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Morning Political Roundup for May 22, 2012

by: James_Nola

Tue May 22, 2012 at 08:00:00 AM EDT


President

Romney: Last week, Woody Johnson said the Romney campaign would announce a counter to Obama's Clooney fundraiser, but with someone even bigger than Clooney. Could this be it? Darth Vader himself will host a fundraiser for Romney. The former VP and his wife will host Romney at their Jackson Hole, WY home in July.

Oklahoma: Romney leads Obama 62-27 in the Sooner State according to The SoonerPoll.

Ohio: Despite calls from former Democratic Rep. Harold Ford, Democratic Newark Mayor Cory Booker, and his own former adviser Steve Rattner to end his attacks on capitalism, President Obama's team is doubling down, adding $29k to an Ohio ad buy slamming Romney for Bain.

Santorum/Gingrich: I hope those extra few weeks of attention were worth it for Santorum and Gingrich, who ended their campaigns with $2.3 million and $4.8 million in debt, respectively.  

Senate

Texas: Ted Cruz is closing in on David Dewhurst, one week ahead of the primary. According to a University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll, Dewhurst leads Cruz 40-31 with former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert at 17% and former ESPN analyst Craig James at 4%.

Missouri: Same story, different year. One year after she faced trouble for unpaid taxes on her private airplane (clearly a 99%er), Sen. Claire McCaskill is late on the taxes for her DC condo. Is there any race in the country where the candidates on both sides are so clearly flawed?

Ohio: I think we may have a sleeper for most expensive Senate election in 2012. With two high powered fundraisers on both sides and millions already being spent in Ohio, it could beat out VA and MA. Majority PAC, the Democratic Congressional Super PAC, has added $300k to its ad buy attacking Republican Josh Mandel. This brings their buy to $600k

OH-Sen, OH-16: This could be trouble for Republicans. Treasurer Josh Mandel and Rep. Jim Renacci are being investigated by the FBI for contributions from employees Suarez Corporation Industries.

Maine: FreedomWorks has endorsed Treasurer Bruce Poliquin for the Republican Senate nomination.

House

New York Primaries: New York has moved its primary to Thursday, September 13th, to avoid having the primary elections coincide with the 11th anniversary of the September 11th attacks.

New Congressional Lines: Cool map from Google showing all of the new lines across the country (Except KS!!!).

FL-06: FreedomWorks has endorsed Navy Vet Ron DeSantis in the open 6th district. DeSantis faces former Ruth's Chris CEO Craig Miller, state Rep, Fred Costello, and JAX City Councilman Richard Clark in his primary.

NJ-09: It appears House Democratic leaders favor Rep. Bill Pascrell over Rep. Steve Rothman in this member vs. member battle. Assistant Minority Leader Jim Clyburn and Democratic Caucus Chair John Larson have given a total of $9k to Pascrell.

CT-05: Sen. Andrew Roraback won the endorsement of the state GOP this weekend with just over 50% of the convention vote. Businessman Mark Greenberg, businesswoman Lisa Wilson-Foley (who placed 2nd, just 40 votes behind Roraback), and former Rob Simmons' aide Justin Bernier all qualified for the primary ballot by receiving more than 15%.

States

Indiana Gov: Democratic nominee John Gregg has chosen longtime Sen. Vi Simpson, the current Senate Minority Leader, as his running mate. Simpson briefly ran for Governor herself in 2003.

PA State Sen: Former rising star, Sen. Jane Orie, has resigned from the Senate in disgrace after being convicted in a scandal involving her sister's 2009 Supreme Court campaign. Orie was once the Senate Majority Whip, the highest ranking woman in PA's government. In 2009, she was recruited by the NRSC and Rick Santorum to primary Pat Toomey for Senate.  
James_Nola :: Morning Political Roundup for May 22, 2012
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Morning Political Roundup for May 22, 2012 | 201 comments
Does anyone know of an employer
That hasn't fired an unneeded worker to maximize profits?
You don't fire an employee if you need him. This is capitalism 101. It's not a secret that many (not all) Ds want a stripped down version of socialism.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

yes, but not many
and all are non-profits.

I do agree with the overall statements.

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Non-profits?
They've all had major declines in revenue and laid off a lot of people in the last 4 years.

Lefties have a skewed view of the business world. Every employer is making profits hand over fist and could afford to give the employees raises. They're just selfishly making profits they don't need and keeping the money for themselves.

I imagine that's changed for some of them, as their employer going out of business is a sign profits aren't so great and maybe he doesn't need you.

They believe that the economy is demand driven. If employers would just pay people more, they'd spend more, and the economy would boom. They sight Henry Ford saying he paid his employees more so they could afford to buy his cars. Ford never said that, but it makes sense to them.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Yes
Though there's often good business reasons not to fire people just because business is slow.  If things pick up again, it can be difficult to hire and train new workers fast enough. Having high turnover can be bad for employee morale or cause you to lose accumulated domain knowledge. Lastly, your unemployment insurance premiums are higher if you have a cyclical hire and layoff model than if you keep people for the long term.  

30, Left leaning indie, MA-7
[ Parent ]
Yes
But you aren't really referring to this instance. You are mentioning instances where the boss doesn't want to fire employees because he needs them or might need them.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
My point is that it's a more complicated decision
The purpose of creating a less free labor market, like in Germany for instance, is to skew the equation in favor of retention. This has downsides, of course, like making it harder to switch jobs or get a permanent position in the first place, but that's what the debate should be about.  

30, Left leaning indie, MA-7
[ Parent ]
What kind of work?
In my experience companies don't do lay offs until they financially have to and it makes no sense keeping them on. I'm going to assume you're talking about factory work, since offices rarely have to hire that quickly, labor is already skilled and takes about a day to figure it out.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
Engineering work on contract
It often makes sense to put someone on internal research and development until more contract work comes along, though you can't do that forever, so eventually, if there's no work, you have to let them go.  

30, Left leaning indie, MA-7
[ Parent ]
Contract work
I've been on contract most of the time for the last 15 years. I'm valuable because they know I'm skilled and can be up to speed quickly.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
Lots of programmers are on contract
That includes myself. My job is to work myself out of a job and move on to the next one.
The lack of job security is reflected in my bill rate.

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.
[ Parent ]
MO
The flawed Republican for a statewide race for this year was Kinder who was running for Governor but dropped out months ago after "random acts of Kinder".

