Red Racing Horses
Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?


About

Red Racing Horses analyzes and discusses elections from a Republican-leaning perspective. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog. Please read our site Terms of Use.

~The RRH Moderators: BostonPatriot, Daniel Surman, GoBigRedState, Greyhound, James_Nola, Right Reformer, Ryan_in_SEPA, and Shamlet.

Problems logging into your account? Inside information? Complaints? Compliments? E-Mail us at: redracinghorses@yahoo.com. We check it often!

RRH's 2014 General Election Preview Series:

Part 7 - Senate

Part 6 - Eastern Governors

Part 5 - Western Governors

Part 4 - Northeast/South House

Part 3 - Midwest/West House

Part 2 - Row Officers

Part 1 - Legislatures and Local

The Current RRH Race Ratings:

Senate

Governor

House

Row Officers


Afternoon Political Roundup May 2nd, 2012

by: rdelbov

Wed May 02, 2012 at 17:00:00 PM EDT


President

West Virginia: This poll finds Romney leading the President by 15 points. This poll also shows stunning leads for Democrats Manchin and Tomblin in their races for Senate and Governor. 

Governor

Wisconsin: This new poll from Marguette U shows a very tight race between Governor Scott Walker and Mayor Tom Barrett. Walker leads by 1% among likely voters. The poll also shows Barrett with a double digit lead over his closest primary foe former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk. That primary will be next Tuesday with the recall of Walker set for June 5th. Doug La Follette. I am still wondering how to work Doug La Follette into this post. Should I mention his 8% primary polling number? Or should I mention his name is La Follette and not LaFollette? Or perhaps I should wonder why he is in this race?

Senate 

Connecticut: Susan Bysiewicz vows to continue her effort to secure the Democratic nomination for US Senate. The Gov, Lt Gov and most of the political establishment have endorsed Congressman Murphy but Ms Bysiewicz is not giving up. She passed up a couple of winnable races in 2010 and her timing seems off this year as well. The Democratic convention is next week and perhaps after that we will see a quick exit for her.

Redistricting

Kansas: Yet another Congressional plan has passed the Senate Redistricting committee. This map does not do any favors to Congresswoman Jenkins.  It is, however, likely to be close to what a judicial map would look like.  I am not sure it hurts Jenkins all that much because in my opinion the threat to her seat is not in a GE but in a primary. She has overperformed against Democrats and I feel she will have that seat as long as she keeps winning the GOP nomination to it.  Still as a general principle it is a shame to waste all of those GOP voters in CD1 and CD4.

Kansas II: There was also another map passed on Tuesday by the State Senate. The Senate passed a new map with a few changes as the lines were adjusted to put potential foes back in their old districts. It is still not clear if this will satisfy the Governor and House Speaker. I am wondering if there is not some sort of backroom compromise floating around that will sort out all these maps by the weekend.

rdelbov :: Afternoon Political Roundup May 2nd, 2012

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tags: (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

Post-Dated Diary?
or did 5:00 just come at 25-26 to 4 today?

R - MD-7

I was thinking
AM meant "after morning" so on my time to post I had AM.  I am now thinking PM might have been better? Can I blame M?  I find that Wisconsin poll three hours ago and put it in my afternoon update. Check that.  Afternoon Roundup.  I know I have to get out of here in a bit.  Then M posted the poll and I thought "he is going to post all of my afternoon items before I can".  Well since I have to get out why not post my afternoon roundup now?  Oops there goes another rubber tree plant or best laid plans of mice and men and so forth. Now you know the rest of the story.  

[ Parent ]
I see what you did there!
Nice Chicago reference.

[ Parent ]
clever
i never would've caught it.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Yep
One of my time-wasters is thinking up parodies so I always have a musical reference handy. I'm trying to rework this one about Warren right now: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
PPP has Romney up 5 in MT now.
Down from 10.

http://www.publicpolicypolling...

23, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) LUKE 18:5 is the official GOTV verse for 2014! -    


So, Either Romney's Support...
...Is collapsing nationally (if so, why isn't it showing up in the national polling?...), or PPP seems like it's trying to build a narrative.  

[ Parent ]
Well, PPP hasn't polled Montana
since November and Romney's support didn't drop until the end of January.

[ Parent ]
I would be shocked if it was that close in November
The only thing that kept it close last time was the Obama campaign really spent time and money in the state. They aren't doing so this time around, and Brian Schweitzer even says the only way Obama wins the state is if he's winning 47 states. That's not happening.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
In November,
it was Romney +10. As I recall, Romney starts having bad news weeks in late January. Maybe the Romney lead has decreased because he's been having bad news weeks?

I disagree with Schweitzer's statement (does he think states like Nebraska or Kansas are more likely to vote for Obama!?!?) but I agree with the idea that Obama won't win Montana unless he is blowing Romney out nationwide.


[ Parent ]
PPP
National Polls
11/2011- Obama +3 (Romney +10 in MT)
12/2011- Romney +2
1/2012- Obama +5
2/2012- Obama +7
3/2012- Obama +4
4/2012- Obama +3 (Romney +5 in MT)

Obama did have a little boomlet in January/February, but according to PPP the race nationally is the same as in November...

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
1)
Why do you automatically assume that the second poll is the outlier?
2) Obama/DK has Obama at +5 this week.

[ Parent ]
Didn't see that poll
I don't travel over there, and its not listed at RCP.  

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
NY-06: Meng loses Independence Line
This could be considered bad news for Dan Halloran because if Lancman wins the Dem primary he will now have 1 less Dem on the ballot in Nov:
http://www.cityandstateny.com/...


Mayor Daley's Outrageous Pension
The city of Chicago is near insolvency. City workers are bracing for pay and benefit cuts. And Rich Daley, the former mayor who had his behind kissed by the powerful in this town and by much of the media for two decades, has an inside deal that should make sane people sick to their stomachs:

An eventual pension of more than $180,000 for life, according to a Tribune/WGN-TV investigation.

Daley did it on the sneak, our reporters found. Just into his mayoralty years ago, he quietly re-entered the state legislators pension fund for a single month even though he'd been out of the legislature for a decade. That maneuver boosted his pension by about $50,000 a year and allowed him to avoid paying $400,000 into the plan.

Read more from my very favorite columnist (well, my favorite along with ESPN The Magazine's ever hilarious Rick Reilly)

http://www.chicagotribune.com/...

How ridiculous is that?! Chicago is broke. Thank God that he's now former Mayor Daley. . . at least Rahmbo is a little bit better. This pension isn't as outrageous as the guy running against Joe Heck' pension. . . he's getting a massive pension at age 50 or so because of 30 years working PART TIME for the State of Nevada and even gets to use his highest salary (that he only held/has held for a brief time in comparison to 30 years).

Now I understand why Democratic politicians are so opposed to entitlement reform. . . they're scared their ridiculous pensions would be cut!

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
The Steve Plan for a resurgent GOP: Fewer Steve Kings, more Steve Litzows


Elizabeth Warren's heritage
http://www.bostonherald.com/ne...
http://hotair.com/archives/201...

Brown's assertion has been that she lied about her heritage for her own advantage, not whether she was qualified to teach at any of the universities that she taught at. Of course she can't justify what she did, so she has to accuse Sen. Brown of something that appears worse that Brown hasn't actually done. Thus, it's not her that's done something. Brown has.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


it is a bizarre explanation...
"I listed myself in the directory in the hopes that it might mean that I would be invited to a luncheon, a group something that might happen with people who are like I am. Nothing like that ever happened, that was clearly not the use for it and so I stopped checking it off"

That's pretty hilarious.  Those minority race luncheons that she thought happened must be fun.  She might as well have said "I was hoping to be invited to the secret meetings based on my 3% Native American roots!"  Sounds like something Tracy Jordan would say on 30 Rock: "Sure, I know him from the secret black people meetings. Nah, I'm just kidding. He's not invited."


