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Morning Political Roundup for May 2nd, 2012

by: rdelbov

Tue May 01, 2012 at 09:00:00 AM EDT


President

Gallup: The daily tracking poll has Romney and the President tied.  This poll has been consistently within a point or two for weeks now.

North Carolina: WRAL has a poll that is showing the President ahead of Romney by 47-43. The poll does show that Romney will easily win next week's GOP primary. 

Virginia: PPP finds Obama ahead of Romney 51-43. This is a state the President won by 6% in 2008. That margin mirrored his national margin.  So if you buy this poll either Obama is running better here than in 2008 or maybe Virginia is trending towards the Democrats.  Considering the shellacking the Democrats got in Viriginia in 2009, 2010 and 2011 I doubt either is true. So I remain skeptical about this poll.

Voter registration: This article suggests that a series of new laws could hinder the Democrats' efforts to register new voters. This subject can be arcane and hard to explain in 200 words or less. In the case of Florida's new laws. yes there are penalties for those who abuse the system by holding registrations for months. but you will also see people getting their voter cards quicker. There will be fewer duplicate registrations and more voters will actually have their cards in hand before they vote.  So where some people see roadblocks to people being registered I see more certainty that when people fill out registration forms they actually quickly turned in.

Governor

North Carolina: WRAL also polled next week's Governor and Lt. Governor's races. McCrory is way ahead of his unknown foes and should easily capture the GOP nod. On the surface WRAL's poll showing Lt Gov Dalton ahead of former Congressman Etheridge by 32-23 nearly matches PPP's earlier one showing him leading 36-26. The crucial differences between the polls are twofold.  1st this current poll shows more voters are undecided. 2nd other candidates in this WRAL poll are getting 15% of the vote in it.  Those two factors increase the chance Dalton could win but fall short of getting the 40% needed to avoid a runoff.

Indiana: Yes there is also a primary for Governor next week in the Hoosier state. In a bit of a turnaround, however, there is no contest for either major primary as Congressman Mike Pence and former State House Speaker John Gregg are unopposed except by nuisance candidates. This is an open seat so usually primaries are the norm but this year both parties settled on their candidates very quickly.

Senate

There was a pair of polls from two pollsters who always seem to generate discussion here.

Rasmussen Nevada: Heller leads Berkley in this poll by 51-40. This seems a bit of a stretch even with Berkley's ethical woes. 

PPP Montana: This poll shows Tester with a +5 lead over Rehberg. So between the margin and who is ahead it is a surprise to me.

House

Next Tuesday there is a series of primaries in North Carolina that could play a huge role in determining who controls the US House next year.

North Carolina 13: This open seat features three top GOP candidates in Paul Coble, Bill Holding and Bill Randall. Whoever wins the Republican primary will likely be elected Congressman this fall. This is more of an introductory post on this race as we will do a preview diary next week.  I do suspect Coble will make the runoff, but that is strictly a guess on my part.

North Carolina 11: This article relates how three GOP candidates Jeff Hunt, Mark Meadows and Ethan Wingfield led the fundraising in this race.  I suspect two of these candidates will face off in a runoff for the Republican nomination for this seat. 

North Carolina 8: Five GOP candidates are taking on Congressman Kissell in this redrawn seat. I think it is safe to say there will be a runoff. I am thinking Steen and Keadle are the top two candidates at the moment.

North Carolina 7: This could be the race of the night next week. It is a one on one contest between the 2010 nominee for this seat Ilario Pantano and State Senator David Rouzer.  Rouzer actually redesigned the 7th district to include his Johnston county home.  It is very clear that one of these two men will advance to face Congressman Mike McInytre this fall.  I am currently thinking that based on what Jesse Kelly did in AZ Pantano will win.

North Carolina 9: Finally this seat is also open as long time Congresswoman Sue Myrick is retiring.  This seat, however, almost certainly is going to stay Republican this fall. This site provides some information on all of the GOP candidates. There will almost certainly be a runoff to settle the winner of this race.

Miscellaneous

Oregon: The Secretary of State reports that in the last two years voter registration numbers have dropped by 4,000. The cutoff date to register to vote in time for the May 15th primary was last week.  I do note that there are 800 more registered Republicans today in Oregon then there were two years ago. The Democratic party shows a 44,000 decrease in their numbers with the difference being made up by people stating a minor party or no party preference at all.

Redistricting

Vermont: The long simmering struggle to redistrict Vermont is finally over.  I know everyone has been waiting for the legislative map to get done, but that day is finally here or is it?  The plan passed with bipartisan support. Yet the state GOP has talked about the population deviations being too high so they may sue. There does not appear to be much if any partisan impact in this map.

