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Red Racing Horses analyzes and discusses elections from a Republican-leaning perspective. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog. Please read our site Terms of Use.

~The RRH Moderators: BostonPatriot, Daniel Surman, GoBigRedState, Greyhound, James_Nola, Right Reformer, Ryan_in_SEPA, and Shamlet.

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Bonus Sunday Roundup and Open Thread

by: Right Reformer

Sun Apr 29, 2012 at 04:56:40 AM EDT


Welcome to a bonus roundup/open thread for Sunday, April 29th. 

Presidential news:

Obama: The President appears to have bounced up a little since last week, when Romney was leading several different national polls. Now Obama is tied or leading in the last 10 polls.

Correspondents dinner: I will give the President credit for being quite funny. And I was also surprised at the self-deprecating jokes about eating dogs when he was in Indonesia. "What's the difference between a hockey mom and a pitbull? A pitbull is delicious." I was impressed with Obama's ability to keep things -- even hot button issues -- mostly lighthearted.

Romney: On the other hand, Eric Fehrnstrom is saying Romney won't be "slow jamming the news" any time soon, unilaterally disarming the Governor from attempting to be a hipper candidate. Fehrnstrom doesn't rule out, however, an SNL appearance in the future for Romney.

Paul: Paul will be in Nevada next weekend for the state's convention. And so will I.

Senate:

IN-Sen: The Young Guns Network is targeting Richard Mourdock in the GOP primary, saying he wants to abolish the Department of Education and calling him extreme for that viewpoint. This is dangerous territory, folks. The American Action Network seemed to realize the same thing, deciding to pull its ads, lest it hit too hard on the eventual GOP nominee. And the 2008 presidential ticket is split, with McCain endorsing Lugar and Palin endorsing Mourdock. I think this is heading Mourdock's way folks.

Rubio:  Rubio voted no to reauthorize the Violence Against Women Act last Thursday. Ayotte and Portman, as well as 13 other GOP Senators, voted yes. Rubio said he wasn't a fan of the way money was being diverted away from domestic violence programs, but the easy headline is that he voted against a bill that protects women from violence, buying into the "war on women" narrative.

MT-Sen: The Rehberg campaign has sent RRH a private memo detailing their campaign strategy going forward against Senator Tester in November. We weren't given leway to publish the memo in full, but can paraphrase that Rehberg is going to hit Tester hard on Obamacare, Supreme Court Justices, bailouts, and local Montana issues like the Maelstrom Air Force Base, whose funding may be cut under the New START treaty.

House:

PA-12: With Mark Critz's victory, Cook has changed the race for this seat to toss-up, from previously being a lean Democratic hold. Keith Rothfuss, our candidate here, has the "one tough nerd' look going strong for himself.

Internship: An unidentified GOP House member is seeking summer interns, for those of you interested in being in DC this summer. Those with "solid pro-life beliefs" are encouraged to apply. Send resume, references, and writing sample to hillinternship11@gmail.com

Open Thread:

1. What can the Paul campaign accomplish by succeeding at winning delegates at state conventions? Assuming (safely) they can't overtake Romney to win the nomination, what does the Paul campaign gain by winning this part of the process?

2. Does Romney need to be seen as "cool" to combat Obama's perceived coolness? Should Romney take concerted efforts to be seen as more down to earth?

Right Reformer :: Bonus Sunday Roundup and Open Thread
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Romney
Not sure he can do much to appear "down to earth".  I think in order for Romney to win this election he has to make it about the Economy and why he could do better than Obama under the circumstances and in the future.

Romney has tried jeans, plaid shirts, eating corn dogs etc. And it doesn't seem to work, It's just not in his wheelhouse.  And thats fine, I don't hold it against him.  He just needs to have laser like precision on the economy (One of the reasons I think Portman would be a good pick for him).

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


Nice bonus diary!
Eric Cantor is trying hard to be hated and the is apparently succeeding.

To the questions:

1) Make noise and be heard. I have no sympathy for someone trying to overturn the actual caucus results where he lost in a blowout. Many Paulites only care about Paulism and don't care about the harm they inflict on the GOP party for which they don't care for.

2) As much as Obama needs to be seen as cool, Mitt has to be seen as a serious grown-up.
Obama's audience includes many people who thought that Kim Kardashian belonged at the WH dinner last night.  

