for key states. What has happened in voter registration stats since 2008? Have we seen a massive D surge?
Here is May 2012 stats-click on highlighted links lets start with Nevada
May 2012 That 433,000 D and 394,000 R. Wow only a 39K gap.
Oct 2008 That's 531K D and 430K R. So in the last 42 months nearly 100K in D's have rolled off while only 36K republicans. The gap that was 100,000 voters is now less then 40,000.
December 2011 showed 446,000 Ds and 395,000 Rs so the trend towards R in total registration has continued.
How about Colorado
May 2012 okay in May it 823K R 706K D
Oct 2008 it was 1,051,000 D and 1,069,000R. Of the SOS did not start to seperate active from inactive voters until 2011 but noted the gap between parties has increased nearly 100K in the Republican favor.
I could go now. Florida has 4.1 million republicans now compared to 4.549 million democrats. In 2008 it was 4.1 million republicans with 4.791 million democrats. The D% has dropped by 2% or over 220,000 voters. In NC, NM, AZ, CO, OR and Florida there has been movement for every month towards the Rs in registration.
I have to do some stuff this-work!!!!!!! So I will be back later. I need to update this diary for
North Carolina, Iowa, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Oregon and New Mexico. I could do NY or OK but why bother? If anyone wants to help out by coming up with Oct/Nov 2008 plus the most current numbers for the above states I will update later. If not I guess the burden or the pleasure will be all mine.
1.986 million Rs Oct 2008 with 2.829 Million Ds
1.974 million Rs May 2012 with 2.732 Million D registered voters. So there are about 12 thousand fewer Rs while there are 90K fewer Ds. The real story in NC is that around 1.8 million voters have not voted in the last two election cycles. The rolls are so bloated in NC. If the state ever gets in line with HAVA provisions we will likely see 1.5 million voters removed. I suspect the Rs will gain under that procedure.
Iowa shows 608R abd 599D. Iowa is always R right? Maybe not as in 2008 the numbers were 587R and 686R. So from Nov 2008 the D edge of 100K has changed to a +8R advantage. As this WAPO articles shows in 2008 all the movement was towards the Ds. Link So what does that mean for 2012? Why has the MSM media missed this story? I guess if the Obama does not feed the story to them its not news?
PA You can click to 2008 or get to 2012 stats on another screen. Here are the PA stats. 4.479 million Ds in 2008 compared t 3.4304 million Rs. In 2012 there are 3.071 million Rs compared to 4.1362 million Ds. Okay the D's lost 343K voters while the GOP lost 172K. The % of Ds went from 51.17 in 2008 to 50.22% in 2012 while the GOP % went up from 37.04% to 37.29%. Of Course CA is +12% D by registration and most people would agree that at +13%D by registration that PA is more republican then the Golden state. Clearly PA has more conservative Ds then CA as while as more conservative independents.
Here's a little voter registration stat 101. I know I do not have a stat or math degree like 270 but here is a little back of the envelope math that everyone should be able to understand.
8.7 Million registered voters in PA in 2008.
5.8 Million people voted in PA in 2008.
Now poll after poll in 2008 showed that about 80 to 85% of registered voters were likely to vote. Why is that number 68% in PA? In other words why did only 68% of registered voters vote in PA in 2008? The simple answer is that the voter rolls in PA are bloated and that somewhere around 1 million voters need to be purged off the lists. Here's a link where it shows that 90% of VAP is currently registered. Ain't no way!!
NH--You can find the information from Sentinel's link in this thread. I hate to put it here as its a pain. So here are the stats. Nov 2008 was 282,421D, 280,507R and 395600 indies. I believe Nov 2008 was the 1st time ever that the D's topped the GOP numbers in NH. In Jan 2012 the order was restored as there were 259,968R, 226,720D and 304,561 indies. I think that's about a 4% GOP edge.
Oregon might be my final state. 933K D 696K R with 2159 total in Nov 2008. Now its 827KD 659K R with 2049 total. Oh clink on registration statistics on that link. So 106K fewer Ds, 39K fewer Rs and +35 indies or others over 3 1/2 years. About a 3% move to the R side. I cannot find 2008 stats for NM. I think this covers about every state that could be competitive. Maybe Maine could be done?