There's really nothing wrong with the Republican senate candidates (except for out of state folks wanting them to raise & spend money faster)



41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

Romney VP timing
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

27, Republican, PA-6
Pretty obvious
that 8/20, +/- a week or so, is the target rollout date. I think that becomes the new normal in VP selection timing from now on. You don't want the story to be buried in the dog days of summer.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
past 5 ABC polls
May: D+10
April: D+11
March: D+4
February: D+11
January: D+7

May: Obama+3
April: Obama+7
March: Romney+2
February: Obama+6
January: Romney+2

When you stack Democrats up to heavy levels, Obama takes a lead. Who knew?

He's still lost ground.

26, R, PA-01.



How do you get
A D+10 when they don't weight? It baffles me.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
how do you get it
3 times, is the question.

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
Assuming truly random polling
It suggests an enthusiasm gap.

aka, if more Ds are willing to answer polls, then polls will show more Ds in their samples.

Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"

[ Parent ]
possibly
Of course, Ras gets the opposite (GOP heavy polling), and their results get skewed.

One wonders how that logic works only in 1 direction.

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
Harder to tell with Rasmussen
at least for non-subscribers. Without consistent access to their internals, there's no way to know what they're doing differently from other pollsters.

Is Rasmussen the only pollster that's so typically "GOP heavy?"

But as for one direction, if the people who respond to polls in general are of one political bias, then I suggest that's an indicator of enthusiasm, and --potentially-- relative turnout.

Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"

[ Parent ]
well I can tell you
They tend to have electorates roughly 3-4% more Republican stacked. They're not the only one; I think Gallup has been accused of doing the same thing.

A couple weeks ago David Axelrod was trying to dismiss claims that Obama was 'behind'. Today the opposite is being claimed.

Heck, in Wisconsin, the Democrats were supposed to have the 'enthusiasm edge' after rallying 1 million signatures. Today the opposite is being claimed.

I have no idea whether ABC is trying to set a narrative, but they're the only ones (and I guess PPP) that get such consistent Dem leanings. I have no idea why, but I don't think that any one side is 'inherently' more likely to answer polls, or why this enthusiasm gap would bounce like that from month to month as it does for ABC.

Shrug.

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
Yup, a lot of what we write here is guesswork
colored by wishful thinking, tempered by biases filling in the gaps when data is lacking.

I want to think that we here at RRH (and at DKE) make better educated guesses, with less bias. But there is no reason to suggest that us political nerds are completely objective (though many of us do our best).  

Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"

[ Parent ]
oh, I agree
One of my pet peeves, and everyone does it, is starting with an assumption and working backwards.

In Wisconsin, for instance, the assumption (today) is that Republicans are 'enthusiastic' as you put it, and thus more likely to answer registered voter polls (the opposite of the nation at large?), and hence Walker is leading in stacked Republican polls.

It ignores the possibility that Wisconsin simply has more Republicans today than it used to.

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
This is a totally good example for why pollsters should provide
crosstabs. WaPo offered the choice "Other" in their poll, which 7% of people took. It's totally possible that these are stacked with Tea Partiers and Libertarians who would otherwise have chosen the R option. But without crosstabs, we don't know.  
[ Parent ]
Woody Johnson
Do you think if Democrats knew that Woody Johnson is far more active in the Republican party than the Koch brothers they'd boycott the New York Jets?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
I'm a huge Jets fan
And while I won't boycott them because I love them, I certainly am less inclined to buy Jerseys and such.  Then again I'm also older so that plays into it.  I am not a Woody fan at all.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
I may be judging you
I'm guessing you're actually a rational human being who doesn't boycott every single company that the CEO disagrees with your thinking. Of course there's no reason for you to not buy a jersey. He provides you a good product, I assume, at a good price. What he does with his money is his business.

Imagine if Republicans boycotted the way Democrats do. Fox would be the only Hollywood studio still in business.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Republicans boycotting
I actually thought about dropping my GEICO insurance because of Buffett, but when I realized I'd have to pay more that idea went out the window.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
PPP's newest national poll is
Obama up 1

http://dailykos.com/weeklypoll...

Not sure if this is old or not cause it says it was concluded the 20th.  

21, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Rom 8:38-39    

Is this the PPP/DKE poll?

[ Parent ]
Yes


21, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Rom 8:38-39    
[ Parent ]
Closest they had it in ages


24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Romney's getting 40% of Hispanics
If he does this well on election day, he wins.  

26, IL-7,Fiscal Conservative
[ Parent ]
Thoughts
Why are Hispanic undecideds so much lower than everyone else?

Romney winning Native Americans?

Obama winning the below Poverty vote and the rich vote but not the lower middle to middle class?

Are most of these normal or just high MOE things?

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

[ Parent ]
Well, with the NA thing,
you have to realize they only contacted 10 total NAs.

The others, I'm not sure about.  

21, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Rom 8:38-39    

[ Parent ]
Well maybe PPP stopped counting Elizabeth Warren as a Native American
so that might have cost Obama a point in the poll.
[ Parent ]
native americans not a monolith
I was going thru South Dakota the other day, some of the reserverations were carried by McCain while others were carried by Obama.

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.
[ Parent ]
It's not all Pine Ridge
In Michigan, the counties with the most Chippewa votes are only slightly more democrat than most other nearby areas. The one majority NA municipality township (Bay Mills) is about 53-55% dem consistently , the 2nd highest in Chippewa County.

The township isn't all reservation, but even that's probably 62-38 at the most, unlike Menominee County in Wisconsin. Some of the other significant NA areas (20% or more) off reservation in the UP actually often go GOP, like St Ignace which is like most tourist areas in the UP.

Also speaking of the NA vote in SD and ND for that matter, will inroads in their vote be made with the oil boom in Williston? I'll bet money that some of the West Texas GOP Mexican vote is due to oil workers wanting to keep their jobs.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

[ Parent ]
Native Americans
If thy sampled Oklahoma Natives, then Romney would likely win. And with such a small sample size (someone mentioned n=10, but I cent check cross tabs at work.) If 10 is the right number, the MoE is +/- 30%. In other words, that data point is useless and should have been omitted. This is using an approximation of MoE = (n^-0.5) which is a crude approximation for a 95th percentile MoE. 270 may object to this, as it really isn't the best way to do it, but it is a quick reference for those who want to do it in their heads (or a simple calculator if you don't have a mathematical brain)

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
Heh, no objection in principle.
I just find that the actual formula is almost easier to calculate in your head. For n=10 and Obama gets 50%:

.5*.5/10 = 0.025, take the square root ~0.16, times 2: .32, MoE 32%.