Mississippi: The GOP introduced their bill to redistrict the State Senate on Tuesday.  Unlike Vermont which has been discussing and voting on their legislative redistricting bills since last June,  Mississippi's bill will come up for a final vote today.  Specific districts have been circulated for several weeks and apparently all the problems have been ironed out. The map creates several more majority AA seats and will also likely add to the GOP senate majority.  So to be hip "it's all good" as far as I am concerned. Here's a map link.

rdelbov :: Morning Political Roundup for May 2nd, 2012
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Morning Trivia
Here's an interesting one I stumbled upon recently: Who was the last right-of-center Senator to hold Kent Conrad's current seat?

R - MD-7

*to be elected to, not to hold
nt

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
That would be, uh... Kent Conrad
OK, in all seriousness so you're looking for Bill Langer because the more recent (R) - Frazer (hope I got that correct) was a liberal and you said right-of-center... so am I right? And I don't remember when he was elected... 1928?

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
Nope
Langer was definitely left of center, probably even left of Frazier, whom he succeeded. He favored universal healthcare and some other socialist policies. I was looking for Porter J. McCumber, elected in 1916 and defeated in 1922 by Frazier.

It's interesting that ND has such a long tradition of leftism; though I don't think her internals are correct, that's reason enough for Heitkamp not to be underestimated.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
ND=SWPA (in a way)
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but this is the perception I get from the Dakotas, more specifically North Dakota.

Older ND Democratic (and many independent) voters tend to be unionists and many tend to actually be the like the culturally conservative leftist elderly voters that you find in Eastern Ohio, Western Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. You know the type: pro-gun, pro-life, pro-death penalty, anti-illegal immigration, yet are absolute leftists when it comes to fiscal policy as they love their pork, deficit spending, unions and huge entitlement programs. Think Beaver County Democrats.

I feel like once that generation is gone, the GOP will have a distinct advantage in ND, far more of an advantage than it has now.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

Carl DeMaio for CA-52!


[ Parent ]
Not quite
Prarie Populism has always been a bit more socially liberal than its Appalachian cousin. Pro-gun definitely, but not particularly conservative on any other issue; I can't think of a liberal elected official in that region that's pro-life, for example. Think IA, WI-3, or the rural parts of IL-17 for other good examples of this.

It's just as much of a dying breed as Appalachian Caseycrat liberalism though; it died c.2000 in NE, c.2010 in SD, and it's on its last gasp in ND. MT and IA should be getting redder in the next decade as well if the trend continues, followed by WI and ultimately MN in another generation.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
Yes
There is really little that is progressive about Appalachian Democrat politics.  This explains why progressives are so weak in states like Pennsylvania.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Jim Oberstar and Collin Peterson
Both were pro-life.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

Carl DeMaio for CA-52!


[ Parent ]
Good catches
but the overwhelming majority of Prarie Populists are pretty socially liberal: Bruce Braley, Tim Johnson, Max Baucus, Tom Daschle, etc.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
I wouldn't call Oberstar a praire politician
MN8 is a rust belt district and more similar to the blue collar areas of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio than it is to the Dakotas or Iowa.

Peterson is a good call, though.

Saint Paul (MN-4)  


[ Parent ]
My first thought was
what about Mark Andrews-remembering that Conrad defeated him in 1986. Then I remembered that Conrad switched seats in 1992, running for the seat of the late Quentin Burdick in 1992 instead of running for re-election to his seat as a way as he saw it of keeping a campaign promise to not run for re-election if the deficit was not cut by 80% during his term. I always thought that one was strange-how did running for the other seat allow him to keep his promise?

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
1972 Almanac of American Politics
I posted about this late last night so some people may have missed it.

I just got the 1972 "Almanac of American Politics," complete with maps and district profiles (just like the modern ones).

So, are there any 1960s post Baker v. Carr maps anyone would like to see?

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

Carl DeMaio for CA-52!


Pennsylvania


28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Also have the 2002 Almanac in hand
It's just stunning to me that a 51% Gore seat with all of Lackawanna County in it was comfortably represented by a guy as conservative as Don Sherwood. It's interesting to me that Lackawanna and Luzerne Counties were historically split up.

I'll post the 60s PA map tonight or tomorrow (don't have it with me at school).

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

Carl DeMaio for CA-52!


