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President Gallup: The daily tracking poll has Romney and the President tied. This poll has been consistently within a point or two for weeks now. North Carolina: WRAL has a poll that is showing the President ahead of Romney by 47-43. The poll does show that Romney will easily win next week's GOP primary. Virginia: PPP finds Obama ahead of Romney 51-43. This is a state the President won by 6% in 2008. That margin mirrored his national margin. So if you buy this poll either Obama is running better here than in 2008 or maybe Virginia is trending towards the Democrats. Considering the shellacking the Democrats got in Viriginia in 2009, 2010 and 2011 I doubt either is true. So I remain skeptical about this poll. Voter registration: This article suggests that a series of new laws could hinder the Democrats' efforts to register new voters. This subject can be arcane and hard to explain in 200 words or less. In the case of Florida's new laws. yes there are penalties for those who abuse the system by holding registrations for months. but you will also see people getting their voter cards quicker. There will be fewer duplicate registrations and more voters will actually have their cards in hand before they vote. So where some people see roadblocks to people being registered I see more certainty that when people fill out registration forms they actually quickly turned in. Governor North Carolina: WRAL also polled next week's Governor and Lt. Governor's races. McCrory is way ahead of his unknown foes and should easily capture the GOP nod. On the surface WRAL's poll showing Lt Gov Dalton ahead of former Congressman Etheridge by 32-23 nearly matches PPP's earlier one showing him leading 36-26. The crucial differences between the polls are twofold. 1st this current poll shows more voters are undecided. 2nd other candidates in this WRAL poll are getting 15% of the vote in it. Those two factors increase the chance Dalton could win but fall short of getting the 40% needed to avoid a runoff. Indiana: Yes there is also a primary for Governor next week in the Hoosier state. In a bit of a turnaround, however, there is no contest for either major primary as Congressman Mike Pence and former State House Speaker John Gregg are unopposed except by nuisance candidates. This is an open seat so usually primaries are the norm but this year both parties settled on their candidates very quickly. Senate There was a pair of polls from two pollsters who always seem to generate discussion here. Rasmussen Nevada: Heller leads Berkley in this poll by 51-40. This seems a bit of a stretch even with Berkley's ethical woes. PPP Montana: This poll shows Tester with a +5 lead over Rehberg. So between the margin and who is ahead it is a surprise to me. House Next Tuesday there is a series of primaries in North Carolina that could play a huge role in determining who controls the US House next year. North Carolina 13: This open seat features three top GOP candidates in Paul Coble, Bill Holding and Bill Randall. Whoever wins the Republican primary will likely be elected Congressman this fall. This is more of an introductory post on this race as we will do a preview diary next week. I do suspect Coble will make the runoff, but that is strictly a guess on my part. North Carolina 11: This article relates how three GOP candidates Jeff Hunt, Mark Meadows and Ethan Wingfield led the fundraising in this race. I suspect two of these candidates will face off in a runoff for the Republican nomination for this seat. North Carolina 8: Five GOP candidates are taking on Congressman Kissell in this redrawn seat. I think it is safe to say there will be a runoff. I am thinking Steen and Keadle are the top two candidates at the moment. North Carolina 7: This could be the race of the night next week. It is a one on one contest between the 2010 nominee for this seat Ilario Pantano and State Senator David Rouzer. Rouzer actually redesigned the 7th district to include his Johnston county home. It is very clear that one of these two men will advance to face Congressman Mike McInytre this fall. I am currently thinking that based on what Jesse Kelly did in AZ Pantano will win. North Carolina 9: Finally this seat is also open as long time Congresswoman Sue Myrick is retiring. This seat, however, almost certainly is going to stay Republican this fall. This site provides some information on all of the GOP candidates. There will almost certainly be a runoff to settle the winner of this race. Miscellaneous Oregon: The Secretary of State reports that in the last two years voter registration numbers have dropped by 4,000. The cutoff date to register to vote in time for the May 15th primary was last week. I do note that there are 800 more registered Republicans today in Oregon then there were two years ago. The Democratic party shows a 44,000 decrease in their numbers with the difference being made up by people stating a minor party or no party preference at all. Redistricting Vermont: The long simmering struggle to redistrict Vermont is finally over. I know everyone has been waiting for the legislative map to get done, but that day is finally here or is it? The plan passed with bipartisan support. Yet the state GOP has talked about the population deviations being too high so they may sue. There does not appear to be much if any partisan impact in this map. Mississippi: The GOP introduced their bill to redistrict the State Senate on Tuesday. Unlike Vermont which has been discussing and voting on their legislative redistricting bills since last June, Mississippi's bill will come up for a final vote today. Specific districts have been circulated for several weeks and apparently all the problems have been ironed out. The map creates several more majority AA seats and will also likely add to the GOP senate majority. So to be hip "it's all good" as far as I am concerned. Here's a map link. |
