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Political Roundup For June 12, 2012

by: SCRep

Tue Jun 12, 2012 at 09:00:00 AM EDT


President

Ad Spending: The Obama campaign and its allies will hold a nearly 2 to 1 ad spending advantage this week over the Romney campaign and its supporters, $8.8 million to $4.7 million according to ad spending data from NBC/SMG Delta. For the campaign so far, the Romney side has outspent the Obama side. The two sides are focusing their resources on the same eleven battleground states this week.

National Polls: A new Investor's Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor /TIPP Poll has President Obama leading Mitt Romney by 4 points, 46 to 42 percent with 7 percent undecided. Obama leads among independent voters by 7 points.

North Dakota: In addition to the U.S. House and U.S. Senate, Mason Dixon polled the presidential race in North Dakota. Mitt Romney has a 52 to 39 percent lead over President Obama. Romney leads overwhelmingly in Bismarck and the western half of the state, while the two are about even in Fargo and the eastern part of the state.

Romney: Mitt Romney will begin a five day bus tour through six battleground states. Romney announced plans Monday to visit with families and business owners during his "Every Town Counts" bus tour, which begins Friday morning on the same New Hampshire farm where he formally launched his campaign just over a year ago.

Senate

Hawaii: Former Gov. Linda Lingle has launched her own cable television channel, which will provide information about her Senate campaign and the issues facing Hawaii. It is believed to be the first time a U.S. political candidate has employed their own cable station.

Maine: A preview of tonight's Democratic and Republican primaries for the Senate race in Maine. Six Republican and four Democratic candidates are running for a chance to take on Independent former Gov. Angus King in November, who most observers see as the clear frontrunner in the race to succeed Sen. Olympia Snowe.

New York: Rep. Bob Turner leads named candidates in the race for the Republican nomination against Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand according to a Siena College poll. Turner has the support of 16 percent, followed by Wendy Long at 11 percent and Nassau County Comptroller George Maragos at 3 percent, with 70 percent of Republicans undecided. Gillibrand is the heavy favorite in November, leading Turner by 38 points, Maragos by 42 points and Long by 43 points.

House

AZ-8: According to a new PPP poll, Democrat Ron Barber looks headed to a comfortable victory in Tuesday's special election. Barber leads with 53% to 41% for Republican Jesse Kelly, with Green Party candidate Charlie Manolakis polling at 4%. Barber is well liked by voters in the district, with a 54/38 favorability rating. Kelly, meanwhile, has very high negatives with only 37% of voters rating him positively while 59% have a negative opinion.

FL-18: Rep. Allen West is out with his first television ad of the campaign, a soft, feel good, biographical spot in which he says, "I'm just getting started. That's the American way." West has raised $7.6 million through the first quarter and is sitting on $3.3 million in cash on hand.

NV-4: Three Republicans are facing off for the nomination in this new seat that leans Democratic. Republicans Barbara Cegavske, Dan Schwartz and Danny Tarkanian all argue they can emerge victorious against Nevada Senate Majority Leader Steven Horsford in November. Tarkanian has the most name recognition in the 4th District race. Cegavske won endorsements from the state's GOP establishment, including Rep. Joe Heck and Rep. Mark Amodei. Schwartz, an affluent businessman, has run attacks ads that portray Tarkanian as an unscrupulous career candidate.

NY-18: Former President Bill Clinton has endorsed Sean Maloney in the June 26 primary to face Rep. Nan Hayworth. Maloney was an advisor in the Clinton White House from 1997 through 2000. At the time, Maloney was the highest ranking openly gay official to work in a presidential administration.

SC-7: Former Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer is expected to claim one of the runoff spots in tonight's primary. The biggest unknown is who will take the second spot. Horry County Council Chair Tom Rice was thought to have the edge, but former state Parks and Tourism Director Chad Prosser and Florence attorney Jay Jordan are also in the running. For the Democrats, Myrtle Beach attorney Preston Brittain and former Georgia state Rep. Gloria Bromell Tinubu could face off in a June 26 runoff.

TX-23: Former Rep. Ciro Rodriquez received the endorsement of former rival John Bustamante for the Democratic runoff for the 23rd Congressional District. Rodriguez will face state Rep. Pete Gallego in the July 31 runoff to determine who will be the Democratic nominee against Rep. Francisco "Quico" Canseco in November.

SCRep :: Political Roundup For June 12, 2012
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Bustamante
is the son of the former congressman from TX23. I think he clearly is looking at 2014 as Ciro is a very unlikely GE winner. This primary looks like it will come down to rural versus urban on the D side. The big winner is already Canseco.  

