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Evening Political Roundup For June 13, 2012

by: SCRep

Wed Jun 13, 2012 at 17:30:00 PM EDT


Adelson: Billionaire conservative casino mogul Sheldon Adelson is giving $10 million to the super PAC Restore Our Future supporting GOP nominee Mitt Romney. The $10 million figure appears to be the largest single donation towards Romney's efforts so far.

Arkansas: Arkansas Attorney General Dustin McDaniel (D) became the first major candidate to announce he will seek the Governor's office in 2014. Arkansas Gov. Mike Beebe is term limited at the end of 2014.

IL-12: Retired Army National Guard Maj. Gen. William Enyart has jumped into the race for retiring Rep. Jerry Costello's seat. Local Democratic officials had set up a process to pick a new candidate by the end of June after Democratic nominee Brad Harriman unexpectedly dropped out. Enyart is the first well known Democrat to apply for the spot by submitting his required questionnaire to Costello and local party officials.

North Carolina: In the North Carolina Governor's race, Pat McCrory leads Walter Dalton 47 to 40 percent, almost identical to his 46 to 40 percent advantage in May, according to a new PPP poll.

NRCC: The NRCC has reserved $18.2 million in post Labor Day television airtime, spread across 27 competitive districts. The committee plans to invest heavily in the Boston, Denver, Las Vegas and Sacramento, Calif., markets, with a combined $8.6 million buy.

SC-7: The state Democratic Party is calling for a runoff to take place between Glora Bromell Tinubu and Preston Brittain. South Carolina Democratic Party Chairman, Dick Harpootlian released a statement that said simply discarding the votes for Chesterfield County state representative Ted Vick was not appropriate, calling for those votes to be included in the total and for the commission to proceed with a runoff in two weeks.

SCRep :: Evening Political Roundup For June 13, 2012
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Jesse Kelly May Drop Out of AZ-02
http://livewire.talkingpointsm...

He is taking a couple of days to reconsider his candidacy.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


I will think much better of him if he does
No sense running for a third time in a bluer district against a candidate you just lost to.

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)

[ Parent ]
Who was the last candidate to win after losing?
I know it's rare for a candidate who wins a special to lose the next November, partly because they might be in a safe district. Charles Djou did, but that wasn't against the same field.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
And Don Cazayoux, but same as Djou
Different field. Hard to think of someone who lost, then won in November.

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)

[ Parent ]
Well there was that Texas election which had the special election & regular election the same day
with the same candidates that had different results.

But that had to do with the candidate being a write in in one of those two elections since Delay waited too long to try to get off the ballot.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
Two of them in 1980
Mick Station in WV-3 and James Nelligan in PA-11.

R, WV-1

[ Parent ]
*Staton, not Station
nt

R, WV-1

[ Parent ]
A more recent example
Mark Neumann in 1994.

R, WV-1

[ Parent ]
also
If he doesn't want to get branded for life the with the "L" word (not Liberal but the other L word), it would be wise for him to sit out an election cycle or two.


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
no the
loser label

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Hah
We need to be more specific so that we know which one would apply to Jesse Kelly. :)

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)

[ Parent ]
Earlier DCCC buy
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

It's interesting to see where they matched and diverted from the NRCC. The DCCC is going after Florida districts, IA-3, IA-4, and Philadelphia. In fact, Philadelphia, Orlando and Tampa were among the largest reserved. And this was in April, so it's not like the Pennsylvania map was unknown.

I imagine that the DCCC is taking another look at Sacramento and Boston, #1 and #2 on the NRCC ad buy.

Neither is targeting IN-2, OK-2, GA-12, NC-11, NC-13, MD-6, or UT-2.

Both California and New York were noticeably missing on the DCCC buy. The NRCC only had one California market. It's possible both parties will look at the two states again.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


No presidential
There should be about 7 somewhat competitive races in upstate NY. Clearly the democrats are not serious about taking back the house. Both sides may not have had to reserve time because there will be no presidential ads here.

NY-24

[ Parent ]
Why Boston?
n/t

NY-3

That's what I'm wondering
I think there's some bleed into NH but not much.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-14

Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
MA-6?


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
NH-02 and some of NH-01
The swing areas, with the exception of the Lakes Region which is in the Portland Market, are all in the Boston media market.