[ Parent ]
I can't decide
Does the term "people who are like I am" reflect chutzpah or hubris? She's a caring liberal who is in touch with the plight of oppressed minorities and thus she was just like those minorities.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Warren
I went to one of the biggest NA Pow Wows in the country in Idaho in 2008 when we were visiting Idaho. I'm not even NA. . . I wonder if she's ever been to one. Or any NA event, for that matter.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
The Steve Plan for a resurgent GOP: Fewer Steve Kings, more Steve Litzows


[ Parent ]
Definitive proof of Warren's heritage
Grandpa had high cheekbones like all those Native Americans do. Her mom did too. So she's probably half Native American.

http://www.weeklystandard.com/...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
"She Who Puts Her Foot In Mouth"


From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
The Steve Plan for a resurgent GOP: Fewer Steve Kings, more Steve Litzows


[ Parent ]
Shorten that to
"Puts Foot In Mouth."

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Giuliani not running against Avella.
Is it too late to revive AndyRoo?


From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
The Steve Plan for a resurgent GOP: Fewer Steve Kings, more Steve Litzows


[ Parent ]
Surprised Halloran
didn't get the full-court press from Skelos to run for this one. If Avella skates this year 2014 might be an option for him.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Halloran.
Yeah, but he has to run for reelection to the City Council in 2013. With the Queens GOP in feud mode, he may be on his own.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
The Avella district was made slightly more Dem in redistricting
with GOP voters moved into the district Ulrich is running in. Halloran figured if he's going to take a long shot run better to do it for the bigger and better job hence his decision to run for Congress.
As for the Queens feud this was part of what drove Koo out of the GOP and is why the GOP is missing a golden opportunity to make a play for the Asian Senate district.

[ Parent ]
NE-Sen: C4G and SCF
are up with new ads supporting Stenberg and attacking Brunning; in "Worse" the Club for Growth accuses Brunning of supporting a government ran healthcare system:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

Jim Demint's The Senate Conservative Fund's ad, "Fearless", is a fluff piece saying Stenberg is different than other politicians:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


Club for Growth is really pathetic
Frankly, I've come to rally hate them after this nonsense. I don't think they really even believe the crap they are putting out. The truth is that they got behind Stenberg only because he aggressively sold himself to them, and so they have to find some reason for supporting him. They really got behind the wrong person here.  

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
Is there anything better than this?
I don't think so.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?f...

An anti-public union, market-loving moderate.


Michele for Mitt
http://politicalticker.blogs.c...

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

Michelle Obama??
Gamechanger! :P

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
I'm not sure that exact line exists in Wizard of Oz
But does Rep. Bachmann really need to be quoting the Wicked Witch of the West?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
I found that absolutely hilarious
Who does that? Seriously.

I have heard of politicians quoting movies and songs. But Almost never do they quote the villain.  

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


[ Parent ]
My dad quoted Gordon Gekko the other day.
If Gekko is considered a villain, then there's an instance for you.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Depends
On the first movie or the second? The first he was definitely a villain. In the second, he was more of an anti-hero.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
First movie
"Greed is good." I haven't seen either one, though I need to watch them. If you knew my dad, then you'd know that he was being literal, using the quote against it's usual connotation. He's a pretty good example of of a fis/bizcon with some libertarian social leanings (though they're just sentiments and never show up in voting).

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
In the movie
The quote was "Greed, for lack of a better word, is good. Greed is right." and then the speech goes on from there, I can't remember it verbatim.

And he wasn't being sarcastic in the scene. The character certainly meant it in all of his corporate raider glory.

They are really good movies, I highly recommend them. Watch the first before the second though. As without the context, the second wouldn't make much sense.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


[ Parent ]
First is classic
Second one is good, but not great.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Sequels disappoint
That is a general rule. I agree that the first is far better than the second.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
There are big exceptions, though.
For instance, The Empire strikes Back is probably better than A New Hope.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Agreed
I was just referring to Wall Street though.

