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Evening Political Roundup For May 16, 2012

by: SCRep

Wed May 16, 2012 at 17:30:00 PM EDT


Crossroads GPS: Crossroads GPS is out with a new 60 second spot that runs through a litany of Obama's "broken promises" on taxes, healthcare, and the deficit. The $8 million ad buy will be spread over 10 battleground states.

North Carolina: President Obama leads Mitt Romney 48% to 47% in the latest PPP poll of North Carolina. The poll shows some improvements for Romney. Since clinching the Republican nomination, Romney's seen a 13 point improvement in his net favorability, from a 29 to 16 point deficit. Republicans have moved from supporting Romney by an 84-7 margin to a 90-5 one in the last month.

Obama: President Obama and the Democrats raised $43.6 million in April. The $43.6 million is a dip from March, when Obama's campaign and the Democratic National Committee raised a combined $53 million. It does not include several large fundraisers, including one in Hollywood that reportedly raised $15 million, that took place in early May.

Wisconsin: A new Marquette Law School Poll shows Governor Scott Walker with a six percentage point lead over Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, 50-44 percent, among likely voters. This is a similar margin to yesterday's PPP poll of the race. Lt. Governor Rebecca Kleefisch holds a 47% to 41% lead over Professional Fire Fighters of Wisconsin president Mahlon Mitchell in that recall election, with 10 percent undecided. President Obama is tied with former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, 46% to 46%, among likely voters.

SCRep :: Evening Political Roundup For May 16, 2012
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Good news in WI
Wisconsin is, for now, a toss up state in the presidential race. That is great news.  

Not necessarily
November turnout is going to look very different, I suspect.  

30, Left leaning indie, MA-7

[ Parent ]
Uh, If Your Guys Aren't Going To Turn Out To Toss Out Walker...
...what make you think they'll turn out for Obama?!  

[ Parent ]
3 reasons
1) College students.  They'll be in school in November; they aren't now.
2) Black Milwaukee turnout.  They'll turn out for Obama in much greater numbers than they will for the recall
3) A non trivial amount of voters oppose recalls but are Democrats.  I'm in this camp; I'd say it might be anywhere from 3 to 8 percent of voters.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Not true
His vote share matches his approval.
I bet you would have voted against Walker if you lived in WI.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
I wouldn't vote to recall a Governor
under any circumstance (maybe a felony, but even that is questionable)

You don't think Black voters will turn out more in November than in June?

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
I think that they'll turn out more in November,
but the difference shouldn't be huge, maybe a few points of the black vote.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
a few points of the black vote
is a few point of the vote, since they vote Dem 9:1

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
I meant that
black turnout might be different by three or four points. I'm talking about 44% of eligible black voters turning out as opposed to 40% of eligible black voters turning out, so maybe a point's difference in overall results.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
But would you vote for Walker?
Or just stay home?

[ Parent ]
I honestly don't know
I just know I couldn't vote for Barrett.  This is why CA's recall system, while still terrible, is better; they have the "Yes/No" option.  I'm not sure I could live with myself if I voted for a very conservative Republican for Governor, but I also oppose recalls.  So I'm glad I don't live in Wisconsin.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
I didn't look at this poll's internals
But PPP's poll had normal minority turnout.
Anyway, my above point stands. Walker's vote share = his approval.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Walker has a
28% approval rating from minorities, Barrett has only a 67% approval from them. He should be winning in the 90's, but then again, as Mayor; African American unemployment has skyrocketed.

Walker/Martinez 2016

[ Parent ]
I'm fairly sure Walker doesn't have
a 28% approval with them. It's an extremely small subsample.

[ Parent ]
That was from the Kos poll
.....

Walker/Martinez 2016

[ Parent ]
if you have any actual evidence for this
I'd love to hear it.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Only precedent that comes to mind is CA, 2003
A quick check of Wikipedia suggests

Total vote for Gov in '02: about 7m
Total vote in the recall election in '03: about 8m
Total vote for President in '04: about 12m

If that pattern holds true for WI, then turnout will be significantly higher in November.

Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"


[ Parent ]
Hey, TX32GOP
Are you continuing your series?

Representative on Congress: Rep. Turner, OH

[ Parent ]
generic question
Is there any actual evidence that shows that non Presidential elections directly and consistently favor the Republican party, or is this just a meme that people assume to be true?

27, R, PA-07.

the White vote
is always higher in midterm years and off elections than Presidential.

So either:

1) Whites vote more Republican in Prez years and more Democratic in midterms

or

2) Midterm/Off year elections are more conservative.

I'm going with the second.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
well
That's just it; you're just sticking with assumptions, guesses, and polls rather than actual election outcomes.

I'll try crunching some new jersey numbers and see.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
That's true but...
The White vote is usually higher in mid-terms but that doesn't necessarily give Republicans an advantage. In 2006 the White vote went up by 2% and in 2010 it went up by 3%. If Democrats get 46% of the White vote and 80% of the non-white vote you're improving 3% of the vote by 34%. That's worth roughly 1 point. A 1 point Republican advantage is easily made up due to a lot of other factors.

Thus, the electoral is better for the GOP but probably not by enough to be more of a factor than a half a dozen other things.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
don't forget age
Seniors are more conservative than those under 30 and turn out more in off elections.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Generally true but...
Seniors only vote marginally more Republican than the 50-64 group. In most elections since 1988 they are within 2-3 points of the 30-49 group. Even the 18-29 group wasn't that much different until recently.

1988: R+2%
1992: R+1%
1996: R+7%
2000: D+1%
2004: R+6%
2006: R+10%
2008: R+14%
2010: R+18%

If you replace 3% of the 18-29 electorate with 3% of the 65+ group you increase Republican by, at most, 0.6%. So, with Whites, you're talking 1.6%. That's better, but not enough to decide an election.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
right
A drop from Presidential to non Presidential elections is expected.

But New Jersey provides great data on the turnout rate as a percentage of registered voters.

The turnout drop across municipalities across New Jersey is extremely consistent, whether you're looking at Perth Amboy, Newark, New Brunswick, North Caldwell, Nutley, Verona, or Woodbridge. It's always 24%+-2%.

I'll post more as I find it.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
but I'll bet it's still
the more D-favoring demographics dropping off.  75 year olds aren't dropping off as much as 25 year olds, I'm guessing.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Not always
One other factor is state government workers. Many of them are federal and local republicans, but state democrats.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

[ Parent ]
Bad news in RI-1
Cicilline only up 4 in the primary. http://www.wpri.com/dpp/news/p...

25, Male, R, NY-10

Gemma
This guy seems like he is Anthony Weiner potential.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
This Is a Super Longshot, At Best
Even if Cicilline, it was always going to be an uphill climb.  

[ Parent ]
Cicilline would lose Bill Jefferson-style
Recent history is littered with one-term wonders who followed scandals: TIm Mahoney, Nick Lampson 2.0, Joe Cao, Mike Flanagan, etc. Even people like Zach Space and Chris Carney who won in 2006 due to scandal, coasted in 2008, and then were swept out in 2010. Doherty could very easily turn the trick this year if Cicilline survives the primary.

[ Parent ]
Woah.
I didn't even know that Lt. Gov. Kleefisch was a woman! She's pretty good looking, especially for a politician.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

PPP may not always have a 'house effect,'
but I think that they have a 'home state effect.' NC is Lean Romney right now in my book.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

Joe Pitts needs to retire
http://paindependent.com/2012/...

Really?

28, Republican, PA-6


Man
He's dumb.
Though his statement is true. The pea procession is good for a vegetable and a dead terrorist.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
I actually think this story sounds worse than it is
It sounds to me like they just have an out of date form letter.  While bad, it's not like Pitts himself is this out of touch on FP.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Maryland House passes bill to drive out high income earners
and apparently discourage marriage among high earners
In Maryland, at those rates if two people each earn between $75K inclusive and $100K exclusive it's much cheaper to live together without being married than to get married.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Welcome to Pennsylvania
Conservatives from the Baltimore suburbs are welcome in Pennsylvania with its constitutionally mandated uniform taxation.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
awesome
Republicans can add to their solid file on O'Malley 2016.  I hope his liberalism in MD is enough to snag him the nomination so he can be crushed in the general.

