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RRH October House Ratings

by: shamlet

Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 20:00:00 PM EDT

Changes to the RRH House Ratings since mid-September, 10 in the GOP's favor:

AZ-1 Lean D to Tossup
AZ-2 Likely D to Lean D
AZ-9 Lean D to Tossup
CO-7 Likely D to Lean D
IL-8 Likely D to Lean D
IN-2 Lean R to Likely R
MI-3 Likely R to Safe R
MI-11 Lean R to Likely R
NC-8 Lean R to Likely R
NY-19 Lean R to Likely R

And 12 in the Dems' favor:

CA-7 Lean R to Tossup
CA-10 Likely R to Lean R
CA-36 Safe R to Likely R
FL-2 Likely R to Lean R
FL-18 Lean R to Tossup
FL-26 Tossup to Lean D
ME-2 Likely D to Safe D
NC-7 Tossup to Lean D
NM-1 Likely D to Safe D
NY-27 Lean R to Tossup
OH-6 Likely R to Lean R
RI-1 Tossup to Lean D

One race changes in an I's favor:
CA-33 Safe D to Likely D

This forecast means RRH is projecting, as of today, a house change of between a 12-seat gain for Republicans and a 8-seat gain for Democrats.

Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R
CA-3 (Garamendi)
CA-16 (Costa)
CA-33 (Waxman)*
FL-9 (new)
IA-1 (Braley)
IA-2 (Loebsack)
NY-17 (Lowey)
WA-1 (Open)
WA-6 (Open)
WA-10 (new)
WV-3 (Rahall) AZ-2 (Barber)
CA-9 (McNerney)
CA-24 (Capps)
CA-47 (Open)
CO-7 (Perlmutter)
FL-22 (new)
FL-26 (Rivera)
IL-8 (Walsh)
KY-6 (Chandler)
MD-6 (Bartlett)
MN-8 (Cravaack)
NC-7 (McIntyre)
NV-4 (new)
NY-1 (Bishop)
NY-21 (Owens)
NY-25 (Slaughter)
RI-1 (Cicilline) AZ-1 (new)
AZ-9 (Open)
CA-7 (Lungren)
CA-26 (Open)
CA-41 (Open)
CA-52 (Bilbray)
CT-5 (Open)
FL-18 (West)
IL-10 (Dold)
IL-11 (Biggert)
IL-12 (Open)
IL-17 (Schilling)
MI-1 (Benishek)
MA-6 (Tierney)
NH-1 (Guinta)
NH-2 (Bass)
NY-24 (Buerkle)
NY-27 (Hochul)
PA-12 (Critz)
UT-4 (Matheson) CA-10 (Denham)
CO-3 (Tipton)
CO-6 (Coffman)
FL-2 (Southerland)
GA-12 (Barrow)
IA-3 (Latham/Boswell)
IA-4 (King)
IL-13 (Open)
MT-AL (Open)
ND-AL (Open)
NV-3 (Heck)
NY-11 (Grimm)
NY-18 (Hayworth)
OH-6 (Johnson)
OH-16 (Renacci/Sutton)
TX-23 (Canseco)
WI-7 (Duffy) CA-21 (Open)
CA-36 (Bono Mack)
FL-10 (Webster)
FL-16 (Buchanan)
IN-2 (Open)
IN-8 (Bucshon)
MI-11 (Open)
NC-8 (Kissell)
NC-11 (Open)
NJ-3 (Runyan)
NY-19 (Gibson)
OK-2 (Open)
PA-8 (Fitzpatrick)
TX-14 (Open)
VA-2 (Rigell)
WI-8 (Ribble)

*second place candidate is an Independent

Safe R pickups : AR-4 (Open), NC-13 (Open)

Safe R new seats: GA-9, SC-7, TX-25, TX-36, UT-2
Safe D new seats: TX-33, TX-34

For the first time, we now offer a rough estimate of Same Party Matchups:
CA-8 Lean Cook (R, over Imus)
CA-15 Lean Swalwell (D, over Stark-i)
CA-30 Lean Sherman (D-i, over Berman-i)
CA-31 Tossup (R, Miller-i, vs. Dutton)
CA-35 Lean Baca (D-i, over Negrete-McLeod)
CA-40 Safe Roybal-Allard (D-i)
CA-43 Safe Waters (D-i)
CA-44 Safe Hahn (D-i, over Richardson-i)
LA-3 Lean Boustany (R-i, over Landry-i)

shamlet :: RRH October House Ratings

For Reference:

Eliminated Seats
Democrats Republicans
Olver (MA)
Clarke (MI)
Carnahan (MO)
Rothman (NJ)
Hinchey (NY)
Sutton (OH)
Altmire (PA) Latham (IA)
Manzullo (IL)
Landry (LA)
Turner (NY)
Austria (OH)

Here is the system to assign predecessor/successor seats:
1. All incumbents running in the general election against no other incumbent are running in "their" seat.
2. If more than one member is running in the general in a seat, the seat "belongs" to whomever has the territory advantage.
3. If an incumbent has retired or lost in the primary and there is an open seat covering a substantial portion of the same territory, those two match up.
4. If there is an open seat covering territory with no retiring incumbent, or if there is a retiring or primary-defeated incumbent with no open seat covering his/her territory, search for the nearest seat "mate".
5. If no such incumbent or open seat mate can be found the seat is either new or eliminated.