PPP has Obama +8, 50-42
PPP
Seems to have become the Rasmussen of 2010.
We want to believe them because they have a good track record, their polls are outliers and we still want to believe them. Then comes election day and the outliers are very bad.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Outlier
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

The RCP polling aggregator really highlights the outlier status of this poll.  

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
They are going to have egg on their faces tonight
Barber will probably win and it definitely won't be by 12 points.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
What if he loses?
That would be awesome. PPP deserves that, given how terrible they have been this cycle.  

[ Parent ]
Terrible?
They shorted the Ammendment in NC, and shorted Walker, what else have they missed?

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
You Just Listed Pretty Much Everything There Was This Year... (nt)


[ Parent ]
I'd still put NV-02 in there
4 weeks out: Amodei +1
2 days out: Amodei +13
Actual: Amodei +22
(I just don't think the electorate moved THAT much in less than 1 month with no real scandal...)

But I have a question for the PPP defenders and accusers alike:  What result would we see tonight would make you classify their last poll as "Great" and what would make you say "They blew it".  I think it's most insightful to decide before the election than to spin it afterward.  For example, I think if the election is any tighter than 5 points (or a Kelly win), they really blew it.  10 to 15 point Barber win, they did a great job.  5 to 10 point win (or 15-20 point blowout), eh, okay result, but nothing to brag about or to tout as showing their genius.  Thoughts?  I think it's much more meaningful to have this discussion today, rather than tomorrow...


[ Parent ]
8-15 Barber win = relatively good poll
<8, >15 + bad. <6 = terrible.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
And If Kelly Wins...
...it would completely shred their credibility. Getting close to the margin is more about "precision" - but getting the winner wrong is about accuracy.

If your polls don't even choose the correct winner (esp. when being this far off on the margin), you might as well not even be polling.

But the NV-02 result does imply that PPP could be off by that much.

If they are, and Kelly wins, I intend to fully ignore them (even their "LV" polls) from here on out through Nov...  


[ Parent ]
My gut still says Barber wins by about 5.


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
6-14 point win -- nailed it.
>14 -- eh, they were closer than anyone else
<6, Barber still wins -- bad
Kelly wins -- terrible

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
Why
Do you only give them 2 points upwards (on the Barber margin), but 6 points lower?

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Look at the undecideds in their poll.
I expect them to swing toward Kelly, I don't think Barber can get much higher.

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
PPP misses this year
PPP also missed badly on the IL-10 primary, saying Sheyman would win by 11%, when Schneider won.  They also had a big miss in the FL GOP Primary back in January.

33, R, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Very good point
They're quickly becoming another Rasmussen.
I hope that they improve and become great. I really want to have good pollsters around.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Also remember that releasing a poll like PPP's will help Barber and hurt Kelly
People like voting for a winner. PPP's poll can have an effect of energizing Dems, depressing GOP turnout & telling Indys that everyone elese is voting for Barber so jump on the bandwagon. So the poll is not some neutral snap shot but a campaign tool that is put out before the election by a Kos affiliated Democrat polling firm.

[ Parent ]
WaPo
Republicans are quietly expressing pessimism about the Giffords race

http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

They are carrying water for Ds by spinning it as having to do with Medicare and SS when it has mostly to do with Giffords being shot.

25, Male, R, NY-10


[ Parent ]
I'd say they are carrying water by calling it "The Giffords Race"
Even when Dems were calling it "Kennedy's Seat" in Mass, they didn't say that Scott Brown and Coakley were deadlocked in the "Kennedy Race".

[ Parent ]
WaPo Also Reported PPP's Poll Yesterday...
...without mentioning that the internals were showing something different.

There definitely seems to be a concerted MSM campaign to depress GOP turnout on election day in AZ-08 - even FNC got in to the act today.  


[ Parent ]
PPP has Obama
ahead with indies by 8%?  If I read that right. TIPP poll has Romney ahead among indies by 7%. Of course PPP finds alot of Ds as well.  

[ Parent ]
I dont think its a coincendnce that PPP polls have changed sicne they hooked up with Kos
Polls can set a narrative as well as tell a story. I think PPP employer Kos has a vested interest in setting a narrative and I think the PPP polls are adjusted to reflect that.

[ Parent ]
I agree, and I'm suspicious of their polls for Kos
but there would be no reason to suspect their independent polls, quite the opposite actually. If they've gone bad I'm not sure to blame Kos would be quite right.

