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Afternoon Roundup for May 30, 2012

by: BostonPatriot

Wed May 30, 2012 at 17:25:48 PM EDT


MI-Sen: As expected, PPP checked in on the Senate race while they were in Michigan, and have Debbie Stabenow doing slightly better than Obama, leading Pete Hoekstra 53-37. This race has been underpolled; as the last survey before this one was the MRG poll from March that had Hoekstra within 5.  

MO-Sen: Nothing new in Missouri: Claire McCaskill is still stuck in the mid-40's against all three GOP candidates, and has lousy job approvals (40/50). This month, PPP finds statistical ties all around, as McCaskill trails Todd Akin 45-44, ties with Sarah Steelman at 44, and leads John Brunner 46-44. The GOP primary is just as close: Steelman 28, Akin 25, Brunner 23, with plenty of undecideds.  

OH-Sen: Rasmussen has Sherrod Brown up 47-42 on Josh Mandel. The trendlines are positive for Brown, who led by 3 in last month's Rasmussen poll.  

WI-Gov: The latest Marquette poll is more of the same, with Walker leading Barrett 52-45, and LG Rebecca Kleefisch up 46-41 among likely voters. Walker's collective bargaining reforms have majority support among the electorate, and he's also personally popular at 51/46. Perhaps the most interesting finding from this poll is that 34% of respondents claim to have stopped talking to someone due to conflicting views on Walker. Yes sir, they care about their politics in Wisconsin! (FWIW, Democrats claim that the race "is a dead heat" in their internals.)

FL-07: John Mica is up 55-25 on Sandy Adams in an internal poll he released today, quite impressive considering that Adams represents more of the new 7th. The filing deadline in Florida is next Friday, so perhaps Mica is trying to scare Adams into another race, although she seems just as dead-set on the 7th as he does.

IL-12: Democrats are starting the application process here that Republicans recently went through in the 13th, and one big name--St. Rep. Jerry Costello II--says he won't apply. The state party named Madison County Circuit Court Chief Judge Ann Callis, St. Rep. John Bradley, and ex-St. Rep. Jay Hoffman as three potential candidates for the nomination.  

BostonPatriot :: Afternoon Roundup for May 30, 2012
Tags: (All Tags)
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NY-6
Did Meng buy Ackerman's endorsement? http://www.cityandstateny.com/...

R - MD-7

C'mon
This is how politics are run in NYC.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Texas legislative updates
are here:

http://www.texastribune.org/te...

The state senate looks to be more conservative with Jeff Wentworth in trouble as well.  GOP house could be even more conservative.  Stay tuned.

Yes it is a long time til runoff.  I under it has to do with military ballots being sent overseas. In the old days it three weeks or so but not now.  At least if federal elections are involved.  


MO Senate
I have a feeling most of the undecided are Republicans.

Primary poll indicates 24% undecided. So this is still largely a function of name recognition. Brunner appears to have mostly caught up on that front.



42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


MO-Sen
It look lik we just need to pick the candidate who is the least disastrous (none of them are that bad) and run out the clock. You don't win with a majority of voters having an unfavorable opinion of you unless your opponent is disliked to an even greater extent.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

If your party's smart they won't pick Akin
he has Angle potential; the other two seem average other than Steelman's lack of fundraising.

I guess if I were a Republican I'd pick Brunner.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Law and Order Liberal.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
I honestly am not sure who to pick as the best candidate.
Maybe my electability instincts are off, but I always thought that Akin was the strongest candidate. Then again, I haven't payed much attention to his statements. The other two seem fine, and I would favor Brunner, but I thought that he was the one with the issues, so what do I know?

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Steelman is the one with known issues
When she was in the legislature, she left the reservation on certain issues.

She also has the baggage from her last state wide campaign.

Brunner isn't someone I know much about; he really is "Some Guy". Which appears to be enough to win in the general.


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
I'll take Brunner, then.


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
I have a brother who lives in Missouri
and I asked him recently if he was voting for Steelman in the Senate primary-knowing that he voted for her over Hulshof in the 2008 gubernatorial primary. He said that he hasn't been very impressed with her since then and that while he didn't know that much yet about Akin or Brunner, he was leaning towards voting for Brunner.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
Brunner
has been on the air for quite some time now, while I have yet to see an Akin or a Steelman ad yet in the KC market.


19, Republican, KS-03
Standing strong with Senator Roberts and Governor Brownback.