FWIW, this is something people don't intuitively get, the same thing if we had 10 African-Americans breaking (I know this is mathematically impossible, just ignore that) 96-4 Obama:

0.96*0.04/10~0.004,sqrt ~0.06, times 2: .12, MoE 12%

The MoE gets drastically smaller as the result you get approaches 100%. This should be intuitive, but no one ever considers it. Like, polling a Baath party election is easier than a US presidential race.

[ Parent ]
"Obama winning the below Poverty vote and the rich vote but not the lower middle to middle class? "
Isn't that how most elections turn out?  Democrats win the rich and poor, the GOP wins the middle class.

Atleast that's what happened in 2008.

Saint Paul (MN-4)  

[ Parent ]
And at least among whites
I'd expect that trend to become even starker. Democrats have basically made a conscious decision to target only minorities and the richest and poorest 10% of the white vote, while Republicans have more or less made the exact opposite strategic decision.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
+5 D poll
blend is clearly a PPP goal.  You do not get to 400D and 350R in a 1000 person poll by  just rolling dice.  Clearly that is more reasonable then +10D like the WAPO poll.  I hate to harp one more time but hey its my weekly poll post.

1st RAS polls people and determines who is more or less likely to vote.  That does  get you a certain poll result and with 500 person samples you might get some very R results.  You might also see results jump around a bit.

2nd while RAS polls and determines who is likely or unlikely to vote Jensen determines that while he sits in his office.  This month it was 400D-350R for his poll.  That's +1 for Obama.  He could have determined 420D-330R and that might have been +5 for Obama.  So some folks are peeved at RAS for finding likely voters pool to be leaning republican while Jense at PPP is just making up his own partisan blend.  No that does not mean PPP is making up polls he is just hardcoding race, sex, age and partisan makeup.  Just as he has a goal of 53% female he has a goal 40%D-35%R. You just have to view his polls in that light.  

[ Parent ]
Wait, what?
"You do not get to 400D and 350R in a 1000 person poll by  just rolling dice."

Why? Unless you're assuming the number of self-id'd Dems and Reps is the same, which it hasn't been basically ever, that result isn't particularly unlikely through sampling.  

[ Parent ]
self-id'ed reps and dems
Allegedly per gallup tied up in 2004. Of course registration in the 30 states that have partisan registration still favored the Democratic party even then.

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
Swing Voters and Elastic states
This is a great piece.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n...

26, R, PA-01.



Very interesting
It really challenges the notion of a swing voter.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
Biggest myth in politics
The biggest myth in politics is that the swing voters is always a pigeon holed social liberal in the suburbs...and that they are all the same. That is the case in some areas, but not all, and not most.

What I like is how a bigger name pundit is now mentioning the effect of how turnout factors in. I learned how important it is from working on May school elections which has a whole different dynamic to it.


MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

[ Parent ]
i think some feed into it
With talk of "floors" and "ceilings" for candidates, when all they are is a guess at what's happened in the past. :45% will vote for X, 45% will vote for Y, and we have to fight for the 10% in the middle."  That's the exact wrong way to look at it.  It's 3 dimensional, not 2 dimensional.
[ Parent ]
generally
This country seems to have fewer swing voters than it did 40 years ago.

As a result, elections have been more about pushing turnout. See Bush 2004.

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
Interesting


24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Fascinating piece
Definitely one of the better columns written elections this year.

Saint Paul (MN-4)  
[ Parent ]
OH-Pres
This buy is small, and of course they're doubling down. This is Ohio that we're talking about, province of the out of work factory denizen.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
Why are they out of work?
Mitt Romney is not the reason these people are out of work, but Barack Obama's policies are. I hope the Republicans will make sure everyone understands that.  

Male, LA-06/LA-01 (Home is where the heart is)
Cassidy, Tillis, Rounds, Latham for Senate!  
[ Parent ]
Well
I would argue George W. Bush's policies are why they are out of work.  I think you can argue (Although I would not agree) that Obama's policies have kept them out of work, but not the other way.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
No need for a Democratic response
to everything.

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
Which Bush policy put them out of work?
I can't figure one.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
best argument to an Ohio swing voter
is to blame outsourcing and generic corporations. Multinational Corporations are probably less popular than either party in Ohio, at least the blue collar areas.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.
[ Parent ]
Multi nationals
like Proctor & Gamble or GM or Marathon oil are beloved in Ohio.  Ditto for Parker Hannafin--Matco or Firestone/Bridgestone.  Can you please tell one manufacturing company that is hated in Ohio? How about Honda?  The 4,000 auto workers at their plant certainly do not like them.

I think the Bain attacks will last about a week.  

[ Parent ]
populism plays well in Ohio
look at Sherrod Brown.  People don't love the CEOs of all those companies, they like the products.  There's a big difference.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.
[ Parent ]
populism played well in Ohio in 2006
and 2008 but not so well in 2000-2002-2004-2010. So now we are going from not liking multinationals to CEOs?  

Howard Metzembaum was the multi-millionaire CEO of a business.  He got tons of blue collar votes. I think this is a misread of Ohio.

Of course I do not blame Obama and the Ds.  It is literally the only line of attack that Obama has.  Oh I guess the abortion arguement will saved for the fall but this is the only arguement they have.  

[ Parent ]
I don't think it's a misread of Ohio
look at how poorly Romney is polling there compared to other equally swingy states like Florida.

Florida is a great Romney fit: tons of old people, lots of upper middle class retirees.

Ohio is a horrible Romney fit: blue collar workers who may not like Obama but don't trust Romney, not a ton of wealth, etc.

And abortion? Ohio's probably the least pro choice swing state.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.

[ Parent ]
Two for Two
for IMO you have Florida misread as well.  
[ Parent ]
well, why do you believe Romney polls
better in FL than OH?

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.
[ Parent ]
simplest answer is
Florida is for all practical purposes approaching a lean R state. Ohio is not.

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
if that's true, which I don't believe, there must be a reason why
so what's changing? what demographic groups are growing/shifting in FL that aren't in OH?

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.
[ Parent ]
eh it was always a lean R state
2000 colored the picture a bit due to Gore's overperformace, but prior to that and after that Florida has consistently had an R+ PVI.