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
I don't think Kos was the innocent victim in the Research 2000 mess
While I dont think Kos knew Research 2000 was faking their results I do think there was pressure from Kos to get the kind of results they wanted to see. I wouldnt be surprised to see that happening again.

[ Parent ]
Pretty strong evidence for the suspicion on DK/R2k
Is that they made a deal quietly in the end and didn't publicize it. He started with fanfare and ended quietly.
He probably told them to cook actual polls by adjusting for their narrative, R2k just went a little further.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
To put into context
Obama up 8 means (with uniform swing) Obama is up 55-44 in CO, 56-43 in NV, 55-44 in IA, 56-43 in PA, 58-42 in PA, 59-40 in WA etc.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
There is no such thing as uniform swing


(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
It just happens in almost every single district


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
*58-42 in (PA) NJ


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
North Dakota
It stands to reason that Romney romped in the western side of the state but Nit the eastern. Western North Dakota is where all if the oil fields are. And the two.main population centers in Eastern North Dakota are Fargo and Grand Forks, which are quite liberal by.prairie state standards.

Speaking.of.prairie states, has anyone noticed that the eastern portion of these states tend to be far more Democratic, and the western portions tend to be.far more Republican? This is true in North Dakota, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, and to a lesser extent South Dakota.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


Probably harder to poll the western part of the state . . .
given all the recent arrivals.  On the other hand, many of these folks may be not be registered to vote in the state.  

Berg should get some campaign folks out to the western portion of the state and register voters pronto.  


[ Parent ]
function of where the urban areas are located
North Dakota: Bigger urban centers in the East

Iowa: More urban centers in the east than west.

Kansas: All urban centers in the eastern third of the state

Nebraska: Is there an urban center more than 30 miles west of Nebraska's eastern border at all?

South Dakota: The bigger urban center is in the east.


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
Middleboro, MA
passes $20 fine for public swearing. http://www.enterprisenews.com/...

R - MD-7

Beyond stupid
nt.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
dumb dumb dumb
I would be pissed if my city did this. I am not going to watch my language for anyone.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Freedom of Speech
I don't see how this one is going to be held up by the court of law. Any lawyers want to chime in?

27, IL-7, Fiscal Conservative

[ Parent ]
Heh, I'm surprised this passed in MA
doesn't really bother me, seeing as I don't cuss anyway.  

22, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Matt 6:25-34    

[ Parent ]
Apparently they dont have the 1st Amendment in MA
This is so F***ing dumb!

[ Parent ]
Random stuff
How come Huntsman got 9% in Hansford county TX and 11% in Rockwall?

25, Male, R, NY-10

Not sure about Hansford, but
Rockwall is pretty wealthy (wealthiest county in Texas) and has a lot of high-information voters who probably just knew about Huntsman and liked him.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Obama Campaign Ad
I see the same attack ad on Romney about 4-5 times a night on MASN during Washington National's games. Besides this being a collosal waste of cash the ad itself is crap.

It shows two full quotes of Romney making statements about his ability to create jobs/understand jobmaking and then attacks his time as governor.

Rule 1 of campaign ads (and I did them for 7 years) is "Don't make Your Opponents Case for Them". If you are only casually paying attention to the ad you'd think it was a Romney ad, the only part that stands out is Romney speaking.

If these ads were even a threat I'd bet you'll see a copycat ad by Romney using the same quotes and mocking the attack section by talking positively about his time as Baine/GovMA.



Marco Rubio 2016, please


NY-Sen: Rudy records radio spot for Turner
http://www.capitaltonight.com/...

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

Prediction time
AZ-8: Barber 52 Kelly 46
ME-Sen (R): Poliquin 40 Summers 25 Bennett 15 Schneider 8
ME-Sen (D): Dill 40 Dunlap 30 Hinck 25
ND-Sen: Berg 80 Sand 20
ND-AL: Cramer 55 Kalk 45 (I think the establishment helps him close the gap at least)
NV-4: Cegavske 32 Tarkanian 31 Schwartz 30 (think this one is a real nailbiter)
SC-7 (R): Bauer 35 Rice 15 Prosser 12
SC-7 (D): Brittain 45 Tinubu 35
VA-Sen: Allen 75 Marshall 10 Jackson 5 Radtke 5

R - MD-7

I still think Tark wins


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Wouldn't suprise me
though I'm hoping against it.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
I don't think things changed "enough"
From when Tark was way up in his internal. There is still the huge name rec gap.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Remember turnout will be tiny though
there's no other competitive race above this one. So the voters will likely be more informed here than average. The Vegas area pundits think this will be a 3-way tossup so I'm going with them.

