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Red Racing Horses analyzes and discusses elections from a Republican-leaning perspective. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog. Please read our site Terms of Use.

~The RRH Moderators: BostonPatriot, Daniel Surman, GoBigRedState, Greyhound, James_Nola, Right Reformer, Ryan_in_SEPA, and Shamlet.

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RRH's 2014 General Election Preview Series:

Part 7 - Senate

Part 6 - Eastern Governors

Part 5 - Western Governors

Part 4 - Northeast/South House

Part 3 - Midwest/West House

Part 2 - Row Officers

Part 1 - Legislatures and Local

The Current RRH Race Ratings:

Senate

Governor

House

Row Officers


Morning Political Roundup for May 3, 2012

by: Right Reformer

Thu May 03, 2012 at 09:00:00 AM EDT


Hello folks. Welcome to your morning roundup. This is a week with a lot of news, though none of it particularly earth shattering. Sort of like the middle chapter of a trilogy.

Presidential News:

Romney: Governor Romney pokes a little bit of fun at Obama's new slogan "forward," though I only give him credit for trying, not for actual humor. "Forward is his new slogan. Forward what? Over the cliff?!" Oh well, at least he'd be better on the economy, if not humor.

More Romney: A small inside-the-beltway controversy is emerging over whether gay foreign policy advisory Ric Grennell was forced out of the Romney campaign for being gay. Reports are that people inside the campaign were making Grennell's job very difficult, but that official Romney higher ups were asking Grennell to stay. In any event, several misogynistic tweets from Grennell didn't make him a sympathetic character.

Newt:  Speaker Gingrich finally dropped out of the presidential race yesterday. The camapign that once flamed out, then rose from the ashes, then flamed out again, is now over. Assuming Newt can pay off his debt, I think running for president was a net positive for Gingrich. More attention, more fame, more respect as a debater and intellectual presence in the GOP. On the other hand, expect to hear Newt's words about the Ryan plan and Romney make their way into Democratic campaign ads.

More Newt: Newt did not formally endorse Romney in his withdrawal announcement, but spokesman R.C. Hammond says "it's coming.'

Bachmann:  Representative Bachmann, who had previously made a few positive comments about Rick Santorum, is set to formally endorse Romney today. Not much risk anymore. Only a matter of time before th rest of the candidates get on board.

WI-Presidential Race: The same poll that's discussed below, which was Walker ahead of Barrett by a point, also has Romney down to Obama by 9 points, 51-42. Walker is doing a great job, as these numbers demonstrate, separating his opponents from Obama himself.

Senate:

IN-Sen: Uh oh, ethanol subsidies. Is this the wedge issue Lugar needs to claw back into the race against Mourdock? He has less than a week to make this work, but at least it's something for Lugar that may have some legs. Both Pence and Gregg, the Gubernatorial candidates, have praised ethanol, but Mourdock has stated that he opposes the subsidies. The ethanol industry in Indiana is nothing like Iowa's, but it may have some traction.

VA-Sen: PPP has Kaine leading Allen by 1, which is great news in my opinion. I made a few waves on Tuesday by saying that I think Kaine will outperform Obama in November. This poll clearly shows the opposite, and is making me reconsider. I'll stick with my initial gut feeling, against the evidence, but for now let's just say I'm happy we have a tight race in the Senate contest, even with a Dem leaning sample.

NM-Sen: In an example of thumbing the party in the eye, Senator Rand Paul has endorsed Greg Sowards over former Representative Heather Wilson. Sowards would have no shot against either Martin Heinrich or Hector Balderas, but Wilson -- who's been called "Queen RINO" by Sowards -- apparently isn't conservative enough for Paul.

RI-Sen: Sheldon Whitehouse is now facing a challenger from his left, Danny Laporte. Laporte is running on a platform of single-payer healthcare and letting prisoners serve only half their sentences if they obtain masters degrees while in prison. Best of luck, Danny Laporte!

