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Michigan State House - all districts

by: Republican Michigander

Mon May 28, 2012 at 21:13:00 PM EDT


Here's a State House Map

statehouse1 001

A better map is found Here in PDF format

This one is West Michigan.

statehouse2 001

This is Metro Detroit and Flint
statehouse3 001

In my descriptions below, I don't use "likely" as a rating for the districts. It's either safe, tossup, or lean.  

Republican Michigander :: Michigan State House - all districts
Michigan State House Races:

Note - I refuse to use the term "Likely" to describe a race. I use safe, lean, or tossup, sometimes "safe" for an individual more than a party.

HD-01 (Open)  Wayne County  65% Black, 30.8% White. 75% Obama - Covers  Part of NE Detroit (East of Gratiot), Harper Woods, Grosse Pointe Shores, Grosse Pointe Woods. Safe Democrat. Open seat. 5 Way Primary on D Side.

HD-02 (Tim Bledsoe and Alberta Tinsley Talabi) - Wayne County - 65.3% Black, 30.9% White. 76.4% Obama - Covers part of Detroit's East Side, Grosse Point Shore, GP, GP Park. Safe Democrat.  Five way primary including three current or former reps Tim Bledsoe, Alberta Tinsley Talabi, and Bettie Cook Scott.

HD-03 (John Olumba and Jimmy Womack) - Wayne County - 91% Black, 98.2% Obama. Covers Detroit North of McNicholls, East of Livernois, and West of Gratiot.  Safe Democrat.  Four way primary including incumbents  John Olumba and Jimmy Womack.

HD-04 (Open) - Wayne County - 61.1% Black, 23.0% White, 11% Asian, 95.2% Obama. Covers  Hamtramck and part of Detroit including parts of the East Side, Wayne State,  and Midtown. Safe Democrat.  11 way primary of the dems in this open seat. A lot of the whites in the district (Hamtramck) are Albanian, and the Asians are largely Bangledeshi.  The Detroit whites here are in Wayne State.

HD-05 - (Fred Durhal Jr) - Wayne County -  57.2% Black, 29% Mexican, 11.4% White, 96% Obama. Covers Part of Mexicantown, Central, and SW Detroit.  Safe Democrat. There's a  four way primary including the incumbent Durhal.

HD-06 (Rashida Talib and Maureen Stapleton) - Wayne County -  57.7% Black, 21.2% Mexican, 17.8% White, 92.7% Obama. Covers Ecorse, River Rouge, Detroit's Riverfront, part of SW Detroit, and Downtown.  Safe Democrat. This district gives both Talib and Stapleton a lot of new territory. There's a three way primary here.

HD-07 (Thomas Stallworth) - Wayne County - 95.3% Black, 98.8% Obama. Covers Highland Park and part of Northwest/central Detroit.  Safe Democrat.  This may be the most democrat district in the country.

HD-08 (David Nathan) -  - Wayne County - 91.4% Black, 97.4% Obama. Covers part of NW Detroit. Safe Democrat. Nathan has a four way primary.  

HD-09 (Harvey Santana) - Wayne County - 75.5% Black, 18.8% White (including Middle Easterners), 95.8% Obama. Safe Democrat. This district covers most of the Warrendale and Parkland sections of Detroit, along with a couple of Dearborn precincts that are heavily Muslim. There's a three way primary for this seat.

HD-10 (Phil Cavanagh) - Wayne County - 58.2% Black, 36.9% White, 78.8% Obama. This district covers Redford and Detroit north of 7 Mile and West of Meyers. Safe Democrat.  About 40% of the District is in Detroit (94% Black/98% Obama) and about 60% is in Redford. (64.7% White/28.7% Black/66.3% Obama)  Cavanagh is from Redford and has a lot of new territory. He's facing three Detroiters in the primary.

HD-11 (Open) - Wayne County - 67.3% White, 25.1% Black, 69.6% Obama. This district covers all of Garden City and Inkster, part of Westland, part of Dearborn Heights, and a small part of Livonia. All of those areas are safe democrat outside of the Livonia portion.  Inkster puts any chance of this district out of reach. It's black majority and 93% Obama.

HD-12 (Douglas Geiss) - Wayne County - 67.2% White, 23.6% Black, 68.4% Obama. This is the Metro Airport district covering Romulus, Taylor, and now part of Van Buren Twp. Romulus is soon to be black majority and already is safe democrat. Taylor is part of Downriver and democrat.  Van Buren Twp is safe democrat and getting bluer due to minorities.

HD-13 (Andrew Kandrevas) - Wayne County - 85.5% White, 58.1% Obama. This district covers part of Dearborn Heights, and all of Allen Park and Southgate.  The GOP came close in a somewhat similar district in 2010, losing by 2200 votes, but I'm still calling this safe democrat. Southgate is a democrat stronghold. Allen Park is competitive. Dearborn Heights has drifted away from competitive to now being almost safe. If this seat flips, it will be because it is a wave year.