[ Parent ]
Easy for you to say
You're not the one paying for it.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Quote of the day
My mother believed and my father believed, that if I wanted to be president of the United States, I could be, I could be vice president.


R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Is that Biden?
Sure sounds  like it.

[ Parent ]
Ding ding ding
When Sarah Palin said silly things it was news. When Biden says it, it's just amusing.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Yougov/economist national: Romney by 4
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_...

Romney: 46
Obama: 42



27, R, PA-07.


With Obama at 42/51 approval, 36/54 on the economy
I'm almost getting 1980 vibes, but for now I'll stick with 1988 as the goal. ;)

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
The problem is that Mitt ain't Reagan
But he could certainly be GHWB

[ Parent ]
The Thing to Remember about 1980
Is that Anderson and Carter's early concession probably skewed the result a bit. The actual generic numbers would probably have been closer to 53-46 as in 1988, if Anderson had not been present. Which ironically might well have made the electoral college extremely close on a uniform swing.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
I talked to alot of Anderson voters
and not many down here were likely Carter voters.  Carter would have certainly been closer in a few NE states.  If anything Reagan would have done better here in the South.  

[ Parent ]
I think
There were two types of Anderson voters. Prelection day Anderson voters, and those who went for him after Carter conceded and they saw no reason to hold their nose. Anderson got 13-14% in the Pacific Northwest, a large chunk of which was probably resigned switching of Carter voters.

The southern states, where polls closed early is probably a better picture of Anderson's actual support and he generally got around 2% there.

Carter probably would have won MA(41-40), VT(44-39) and New York(46-44). Tennessee is hard to say, it was 48.7 to 48.4. As was the rest of the South.

Oregon(48-38) and and Washington(49-38) initially don't look it, but they were heavily effected by Carter's early concession. Though perhaps not enough to change the outcome. Worth noting turnout in Washington went up from about 1.6 million in 1980 to 1.9 million in 1984.

Wisconsin(48-43) probably would not have.

The interesting question though is the Senate races. Church's loss in Idaho was very close, as was NY and both had an hour or or two of voting after the 8:15 PM call.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
I watched election night 1980 very closely
and I suspect +90% of  West coast votes were cast before Carter concession.  The concesson certainly discouraged some but I suspect not that many.  I think most of that talk was disgruntled Kennedy people who never had anything good to say about Carter. I can't see Carter's concession bumping up the Anderson vote.  I suspect that for every Kennedy voter to vote for Anderson there was a liberal/moderate republican who did as well.  

I am convinced that the majority of Anderson votes would have went to Carter nation wide.  Certainly as noted perhaps a NE state or two but very electoral votes would change.  


[ Parent ]
I still don't like online polls.
Convenience sampling is a bad idea.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
shrug
Yougov was better than PPP in 2010.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
45-37 D sample
Though I don't like any leading questions, even if they might not be biased.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
New Heather Wilson Ad
So-So
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

SC1-Charleston

Fox News poll: Obama 46%, Romney 39% - RV
The Obama number looks fine, but
thebut the Romney number seems unusually low. It looks like a slightly too Democratic sample where Leaners weren't pushed enough. If they pushed the Leaners better, Obama would be at about 47-48% and Romney would be in the low 40s

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
It's a D+8 poll
2008 was only D+7, enough said.

Walker/Martinez 2016

[ Parent ]
Adjust
Do D+4 and what do you get?