This therefore likely means MA-06 and NH-02 are the priorities, with a bit of cover for Guinta. Consensus seems to be he is a very weak incumbent, but no one seems to think he will lose to Shea-Porter.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
All of NH-01 except Carroll is in Boston
Carroll is in Portland, although you can get Portland stations in most of the district.

The key regions of NH-02 are in Boston, but there's significant territory in Burlington, along with Coos County in Portland,


[ Parent ]
NH-01 is probably the reason.
They may hurl an ad bomb at Tierney as well.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
SC-07: Rice or Bauer?
Whom do you predict will win and whom do you want to win? Why (for both questions)?

From the old IL-10/new IL-09, living in PA-07
The GOP's roadmap to restored relevance: more Steve Litzows and fewer Steve Kings


Rice on both


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
*Glares*
Please don't skip the "why" part; that's the most important part for educational purposes. :p

From the old IL-10/new IL-09, living in PA-07
The GOP's roadmap to restored relevance: more Steve Litzows and fewer Steve Kings


[ Parent ]
Why
Why Rice will win: Even with high name rec, Bauer only got a vote percentage in the low 30s. Rice has a better image. Rice is a very Horry County-centric candidate, not a carpetbagger like Bauer.

Why I want Rice to win: Bauer seems a bit iffy on ethics. Rice also has experience keg isolating on the county commission.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)


[ Parent ]
Rice on both
because Andre Bauer is a gaffe machine and more than a little slimy.

R, WV-1

[ Parent ]
depends on who wins the Dem nomination
if it's Tinubu (and it looks like it is), then Rice, because Tinubu can't beat Bauer.
If it's Brittain, then Bauer, because he'd be vulnerable, although it'd Lean R.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Brittain
Has turned out to be a poor candidate. He outraised Tinubu 500k to 200k and had Clyburn (who represents some of the counties of the new SC7) Spratt, Vincent Sheheen, Jim Hodges, and nearly all local and state Democrats behind him. He won 29% in his base of Horry County yesterday and greatly underperformed expectations. I think people who say he'd be a strong candidate in the Fall would have to reaccess if somehow he bacame the nominee, which now looks very unlikely. He totally flopped yesterday.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
I don't think he'd be all that strong
But he seems much more electable than Tinubu, who'd make the race Likely/Safe R.

With Brittain it's probably Lean/Likely R, against Bauer.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Rice
Rice should have the edge but a 2 week runoff has alot of uncertainty. Jay Jordan's endorsement having received 22% and being the only candidate from the Pee Dee could be important, and if it goes to Bauer, I'd have to reaccess. Both have raised about the same amount of $, but I think Rice's greatest advantage is the residency issue and opportunism charge. Bauer has moved all over the state while in office and to run for office and did the same in this district. The district is new so having someone who is from the district as the first representative is important. Rice is from Horry, the population center, and Bauer just moved there last year. Bauer had the greatest name ID, being a satewide official until last year and running for Gov in 2010, so if he could only get 32% some of which was soft you have to wonder what his ceiling is. Tinubu being the D nominee does help Bauer somewhat as the electability argument is now moot. Bauer is running nominally to Rice's right, Rice more a mainstream conservative image. If Bauer can keep it close in Horry and win the PeeDee (Jordan's endorsement would be big), I could see him winning. Most are putting bets on Rice as a slight favorite for now, but subject to change. I would go with Rice, for the same reasons listed above (opportunism, moving into the district).

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Rice, on Both
Based on his last campaign, I consider Bauer to be one of the most corrupt and distasteful GOP pols out there. I hope he never wins another office again.

I think Rice will win because he will consolidate the anti-Bauer vote, which will add up to >50%.  


[ Parent ]
Interestin answers so far
I'm surprised no one is  pulling for Bauer. I'm for Rice, fyi, although I was originally for Prosser0.

From the old IL-10/new IL-09, living in PA-07
The GOP's roadmap to restored relevance: more Steve Litzows and fewer Steve Kings


[ Parent ]
ha
why are you surprised? he's one of the most embarrassing House candidates in the country (although, off the top of my head, Charles Barron is defintely worse)

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Way overstated
Bauer's biggest problem is he's moved all over the state depending on the office and moved into Myrtle Beach to run for Congress. His electoral track record up until his run for Gov. in 2010 was as one of the best campaigners in SC and a fast rising star. I think people's impressions of him nationally from sensational accounts in the media (speeding tickets, comment about stray dogs) is far different than his reputation in SC.  

