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Morning Political Roundup for May 8, 2012

by: Ryan_in_SEPA

Tue May 08, 2012 at 07:19:36 AM EDT


POTUS

Biden: Not that I think it matters much, but it appears Vice President Biden opened another issue for debate that had kind of become a lesser point of contention this cycle, gay marriage.  With Biden's endorsement of gay marriage, the Obama administration has been put in a weird position of defending a policy largely unpopular within the Democratic Party, opposing gay marriage, while even members of the administration, the Vice President, openly support it.  I am not sure it matters though.  Whites outside the South are moving more and more in favor of gay marriage.

Santorum: Rick Santorum has decided to finally endorse Mitt Romney after their Firday meeting in Pittsburgh.  In a letter to his supporters, Santorum pledges to stay active while endorsing Romney as the candidate to beat President Obama.

Cuomo: Start your 2016 speculation right now... New York Governor Andrew Cuomo is writing a book.  Cuomo is already the subject of two new books.  No doubt there will be more coverage of him as 2016 approaches.

Obama: President Obama is launching a $25 million dollar ad buy running a somewhat positive somewhat negative ad to fire up the Democratic base in swing states.  See yesterday's Morning Roundup for details on the debate that unfolded over it.

Romney: Mitt Romney does not have such a narrow path to the nomination according to Sean Trende.  He basically examines the electoral map from the 2008 version used by many to determine what states are in play and provides a caution when using such an analysis.

Paul: Congressman Ron Paul remains in the race and is plotting a path to the convention.  Apparently Saturday's target is the Oklahoma State Republican Convention.

Congress

Indiana:  Senator Dick Lugar is likely to lose today as he has become the latest target of so called RINO hunting.  Lugar joins a long list of individuals in both parties taken down recently in the hunt for ideological purity.  Lugar's fall has as much to do with ideological purity as his annoying and arrogant behavior.

More Indiana: While Lugar might be falling, the establishment appears to be holding on pretty well elsewhere in Indiana.  This probably reinforces the mantra that Lugar's problems are more than ideological, but his tone and behavior.

Florida: The matchup between Congressman John Mica and Congresswoman Sandy Adams appears to be boiling over into a real nasty battle.  Neither of them dominate the district and it appears it will be a nasty battle going to the August 14 primary.

North Carolina: Another state going to the polls today features what might be the beginnings of several pickups for the congressional Republicans.  The Republicans have a shot at taking 4 seats in North Carolina this cycle and the Democratic Blue Dog coalition might disappear because of it.
Ryan_in_SEPA :: Morning Political Roundup for May 8, 2012
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Morning Political Roundup for May 8, 2012 | 184 comments
House majority PAC
Going up with 340k ad buy for several weeks in AZ-8.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

I'm pretty surprised that the race is competitive considering the circumstances. Now, convince me that Obama has a shot in AZ, also seeing Rs expanding their registration gap.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Christie very popular at 56/33 approval
Highest ever.
http://mobile.nj.com/advnj/pm_...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

NJ-gov 2013?
Yeah, it won't be competitive. Christie will win by 10 points.

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
I find it surprising
how many Democrats like him. You would think his style is polarizing, but that's not the case.

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!
[ Parent ]
People do like honesty and frankness
but it's very tough to be blunt without crossing the line to crazy and/or mean; that's why so many pols of that type turn off everyone that doesn't totally agree with them. Christie is just about the only prominent pol out there that can walk the tightrope of being brash without coming off as mean-spirited.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
That style would be polarizing in Iowa
but in Jersey its endearing
[ Parent ]
Not really
Independents are like women.  The confident guy who has a plan, doesn't shy away from things and acts himself will get the girl every time.  The mushy guy who is constantly pandering and sucking up to the girl will go home single night after night.  The takeaway: a lot of people don't have their opinions set in stone and are attracted to other people that are confident in themselves and what they believe in.

But their is a difference between being confident/ assertive and being cocky/abrasive.  Christie has his game perfected and has seemed to have found that sweet spot.  Others like Bachmann have crossed that line and just come across as mean and pushy to anyone that isn't predisposed to like them.

Saint Paul (MN-4)  

[ Parent ]
Women Approve of Christie 48/39
Men 64/27.  To shamlet's point, Christie is self-deprecating enough that it eases people.  A lot of times where politicians with his attitude fail is that they have no ability to laugh at themselves.
[ Parent ]
Two 2 minute Speeches
that show that line with crystal clarity:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

[ Parent ]
and further..
That reminded me of "Mycongressmanisnuts.com", which Grayson was suing for making fun of him.  Whereas I could see Christie, if confronted with a similar site, posting on it.
[ Parent ]
That is a huge gender gap.
From +37 to +9... wow.

Is that consistent with other polling data and the 2009 election?

Age 42. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.

[ Parent ]
Campaign for primry accountability
Against Rangel. http://www.politicker.com/2012...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Very good news
I'm disappointed they didn't do more against Jones but going in strongly for Espaillat would make up for it.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
Why aren't they going after
Sheila Jackson Lee down in Houston? Outside of Bobby Rush, I can't think of a more self centered, arrogant politician.  

26, IL-7,Fiscal Conservative
[ Parent ]
who's challenging her?
the CPA needs to have a viable challenger (that's why they pulled out of opposing Tim Murphy)

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.
[ Parent ]
The CPA did not pull out
as far as I know. The Club for Growth did however.

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04
[ Parent ]
hm
yeah I think you're right.

Regardless, does SJL even have a challenger?

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.

[ Parent ]
Preparing myself mentally
For a super duper whiny concession speech by Lugar.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Foxboro
In the super-high turnout (58%!) election for 2 Foxboro town council seats yesterday, the two anti-Casino candidates won in a landslide. http://bostonherald.com/news/p...