[ Parent ]
Maryland
nt

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
TN
actually a before and after picture might be nice there since its the poster child.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Class of 2006 gone
http://triblive.com/home/12949...

It is quite remarkable the class of 2006 has been completely wiped out in Pennsylvania.  

28, Republican, PA-6


wow
Yet today, only seven of 30 Democrats elected that year remain in office; Altmire is the only one of four remaining in Pennsylvania's delegation. In 2010, Republicans won back 63 House seats.

Talk about a fluke class. McNerney, Perlmutter, Braley, Loebsack, Yarmuth, Walz, Welch. Everyone else is gone.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
MS map
Messier than it needs to be.

The following two counties are very close to ideal population but split into multiple districts anyway. Split not needed for either VRA or partisan reasons.

Pearl River County: Within 1229 of ideal population but split in three parts. County is 83.8% White VAP. (This county went 79.7% McCain)

Lamar County: Within 1405 of ideal population and split in two parts. County is 78.4% White VAP. (This county went 77.4% McCain)

There's also lots of recrossed counties on the map. A couple of those might actually be needed for VRA, but several of those could be cleaned up without either violating it or changing partisan outcome.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


Does MS Have 'County Integrity' Rules?
If not, they may not care, and indeed it may be tradition to not worry about the county stuff.  

[ Parent ]
No not that I recall
as Mississippi always seem to be all over the place.  

[ Parent ]
There are no rules as far as I know, but
they care about counties. Partisanship often trumps that care though, and as long a sa county controls a district, even if the county is not whole, a lot of people stay happy.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
These lines seem largely based on the lines drawn post 2000
a bit too much so for my taste.
I'm not sure why they currently have something like 200 split precents under the old lines; the counties involved should have established some new precent boundaries years ago to eliminate those, adding the new precents where needed. (=

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
What are we looking at with regards to partisan split
32 Republicans and 20 Dems (15 black 5 white)? A net pickup of one seat?

27, IL-7, Fiscal Conservative

[ Parent ]
It'll be in my analysis.
You can't just know by eyeballing in MS. a few precinct swaps can change your result. Stay tuned.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
How do you guys deal with split precints in DRA?
I never know how to go about it.  

27, IL-7, Fiscal Conservative

[ Parent ]
Try to approximate.
You need to determine as well as you can which district has the majority of the precinct's residents. Assign the precinct to that district that has the largest share of residents.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
One of the VRA seats is held by Republican.
The linked article says that Buck Clarke's (R-Hollandale) seat, the new version of SD-22, is now 50.1% Black VAP. The old SD-22, they say, was 49.8% Black VAP. I've drawn the district, I think that they're wrong, but I can't approximmate the precinct splits in Madison County (they don't look very significant, but Clarke should get good numbers from suburbanites there). Needless to say, Clarke is a very strong candidate, since the district voted for Obama by a few points in it's old version and probably did in the new version, though my layout suggests that he may have improved by a few points to a fifty-vote Obama win (R+4). We shall see later whether the article was wrong. Drawing Clarke into the suburbs and (the very edges, in this case) could help him more as the decade rolls on and white suburbanites move further out.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Thanks
for posting stuff about the NC Congressional races. I have been itching for info on these and I look forward to the diary.  

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1



I know we will do more on NC
in the next week or so.  I might over the weekend ask everyone who they think will win.  Either today or over the weekend I appreciate any local information.

Right now the candidates are just names on paper to me. I do not have a feel for the local flavor so to speak.  That's why I suggested Coble would make the runoff as he has been elected to something.  That ususally means something in politics.  


[ Parent ]
Morning Thoughts
IN-Gov: I think that Pence just waltzes in. Gregg is no SOme Dude, but Pence is popular and is coming in on the heels of the popular current Governor.

NC-13: Any of these three would probably be good picks. Holding and Coble would cruise in the general, and Randall wouldn't have much trouble either.

NC-11: Do we want Hunt for experience or Wingfield for bench/leadership potential due to youth? I'm not sure.

NC-08: I just hope that this doesn't turn bloody. Kissell can probably still save himself if we throw him a rescue float.

NC-07: You guys already know my feelings on this from a preference side. I give Pantano a slight edge.

NC-09: Pendergraph has a good chance, but I wouldn't count out the state legislator.

Oregon R%egistration: Both parties are losing voters. I think that alot of Democrats who used to split tickets fairly often are leaving the party, but they'll still vote for the Democrat most of the time.