HI-Sen: I like the tactic, though not the execution. Last month former Hawaii Governor and current Senate candidate Linda Lingle said that the state should vote to her so that the Senate contains pro-choice GOP women. But she also cast the debate about religious freedom in terms of "legislating women's health," terms that are a little too close to Democratic talking points. I'll accept a little of this if we can make this race close, but don't want this to go overboard. But I do like hitting Harono on missing a vote on student loan interest rates.

Governors Races:

Wisconsin: The upshot is that Barrett leads the Dem primary, and Walker leads Barrett. Of course, Walker's lead doesn't account for the enormous amount of money advantage Walker will also have over Barrett once the Democratic primary ends. I'm not so confident on this race as to declare victory, but I like the looks of the Democrats apparent overreach in recalling Walker. Walker also has an even greater lead against Falk, should the primary race turn suddenly against Barrett.

House:

CA-16: Though we failed to get an A-lister for this race against Jim Costa, I am stopping short of classifying this as a safe seat. The Fresno State Republicans are hosting a debate between the 3 GOP candidates about a mile away from where I grew up. Not sure who our best shot is here.

IL-13: As Erika Harold seeks the nomination to take over for Tim Johnson in IL-13, the state party chair says he hopes to have a decision by May 19. Apparently the potential candidates are being asked to self-vet, through an extensive questionnaire process that includes detailed personal questions. Hopefully our candidate can survive the media attention after the nomination occurs.

UT-4: You knew this was coming. Mia Love is being touted as the GOP's next biggest star. Frankly, I'm inclined to agree. From winning the race against Matheson this fall, to the Senate or Governorship of Utah next, and then who knows what after that.  

Miscellany:

John Edwards: Lest it be forgotten, John Edwards is a really bad person. Not one to agree with Elizabeth Edwards' politics, I still find it pretty awfult that her husband treated her with such incredible cruelty. Hard to believe his aides didn't intervene to stop him from running for the Democratic nomination, even after they knew the affair was going.

Americans Elect: The almost third-party is cancelling its online caucus this week, saying there isn't enough support for any of the candidates. At the earliest the caucus will be held the week of May 15, but maybe not even at that point.

NC-Amendment One:  Voting in North Carolina may exceed the 2008 primary, despite no hot Democratic or GOP primary still happening. Amendment One -- the traditional marriage amendment that would preclude even domestic partnerships -- appears set to pass, even with the increased voter turnout.

Right Reformer :: Morning Political Roundup for May 3, 2012
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Yesterday's bizarre becomes today's racist...
Um, if I were a Democrat, I would be telling Ms. Warren close her mouth for a lil' while:

http://www.weeklystandard.com/...

As a Republican, however, I say, "Keep digging, Ms. Coakley Warren!"


BOSTON, MA (AP)-
A frantic Elizabeth Warren was seen attempting to shake every single fan's hand at the Red Sox game last night. When about three quarters of the fans spurned her, she had to be dragged out screaming, "WHY ISN'T THIS WORKING? YOU RUINED MY CAMPAIGN, SCOTT BROWN!"


From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
The Steve Plan for a resurgent GOP: Fewer Steve Kings, more Steve Litzows


[ Parent ]
Did that really happen?
nm

Age 44. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.

[ Parent ]
No
It probably eventually will, though. It's satirizing her/comparing her to Martha Coakley.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
The Steve Plan for a resurgent GOP: Fewer Steve Kings, more Steve Litzows


[ Parent ]
I thought so
But like all the best satire, it seems so close to reality that I couldn't be positive.

Age 44. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.

[ Parent ]
Heh
I love writing fake AP stories on things that are both so absurd yet so believable. I had a good one on Manan Trivedi a while back.

I bet something like my story from this morning will happen soon enough, though.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
The Steve Plan for a resurgent GOP: Fewer Steve Kings, more Steve Litzows


[ Parent ]
This is really starting to feel like Slow-Mo Coakley
Rather than everything coming within a week, it feels like Warren's campaign is slowly collapsing on itself. She has plenty of time to turn it around but there has not been much good news for her in the last few months.

[ Parent ]
HI-Sen
I see absolutely no cause for concern here. Let's face it, talking like a Democrat is the only way to win in HI.  

R - MD-7

I think Edwards
will get off as the case against him is hard for even me to understand.  It has basically been anything goes as far as campaign expenses.  Plus the trial is in DC?