It would be a real shame if Tarkanian won this though. He has no chance while the other two have a small shot at winning.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
SC-7
Spreads too big. Bauer will finish 1st, but not by that much. Rice and Jordan for # 2 is close. Prosser a little further back.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
He's Also Way Off in AZ-08
If Barber wins, it'll be closer than that.  

[ Parent ]
Predictions~
AZ-08:
Barber - 53
Kelly - 45

ME-Sen (D):
Dill - 50
Hinck - 25
Dunlap - 20
Pollard - 5

ME-Sen (R):
Poliquin - 35
Summers - 30
Bennet - 20
D'Amboise - 10
Shneider - 10

ND-Sen:
Berg - 60
Sand - 40

ND-AL:
Cramer - 65
Kalk - 35

SC-07 (D):
Brittain 50
Tinbu 30

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
WA-01: Darcy Burner celebrates abortion
Think I was kidding? Think again.

"If you are a woman in this room - and statistically what I am about to say is true of about a third of the women in this room - if you're a woman in this room who has had an abortion and is willing to come out about it, please stand up," Burner said attempting to demonstrate her point. "Now, if you are willing to stand with every woman who is willing to come out about having had an abortion, please join them and stand up."

Conservative blogger Melissa Clouthier, who in attendance, reported that nearly everyone stood.

"This is how we change the stories in people's heads," Burner explained, adding that "we need to make it okay for women to come out about the choices that we've made."

According to Clouthier, the spirit in the room was one of celebration for abortion.

Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2012/06...

What, did she then bake cakes for everyone who had had abortions and tell them how wonderful each and every one of them are? Most people who are pro-choice seem to believe that abortion should be "safe but rare." She seems to harbor a belief that abortions should be rare and common and that we should use abortion as birth control and that women should be proud of having abortions.

Her attitude is absolutely disgusting. I think this shows how incredibly crazy she is and it shows just how much we want her to face John Koster.

A friend of a friend's mom volunteered very intently for Burner, spending a lot of time helping the campaign. However, as he got to know her, he became more and more disheartened and couldn't end up voting for her because of antics like this. I actually think there's something not quite right with her.


Well
I'm not a Burner supporter, I'm for DelBenne, but I don't see this as celebrating Abortion.

I know some women who have had abortions and they all say it makes you feel extremely alone, lonely, like you have no support, everyone is ashamed of you etc.  So I see what Burner did as more of a support for those who have had one, to show them they aren't bad people, there are others like you etc.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
I am pro-choice BUT
having had an abortion is nothing to be proud of.  

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!


[ Parent ]
Oh I agree
But I don't see this as being proud per se, more just solidarity.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
I don't like airing one's dirty laundry in public
call me old school.

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!


[ Parent ]
This Mindset Pervades The Entire (Feminist) Left (nt)
P.S. I really, really hop Burner wins (and stunts like this should help her consolidate the 'Left' vote) - if Koster faes her, I think he beats her cold.  

[ Parent ]
CA prop 29 might still pass
It's closer. http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns...

25, Male, R, NY-10

Unlikely
I think there's still too much for "Yes" to overcome.  

[ Parent ]
Wow
If PPP has it Romney+2, I've got to think the actual margin is much higher than that.

This would explain why Sabato was on FNC yesterday, basically poo-pooing Obama's chances in NC.  


[ Parent ]
SurveyUSA says Romney +1, Civitas says Romney +2


[ Parent ]
That Was also last month when PPP had Obama up 1 n/t


22, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Matt 6:25-34    

[ Parent ]
Obama only up
76/20 on AA's. HUH? Did gay marriage really hurt him that much?

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1



[ Parent ]
Unions once again show their disgusting face
BuzzFeed has learned that their powerful federal parent union, known as AFSCME, is planning to dive into the race on Barron's behalf. Another key New York State public workers union, the Civil Service Employees Association, meanwhile, blocked an AFL-CIO effort to endorse Barron's rival.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/buzzfe...

25, Male, R, NY-10

If there was a 3rd or 4th candidate in this race I think Barron could have won
But I cant see him winning a 1-1 with Jeffries. Towns did Jeffries a favor with his late exit from the race.

[ Parent ]
Terrible
What in the world could they have against Jeffries?

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Jeffries has shown support for Charter schools
This is payback for that and a way to send a message to others that you better not support education reform or we will go so far as to support a loon like Barron over you.