[ Parent ]
Todd Akin
"liberals hate God" (direct quote which he refused to backtrack from)
compared voting from the wrong address (which he did for years) to going to war in Iraq

If your party wants to nominate this guy, by all means, do so.  But he's the worst of your three.


Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Law and Order Liberal.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
*looks like


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
More decent news for Walker
http://m.jsonline.com/15582882...

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


Just... Wow
You'd think that the local Ds would lose votes with gamers or something.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Oops... Mispost


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Illinois State Rep. Mike Bost: Let My People Go!
That guy is angry.
I looked him up, and he's from rural Southern Illinois, so I'm not surprised that he's p*****. He lives in Jackson County, but I doubt that his district includes Carbondale.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Going badly...
WH first denied today that Obama endorsed Barrett.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


WI-SD-13: new Compas radio ads
Radio ads touting the endorsements of Republicans; fmr. Republican St. Sen. Barbara Lorman and Gary Olsen (who?): http://www.loricompas.org/2012...

Transcript, Lorman ad:

Hi, I'm former state senator Barbara Lorman and like many Republicans I'm crossing over to support Lori Compas in the upcoming election on June 5, the time for Scott Fitzgerald's divide and conquer strategy is over. Lori is a common sense, independent, leader who is dedicated to open, honest, government. She will restore civility to the legislature and work with local businesses to create jobs here in this district. Please join me and support Lori Compas on June 5.

Transcript, Olsen ad:

I am Gary Olsen and I am a proud Republican but Scott Fitzgerald has changed over the years and he has became to extreme. I may agree with some of his policies but I will never vote for divisive tactics that divide and conquer. No leader should intentionally turn neighbor against neighbor and distract us from creating jobs and growing the economy. Quite frankly, we deserve better. We need honest answers from honest people, that is why I am proud to support Lori Compas for state senate on June 5.



(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


Some context here
Barbara Lorman left office in 1994. Somebody that's been out of office for 18 years isn't exactly very relevant. Also, it appears that she endorsed Obama in 2008. So she's really hardly even a Republican anymore.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
More context
She was defeated for re-election to the Wisconsin Senate in the Republican Primary in 1994. Guess who was the person that defeated her? I'll let the reader connect the dots.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
Aha...


26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Waste of money
Walker should win the district by 20-25 points. Same goes for downballot Fitzgerald.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Press conference exchange of the day from McCormack
TWS: On collective bargaining, mayor, the governor and his campaign have pointed to a number of... schools across the state that heave benefited from the reforms in Act 10. Which school districts have been hurt in particular, in your view, by Walker's policies and his reforms? Are there any that stand out in your mind?

BARRETT: Well, I support the restoration of collective bargaining rights. And that's what this is all about-whether you support workers' rights. And I support workers rights.

TWS: But are there any school districts in particular, though, that have been hurt by Act 10?

BARRETT: I have talked to prison guards, I can tell you that, who are concerned about their own public safety because of the changes in the law, and I'm very concerned about that as well

TWS: But no school districts-

BARRETT: We can do an analysis and get back to you on that.



26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


Lol
It's called preparation.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
They've had a year and they don't have an answer?
Isn't Wasn't Act 10 the reason for the recall? I'm confused. Seriously. The recall is about striking a blow at Republicans, giving back the unions the collective bargaining rights, and scaring any other state from trying anything. They're doing it because Wisconsin allows them another shot at Walker and they'd do it in other states if they have similar laws.

But obviously the Democrats aren't selling that as the reason. Why should the average Wisconsin voter vote to recall?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Pete Hoekstra Valiantly Trying
to make sure he will never be asked to run for office again. http://www.freep.com/article/2...

R - MD-7

Didn't you say he'd have the potential to surprise us?
Heh, what's Durant like? Could he provide an escape hatch for Republicans here?

[ Parent ]
I was very surprised, to be sure
Hoekstra did such a nice job of raising cash and laying down his campaign infrastructure last year that I was sure he was getting ready to run a first-rate shop. And then he actually started campaigning and more or less totally imploded.

Durant seems to be one notch above Generic Rich Dude, as he's run statewide before and has a decent resume in the education field. At this point he's starting to look like a better bet.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
Key question
Polls show WI will be similar to 2010.
Does that mean Walker wins Kapanke's district again? Would he have survived with the recall now?  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


What did Walker win (% wise) in 2010 in Kapanke's district?


[ Parent ]
Barely won IIRC
I don't remember the exact number.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
My guess is this time he will lose the district by a bit
I think Walker will do better than 2010 in the southeast part of the state.