HD-14 (Paul Clemente) - Wayne County - 81.4% White, 10.8% Mexican, 63.6% Obama. This district covers Melvindale, Lincoln Park, Wyandotte, and  Riverview. Only Riverview is sometimes competitive. The other three municipalities are labor democrat strongholds. Melvindale and Lincoln Park are almost always 60%+ Dem, and Wyandotte is close behind. Riverview leans democrat, to a lesser margin.

HD-15 (George Darany) - Wayne County - 86.6% White (including Middle Eastern), 63.7% Obama. This district covers most of Dearborn. Dearborn is about 1/3 Middle Eastern, mostly on the East Side of the city. Western Dearborn is more Irish, Italian, and Polish. This district leans democrat, and has for a long time, but republicans have won here in the past. Bush won this in 2000. The Iraq War and neoconservative leanings of republican leadership has hurt us bad in this area, in addition to the normal labor influence. This seat was close in 2010 however, within 2200 votes.  I'll call it safe D until proven otherwise, but if resources are there, it's not a bad idea to target this seat.

HD-16 (Open) - Wayne County - 72.7% White, 17.9% Black, 65.6% Obama. This district covers the democrat strongholds of Wayne, and most of Westland.  This is airport and UAW territory.

HD-17 (Open) - Wayne and Monroe Counties - 89.1% White, 55% Obama. This district leans democrat and is intended to protect Dale Zorn and Pat Sommerville. It covers Flat Rock, Rockwood, and Sumpter Township in Wayne County, and London Twp, Exeter Twp, Frenchtown Twp, Ash Twp, Berlin Twp, and the City of Monroe.  It's a 55% Obama and 53% Kerry (2-party) district. Downriver and Monroe County took a major swing in our direction in 2010, but this district leans democrat, although is winnable in a good year.  The dems have a three way primary, and the GOP is running Anne Rossio.

HD-18 (Open) - Macomb County - 81.9% White, 12.8% Black, 57.5% Obama. This district is safe democrat. It covers competitive St Clair Shores and democrat stronghold Eastpointe which is fast becoming minority-majority.  The only way the GOP takes this is by running up a 7-8K win in St Clair Shores. That won't happen in a 52/48D City.

HD-19 (John Walsh) - Wayne County - 90.2% White, 49.2% McCain (+2 votes). This district is safe for Walsh, and leans R if open. Livonia is not a safe R municipality, but it's one which  has generally been favorable. The state rep seat has been GOP for a long time.

HD-20 (Kurt Heise) - Wayne County - 80.7% White, 50.8% Obama. This is a district I'd call lean R. The dems held a similar district (also with Wayne) for three terms before Heise won. Before that was RINO John Stewart. The dems took it because of infighting within the parties. Northville Twp and Plymouth Twp are strongly Republican. The portion of Canton (not Canton overall) in this district is strongly democrat. The City of Northville can be competitive. The City of Plymouth is always close.

HD-21 (Dian Slavens) - Wayne County - 70.7% White, 13% Black, 10.6% Asian (largely Indian), 57.9% Obama. This is a tough call for me. I'll go with lean dem. It's not a safe since it would have flipped in 2010 under these borders. Lori Levi only lost to Slavens by 881 votes in a tougher district. She won the competitive Canton portion, but lost because of Van Buren County. The new district gives part of Van Buren to the other district, but still keeps IMO too much of it. The old district went GOP from 02-08, but Van Buren's black population skyrocketed in that time.

HD-22 (Harold Haugh) Macomb County 80.4% White, 12.6% Black, 61.2% Obama. This is labor country, covering Roseville and part of Eastern Warren in Macomb County. Safe Dem. South Warren and Roseville have been democrat as long as I remember.

HD-23 (Pat Somerville) - Wayne County - 87.0% White, 53.7% Obama, 50.23% Kerry (2party). This is a tossup district intended to protect Somerville who won a tougher district in 2010. The new district covers Huron Twp, Brownstown Twp, Trenton, Grosse Ile, Woodhaven, and Gibralter. Brownstown Twp is strongly democrat and Grosse Ile is strongly Republican. Huron Twp leans R, while Trenton, Woodhaven, and Gibralter lean D.  Somerville has a tough opponent in Tom Boritzki, former Trenton Mayor.

HD-24 (Anthony Forlini) - Macomb County - 86.1% White, 50.5% Obama. This is a tough one to read. There's a lot of new territory for Forlini. Harrison Twp leans GOP.  Clinton Township leans dem, but its most dem areas are in another district. Macomb Twp leans GOP, but it's strongest areas are in another district. Well known former county commissioner Carey Torrice and another dem are running for the dems. She's controversial, although easy on the eyes. Just another day in Macomb politics. I'll go lean R, but not safe.

HD-25 (Open) - Macomb County - 85.7% White (including Chaldean), 52.8% Obama. This is an open seat that covers Eastern Sterling Heights and a small part of Warren. It's a swing seat that is competitive. The republicans are running Sean Clark, who almost won an upset in the old 25th which is more democrat. He lost to Jon Switalski by 1700. Switalski's a big name in Macomb. Two democrats are running, including frequent candidate against Candice Miller Henry Yanez. Tossup.

