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The Story on Voter registration

by: rdelbov

Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 10:15:28 AM EDT


for key states. What has happened in voter registration stats since 2008?  Have we seen a massive D surge?

 Here is May 2012 stats-click on highlighted links lets start with Nevada

May 2012  That 433,000 D and 394,000 R. Wow only a 39K gap.

Oct 2008  That's 531K D and 430K R. So in the last 42 months nearly 100K in D's have rolled off while only 36K republicans. The gap that was 100,000 voters is now less then 40,000.

December 2011 showed 446,000 Ds and 395,000 Rs so the trend towards R in total registration has continued.

 How about Colorado

May 2012 okay in May it 823K R 706K D

Oct 2008 it was 1,051,000 D and 1,069,000R. Of the SOS did not start to seperate active from inactive voters until 2011 but noted the gap between parties has increased nearly 100K in the Republican favor.

I could go now. Florida has 4.1 million republicans now compared to 4.549 million democrats. In 2008 it was 4.1 million republicans with 4.791 million democrats.  The D% has dropped by 2% or over 220,000 voters. In NC, NM, AZ, CO, OR and Florida there has been movement for every month towards the Rs in registration.

I have to do some stuff this-work!!!!!!!  So I will be back later. I need to update this diary for

North Carolina, Iowa, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Oregon and New Mexico.  I could do NY or OK but why bother? If anyone wants to help out by coming up with Oct/Nov 2008 plus the most current numbers for the above states I will update later. If not I guess the burden or the pleasure will be all mine.

NC update

1.986 million Rs Oct 2008  with 2.829 Million Ds

1.974 million Rs May 2012 with 2.732 Million D registered voters. So there are about 12 thousand fewer Rs while there are 90K fewer Ds. The real story in NC is that around 1.8 million voters have not voted in the last two election cycles. The rolls are so bloated in NC. If the state ever gets in line with HAVA provisions we will likely see 1.5 million voters removed.  I suspect the Rs will gain under that procedure.

Iowa shows 608R abd 599D. Iowa is always R right? Maybe not as in 2008 the numbers were 587R and 686R. So from Nov 2008 the D edge of 100K has changed to a +8R advantage. As this WAPO articles shows in 2008 all the movement was towards the Ds. Link So what does that mean for 2012? Why has the MSM media missed this story? I guess if the Obama does not feed the story to them its not news?

PA You can click to 2008 or get to 2012 stats on another screen. Here are the PA stats. 4.479 million Ds in 2008 compared t 3.4304 million Rs. In 2012 there are 3.071 million Rs compared to 4.1362 million Ds. Okay the D's lost 343K voters while the GOP lost 172K. The % of Ds went from 51.17 in 2008 to 50.22% in 2012 while the GOP % went up from 37.04% to 37.29%. Of Course CA is +12% D by registration and most people would agree that  at +13%D by registration that PA is more republican then the Golden state. Clearly PA has more conservative Ds then CA as while as more conservative independents.

Here's a little voter registration stat 101. I know I do not have a stat or math degree like 270 but here is a little back of the envelope math that everyone should be able to understand.

8.7 Million registered voters in PA in 2008.

5.8 Million people voted in PA in 2008.

Now poll after poll in 2008 showed that about 80 to 85% of registered voters were likely to vote. Why is that number 68% in PA? In other words why did only 68% of registered voters vote in PA in 2008? The simple answer is that the voter rolls in PA are bloated and that somewhere around 1 million voters need to be purged off the lists. Here's a link where it shows that 90% of VAP is currently registered. Ain't no way!!

NH--You can find the information from Sentinel's link in this thread. I hate to put it here as its a pain.  So here are the stats. Nov 2008 was 282,421D, 280,507R and 395600 indies. I believe Nov 2008 was the 1st time ever that the D's topped the GOP numbers in NH. In Jan 2012 the order was restored as there were 259,968R, 226,720D and 304,561 indies. I think that's about a 4% GOP edge.

Oregon might be my final state. 933K D 696K R with 2159 total in Nov 2008. Now its 827KD 659K R with 2049 total. Oh clink on  registration statistics on that link. So 106K fewer Ds, 39K fewer Rs and +35 indies or others over 3 1/2 years. About a 3% move to the R side. I cannot find 2008 stats for NM. I think this covers about every state that could be competitive. Maybe Maine could be done?

 

 

 

 

 

 

rdelbov :: The Story on Voter registration
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You forgot to write "NV"
In the first part.

26, Male, R, NY-10

It would be awesome to have all the states' numbers
In one diary.
Thanks for posting.

26, Male, R, NY-10

agreed
of course there's a large number of states that don't have partisan registration at all, but a proxy of how many voted in the Republican, Democratic, and other primary could be used in those states.


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
I Can Maybe Do That...
I think I have 2008 and 2010 numbers. The problem is that the 2012 numbers I want to use are for just before the election (i.e. they don't exist yet!). So I may not be writing anything up about that until Winter (after the election!!)...  