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
That's good news
There's enough going on in Foxborough already, and that corridor of the state doesn't need a casino since it's only 20 minutes from the one in RI and an hour from the two huge ones in CT. Also, Foxborough is right on the border with the southeastern zone, so there will soon be yet another casino in close proximity (Middleboro or New Bedford).

The smartest thing to do with that zone would be to put one up by the New Hampshire border since there aren't any casinos in NH or Maine, but it looks like Suffolk Downs is now the favorite.

[ Parent ]
The Indian Casino
will be in Taunton, not NB or Middleboro.

I agree Foxboro didn't make a whole lot of sense.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

[ Parent ]
Ah, I missed that announcement
Taunton it is, I don't envy them. I'm just glad it's not on the Cape.
[ Parent ]
Cape needs the year-round jobs more...
But it was never going to be here.  I thought the Fall River site from the Mashpee-Wampanoag plans would have taken more root, but it looks like Taunton now.  Middleboro was close for a spell, as well.
[ Parent ]
Feauxcohantas
Skips Harvard Native American Heritage Luncheon. http://bostonherald.com/track/...

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
The next Ward Churchill
Warren is literally everything I don't like about today's leftists. A rich academia elitist politically correct fraud who lives like the 1%.

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  
[ Parent ]
A true description except for the Churchill part.
Ward Churchill, IMHO, carries a deep, bitter hatred of America and most of its people. Elizabeth Warren is definitely a hypocritical left-wing twit who should be kept as far from political power as possible. But there's no reason to think that she Hates America like WC does.

Age 42. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.
[ Parent ]
CO-5
Lamborn going negative (with IMO a rather weak ad) against Blaha. http://www.theblaharecord.com/

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
eh
That's the heavy R Colorado Springs district, right?

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
Yes
Not exactly sure what this challenge is based on other than personal ambition; Lamborn's been a decent backbencher IMO and hasn't been there forever.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
Bob Blaha responds with this ad:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...
(sorry I couldn't resist)
[ Parent ]
RINO Hunting
I'm not saying ideology doesn't have something to do with some people's opposition to some candidates, but I think that's overblown by people who want to make Republicans look bad. There's a social conservative litmus test which Lugar doesn't pass? Really? Lugar is being targeted, mostly, because he's been in DC for 36 years and many people are tired of the same old same old and want some fresh blood in DC. Same with Hatch.

Is there really opposition to Wilson? Shays opposition is Linda McMahon, not exactly the social conservative poster woman. And really who are these pro-choice libertarians that are out there being denied senate seats?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

NRA
The NRA is going after Lugar pretty hard from what I can tell.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
Hatch vs Lugar
Hatch is likely to win renomination.

But Lugar is likely to fail.

Now; I'm not sure about official scores, but from an outside perspective, it appears to me that Hatch is more conservative than Lugar.

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
You hit the nail on the head
it appears to me that Hatch is more conservative than Lugar.

There's some objective truth to that, but it mostly appears that way because Hatch has run a good campaign and Lugar's has been p*-poor. You need to know your electorate and tailor your message. Hatch did that and Lugar didn't - so to the casual observer Hatch looks much more conservative, even if the ideological difference isn't that great.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

[ Parent ]
ACU Scores Paint a Different Picture
There is actually a fair amount of daylight between Lugar and Hatch ideologically: Lugar has among the worst ACU scores among Senate Republicans; Hatch's are probably better than average for the Senate GOP caucus.

I think the thing that really hurt Hatch was the perception that he liked to play 'footsies' with Senate Dems like Teddy Kennedy. But with Kennedy now gone, Hatch seems to be inoculated from that, so I think that issue was taken off the table for him. Hatch was lucky, in that respect, though I agree he's also run a much better campaign that Lugar and Bennett did.  

[ Parent ]
Lugar is going
because he irritated the NRA for voting like an Illinois Democrat on gun issues. Note to other politicians in pro-gun states: Vote however the NRA tells you to or fear their wrath.  

26, IL-7,Fiscal Conservative
[ Parent ]
That's Just Part of It
Either Lugar's "evolved RINO", or he's stayed the same while the GOP as a whole has evolved away from him, but either way there are a whole host of issues in which Lugar is out of step. His ACU scores are among the worst of any Senate Republican.

When you then add in his attitudinal problems, the guy is absolutely ripe for a take down.

The difference between Hatch, and Lugar and Bennett, is that Hatch was able to correctly assess the situation, and now at least mouths the words he needs to to maintain support. The other two were no longer able to do that (partially, I believe, because they no longer believed it).

But this is not simply about the NRA - that's is giving the NRA way too much credit.  

[ Parent ]
Yup
Foreign Policy for me.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
I don't remember the exact votes he's taken
Was in the nuclear arms reduction treaty that annoyed you here?
[ Parent ]
I also
Don't even remember all the specifics. It happened many times that he wasn't hawkish for my tastes.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
huh?
Mourdock has significant support with Paulites.  From what I've read, Lugar has positioned himself as the hawk in this race (hence the strong support from McCain and other establishment types).  Mourdock doesn't mention foreign policy much; only at the very bottom of his page of his issues page does he state: "Richard believes that military force should be used only when a vital national interest is at stake and that any U.S. mission should come with clearly defined goals and objectives."

Saint Paul (MN-4)  
[ Parent ]
He may position himself
But he's no hawk.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
The very independent
quality of Lugar that dismayed some conservatives won him easy re-election for 5 terms.  

Lugar did cast some moderate or liberal votes but unlike Snowe or Collins he was a loyal republican in big votes.  When it was do or die in the big senate votes over the last +30 years he was there for the GOP.