Hung jury at worst.  


No the trial is in North Carolina
I don't understand the legal charges either. But if I were Edwards' lawyers, I would not want to entrust his fate to a jury of 12 non-lawyers. They -- and, of course, Edwards -- are taking a HUGE gamble here.

Age 44. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.

[ Parent ]
NC--my goodness
if Edwards could speak to the jury that would be it.

I guess they know him best or worse or whatever.


[ Parent ]
MA-Sen: Some Dudette gets on Dem ballot
http://www.boston.com/news/loc...

Hahaha, maybe we can get the CPA to spend against warren.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
The Steve Plan for a resurgent GOP: Fewer Steve Kings, more Steve Litzows


IL-13
I'm suddenly a lot more worried about our chances here given that not a single elected official stood up. Maybe it was rigged for Clarke after all.

It certainly looks on paper like Harold is the best choice, though I'd give Becky Doyle a hearing as a plan B, as she seems to have a decent level of government experience. I'm deeply suspicious of people whose resume consists solely of internal congressional or party positions, especially in a process like this. Choose someone like that and a PR nightmare will probably develop.

R - MD-7


Harold is the best choice
She is refreshing and as an outsider will blow Gill out of the water. Her ethnic diversity, attractiveness, and being well spoken probably helps as well.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Haha, no.
I don't think her ethnic diversity matters to the people of Central Illinois.

I do think she has the most impressive resume and pedigree of the four candidates, however, so I support her.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
The Steve Plan for a resurgent GOP: Fewer Steve Kings, more Steve Litzows


[ Parent ]
I have to agree with you about ethnicity in Central IL.
Here (Central IL) there be white people, and lots of them.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Let me put it this way
It benefits her with swing voters or Dem leaning voters that probably wouldn't even give a thought about someone like Davis. Even if it is one person, my point is her attractiveness, ethnicity, and well spokeness will benefit her with non traditional GOP voters. Of course her background, and history with the district, along with her views will carry the day.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
I tend to agree
as we often see ethnics and women (not always) score well in the middle.  I notice the sex and Ethnic breakdown of every candidate I look at.  I think most voters do.  I have run into a color blind voter, even blind voters that I have known, take into account ethnic breakdowns.  

Clearly we saw alot of voters who eager to vote for Obama in 2008 that went beyond just his politics.  

Ethnic GOP candidates Tim Scott, Allen West, Sandoval and Martinez lead the GOP tickets in their area in 2010. Yes they did better with hispanic and AA voters (depending on their race) but they also did better with white voters then other statewide GOP canddidates either in their district or statewide. It moves some votes.  IL13 is quite bit more white then most CDs but it impacts voters.  This does not show up in polls.  Voters hardly ever claim to be impacted by race or ethnic creed or religion.  


[ Parent ]
Although if the selection process involves candidates being chosen by
answering questions and performing in front of a panel of judges, Ms. Harold has the most experience and success in that endeavor!

[ Parent ]
Yes
Very well said. If she's the nominee, I'll send her $25.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Anyone but Clarke
Or, more specifically, Harold is my top choice, as she is a fresh face and would avoid charges of the process being rigged for an insider, but Doyle and Davis are solid choices too.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
I've been hoping we would hit 2 million for overall
Turnout in NC.

The amendment was always going to drive the turnout. Not the presidential, or Gov primaries.  

23, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) LUKE 18:5 is the official GOTV verse for 2014! -    


I wouldn't be surprized
if there were a significant number of people requesting an initive only ballot there. (not requesting either Republican or Democratic, or any other primary ballot)

I'm also thinking on the Democratic side they'll be top line shrinkage. (People voting on the initive and some of the other D primary races but skipping Presidential)

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
NY court of appeals
Ruled unanimously for the GOP on the 63rd seat.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Game . . . Set . . . Match
Now let's see if the GOP can maintain their tenuous Senate majority.  Even with this map, I'm very skeptical.  