But I would say, older retirees from Tampa to Naples and Palm Beach/Broward whites. At least since 2000. North Florida dixiecrats are probably approaching capped out status, but perhaps not quite yet. Unlike most other southern whites the GOP has a lot of room to grow among Florida whites.

Plus the Florida Dem party stinks.

Ohio has a lot of fickle minded blue collar union whites, and a large number of fickle minded catholic whites. Florida has no such equivalent.  

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
Enjoying the back and forth
http://www.politico.com/blogs/...
What it definitely did, was seriously knocking Ds off message for a few days already.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

MN-senate
Going through opemsecrets, I found that Klobuchar has over a 150:1 CoH advantage. and based in Bills' total expenditures through Q1 see only 10k, I doubt he has much in terms of an operation at this point.

In other news, I may be taking a full time position with the Klobuhar Campaign in June.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

New GPS ad
http://www.nytimes.com/interac...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Greek update
The minor greek political party Social Agreement, originally formed by a anti-austerity PASOK MP, will be joining SYRIZA. Talks with the Ecological Greens have broken down because the Greens -- like every other Green party in the world, are ran by selfish, small-minded, egomaniacs; the Greens came within a tenth of a percentage point of entering parliament in the May election, getting 2.93% (3% needed to enter parliament)

Meanwhile, negotiations with another minor party, ANTARSYA, are not going well. ANTARSYA achieved slightly over 1% (1.19%)  in the May election.

Social Agreement took approximately 1% (0.96%) of the vote in the May election.

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem

Consolidation
It's happening on both sides. New Democracy and DISY (pro-memorandum liberal party; liberal in the European sense) will be running as allies too. It's smart for those small parties: I suspect they'll be electorally cannibalized as voters consolidate as pro-memorandum (around ND) or anti-memorandum (around Syriza). Greeks, regardless of ideology, seem more aware of what is at stakes here.

I'm becoming increasingly skeptical about Syriza's chances. Tsipras seems more interested in posing for the international press than in campaigning to win the elections and forming a government. Bummer.  

[ Parent ]
SuperPAC pumps $2.3-million into Fla ad attacking Obama
Breakdown of this ad spending by state
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Artur Davis Considering Congressional Bid In Virginia
- As A Republican

"Source close to the former Alabama Congressman says he's weighing a bid for Gerry Connolly's seat in 2014."

http://www.buzzfeed.com/rosieg...

Waste of his time
He should be running for MD-06 against Delaney in 2014 if any seat along the Potomac at all.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
Probably intimidated by the cash there
I'm guessing he thinks that VA-11 is going to be open following a Warner gov win and Connolly Senate appointment. Also, he'd probably have an easier time winning a contested primary there.

Selfishly, I'd really like him to run for MD-Gov. He has the right profile for it (paired with a Andy Harris type as LG) and aside from Kittleman we have nobody else with a decent chance of winning.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

[ Parent ]
MD-Gov
paired with a Andy Harris type as LG

Why a Harris type? Do you mean a strong fiscon from the Baltimore suburbs?

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.

[ Parent ]
Yes
though, of course, preferably not someone as d*y as Harris (which basically narrows it down to anyone else but Harris himself).

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
If he wants to do this
He needs to endorse Romney and work his ass off for him in VA. Despite his moves to the right, he needs to prove his loyalty. Another possibility for Davis, as I think Connolly's seat will be a tough climb: AG. IDK who is running, but, if there is a primary (rather than convention) and several Republicans are running, he could sneak through.  

Male, LA-06/LA-01 (Home is where the heart is)
Cassidy, Tillis, Rounds, Latham for Senate!  
[ Parent ]
He should have just run for his old Alabama seat again as a Republican
He still has a base there and could have pulled some Dem crossovers along with getting the base GOP vote there. I think that would have been his best option of rebuilding his political career. He might have lost but he would have rebuilt his image as a Republican and that could have layed the ground work for his running again for Gov or some other office in Alabama as a Republican in the future.
[ Parent ]
Doesn't work that way
ask Olga Mendez or Matty Martinez. His "base" there is straight-ticket D voters, not Artur Davis voters.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
Olga was low profile
She had a small state senate district in a small part Manhattan not a big congressional district that encompass a huge part of Alabama. So Davis's run would get a lot more attention. But even using Olga as an example she still did way better than any other GOP candidate has ever done in that district. Granted she only got about 20% of the vote but keep in mind most GOP candidates in the district barely get 5% in that district. So she move the vote about 10% in her favor. A generic GOP candidate in Davis's old district can still get about 35% of the vote. So he would only need to move about 15% of the Dem vote to win. But running would be more about re-inventing himself as a Republican than actually trying to win and hence setting himself up for future Alabama runs as a Republican
[ Parent ]
Rendell!!
http://earlyreturns.sites.post...

On Obama's Bain attacks: "I think they're very disappointing"  

Male, LA-06/LA-01 (Home is where the heart is)
Cassidy, Tillis, Rounds, Latham for Senate!  

Like a message imploding
Every day, the media is busy with another D blasting it. They aren't many, but the prominent ones create derailing headlines for a day or 2.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Rendell
He truly is a weathervane.  When he says something about Democrats you really should listen.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
Cicilline fined by FEC
http://blogs.wpri.com/2012/05/...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

SC-7 Ted Vick TV Ad
Justin Amash
Justin Amash is answering questions on Reddit right now. Some people have asked about the MI-03 election. . . It's rather odd to see a Republican Congressman answering questions on Reddit. http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/c...

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
A lot of variability with TX-SEN
The poll ended as Dewhurst started a big wave of attack ads against Cruz. Leppert, who has also been up on the air with positive spots, is looking to repeat Fischer's performance in Nebraska and slide into second with the other two attacking each other. Leppert's numbers were up to 17% before the big wave of attacks on Cruz, so his ability to slide into a runoff has increased. I don't see Dewhurst getting out of a runoff either way, but he would probably want to go up against Leppert (against whom he can cast himself as a conservative) rather than Cruz.

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04
PPP has Obama up 8 in PA
http://www.publicpolicypolling...

I was guessing it was going to be 7. :/  

21, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Rom 8:38-39    

This I don't believe
I bet it's at around O+4.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
Idk,
I mean it's certainly possible, but how do you get Obama up 8 in PA, when their new PPP/DKE poll has him 1 national, and in '08, Obama won by 10 or so in PA, and won nationally by 7?  

21, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Rom 8:38-39    
[ Parent ]
plausible
it'd be D+3 by PVI for the election then.  I'd expect a bit lower, but it's on the high range of plausibility if Obama's up 2 nationally.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.
[ Parent ]
12% Independent
That's very low. Also there is no way Obama is beating Romney by 24% with Indy's.
[ Parent ]
Hmm
Obama getting 13% of McCain voters and Romney getting 10% of Obama voters confirms, in my mind, what I've been saying about the PA Presidential race: Romney will do better than McCain did in 2008 in SEPA and Obama will do better than he did in 2008 in SWPA (outside of the North and South Hills, which I believe will be relatively stable).

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
Crossover
Sounds about right. McCain overperformed in SWPA because of his military service, and Romney is a better fit for SEPA. I'm wondering, though, if Romney can get more of those Obama Republicans in SEPA with a Paul Ryan pick. It's really irritating that they didn't poll that.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17
[ Parent ]
I think Palin helped in SWPA
So a boring corporate WASP VP might not be the ticket

I hear constantly in CT "Palin cost McCain the election" from folks who never set foot in western PA, northern FL, rural MO or southern OH. ...sigh....

[ Parent ]
Not really
What helped McCain in western Pennsylvania was his military record.  I suspect being a veteran is good for 5% above the run of the mill candidate out there.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
Well
I've set foot in western PA, northern FL, rural MO (why do people live in such places?!), and southern OH. In any event, I don't think Palin cost McCain the election, because he was going to lose regardless, but she certainly didn't help any. I'm guessing Palin indirectly cost McCain a couple percentage points, mainly by throwing the campaign off message.

Democrat, NC-11
[ Parent ]
Plausible partisan breakdown


24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Matches registration
That said, when ever has the registration margin been close to the actual margin of voters who show up.  If registration is their metric, it comes with perils in Pennsylvania.  You could easily poll too many or too few conservaDems.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
If anyone buys
+8 Obama in PA while PPP has it +1 nationally I have a bridge in NY to sell you.  I take credit cards as well as cash but no checks.  

Indies are evenly split nationally according to PPP while Gallup has Romney +10 ahead among indies.  In PA they are 2-1 for Obama over Romney.  Nope I do not buy it.  

[ Parent ]
Crazy Jim at it again
There are few congressmen whose character I'll impugn, but crazy Jim Clyburn is one of them. His perception of the world exists only in his head:

Bain Capital was responsible for merging and closing companies in order to "[walk] away with millions of dollars in profits,"

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/s...

I'm sure he actually believes that a smart business strategy is to merge and close companies and that you can walk away with millions in profits as a result. In the real world closing companies usually leads to huge losses and growing companies leads to profits.

I don't know of any situation that Bain bought a company and was able to merge and close it and walk away with millions in profits. If it were that easy, why didn't the previous owners do that? Bain bought a number of distressed companies. Their business model has been to make them profitable.

If Bain did this, why would investors and banks give them money? Strike that. Clyburn probably thinks Bain uses their own money and has no idea the source of funds.

Are there any Democrats who've ever started a business? Clyburn, like Pelosi and Biden, hasn't been in the private sector. So he believes what people tell him.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Obama camp rebukes Clyburn
"We strongly disagree with Congressman Clyburn's choice of words- they have no place in this conversation," Obama spokeswoman Lis Smith said.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

Obviously I'm not a fan of Crazy Jim and I compliment the Obama campaign for avoiding the word rape, but Barack Obama's campaign shouldn't be held accountable for anything Clyburn says. (No one's ever been accountable for anything he's said.) This whole rebuke/apology thing is ridiculous. Jim Clyburn is responsible for what he says, not the campaign. There shouldn't be a reason for this.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Ayotte: Pick me! Pick me!
That's what I get from this and her saying why she is better qualified than Obama to be President
http://www.bostonherald.com/ne...

Between her, Christie, and McDonnell, who do you think wants it more?  

Male, LA-06/LA-01 (Home is where the heart is)
Cassidy, Tillis, Rounds, Latham for Senate!  

Ayotte
What a disaster it would be if she were the successful nominee and then Hassan won and appointed a Democratic Senator. . .

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
Well, that's politics. n/t


21, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Rom 8:38-39    
[ Parent ]
Yep
It would be a complete disaster if we won the Presidency.
[ Parent ]
well, in fairness
that could decide Senate control.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.
[ Parent ]
BP
You know as well as I do how important Senate control is. sigh  

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
I'd rather
A 51-49 Democratic majority with a Republican President than the other way around. This way we can blame our problems on an obstructionist Senate and Romney can just appoint Manchin as Energy Secretary.  

Male, LA-06/LA-01 (Home is where the heart is)
Cassidy, Tillis, Rounds, Latham for Senate!  
[ Parent ]
Of course...
but I'm sure Ayotte isn't the only person who could win Romney the election.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
While that's true,
it's not like she might not be picked for a cabinet position after Romney wins.

Take what Obama did, he picked an AZ D gov, knowing full well that an R would take her place. Sometimes it's worth losing at seat if they're the best person for a certain position in that candidates eyes.

Also, we have enough more chances to take the senate in '14 even if we don't in '12.  

21, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Rom 8:38-39    

[ Parent ]
Bad philosophy
If an appointment costs us control of the Senate, it's absolutely not worth it. I'd rather not let Democrats block everything Romney would want to do in his first two years and point their fingers at him. I'd rather give Romney full control and let him and brilliant members like Paul Ryan (or maybe VP Ryan) work their wonders.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
I'd rather have the presidency than the senate.


21, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Rom 8:38-39    
[ Parent ]
You can have both
Ayotte isn't the type of nominee that is so unique that only she could help Romney win. In fact, as MerrimackMan points out, she gives way too much of a New England flavor to the ticket.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
I'm not really even referring to the pick being her.
I'm just saying in general, I'd rather have the Pres than the senate, if I had to pick.  

21, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Rom 8:38-39    
[ Parent ]
White House control is considerably more important
And you should know that too. You trade the junior seat from New Hampshire for the Oval Office any day of the week. Romney-Reid-Boehner is going to get you a lot further than Obama-McConnell-Boehner.
[ Parent ]
BP
Yes, but as I said, Ayotte isn't likely a magic pick who would be the only person who could win the White House for Romney. If Romney can with with Ayotte, he can win with other VP candidates.  