TESB is by far my favorite SW film.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
These moves are okay
but if had Buffett's money I netflick all of Kirk Douglas's movies from start to finish. Now those were Movies.  

[ Parent ]
I know that the character wasn't being sarcastic.
Most people that I've heard use do so in a sarcastic or critical manner. My father was agreeing with the 'villain.' I'll be sure to watch the movies.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
A lot of pols have used "I'll be back"
which is a quote from a human killing terminator robot right before he comes back to shoot up a police station and kill dozens of policeman and other innocent bystanders. Not exactly a quote from a good guy there.

[ Parent ]
More generally an ARNOLD quote
Arnold says it in just about every movie he's in.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
It's also in Commando
My favorite line of his.

"I like you. That's why I'm going to kill you last."

"Remember when I said I'd kill you last? I lied."

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
Howie Caaah is Wicked Hahdcoah
We all know about "undocumented workers." Now we have Elizabeth Warren, the undocumented Indian.

Funny thing, I think Ted Williams was one-fourth Mexican. He was white. Johnny Bench is one-eighth Indian. I always think of him as white. And then there's Pochantas Warren, the blue-eyed, one-32nd Cherokee (or so we're told) who went from the Southwest Conference to the Ivy League over the course of a decade in which she was claiming to be a "minority professor."

But once she'd parlayed the racial-spoils racket all the way to a tenured position at Harvard Law, she decided to ... pass, as they used to say in the old South. Once she'd reached the pinnacle of her trade, she ditched the fake-Indian routine. Maybe White Eyes Warren saw the smoke signals and figured out that someone was going to call her out on her ancestry. She was right.

Still, all's well that ends well. She has her $1.7 million wigwam in Cambridge. Greedy Wall Street lawyers slurp top-shelf firewater at her $1,000-a-head Manhattan fundraisers. Maybe someday she'll even smokum peace pipe with Tim Geithner.

Read more here: http://bostonherald.com/news/c...

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
The Steve Plan for a resurgent GOP: Fewer Steve Kings, more Steve Litzows


Oh, Howie Carr
If anyone ever said New England Republicans lacked flamers and bombthrowers, look no further.

[ Parent ]
Kansas: If Ad Astra III(?) Is Such a Slam-Dunk...
...Why hasn't it passed yet?!

Personally, I hope this is a sign that they're digging their heals in on making sure Leavenwoth co. gets its own SD, and isn't shafted like the KS libs want to do.  


In the linked article
It sounds like there is no deal and the conservative house isn't caving. Rather, the RINOs are trying to give some concessions to avoid a court map, but the conservatives won't save them. They obstructed Brownback and they will pay the price. But why are they holding up the congressional map? Is it a bargaining chip?  

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Why the Hostility to the Kansas mods?
This may be slightly off-topic, but having gone through London today urging hardcore Labour voters to vote against their candidate because he's an antisemite despite their hatred of the Conservative party, I am bit confused as to why what is largely a Pro-Business conservative is in favor of ousting the current leadership of the Kansas Senate, and replacing it with well, well the sort of people who inhabit the house.

From what I can see the major legislative priorities bottle up by the Senate in the last session include:

1. An "Anti-Bullying" bill for Christian Students which in effects prohibits school districts from running any sort of effective anti-bullying program by making it illegal for local school districts to penalize students for expressing their religious views publicly or to each other. This bill in at least an earlier form cited a "biblical" view of homosexuality.

2. A similar bill to legalize private businesses discriminating on the basis of religious belief.

3. A plan to abolish merit selection for judges and to replace it with partisan election.

#1 and #2 seem off-putting to me, but even if you support them, they are aimed directly at the independence of local municipal governments.

#3 would be bad for the business environment in the state outside any concept of objective justice. Having worked with businesses opening shop in the deep south, it basically imposes a de facto tax on anyone wanting to work in the state of having to pay off the local "Chamber of Commerce" Organization so you can purchase the services of their bought judges at the local level. At the statewide level you end up at best with Wisconsin or Michigan.