[ Parent ]
We still have
The one person one vote federal lawsuit.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Yikes . . the lawsuits never seem to end


[ Parent ]
There are active lawsuits
concerning redistricting in NH, NY, PA, MD, WV, VA, NC, GA, FL, MS. TN, KY, OH, MI, MO, TX, NM, AZ, CA, ID, UT and AK.  Did I miss any? I under we might see a case in VT.


[ Parent ]
And in almost all cases
known that even if plantiffs prevail, the current districts stand for this election and only force a redraw before the 2014 election.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
I think they can for this election
I do think it's likely that at some point in the cycle the senate will flip, but it will be in a D wave year.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Quinnipiac out with three new polls (repost)
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/inst...

PA: Obama 47, Romney 39
FL: Romney 44, Obama 43
Ohio: Obama 44, Romney 42


followup
http://usconservatives.about.c...

These could benefit from some Andyroo reweighting. The PA lead certainly still would remain for Obama, but probably not the Ohio one.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
for the record
Reweighting under the author's points here gives the following:

OH: Romney +2
FL: Romney +2
PA: Obama +6

Take it for what it's worth. That said, Quinnipiac is generally the best pollster in the business.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
Ye ask, ye shall receive
Florida

D 36
R 35
I 29

Obama - 86/4/38 = 43%
Romney - 8/87/41 = 45%

Ohio

D 37
R 34
I 29

Obama - 84/4/38 = 43%
Romney - 7/89/43 = 45%

Pennsylvania

D 42
R 37
I 21

Obama - 83/5/45 = 46%
Romney - 7/84/36 = 42%

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
Numbers remind me a little of 2004 . . .
However, I doubt that Romney can achieve anything close to a 2004 result in Virginia (or North Carolina or Nevada or Colorado).  

I wonder where Iowa is right now.  I'm beginning to think that the state is a must win for Romney.  


[ Parent ]
That is, the reweighted numbers


[ Parent ]
Sounds reasonable
Everyone knows this is going to be a close race. A bit surprised by the size of the lead by Obama in Pennsylvania, and a little surprised to see Romney up in Ohio. But numbers in all these seats will move quite a bit in the next 6 months and 3 days

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Kind of surprises me
Obama seems stuck at 44 to 47% in the Pennsylvania polls.  His opponents go up and down, but he seems pretty consistently within the same range.  It seems like they have both are at their respective floors with occasional noise above the floor.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
it doesn't seem like
7% of Democrats is enough to win PA. Especially as one is losing independents. In FL/OH Romney is winning independents.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
although interestingly enough
CNN's 2004 exit polls had Kerry winning FL and OH independents by sizable margins. According to them, Bush won both states because the GOP share of the electorate was +4/+5, respectively, and slightly better crosspartisan performance.

Who knows how accurate these are.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20...

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
Indies in Florida
in the last PPP were 53 Obama to 34 Obama.

Of course I have issues with PPP so take what I say about them with a grain of salt.  


[ Parent ]
Hmm, well yes, Quinnipiac has seen very little movement for either
of the two. Romney's been at 40, 42, and 39 and Obama's been at 47, 45, and 46.

I should note that Obama's reached 49 in PPP's poll, 48 in Morning Call's poll and Romney reached 44 in Rasmussen's poll.


[ Parent ]
Morning Thoughts
More Newt: What's the hold-up on the endorsement about?

VA-Sen: I can see arguments for either candidate outperforming his party's presidential nominee. Kaine has a bit of Warner's appeal, but Allen has appeal in NOVA.

CA-16: We shouldn't win, but it will be nice to put up a fight if it's possible.

IL-13: Hoping for Harold

UT-04: Lets not get carried away. She still has to beat Jim Matheson, which will not be an easy hiil to climb.

Americans Elect: Lol

NC-Amendment One: I'm glad that this is on the ballot now. Another decade or two, and there might have been enough transplants to deafeat the measure.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)


NC -- Amendment One . . .
It would have been much better for Romney and the GOP for the measure to be on the November ballot.  

[ Parent ]
I hadn't thought about that.
Good point

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Wouldn't have happened.
It was originally planned to be on the ballot in Nov. But the D's in the legislature wouldn't have helped to approve it because they said it would've been used by the GOP to help R's get elected.