[ Parent ]
We want 'em now for prediction purposes
Hindsight is 20/20...

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
great post
I would definitely like to see this maintained in a table of some sort.

Like I said voter registration counts matter. We need to be gaining.

27, R, PA-07.


K I am going to
add that WAPO story from 2008 to my post when I get back. That's a big story from 2008 as the D surge in 2008 really showed up in registration stats. Really from early 2006 to Nov 2008 the D's increased numbers nearly every month in most states. So help it really matters. On the GOP side form Jan 2009 to now we have seen steady increases.

Yes folks have changed from D to R but we have seen folks who apparently are registering for the 1st time and going R. I think that's one reason the D's have been very slow registering folks this year is that young people are no longer hot to trot for Obama. If you set up a voter registration table now, based on ancedotal evidence, you might register as many Romney voters as Obama ones. Yup when you see a poll with a majority of white younger voters going for Romney you have to be more precise this year when you register voters.  


[ Parent ]
Thanks
Nice, informative post Rdel.   I remember some on our side arguing back in the summer of 08 that the registration stats were meaningless.  Turns out they were meaningful.

We may need IA.  NH is looking to be a huge challenge.  


[ Parent ]
Speaking of NH
that SOS apparently does not have voter registration stats. I hope they are not town or county based!!!

[ Parent ]
NH is here...
http://sos.nh.gov/2012BallotsN...

At the bottom, PDF file: Names Summary

Names on Checklist


[ Parent ]
Let's just say NH has
their own special way of doing things. Thanks I found the information.  You have to go to each election and near the end there is Names on checklist which is a summary of registered voters for each county and totaled for the state. Thanks


[ Parent ]
NC
Ds were +864k in Nov. 2008, +811 in Nov. 2010, now +758. The trend is clear.
http://www.app.sboe.state.nc.u...

26, Male, R, NY-10

From 2008
Rs are 26k, Ds 133k and Is are +178k.

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Minus 26k and minus 133k


26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Ah, but in Nov 2004....
D's were at +676k.

[ Parent ]
So it trended the other way and it's turning back


26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
And there were less people
So I doubt it was bluer by reg.

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
White Electorate is Shrinking
But there is reason to think the 760K Democratic edge is more real than the 660K one was.  For one thing, the important number is that White registration has actually remained stable since 2008, while African American and other registrations are both up.

Now

Whites: 72.5%

2008 Dec:

Whites: 73.3%

2004 May:

Whites: 77.8%

Whites are actually a minority of increased registrations since 2004.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
African Americans are also up 2.5% Since 2004
From 19.3% in 2004 to 21.6% in Dec 2008 to 21.8% now.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Same Pattern In Georgia
Where whites are now down to 60% of registered voters.

http://sos.georgia.gov/electio...

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Its not a concidence
that the three states who have struggled with implementing the HAVA provisions on maintaining an accurate voter registration list in my study NC-FL-PA have stats you have to take with a grain of salt.

IMO NC has about 800K to 1 million in excess registered voters. In 2008 there was 4.3 million votes and there is no way that there are 6.2 million in legit registered voters. They have tons of voters who need to be purged off rolls. So I think the AA & young voter numbers in NC are off. Ditto for Florida and PA so I would be cautious about making too many conclusions on some stats.

Now did AA voters turn out in big numbers in 2008? Nationally it went from 10% to 13% and in NC there was a 4% jump. Will it hold in 2012? I already made my prediction on another thread but my answer is no.  


[ Parent ]
True
But new registrations in North Carolina since 2008 have still been predominantly non-white. I would assume anyone registering in the last four years is relatively real. The other number in particular makes up a large part of the increase.

Georgia I tend to agree with you on. That said, its down to 59% White in the 2010 census. I suspect you could see the white percentage fall 1% or so to 64% in the electorate.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
There's a certain amount of recycling in
voter registration. Now PA or some other states keep up with stats but I am sure NC does. So if NC has 4.1 million white voters in 2008 and in 2012 that does not mean new white voters have not registered. Voters can die or move to another state and be removed while new white voters are added. I would to see NC get its stats in line like Oregon or NH and see how the stats fall out. Right now in PA & NC the state has not sorted out duplicate registrations within the state. So if someone registered when they went to school in Durham and re-registered upon graduation in 2009 they could still be on the books twice. At least that is what I understand where NC is at.  

[ Parent ]
Iowa
Is trending GOP in my opinion. It is over 90% white and aging, and primarily rural. Demographically it is a state that republicans should do very well in, although I guess things are rarely that simple. Still, I see it moving in that direction.

It has been D+1 for years but I expect that to change in the near future.  

22, male, R, MA-3 (home), NC-4 (school)


agreed with current Iowa trend (late 09 to present)
with the note that Iowa appears to be a really fickle state.
(It drifts R when the country does and D when the country does. In both cases by larger margins than the country as a whole moves.)