25, Male, R, NY-10


Re: The Paulites
Just corroborating MosheM's #1 point: I was speaking to a libertarian-ish friend just earlier today. I say "libertarian-ish" because he's more of the Bill-Maher-type than the Ron-Paul-type. Anyway, he explained that even though he shares RP's views on most issues, he still wouldn't vote Republican in the General Election even if Ron Paul was the GOP nominee. This was a very educated, ideologically-motivated 40-year-old man who said that. So, not only are some of RP's supporters not pro-GOP, some of them are explicitly anti-GOP.

Age 43. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.

[ Parent ]
libertarian and Democrat
How can you be libertarian and a Democrat? The Democrats basic philosophy is that government is there to help people and that people must sacrifice something for the good of everyone. A libertarian wants as little government as possible.

I know that some libertarians like Democrat because they might legalize pot, but if that's your primary motivation than you're a pothead who says he's libertarian.

I put it very simply. Democrats believe marriage is between two people. Republicans believe it's between a man and a woman. Libertarians don't think government should recognize marriage at all. In places I disagree with the GOP, the Democrats are far worse.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Foreign policy, civil liberties, I assume.
I don't know any Democratic libertarians, but the one I do know is an extremely reluctant Republican who votes Libertarian most elections anyways because he's anti-Homeland Security Department, anti-War on Terror, anti-wars, anti-interventionism (you're getting the picture) he hates the patriot act virulently and he's pro-choice (as far as I can tell the 2nd amendment is pretty much the only thing keeping him in the party, before healthcare I thought I almost got him to switch).

So I could see a libertarian Democrat.

You have to admit that while the Democrats aren't exactly a peacenik party, most anti-war members of congress are Dems, and many Democrats I know (I'm one, actually) express borderline libertarian views on foreign policy of: end the wars, "pacifist" amendment to the constitution, generally anti-interventionist (post-Bush anyways), significantly cut number of troops stationed in europe, et. al. so on and so forth. Most members of congress who opposed the patriot act - likewise, Democrats. And as you mentioned Democrats are anti-drug war, and Obama is now the President who ended the Iraq war.

So I mean, what kind of libertarians are we talking about? It's such a broad and encompassing philosophy that I can easily envision a libertarian who sees Democrats as the less of two evils and encompassing a more "limited Government" - you have to remember that virtually all Democrats see Republicans as the intrusive big government party (as incredible as that probably seems to the conservatives here) so I could see it.

A libertarian Democrat would be significantly be out of the mainstream of American libertarianism however, so in that sense it would certainly be surprising - but not unbelievable.

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
but how many in that type
(The wouldn't support Republican in the general election) show up in a Republican caucus?

Also, I'm not sure how other states are, but here in Missouri, the bylaws state that you have to swear to be a Republican to vote at the caucus. Now we don't have party registration in Missouri, so its normally not enforceable, but back in 08 when a few St Charles delegates were found to have voted in the Libertarian primary for president that year, their credentials were stripped by the district credential committee.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
Bill Maher's no libertarian
He's a gun grabber who backs PETA. If there's one issue along with the drug war that unites libertarians, it's the 2nd amendment.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

[ Parent ]
He's a libertarian
the same way Chomsky is, a (small-c) communist. Translated: If everyone thinks the "right" way no laws are necessary.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Yeah, I was about to say
if he found the idea of a libertarian Democrat hard to swallow Chomsky was a self-described "libertarian socialist"

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
Oops, thought you were talking about your friend, not Maher.
I clicked to this comment from the bar on the right side of the front page, my mistake.

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
Same difference
the point is that left-libertarianism, while fringe in modern America, does exist.

I think Mike Gravel is probably the only notable American politician that would qualify as a left libertarian.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
Short history lesson
The first use of the word libertarian was in philosophy to describe those who believed in free will. In politics, it was first used by French communist anarchists. It was not until the 1930s that you saw the word libertarian to describe the constituency we know today. Most of the world still uses libertarian to describe communist anarchist, unless they borrowed the term from America. Interestingly, Latin America is something of a battleground for the term, with countries with American influence (Costa Rica, Panama) use libertarian in its small government, individual liberty definition (Great Britain has begun to use it too), while the rest of Latin America, particularly those with strong leftist movements (Venezuela, Cuba, Bolivia) use it to describe the communist anarchist tradition.

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04

[ Parent ]
Weekend Thoughts
Paul. I'm glad that you'll be there.

IN-Sen: WTF? This is just wasteful of campaign funds, and frankly, that position being attacked is not one hat I totally disagree with. Cantor, I love you man, but you should have quit while you were ahead in meddling in primaries.