So they just moved it to the primary instead.  

23, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) LUKE 18:5 is the official GOTV verse for 2014! -    


[ Parent ]
Concord, Mass
This is just so typical of MetroWest towns. Warren is probably still revered in that big cluster of towns.

http://www.boston.com/yourtown...

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
The Steve Plan for a resurgent GOP: Fewer Steve Kings, more Steve Litzows


it passed.
http://www.necn.com/04/25/12/C...

After nearly two hours of debate, the town of Concord, Mass. passed a bottled water ban 403-364 late Wednesday night after a re-count by town moderators.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
Concord
Supporters of this type of crap are the same types of people who drive to Whole Foods clutching their reusable shopping bags. . . in their brand new gas guzzling high end car. What freaking hypocrites (or, at least, many of them).

My AP Environmental Science teacher loves to make fun of people like that. It's one of his favorite examples of how limousine liberals are idiots (he's just sort of an angry independent who loves to rag on both parties/sides).

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
The Steve Plan for a resurgent GOP: Fewer Steve Kings, more Steve Litzows


[ Parent ]
I don't agree
I think supporters of this are people who are beyond the fringes, the type of voters who go for The Green Party and such.  They probably don't even shop at Whole Foods because they have problems with them for whatever reason.  They also probably drive 1988 Ford Station Wagons.

I lived in the Hamptons and I can't remember a single person out there not using bottled water or being against it.

btw regardless of that, the law is moronic and anyone who supports it needs to seriously question themselves.


33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
Sicko extremists (nt)


26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Insanity


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Its time for the formation of the "Bottled Water Party"!!


[ Parent ]
The liberal ideology:
You can't tell me that I shouldn't kill my fetus, I can tell you not to drink water in bottles.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Amazing
And Concord is actually one of the more "moderate" towns in that belt.

[ Parent ]
Not anymore
It's really veered to the left since the early 2000's...

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
NY-Sen: Maragos up with first TV spot
http://www.youtube.com/watch?f...

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

TX-Sen
In addition to a $2 Million TV buy, Leppert has a radio ad featuring...Troy Aikman: http://trailblazersblog.dallas...

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

jobless claims fall sharply
http://www.latimes.com/busines...

Everyone is anxiously awaiting the April numbers

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


Gonna be a busy day in the market tomorrow
ADP private sector was worse than expected yesterday. Jobless claims today were better than expected, which reversed the recent rise in jobless claims. The stock market is at a 4 year high. I hope my index and middle fingers are quick at clicking the button tomorrow because this number may be way higher or lower than expected.  

27, IL-7, Fiscal Conservative

[ Parent ]
Julia
http://www.barackobama.com/lif...

The Obama campaign has introduced Julia, a woman who is defined by her dependence on government (and other people's money) for all major decisions in her life. This celebrates the entitlement mindset. "Government should do more for me." She can't even have a child without Barack Obama being there for her.

I'd like to think that government isn't required to do everything for me and that I'm capable of handling a few of these things myself. Julia is not.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


I actually think this works
Although, I'm probably too cynical to buy into the "entitlement mindset" meme.

nm

An anti-public union, market-loving moderate.


[ Parent ]
That is so ripe for paradoy I dont even know where to begin!
At age 31 under President Obama Julia can be a single unwed mother by getting inceminated from one of our many newly created Federal Procration Centers after filling out the required RX-1255 forms and recieving her approval from the Department of Sex and Reproductive Services.

Under Mitt Romney Julia will be sold to our new Ganymedean Overlords for profit. Julia will be forced to toil on the slave mines of Titan and will lose her perscription drug benefits and will have to pay for forced sterilization out of her own pocket.


[ Parent ]
Patronizing and condescending.
women can't support themselves without Obama's benevolence!

Any mention of Julia's baby daddy?

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!


[ Parent ]
Maybe the President?
He's providing her with everything else to sustain her life, surely he'll donate to her.

There's something so condescending in the idea that women can't get healthcare unless government/Planned Parenthood/their employer pays for it. I know that I'm male, but I get great healthcare and pay for it the way I pay for everything else, out of my pocket.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Hey. That seems a bridge too far.