Mississipi State Senate: I'm going to do an analysis, but just eyballing it, it looks like State Senator Eugene Clarke (R-Hollandale), who currently holds down a district with a black majority in VAP, has been given a much safer seat.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)


SD-22
After plugging the district in, it looks like either the linked article is wrong, or the Madison County precinct splits are very significant. because Clarke's new seat looks like it's 44.1% Black VAP, not the 50.1% that the article claims. My version puts the district at R+4 (Obama wins by 50 votes), which is an improvement of several points over the current version of SD-22 that Clarke holds.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
The Violent Occupy Wall Street thugs are back
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

Thanks Elizabeth Warren for this movement.

27, R, PA-07.


I don't think that she started it.
SHe may take credit, but that doesn't mean that she should get it.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Hiss
We're giving her 100% of the credit.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

Carl DeMaio for CA-52!


[ Parent ]
Is that something...
Scott Brown is using as part of his message? if not should it be (once the Native American thing is completely milked of course)?

I say yes, in an ad with her saying she started it followed by video of violence. Too. Easy.

21-Cubano, R, CA-38
City Commission Vice-Chair, College Republican Club President


[ Parent ]
Warren
Give Elizabeth Warren's "heritage", perhaps we should be calling the occupiers "Warren's Tribe"

33, R, IN-09

[ Parent ]
16 year old occupiers in Tenafly, NJ
http://www.northjersey.com/new...

The youthful participants in an Occupy Tenafly rally at Huyler Park - after school had let out for the day - conceded that their hometown, with a per capita income of $126,000 (in 2010) and houses that sell for upwards of $1 million, was the unlikely site for their grass-roots protest movement.

And they kept it civil, avoiding the risk of arrest - "We're idealistic but we're not crazy," said organizer Sebastian Spitz, 16. "We decided to stick with social issues, because Tenafly is a fairly wealthy community and if we went with `We are the 99 perent,' it might not be as effective."  

But along with their high-tech phones, designer duds, musical instruments and sound systems, the kids brought an enthusiastic social conscience.

Facepalm. How lucky for them to be the kids of rich liberals.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
It's hard out here...
...for a trust fund baby.

[ Parent ]
Republicans Challenge AZ Leg Maps
What about the US House map?

http://www.courthousenews.com/...


From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

Carl DeMaio for CA-52!


I wish someone would step up
and challenge the congressional map. There was alot of talk, but I haven't seen anything done.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
There has been a flurry of lawsuits
in AZ

http://www.coshoctontribune.co...

There has been both federal and state lawsuits, apparently, against both maps.  As in other states, other then perhaps TX, I do not expect to see any changes to 2012 maps through judicial action.  Until after the 2012 elections that is.  There are several states that I could judicial actions later in 2012 that would impact post Nov 2012.


[ Parent ]
Do you
believe that the AZ congressional map will ultimately be upheld?

Republican Medical Doc from New York, NY

[ Parent ]
PA-12: What?
The NRCC paid for the spot, which will run for two weeks on Fox News in the Pittsburgh media market.

Fox News?

What are they trying to do, make sure that the "Only for Altmire" Republican voters in the North Hills don't pull the lever for Critz? They won't be even without this ad. This race is hopefully going to come down to Rothfus running up huge margins in the North Hills and holding Critz down enough in Beaver and Westmoreland Counties in order to nullify Critz's likely giant lead in Cambria County and his likely over performance in Somerset County.

Sealing the deal in the North Hills for Rothfus is probably their strategy here, I guess. I just don't think that many conservaDems in Beaver County or Cambria County are watching Fox News. Those are the voters (specifically in Beaver County) that Rothfus needs to charm, along with romping in the North Hills. Maybe conservaDems watch Fox News in metro-Pittsburgh, I guess.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

Carl DeMaio for CA-52!


[ Parent ]
Yes, and ConservaDems who will be swing voters in this election.


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Obviously
I know the conservaDems will be the swing voters in PA-12, but do they watch Fox News?

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

Carl DeMaio for CA-52!


[ Parent ]
Fox News is the most watched network
Most bang for your buck.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Got it
If the conservaDems in SWPA are listening to it, then it makes sense. I just wasn't sure what their preferred source of news is. Plus, Beaver and Westmoreland Counties are most important so I figured some local news buys there would have worked like a charm.

By the way. . . it's the most watched, but is that because any non-Republicans watch it or is it because the real leftists watch MSNBC and the googoo, faux-moderate "independents" (you know the type) who love to talk about compromise but then fawn over liberal ideas watch CNN?

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

Carl DeMaio for CA-52!