Yes he cast votes for some gun control measures but those votes would gonna either pass or fail without him.  He loyally voted for every GOP tax plan and GOP budget plan.  Unlike Bennett he did not come with up Obamacare lite.  He voted for Bork and Thomas. Those litmus tests for me and for some those are distant memories or predate their birth but for me they were huge.

If Lugar was 58 instead of 78 I think it would a moot point as he would clearly be winning.  He represents too much of the past right now to win.  

His moderate or liberal votes are not really on "core" republican values as noted he pro life and has voted for GOP tax & spend plans.  He even supported the Reagan foreign policy plans.  He voted for Obama and Clinton Supreme court nominees but I thankful for those democrats who voted for Reagan and Bush court nominees.  That's a hard issue as I think Alito and Roberts were superb.

I am thankful in a way that I do not have to vote for Lugar or Mourdock.  

I might add that Hatch pivoted hard right and really was already to the right of Lugar.  Lugar can could not do it.  

[ Parent ]
77 Lifetime ACU rating
and Lugar's average has been dropping from earlier in his career. Not a full fledged moderate like Snowe/Collins, but not a conservative either. Coats voting record in the 90's ACU area, obviously a better fit for a Republican in Indiana.

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
2nd Amendment
Lugar's always been anti-gun. However the NRA only gets involved when they smell blood AND you are almost always against them. That's the difference between now and before with Lugar.


MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  
[ Parent ]
I guess there is anti-gun
and anti-machine gun.  I consider myself to be pro-gun but even I do not consider the right to bear arms is without limits.  Lugar has cast only a few votes, on guns and only guns, that the NRA disapproves of.  
[ Parent ]
I think the Supreme Court nomination
votes also played into Lugar's F rating with the NRA. He has consistently voted for the semiauto rifle ban and against conceiled carry too. F rating basically means he votes the anti gun position on all or most all votes the NRA grades. They've gone over $1 million in spending against him on TV, and a heavy grassroots effort with their 100,000+ members in Indiana. It obviously will be credited as one of the reasons Lugar loses tonight.

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
The NRA is famous for ignoring their own rating guidelines
If they decide to target someone, they always give them an F regardless of their record. In past elections they've given Lugar a C-, which more accurately reflects his mixed record on gun rights.  

30, Left leaning indie, MA-7
[ Parent ]
Ratings are released every year or session of Congress
So Lugar's has probably fluctuated during his many years. You can find a breakdown of the votes they are scoring him an F on, but at least for this past Congress, that is his record.

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
NRA Press Release
[ Parent ]
Ironically
the NRA is giving Lugar an F on matters that do not involve a vote.

1. Lugar will not sign a letter against UN treaty on arms. I think Obama has refused to sign onto this UN treaty.  It is not up for a senate vote and of course a UN treaty, even if approved, is not binding on USA. So it is not a vote.

2. Lugar will not sign a letter involving the DC gun case.  Exactly how many US senators sign letters involving themselves in Supreme court cases?  Lugar does not approve of limitations on handguns in Indiana or US for that.  DC decided to pass their own gun law so that's a matter of the courts.  

These are nitpicking ways to give him an F.  You think you would rate a US senator on votes that were cast.  

[ Parent ]
Agreed.
I am supportive of the Second Amendment in general and of the NRA in particular, but that does seem like a chicken-sh*t way of giving someone a lower score.

Age 42. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.
[ Parent ]
No, that wasn't what his F was based on
that was just the letter they sent out announcing the endorsement of Mourdock. I have seen their rating system before and they score a number of votes like ACU does to get a grade. There have been numerous votes the last Congress including 2 Supreme Court nominations, semi auto weapons bans, conceiled carry reciprocity etc. that helped to make up that score. If the treaties mentioned had a vote in Congress, they probably would be included in that tally.

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
Anyone that votes for any ban on firearms deserves an F
Lugar voted for that ban on multiple occasions.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  
[ Parent ]
if a vote for any type of ban is an F
how do you get a B, C, or D?

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.
[ Parent ]
That's why my PAC grades differently
I'm on a state level 2a PAC. We have four grades. Acceptable, Unacceptable, Mixed, and Unknown. We grade statements, records, and surveys. Those who do well across the board often get an endorsement either in primary or general depending on situation.

Personally I'd use the B/C/D ratings for those who are mixed to a degree on judges, concealed carry, stand your ground, hunting, and issues like that. Two messups a C if they are right on bans. Three a D. Four an F. One a B. Or one or two bad statements/survey but otherwise good votes a B.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

[ Parent ]
Personally
In a combat situation I would prefer either the UZI or the AK-47 to the machine gun.

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.
[ Parent ]
We...Agree?
I couldn't have said it better.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
I agree
This is a defeat of Lugar's own making. The man has not had a competive election since 1976! Heck it's been 12 years since a Democrat (let alone another Republican) has bothered to challenge him! The man doesnt even own or rent a home in Indiana. Has lost all conections with the local GOP party apparatus. He has had 2 years notice to get his act in gear to handle this challenged and eveytime he opens his mouth he just seems to re-emphisis how out of touch he has grown. He based his re-election on farm subsities, seniority, flag burning and nuclear disarmorment! Great issues for 1988 not so much for 2012. In fact Lugar's choice of issues jsut shows how out of touch he has become.
Hatch has adapted. He's active in Utah. He's in touch with today's issues. This IN election is really more about dinosour hunting than RINO hunting because that's what Lugar has shown himself to be. he's become yesterday's man in his last hurrah.
[ Parent ]
perhaps more important
Santorum's endorsement might encourage those selected on his slates to back Romney in the remaining district/state conventions. (To help avoid additional situations like Nevada's caucus)

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.
Minneapolis Mayir, Minnesota Governor, Minnesota Legislature
http://www.minnpost.com/politi...