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
44%-40%
You don't suppose there's something to that, do you? This is crazy. When I make it D+1, Obama has a 1 point lead.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Well...
Their polls this year have been D+2, D+8, D+3, D+1, D+6, and D+8. Their results have been O+1, O+5, O+4, R+2, E, and D+7. Isn't it crazy how Obama surges when there are more Democrats in the poll? You don't suppose there's a correlation, do you? Like maybe Democrats are more likely to vote for Obama? I don't know. Do you suppose that's possible?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Well if the D+8 poll had O+5
That means it's 46-44 Obama. Seems about right

Walker/Martinez 2016

[ Parent ]
The polls
Are all over the place.
We have no clue.
Is this normal, or has this happened in each election?  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
W.H. editing Obama policy plugs into official past president bios
http://www.foxnews.com/politic...

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

"Orwellian"
Unfortunately, that a word that can be used to describe more than just this Obama Admin. bit...  

[ Parent ]
Deb Fischer a moderate?
Compared to who...
http://hotlineoncall.nationalj...

SC1-Charleston

Reid Wilson's Grasping at Straws
I saw DKE trying to peddle this line too. I have no doubt that Fischer will end up voting more conservatively than her fellow Senator from Nebraska.

[ Parent ]
Bet she's a 95 ACU'er
I have seen nothing to suggest she's moderate on anything.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Johanns
I didn't realize his ACU score was low.. I mean, this is Nebraska....

[ Parent ]
3 years 70, 80, and 85
81.67 average. Thought it would be a little higher myself.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Me too
What in the world is he voting for/against that is lowering his score?  I can't recall anything he's defected on.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
In 2011
Davis Bacon Act, Ethanol Subsidies, A couple of bad votes on nominations, debt limit increase vote.  

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
I see the basis for all of those individually, except
theexcept the Davis Bacon vote. Where the heck did that one come from?

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
One thing that might be able to explain it
is that Johanns has received more union support than most Republicans do. He was endorsed by the Lincoln Firefighters Union for re-election as governor in 2002, a rarity because they almost never endorse Republicans. He was also endorsed in that race by the Nebraska Education Association(teachers union). Those endorsements may have been due to the fact that they knew he was going to win big, so they figured they would just get behind the winner in hopes that they would get more favorable treatment. So that background may have played a part in that vote. I'll admit is a rather curious vote-Kirk and Murkowski were the only other Republicans to vote that way on the issue. I don't recall ever hearing any kind of explanation from him in the media for his vote on that. It certainly never received much attention.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
This is pretty normal for a Nebraska Republican
People think that because we are such a deep red state, that we elect a bunch of solid movement conservatives. It's not true and never has been. Nebraska Republicans tend to be solidly conservative on social issues, but somewhat more moderate on economic issues. But despite conservative ratings scores, you will rarely see a Nebraska Republican desert on any major issue. Even Chuck Hagel, for all the talk about how moderate he was, only really deserted the party line on the Iraq war.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
All of the things they mentioned in the article that she is "moderate" on
are relatively minor issues that can be explained. Her big pet project in the Legislature has been road funding, something near and dear to her heart because her father once headed up the Nebraska Department of Roads. That's where the gas tax increases came from. And personally, I have no problem with increasing the gas tax to pay for roads projects because it is basically a user fee.

The conservative groups that attacked Bruning did so because they feared that his previous liberal beliefs meant that his conversion to the conservative side was not real and a matter of convenience. I believe it's a ridiculous charge, but I'm guessing Stenberg probably told them that as he thought that was the best line of attack to use against him. I don't know how much they considered Fischer's record, but they clearly saw Bruning as a bigger threat. If the CfG was really that worried about Fischer, they could have attacked her too. They had to see that Stenberg was going nowhere in the polls(they should have known that from the beginning), so they had to know that their attacks on Bruning would only serve to help Fischer.

42, R, NE-1.


[ Parent ]
Once again, someone who has no idea what they are talking about
acting like they do. It really never ceases to amaze me how little these national writers understand about Nebraska.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
Nate Silvers take on the senate.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n...  

22, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Matt 6:25-34    

Environment
While I respect Silver's skills with statistics, his evaluations sometimes leave a little to be desired. Yes, one party won nearly every lean and toss-up in 2008, but it wasn't because circumstances changed dramatically before the election. The forecasters were too cautious.

In 2010, Republicans failed to win several seats that were regarded as lean/toss-up right now. These included DE, CT, CO, NV, and CA.

While the ratings may change, I can't foresee an event that'll dramatically change the senate environment. Mark Foley and the meltdown weren't foreseeable, but Foley was the last of the scandals and the economy was already hurting McCain before the meltdown.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
I have several problems with his analysis
First of all, he fell into the trap I figured some Democrats would, but I expected an analyst to think better. He automatically moves Nebraska from Likely to Lean Republican just because "Deb Fisher"(sic) wins the nomination. He does so based on lack of experience. Ask me how much candidate experience meant to Kelly Ayotte. Or Ron Johnson.

Other problems-he moved California from Likely to Safe Democrat. Why wasn't it Safe Democrat in the first place? Was there anybody who ever thought Dianne Feinstein was in any kind of danger? And why was Texas ever Likely Republican instead of Safe Republican from the beginning? He says he moved it to Safe from Likely because the Democrats failed to recruit a good candidate. Well who did he think they were going to recruit?

42, R, NE-1.


[ Parent ]
David Dreier
Had Dreier committed I could see Feinstein as an 85% favorite instead of 95%. There are a number of Republican congressmen who'd be a long shot. Come to think of it, Mary Bono Mack would be in the ballpark against Boxer in 2016 in a good Republican environment. She's a strong candidate with moderate appeal. Assuming she lives in California.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
In CA
Any Republican running would need to be well known with high positives. Neither Dreier or Mack have high name id, and won't be able to raise enough money to build that name id. Our only hope to win statewide is to have someone that is famous (i.e. the way Arnold was in 2003) or someone with money (i.e. someone like Whitman, but with better candidate/campaign skills). Of course, if there is a pol out there that is skillful enough to raise the money the old fashion way, that could work too.  

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
How did that work out for the GOP?
Self-funders are bad bets to win. People won't donate to them and are less likely to volunteer for them. They think that she doesn't need their help because she's throwing around so much money. They fail to make a connection.

Dreier might not be well known everywhere in the state, but not many people are. He's been in congress a long time. Bono Mack is Sonny's widow and everybody knew who he was. I don't see that as being a big stumbling block.

I don't know how many politicians can raise $20-$30 million but both Bono Mack and Dreier have raised money. I'd take either over a deep pocket.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
I'm not saying
That being a self funder guarantees you anything. But, in CA, it has become so large and expensive that you either have to start off well known or need to have the resources to become well known. That is my point.

Being a member of congress who can barely raise a couple million during a competitive election cycle (i.e. Bono Mack), probably means that you cannot raise like you say, 20-30 million to run statewide.

Unfortunately, I think for the GOP to win in CA, the candidate would have to be one of three types of candidates: celebrity, self-funder, or someone with deep money connections to raise the resources that are needed.  

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


[ Parent ]
RNC to bypass NV GOP
http://politicalwire.com/archi...

22, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Matt 6:25-34    

Hopefully Sandoval can help clear the deck.


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Romney can't win Nevada anymore
The entire state GOP organization is Paul folks who are ardent state rights supporters. Romney will lose because 20% of Republicans won't vote for him.  

27, IL-7, Fiscal Conservative

[ Parent ]
sounds like inside baseball
General voter won't know or care about the problems with the Nevada GOP party. Most wouldn't even have attended the first round of the caucuses.

Presidential campaigns carry their own money, and the GOP candidates for congress & senate should be okay; but its the state legislature I'd be concerned about with the disarray.


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
+1
The legislature is what we should be worried about here.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Romney & RNC Raise $40.1
Only 2 million short of Obama/DNC.  May should tell a better picture, but thats not promising for Obama and co.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Agree
Because with all the dark money back Romney, it is arguable that Obama is being outraised.