This does not seem to be a straight up corrupt NYS big-spending Republicans v. Conservative Reformer fight, and as an outsider I am confused by the eagerness to embrace it.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
They've caused trouble in the past.
This is more of a grudge feud than a fight over current policy proposals. Also, we generally want a safer map, and the moderates don't.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Agree
Jerry Moran and Lynn Jenkins are "moderates" by Kansas standards. My hostility is not for the group at large, which I'd almost certainly be a part of if I lived in KS, but rather for a particular small group of moderates - basically Tim Owens and anyone close to him - who seem hell-bent on giving Democrats as good a shot as possible at taking both KS-2 and KS-3 at some point this decade.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
I understand the desire for a 4-0 Congressional Map
It was the willingness to sacrifice that for a court-drawn senate map I thought was odd.


27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Thanks for your great work!
Livingstone is a vile, disgusting, sorry piece of ****. Apologies to the ****.
What do you think will be the result tomorrow? Any polls?  

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Wikipedia
Doesn't have any very fresh poll, but every recent poll had Johnson ahead.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
I think we win the Mayoral Race
I have a friend who has been doing leafletting for Livingstone, quite careerist in the Labour party, and he admitted he is probably voting Green first preference. When asked who he was voting for second he admitted "probably Boris." Livingston has pretty much lost the UK "Champagne Socialist" vote, and people seem to have separated the race from the rest of the political process.

The three most recent polls have Johnson up 6, 6 and 12, though the latter is Angus-Reid who were quite far off in 2010. More interestingly, they have the Labour lead for Westminster in London at 17, 19, and 11 respectively, so Boris is outrunning his party by between 15 and 30 points.

The big fight will consequently be to prevent an overall Labour majority in the London Assembly. They look to be headed to around 11-12 seats out of 25 up from 8 in 2008. We won 11 that year and probably will lose two to three. Preventing an overall majority though is vital to preventing Labour from blocking everything. A wildcard is how the Liberal Democrats do. They were wiped out last year in the local elections and are polling nationally at around 16% compared to 35% when these seats were last up. But they did very badly in London. Because the system is FPTP+Compensatory PR with a threshold, a lot depends on whether the Liberal Democrats just do badly or do Scotland 2011-esque badly(sub 3%). In that case they get deleted from the PR calculations which helps Labour.

Nationally it will be bad, but not as bad as it could be. This is a mostly urban election with the seats up being in places where the Conservatives are traditionally weak. The real losers will be the Liberal Democrats. UKIP may do very well off protest votes.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
I love the UKIP for the trouble that they cause in the EU Parliament.


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
also the proposed state senate map from moderates sucks
It protects all Democratic seats (in addition to trying to protect moderate Republicans)

And features Leavenworth county which is ideally 1.25 senate seats likely having no senators.

A redraw to an all Leavenworth district could both easily be Republican and help eliminate a Democrat living in Lawrence county by giving that one the hopkins choice between running against a Republican in a heavily Republican district and running against another Democrat.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
CT-Sen
This is one place where Emily's List is failing to be a force. Murphy has the nod and the seat in the bag. I hope that the GOP nominates McMahon for the sole reason that I want her to blow her own money on this run, not the party's money.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

When Barrett wins
Walker needs to spend all his money on ads attacking him. Barrett's record is horrible and simply putting up statistics will sink his support.