Dayton, as expected whipped the squishy DFL votes for the stadium, with the help of Mayor Rybak to get some of the Minneapolis delegation onboard (the Minneapolis DFLers were pretty much opposed to it from the beginning, as a form of corporate welfare)

Zellers took a HUGE credibility hit on this one with some members of his base. I don't see a way for him to remain in leadership come 2013.

Dayton and Rybak put in a huge amount of political capital into this. It would have been a major political setback had the bill failed. Rybak is known to have his eyes set on Dayton's job come either 2014 or 2018, depending on if Dayton follows through on his reelection.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

The vote in MN senate
is uncertain if you believe the press reports.  The deal that passed on Monday had +100 hundred million more in private money(owners) to get the deal done.  I am not sure if the owners will object to this or not.

I understand that there is also a nifty provision that if the owners sell the team, for a profit (should not be hard) that the stae gets even more money.  The stadium deal will clearly be a huge plus for the team so both sound fair to me.

I am not a big NFL fan as Memphis got messed over when Jacksonville and Charlotte got franchises.  They have both been mediocre and weak operations with iffy fan support.  Memphis was used that year as leverage to gin up support for higher bids for other teams.  I dislike how billionaire owners use the leverage of team ownership to get more millions or even billions from tax payers to feather their nests.  

[ Parent ]
Mica v Adams Bitterness
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/...

Adams said Mica promised he wouldn't run against her in the newly reconfigured 7th Congressional District; he insists there was never a deal. Both carry district maps and readily show the color-coded territory, claiming that large chunks of geography already belonged to them.

This is more than personal; it's political.

How unnecessary.

26, R, PA-01.



Rasmussen Reports: Romney: 49%, Obama: 44%
Lousy economy
and lousy poll numbers will go hand in hand til Nov 2012.
[ Parent ]
BUT BUT !!! . . . .
Matt Taibbi tells me the presidential race is already over.  http://www.rollingstone.com/po...

I don't know why they are still bothering to poll this contest.  

[ Parent ]
WP Poll: Timothy Kaine 46%, George Allen 46%
Same poll
Had Obama up big. Either Kaine is a weak candidate (poll has his favs nosediving), or Allen is a good candidate (at 46/31).
Probably both.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
AAs
Might give Obama 98% of the vote, but it doesn't meant that a generic R won't get 10% which is pretty normal. Consistent in polls with this race.

And the Democrat is up 84 percent to 8 percent among African American voters, a commanding lead that still doesn't quite match Obama's 97 to 1 percent advantage over Romney.


24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Very Good News for Allen

This poll is even better news for Allen than the PPP poll.  There, he was getting 21% of the African-American vote, which is completely unrealistic.  I think that he will end up with around 10% of the African-American vote, which is in line with the Post's 8% for Allen (and another 8% undecided).  

My guess is that among likely voters, Allen is up by about 3-4 points right now.  

[ Parent ]
I am really confident in this senate race
Given the standard Allen = Romney + 3 rule that has been showing up in many polls.

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
buh buh buh
Kaine is supposed to outperform Obama!!!!

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
PPP OH poll
Obama up 50-43. 48/48 approval. Mitt very unpopular. Same with Kasich. Reasonable sample. http://www.publicpolicypolling...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

It's a resonable sample
But the amount of conservative that approve of Obama is a joke. Seems to reason that some people were not truthful in this poll.
[ Parent ]
No Way
Gallup swing state poll has the race at 2%. RCP average is 1% lead for Obama, and PPP wants me to believe Obama would thereby be winning by 7% in Ohio?

Sample is more than reasonable, but I think its odd 15% of McCain and Very Conservative voters will be switching to Obama. Maybe Romney has a big problem with blue collar voters, but count me skeptical. If anything, those folks just won't vote.  

R, MA-3

[ Parent ]
That Seems To Be The Story With PPP Polls of Late
The samples aren't obviously wrong, yet he's consistently getting results than can only be described as Obama-favorable.

This just gets me back to my overall point - PPP polls aren't worth [much] until he goes to the Likely Voter screen. Right now, I'm considering most polls "noise" anyway (unless they're polling an imminent (primary) contest...).  

[ Parent ]
Which tends to happen more,
state polls lagging national, or national lagging state polls?  

21, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Rom 8:38-39    
[ Parent ]
neither.
there's no real lag (nor should there be, since state polls are just larger samples of the subsamples of national polls."

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.
[ Parent ]
PPP story XXX
as I am waiting for them to go likely voter.

I have beat the PPP horse into the ground but hey I have a few minutes and a shovel so here goes.

PPP is a registered voter poll but with a kicker.  If I randomly polled registered voters  100 times  I would 30% of the time come with a poll that was GOP heavy or D light.  I have not seen a  "D" lite poll yet from PPP. 100% of time they either match D exit numbers or D registration numbers for a state.   So statwise  the only way to be D heavy 100% in polling is to be bias that way.  Now that is  not a forgery so I am not accusing PPP of making polls up.  I am sure they do not make polls up. That being said the only way you can be 100% D  in registered voter polls is to plan it that way. They are a D pollster and they come up with D heavy samples 100% of the time. As long as you take that in to account with their polling you can be happy with them.  

[ Parent ]
shrug
PPP has been getting far more left results than the last 6 or 7 or so national average polls. Quinnipiac has shown Obama +2 in their past several ohio polls.

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
Qunnipiac's Ohio polls this year:
May 1: O+2
March 26: O+6
February 12: O+6
January 16: O+2

So their most recent one was, but it's not a consistent thing.

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem

[ Parent ]
Quinnipiac in February was Obama +2
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/inst...

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

Quinnipiac shows +2, +6, +2, +2, -1 going backward.

PPP shows +7, +7, +9, and tie in that rough timeframe.

Obviously there are 2 strikingly different narratives here.