Rubio: Wait. They're only highlighting the vote because Rubio voted 'no,' and Rubio is well-known?

MT-Sen: I'm glad to see that RRH is making it's way in the world.

1. The Paulites can be more proud of themselves for having a bigger share of the delegates. They also may try to influence the platform.

2. No and no. Romney should play his 'vanilla seriousness' to Obama's 'fun cool.' If it's done correctly, Obama will look less serious, and Romney will win some wavering suburbanites. Romney can be seen as 'down to earth' by being serious, but he'll never be completely 'plebeian.'

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)


Thanks
I'll be there in my official capacity and not on behalf of RRH, so I'll be very sensitive to that when reporting back after the weekend is over. Hopefully we can mitigate the damage the Paul people are going to try to do (sorry, Imperial :))

Indiana is such a waste. I'd like a free ride with Lugar but it's clearly not going his way. Time for Lugar to let go and accept the inevitable. And using the "extreme" narrative is such a dangerous precedent for GOP nominees, particularly since the Dept. of Education isn't exactly popular among many GOP candidates these days, ahem Perry.

On Montana, I'm glad we're trusted enough to follow the rules and not forward it on to Dem operatives. These memos often find a way of leaking.

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)


[ Parent ]
No worries
I have been friends with plenty of folks here in Minnesota who are big Romney and Hegseth backers.  

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04

[ Parent ]
On the Romey Cool thing...
I would take a page from the 1977 Ed Koch campaign whose slogan was "after 8 years of charisma and 4 years of clubhouse why not try competence for a change"? If I was Romney's team my go to answer on this would be "Romney's not cool he's competent".  

Romney needs to attack the 'celebrity' obama
If I'm Mitt, I'll be going after the 'cool' factor. "I'm running for President, not American Idol. I'm not here to be cool. I'm here to get to work fixing the executive branch as I've fixed the Olympics." I'd also subtlety go after his mannerisms, like his nose always seemingly up in the air. He comes off as a weak snob to a lot of people. Unfortunately, Mitt doesn't matchup as well as say Tim Pawlenty does in that type of scenario.  

As for Ron Paul, they can actually accomplish a lot. Not much from delegates to nominating convention, but they can make a lot of headway with party leadership after the elections.

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


Romney attacking other people for being a snob
isn't going to go over well.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Montana
That's supremely cool. I hope the memo was pretty boring to read though, because Rehberg's best strategy here is to not do much of anything. He's already ahead and a couple good Obamacare soundbites plus a few pix of Tester and Obama being chummy is all that's needed to seal the deal.

R - MD-7

Not boring, but nothing groundbreaking
The thing about the Maelstrom Air Force base was the only thing I couldn't have predicted would be in it.

Again, all I can do is paraphrase it, but it goes through polling, the history of Rehberg's elections, and the narratives it thinks will work well in the fall. Very simple stuff, which is probably better in case it does get leaked by others (I wasn't the only person who got it).

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)


[ Parent ]
What is amazing
Is that all the these people at the top are Dems, would harp the Buffett rule, all the while they pay less taxes than any of us and hire dozens of lobbyists for that purpose.
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2012...

This article on Apple is fascinating.  

25, Male, R, NY-10


Are we sure that they're all Dems?
I guess that it would depend on your definition of 'at the top.'

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
my friend's dad is a VP
and a Republican (as well as a Cubano, since CoD may be interested in that tidbit)

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Viven Los Cubanos!!
I'm assuming this friend doesn't go to your university since no republicano in their right mind would send their child there lol

20-Cubano, R, CA-38
City Commissioner, College Republican Club President


[ Parent ]
nope, he attends Duke


Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Not much better.
Duke is basically the Berkley of the South (however much they may claim to be the Harvard of the South). My great aunt, the one who knows Jeanne Shaheen, went to Duke. She met Jeanne while working on Gary Hart's first Presidential campaign.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
McCain did attack him on being the American Idol candidate
It seemed to have some effect right around the convention. I think it is one of the stronger lines of attack. Obama is not serious about the job especially shown by his presence in popular culture institutions instead of being a serious individual.

28, Republican, PA-6

That was a very effective ad
So effective it was accused of being a race dog whistle because Britney Spears and Paris Hilton were white women being contrasted with the black Obama. Ridiculous allegation.

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)

[ Parent ]
wow, really?
If I could have my pick of any White woman, Paris Hilton would be nowhere on my top 1,000 list.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
You don't remember?
4 years ago this was a big hullabaloo.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)


[ Parent ]
I don't remember the race card being played there
Keep in mind I was not even 16 years old then.  I followed the election, but not super intensely like I've followed the 2010 and 2012 cycles.