HD-26 (Jim Townsend) - Oakland County - 86.8% White, 60.8% Obama. 55.3% Kerry (2-party) Royal Oak and Madison Heights.  Both areas are strongly democrat. There have been competitive races here in the past, but it is safe democrat to me until proven otherwise.

HD-27 (Ellen Cogen Lipton) - Oakland County - 68.3% White, 25.1% Black, 74.3% Obama, 69.14% Kerry (2-party). This is probably the most socially liberal district outside of Ann Arbor. It covers SE Oakland County. Oak Park is mostly black with some Jews still there, including one Orthodox precinct that voted for McCain. Royal Oak Twp is more like Detroit than Royal Oak. Huntington Woods is heavily Jewish and much more liberal than West Bloomfield. Hazel Park is union. Ferndale is the gay capital of Michigan. Yes, this is a safe democrat district.

HD-28 (Jon Switalski and Lesia Liss) - Macomb County - 75.2% White, 14.2% Black, 60.1% Obama. This covers Western and most of central Warren, along with CenterLine. UAW Country, and safe democrat. This is an incumbent vs incumbent primary.

HD-29 (Tim Greimel) - Oakland County - 39.8% White, 39.4% Black, 13.5% Mexican, 76.2% Obama. 69.27% Kerry (2-party) This district now has a white plurality due to expansion, but is still safe democrat. Pontiac dominates the district. Auburn Hills leans dem, as does Keego Harbor. Orchard Lake and Sylvan Lake get screwed.

HD-30 (Jeff Farrington) - Macomb County - 84.1% White (including Chaldean),  50.6% Obama. This district now covers Western Sterling Heights, Utica, and part of Shelby Twp. Shelby Twp is solidly Republican. Utica and Sterling Heights swings. This seat slightly leans GOP.  

HD-31 (Marilyn Lane) - Macomb County - 78.7% White, 14.8% Black, 58.3% Obama. This district covers Fraser, most of Clinton Twp, and Mt Clemens. Mt Clemens is a democrat stronghold. Fraser is competitive, and Clinton Twp leans democrat. This seat has been competitive in the past including 2010 (1900 votes), but usually is what I call good enough to lose. Leans dem.

HD-32 (Andrea LaFontaine) - Macomb and St Clair
County - 92% White, 49.3% Obama. This North Macomb/St Clair County district is a tough call to make. McCain won the old district the same year Jennifer Haase (D) did for the dems. LaFontaine won the seat in a semi-upset in both the primary and general, the latter by 1800 votes. Haase isn't running again, but a rematch of the nasty primary is occurring. On paper this is a lean R district, but my gut tells me tossup.

HD-33 (Ken Goike)- Macomb County - 89.2% White, about 51% McCain. This North Macomb seat leans R. Lenox Twp is tough, but Armada and Ray Twps help offset it, along with Macomb Twp which leans R.

HD-34 (Woodrow Stanley) - Genesee County - 60.4% Black, 31.7% Black, 90.2% Obama. This district covers most of the City of Flint. It's a VRA district and safe democrat.

HD-35 (Rudy Hobbs) - Oakland County - 59.4% Black, 34.9% White, 81.7% Obama. This VRA and safe district covers Southfield, Lathrup Village, and now "Southfield Township" which is an affluent white area. Franklin, Beverly Hills, and Bingham Farms.  It dropped majority black Oak Park and Royal Oak Township.

HD-36 (Pete Lund) - Macomb County - 90.4% White, 55.6% McCain. This is a safe R district in Northwest Macomb. It covers most of Shelby Twp, Washington Twp, and Bruce Twp.

HD-37 (Vicki Barnett) - Oakland County - 68.5% White, 16.6% Black, 10.6% Asian, 59.9% Obama, 52.8% Kerry (2-party). This seat covers Farmington Hills and Farmington. I'm about ready to call this safe democrat. It was ours as recently as 2000, but Southfield migration probably put this out of reach. It was close at the top of the ticket in 2004, but hasn't been close at any level since outside of wave elections at the top of the ticket. Safe D, especially for Barnett (former mayor)

HD-38 (Hugh Crawford) - Oakland County- 79.1% White, 10.3% Asian, 49.4% McCain, 58.44% Bush (2-party). Safe for Crawford. This district covers Novi, Lyon Twp, South Lyon, Oakland part of Northville, and Walled Lake. Walled Lake is usually competitive, but the other areas are only competitive in rare (ie 08) circumstances.

HD-39 (Open) - Oakland County - 83.2 White, 52.7% Obama. Tossup. This district covers strongly GOP Commerce Twp, competitive Wixom and the Western and Northern part of West Bloomfield, a democrat stronghold. The worst part of WB are in the other district however. I still can't call this a lean when there's a six way GOP primary.