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
Right
And I agree with Merrimackman below on why Ayotte isn't the right pick. But if you're Mitt, and your team has determined that Ayotte is the best choice, you can't not pick her because of her Senate seat. There are too many moving parts--the gubernatorial race, a half-dozen pure tossups, and Angus King--and all would have to go perfectly wrong for your nightmare scenario to occur.

Also, if Al Gore had won in 2000, Dems would have lost Lieberman's seat to Nancy Johnson, whom Rowland had promised to appoint. That would have flipped the Senate from 50-50 to 51R-49D. But would Lieberman, who boosted Gore considerably in South Florida, have still been worth it? Yep.

[ Parent ]
Don't Pick Ayotte
I'm a huge fan of her's, and she's got real potential. However, Mitt is from MA, and has a home in NH. Too much New England on the ticket. She isn't going to help Mitt much more than he helps himself in New England.

Plus, she's been in the Senate for two years. That's not really enough experience. I'm pretty skeptical of Rubio as a VP as well for the same reasons. He's got major upsides as the VP nominee though (obviously).

McMorris Rodgers would be a terrible pick. It would be Palin without the Palin eccentricities. No one knows who she is, and it would be viewed as a huge gamble.

McDonnell eliminated himself with the ultrasound bill. The last thing Romney would want is the re-start of the War on Women crap. It's really too bad, I probably would have had him as #1 not too long ago.

Pawlenty would be a flat choice. Not going to help you much, but ain't going to hurt either. Portman will help in Ohio, but he hurts with the Bush/Deficit connection. That really makes me nervous.

In my book, the choice is Jindal or Christie.  

R, MA-3

[ Parent ]
Jindal or T-Paw for me
I think T-Paw boosts Romney in Iowa, WI, OH, and MI. He will be able to connect very well with blue-collar, working class voters in those states, and drive evangelical turnout. He has all the upsides of Portman (boring, doesn't offend anyone, unquestionably qualified, competent, etc.) without the negatives (Bush, DC insider). He reinforces the message of a total DC outsider ticket.

Jindal is extremely smart, a minority, and would energize the base. You have seen establishment/moderates (Frum), libertarians (Klein), and movement conservatives (Norquist) come out for Jindal for VP. He thoroughly satisfies every part of the base. He would drive turnout, but not overshadow Romney. To non Republicans, he seems boring, which is what the Romney campaign wants. While he isn't an electrifying speaker, his record excites the base and he is quite possibly the smartest person in elective office today. He is also unquestionably qualified and knows Medicare inside and out. He would eat Biden apart in a debate. And while it is a small factor, he could help Romney with Asians, which could make a difference in a very close election in NV, VA, and even PA.  

Male, LA-06/LA-01 (Home is where the heart is)
Cassidy, Tillis, Rounds, Latham for Senate!  

[ Parent ]
Shumlin uber-safe
http://www.wcax.com/story/1857...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Must be the most popular Legislature in History
When has a legislative body ever had a 57% approval rating?

25 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally

[ Parent ]
4.6% unemployment
Low crime.

Beautiful scenery.

And veto proof Democratic majorities in both chambers and one of the most popular Democratic governors in the country.

Vermont has it good, and when people are doing well they approve if those in charge

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Odd to remember the State House was Republican
Between 2001 and 2005.

25 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally

[ Parent ]
Vermont
4.6% (low) unemployment.
Low crime.
Beautiful scenery.

All three of these things have pretty much been true forever in Vermont.  

R, MA-3

[ Parent ]
Gary Miller embraces outtakes
http://www.garymillerforcongre...

Just go with it.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Congressmen by vocabulary grade level in floor speeches
https://data.sunlightlabs.com/...

Lungren is number 1! I really like him. Click one of the "grade level" tabs to sort them by grade level. The original sorting seems to just be random.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.

New tone
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

That is the outgoing head of the SC ALF-CIO hitting a Nikki Haley pinata. She continues to beat it even after it has fallen.  

Male, LA-06/LA-01 (Home is where the heart is)
Cassidy, Tillis, Rounds, Latham for Senate!  

A quick thought experiment
If it were an Obama pinata at a tea-party rally.

20, Thatcherite,  
[ Parent ]
RNC puts out ad talking about Booker
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

I think it was well put together.  

21, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Rom 8:38-39    

D internal poll
Has Walker at 50% and up 3. Lol. http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

From the same firm
That had Corzine +4 on election day 2009.

If this is the best they can do...

MA-08  

[ Parent ]
They can't
even find a sample to show Barrett in the lead? Walker must actually be up by a huge margin!

NY-3
[ Parent ]
PPP AZ-SEN Flake up 13
Read their write-up and lol away. http://www.publicpolicypolling...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

46-31 R edge in ID
I think that it's the same breakdown as their last poll.
AZ is trending blue!!!111

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Oh come on
We get on PPP and the Washington Post when they include too many Democrats. We need to do the same here. Republicans were only R+8 in 2010 and their high was R+14 in 2004. It's not R+15.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
That's funky
as party registration is 36R-31R-33I. If you use those numbers you get +8 for Flake as opposed to +13. Joke analysis of GOP primary but hey its PPP
[ Parent ]
That kind of write-up
annoys the crap out of me. Just be objective, and not biased.

Seriously.  

21, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Rom 8:38-39    

[ Parent ]
PPP's polling is good and their write ups suck
it's always been that way.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.
[ Parent ]
+1


21, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Rom 8:38-39    
[ Parent ]
NJ-9; Pascrell and Rothman in a dead heat
http://www.politickernj.com/57...

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
Adjusting for being an internal
We get Rothman with a modest lead just as the CW is.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
HI-Sen; Case and Hirono in a dead heat in Case's internal
http://maildogmanager.com/pics...

It would be interesting if Case pulls a Charlie Crist and runs as an independent once he loses to Hirono. Can he do that, or does HI have a sore loser law?

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3

HI-Sen Dem primary
Polls are all over the map.

Case +1
Hirono +20
Case +2
Hirono +5
Case +1

Case seems to have a chance if the turnout is high enough and republicans go vote for him.  

[ Parent ]
The progressive netroots will explode if Case beats Hirono
That said, I'll be stunned if it actually happens. I just can't fathom many liberals not backing Hirono.

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Doubtful
The netroots didn't implode over Lincoln winning, I doubt they will over Case winning.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
There is a difference expectation wise
When comparing Hawaii and Arkansas, especially when AR looked like a general election loser, while the Democrats are favored in HI.  