[ Parent ]
I also think that so
With rural WI.
Prosser only got 42% in the Kapanke district.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
You agree with me, or you think Walker will do well again here?


[ Parent ]
I was pretty clear
I agree.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Can Walker hit
75% in Walkershaw? He got 71% in 2010 IIRC.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
The "W" walked in there...


26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
That's how it's pronounced
Wau-keh-shaw. So Walkershaw actually flows pretty nice.

[ Parent ]
50%
Might be with rounding.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
NY-SD-38
Regular Dem County Councilor may challenge Ind-Dem Carlucci. http://www.cityandstateny.com/...

In semi-related news in the same article, the IDC is apparently friendly with Breslin's primary opponent.

R - MD-7


Doubts on a Carlucci challenge
I have to think that this is smoke and mirrors on the part of Wolfe (who is really a no name county legislator hack).  In NY, the county cannot raise the sales tax without the legislature officially passing it and I believe that the legislative leaders usually defer to the locally elected senators and assembly-person(s) to get their OK.  

Vanderhoef has been raising taxes nearly as frequently and with almost as much severity as a Democrat.  He wants yet another 3/8th increase in the sales tax to avoid layoffs.  Maybe he needs to pull a Christie and start looking a little harder at the underlying costs.  Maybe he should have negotiated with the unions a little harder than he has.  

Carlucci may be posturing but Wolf is posturing too.  At the end of the day I think Carlucci is fine even though I would like to see a Republican in the seat.

36, Republican, NJ-11  


[ Parent ]
MI-11
Rocky R. reconsiders, looking at rival write-in bid. http://www.detroitnews.com/art...

Probably the only secondary write-in campaign that McCotter would have nothing to fear from.

R - MD-7


Impression I get is Oakland County GOP might bail
They seem to be that disgusted they might let Thad twist

[ Parent ]
Obama sticks foot in mouth again
"Obama ... stressed he probably knows about Judaism more than any other president, because he read about it,"...because "all his friends in Chicago were Jewish."  

http://www.weeklystandard.com/...

That's insulting to other Presidents and to Jews. I'm a practicing Jew and I wouldn't make that claim, even in room of Atheists. I'd guess that Obama's friends are secular Jews, people who tend to know little about Judiasm and regard being Jewish as cultural, not religious.

Bill Kristol responds:
http://www.weeklystandard.com/...

Why would John Adams and James Madison speak Hebrew? Who would they speak it with?  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Classical education
Mastery of Latin and Ancient Greek was often a basic requirement for admission to university. Learning Hebrew there was pretty widespread.  

[ Parent ]
Carl Wimmer
Carl Wimmer
about an hour ago ·
Teaser alert: Looks like the next political adventure is about to begin for me. I'll let you know in a couple days.
Unlike ·  · Share
You and 29 others like this.

My favorite comments?

Chris Bojanower Obama/Wimmer 2012
27 minutes ago via mobile · Like ·  3

Carl Wimmer ‎Chris hahahahahaha! uh, no.
26 minutes ago · Unlike ·  4



From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


FL-07
This is the most pointless and stupid game of chicken I've ever heard of. One of them should just run in the 6th, damn it!

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


Supremely Stupid
Do they really have a personal grudge against each other or something?

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Can't imagine they do
Mica's been in Congress forever, and Adams was in local law enforcement before her years in the state House. Unless it's some sort of recent grudge, this is just Mica being unpredictable and running in what any neutral observer would say is Adams' seat. But it's working out pretty well for him.

[ Parent ]
No
I'll say this again: Adams lives in the area, her state house seat was in the area, and she was part of the sheriff's department in the area. She's a first-termer who isn't independently wealthy, so I doubt that she would or maybe even can move. Mica lives there as well. He has the money to move to the 6th, which contains a lot of his old seat, but he doesn't want to move either because he likes where he lives and has enough money that he doesn't have to be in Congress. He has seniority and a committe chairmanship, and while I don't think that he's a bad guy, he refuses to bend to political pressures. He sees himself as wealthy enough to be independent of just about everyone, which is pretty close to true. There you have it.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
*to move because


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Extremely Dumb Websites, Part whatever
Politwoops, a new website caching deleted tweets from politicians, deserves a look in the sense that it's one of the biggest wastes of web server space I've seen. They need a filter to screen for Anthony Weiner Pix. http://politwoops.sunlightfoun...

R - MD-7

99%
Are spelling errors I'm willing to bet?