HD-40 (open) - Oakland County  - 82.6% White, 52.1% Obama. On paper, I'd say tossup, but based on the GOP candidates, I'll go with lean R for now.  There's some good GOP candidates running here, and I don't see a Lisa Brown level of candidate on the dems. The district has part of West Bloomfield, Birmingham, and Bloomfield Hills and Twp. Bloomfield Hills/Twp are more GOP friendly downticket, as is Birmingham. Lean R for now.

HD-41 (open) - Oakland County 77.5% White, 15.5% Asian (mostly Indian) 50.4% Obama, 56.2% Bush (2party). 08 was a massacre in Clawson/Troy, but the state rep district here hasn't been competitive.  There is competition for the Clawson and Southern Troy commissioner district, but the rest of Troy offsets.  Lean R in an open seat.  I'd call it almost safe unless our candidate is a disaster. This district is treading blue however.

HD-42 (Bill Rogers) - Livingston County - 95.5% White, 54.8% McCain, 62.02% Bush (2-party). This district is tougher with the less Republican Southern tier in Livingston County, but anything with Genoa and Brighton Twp anchoring a district is safe.  

HD-43 (Gail Haines) - Oakland County - 87.2% White, 50.2% McCain. Waterford is usually competitive, but Independence Twp is a Republican Stronghold.  I'm calling it safe for Haines. She's won a tougher district than this in 08.

HD-44 (Eileen Kowall) - Oakland County - 92.7% White, 54.1% McCain, This district is safe in one of the most Republican parts of Oakland County. Milford, Highland, White Lake, and Springfield Townships, along with a small part of Waterford.

HD-45 (Tom McMillin) - Oakland County - 81.4% White, 51.3% McCain, Safe for McMillan, otherwise somewhat similar to the Troy district. Rochester and Rochester Hills aren't as solid as they once were. Oakland Township remains safe, but only a small part is in the district.

HD-46 (Bradford Jacobsen) - Oakland County - 91.2% White, 55.5% McCain. This Lake Orion/Oxford district is the safest district in Oakland County. Safe R

HD-47 (Cindy Denby) - Livingston County - 95.2% White, 56.9% McCain, 65.04% Bush (2-party). This district covers western and northern Livingston County. It was safe before and has since become safer. One of the safest districts in the state.

HD-48 (open) - Genesee County - 90.8% White, 60.3% Obama, 56.62% Kerry (2-party) - This district covers Northern Genesee County, along with Davison. A similar district was actually competitive in 2010, resulting in a 1500 vote loss. The district drops the worst areas (Mt Morris) and picks up a bad area (Genesee Twp). Based on the democrats running (Pam Faris, John Cherry's wife), I'm calling is safe D, but it may move our way - slowly - in the future.

HD-49 (Jim Ananich) - Genesee County - 65.2% White, 27% Black, 70.3% Obama. This district covers part of Flint, Mt Morris, Flushing, Flint Twp, and Swartz Creek.  It's extremely safe for the dems.

HD-50 (Charles Smiley) - Genesee County - 84.0% White, 57.9% Obama, 51.85% Kerry (2-party) - This district covers Burton, Grand Blanc, and Mundy Twp. It leans Dem, although can be competitive in a very good year. A district with these borders would have probably flipped in 2010, despite Burton's strong dem leans.

HD-51 (Joe Graves) - Genesee County and Oakland County - 93.9% White, 49.2% McCain, 56.36% Bush (2 party). This district was changed heavily. It has Holly, Rose Twp, and Groveland Twp in Oakland, along with Fenton, Linden, Argentine, Clayton Twp, Gaines Twp, and Flushing Twp (not City) in Genesee County.  I'd call it lean R, although conservadems are very strong in Flushing.

HD-52 (Mark Ouimet) - Washtenaw County - 90.3% White, 54.6% Obama, 51.63% Bush (2-party). This district got much safer after Mark Ouimet won a much tougher district in a close call in 2010 (which had part of Ann Arbor). He can thank Snyder for the assist. I'll call it a lean for Ouimet because of his strength over the years in Democrat stronghold Scio Twp and his 2010 win, but its barely a lean at best. Outside of Ouimet, I'd call it a tossup.

HD-53 (Jeff Irwin) - Washtenaw County - 73.2% White, 11.4% Asian, About 82.1% Obama. Central and Southern Ann Arbor. That's all that needs to be said. Safe D.

HD-54 (David Rutledge) - Washtenaw County - 57% White, 31.2% Black, 75.6% Obama, 69.17% Kerry (2-party). Ypsilanti and Superior Twp. Safe D.

HD-55 (Open) - Washtenaw County - 67.9% White, 14.1% Asian, 68.9% Obama. This district was conceded with redistricting. Rick Olsen is not running again after the new district dropped the R parts and picked up part of Ann Arbor and Ann Arbor Twp. Safe D.

HD-56 (Dale Zorn) - Monroe County - 94.2% White, 49.7% Obama, 53.14% Bush (2-party). This district covers most of Monroe County outside of the City and Frenchtown Twp area near Downriver.  I'll call it lean R with Zorn, but there's still a bit of conservadem tradition here.