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
Closer to home
Today's Election Day in Michigan. Mostly school measures are on the ballot, including an $88 Million dollar tax bond.

I wonder what turnout's going to be. Hopefully not 10-15%.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

Nothing
will enrage Wisconsin Democrats more than Walker getting MORE primary votes than Barrett/Falk.

NY-3
Looks
like there is huge enthusiasm for Walker too!

http://on.fb.me/JZBDIW

NY-3

[ Parent ]
Romney has a "narrow path to the nomination"?
diary typo, I presume.

Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"
Information on Obama's WV Primary Challenger

The article below has some information on Keith Judd, Obama's challenger in today's WV Democratic primary.  Apparently, he opposes Obamacare and disqualifying felons from voting.  The latter issue is probably near to his heart since he is residing in prison right now.  

http://wvgazette.com/News/2012...

Morning Thoughts
Paul: He must be stopped! Ryan, I may need to borrow the tank...

IN-Sen: Lugar is one of Democrats' favorite Republicans. I'll leave it at that.

IN-06: Go, McIntosh! I only recently looked up his time in Congress. This isn't as good as getting Max Burns back would be, but I'll take it.

FL-07: Mica has MEGA BUCK$. He also has a lot of name rec and a leadership position. Adams has represented more of the district recently. I say that the primary is Lean Mica at the moment.

NC-07: I hope that my donations were not wasted.

NC-08: I have no clue who'll come out of this clown car. I'm inclined to support Scott Keadle, and I don't mind his primarying McHenry as much as some people might, given that I too wish to be elected to Congress. I can understand the impulse, and he didn't do it for ideological reasons that I disagree with. He also didn't really hurt the party. That combined with the CfG endorsement and the fact that he almost won SD-23 years ago and 43% against Mel Watt in 2000 (though the 12th was less Democratic back then) pushes me into his camp.

NC-09: I repeat my prediction that Pendergraph will be top vote-getter today, though he may not avoid a runoff, on his strength as a former Mecklenburg County Sheriff.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

MNGOP won't be evicted
http://minnesota.publicradio.o...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

that sirt of surprised me
Thy had a new location in Bloomington picked out, and I understand its a lot cheaper. Maybe this is about optics? I don't know

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
a case of
Boss: Your fired
Employee: You can't fire me; I quit

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.
[ Parent ]
Rasmussen: Brown and Warren Tied Post-Indiangate
http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

Brown 45%, Warren 45%

The floor for both candidates is really high. This is going to be a close race no matter what.

R, MA-3

Confirms that there was indeed movement back to Warren before Indiangate
Although I don't think she ever led by as much as PPP said. Brown has zero room for error in this race; he needs to play everything perfectly to win, and it would help immensely if Warren keeps shooting herself in the foot.
[ Parent ]
Rasmussen
I just have a really hard time trusting any of Rasmussen's numbers now.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
Yeah, Brown has to be nearly flawless in his campaigning.
I was thinking about this the other day, and it occurred to me that he to play this thing out like the special, but over a much longer time period, which is very hard, and requires some lucky breaks. He's getting those breaks so far, but the streak may not continue.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Turnout moderate in NC so far
http://www.therepublic.com/vie...

Says we could hit 37% which would be a record high not passed for 25 years.  

21, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Rom 8:38-39    

Israel
This was genius stroke by N, who now, with 94 of the Knesset's 120 members, heads the largest coalition in Israeli history, thus limiting the power of Liberman, previously his largest coalition power and, no less, limiting the power of the religious parties in the coaltion so that the Tal Law can be replaced by something more appropriate (i.e., compulsory service for the very religious).

With Mofaz now as deputy prime minister the top three spots in the government - including Barak, defense minister - are all former members of sayaret matcal  - the most elite of Israel's special forces units.  

A proud and scared business owner

I disagree with some of your specifics
most notably I wouldn't say that Mofaz has one of the top three spots in the government, as far as I know as a minister without portfolio he has very little power and deputy PM is a weaker spot than VP in the US (not to mention there are 3 deputy PM and 4 vice PM).
I agree that Netanyahu has made the right call politically, personally I'd rather an election though.
[ Parent ]
will Mofaz be punished by Kadima
for going against his previous statement that he wouldn't join the coalition, or is most of Kadima happy about this?

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.
[ Parent ]
No
It was a unanimous party decision. Basic survival. They could have lost 20 seats in the election, so they first get another 1 and half years, plus a chance to change to climate.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Pretty much what I was saying in a single sentence
the vote in Kadima was 28-0 in favour of the "national unity government", the vote in the Likud was 26-1 with Danny Danon as the sole opposition.
[ Parent ]
okay, thanks
I'm going to Israel in July, so I'm trying to understand the politics in a bit more detail before that.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.
[ Parent ]
Livni
Was basically the roadblock for the party joining the government 3 years ago. She's a huge egomaniac and the members hated her for it. Besides that she also ran the party into the ground and is very unpopular. She was recently booted from the leadership by a landslide and resigned from the Knesset.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
BTW
I don't know of your religious/political leanings (I vaguely remember you're Hasidic which should place you in Agudas Isroel) but one of the most interesting stories in the "elections that never were" was what's going on in the religious parties (not the ultra orthodox-hredim). There were 3 religious parties going to run instead of 2 in this Knesset, and that's after years of negotiations between the 2 parties on a merge.
[ Parent ]
On the contrary
Kadima members were running scared, knowing most of them won't be coming back after the elections (currently Kadima has 28 MK, the polls gave them 8-14). There was mighty pressure for Mofaz to enter the government and stall the elections. Proof- Kadima's 28 MK were given 1 Job in the government- Mofaz will be a minister without portfolio and deputy PM (one of seven), Independence 5 MK were given 4 ministers, Jewish Home 3 MK were given only one (minister of science). Just 3 years ago Livny refused to enter the government when Netanyahu promised her an equal number of ministers as Likud (meaning 10-12 ministers, including 2/3 of the big ones- foreign affairs and defence) because she wanted an equal rotation as the PM (2y4m each), whilst he agreed to an unequal rotation (3 years he'll serve, 1y9m she'll serve).
Kadima could be punished by the public though how much lower could it get?
[ Parent ]
PPP IA
O up 10. Up big among indies. Mitt not consolidating Rs. http://www.publicpolicypolling...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

And apparently Branstad ain't so popular...
is PPP at it again?
[ Parent ]
PPP
always finds lower approvals than average.  I'm not sure why. I generally add five to their approvals and subtract five from the disapprovals.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.
[ Parent ]
Yup its PPP
as we see a +20 Obama indie sample.  Yup classic PPP.