Walker/Martinez 2016

Primacy Effect, NC-LG
http://www.wral.com/asset/news...
http://www.publicpolicypolling...
http://www.nccivitas.org/2012/...
In the recent polls of North Carolina primary races, there are different leaders for the Republican lieutenant governor race. Dale Folwell (who I support and he is the Speaker Pro Tempore of the State House) is leading by 5 in the most recent Public Policy Polling poll. Dan Forest (architect and son of Ninth District Congresswoman Sue Myrick) is leading in the recent Civitas and SurveyUSA polls by about 5 points. (The other candidates running for LG are Grey Mills, a state representative, Tony Gurley, a Wake County Commissioner, and Arthur Rich, a CPA.) PPP listed the candidates according to how they will be on the ballot, with Folwell coming first due to alphabetical order. The other two polls rotated the order of how the candidates were listed. Do you think PPP's listing made a difference in the poll results Folwell received? Conversely, do you think the other two polls having random ordering made another candidate leading more likely? How much impact does where someone's name is on a ballot have on the votes they receive?

10,000 at CalState Ful. Paul Event
I'm one (imperial should be proud)...Quite the young crowd avg age is 30

21-Cubano, R, CA-38
City Commission Vice-Chair, College Republican Club President


And still
He will lose that district in a blowout.
Rallying all the Democrats...  

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Not so much as
Turning out the pot vote..everyone under 35 jumped up for Rona line of "We ought to have personal liberty, even the right to grow in our own backyards"

21-Cubano, R, CA-38
City Commission Vice-Chair, College Republican Club President


[ Parent ]
I'd jump up and cheer for that line
And I don't drink or smoke.  

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04

[ Parent ]
I'd heckle about that line.
Nd they say they that the GOP doesn't contain a range if opinion. :)

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
True
We both like UKIP, for example

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04

[ Parent ]
I'd cheer too, and I personally hate the stuff
I smoked pot over 10 years ago and had a bad "high" off it. I'd call it a low myself. I haven't touched it since. It's a waste of money. It's probably health wise less worse for you than my vice of liquid courage which is perfectly legal.

I don't think people should be in jail over it though, unless you're driving while high.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
You know
it was the opposite in my county in our caucus and convention. Most Paul supporters were rather older, retired folks, and almost all the younger ones in their teens and twenties were for Santorum.

26, Republican, WA-03 (represented by wonderful Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler).

[ Parent ]
IL-13 candidates
Today was the deadline to apply. We have no elected officials here running. Erika Harold, Jerry Clarke, Becky Doyle (former Director of IL Department of Agriculture), and Rodney Davis (former IL GOP Executive Director, Shimkus aide), seem to be the biggest names, but 4 others also applied. I'd assume the two also-rans from the primary that applied are going to be given very little consideration for running against an incumbent
http://www.sj-r.com/breaking/x...

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


I'm glad that Haroldfiled.
Johnson's retirement might turn out to be a happy accident if she wins.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
+1


29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Q FL OH PA polls
Mitt up 1 in FL, Obama up 2 in OH, 8 in PA.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/inst...

26, Male, R, NY-10


not that great
I guess things come back into order a bit with OH and PA.. Need better results in PA, though.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, Romney's winning 7 percent of PA Democrats
And he's trailing by 9 with independents. That needs to change.

Otherwise, though, for the time being, I'd definitely stack my chips on Ohio and Florida flipping. From there, of course, Romney needs some combo of PA/WI/NV/IA/VA/NH to actually hit 270.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
Seems Like an Outlier
No one else has shown a margin like that in PA - I'm going to assume it's an outlier, unless other recent polls show the same thing.  

[ Parent ]
Um, no
Besides from Rasmussen's Likely voter screen, the last few polls of Pennsylvania are...

Quinnipiac...Obama +8
PPP...Obama +7
Morning Call...Obama +11
Rasmussen...Obama +1
Franklin and Marshall...Obama +8


[ Parent ]
right where i would have pegged the race
Oddly enough, driving home last night, I was putting the states where I thought they'd go if the election were today, and I thought Romney would be McCain+NE, NC, VA, IN, and FL (barely).  Barely lose OH and NH, and lose PA by 5-7.

[ Parent ]
Happy 89th birthday Rep. Ralph Hall
Will be oldest serving house member on record in December.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Search




Advanced Search


(C) RedRacingHorses
Powered by: SoapBlox