HD-57 (Nancy Jenkins) - Lenawee County - 87.1%
White, 51.9% Obama, 5518% Bush (2-party) - I'll call this lean R for Jenkins. Tim Walberg had this district for 18 years. The Spades had it for 12. Jenkins took the open seat. The dems have two good opponents running (one which Jenkins beat in 2010 by solid margin), but Lenawee County goes R more than D.  It's not a safe seat however.

HD-58 (Ken Kurtz) - Hillsdale and Branch Counties - 93.4% White, 53.6% McCain, 62.54% Bush (2-party) - As you'd guess with a Hillsdale district, it's safe R. Both counties are safe R.

HD-59 (Matt Lori) - St Joe and most of Cass County - 86.8% White, 50.1% Obama, 59.37% Bush (2-party). I'm a little uneasy about this one because of close calls in the neighboring district. The new district picked up Dowagiac, which is democrat. I'll call this almost safe, but I'll keep an eye on it. Lean R.

HD-60 (Sean McCann) - Kalamazoo County - 67.8% White, 20.1% Black, 72.8% Obama. Safe Democrat. This covers the city of Kalamazoo and most of Kalamazoo Township.

HD-61 (Margaret O'Brien) - Kalamazoo County - 85.2% White, 53% Obama. 54.25% Bush (2-party) Lean Republican. O'Brien, Larry DeShazor, and Jack Hoogendyk all have won tougher districts here that also included part of K-zoo Township. It's not a safe district, but should still be ours.

HD-62 (Kate Segal) - Calhoun County - 73.5% White, 15.2 Black, 58.4% Obama, 51.66% Kerry (2-party) - Lean Democrat.  I thought the redistricting committee blundered bad by this district. All of the democrat parts of Calhoun County are here. Albion, Battle Creek, Bedford Twp, and Springfield.  Despite that, we have a very good candidate here, so I'll call it lean D instead of safe D.

HD-63 (Jace Bolger) - Part of Calhoun and Kalamazoo Counties.  91.1% White, 50% McCain, Safe R. The winner of the redistricting map is the speaker, Jace Bolger. I thought he could have taken on Albion and still be fine.

HD-64 (Earl Poleski) - Jackson County. 83% White, 51.7% Obama, 55.73% Bush (2-party). Swing. This is a turnout based district with GOP strongholds Summit Twp and Spring Arbor Twp against democrat stronghold City of Jackson. The district is unchanged and flipped twice the last decade. Control of the house could very well hinge on this district. Bush overperformed in Jackson County in 04.

HD-65 (Mike Shirkey)- Parts of Jackson and Eaton Counties, and Cambridge Twp in Lenawee County. 90.2% White, 49.2% McCain. 57.18% Bush (2-party) Swing District. This is a district that's also flipped twice the last decade. It may be a little more R than D, but there's a large number of union independents here and state workers. Conservadems have sold here in the past. Bush overperformed in Jackson County in 04.

HD-66 (Aric Nesbitt) - Van Buren County, small part of Kalamazoo County. 84.2% White, 52.8% Obama. 52.68% Bush (2-party) Lean R. Obama overperformed here, but Van Buren has been a concern area for awhile. There's no democrat bench here, so that's why I have it as lean R and not swing.

HD-67 (open) - Ingham County. 82.4% White, 56.1% Obama. Swing. This is a tough district that is winnable. Jeff Osterle almost won it in 2010, and more importantly now, nobody named Byrum is running. In a year like 08, it'd be impossible to win, but in other years, it's possible. The big trouble is a small part of Lansing in the district. It did trade for a less democrat part of the city.

HD-68 (open) - Ingham County. 56.6% White, 22.1% Black, 12.7% Mexican, 74.7% Obama. Safe democrat. This covers most of Lansing and Lansing Twp.
HD-69 (open) - Ingham County. 78.4% White, 10% Asian, 67.4% Obama. 60.89% Kerry (2-party). Safe Democrat. This district covers East Lansing, Meridian Twp, and Williamstown Twp. East Lansing is more democrat than Lansing itself, and Meridian Twp is also strongly democrat, to a lesser extent.

HD-70 (Rick Outman) - Montcalm and part of Gratiot County. 89.8% White, 50.1% Obama. 56.26% Bush (2party) Swing. Outman defeated incumbent Mike Huckleberry in 2010, and has a rematch in 2012. Huckleberry's always run strong in Montcalm County, even against Dave Camp.  Lean R without Huckleberry, Swing with him running.

HD-71 (Deb Shaughnessy) - Most of Eaton County. 83.6% White, 53.9% Obama. Lean R. Shaughnessy had no problem with this district, like her predecessors Rick Jones and Sue Tabor. It's a swing district on paper as Eaton County voted for Bush twice, Granholm twice, and Obama, but the state rep district has never been close. A small part of Lansing is in this district, and that's the most dem part of the city. Eaton Twp has been dropped making this harder. I'm keeping an eye on this one.