[ Parent ]
Jeffries is too pro-school reform (pro-charter schools) for the unions . . .
He's gotten a lot of funding from the NYC liberal elites, who are overwhelmingly pro-school reform

[ Parent ]
Ras: Romney +1 in Iowa
http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

19, Republican, KS-03
Standing strong with Senator Roberts and Governor Brownback.


I actually could buy this
seeing as Obama and Romney are spending big bucks in the state already.  

22, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Matt 6:25-34    

[ Parent ]
Very close to Marist
numbers in Iowa.

[ Parent ]
FL-18
Just a side note, but whoever does West's info graphics for Facebook is pretty good at his job.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

KS filing deadline passed
Tim Huelskamp and Kevin Yoder(!) go unopposed in general election and primaries.

Complete list of all filed candidates
http://www.sos.ks.gov/election...

19, Republican, KS-03
Standing strong with Senator Roberts and Governor Brownback.


Wow
Sad for Democrats.  Which is the slight McCain district and which district added Douglas?

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
KS-2 added Douglas and Yoder's is slight McCain n/t


19, Republican, KS-03
Standing strong with Senator Roberts and Governor Brownback.


[ Parent ]
13 seconds...


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Yoder is the barely McCain district
Jenkins got a little bluer.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Not According To...
...this.

If that's right, McCain won it by 1%, and Yoder's district is now R+5(!).

Meanwhile, Jenkins' district is still R+7.5 - I'm not particularly worried about it.  


[ Parent ]
Number is too high
There's no way the district is 49.9-49.8. All the other Kansas districts were around 98.1% for the two candidates.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
That's MikeMak's Point
He's saying the new KS-03 was actually 49.9M-48.8O (not 49.8%O), which means McCain actually won it by 1%, and making it R+5.

I wish I still had access to DRA, because I'd like to plug this district in and check it myself.  


[ Parent ]
Just adds to the number of potentionally vulnerable seats
that the Democrats are giving a pass to. It's not a serious attempt at regaining the majority this cycle.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Wife of D congressman only got 39% in 2010
When it was an Obama district.
Even a top-tier candidate would have gotten crushed.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
When your trying to regain the majority
you have to contest seats that were recently held by your party. In the South, there are over a dozen in that catagory that have no or nobody opponents. If you give away to many your not going to get there. I think this is the case this cycle.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Perplexing
Democrats are going hard after a lot of other districts that are more Republican and they haven't held. In 2006 they pulled off a huge upset in Kansas, so they must have something going for them there.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
In my memory
only KS1 has never been represented by a D. I defer to others but I understand Jenkins is not facing a top tier foe in KS2.

The D's failure to really compete for the house in 2012 is getting to be a real story. Of course I have said this over and over again so let me repeat "the Obama message is less popular then he is". I do not buy Obama at +8. I personally think the race is tied and if you buy turnout models a slight Romney edge. Either way substract 4 to 8 points for generic D message. So the DCCC and on the ground democrats are not wasting time against GOP freshman in KS or even Jenkins.

How about the primary states tonight?

I think SC7 is a lost cause now for Ds. Maybe VA2 gets a struggle in the fall. I think ND is a waste of time for DCCC and AR is a vast wasteland for congressional D candidates this year. NV is it as NV3 & NV4 will draw tons of DCCC money because out of +20 years up tonight those two are about it for races. NV2 has more or less been conceded to Rs this fall. The D's contested 4 VA seats in 2010, two Kansas seats, 2 SC seats, 2 AR seats and two in NV. We might see 3 races in these states in 2012 and there are two new seats!!!


[ Parent ]
KS-1
was represented by a Democrat for one term in 1953-55. Democrats not fielding a candidate in KS-1 isn't unusual-they didn't field a candidate there in 2000, 2002 and 2004. But not fielding one in KS-3 is more unusual-the last time they failed to get somebody to run there was in 1986. And while any Democrat was almost certain to lose anyway, it doesn't look good to leave a seat unchallenged that you just held for 12 years.  

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
I am sure the
redistricting mess hurt the D's some as under various maps Douglas county and KCKS were placed in various CDs under various writeups. You can't really run in KS3 if you live in KS1 or KS2 can you?  Okay actually you can but that's another matter. The real matter is that Yoder is ideal for KS3 and will likely be congressman there until he no longer runs there.  