[ Parent ]
FoxNews Ratings
FoxNews at best pulls 3 Million viewers a night.  That makes it a very successful cable news network, but that means it reaches less than 3% of the voting population.  My guess is those watching FoxNews regularly are not undecided voters.  If the NRCC can keep the Romney voters voting GOP down ballot, then Rothfus should when this.  I would be targeting working white men who don't follow politics on networks like ESPN, History, etc... not FoxNews.

33, R, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Exactly my point
Those labor Dems are probably all Steelers fans (the Pirates suck too much to say that most Pittsburgh area residents are fans of the team). It would have been better to advertise on sports radio, local news in Beaver County, or some other network than to advertise on Fox News seeing as almost all Fox News viewers would vote for Rothfus in any case. I totally agree with your point.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

Carl DeMaio for CA-52!


[ Parent ]
way too early for that
ESPN viewers are far more likely to simply blow off such ads this far before an election, and several months before the NFL season starts for that matter.

I wonder how much of the district is covered in the media market. Certainly most of it, but I'm not sure Johnstown is included. Not that Rothfus will get any votes there anyway.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
Everything but Johnstown
Johnstown is the only area not in the Pittsburgh market, but I think there is overlap on most cable systems in eastern Westmoreland and Somerset.

This race will be won or lost far away from Cambria County though.  It will be won or lost in Beaver and Allegheny counties.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
The North Hills
I'm fairly certain the North Hills are not going to be voting for Mark Critz no matter what he does. I think this election comes down to Beaver County and that's why swamping local t.v. and radio news stations would have made so much more sense.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

Carl DeMaio for CA-52!


[ Parent ]
Not exactly
Critz is going to get at least 40 percent out of Allegheny County.  Specifically, the towns along the Allegheny River should give him a decent percentage of the vote.  The North Hills are not that Republican to prevent Critz from getting 40%.  If he can get within 15% I think he wins the district.  Beaver is the real wildcard.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
media buyers
Are going by numbers, and they do it for a living.  They know where to spend the money to get the most people in the demos they want for the best rate.  It's their job and how they get bonuses.  
In radio, we see the same thing.  Business owners say "I want to advertise on that station because it's my favorite," and you have to convince them that the people that will respond and actually give them results are over here on this station.  "I want undecided men so that means I should go on ESPN..." might seem like a good strategy, until you realize you are paying ESPN's high local rates and wasting a large percentage of that buy on teens and other people who don't vote at all.  

[ Parent ]
Media Buy
I'm excited about these bonuses you mention. I've never heard of giving bonuses to people in media when the client does well. How can I get one?

While you certainly can raise awareness of a campaign and set the narrative by advertising early, advertising beyond 6 weeks before an election (or 6 before early voting begins) is pretty much a waste of money. If you have enough money to do so, that's great, but you need to be able to sustain it.

When buying for a single congressional race, you have to measure how much of the buy will reach your target audience and how much will be wasted. Rather than buying the whole interconnect, you'll want to buy the head-ins that are exclusively in the market.

A small buy this early, especially one on Fox News, may be more about getting noticed than it is about winning votes. So your target audience is the media, not the voter.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Agree
This might be about raising money as well.  I am curious what FoxNews' demographics are.  I bet they have a decent number of donors.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Here's the real reason why
That's a very small buy, and it's not designed to move any voters. The big buys don't come until the fall, and those run on broadcast and basic cable and are targeted at Joe Q. Public. This buy is designed to catch the eye of Republicans (and Democrats) nationwide, to draw attention to the race. If you look at all the political sites today--The Hill, Roll Call, Politico, even DKE--they'll all have a blurb about the ad. It will get Republican donors to look at Rothfus, and drive a narrative that the seat is in play.

The NRCC did this with SC-05, ND-AL, and SD-AL in the spring of 2010, with small buys on Fox. With the Spratt district in particular, it really got the national pundits talking about Republicans targeting the seats.


[ Parent ]
I agree wholeheartedly.
I was pointing out why they chose Fox News for a small buy.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Third party voter registrars
Despite a generally liberal view on voting laws, I hate these guys.

Why? They mess up all the time, then people show up at the polls thinking they're registered when they're not. If the election department or the DMV makes a mistake, there's usually a paper record, so the voter can vote provisionally and still get counted. Not so with the third party guys. Their registration forms just vanish into the ether.

Here's what they should be permitted to do:

Camp out next to a post office or mail drop.
Give the voter a registration form.
Give the voter a pen.
Give the voter a stamp.
Let the voter fill out the form and drop it in the box.

Nothing more.  

