and is pondering what his options are. The filing deadlines are fast approaching and millions of Florida's voters are waiting to know what districts they will be in. The judge could decide to hold a trial to determine the constitutionality of the map or just overturn it or even draw one himself. That last option seems unlikely as the judge seems unwilling to draw it himself. The State Supreme Court, on Friday, did uphold the redrawing of the State Senate map. So only the Congressional map in Florida is not completely settled.