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
That is so sad
I couldn't even get past the third slide.

Saint Paul (MN-4)  

[ Parent ]
Bin Laden bounce
both Gallup and Ras measuring a bump for Obama. However this should dissipate even faster than the original bounce.

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!


Joe Biden goes vulgar
In a speech today on foreign policy, Vice President Biden uttered a few immortal words: "Now is the time to heed the timeless advice from Teddy Roosevelt: 'Speak softly and carry a big stick.' End of quote. I promise you, the president has a big stick."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

Facepalm.

27, R, PA-07.


Rasmussen Reports - Montana Senate: Rehberg (R) 53%, Tester (D) 43%
And just as I criticized the PPP poll the other day
neither do I find this to be believable. The truth is somewhere in the middle, probably a small lead for Rehberg.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
Yeah
If you put a gun to my head, I'd say that it's about 49-46 Rehberg right now, but I'm no polling expert.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
NV-Sen: Berkley hits the airwaves
A 60 second ad about her efforts to improve mental health in veterans facilities (through the Justin Bailey act):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


VA-Gov: An early look
tl;dr version: Bolling is more electable but Cuccinelli leads big in the primary.

Republican primary:

Ken Cuccinelli (R): 51
Bill Bolling (R): 23
Tareq Salahi (R): 4
Undecided: 22

(Bet Boilling regrets playing the my turn/your turn game now)

.

With Warner:

Mark Warner (D): 53
Ken Cuccinelli (R): 33
Undecided: 14

Mark Warner (D): 53
Bill Bolling (R): 32
Undecided: 14

My guess is that Warner running depends on whether we hold or lose the senate.

With McAuliffe:

Terry McAuliffe (D): 41
Ken Cuccinelli (R): 36
Undecided: 23

Terry McAuliffe (D): 34
Bill Bolling (R): 36
Undecided: 30

(... please not him again.)

With Perriello (yes please):

Tom Perriello (D): 39
Ken Cuccinelli (R): 36
Undecided: 25

Tom Perriello (D): 34
Bill Bolling (R): 35
Undecided: 31

Is there a big difference ideologically between Cuccinelli and Bolling? Big enough to matter? Who are Republicans here rooting for?

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


Oops, link:
http://www.publicpolicypolling... (WARNING: pdf)

The sample is 53% female, 47% male; 9/20/31/24/17 very liberal/somewhat liberal/moderate/somewhat conservative/very conservative.

39D/32R/29I, 74% white, 19% AA, 7% other.

Bolling favorability:

Favorable: 15%
Unfavorable: 16%
Not sure: 69%

Cuccinelli favorability:

Favorable: 30%
Unfavorable: 37%
Not sure: 34%

It's pretty damning that Bolling can poll so much better despite being so much less known.

McAuliffe favorability:

Favorable: 13%
Unfavorable: 20%
Not sure: 67%

Periello favorability:

Favorable: 14%
Unfavorable: 16%
Not sure: 70%


(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
This just tells us what we already knew.
Cooch is polarizing, but very popular with Rs.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
4% For Salahi??!!
Who are these people so that we may hunt them down like bison!?!...  

[ Parent ]
Like the 8% of Gary Johnson voters and square roots of negative numbers
their existence is more hypothetical than real, existing only to torment the minds of political junkies.

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
You'd be surprised at how popular that stupid show is


[ Parent ]
I'm obviously pulling for Cooch
He is one of the few non-current Governors/Senators I see as Presidential material someday.

Saint Paul (MN-4)  

[ Parent ]
hoping Warner runs
I will gladly trade the Governorship of Virginia for a better than 50/50 shot at a Senate seat.

We have a solid bench for the 2014 Virginia Senate seat even in a Romney Presidency, including of course, Bob McDonnell.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
I agree
Warner is better off being a sitting governor if he wants to run in 2015, than a senator. And McDonnell will walk into the senate seat. Although if Kaine loses this year, Warner could appoint him, which could make it more competitive against McDonnell.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Just found out that Barney Frank is my graduation speaker
And I was having such a nice day, too....