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
[ Parent ]
Huge difference
Sitting Senator in a state the netroots know is tough for them vs. ex-Congressman and two-time loser in a liberal state known for electing liberal Senators. It won't be a full-scale meltdown, but "in the know" liberals (DKE-types) will be very upset if Case wins, and for good reason.
[ Parent ]
yeah
Case is a perfect candidate for...Arizona, maybe even Colorado or New Hampshire.  That's where his Rockefeller Republicanism might play well; I'd support him there as long as he ran as a Democrat.

But no liberal is going to support a Blue Dog in Hawaii, of all places.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.

[ Parent ]
We know Scott Brown will be ahead in tomorrow's Suffolk poll
How? DSCC preempting with a poll showing the race tied at 46%.
You agree with me?

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

I do
Especially considering the DSCC poll is from May 11.  
[ Parent ]
From DKE
The DSCC is out with a new-ish poll, conducted by Harstad Research a couple of weeks ago, showing the Massachusetts Senate race tied at 46 apiece for Republican Scott Brown and Democrat Elizabeth Warren. Note, though, that the poll purports to survey likely voters, even though the election is still five months off. And if you click through, you'll see that it starts with an unusual screening question: "Do you or does anyone in your household happen to work for a radio station, a newspaper, or aTV station?" If a respondent answered "yes," their interview was terminated. I've gotta believe that that sort of screen yields a less news-aware sample and therefore benefits any candidate who's been on the receiving end of negative headlines-in this case, Warren. I also wonder why the DSCC is releasing a two-week old poll now. Are they concerned about the Suffolk numbers due out on Wednesday?


24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Weird
I am guessing Warren is going to be down pretty badly by Massachusetts Democratic standards.

At what point do local Democrats try to replace her?  I know the netroots will gone insane and start a holy war against the Massachusetts Democratic Party, but you have to wonder if its inevitable.

27, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
We are still on this?
Why do you think it's going to happen? Nobody will be able to excite this much enthusiasm among Democrats and be able to fundraise so well. From reading this blog, it appears many think that after Indiangate, Brown should be up at least 5 against Warren.  
[ Parent ]
You're right
If there were a good candidate he or she would've gotten in before Warren. Indiangate will go away once Warren admits that it was a mistake to claim she was an Indian, that she should've investigate her parents' claims, and apologizes if anyone is offended. If she doesn't bury this, then it could sink her.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
Which is likely true
Otherwise, why would the DSCC release an old poll from before the scandal that had them tied which means that with the standard adjustment for internals means that Brown was leading even before the scandal.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Agree
So is Brown going to be up 10?

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
Not 10
That would shock me. 48-43 would make sense.
[ Parent ]
CBO joke of the day
as they predict disaster if tax cuts are not restored and budget cuts are not undone:

http://online.wsj.com/article/...

I can almost buy the tax cut idea.  I have little doubt that the undoing of the tax cuts would hurt the economy but I also know that deficits are bad.  The spending part is a joke as Stimulus I, II and III did not boost the economy as expected.  So the CBO projecting 4.4% GDP growth in 2013 is way off.  

Obama layoffs-Romney is a Piker
compared to our President. 138K layoffs in April

http://www.lanereport.com/6181...

[ Parent ]
New WRAL/SurveyUSA NC poll has Romney up 1
http://www.wral.com/asset/news...

Obama was up 4 in their last poll.  

21, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Rom 8:38-39    

First time polling likely voters
Surprise! Romney fares better.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Party Split
Is still way too D.  44D 29R 24I



34, Republican, TN-8



[ Parent ]
eh it matches registration
NT.

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
Not Exactly
NC is 44D-31R. So their D number is right, but they're R-2 on the R number.  
[ Parent ]
Plus
Registration doesn't equal the actual electorate. 2008 was the high water mark for dems and it was 42D 31R 27I. 2004 was 40R 39D 21I.

I think it's clear the electorate will be much more R than 2008.  

34, Republican, TN-8



[ Parent ]
splitting hairs at that point
NC independents inherently lean R. So -2 I and +2 R changes the results only slightly.

I personally think Romney will get 52% in NC as a guess. I don't know if any candidate will ever get George W.'s 73% of NC whites again.

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
A little unusual Cross-tabs
I don't think Blacks will comprise 20% of Likely Voters, even if Obama is on the ticket.

22, Libertarian Republican CA-14
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"
[ Parent ]
They were higher in 2008
23% according to exit polls.

Black Registration is up in North Carolina as a % of the whole since 2008.

White Registration is down.


25 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally

[ Parent ]
Didn't see that it was a NC poll
Don't know why I thought this was a national poll instead of a NC one.

22, Libertarian Republican CA-14
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"
[ Parent ]
Yep
The more suspect number is the 7% for Latinos. It'll be half that. Even more suspect is the idea that Romney is winning the NC Latino vote 52%-27%.

Democrat, NC-11
[ Parent ]
Romney Rakes in $3 Million at Connecticut Fundraiser
That's a good amount from CT.
I'm interested to see what he can get from Cheney in July.  

21, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Rom 8:38-39    
[ Parent ]
Mitt might actually outraise Obama this month
Even with being the first gay prez.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
I thought that was James Buchanan
Although I wouldn't want to claim him either.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  
[ Parent ]
Unlikely
There is a reason they are tweeting fundraiser estimates of pledged donations where they have never done this before. And its not a sign of confidence. Its an effort to counter a media narrative, especially after a set of bad stories last week about their fundraising. Its also to cause this speculation.



25 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally

[ Parent ]
That narrative has disappeared from the media


24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Exactly
A negative narrative effects fundraising negatively. A positive one affects it positively.

What I was suggesting however is that the very loudness of the current two fundraising swings, and the fact that these leaks have come from Tom Foley, and anonymous donors, none of whom are in a position to have any idea how much was actually raised, or how much was pledged versus in fact donated, is a reason for caution.

Until and unless the campaign actually makes claims about numbers, and I don't mean "We may raise as much as X at a future event" but "we raised more than X" they should be taken with a grain of salt.

What we do know is:

1. The Romney campaign, outside of its foreign policy staff, runs a tight ship

2. The campaign has been very careful about its wording about its last two swings

3. A large number of associated figures in the fundraising community who are not involved in the actual running of either the campaign or ROF, are being encouraged to speculate publicly about large sums of money being raised.