[ Parent ]
Obama is getting 70% of the "moderates"?
Obama is getting 20% of conservatives in a state that got rid of 3 State Supreme Court Justices because they upheld gay marriage. Sure.
[ Parent ]
*is also getting*

[ Parent ]
The 70% of moderates figure isn't surprising
The term "moderate" has ceased to have any meaning as a tool of political self-identification. A large chunk of "moderates" are simply liberals who either don't realize they are liberals or don't want to identify as such.

MA-08  
[ Parent ]
True
I'm not surprised that Obama is getting a large part of the liberal moderate vote but at 70% PPP should say WTF when seeing that.  
[ Parent ]
National-State Disconnect
Someone will have to explain this to me. In 2008 Obama won nationally by 7, Iowa by 9, and Ohio by 4. The 5 polls that have come out this month have Romney up on average by 1. PPP hasn't done one but their last poll last month had Obama by 3. So you'd expect some of this to show up in state polls. Yet Obama has a bigger lead in Iowa, 10, and Ohio, 4. You'd think that if Mitt was improving on McCain by anywhere from 4-8 points, he'd be doing better somewhere. Where are Mitt's votes coming from?  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
One state I can think of
AR. Obama might win by 7 again and lose there by 35.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Mitt will probably improve on McCain's numbers
in the Upper South, which is still trending R (much of the Deep South is near-maxed out).

I do also think he'll do better than McCain in New England and probably the entire Northeast all the way down to Delaware and maybe Maryland.

Of course he'll also improve in Utah, Idaho, and maybe Wyoming, although that's near maxed out as well.

The only swing states with a large number of high income suburban voters (Romney's strength) are PA and VA.  That's his major problem.

The disconnect still seems too large, though.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.

[ Parent ]
States are too small
There are 130,000,000 votes. John McCain lost by 9,500,000 votes. If Mitt Romney improves John McCain by 10 points in Rhode Island, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine, Arkansas, Wyoming, Utah, Maryland, Delaware, and Idaho, he will get approximately 1,200,000 more votes than McCain. If we deduct 1,200,000 from Obama, Obama still wins by 7,100,000 votes. He wins by 5.5 points instead of 7.

There's a big difference between an Obama 5.5 point victory and a Romney 1 points victory. You can increase your vote totals in small states all you want and they won't move the needle.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Check This Out (PPP In April/May)
IA: Obama +10 (PVI-D+1)
OH: Obama +7 (PVI-R+1)
MT: Romney +5 (PVI-R+7)
VA: Obama +8 (PVI-R+2)
NM: Obama +14 (PVI-D+2)
TX: Romney +7 (PVI-R+10)
FL: Obama +5 (PVI-R+2)
NC: Obama +5 (PVI-R+4)
CO: Obama +13 (PVI-EVEN)
NV: Obama +8 (PVI-D+1)
National: Obama +3

R, MA-3
[ Parent ]
Interesting
I knew there was some disconnect, but I didn't know it was that bad. Obviously, it means that their national numbers are off, or their state numbers are off. Based on other polling, their national numbers seem about right. There are not that many other state polls that have been taken, but of those that have been, they usually seem to have the most favorable numbers for Obama. Add to that the odd approval numbers they come up with where everybody seems to be less popular in their polls, and there is something really wrong with their state polling.

41, R, NE-1.
[ Parent ]
Here's the thing
When you're doing a national poll you are polling less people in each state than you'd do in a state poll, but you are still polling 50 states. To get an Obama +3 nationally, Romney has to be doing better in big states in the national poll. So what's happening is that PPP is getting one state number in their national poll and a different one in their state poll.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
there's simply a bipolar narrative
One set of polls shows a tied race, and 1 set of polls shows roughly a 2008 race.

People will naturally choose the ones they like. I'm personally content with watching things play out.

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
Obama running scared on SSM
Cancels today's NC trip. http://projects.newsobserver.c...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

He just needs to come out for it
We all know hes for it.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
I had thought he would
But he's playing a tough game of Twister right now. He's putting much more emphasis on the blue-collar white vote than I expected, and if he thinks he needs this segment of the electorate, he's not going to come out for SSM until after the election.
[ Parent ]
he'd rather try to exploit Romney's flip flops
than draw attention to one of his own.

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!
[ Parent ]
Some outside group should hammer Obama over this . . .
with an ad that says Obama refuses to tell the truth about his views to the American people and conclude with "what else is he hiding from you?" regarding his second term.

And/or state that "real leaders stand up for what they believe in.  Why won't Obama?"

[ Parent ]
Never seen a better Scott Brown picture
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

WI-Gov: new anti-walker ad
an outside group I've never hear of called the "Greater Wisconsin Political Fund" is going on the air with this ad:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem

Rep. Joe Wilson's wife goes after State Senator
over ballot bill fix.
http://www.wistv.com/story/181...