Oh dear.
I'll be praying for you haha  

23, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) LUKE 18:5 is the official GOTV verse for 2014! -    

[ Parent ]
Become Joel Pollak 2.0
For those who don't get that: http://latimesblogs.latimes.co...

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
The Steve Plan for a resurgent GOP: Fewer Steve Kings, more Steve Litzows


[ Parent ]
Wear a rain jacket
He's a little bit of a wet speaker

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
Johnstown gets a new hockey team
Well, a minor league team. Maybe this will bring 5 new jobs to Johnstown and maybe only 10% of Johnstown will vacate Cambria County this decade! Oh, how much that county needs to get off of the federal dole and to ditch the unions. . .

Anyway, any ideas on what the new team should be named? I'm thinking the Johnstown Fighting Porkers, the Johnston Bacon Takers, the Johnstown Fighting ConservaDems, or the Johnstown Fighting Jack Murthas. That's not meant to be disrespectful, he really was the Tim Holden (err, the "political god") of Cambria County.

Johnstown Population:

1930        66,993 −0.5%
1940        66,668 −0.5%
1950        63,232 −5.2%
1960        53,949 −14.7%
1970        42,476 −21.3%
1980        35,496 −16.4%
1990        28,134 −20.7%
2000        23,906 −15.0%
2010        20,978 −12.2%

http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
The Steve Plan for a resurgent GOP: Fewer Steve Kings, more Steve Litzows


That one's easy. The Chiefs!
They can hire Paul Newman's ghost as coach.

"They brought their f'n TOYS with them?"  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
Best Twitter jokes
Cameron Gray ‏ @Cameron_Gray
Update: Elizabeth Warren just claimed to be 1/32 #Julia

Ana Marie Cox ‏ @anamariecox
Ok, this is funny. RT @adamsbaldwin: RT @PoliticalLogic "I'm a little concerned that Obama is President for all 67+ years of #Julia's life!"

jimgeraghty ‏ @jimgeraghty
It's safe to assume the Obama administration impregnated #Julia, since they handled everything else in her life.

jimgeraghty ‏ @jimgeraghty
At age 68, the Death Panels finally catch up with #Julia.

David Burge ‏ @iowahawkblog
#Julia "at 37, Julia completes her Masters degree in Interactive Website Design. At 43, she gets a job pulling a solar powered rickshaw."

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


MN-Gov, MN-leg
http://m.startribune.com/news/...

Dayton to get his vote on his #1 priority, over the objection if Speaker Zellers. Zellers will not be speaker or majority leader in January, as he is definitely being criticized internally for his handling of this.

The votes are being whipped right now. There are a number of DFLers, particularly in Minneapolis and St. Paul that oppose it (for very different reasons) but they can be brought into the fold if their votes are absolutely needed by the Governor.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


Democratcy Corps poll
The poll is 37%D/31%R/29%I and yet Democrats lead by 1 on the generic ballot, while Romney and Obama are tied.

http://www.democracycorps.com/...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Magellan AZ poll
Mitt up 9, Flake up only 4.
Brewer at 48/45 approval.
SB1070 is +19 supported.

41-34 R-D sample

http://magellanstrategies.com/...

26, Male, R, NY-10


A Couple of Problems

1.  I don't buy that Romney is leading Obama among Arizona Hispanics by 10 points.

2.  Neither do I think that Romney is leading by almost two-to-one among 18-34 year old voters.

While I think that Romney is leading now in Arizona and will carry it in November, my guess is that he is up around 5 points there right now.  


[ Parent ]
something was likely misprinted
The toplines aren't off. Someone probably mistabulated somewhere as Romney will do much better with Arizona whites.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
MT-Gov: Bullock-Hill tied 39-39
Link (WARNING: pdf)

Would lead Miller 41-35.

Republican primary (top 3):

Rick Hill: 33%
Ken Miller: 12%
Corey Stapleton: 7%

Nobody else crosses 5%.

The poll is of 934 registered voters.

The sample is 8/16/32/26/18 very liberal/somewhat liberal/moderate/somewhat conservative/very conservative; 53% female, 47% male; 30D/33R/37I; 89% white, 11% other.  

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


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