I am curious how the gay marriage thing opened Obama to more fundraising.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
Part of it
Is still from before the R rank and file started to fall behind him.
If you include even one R PAC, Rs outraised a sitting president.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Yea
Which is very bad for my side.  I'm going to need to see a monster month to regain any confidence in the fundraising side.  I'd need to see Obama raise like $70-75 Million in May, because Romney will likely break $50M will a full month with the RNC.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
White births now a minority
Only if you don't count . . .
any White Hispanics or "mixed race" people as "white".    

[ Parent ]
Ricketts & Co. To Hit On Wright
NYTimes says they are waiting on approval, I assume from Romney and Prebus, but if they hit Obama on Wright (And this ad will hurt, the Times article shows Ricketts playbook), all bets are off.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

This will certainly shake things up
link:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05...

Saint Paul (MN-4)  


[ Parent ]
North Dakota Poll: Berg 51% Heitkamp 44%
From the Forum Communications Co. poll conducted between May 3-8... http://www.inforum.com/event/a...

Primary noise
could be hurting Berg a bit in this poll.  I dislike how some pollsters still poll Romney versus Paul or even Paul v Obama then polls Romney V Obama.  It puts in the person's mind the thought "should I with hold my vote for Romney because I really like Paul?" Berg is clearly the establishment candidate and in a primary matchup that means 20% of primary voters will kneejerk vote against him.  Just listen to Beck or Limbaugh rant against the establishment.  

I just wonder if they polled Berg versus H without a primary poll or offering Sand V H the result would be a percent or two different?  


[ Parent ]
I don't worry about this race
Obama will pull Berg over the finish line if it's close.

[ Parent ]
Independent poll
Over 50%, in state Obama will lose big. Likely/safe R.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Great stat here
Heitkamp is winning the over 65s while Berg more than makes up for it with younger voters. More credence to my theory that the Prairie Populist is to the first quarter of the 21st century what the Dixiecrat was to the last quarter of the 20th.

I have a hard time seeing this race much closer than 54-45. The GOP floor in ND used to be very low, but it's rising rapidly with the new energy dependent economy.  

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
Poll
Many on Twitter are saying this is a bad poll.  Something about its only likely Primary Voters and something about Indies.  Was on my way to work so I couldn't get too indepth with it.

Any thoughts on that?

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
It's a poll of "likely primary voters"
There's only a contested primary on the R side, so I'm feeling a little skeptical here. Probably a few points closer.

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
No
Berg is at 65% in the primary poll. It's in no way contested.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
OK, first I'd just like to point out that
it is "contested" because Duane Sand is contesting it, whether or not somethings "contested" has nothing to do with it being close -- so I wasn't saying that and didn't intend to. Secondly, He's only leading 65-21, to dismiss the effects of only one side having a contested primary as negligible, for me, it would need to be a real coronation ala Pat McCroy (who broke 80% in polls and if I'm not mistaken broke 90% on election day) if his opponent is breaking 20% I think it would cause a noticeable effect on a poll of "likely primary voters" in an election where the other side is a total coronation (there is no one on the ballot but Heitkamp) and it seems silly to disagree. Of course voters will skew Republican when in effect Republicans are the only one holding an election that day. Why poll "likely primary voters" for a general election matchup anyways? The election isn't on primary day, it's on election day.

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
The poll is weird no doubt
But primaries that aren't competitive don't tend to draw people to the polls even if someone else is also on the ballot.
I have no doubt that Berg is ahead.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Sounds pretty accurate to me
This race could be a bit like the Presidential race in ND in 2008. A few polls show it competitive, the national Dems show a passing interest, the media drives the narrative that it's a tossup, but in the end the Republican wins by a healthy margin (8-10) by uniting the traditional GOP coalition.

[ Parent ]
What happened in NC
last week?

In a state where are 33% more registered Ds primary turnout was more or less even.  Romney and Obama both had primary walkovers while the D's had a highly contested Gov primary.  

Sounds like Rs are motivated.  


[ Parent ]
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