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
IL-11
I'm going to steal a line out of Obama's playbook and say that my thoughts on the race are starting to "evolve." I'm hearing Bill Foster is having a lot of trouble getting enthusiasm up and that Biggert has been excellent out of the gate... I'm also hearing that this is the district Obama will fare the worst in of 8, 10, and 11... it's pretty freaking stupid to draw an attempt at a Democratic seat that's a quarter made up of DuPage County precincts (actually ~29.64%, I checked after I wrote half and I was damn close). The DuPage portion of the seat went 57% for Obama and I can see Romney winning it in 2012 and losing the seat as a whole like 53-46. At this point, I'm guessing Obama gets to 55-56% in both the 8th and the 11th, too. That 53-46 number would be good news for Judy Biggert. The non-urban parts of the district are going to be good to Romney and Foster just isn't connecting with the urban voters like he should be, or so I hear.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


By how much would Romney win the DuPage part?


[ Parent ]
Jay Hoffman
Yes, Democrats, please run a former-State Rep who was defeated in an Obama seat downstate! Bradley would be their strongest pick, in all likelihood.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


Bradley
Agreed, thats who I'm pulling for.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Should be a good race
How is this district expected to change over the decade?  

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Mia Love Fans
NRCC‏@NRCC
Don't miss NRCC Young Gun @MiaBLove on Greta tonight at 10:00! #UT04 #UTpol #tcot #gop

SC1-Charleston

Michigan write-in
I have been informed by my sources that a write-in might not be possible in the primary.  I have not checked out the rules myself, but as explained, I think its possible McCotter cannot win as a write-in.

28, Republican, PA-6

How has no one else picked up on this?
You'd think with all that's happened here someone would have bothered to look up the relevant law.

[ Parent ]
Seemsto be a legit write-in option
He just has to formally announce his candidacy and get 5% of the total vote for Senator in addition to beating Bentivolio. http://www.michigan.gov/docume...

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
This is going to be probably in excess of 7,000
Presumably turnout for the Senate primary draws folks to the polls, if not, this could be a challenge  

[ Parent ]
It'll take 25,000 to play ball
A quitter in my district got 23,000 as a write-in candidate, unopposed, to be the nominee. The actual candidate as a write-in got 1700. This was in MI-8 back in 2010.

I think Bentivolio will get at least 25,000, and more likely 30-50K.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
I Suspect Bentivolio Will Get More Than That
I suspect he'll pull up to 70% of the vote in the primary. McCotter's needing to run as a write-in, combined with his utter incompetence over the past year, almost certainly dooms him.

If there's an "establishment" guy that everyone's going to take their hammer to, McCotter's the guy.

I think he has almost no chance of pulling this out. I'm pretty certain Bentivolio will end up being the nominee.

Sometimes, Providence smiles upon the little guy with good fortune...  


[ Parent ]
Given these odds
I'd rather the NRCC just start helping Bentivilio find cash and organize a strong campaign. I don't want this seat to be at risk in the general, and there's no sense letting McCotter wound our eventual nominee with a sad but draining write-in campaign.

If Bentivilio is passable as a representative I suggest he become the default choice of good Republicans.

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)


[ Parent ]
Interview
On the one hand he's real and refreshing and on the other a bit raw.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
I'm starting to favor Bentivolio
He doesn't sound bad. He's a veteran and a teacher, he seems non-crazy, and I'd rather have him as a Rep for 2 years and then Kowall primary him in 2014 and whoever wins that deserves it. McCotter does not deserve to be in Congress after this. It is fraud and pure incompetence.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
How?
Ryan, I'd question those sources. A candidate who lost the primary election in 08 for an office ran as a write-in (township). That goes far beyond not having the signatures.


I'm 99% sure it's possible, but I think the chances are slim in the primary to beat someone as a write-in.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
Well
It depends on the party rules from what I have been told.  As you know, both parties have a lot of say over how primaries are conducted in Michigan.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Presidential vs State primaries
I have to go back and do more research, but August primary rules are considered state elections are generally set by statute.

Presidential primaries are more set by party rules.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
Communist republic of NYC
Ds latest:
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2012...

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


Bloomberg
I just skimmed the article but from what I've read this is a Bloomberg thing.

btw I agree its stupid and should not happen, things like this anger me.  I personally only drink diet soda when I drink soda, but its still stupid.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
You'd think that local Ds would lose some votes over things like this.


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
It's Actually Closer To Fascism
But it's completely totalitarian at its core.