I do remember the celebrity ad.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Paul Wins LA Caucuses
http://www.marketwatch.com/sto...

His delegates won in districts 1, 2, 5, and 6. District 4 was split between Romney delegates and delegates from the conservative slate, which had pledged to support Santorum. These aren't RNC delegates though. These are just delegates to the state convention who will elect the delegates to the RNC.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


Ridiculous if true!
System needs to be abolished!
I mean, he got 6% in the primary.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
the reported results ring true to me
LA is a state on the Republican side that has some of the delegates by primary and others by caucus.

This is sort of like Texas Democrats which awards some of their delegates by primary and others by caucus.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
In Mass Yesterday
We had caucuses to select the 27 District Delegates, who are "pledged" to Mitt Romney.

Known Ron Paul supporters won 17/27 district delegates...

This looks like a growing problem for the GOP. There is little enthusiasm by the party regulars for the "process" (not untypical), and a small, but very organized group of Ron Paul supporters are hijacking an antiquated part of the nomination process.

I've been told their votes at the convention are "baked in the cake". But I'm not sure I'm comfortable with my state, which gave Romney over 70% of the vote, being represented by Paul supporters, many of whom are being told by their fellow Paul supporters on the Paulist websites to ignore the rules, and boo Romney at the convention.  

Baker '14
R, MA-3


The system must be overhauled
So a tiny minority won't hijack a party.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
this might be repeated in more states



42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
This kind of stuff is dangerous
It's all fun and games unless Paul actually starts getting close to a majority. Then what? Hijack the convention to the surprise of 99% of the people who were expecting Romney.

I like that in practice small groups can do a lot of work for a party, but negating hundreds of thousands of votes is bad for the party structure overall.

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)


[ Parent ]
Not really
That would be so far beyond awesome that I'm sure it's mathematically impossible..

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
99% of the job is just showing up
If you find your local unit has been taken over by a group and don't like it, you should show up to the regular meetings throughout the year and urge your friends to do the same.


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Not to be cynical to my own cause
But I don't see our forces getting a majority at the RNC. That would require a lot more sweeps of states rather than split delegations.

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04

[ Parent ]
You don't win if you don't show up
A lot of people are bored with the procedures, but those who master the procedures and organize are those with the power.

If people don't show up to their party events, they shouldn't complain if they don't like the results. Swing voters with party leadership positions usually back those who show up and put in work.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
answers
#1 Paul accomplishes having Paulities taking over some state party apparatus.

#2 The more important thing is for Romney is be real and not seen as fake.


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


Ray Gricar (attn: Ryan)
Ryan,
Was Ray Gricar, the missing former Centre County DA, ever considered a possible candidate for higher office (than the Centre County DA job)? I'm just curious.

For those of you who have no idea whom I'm talking about: http://www.pennlive.com/midsta...


Paul delegates
They won't get Paiul nominated, but I'm worried that they might try to influence the official platform.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

on the platform
As long as they (Paulites) try in influence the official platform BEFORE the convention (away from news coverage), I'm ok with it. Same goes to the other groups.

I would just hope to avoid a floor flight at the convention over the platform under national coverage.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
These will be hardcore Paul supporters.
There's no telling what could get into the platform. For example, they might push for a fed audit plank, but they might also push for a pit legalization plank, or maybe a plank about the gold standard (I don't want to make change with tweezers once the Fed is abolished lol). Heck, they might push for something in the realm of black helicopters. It's worse if it's onscreen, but offscreen shenanigans are still shenanigans.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
there's a difference between discussing and adopting them
Some memories from 04 & 08 are coming back ...

After all delegates are selected, there will be a committee appointed that deals with the platform. Its members will be roughly proportional to the overall delegation.

(For this purpose they will likely assume that the delegates that are supposed to be bound to a candidate really are)

The presumed nominee and/or someone on the staff will also meet with the committee.

So they discus them, and likely vote the above list down.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
It'll look forced and unconvicing if Romney tries to emerge "cool"
I don't even think an SNL appearance is a grand idea, in fact, it surely blunts the blow of any attack on Obama's pop culture celebrity.

Romney's persona, while uninspiring and dull as dishwater, is one of great competency and dependably and, no matter how hard they try, the Obama camp will never convince the public he's an extreme, ideological right-winger. You don't want to share dinner and drinks with Romney, but you'll surely call him up over Obama if you want a particular problem fixed.