4. It can supposed that #3 is almost certainly the result of encouragement from the campaign to these people to talk to the press if not actual instructions.

Basically, I suspect it would be futile to try and add up these supposed events. All of the numbers are speculative, approximate, and its hard to tell where the overlap is, and whether the totals include ROF, the Campaign, the RNC, the Victory Fund, or what.

25 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally

[ Parent ]
Tom Foley
Is a big time Republican fundraiser, and he has been heavily involved in all of Romney's CT events. He would definitely know how much Romney raised.  

Male, LA-06/LA-01 (Home is where the heart is)
Cassidy, Tillis, Rounds, Latham for Senate!  
[ Parent ]
Exact Quote

Tom Foley, a former ambassador to Ireland and a Romney fundraiser. said the event at Frantz's home was "very well attended" and the candidate got a "very enthusiastic reception."

Foley said "more than $1 million" were raised at Frantz's house and "maybe as much as $2 million" at the second Greenwich dinner event.

Foley said at Frantz's event there were "a lot of people there I had not seen at other fundraisers for Gov. Romney," and he "presumes they recently came on board to support" the candidate.

"I've been in Republican fundraising for a long time now," Foley, who also ran unsuccessfully for governor of Connecticut in 2010, said. "I noticed [people who have] contributed to campaigns in the past, but they haven't been at a Romney fundraiser until then. There were some new faces I had not seen at other Republican events before."

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/po...

As for the ten million figure, it was said to a group of 250 donors at an event.

I am not contesting that these were successful fundraisers. Its just that having done some political fundraising and followed it, you want to be careful about adding figures together. The only solid number we have from anyone in the campaign is "about 10 million" for Florida, but again, that has not been released from the campaign, and is based on talking with donors themselves.

I would do the same thing with the Obama Clooney fundraiser, for which the 15 million number was bandied around for.

Romney's fundraising is up definitely, but they are mostly raising through the Victory Fund/RNC which goes with the major donor outreach approach they have been running on.

25 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally

[ Parent ]
Deval Patrick
Josh Kraushaar ‏@HotlineJosh
Add Deval Patrick, on CNN just now, defending Bain

I don't know what he's saying, but Patrick may have Massachusetts public employee pension funds invested with Bain. If not them, then certainly other private equity companies. Patrick would have a tough time defending this decision if the private equity companies are out to destroy the middle class.

I have a feeling that Obama's message is going to change to "Private Equity is good. Bain is good now. Bain was evil until Romney left in 1999 and then all the failures of any Bain company after that can be blamed on Romney."

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Swing voters
http://nationaljournal.com/col...

White working class and upper income suburban whites are thought to be the swing voters in 2012. Obama has always struggled with the former, but done better with the latter. His "99%" language may be designed to appeal to working class voters, but it's falling flat.

The problem is that the "99%" language is alienating successful suburban and urban whites, including those that don't make $250k+ per year.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Colorado rich whites
Meanwhile in Colorado, the $200,000-and-over demographic made up 8 percent of the electorate in 2008, and Obama comfortably carried this group by a double-digit margin. That was a huge swing from 2004, when George W. Bush carried that same demographic, getting a whopping 66 percent of the vote.

Wtf.....

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
Ski area trust fund babies?
I notice a major Calfornication swing there in the election results.

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  
[ Parent ]
ND-Gov: first Taylor ad
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem
Obama +4 in WSJ/NBC
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Wolfe takes the lead
Wolfe 59%
Obama 41%
PPP's reasoning as to why Obama is doing worse
in their national polling, than in individual states

Ppl ask why Obama does better in our swing state than national polling- partly bc he'll lose KY's and AR's of the world worse than 08


21, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Rom 8:38-39    
That Doesn't Come Close To Explaining It...
...unless Tom's also going to argue that Obama is going to win "Blue" States by a much smaller margin than 2008 as well.

Because the only way you get increased Obama margins in "swing states" with "tied" national polling is if Romney's doing better in both the 'hard' Red and 'hard' Blue States.

IOW, his explanation doesn't make any sense, or is at least without historical precedent...  

[ Parent ]
Someone needs to call them on it
In '08 McCain won Arkansas by 20. Romney polled +24. McCain won Kentucky by 16. Romney actually polled worse in the one poll. He was up 8. The poll was by... PPP.

Let's say he wins Kentucky by 21 and Arkansas by 28. That'd add roughly 0.1% nationally. That's because combined the two states account for 2% of the votes nationally. Obama tanking in small states is inconsequential.

If we add the total votes in Arkansas, Idaho, Kentucky, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming, Alaska, Kansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi we get roughly the same number of votes that you get in California. These 12 states where Obama may do worse add up to one blue state.

They have Obama doing better than 2008 in Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, and North Carolina. Those states will produce 133% of the 12 states above.

Based on their state polling their national polling should be around Obama +9-10.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Q FL: Mitt up 6, 8 with Rubio
Mitt and Rubio popular, Obama unpopular.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/inst...
Key takeaways http://saintpetersblog.com/201...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Mitt up 23 among whites!


24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Favorables: Romney - 44/35, Obama - 45/50
If Obama can't win on personal favorability, he ain't winning the election.  

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Obama's negative campaigning from the left
dragging his favorability down while Romney's rises.

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!
[ Parent ]
Yup
He's trying to campaign as a socialist-sympathizer and it ain't working.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
UT-Sen: Palin for Hatch
http://www.politico.com/news/s...

Between this and Ted Cruz, I'm beginning not to hate her. Sorta.

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

Unexpected
Is Hatch more conservative than Liljenquist?
[ Parent ]
more like
Hatch is sufficiently conservative to not want to rock the boat.

Especially if Palin ever wants to runs for President in 8 or 12 years.


41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
quote
"because of his commitment to see a balanced budget"

Yup; I do remember Hatch involved in the fights for a balanced budget amendment. He was one of the most vocal supporters.


41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Morning Political Roundup for May 22, 2012 | 201 comments
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Elections have consequences -- from the race for President to the race for one seat on a city council. The political economist Max Weber wrote that the state possesses a monopoly on the legitimate use of force. But in the United States, the state is divided into myriad federal, state, and local entities. And the elections to fill those entities are the products of the fascinating interactions between campaigns, party affiliations, voter turnout, and the media spotlight. Red Racing Horses analyzes those elections -- from a Republican-leaning perspective -- to keep a close eye on the process of electing officials, and to offer our perspective on the election-related issues of the day. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog.

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