It's why I really hate Bloomberg, and am glad he's not an 'R' anymore...  


[ Parent ]
Fed Gov
gives a gloomy outlook for the rest of 2012 and next year.

http://www.marketwatch.com/sto...

Not enough economic growth to reduce unemployment rate, stagnant wages and things could get worse if Europe's woes continue.  Has he been reading my posts here?  The jobs being added and the phony unemployment rate reporting hides major economic woes.  


Anyone for a pots-and-pans protest here
Montreal-style?
These guys are nuts. I just spoke to my parents. Totally out of hand.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


McConnell On The Senate
He makes a good point
Patty Murray after some initial trouble (Kohl retiring, Webb etc.) has done an excellent job fielding a full slate of good candidates.  The only real glaring fail is the open seat in Texas where Democrats don't have much of a shot anyways, but it would have been good to still be competitive, we need to start to build a bench at some point.

Steve Isreal on the other hand...

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
Signs in OC (CA-47)
Today my high school had a graduation rehearsal in the Crystal Cathedral for the actual ceremony this saturday (if anyone would like to come for some strange reason, email me for tickets).

Anyway, on the way back I drove past multiple signs in the Cypress-Stanton Area of CA-47. On the street corners I saw a few Kuykendall signs, but a bunch of Usha/Jay Shah signs (a couple BOTH running as Democrats..on the SAME SIGN). No DeLong signs, no Lowenthal signs.

Also in CA-46, I didn't see any Loretta Sanchez signs hanging, but I did see a few of her conservative R challenger (John Cullum).

Also I phonebanked for Noel Jaimes for AD-57. I've learned from all my phonebanking experience that there are 3 types of Responses: (1) OK (2) Is (insert candidate) Party X? (3) The Answering Machine....with #3 being most common.

21-Cubano, R, CA-38
Community College Trustee, City Commission Vice-Chair, College Republican Club President


There are a few others,
but those are the standard ones.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
MI-Sen; I'm starting to favor Durant more than Hoekstra
http://hotlineoncall.nationalj...

Hoekstra seems to make national news for the wrong reasons, which might be just enough negative press to make it too difficult to beat Stabenow. Perhaps Durant could be the fresh face that could pull it off. If Durant can prove he is viable in the primary (and subsequently in the general), I think I may donate to his campaign.  

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


Yep

Durant would be a better nominee (and a better Senator).

[ Parent ]
VP: Kyl Being Vetted?
http://race42012.com/2012/05/3...

Race 4 2012's source says the Romney campaign's list of 7 from a few weeks who had been asked for info is likely the final list, but that they are also partially vetting Kyl, as a back up in case foreign policy suddenly takes center stage and as a courtesy to Kyl, who expressed interest in being VP when he announced his retirement.

Again, here is the list of 7:

Rubio
Portman
Ayotte
Christie
Pawlenty
McMorris Rodgers
Jindal

They also say the second stage of vetting, interviews, is beginning.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


I generally like Kyl,
and he has foreign policy credentials, but I will reiterate my oft-stated opinion that the Veepstakes are Jindal or bust.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
An environment where foreign policy trumps the economy
It's an improbable scenario in which Romney could struggle and need a hail mary veep pick. I'm probably a tad biased on this one, but Rice and Giuliani sound more attractive than Kyl. Again, though, I wouldn't go near either unless absolutely necessary.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
NBC/Marist registered voters poll
Tie in IA, O +1 in CO, +2 in NV. Heller +2.
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com...
Why aren't they going with PPP's narrative on IA?  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


Party ID
IA: 35 R, 34 D, 31 I
CO: 35 R, 31 D, 34 I
NV: 40 D, 38 R, 22 I

Probably fine in IA and NV, but CO is likely too GOP. If obama wins Democrats 88-6 and Independents by 10+ he should be up more.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Rs have a registration code edge in CO
The problem is the liberal Is.
NV has less Ds in this poll.

Can anyone make sense of their this week's poll vs. last week's? I can't.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Hmm . . .

It is difficult to believe that their prior round of swing state polls and this round of swing state polls could both be accurate.

Are the cross-tabs for these polls available?


[ Parent ]
Available
I don't have a link now.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Found Them

I found them on Marist's website.  The one number that jumped out at me is Obama leading among NV Hispanics by 61-33%.  If Romney is able to get one-third of Nevada Hispanics, then the state will be very competitive.  I am skeptical, however, that he is there right now.

The IA/CO crosstabs seemed quite plausible.


[ Parent ]
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