SC1-Charleston
Woah. I scrolled over your link and was like
"Joe Wilson is dead?! When did that happen??"
[ Parent ]
This will be a problem for Joe Wilson
Yes, he has a safe seat (McCain 60, Obama 39) and he will be re-elected this year. But even so, I think this is going to hurt him in the long run.

Age 42. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.
[ Parent ]
No
Why would most of the populace care about this or even remember it? Plus, I'm sure he's a hero to many people for the "YOU LIE!" thing.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
It's more subtle than that.
I don't think voters in SC-02 will "care" about this, in and of itself. I think they will Remember it because it is getting a big splash in local media. But I think it will hurt Wilson because it reinforces the impression that he is a source of drama.

Age 42. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.
[ Parent ]
I don't see that at all
Really seems like a stretch to me.

41, R, NE-1.
[ Parent ]
Entertaining stuff
You can tell the hug at the end for the cameras was so both of them would look better after such a public blowup. Her son is state AG too.  

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
I defer to my SC friend
but my thinking is that legislators  are on the bad side of this issue.  I know that most voters in TN would think that legislators stacking the rules in their favor and booting candidates off the ballot would be unpopular.  I am thinking Ms. Wilson calling the legislators out would be a popular move.  This new SC is like being on double secret probation. It seems completely unfair to me.  Now the judges may have not choice but to uphold the law but fix the thing.

I could be wrong and popular opinion could be the legislators kicking people off the ballot so they can run without competition. Maybe the voters also think there one set of rules should apply to legislators and another one to challengers but that's not my gut feeling.  

[ Parent ]
I disagree
I watched the clip and thought good for her. The lady's got spunk. Knocking those candidates off the ballot was just not right and SC should fix the problem. Any State Senator that tries and prevent fixing this for self serving purposes deserves to get yelled at by her!
[ Parent ]
And Knotts
deserves to be yelled at, period. It's a disgrace he wasn't forced out of the caucus 2 years ago.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
His challenger Katrina Shealy
was one of the candidates disqualified. Knotts is a one man wrecking machine for conservative legislation in the Senate, but he has found a way to get reelected as a Republican in a heavily R Lexington County seat. Shealy took 43% in 2008 and had a decent chance of beating him this year in June. She will run in the Fall as a petition candidate if not reinstated, but her best shot was the primary.

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
Obama up 7
http://www.reuters.com/article...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

I find it very plausible that Obama gained a point,
but I think that the actual numbers are not accurate.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
47% Dem; 38% GOP sample...
nm
[ Parent ]
+9D
says everything about this poll.

I do note that its 46-44 on congressinal vote.

Obama seems to be running ahead of D congressional vote.  

[ Parent ]
46-44 Which Way?
D+2, or R+2?

Still, even if it's D+2 on the Congressional Ballot, if that's coming from a D+9 polling sample, I would say that does not bode for Congressional Dems' chances at all.

In fact, it rather implies bad news...  

[ Parent ]
I think it was +2D
but that's relying on my memory.  
[ Parent ]
I just got ALFundraising letter from the RPWI.
It was addressed to me, not to my father, who has donated a lot more than I have over the years. They're really buying every donor list of whose existence they detect even a whiff.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
*a fundraising


20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
I would assume the RNC is probably sharing theirs.

[ Parent ]
Well, I've only ever given to two campaign.
I've given $50 to Ilario Pantano (two donations of $25) and $50 to Amy Weirch's DA campaign, which I'm now working on. Unless they got my name from my subscription to National Review, they probably had to dig deep.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
*campaigns


20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Trivedi
Maybe they got your info from the Trivedi camp, considering they sent you something. (or was it an email?)

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
The Trivedi solicitation
wassolicitation was an email. The RPWI sent me a letter in the mail.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Kirk rehab video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?f...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Let's see how much media attention this video gets . . .
versus, say, Gabby Giffords' video.  

Wait for some Dems to accuse Kirk of exploiting his stroke and recovery for political gain.  

[ Parent ]
A shooting, especially one with multiple victims,
is a more interesting news story. Members of Congress have health problems all the time. It isn't very often that one is nearly assassinated.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
a better example would be Tim Johnson
As a stroke is much different than an assassination.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
Looks good.
It's interesting how what the doctor said (that he'll have problems with his left arm and possibly his left leg) seems to have been very accurate. He's outperforming the media shocker stories though. Good for him.  
[ Parent ]
Excellent
I've known Senator Kirk since like 4th or 5th grade when he spoke to my Cub Scout Troop. He's a smart guy and a good guy; when he first saw me as a Page (he was not my sponsor, another GOP Senator was), he disengaged from a conversation with another Senator and then walked across the floor to give me a fist bump and to say hey. He's an excellent Senator and I'm glad to see him recovering so well.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
Warren's "Cherokee" relative actually.......racist anti-Native American
This story just keeps getting better & better!
So now that 1/32 Cherokee great-great-great grandmother was not Cherokee at all byt was married to a man who rounded up Cherokees and herded them into government-built stockades to ship them off on the Trail of Tears. Warren really is a total fraud.
[ Parent ]
There's a lot of that kind of thing in family histories.
I'm pretty sure that I have at least two lines of Native ancestry, but one of my ancestors, David Hall, also rode around burning villages with John Sevier.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
WOW!


24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
You guys aren't getting this
Elizabeth Warren is Native American because "family lore" says she is. She's not going to be stopped by something stupid like the truth. She was told all her life she was Native American (her aunt told her 100 times that her father had high cheekbones like Indians do!) and that's what's true for her. So no matter what you say she'll put her fingers in her ears and recite how proud she is of her Native American heritage.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
Sometimes, the evidence is pretty clear.
My uncle has black hair and olive skin, traits that pop up every once in a while on my mother's side. My great aunt Denicia had similar characteristics, and started to tan so easily when exposed to sunlight that she earned the nickname 'the Little Squa.'