It's Romney's relative lack of baggage that allows 2012 to be a pure referendum on the president and gives the GOP a real shot at a takeover. I think Obama's popular vote percentage will, give a point or two, mirror his approval rating.  

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


Problems Fixed
Well I think most Republicans would want Romney to fix the problems, but not everyone.  I certainly wouldn't.  

This is not a diss or meant as insulting but I really don't think Romney understands the problems people like me go through.  That doesn't mean he is disqualified from being President, but I personally (And others I know) would not trust him to fix issues we care about.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
and you would trust Obama?
whose solution to everything is more handouts to push our country into bankruptcy?  

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!


[ Parent ]
Trust
I don't agree with what you said at all and I trust Obama more on those issues yes.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
A Democrat and a Republican disagree on policy issues?
Unheard of. :)

Come on guys, it's Sunday. Let's avoid this getting into policy.

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)


[ Parent ]
No problem
It is really nice in New York today after all.

Enjoying one of my last Sundays before (hopefully) becoming a homeowner with much more responsibility.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
Romney can't be "cool"
certainly not in the same way Obama is. He shouldn't try either. I suppose one SNL appearance wouldn't be too bad. But presidential candidates who try to be somebody they aren't always end up looking silly. Think Dukakis riding in the tank or Kerry going hunting.

42, R, NE-1.

Irony
One of many ironies is that Romney is more "Kerryesque" than Kerry ever was, in both his background and in his personality. Of course, what ultimatly matters is what translates through the media prism, and I think in this regard Romney's awkwardness actually helps a bit. It's tough to think of someone as 'bumbling' and 'elitist' all at the same time...

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Both Romney and Kerry both blundered the 2nd Amendment badly
What Romney needs to say on gun control is this, no more no less.

"As governor of Massachusetts I signed a gun ban. You all know it. I did so because Massachusetts is a state that has long supported gun control and demanded it of me. I also know that what is popular in one state isn't always right for another state and will not sign any federal gun bans that get to my desk. Let Massachusetts be Massachusetts, and Wyoming be Wyoming"

He shouldn't try and be something he isn't. John Kerry's hunting didn't work as anybody knows you don't craw on your belly to hunt deer, and you aren't pro-2nd Amendment when you support bans on 30-30 ammunition as both he and Obama did.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
Romney has already said as much
He was working with a heavily liberal Democratic legislature in Massachusetts regarding gun issues. He's not going to touch or advance any gun control as President, thats off the table. Obama's appointed 2 Supreme Court Justices that voted down the 2nd Amendment, Romney will appoint the right people. I think pro gun people only have one choice in this election.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Every comment is about Ron Paul!
I'm in Paulbot heaven.

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04

Other states
Today the AK GOP elected Paul supporters as Chair and Co-Chair after Joe Miller and his allies allied themselves with their camp, but the old chair transferred all $100k controlled by the party to a local Republican group before the new leadership won. No word on national delegates yet.

http://www.alaskadispatch.com/...

Paul delegates also won several national delegates out of congressional districts in Oklahoma the last few weeks.

More on Nevada. Basically the Paul campaign is angling to have 65% there. http://t.co/Gj4nk6GB

In Texas we (Paul supporters) are also organizing, with mixed results from recent senatorial district caucuses.


libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04


Armageddon coming
If the new chair pushes for Paulites in every position all the while coming in third even in the caucus, let alone primary, Ds will start to thrive in Alaska when a big part of the GOP defects.
I would vote for a moderate AK D over a Paulite in every election.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
SMH
If the establishment Alaska "Republicans" want to keep on acting and sounding like Southwestern Pennsylvania Democrats, i.e. begging for federal pork and spending away, maybe they (and those who support their big government policies) should reconsider their partisan affiliation. Republicans who spend like Democrats and won't agree to make serious cuts are a detriment to the party as they drag down the party's message of fiscal responsibility and meaningful cuts in order to grow a prosperous economy.

Alaska is a Republican enough state for the GOP there to still win statewide elections with a more fiscally conservative leadership. There is also deep seeded hate for the federal government in many Alaskans' minds. Even with a more fiscally conservative platform, Alaska should still in all likelihood vote Republican. Keep in mind that the GOP controlled US House banned earmarks, meaning its beloved grand porker Congressman can't bring home the bacon anymore, and I've yet to hear of any backlash in Alaska. Even if Alaskans aren't willing to vote Republican without pork and a big government agenda, oh well, that's only three electoral votes lost. Shiver me timbers!