30, Left leaning indie, MA-7


I agree
I am not sure how much easier it could get to register to vote.  

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Israel goes to general elections
The likeliest date seems to be September 4 though dates between late August and October 24 are thrown in the air. BenZion Netanyahu's death (Benjamin father, at age 102) slowed the elections train a bit but next week the final date will be decided. Personally I've expected autumn elections though it comes as a surprise for most.
I am more than willing to answer any questions and/or write a diary if there's a demand.
Prediction/polls: Likud gonna win a second term though its next government may very well be more secular/left wing.

Yes a diary on the situation would
be great.  When things become clearer?

I am wondering what Labor will look like?  Are they irrevelant as they have been a Likud partner?


[ Parent ]
Sure, when there's something concrete to talk about
Labour is actually doing quite well compared with the last elections (when it got 13 seats). Polls show it to be the strongest of the left parties with 14-18 seats. They were fired/resigned in January of last year so they aren't associated with the government as much and its leader Yechimovitc (ch as in Chaim or chanuka, tc as in beach) refused to be a part of the government even when Labour was in fact part of the government, she broke ranks. Kadima, however, is in dire straits.

[ Parent ]
Nevada

Rasmussen has Obama up in Nevada 52-44.  This appears to be the same sample that produced the Heller lead of 51-40.  

I am now more inclined to believe that Heller has moved out to a measurable lead against Berkely.  The poll also reinforces my view that Nevada is going to be a tough climb for Romney.    


April NV new registrations
3915-2277 D

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
MO-01: Nixon Throws Russ Under the Bus
Jay Nixon for Lacy Clay.

http://atr.rollcall.com/missou...

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

Carl DeMaio for CA-52!


McCaskill will be next
as being neutral in this race means you are against Clay and AA voters in st Louis.  

[ Parent ]
Tomblin not for Obama either
WV Democratic Party
I think the WV Mountain Party is now closer aligned to Obama than the WV Democratic Party

33, R, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Amazing Quote

This is a remarkable quote for a Democratic governor to make about the President, even one who is from West Virginia:

"President Obama has apparently made it his mission to drive the backbone of West Virginia's economy, coal and the energy industry, out of business," Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin said in an interview with the Charleston Daily Mail. "That will not only hurt thousands of West Virginia families, it will destroy the economic fabric of our state."


[ Parent ]
Lugar is going down in Indiana GOP Senate Primary AND rightly so...
From Howey Politics

The national media - fueled by an extremely questionable Wenzel Strategies Poll conducted on behalf of a Mourdock advocacy group Citizens United - is now writing Sen. Dick Lugar off. The floodgates opened on Tuesday when Roll Call, Politico and The Hill all published stories describing Lugar's probable defeat. The Hill even began speculating on Lugar's "K Street" career and included quotes from Richard Mourdock that he would like to see Lugar join the next Republican presidential administration. "I would love to see him use his foreign policy expertise and be there for whoever the next president is, whether it's Mr. Obama or Mitt Romney," Mourdock said.

It was followed today by the Washington Post's Wonkbook by Ezra Klein (" Lugar now looks likely to lose") and the New York Times' respected FiveThirtyEight blog by Nate Silver ("key Republican officials are certainly acting like it is Mr. Mourdock's race to lose"). The Wenzel poll was published last week and has been cited in the Washington Post, Roll Call, Indianapolis Star and number of Indiana newspapers which don't act like they know a credible survey from a push poll.

Incredibly, today's New York Times, which up until now had extremely rigid guidelines on the use of independent polling, joined in on the altering of perception. When Howey Politics Indiana asked Citizens United's Jeff Marschner for the Wenzel top lines - which reveal what questions were asked and in what sequence - I received three pages that began with "question No. 3" (see upper right). Citizens United blew off my request to see questions one and two, though WISH-TV's Jim Shella was reporting early last week of hearing a push poll.

This appears to be fueling a wave of reaction from Indiana Republicans attuned to Washington media that Mourdock is going to win the Senate race (see Mark Souder's column from the Fort Wayne Lincoln Dinner on Monday at left side of the page). Klein's story today notes "how Washington changes if Lugar loses." Silver explores the race between Richard Mourdock and U.S. Rep. Joe Donnelly. He writes, "The rule is that a poll commissioned by a partisan group exaggerates their candidate's standing by an average of about 6 points - sometimes more and sometimes less. By that measure, then, the Wenzel Strategies poll could be read as showing the race as more of a tossup." But it appears to be a departure from the Times' past guidelines that vets methodology and rejects polling methods such as robo-calling (which is why you don't see Rasmussen Reports polling in the Gray Lady).