42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
Do voter registration statistics really matter? (Oregon)
Oregon

2008 Registration:
43% D
32% R
25% I

2008 Exit Poll:
36% D
27% R
37% I

2010 Registration:
42% D
32% R
24% I

2010 Exit Poll:
36% D
26% R
38% I

2012 Registration:
40% D
32% R
28% I


I think the trends do matter
The fact that Kentucky or Oklahoma are less Dem than they were 30 years ago while Maine, New Hampshire, Connecticut, and Vermont are more Dem than they were 30 years ago is significant.

The raw numbers don't really matter that much.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Well
how about NC and NM?

The Marist poll was 46D-29R in NC while by exit polls in 2004 NC was, I believe, 39D-32R. In 2008 NC was 43-32 on exits.

So yes OR, by exit polls, had more Ds but do you really want to compare every state by party ID as opposed to registered voter numbers?

OR is just about the only state, other then CA or NY, where Ds over perform (on exit polls) their party ID numbers. I might add why use exit polls numbers? Why not use Gallup party ID numbers for 2012?

http://www.nationalreview.com/...

Generally speaking the GOP comes out ahead using anything but party registration numbers.

Oh lets get to Oregon. Notice all of those indies. In 2008 they went big for Obama. In 2012, according to PPP, they are going big for Romney. That's the big change in Oregon.


[ Parent ]
I'll do NC in a minute (nt)


[ Parent ]
who knows whether the exit polls are accurate?
Ultimately as a time series in a state, voter registration matters. It's the deltas that matter, not absolute values.

Louisiana Democrats have lost a great deal of registered voters over the last decade.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
If I had any problems
with exit polls it would be from CO, WA, HI and OR. They are mostly mail in ballots. AZ and CA are pushing +50% as well. Do you interview people on the way to mailboxes?

Stay tuned. I would to see how they come up that stuff?


[ Parent ]
Louisiana
2004:

D: 57% (1457525)
R: 24% (556013)
Other: 19% (482362)

2012:
D: 49% (1400820)
R: 27% (733682)
Other: 24% (690862)

So Democrats have lost 56,705 votes.
Republicans have gained 117,669 votes.


[ Parent ]
Oregon part II on
voter registration. Let me be clear that while not writting off Oregon in 2012 it is by no means a top tier Romney target. If Romney is close in WA or OR then lots of other states would certainly be more likely to fall then that state.

My purpose in this post was to show voter registration trends in those states that are mildly or possibly competitive in 2012. It was pointless, IMO, to look at voter registration trends in NY or CA or CT or even OK or KY. If they are settled for either party why look at them?

So my 1st point was that in 2006-2008 time period these states show a move towards the Ds in voter registration trends and Obama won.

My second point is that the 2009-2012 trends have been steadily for the GOP. Is there a big story there going on that 99% of the MSM is missing? Will we see this WAPO story the week before the election detailing GOP registration gains while the news has been right in front of us for years? That's my primary point.


[ Parent ]
North Carolina
North Carolina

2004 Voter Registration (as of January 1, 2005)
46% D
35% R
19 % I

2004 Exit Poll
39% D
40% R
21% I

2008 Voter Registration
46% D
32% R
22% I

2008 Exit Poll
42% D
31% R
27% I


I can give you an estimate of
2010 exit poll numbers for NC but for whatever reason they did not do one that year. That has been a subject of discussion here between myself and another poster.  

[ Parent ]
Well, I think the bottom line in NC
is that Democrats will show out in less (%) than their registration says.

[ Parent ]
Nevada May 2012 statistics
By district:

1. 51% D 27% R
2. 34% D 44% R
3. 38% D 39% R
4. 44% D 35% R

State:
41% D 37% R

Heck is safe.

27, R, PA-07.


So 2 also got redder
Back to the mean. It explains the Amodei blowout.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
And NV-04 Looks Out Of Reach...
Which I think it definitely is with Tark.  

[ Parent ]
Skinny on NV4 numbers
113,312 D
89,857 R

So that's a 24K gap

How about throwing in 11,414 AIP or American Independent party members? Do they sound like Horsford or Tarkanian voters? How about 1300 liberterians?

I now % you never know but IMO that its closer to 113,312 to 101,000. That 24K gap between the parties is closer then one thinks

So can Tark close that 12K with 39K in other/independent voters?

The Tark path to winning is 60% of indies plus he needs to win 15% of democrats while he holds 95% of Rs. That's a path to victory for him. Horsford is the most liberal candidate ever nominated in NV and he is so tied to all the woes of North Las Vegas. It can be done.  


[ Parent ]
Tark Is Not The Candidate To Beat Him
It's not that Horsford wasn't "beatable" - he was. It's that Tark is not the candidate who can do that.

Still, we might have a shot at Horsford in 2014, when D turnout is down(?)...  


[ Parent ]
well it should be
For all the talk about proportional representation, Nevada is pretty fair in both houses, split 50/50.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Tark
says that many of the registered Dems are in the rural counties.  I obviously can't confirm that, but he believes they will vote for him.  If he's right, he can hit a last minute shot and win this.

Republican Medical Doc from New York, NY

[ Parent ]
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