HD-72 (Ken Yonker) - Kent County, part of Allegan County. 75.3% White, 10.3% Black, 52.7% McCain. 64.52% Bush (2-party) This district is a safe district. Kentwood is competitive, but Gaines, Wayland, Leighton, and Dorr Twps are not.

HD-73 (Peter MacGregor) - Kent County. 93.2% White, 55.5% McCain 64.60% Bush (2party). This is a safe district covering NE Kent County, East Grand Rapids (competitive), Grand Rapids Twp, and Plainfield Twp.

HD-74 (open) - Kent County. 88.9% White, 55.1% McCain, 65.38% Bush (2party). This is a safe district covering Northwestern Kent County, Walker, and Grandville.

HD-75 (Brandon Dillon) - Kent County. 44.7% White, 25.5% Black, 24.9% Mexican. 76.6% Obama. This is a blue sink created in Grand Rapids to give the GOP a shot at the other district. Safe D.

HD-76 (Roy Schmidt) - Kent County 73.2% White, 14.6% Black, 57.2% Obama. This district is tough but winnable downticket. Roy Schmidt is a party switcher who flipped on signing day. It remains to be seen what the dems do here.  I'll call it a swing district.

HD-77 (Thomas Hooker) - Kent County - 73.1% White, 16.1% Mexican. 54.1% McCain. This district is a safe R District as Byron Township is one of the most republican parts of Michigan. Wyoming can be competitive depending on the Mexican turnout.

HD-78 (Open) - Berrien County and part of Cass County. 85% White. 50.0% Obama. 57.53 Bush (2-party). Lean R. This is a district that's had some close calls the last decade. It should stay ours, especially with Dowagiac gone, but it's not completely safe.

HD-79 (Al Pscholka) - Berrien County. 70.4% White, 22.2% Black. 52.9% Obama. 54.68% Bush (2-party). Lean R. This actually is a safer district - downticket - than the 78th, but I can't call any 20%+ black district safe in Michigan. McCain actually won everything except Benton Twp and Benton Harbor (and lost Watervliet by 6 votes).  The two Bentons are black majority and are democrat strongholds. The township is over 70% dem, and the city 95% Dem. Bad turnout can cost us this one.

HD-80 (Bob Genetski) - Allegan County. 88.7% White, 53% McCain, 62.55% Bush (2-party) Safe District. Northern Allegan County (Overisel Twp) is the most republican part of the entire state.  It outvotes Saugatuck, Lee Twp, and competitive Plainwell.

HD-81 (Open) - St Clair County. 94.8% White, 50.3% McCain, 56.23% Bush. Lean R. St Clair County is competitive and some of this area was represented by a dem in the 90's. I'd call this seat almost safe as an open seat.

HD-82 (Kevin Daley) - Lapeer County - 93% White, 50.5% McCain, 58.56% Bush (2-party). Safe R. Lapeer County has been moving in our direction since the 90's outside of the 08 disaster.

HD-83 (Paul Muxlow) - Sanilac County and part of St Clair County. 89.8% White, 51.8% Obama,  54.77% Bush (2-party). Lean R. This district is a tough one to read. Port Huron is Democrat. Fort Gratiot and Burtchville Twp are competitive. Sanilac County is very conservative and populist independent and will sometimes go 60%+ for Republicans. There are a few democrats there that are loved.  Joe Espinoza and Jim Barcia are two of them.  

HD-84 (Kurt Damrow) - Huron and Tuscola Counties - 95% White. 49.4% McCain, 55.30% Bush (2-party). Tossup.  Damrow's been in the news up there and will have a very tough primary. If he gets past that, he may have a rematch with former rep Terry Brown who almost survived the 2010 wave as an incumbent. This is a conservative populist district, but has a history of supporting some conservadems like Brown. Damrow's a weak incumbent too.  

HD-85 (Ben Glardon) - Shiawassee County and part of Saginaw County - 95.1% White, 52.6% Obama, 53.92% Bush (2-party) Swing district. The Republicans have had a similar district since 98 although with some close calls. Before that the dems have held it for over 20 years. Shiawassee County is a swing populist county between Lansing and Flint. The portion of Saginaw County is a mix of union dems in Chesening and Maple Grove, and republican farm areas.

HD-86 (Lisa Posthumus Lyons) - Parts of Kent and Ionia Counties. 89.8% White, 57.8% McCain, 66.69% Bush (2-party). This is a safe district covering the Alto/Caledonia/Lowell area in Eastern Kent County, along with a small part of Ionia County, including the city.

HD-87 (Mike Callton) - Barry and Ionia Counties. 95.2% White, 54.3% McCain, 62.82% Bush.  Safe R. Barry County is a base county for the GOP, and Ionia County leans Republican.

HD-88 (open) - Ottawa County - 92.7% White, 66.8% McCain, 77.01% Bush (2-party). Safe R. Ottawa County and the Northern Part of Allegan County are the most republican areas in Michigan.

HD-89 (Amanda Price) - Ottawa County - 91.7% White, 55.7% McCain, 65.71% Bush. Safe R. This isn't as Republican as other parts of Ottawa County due to sometimes competitive in a bad year Grand Haven, but still a very safe district.

