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Bonus Thursday Open Thread and Poll

by: Right Reformer

Thu May 03, 2012 at 20:30:00 PM EDT


Thanks again to rdelbov for letting me sit in today. I'm off to Reno early tomorrow morning, so I won't be around most of the day unless things are slow. Here's a bonus open thread/poll for everyone.

1. Romney was teased throughout the race as being Mr. 20%, the frontrunner who no one really liked, the co-conspirator to Obamacare, and the race's most out-of-touch candidate. So how did he win the nomination so handily then, with no real scare to speak of?

2. If Romney had either not run, dropped out for personal reasons, or committed an early major gaffe that left him mired in low single digits, who would the nominee have been? 
Right Reformer :: Bonus Thursday Open Thread and Poll
Poll
Which candidate made the biggest mistake by not running/staying in the race longer?
Tim Pawlenty
Haley Barbour
Mitch Daniels
John Thune
Chris Christie
Rick Perry

Results

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Bonus Thursday Open Thread and Poll | 38 comments
Romney WV Event Tonight Expected to Raise Nearly $2 Million
https://twitter.com/#!/EmilyAB...

Supposedly, the campaigns goal is to average about $1 million for every event Romney himself attends. If he can keep hitting over $1.5, like he did in his 2 FL events last month and a couple of his NY events last month, and his PA event earlier this week, he could be rivaling the Obama campaign.  

Male, LA-06/LA-01 (Home is where the heart is)
Cassidy, Tillis, Rounds, Latham for Senate!  

My event in Redwood City California last month raised less than a million
Hard to believe West Virginians are putting up cash that Californians aren't.

If there's a lot of coal money there, maybe they hit it big. But 2 million for one event is still pretty incredible.

Born: CA-22 (Nunes); Just Left: CA-12 (Pelosi); Now: CO-1 (Degette)

[ Parent ]
California
California has been tapped much more often. This may be his first event in WV the whole campaign. And was that event before or after Santorum withdrew?

Male, LA-06/LA-01 (Home is where the heart is)
Cassidy, Tillis, Rounds, Latham for Senate!  
[ Parent ]
Coal Money
We see the same thing in WV-1.  

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
answers
1) establishment support and money.  His father being from Michigan also helped; Santorum might've won the state otherwise

2) Mike Huckabee would've run if Romney chose not to and won the nomination, in my opinion.  Otherwise, Tim Pawlenty might've had a good shot.  Huntsman still wouldn't have.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.

My answers
1. The candidates who were left by the time the nomination contest really began were too weak to have a legitimate chance of beating Romney. Of all the candidates who were ever in the race, I think only Pawlenty and Perry could have beaten him. I'm still amazed now at how quickly Perry's star faded. He had one of the best starts to a campaign ever, and it seemed to go downhill from there. Really once Perry was out, the nomination was settled, even though it took awhile before everything played out.
2. Pawlenty would have benefited from a very early exit by Romney. If he had dropped out after Pawlenty had dropped out, I think we would have seen somebody else get in that didn't and I think that person would have won the nomination. Maybe Mitch Daniels would have seen a place for him that he didn't see with Romney in the race.

41, R, NE-1.
Answers
1. The quality of his opposition (or lack thereof). Mitt won by default, simple as that.

2. Pawlenty. All the big names more dropped out due to personal reasons rather than fear of Romney and almost everyone else in the race imploded on their own with only marginal assistance from the Romney camp. Without Romney in the race TPaw would have had the Business Conservative vote to himself and could focus on the role he was really suited to, neo-Romney rather than anti-Romney.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

Agreed. Romney won by default
If Pawlenty stayed in he would have been the anti-Mitt, had his surge and IMHO won.

If Romney imploded after TPaw dropped out somebody big would have had to step in. Maybe Rudy if it was in Oct or Nov of 2011 or Jeb Bush if it happened in early 2012. Otherwise we would be looking at Santorum as the GOP nominee.

[ Parent ]
General Question
Does anyone think that the Chen Guangcheng diplomatic debacle hurts the Obama administration in any way (either now or later)? I was so angry to hear that the US embassy practicably gave him back to the Chinese where he will once again be tortured or worse.  

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1


No
It's not something thats cut and dry.  Sure in a perfect world we should take him and his family away, but this is far from a perfect world.  Chen has gone back and forth on wether he wants to leave (Yes I know now he claims that was never the case)and to just let him fly off with Hillary could cause some major problems with China.

I think as usual the Administration is doing the right thing taking their time to come to correct decision rather than jumping to conclusions.  Call it "indecisive" or whatever you want, I think the right play here is to get him out of there without causing an international incident.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

[ Parent ]
An "international incident"
has kind of already happened. I don't see how China is going to let him go now.

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1


[ Parent ]
What pro-Obama constituency would turn against him because of it?
Love him or hate him, it's a Henry Kissenger move with a tradition that goes back at least to Metternich.

If Paul Wellstone were still with us, he would have led the outrage against it -- and Jesse Helms would have been at his side.

Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"

[ Parent ]
Good old Jesse
There is nothing better than a Jesse Helms human rights abroad crusade.  I remember an interview with Bono a few years ago when Helms died detailing how moved Helms was moved by AIDS in Africa and other human rights issues.

We just lack the Senators to create such a moral outrage today.  

27, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Yup, Sam Brownback was maybe the last R who focused on "human rights"
And Ted Kennedy was the last D who had such a focus on "human rights" first as policy.

Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"
[ Parent ]
Yes I think it hurts Obama
Because it re-enforces the whole "leading from behind" thing of the US not being a world power but rather kow-tow to everyone including the Chinese.

On a side note I am kind of shocked we havent heard from Jon Huntsman on this. This is his ideal opportunity to gain redemption with GOP and for him to do the right thing by standing up for human rights. As the fmr Ambassador to China in the Obama administration his opinions and critic on this issue would carry tremendous weight. Everyone would listen to what he has to say on this because he knows all the players 1st hand. How he is not out in front of every camera bashing the Obama administration for how they handled Chen is beyond me. He would be doing the right thing by helping a human rights activist and would be endearing himself to the GOP by leading the attack on the Obama administration on this. All Romney would have to say is "I agree with what Obama's frm Ambassador to China has to say on this issue". For him not to be leading the charge on this is such a waste from both a political and a policy stand point.

[ Parent ]
From the "weird political headlines" file
"Nicole Malliotakis' Opponent Doesn't Want to Talk About Fake Dog Testicles"

The story is less interesting than the headline, but still: http://www.politicker.com/2012...

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

Son_of_the_South's Answers
1. He made the least mistakes, had the most name rec, and used his Death Star when appropriate.

2. Pawlenty or Daniels.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home and internship), VA-01 (college)

Fun Maps--
NY 1868. Crazy population imbalances from today's point of view, but pretty equal back then.

NY State whole

NYC 1868

Manhattan 1868

Lol
What were the PVI's of these?

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1


[ Parent ]
I have no idea for Presidential numbers, and I've actually
never found any link that has county-level breakdowns for 19th century Presidential elections anyway. How they voted for Congress in 1868 is in here, page 20ish.

Here.

[ Parent ]
Well
Everything N or W of Albany excepting Erie County would've been R+Enormous. I'm thinking probably R+20 or better given how strong the Republican machine was in Upstate NY. Likewise 1-9 would have been D+Enormous because of Tammany and it's satellites. The Hudson Valley seats probably would've been in swingy territory, with tension between the urban working class in the river towns and the rural element.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
Exactly right.
Generally, everything South of Albany went mostly D (say, 12-3 or so), everything North of Albany mostly R (say 14-2).  
[ Parent ]
Why was that NY-01 Democratic?
There was a similar happening in later years, when Dems still held an SI seat (until the 70s or 80s) and multiple seats in Suffolk County well on into the 80s.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home and internship), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
All of Queens is in it?
That'd do it, right?  
[ Parent ]
Today, yes,
but in 1868, Queens was out in the country, so no.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home and internship), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
LI City
was urban at that time IIRC.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
Good point, but
I'm pretty sure that the farm vote could have easily overwhelmed even a Tammany Hall-esque margin there.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home and internship), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
The divide back then
was less urban-rural than upstate-downstate for the most part. Remember that the GOP was as much a wholly owned subsidiary of the upstate Conkling-Platt organisation as the Dems were of Tammany. My guess is that LI farmers were dependent on selling their goods to city-dwellers and thus had much more incentive to cozy up to Tweed rather than Conkling.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
answers
#1 Two factors:

1. Conservative vote divended between multiple candidates.

2. Differences in the state rules created a playing field that was not level.

Florida: no district allocation/and state representation winner take all

Virginia: Only Romney & Paul on the ballot

Loophole primaries

#2 Looks like Santorum since he finished second as is.

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

Arkansas redistricting trial on Tuesday
Jobs
Down to 8.1% but only 115,000 jobs gained, about 50k below the middling expectations.

Another meh to poor report, it seems the jobs market has really frozen up.  It will be interesting to see if it picks back up in the Summer.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

It will probably be helped by seasonal jobs.


20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home and internship), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
all unemploynent numbers are "seasonally adjusted"
If you didn't take that into consideration, the job market would apparently crash every January and September, while flourishing in November and May

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
Ah. I didn't know that.
You learn something knew and useful every day. Thank you.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home and internship), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
522,000 left the labor force
which is the reason for the 0.1% decline to 8.1%.
This is the lowest labor participation rate in 30 years.

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!
[ Parent ]
Yes
Structual unemployment is increasing at an alarming rate.  I wonder how much of this is workers in the construction trades who are never going to find construction work again.  I would argue you are seeing signs of recovery in states that never had the construction boom or are having a natural resources boom.  Pennsylvania constituted something like 15 to 20 percent of last month's job gains.  Throw in Texas and a few other energy powerhouses, you get the bulk of job growth.  Ironically enough the job numbers are being saved by the industries progressives want to destroy.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
Bonus Thursday Open Thread and Poll | 38 comments
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Elections have consequences -- from the race for President to the race for one seat on a city council. The political economist Max Weber wrote that the state possesses a monopoly on the legitimate use of force. But in the United States, the state is divided into myriad federal, state, and local entities. And the elections to fill those entities are the products of the fascinating interactions between campaigns, party affiliations, voter turnout, and the media spotlight. Red Racing Horses analyzes those elections -- from a Republican-leaning perspective -- to keep a close eye on the process of electing officials, and to offer our perspective on the election-related issues of the day. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog.

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