RRH-LCL: Our site and commentator Left Coast Libertarian received some good attention from the UK Guardian today. Guardian reporter Harry J Enten highlights the difficulties facing the Democrats in retaking the House of representatives:
We have very little polling of the 435 individual districts. We also don't know how voters will react to their new "incumbent" congresspersons because of redistricting. Redistricting generally provided neither the Democrats nor the Republicans with an overall edge in the seat count, but it did shore up Republican incumbents. One of the best analyses I saw of this phenomenon was produced on the right-leaning, but reliable Red Racing Horses, a conservative counterpart to Daily Kos Elections. The writer Left Coast Libertarian studied how the newly configured congressional seats voted in the 2008 election. House votes in this nationalized political environment are highly correlated with past presidential results. There were very few Democratic incumbents who won seats in 2010 in districts won by John McCain in 2008. When you take a look at the chart below, you see the number of seats where McCain did better than he did nationally, R+, and number of seats where Obama did better than he did nationally, D+.
Thanks to the Guardian for the mention and LCL for his work.
Pennsylvania: Enough Mr. Nice Guy with the press... The Daily has an interesting article out on the supposed "Reagan Democrats" in Pennsylvania lacking a home. While the people they describe do exist, actually have these views, and the county seat of the county where my parents live, Greene County, actually exists, their analysis is pretty pathetic. Most importantly, their use of the term Reagan Democrat is out of line. Western Pennsylvania Democrats weren't Reagan Democrats. The 1980s were a horrible time for Republicans in western Pennsylvania with Greene County having a double digit Democrat leaning PVI score! The Reagan Democrats that existed in Pennsylvania were in the blue collar cities in the northeastern part of the state and industrial suburbs of Philadelphia like Bensalem. Being socially conservative and a Democrat does not make you a Reagan Democrat.
Romney-Huckabee: I have not thought of this ticket, but it might not be a bad selection for Romney if he is concerned about the evangelicals not turning up... Mike Huckabee. I am not a huge Huckabee fan, but could live with a Romney Huckabee ticket. I am not sure Huckabee really helps Romney though. Huckabee might work well with blue collar whites, but this war is going to be won in suburban areas.
Greece: Go home and then thank whoever you pray to for not living in Greece at the moment. Monitor this one to get substantially worse before it gets better.
Julia: I cannot stop looking at the various takes of Obama's modern woman, Julia, the 21st century Welfare Queen.
Elections have consequences -- from the race for President to the race for one seat on a city council. The political economist Max Weber wrote that the state possesses a monopoly on the legitimate use of force. But in the United States, the state is divided into myriad federal, state, and local entities. And the elections to fill those entities are the products of the fascinating interactions between campaigns, party affiliations, voter turnout, and the media spotlight. Red Racing Horses analyzes those elections -- from a Republican-leaning perspective -- to keep a close eye on the process of electing officials, and to offer our perspective on the election-related issues of the day. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog.
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