HD-90 (Joseph Haveman) - Ottawa County - 73.5% White, 17.4% Mexican, 61.5% McCain, 74.71% Bush (2-party). Any district with Zeeland and Hudsonville is safe R.

HD-91 (Holly Hughes) - Muskegon County - 91% White, 56.3% Obama, 51.82% Bush (2-party). Tossup. This suburban Muskegon district has flipped twice the last decade, and actually got a little harder with redistricting. Holly Hughes won by 3000 votes in an open seat in 2010. The Muskegon area is heavily union and this district is always a battle.

HD-92 (Marcia Hovey Wright) - Muskegon County - 63.5% White, 26.7% Black, 72.5% Obama, 64.19% Kerry (2-party) - This safe democrat district covers Muskegon and Muskegon Heights. It's been democrat for years and years.

HD-93 (open) - Clinton and part of Gratiot County - 91.2% White, 49.5% Obama, 58.71% Bush (2-party) - This district leans R but is starting to tread blue. The problem is East Lansing moving north. In 2000, Bush won Bath Township. In 2004, he lost it. That goes against 90% of the rest of the municipalities in Michigan. The reason is MSU. East Lansing, most of which is in Ingham County, is pushing student housing north. Part of it is in Bath. East Lansing also annexed part of Bath and DeWitt Twp. The rest of the county either leans or is solid GOP.  

HD-94 (open) - Saginaw County - 86.6% White, 51.7% McCain, 56.81% Bush (2-party) - Lean R. This rural and suburban district is historically democrat or conservadem, but has been moving away from them since the 90's. Frankenmuth and Blumfield Townships are republican strongholds by percentage (70%+). The rest of the area leans R, with Saginaw Township being competitive. Albee Township is the lone democrat stronghold by percentage. I can't  quite call it safe because of some downticket history, but I'll be surprised if it flips.

HD-95 (Stacy Erwin Oakes) - Saginaw County - 47.8% White, 37% Black, 12% Mexican, 74% Obama. Safe Democrat. This district was at one time a VRA district, but due to Saginaw's population drop, had to expand. It's still a democrat stronghold due to Saginaw, Buena Vista, Carrollton, and Bridgeport.

HD-96 (Charles Brunner) - Bay County - 90% White, 58% Obama, 55.90% Kerry (2party) - This Bay City and surrounding area district is a UAW yellow dog stronghold. We're slowly gaining some ground here, and held Brunner to a 1757 vote win in 2010. Tradition is strong here however, especially for conservadems. This is the heart of Jim Barcia country.

HD-97 (Joel Johnson) Clare, Gladwin, Arenac, part of Osceola County. 96.1% White, 50% Obama, 51.93% Bush (2party). This district is historically conservadem with a lot of religious conservatives and corrections workers, although this district has moved a little in our direction. The dems took a similar district it in a supposed upset in 2002 and the GOP took it in 04 after the democrat voted against a gay marriage ban. Like much of North Michigan, they prefer Barcia or Stupak democrats, not Ann Arbor democrats.  I'll call this lean R for Johnson, who won easily in 2010.

HD-98 (Jim Stamas) - Midland, Rural Bay County - 93.2% White, 49.9% McCain, 54.74% Bush (2-party). This district is safe for Stamas who is very strong in Midland.  Rural Bay County however is almost as dem as the city or burbs. That makes this a lean district for an open seat.

HD-99 (Kevin Cotter) - Isabella and part of Midland County - 89.3% White, 56% Obama, 50.45% Bush. This swing district covers Mt Pleasant and surrounding area. Mt Pleasant is the home of Central Michigan University. Cotter is strong here, so I'll call it lean R strictly due to him. Otherwise, it's a tossup. The dems came close to taking this district a few times, but have been unable to do so.

HD-100 (Jon Bumstead) - Lake, Oceana, and Newaygo Counties -  88.1% White, Either 49.2% Obama or 50.10% McCain (2party).  I have conflicting numbers here, but this is a Safe R district that hasn't been contested in a long time. Lake County leans dem but Is small. Oceana is competitive, and Newaygo County dominates and is a base county.

HD-101 (Ray Franz) - Leelanau, Benzie, Manistee, and Mason Counties - 92.2% White, 52.6% Obama, 54.35% Bush (2-party). Tossup.  I'd call this a tossup because there's a big of Chicago influence on the Lake Michigan Coast, and Obama was very strong here in 2008. Franz was crushed in 2008 against Dan Scripps (who nearly won in 06), but Franz beat Scripps in 2010 narrowly. Leelanau's trending Blue with some Chicago and Ann Arbor influence. Benzie's tough to read, but seems to be a bit liberal. Manistee's a union area. All areas are competitive.

HD-102 (Phil Potvin) - Wexford, Mecosta, and part of Osceola Counties. - 94.1% White, 51% McCain, 57.94% Bush (2-party) Safe R. Wexford County is one the base GOP counties up north. Osceola's also solid. Mecosta leans R, despite Ferris State and Big Rapids which isn't as dem as other college towns.