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RRH October House Ratings | 9 comments

CA-33; Why the move to likely D? What happened?

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3

by: aas34 @ Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 00:07:58 AM UTC

by: you @ soon

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Lotsa little things

Bloomfield is still dumping cash, Waxman seems to be taking him seriously, and they're both airing ads (no easy feat in LA). It's very marginal, but enough that it just barely slips over the line into on-the-radar territory.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

by: shamlet @ Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 00:12:16 AM UTC

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by: you @ soon

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Breaking down the tossups

Those last 20 really are tough to call. I readily admit that what follows are merely my own guesses based on general knowledge, plus reports I've seen online and in the media.

I think there are 6 Republicans, in particular, who have a slight-but-still-discernible edge: Dold in Illinois, Guinta in NH, Love in Utah, Lungren in CA-07, West in Florida, and Tisei in Massachusetts.

I think Democrats have a similar edge in 4 districts: the two in Arizona; CA-41 in San Bernardino, and NY-24 in Syracuse/Upstate. Buerkle could be one of our stars if she had a safer seat, but alas I'm afraid she's going to come up just a few votes short of victory.

The remaining 10 I think of as true 50/50 shots. Just no way to tell in advance.

Age 42. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.

by: On the Right @ Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 01:32:17 AM UTC

by: you @ soon

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I agree with all but three

I'm feeling pretty confident about the two AZ districts, especially now that it seems like Romney will at least match 2004/2008 numbers there. And as much as I want Dold to win, my gut tells me he loses by the a few points because Obama probably gets 57% or so.

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3

by: aas34 @ Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 01:41:13 AM UTC

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by: you @ soon

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I'm least confident in Dold

Of the 6 Republicans I mentioned, I would definitely be the least-surprised by his loss. I know it's a terrible district for the GOP. But I think he has established himself as a strong, independent leader, and I think his opponent is (justly) seen as being shady. As to the Obama-coat tails, I think he got 63% here in 08. So a 57% tally as you suggest is probably close to the mark. I think, though, that Romney/Ryan really is the best possible ticket the GOP could've come up with for suburban Chicagoland districts. So if there are any areas in Illinois where Obama might underperform, I think this is one of them.

Age 42. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.

by: On the Right @ Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 01:55:07 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

NH-01

I've been trying to convince myself for a while that Guinta will be fine, but the polls keep coming out in CSP's favor. I think that the race may lean slightly towards her, not slightly towards him.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

by: Son_of_the_South @ Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 20:53:39 PM UTC

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NH US House races

I agree that Guinta's more likely to lose than win reelection... I actually think Bass is a nominal favorite. It'll sure be strange to see NH-01 in the Democratic column and NH-02 in the GOP column next Congress (though I think CSP is pretty much a lame duck from day one, so long as we put up a good nominee for NH-01 next time).

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.

by: RockRibbedR @ Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 20:56:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thoughts

Frankly, I don't see how Waxman could be in real trouble. Bloomfield has money to burn and Waxman is countering with all the money he's been sitting on for years. The district has 44% Democratic registration and there really aren't soft Democrats in there. I don't see Bloomfield being able to pick off many Democrats. So Waxman only needs around 33% of independents to win.

I'm surprised you still have IA-4, ND-AL, and NY-11 in the lean category. These districts are too Republican for Democrats to have a real shot. The Democrats can talk about winning CA-10 all they want but their registration edge is gone here.

Tarkanian should be favored in NV-4. It shouldn't still be in the Lean Democratic category.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

by: Left Coast Libertarian @ Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 03:32:53 AM UTC

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NC-7

Why is this seat listed as Lean Democratic? I would list in the Tossup category. I think it's the seat with the most R favoring PVI in the Lean Democratic category. McIntyre has played to his district by refusing to endorse Obama and supporting the Marriage Amendment among other things but I think redistricting puts him at serious risk of losing to Rouzer. I think Rouzer has the right background to win and that combined with Romney winning this district by a wide margin will make it hard for McIntyre to win.

by: ncgop @ Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 03:50:13 AM UTC

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RRH October House Ratings | 9 comments

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Elections have consequences -- from the race for President to the race for one seat on a city council. The political economist Max Weber wrote that the state possesses a monopoly on the legitimate use of force. But in the United States, the state is divided into myriad federal, state, and local entities. And the elections to fill those entities are the products of the fascinating interactions between campaigns, party affiliations, voter turnout, and the media spotlight. Red Racing Horses analyzes those elections -- from a Republican-leaning perspective -- to keep a close eye on the process of electing officials, and to offer our perspective on the election-related issues of the day. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog.

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