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Article talks about Bauer's ups and downs
[ Parent ]
well
among serious contenders (not Some Dudes) who is worse on the GOP side?

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
That's subjective
In the district he's running for he finished first in his primary, has a good shot at the runoff, and would be favored to win the seat in the Fall. Scores of serious candidates in primaries have failed to get that far.  

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
ME-1
State Sen. Jon Courtney has won over Some Dude Patrick Calder by just 265 votes. http://www.therepublic.com/vie...

R, WV-1

Roaring toward November!
Maine has just been a bummer of a state for us recently.

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)

[ Parent ]
Patty Murray can't say, "Cynthia Dill"
http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

That's pathetic. If they weren't going to back her they shouldn't have had a primary. What's the point of having a political party if you're not going to support your party's nominees?

The Republican establishment may have preferred Lisa Murkowski in 2010, but Joe Miller was the nominee. I doubt they spent a lot of money there, but at least they recognized that.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Just as a point of reference
"I congratulate Charlie Summers on winning the Maine Republican Senate Primary and look forward to his election in November.  Charlie is a former small businessman and a Navy Veteran who believes we must restore fiscal responsibility and finally focus on pro-jobs policies in Washington, while his two opponents are emblematic of everything that is wrong with Washington - higher taxes, increased government spending and massive government regulations on small businesses.  Maine deserves a Senator like Charlie Summers who will be a real independent thinker and leader." - U.S. Senator John Cornyn, NRSC Chairman

Looks like we know which side is more serious about courting the King.


[ Parent ]
Republican shouldn't court Angus King
He's not a Republican and isn't our nominee. If he's elected, you court him, but he's just like any other opponent now.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Spike Lee doesn't think everyone on this board is a racist
http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

"I can't say to all the people that are unhappy with him that they're racist people," Lee said of Obama's critics. "People ain't got jobs, people are hurting. So I don't care what color you are, if people are out of work, it's tough. And then when you're the first African American president, that's not helping either."

I suppose if the President were White no one would blame him for the crappy economy.

But Martin Sheen is more optimistic:

"Don't get me started on the Republicans," Sheen said. "They're going to jump on all the things he didn't do, but I think he'll beat the hell out of them, frankly. When you put him and [presumptive Republican presidential nominee Mitt] Romney together you'll see the difference between a man living an honest life and a hustling politician."

How dare the Republican jump on all the things Barack Obama didn't do? That's just unfair. Well, let's hope no one listens to the Republicans saying these things. A President shouldn't be judged by what he fails to do.

I do laugh when he refers to Mitt Romney as "a hustling politician." You can criticize Mitt for many things but he's a corporate executive who is trying to be a politician. It's tough to call the guy who spent 4 years in political office the politician but the guy who's been in office for 16 years is "a man living an honest life." Or maybe I'm wrong and he's referring to Obama as a hustling politician.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Greek Elections poll-sorta that is
as Greece has officially banned any polling before this weekend's election. Here's what is happening in Greece today:

http://online.wsj.com/article/...

The Greeks are having a Depression era bank run on deposits. They are withdrawing money at the rate of a billion Euros a day.  Wow. I wonder if Spain will be next?

What are the odds that the old Greek coalition wins? If not it could be really brutal on Monday. Looks like Greeks are voting with their Dollars I mean Euros.  


I think you're slightly understating things.
Greece is doing worse than it did during the Great Depression.

Unemployment, for instance, is the highest that it's ever been since records started being kept.

http://mypolitikal.com/


[ Parent ]
Definitely
This is not a bank run by a dash to withdraw anything and everything.  I am waiting for the return of the Drachma at any moment.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Hard to say
Everyone is spinning. In the absence of polls we have rumors about polls, in this case, the selling is based on rumors about Syriza leading.

Frankly I am unsure if Syriza even wants government now. Better to have New Democracy take the fall for 30% unemployment and sweep in post-Austerity.

Most of the polls before they were embargoed had New Democracy narrowly ahead.

I should point out, Greece, like most European states has a powerful independent civil service which ones pretty much everything on a day-to-day level, but is especially influential right now with a non-partisan caretaker government in office. Given the importance of the 50 seat bonus to government formation, and the somewhat delicate economic situation, I would not put it beyond them to, well, finesse the results a little bit if its close with a wink and a nudge from Brussels.  