HD-103 (Bruce Rendon) - Kalkaska, Crawford, Missaukee, Roscommon, and Ogemaw Counties  - 96.2% White, 51.3% McCain, 56.63% Bush (2-party). Lean R. This is a conservadem (Sheltrown) haven, and until 2010 elections, the Roscommon-Ogemaw area elected conservadems for at least 18 years if not more. Crawford and Kalkaska are new areas and more Republican. Missaukee's a base county for the GOP when Sheltrown's not running. Roscommon and Ogemaw are swing counties, but will vote heavy for a Sheltrown, Stupak, or Barcia. I have it lean R with the new territory, but keep an eye on this one.

HD-104 (Wayne Schmidt) - Grand Traverse County -  93.3% White, 50.7% McCain 60.05% McCain (2-party) - Safe R. Traverse City's going a bit blue, but not as much as its reputation. The suburbs here are mostly base areas for the GOP.

HD-105 (Greg MacMaster) - Charlevoix, Antrim, Otsego, Montmorency, and Oscoda Counties.  95.7% White, 52.9% McCain, 60.60% Bush (2-party) Safe R. This is the safest seat in North Michigan.

HD-106 (Peter Petallia) - Iosco, Alcona, Alpena, Presque Isle, and part of Cheboygan County. 95.9% White, 49.8% Obama, 53.09% Bush (2-party) Tossup. Redistricting gave Petallia a raw deal. The old district was slightly more R, but the dems have held up from 98-2010. Alpena and Presque Isle Counties long have held conservadem  and labor leanings, and Iosco will also go for dems at times. Tossup with Petallia. Lean dem if open.

HD-107 (Frank Foster) - Chippewa, Mackinac, Emmet, and part of Cheboygan County - 81.8% White, 10% American Indian (Mostly Chippewa). 50.3% McCain, 57.89% Bush. Lean R. This is the most Republican friendly UP district historically, although it's still competitive. Emmet County is a base GOP county.

HD-108 (Ed McBroom) - Menominee, Dickinson, and Delta Counties. 95% White, 50.6% Obama, 53.43% Bush (2-party). Tough to call this district as it's so erratic. Democrat Judy Nerat won big in 08, lost by 20% in 2010, and wants a rematch. This district is heavily Green Bay influenced, so if Obama's doing well there again in 10, then this could flip. I'll call lean R based on what I'm seeing from a distance in Wisconsin right now. Culturally, this district is more Wisconsin than Michigan.

HD-109 (Open) - (most of) Marquette, Alger, Schoolcraft, and Luce Counties. 90.5% White. 56.5 Obama 52.56% Kerry (2-party) Safe Democrat. Marquette County is a democrat stronghold thanks to unions, Northern Michigan University, and the tradition of the 2 legendary kings of pork, Dominic Jacobetti. It still goes dem at the top of the ticket, and is more dem downticket.

HD-110 (Matt Huuki) - Western UP. 92% White, 50.4% Obama, 52.82% Bush (2-party). Tossup. Until 2010, that district has been democrat for probably 50+ years. Nothing with Gogebic County is safe, although there is GOP Strength in Houghton County. The rest of the areas are competitive, including long democrat Iron County which is finally going our way. Gogebic's the last non Marquette or Alger County holdout.

My counts
Safe D - 38

Lean D - 6

Tossup - 15

Lean R - 24

Safe R - 27

56 seats gain a majority.    

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Once I run
out of fingers and toes my counting is very suspect.  Did I count about 40 safe or likely D seats? Is 45 seats a likely D number after 2012?  

Either way it is a great diary.  


My counts
110

Safe D - 38

Lean D - 6

Tossup - 15

Lean R - 24

Safe R - 27

56 seats gain a majority.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


I think that is in line with
some estimates.  Others put tossups into either party's camp but I am comfortable with your approach.  There was some discussion the other day about a CD rated as a tossup.  I think someone suggested that the D would win 52-48. IMO that's a tossup.  

I do want to add that Michigan has 4 terms limit for each house seat.  Or is it three terms?  That plus the way house members often scramble for open state senate seats (limited to two four year terms) means every house seat is open at least twice in a ten year cycle. Well least once depending on the timing but either way open seats make for volatile outcomes.  


[ Parent ]
Three full terms for house (6 years)
There's a three term limit for the state house and a two term limit for a four year positions of state senate, governor, attorney general, or secretary of state. Partial terms count towards the limit only if the partial term is 50% or more of a term. Joe Graves for example still has three terms he can run for because he replaced Paul Scott as of February.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

[ Parent ]
HD-76
How did Bush do in HD-76?

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

I don't know
I think he lost it by 3000 or so, but I won't know for sure until after November and even that is only if GR didn't re-precinct everything.

I'd have to compare state rep precincts to presidential 04 numbers.


MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
This is very helpful, but
I'd like to point out that 'Hispanic' does not automatically mean 'Mexican.'

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

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