A post-election story line may well be how a partisan poll fueled a perception that then became reality. What the national press has picked up on from Hoosier Republicans is that the momentum has turned toward Mourdock. There hasn't been any other credible survey data since the Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground Poll was published on April 5.

A critical question after the primary will be, when was the tipping point? And if that is, indeed, the case that Lugar loses, Citizens United and Mourdock may have pulled off the epic "fast one." Not only are we seeing the selling of a U.S. Senate seat with more than $4 million of outside money spilling into this race, we are also witnessing a continued decline of credible news media and the watchdog filters it once had. And, I might add, Hoosier Republicans might want to ponder not only Mourdock's hubris as a Lugar post-Senate career employment advisor, but how this "fast one" may have altered the winner of a U.S. Senate seat.

In the Indiana I grew up in, getting caught up in such a scheme was the source of embarrassment.

The most credible survey data will come exclusively to HPI subscribers on Friday morning with the second Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground Poll, conducted by Republican pollster Christine Matthews of Bellwether Research and Democrat pollster Fred Yang of Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group.


Suggestion: limit what you quote to avoid copyright violations
200 words is the usual "fair use" limit.

Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"

[ Parent ]
Lower Merion and Mitt Romney
This is why the upper half of Lower Merion Township (i.e. Gladwyne, Wayne, Villanova, and parts of Rosemont and Bryn Mawr) should have been given to Pat Meehan instead of being shoved in with West Philadelphia. Doing so would have ramped up his Obama percentage by all of less than half of a percent.

At ONE fundraiser in Gladwyne, Mitt Romney raked in a cool million dollars. The map makers were smart enough to keep Lower Merion money away from Schwartz's coffers, but seriously, they should have given the reasonable parts to Meehan to basically use as his campaign's bank. The rest rightfully should have gone to Fattah as a punishment for being a bunch of self-hating businessmen and doctors and other professionals who vote Democratic even though doing so directly harms their lifestyles and their businesses. Sigh

http://mainlinemedianews.com/a...

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

Carl DeMaio for CA-52!


LM Money
These people are donating to Republicans regardless of whose congressional district they're in. Likewise Allyson Schwartz is going to mine Lower Merion Democrats for contributions just as easily. Maybe some people will give to Fattah instead for a congressional race, but if Schwartz runs statewide the money will roll in.

Mitt will certainly be out here. Jerry Perenchio will host an event several events for him where the money will pour in. It doesn't matter that their district is so Democratic.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
LMT
Saying "I'm Jim Gerlach/Pat Meehan and I'm your Congressman, so please donate to me so I can keep on winning" is way more potent than saying, "I'm Pat Meehan from Drexel Hill and I'm a Republican, please donate to me" or saying, "I'm Jim Gerlach and I was once your Congressman, remember that? Please donate to me."  

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

Carl DeMaio for CA-52!


[ Parent ]
Doesn't matter
Many of these people give money to Republicans across the state in districts these people never visit even.  

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Environment
If people had a limited amount of money, then they are more likely to give to their congressman first and then maybe to others. Since no Republican can win their district they'll look elsewhere. They don't need a congressman to bring home the pork. They need one who can create a positive environment for business.


R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Romney brings in $1.5 million
http://www.philly.com/philly/b...

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
VA-Sen: (PPP) Kaine by 1
http://www.publicpolicypolling...

Yet another poll where Allen outdoes Romney handily. At a guess Allen will get ~3% more than Romney does in Virginia.

27, R, PA-07.


D+7
In 2004, 2006, and 2009 Republicans had a 3-4 point advantage in exit polling. I can't see a D+7 in Virginia unless we're going back to the 60's.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
well, right
It's probably the same sample as the Presidential poll.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Impossible!11!1
There's no WAY he's over-performing Obama, remember his Macaca moment!?1!?1?!?1!?
/snark.

This should be a very interesting race. I really hope it comes down to election day and Allen pulls it out by like 1%.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

Carl DeMaio for CA-52!


[ Parent ]
Interesting
The CW has been that Kaine will outperform Obama. Is there a decent chance that Allen outperforms Romney? This may suggest that Romney could lose Virginia but Allen could still win the senate seat.

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1



[ Parent ]
BS
How could conventional wisdom about George "Macaca" Allen be so wrong?