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
I guess is 1 or 2
percent of Euro economy and yet the markets are shaking!!!

European Banks and Insurance companies are all intertwined with the USA. It will not be pretty to see slatemate on Monday. I tend to agree that being in oppisition right now in Greece seems to be a winning political formula.  


[ Parent ]
Greece
Civil servants barely play a role on vote counting. Citizens are selected to serve at polling stations as a civil duty (akin to jury duty). Additionally there are two representatives of each competing party at every polling station (smaller parties obviously won't fill their quotas in most places, but larger ones are represented at every single location) monitoring the entire process. The votes are counted locally by those people and immediately published outside the polling station. The government only computes the national tally, but the results are published per polling station/precinct.

Any meaningful voting fraud would imply a massive conspiracy involving hundreds of people with opposed interests. Extremely implausible.  


[ Parent ]
The places to play with I would assume
Are on the margins. Ie. the abroad vote(now much much larger than it was before).

The UK already has serious problems with the integrity of the postal vote. Don't tell me they will somehow be conducting an election with people coming into the country, and leaving again.

And what you do is short of exact fraud. In such an environment, you play games with who gets back in when, what resources are available to them, basically you play the same game Lincoln did in 1864. Those didnt matter in the end, but had the margin been a 4th the size it was it might have,

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
There's no abroad vote
I don't know why you think it's much larger. It doesn't even exist. Greeks abroad can't vote in legislative elections (unless they travel back to their hometowns in Greece and are registered to vote there). No vote by mail whatsoever.

So I wouldn't worry too much about fraud, on the margins or not.  


[ Parent ]
Hypothetical question
if Gloria Tinubu had decided to run for congress in GA-13 rather than SC-7, what would her chances have been? It seems like she might have been able to run to Scott's left with some success.

R, WV-1

Probably
It would be better than her chances in SC-7.  Scott's at least nominally a blue dog, so there's certainly room in his seat for a left-wing primary challenger.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-14

Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
Scott has corruption issues too
So she probably could have gotten the CPA's backing.

[ Parent ]
Corruption alone
is almost never the way to defeat an incumbent in one of these districts (see TX-30 this year, NY-15 last cycle). But Tinubu probably could have made a go at it.

It's all just very weird, because she had a serious political and professional resume in Atlanta (legislature, city council, chairman of a college economics department) that would have made her a pretty legit candidate, even primarying an incumbent. To toss that out and move 500 miles for what is almost certainly a lower ultimate chance of victory than a GA-13 primary is strange to say the least.

R, WV-1


[ Parent ]
Yep, when researching her, I was surprised by this
"Former Atlanta City Council member Gloria Bromell-Tinubu, 57, qualified as a Democrat for House District 60. That's the seat held by Georganna Sinkfield, who's running for secretary of state. Bromell-Tinubu also served on the state Board of Education and finished third in the 2001 Atlanta mayor's race."
http://www.atlantaunfiltered.c...

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Of course it's not reason alone
But it's enough for a group like CPA to give you a second look when they're sorting through the hundreds of primary challenges each year.

The more you look at Tinubu's situation, the less it makes sense. In addition to Scott, you have a fairly unimpressive incumbent in GA-04, and the possibility that John Lewis (who's 72, with a lot of wear on his body) may retire in a few cycles.  


[ Parent ]
Definitely
There were two good options for her in Atlanta right now, and potentially a third in a few years.

Perhaps it had more to do with her day job: she's teaching at Coastal Carolina U right now. But then that doesn't make a terrible amount of sense either; while she's no Elizabeth Warren (snark) she's not a slouch on the academic CV either. You'd think she could have found something in Atlanta with all the universities around there.

It just keeps making less and less sense. This is someone who on the surface should have with strong political potential pulling a move worthy of a perennial candidate.

R, WV-1


[ Parent ]
She was quite impressive
In the Democratic primary winning 49/52% having resigned a job as a state rep. in another state less than a year earlier. Quite the accomplishment. Her chances in the general are a different story though, and the move overall is hard to figure out.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
William Enyart
has never been to Iraq or Afghanistan. I just reviewed his biography and list of medals and stuff, and despite being in the National Guard from 1985 onwards, he missed out on Desert Storm, Kosovo, Afghanistan, and Iraq. That's a pretty big hole in any military resume, and his opponents should call him out on it if he plays the veteran card too hard.