Alaska likely did need a lot of federal money back in its infancy, but seriously, it can't be on the federal dole forever. It has plenty of natural resources that could be used to make it a far more self sufficient state.


[ Parent ]
You are pretending
That Paulism, not to mention libertarianism has anything to do with AK GOP being more fiscally conservative.
Conservative R = one thing, Paulite = a whole different thing.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
You caught me!
Yes, I'm pretending that Paulites, known for being some of the most fiscally conservative Republicans, are more fiscally conservative than the Alaska GOP establishment, notorious for pork and big spending. Paulites obviously love pork and big spending more than Alaskan Republicans do. I'm also pretending that Paul is more fiscally conservative than notorious porkers and big spenders in Don Young and (the late) Ted Stevens.

---

I'm not even saying this as a Paulite. I'm saying this as someone in the Toomey wing of the GOP (At this point, I consider my views to align fairly well with the views of someone like Pat Toomey's). The Toomey and Paul wings of the GOP are unquestionably two of the wings of the party most focused on budget cuts and fiscal restraint. If Don Young is as fiscally conservative as Toomey and Paul, well, by golly!


[ Parent ]
Again
You are ignoring the other parts (most parts) of the Paul platform.

I wish fiscally conservatives would take over the AK GOP, but that doesn't mean libertarians. And yes, this wing of the party got a distant third in a caucus. Not even a primary. It will tear the GOP apart from within when a tiny minority takes over the majority function over the will of the masses.  

25, Male, R, NY-10


[ Parent ]
As a state party
His foreign policy views don't even matter, so I'm no sure why you are so against his supporters pushing for smaller government. If you want big government at a state level, feel free to become a democrat.  

27, IL-7, Fiscal Conservative

[ Parent ]
Not even discussing foreign policy
Next up on the AKGOP platform could be legalization of pot.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
+1,000
These state party officers will be around for years. This could really hurt us down the line. The Paulists are trying to make one last push before they're uniting force, Ron, isn't around to unite them anymore.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
That is beside my point
Of opposition to a small minority overtaking the majority.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Promise me that you guys won't disrupt the RNC.


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
On the topic of austerity
The bottom seems to have fallen out of the UK economy over the last month, which has been disappointing given that the UK actually largely weathered the initial 2009 recession quite well.

Its a fairly bad time as well because local elections are this week as well as the London Mayoral election. We should hold that given that Labour is running an out and out racist and marxist, but that will likely be the only piece of good news. UKIP is now polling in the double-digits, while Labour has been leading by 10 or more in recent polls despite its left-wing leader.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


PA-08
Ryan,
If/when Fitzpatrick retires after three terms (as he said he will), who do we have who would be a strong recruit to replace him?

I wonder if
LG Cawley would be interested or even be a good candidate?  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
If history is a guide
the 2018 Gov nomination will be worthless, so I'd probably jump at PA-8 if I were him.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
On the bright side
Tim Holden and Jason Altmire are out the way.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Still McCord and Schwartz to deal with
either one is more than capable of winning statewide.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Not really
I remain highly skeptical of any Democrat from SEPA winning a contested primary anytime soon.

Schwartz has passed on several offers to run for statewide office.  She is the second highest ranking member on the Budget Committee and has taken some pretty controversial economic stances that are probably too conservative for the Democratic primary including supporting some form of Social Security reform and tax cuts for the rich.  She is also getting kind of old as well.  McCord will go in 2014 or not.

I actually think that the Democrats might be tempted to run a county executive again.  Rich Fitzgerald is probably not as big of a loser as Onorato.  


28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
Color me skeptical
Exactly what opportunities has Schwartz passed up? 2010-Gov doesn't count because it was pretty obvious a fair ways out that no Democrat was going to win that year.

McCord would be perfectly rational to wait; no PA Governor has been seriously challenged for re-election since Thornburgh and I can't believe Corbett is controversial enough to break that pattern. That leaves 2016-Sen and 2018-Gov as his realistic options. And with McCord's money that primary may not be seriously contested anyway.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
County officeholder or state legislator
Every Republican since WWII has been a state legislator or countywide officeholder in that district.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Not a fan of Redstate
but I think a quote from there defined Cantor perfectly:

"The real irony here is that Young Guns was created to "chart a new course for the center-right movement and the House majority."  Lugar is neither new, center-right, or in the House!"

Walker/Martinez 2016


Not to mention Lugar
being neither Young or pro-gun.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
That's a good one...