I guess I will go back to ignoring polls this far out after that Nevada doosey from Rasmussen.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
WI Marquette poll
Milwaukee, Wis. - With less than a week until the primary in the historic Wisconsin gubernatorial recall election, a new Marquette Law School Poll shows Tom Barrett leading Kathleen Falk 38 percent to 21 percent, with 8 percent for Doug La Follette and 6 percent for Kathleen Vinehout. In a June general election between Barrett and Governor Scott Walker, Barrett leads by one percentage point, 47-46, among all registered voters, while Walker leads by one percentage point, 48-47, among likely voters. Both results are well within the margin of error of the poll. Walker leads former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk 49 percent to 42 percent among registered voters and 49 percent to 43 percent among likely voters.

Looking ahead to the November election, President Barack Obama leads former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney 51 percent to 42 percent, a small change from the 48-43 matchup in March just prior to Romney's win in the Wisconsin Republican primary.

The Democratic primary margin has widened since the March 22-25 Marquette Law School poll, in which Barrett held 36 percent to Falk's 29 percent with La Follette and Vinehout at 8 percent each. A significant number of Democratic primary voters are still undecided, 19 percent in the latest poll, up slightly from 17 percent in March. Undecided voters were asked which candidate they lean towards. Including those leaning voters, the primary results become Barrett at 45 percent, Falk at 23 percent, La Follette at 8 percent and Vinehout at 8 percent, with 9 percent still saying they are undecided.

https://law.marquette.edu/poll...

26, Male, R, NY-10


Here's to
a large amount of undecided Democrats breaking to Falk at the last minute.

Saint Paul (MN-4)  

[ Parent ]
Or Republicans, perhaps
The "Fake Dem" movement never really took hold, but if the RPW wanted to they could make a last-minute push to get Republicans to vote for Falk. We know Wauke$ha will turn out.

[ Parent ]
DKE
Anyone who doesn't check out DKE often, but is interested in MN politics should check out this stunningly detailed county-by-county breakdown of Minnesota elections.

It's broken into two diaries found here:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

Props to user Mark27 at DKE for researching and writing them.

I'm hoping to soon get started on a similar county-by-county outline of Wisconsin which I'll post sometime before the Walker recall election.

Saint Paul (MN-4)  


Beyond Props
as the word obession comes to mind.  If I had to do a county by county analysis I would play out somewhere around Bledsoe county.  Great stuff. Of course sorting all of the counties by CD or senate districts could be his next task?

[ Parent ]
I might get around to a TN one this summer.


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
That would be cool
As I said, I'm hoping to do something breaking down WI before the recall although it will be more quant heavy and not have as thorough written descriptions.  

Saint Paul (MN-4)  

[ Parent ]
That would be great
to do on WI. I wonder after today's polling if Falk does not get a few GOP votes next week!!!!

[ Parent ]
I've been working on that off/on for years here
Eventually, I'd like to get my blog to be the database on Michigan politics on county/district. I'm probably at least 3-4 years away from finishing that.

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

[ Parent ]
AZ-9: Kristen Sinema, anti-war extremist
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballo...

But in the days and weeks after 9/11, as talk of retaliation reached a fever pitch, Sinema and others in Phoenix began organizing what would eventually become the Arizona Alliance for Peaceful Justice (AAPJ). The group's mission statement at the time called military action "an inappropriate response to terrorism" and advocated for using the legal system - not violence - to bring Osama bin Laden and others to justice.

I've said it before; we have another Darcy Burner here. This is of course not a highly liberal district.

27, R, PA-07.


Yep
Vernon Parker or Travis Grantham are capable of beating Sinema here. I hope she wins instead of the other guy (Cherny?) who seems much more moderate and non-threatening to swing voters.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
MO-Sen: New McCaskill ad
of the "attack ad attacking attack ads" variety:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


CT-Sen: McMahon up with a 60sec bio ad
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


I adore McMahon
I'll concede she hasn't a prayer against Murphy, but I'm not sure Shays does either. And, since I'm not over-the-moon about Shays to begin with, I'd almost surely vote for McMahon in the primary. I wish she wasn't running in such a blue state.  

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
IN-Sen:pro-Lugar PAC "Lunch Pail Republicans" has a new poll out
with Lugar up two (44-42) while that's maybe not exactly impressive it is in the sense that he's basically been written off as a complete goner - so it's rather impressive they can produce a poll with him leading at all.

Link

The poll was conducted by Mallegan Strategies.

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


Great article on the Paul strategy
David Weigel is probably the most knowledgeable reporter on the Paul movement, having worked for Reason in the past. http://www.slate.com/articles/...


libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04

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