24, M, VA-11, moderate R

Not smart
He was in the military, just because he didn't serve in combat, it doesn't lessen his experience.  If his opponent goes with this route of attack I predict it will fail terribly.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Yep
Democrats tried this with Brown two years ago and it backfired terribly. If someone has volunteered to serve in the Armed Forces, they deserve respect no matter what the service was.

The way for Plummer to beat Enyart is to capitalize on him having no campaign experience and starting extremely late: blow him out on the air and outwork him on the ground. Plummer is capable of the former and can be convinced to do the later.

R, WV-1


[ Parent ]
Well I'll agree that it wouldn't be a smart attack
unless Enyart were to seriously overplay his hand. But, saying not going to war doesn't lessen his experience is like saying going to war doesn't add to a candidate's experience. You may as well say Blumenthal and McCain are equals.  

24, M, VA-11, moderate R

[ Parent ]
You as a Lt.
Might feel that way and it might work among fellow people in the military, but it doesn't work on the general public.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
SC-7
This is interesting-
"The S.C. Election Commission informed the state Democratic party that it would not count Vick's vote before the primary, spokesman Chris Whitmire said.
The commission based the ballot count on state law that says "the majority shall be ascertained by dividing the total vote cast for all candidates by two." Election officials took "candidates" to mean those who are active in the race, Whitmire said. Vick sent a letter withdrawing from the race after his arrest. "

Read more here: http://www.thestate.com/2012/0...

SC1-Charleston


This Sounds Ironclad
Reading this, it sounds to me like no runoff.  

[ Parent ]
Ironclad??
The decision is either based on law or it is not.  Whether and when the SCDP was informed about the decision is irrelevent.  

[ Parent ]
Actually, It's VERY Relevant
The fact that the Dems were notified beforehand, but didn't object until afterwards implies that their objections are not in fact legal, but political.

I think the fact that SC Dems were notified beforehand, and didn't object then pretty much torpedoes their argument.

I am pretty sure there will be no Dem runoff here, after seeing this.  


[ Parent ]
Interesting Fact
Since 1952, every Republican ticket has included a Nixon, Dole, Bush, or Arizona Senator. Advantage Kyl and Jeb Bush?  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


Haha
Chris Nixon Cox for VP!1!!1!1!!!1!

From the old IL-10/new IL-09, living in PA-07
The GOP's roadmap to restored relevance: more Steve Litzows and fewer Steve Kings


[ Parent ]
What's Lizzy Dole up to these days???
On second thought . . .

[ Parent ]
It wouldn't surprise me if McCain kinda-sorta considered her
But man, her re-election campaign should go down among the most underwhelming ever. And I'm not one for hyperbole.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
No
Get Jay Nixon to switch parties.

R, WV-1

[ Parent ]
sounds like
this trend will be broken whenever Romney selects the VP.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Well you can look at this from another angle as well
The last time a GOP Presidential ticket won without a Bush or Nixon on it was 1928!

[ Parent ]
Tom Rice's opening theme of the runoff
As I talked about earlier.

Friends,
Please take a minute to watch the attached video. It will give you a chuckle. But the meaning is very serious. This district has waited far too long to have our own congressman.
We cannot allow career politician Andre to come in here at the last moment and steal it from us. Andre has raised as much $ from Joe Wilsons district in Columbia, as he has here in the 7th! If you want Columbia to have 2 congressmen, and us to have none, vote for Andre.
If you want a 50 year native of the district who has worked here, worshipped here, and raised a family here. Someone who will fight for our district.....

VOTE FOR TOM RICE!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?...

SC1-Charleston


MI Poll: Obama leads by 2
http://ftpcontent.worldnow.com...

Barack Obama: 46.89%
Mitt Romney: 45.48%
Another candidate: 3.56%
Undecided: 4.07%

The decimal places and the third candidate results make the poll seem sort of funky, but maybe EPIC-MRA and the Glengariff Group weren't that off. As of now, PPP seems to be the outlier in Michigan.


2 polls make Michigan seem at least somewhat competitive
Of course, Rs might not have been so successful recently winning the state in presidential elections, but Rs win statewide just as consistently as Ds.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
outlier
EPIC-MRA is the only poll to show Romney leading and you consider PPP to be the outlier?  