[ Parent ]
Kansas Senate
some interesting notes: two sets of incumbents were double-bunked, Umbarger(M) and King(C) in the Southeast (who will square off in an epic primary) and Schmidt (D) and Ostermeyer (M) in far West KS. Another double-bunking was Apple (C) and Merrick (C) in south Johnson, but that was averted by Merrick bailing and running for the House. Two Johnson County moderates, Huntington and Vratil, are retiring, along with rural moderate Taddiken.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
How do you keep track of the moderates and conservatives?
I've looked before for some list-hoping that maybe there was some conservative group that kept a list of who was who. The only way I have found is to look at when certain people are mentioned in news articles as a moderate or conservative. Is that what you did here, or is there some other way you found these out?

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
[sigh]
Well thank goodness Tobias Schlingensiepen filed at least.

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
What's Wrong with Kansas?
Obviously the Democrats cannot even field candidates.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
New Hampshire: Ex-Sen. John Sununu Could Eye Comeback
I would love to see his favorable/unfavorable ratings
Before he gets the red carpet treatment. I wish there was another Kelly Ayotte out there in NH - a young female prosecutor that is well respected.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Joe Scarborough voted for Ron Paul in the primary
http://www.politico.com/news/s...

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

He is all over the map politically
I have no idea what he stands for ideologically any more. One day he sounds like he thinks the Republican Party is too moderate and then the next he thinks it's gone too far to the right. It seems like every Republican is either too moderate or too conservative for him. I remember thinking when he was first elected to Congress that he seemed like a future leader for the party. What a joke he has become.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
Its amazing how a paycheck from MSNBC can tie a conservative up in knots


[ Parent ]
Siena has Obama up 59-35
That would be a 24 point lead, down 2 from 2008. Most other polling has it similar.

He leads in the city 70-24, in the suburbs 51-45, and upstate 52-40. Mitt Romney's approval rating is 42/51 in the suburbs, Obama is 50/48.

Link is a PDF.

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedf...


NY Assembly members caught on film breaking chamber rules
http://www.legislativegazette....

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

In other news, sun rises in east
Ahh, the fourth estate, naively thinking that votes in the NYS legislature actually mean something.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Yes
It is qutie amusing the fourth estate thinks the NYS Assembly will follow its own rules.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
I love how if you sign in all your votes are counted as Yes votes!
Which means if an Assemblymember signs in for the day, goes to the bathroom & drops dead he can still vote! I remember a newspaper story from a few years ago that showed exactly what Assemblymembers where actually doing while the were voting "Yes" in the State Assembly.

[ Parent ]
sounds like an old episode of the Simpsons
The one where after Homer figures out that he should hit "Y" and "enter" after every question he rigged a mechanical devise to do so while he left the building.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
It wasnt a mechanical device
it was a drinking bird! And his use of it leads to a nuclear meltdown so I guess the analogy is quite adept since the use of auto yes voting is leading NYS to a fiscal meltdown.

[ Parent ]
Reagan Democrats
RyaninSEPA has talked about this, but it really does annoy me when people call blue collar voters Reagan Democrats!  Those areas voted for Mondale; check the map.

Reagan Democrats, like "moderates," are all over the map ideologically.

My dad is pro choice, pro SSM, pretty wealthy, well educated (although he was in a union when he was younger), and considers himself ideologically similar to Bill Clinton.  But he's a Reagan Dem.  The media is incredibly stupid.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


Reagan Dems
Many of them were blue collar types, but they are often associated with any blue collar voter.  The bulk of PA Reagan Democrats were blue collar voters, but they were blue collar voters in Reading, Scranton, Allentown, and Erie while the blue collar voters around Pittsburgh actually grew more Democratic at the same time.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
SC now #1 exporter of autos
surpasses Michigan
http://www.thestate.com/2012/0...

SC1-Charleston

That reminds me of that Super Bowl ad.
It was basically flipping the UAW the bird on national television,

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Arizona: Trent Franks Signals He Could Back Wil Cardon
IL-12 gets a new democratic applicant
Gen. Enyart retired from the National Guard and now announces candidacy for IL-12.  A total of 10 democrats submitted applications.

http://capitolfax.com/2012/06/...

IL-11/M/44/Libertarianish Independent


Reuters Poll: Obama goes from +7 to +1
http://mobile.reuters.com/arti...
Among registered voters.
Of course, PPP says that Obama is up by 8 points.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

Cornyn calls for Holder's resignation
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

Well, this is getting interesting.  Cornyn is no Jim Demint, so the house might actually vote to hold Holder in contempt.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18

Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


Wall Street really in the tank for Romney
http://www.politico.com/news/s...

Problem for Obama is that he was the big wall street financier 4 years ago.

27, R, PA-07.


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