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
+1
n/t

Walker/Martinez 2016

[ Parent ]
Best comment of the week


Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
@Ryan
While working on a PA mapping project, I discovered that at least one PA school district crosses county lines! Is this a common sacrilege in PA?!?

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

SOTS
What are you working on? I already plugged in the Senate map.

[ Parent ]
It's a special project.
It's going to take a while, and except for 270, who already knows about it, I don't want to tell anyone about it until it's done, at least not on site.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Here in MO
I think the Jefferson City school district might cross the county line.
But that's because the city itself does.
(Almost all the population is in Cole, but a tiny bit of the city is in Callaway county)

Also, in St Louis County, the school district boundaries have little relationship to the city boundaries. (There's a large number of cities split between two school districts)

The fire districts also have little relationship to either the city lines or the school boundaries.

(As to what the cities do; in many cases, they have local police, but a few of them contract that out to a neighboring city or the St Louis County Sheriffs department and their sole purpose is local control of zoning.)

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
Happens in NJ as well
Because the districts are created and funded through municipalities, not Counties.  West Windsor/Plainsboro is one such district (Mercer/Middlesex Co)

[ Parent ]
Very common in the midwest
County lines have little to do with school districts in this part of the country. I know that's quite different than most Southern states, school districts are done at the county level.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
Yep, same in MN
In MN counties have no say on school districts.  Off the top of my head, the White Bear Lake ISD is spread over three counties (Anoka, Ramsey, and Washington).  The Maplewood school district is split about 50/50 between Washington and Ramsey.

ISD's don't follow city lines either, really.  For example, Hugo is split three ways between the White Bear, Mahtomedi, and Flake districts.  Woodbury is split between South Washington, Maplewood, and Stillwater districts.

So yea, in MN the independent school districts (ISD's) are, well, independent of counties and cities.

Saint Paul (MN-4)  


[ Parent ]
Not uncommon here either
Then again, counties mean next to nothing in New England.

[ Parent ]
Very common in Michigan
Counties are very strong here, with only a handful of cities crossing into multiple counties (Holland, Lansing, East Lansing, Northville)

However school districts are a different matter. My county of about 180,000 people has five districts "based" in the county, but 13 districts based on other counties have territory in my county. My township and three of my neighboring townships each have three school districts in their borders.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
All of these responses are making me shudder.
In Tennessee, state law gives counties the responsibility for educating through the high school level. Even if a municipality crosses county lines (very unusual), it's residents are under the school boards of counties that it is in.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
I'm curious as to why it really makes a difference
I don't know that one way or the other makes a whole lot of difference. I'm actually somewhat familiar with Tennessee's way of doing it as I have a good friend from college that teaches in Wilson County Schools(and taught in Rutherford County Schools before that). I also had a friend from college from Hendersonville who told me that having all of Sumner County in the same system caused problems there because the southern part of the county is suburban while the northern part of the county is very rural-thus decisions often came down to battles between the two parts of the county.

I know Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina and maybe some others have a similar system. All other states I believe school districts can and often do cross county lines.

42, R, NE-1.


[ Parent ]
It's a community thing.
Yes, we have municipalities, but we have unincorporated areas as well, and the county, even if it's got a rural/urban or rural/suburban (or in Shelby's case, urban/suburban) divide, it's still a community. Everything is based around the county. Sans zoning, the county makes all of the local ordinances that really matter, and everything is run on that level.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
I suppose that has something to do with
how strong county governments are. In Nebraska and most of the Midwest/Great Plains, county governments aren't as strong as they are in some places. They are kind of in the middle between those of primarily southern states(although Maryland has the strongest) and New England(non-existent). I know in Nebraska, counties only have taxing and administrative authority(zoning, courts) and do not have home-rule power(i.e they can't pass their own ordinances). Counties exist primarily to provide services such as law enforcement, roads, public health services, etc. and to keep birth, death and marriage records and to administer elections. With some exceptions, particularly in the sparsely populated western part of the state where there are some counties with only 1 or 2 towns in them, people don't have very strong identification with their county. It's more of a geographical classification than a real community.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
primary responsibility in MO given directly to the school districts
With the state board of education having direct oversight.

When a district fails, its taken over by the state, where they'll try to get it back in compliance.

As a last resort, the district would be dissolved and forcibly handed over to neighboring school district(s).