[ Parent ]
Margin
PPP (D) showing Obama up double digits seems to be an outlier at this point with the two most recent polls showing it within 2 points.  PPP (D) is pretty quickly becoming the next Rasmussen.  Every single poll it does not will be viewed as suspect.  I doubt they are cooking the results Research 2000 style though.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Margin
The Real Clear Politics average has Obama winning by about 5%.  EPIC-MRA has Romney leading by 1% which means they are 6% off the average.  PPP is off by 9%.  So PPP isn't that much more off from the average than EPIC.

There's plenty to be suspect of in the two most recent polls that showed the race being very close.  EPIC-MRA is the only firm to show Romney leading in the last 2 years.  As I mentioned in today's thread, the poll from today very much under-represents voters 30 and under.    


[ Parent ]
Margin
That's because the PPP outlier skews the average.

You have 3 data points:
-1
+2
+14

Are you really arguing that +14 isn't the outlier? Come on. You can even throw the Glengariff Group (+5) poll in there. Obama has a low single digits lead; the PPP poll makes it a Safe D race. Obvious outlier.  


[ Parent ]
Polling
You really think that EPIC-MRA, which is the ONLY polling firm in 2 years to show a Romney isn't an outlier?

The EPIC-MRA and Baydoun/Foster polls are also skewing the average.  Of the 17 polls in the Real Clear Politics summary, 4 show a Romney lead...all of which have come from EPIC.  The poll from Baydoun/Foster is skewed toward old voters (83% of people in the poll are over 51 years old).  The PPP lead is high (which I stated when it was first released) but the Romney leading poll is also inaccurate.  

 


[ Parent ]
How many of these polls have been done
since Romney secured the nomination? How many have been since the slowdown of the economy in the last month or so?

Once you see the primary fight over some polling noise ends. In a poll if you ask if you support Romney, Paul or Santorum for President but then ask Romney - Obama guess what? Your primary preference for Paul or Santorum affects, for some voters, the GE matchups.


[ Parent ]
That's a tie
1% lead is immaterial.

And an outlier is a value point in a set that is far from the other values. Which one is it in this case?

You can't identify outliers by comparing values to the average, especially with such reduced data sets.

Polls from the last two months:
-1 (EPIC)
+2 (B/F)
+5 (GG)
+14 (PPP)

Deviation from the median:
4.5 (EPIC)
1.5 (B/F)
1.5 (GG)
11.5 (PPP)

Using the interquartile range method:
Q1=2
Q3=5
IQ=3

(Q1-1.5IQ)=-2.5
(Q3+1.5IQ)=9.5

The only poll that can be classified as an outlier is PPP's. All the others fall within the range.

I agree that Obama has a small lead, but PPP poll showing the state as non-competitive is definitely the outlier here.  


[ Parent ]
+1
I think that PPP might not even realize how fast they are becoming the Rasmussen of polls. Maybe their methodology is bad and they can't help it.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Exactly
I have said for awhile their methods must be the problem.  

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Who's arguing that? (nt)


[ Parent ]
From the disregard Rasmussen file
I do think North Dakota is probably closer than this
Assuming Thompson wins the primary. I expect Obama to win here by 5, but I don't frankly see how Baldwin gets even close to being within 5 of Obama given a look at that recall results map against any decent opponent.

Neumann does not quite qualify as decent. I am unsure on Fitzgerald. But Baldwin will be crushed in the north.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
As Wisconsin and Michigan tighten . . . .
New Jersey seems to be moving from blue to indigo and into NY/Mass territory.

Obama up by 23 . . . .

http://philadelphia.cbslocal.c...


100% bunk
There is no way this can happen even in the biggest wave years.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
I thought the same
when Thompson won his last Governor's race with 59% in 1998. That number was impossible for an R in WI. You cannot win by 18% in WI as an R.  

[ Parent ]
Agree
There are real demographic reasons for what is happening in Massachusetts(Minorities + Post-grads approaching 40% of the electorate). Thats not happening in New Jersey.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Since Patrick Murray left
That poll has been less reliable whereas the Monmouth Polls (where he went) has become extremely accurate.

[ Parent ]
Obamanomics
U.S. initial jobless claims +6k (from revised figure) to 386k, fifth increase in six weeks.
CPI -0.3% in May Vs. Unchanged in April.

25, Male, R, NY-10

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