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Another Colorado comment/update
http://www.coloradopeakpolitic...

If the above is true, it bodes well for CO Republicans in the autumn ...

Youth vote: "Before 9-11 Colorado's young voter turnout ranged from 28% to 31% (Census data). Young voters' opposition to the Iraq war jumped their turnout to 44% and 46% in '04 and '08, making them 10% of all voters. Just 22% of young Coloradans voted in 2010. There is no "anti-war boost" among these voters this year. If young voters shrink from 10% to 8%, that would cut Obama's Colorado numbers."



A proud and scared business owner

Great news from CO
and come to think of it did I link CO's registration stats last week?  I can't recount even with 9 CO offices open for Obama the groundgame is getting more democrats registered.  
[ Parent ]
FYI
If young voters drop from 10% to 8% of the electorate in Colorado, then even if they voted 65% Obama, which they don't, it'd cut Obama's margin by a whopping 0.3%.

Democrat, NC-11
[ Parent ]
you mean 0.6% ??
it would be 0.3% per percentage point decrease.

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!
[ Parent ]
No
All else being equal, the total number of voters would be decreasing accordingly.

So, for the sake of argument.

1,000,000 voters - 50/50 in 30+ voters & 65/35 in 18-29 voters - 90/10 electorate.

30+: 450,000 Obama; 450,000 GOP
18-29: 65,000 Obama; 35,000 GOP

Total: 515,000 Obama; 485,000 GOP - 51.5% Obama to 48.5% GOP

978,300 voters - 50/50 in 30+ voters & 65/35 in 18-29 voters - 92/8 electorate

30+: 450,000 Obama; 450,000 GOP
18-29: 50,895 Obama; 27,405 GOP

Total: 500,895 Obama; 477,405 GOP - 51.2% Obama to 48.8% GOP

This just goes to show once again how this fixation with 'record turnout among young voters' is so off-base when the relative proportions of the electorate are so trivial.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
I think the whole point
of the article linked was that all things would not be equal.  If the number of young voters and minority voters declined we would see a turnout configuration in CO that looked more like 2000 or 2004. In addition polls are currently showing that younger voters are less thrilled with Obama today then in 2008.

Unless I missed the point of the article if say for instance younger voters made up 2% less of the electorate then perhaps voters 40 to 65 would be 2% more of the electorate.

The youth vote was crucial in 2008 as the % of votes  surged and the D % surged.  65% of 10% generates one margin for Obama while 55% of 8% generates another margin.

I think one would 3% (overall) while the other would be .8%.  That would be 2.2%.

So if you see a decrease in the youth and a decrease in youth vote % the difference could be huge.  That's assuming not everything remains the same.  

I did intend to get into this what if game but right now we are seeing weakness in the youth vote for Ds.  That has to be considered good news for the GOP.  I cannot quite put a number on it but the potential huge.  

[ Parent ]
Well
Reading that again, it does cut 0.6% off Obama's margin of victory, but it cuts 0.3% off Obama's total vote percentage, which is what I really meant to say to begin with.  

Democrat, NC-11
[ Parent ]
RRR will enjoy this:
VoteVets is backing Trivedi and has plans to spend for him. They did not do so last cycle, despite spending big elsewhere in PA: http://www.politicspa.com/vote...

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem
Trivedi!1!1!!1!
Manan for 37% of the vote!1!11!! This is a huge waste of VoteVets's resources.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
NY SD-27
WE WIN IN COURT! http://www.politicker.com/2012...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Still
We need to get like 75% of those votes which is quite likely.
Before this, Fidler was up by 87 votes. This is 120-140 ballots.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
119 actually


24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Fidler
challenged votes that a paid GOP operative signed and notarized.  Do they notorize absentee votes in NY?  They used to do for disabled voters in TN.  Either way these should be +90% R.  The common practice is help the voter check the right block and what not. All legal for the impaired voter.  

I think Storobin goes into recount ahead.  

[ Parent ]
The thing here was
That she also got absentees for people that didn't vote absentee in the end and voted rather in person. But as judge ruled, most likely the other ones were disabled or so.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Well, then you need 87%.
This might be a 10 vote race before the recount.  
[ Parent ]
Wrong
About 75%
He needs 88 votes out of 119.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Nah, he's right
Because if Storobin gets 88, Fidler gets the other 31.
[ Parent ]
Yeah...


24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Covered the president's address in Albany today
While it wasn't an official campaign event, Obama's rhetoric sure had the feel of a presidential candidate veering into general election mode. I didn't find his speech memorable, engaging or exciting in the slightest, but it wasn't exactly a bad or offensive address, either. In a way, Obama in more subdued form like this is more refreshing than his eye-rolling behavior with the 18-29 vote.

Cuomo introduced him and seemed more interested in touting his own achievements than Obama's. But you can count on the president begging him to stump in New Hampshire. (Cuomo won't want to, but will once or twice to save face with the liberals who want to see a 2014 primary.)

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

Connie Mack Blogger Briefing
I was just invited on a Connie Mack blogger phone call. I find it odd, as my blog is lightly read and my focus is on California. I've never blogged about Mack or Florida.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
Morning Political Roundup for May 8, 2012 | 184 comments
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Elections have consequences -- from the race for President to the race for one seat on a city council. The political economist Max Weber wrote that the state possesses a monopoly on the legitimate use of force. But in the United States, the state is divided into myriad federal, state, and local entities. And the elections to fill those entities are the products of the fascinating interactions between campaigns, party affiliations, voter turnout, and the media spotlight. Red Racing Horses analyzes those elections -- from a Republican-leaning perspective -- to keep a close eye on the process of electing officials, and to offer our perspective on the election-related issues of the day. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog.

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