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
Girls Gone Wild, Mark Pryor, & Joe Francis
SC-7 Update Democrats
Myrtle Beach attorney Preston Brittain outraised favored state Rep. Ted Vick last quarter and now is about even in money. He recently received the endorsement of the Mayor of Florence, SC. Brittain is running to Blue Dog Vick's left. Expect both these two in a Democratic runoff, with Brittain having the momentum as of late.
http://www.prestonbrittain.com/

SC1-Charleston

North Carolina unlikely to go for Obama
same as I have been saying.
http://www.rollcall.com/issues...

SC1-Charleston

Good
But Obama has been doing OK in polling in NC so far.  

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
couple points here
1. Rothenberg apparently hasn't read Nate Silver's analysis about how state level unemployment doesn't matter in Presidential elections, only national unemployment does.

2. I don't think anybody's going to think "Bev Perdue sucks, therefore Obama sucks, even though I have experienced Obama's Presidency for four years already."  Obama will win or lose on his approval ratings, in NC and elsewhere.

3. I agree the scandal involving the party chair is inopportune and a big distraction and could hurt the party infrastructure/GOTV

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
State level unemployment rate
Of course it matters, the national unemployment rate doesn't speak to North Carolina, North Carolina's unemployment rate does. If North Carolina's rate is 12% and its 8% nationally, I guess everyone in NC just pretends its 8.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
it's not my analysis, it's Nate's
It seemed counterintuitive to me as well, but he showed it pretty clearly.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Nate Silver
Nevertheless, there is no overall relationship between Mr. Obama's state-by-state approval ratings and statewide economic performance.

Some of the numbers even point in the opposite direction: Mr. Obama's approval ratings are holding up better in states where the economy is worse, and vice versa.



[ Parent ]
Uh, I'd Be Remiss If I Didn't Point Out...
...That he's talking about polling rather than actual election results.

IOW, I don't think Silver's proven anything until we look at state-by-state unemployment and the actual election results (vs. 2008).  


[ Parent ]
Basically, It Comes Down To...
Do you believe Obama's going to win more states than last time? Or less?

If you think Obama's going to do better than last time, then clearly NC is in the bag.

But if you think he's going to do worse than 2008, then it's only less likely that he'll hold IN than NC.

So, if Obama's going to do worse, you've got to figure than NC is gone for him.

(And, FTR, I doubt NC has changed demographically in any significant way since 2008. IOW, no, I don't think NC has substantially "trended Blue" in the last 4 years...)  


[ Parent ]
Do you think then
that the states will fall by the margin Obama won them in 2008?

[ Parent ]
To a First Approximation, Basically, Yeah (nt)


[ Parent ]
No
Indiana will fall before North carolina, unlike in 2008, when North Carolina was closer than Indiana. But after Indiana, North Carolina is next.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Well
I have no idea why they're coming here, considering the doom and gloom portrayed by Rothenberg, but NC has the nation's 3rd-highest in-migration rate. What this means from an electoral standpoint is that North Carolina has over 10% more registered voters than it did at this point in 2008.

That's fairly significant. And, fwiw, the Democratic percentage of two-party registration is 58% vs. 57% at this point in 2008.

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
Might I add
The top 10 states of origin for migrants to NC are: FL, NY, NJ, MI, OH, PA, CA, VA, MD, CT. That suggests NC's electoral demographics are indeed changing.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Agreed on #2, but
while I'm not sure if the publicizing of the state rate matters, how economically depressed the state is should factor into the election results. In other words, the published state rate doesn't matter in and of itself, but if a state is very economically hurt, and if it also happens to lean right anyway, Obama should do a bit worse there. I'm not expecting California to go for Romney, but people out of work are people out of work.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
NC Job Losses & Polling
There's a good reason why North Carolina's unemployment rate isn't affecting Obama's poll standings. That's because North Carolina job losses are concentrated in four areas.

1) Public sector job cuts, by far, and these people blame the GOP legislature.

2) Financial services, and these people already vote overwhelmingly Republican, either because they believe the fiction that the GOP is better for the economy or because the GOP tends to favor policies that line their pockets.

3) Heavily minority areas in the Coastal region, and these people blame the GOP congress and the GOP legislature.

4) The heavily GOP foothills (think Foxx and McHenry's old districts) and the GOP vote is already maxed out in that region.

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
"the fiction that the GOP is better for the economy "
Really? Maybe on liberal sites, but not here...

And you mention 2 and 4 are already Republican.  Well 1 and 3 are already Democrat "maxed out".


[ Parent ]
Warning
Come on man. Clearly designed to stoke the fires and to be pro-Democratic in a partisan way. Your non-partisan comments are very valued here.

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)

[ Parent ]
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