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Predictions Open Thread

by: shamlet

Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 09:20:00 AM EST

This thread is in the diaries so it will stay visible for longer... just an open thread to make and discuss whatever predictions you have.
shamlet :: Predictions Open Thread
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Am I a Wuss...
...for wanting to wait until I see the Monday polling numbers?


Many races won't have polls coming out on Monday.
A lot of House races and some Senate races can be called today. Of course, you could just wait until tomorrow to post your predictions.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
My Predictions
EC: Obama 271, Rommney 267 (picks up NC, VA, FL, NH, IA, CO, IN)
PV: Obama 50.2% Romney 48.9%

No net change. Dems pick up MA, IN, and ME with King. GOP picks up NE, MT, and ND.

Dems net 1 seat.

Governor races:
GOP nets 2 (picks up MT and NC)

27, Republican, WA-03 (represented by wonderful Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler), WA Leg Dist 19

All that money spent on Congressional Elections ...
give, or take a seat, it'll be a wash, worth a couple hundred millions, if not billions (with outside groups) of dollars ... smh

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker

[ Parent ]
Yeah I agree
All this year I've been expecting the Dems to probably gain 10-12 seats. But yesterday I went though every house race and tallied them all up on how I expected them to go, and it only came to D+1. A pretty good result for the largest GOP majority in a very long time.

27, Republican, WA-03 (represented by wonderful Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler), WA Leg Dist 19

[ Parent ]
You're Not Even Giving Us WI-SEN?
You must think Obama is going to win WI by 3% or more...  

[ Parent ]
I think WI will be the closest Sente race
even more so than MT. So I think it certainly is winnable. But I think being a Republican in WA makes me expect to lose alot of close races lol.

27, Republican, WA-03 (represented by wonderful Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler), WA Leg Dist 19

[ Parent ]
House Predictions
I was considering making a diary for this, but I think I'll just post a condensed version here:

Any race not list here I assumed was not ever truly contested. That gives the GOP a base of 217 seats and the Democrats a base of 169 seats.  Of the contested races, I predict...

Democrat Winners:
Sinema (AZ-9), McNerney (CA-9), Takano (CA-41), Esty (CT-5), Perlmutter (CO-7), Barrow (GA-12), Garcia (FL-26), Duckworth (IL-8), Foster (IL-11), Gill (IL-13), McDowell (MI-1), Nolan (MN-8), McIntyre (NC-7), Bishop (NY-1), Owens (NY-21), Maffei (NY-24), Hochul (NY-27), Slaughter (NY-25), Wilson (OH-6), Cicilline (R1-1) and DelBene (WA-1).

Republican Winners:
Paton (AZ-1), Lungren (CA-7), Denham (CA-10), Strickland (CA-26), Bono Mack (CA-36), Bilbray (CA-52), Tipton (CO-3), Coffman (CO-6), Southerland (FL-2), West (FL-18), Dold (IL-10), Plummer (IL-12), Schilling (IL-17), Latham (IA-3), Tisei (MA-6), Bentivolio (MI-11), Heck (NV-3), Tarkanian (NV-4),Guinta (NH-1), Bass (NH-2), Barr (KY-6), Hayworth (NY-18), Gibson (NY-19), Renacci (OH-16), Rothfus (PA-12), DesJarlais (TN-4), Canseco (TX-23), and Love (UT-4).

So my prediction for the 113th Congress is:
245 Republicans
190 Democrats


Saint Paul (MN-4)  

A GOP net gain
would be pretty amazing, that's for sure. They'll need a Romney victory to pull that off, I'd say,.

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker

[ Parent ]
I don't think so
I could easily see the GOP pickup 1-5 seats in the House, 2 or 3 seats in the Senate, and still have Romney lose.

Saint Paul (MN-4)  

[ Parent ]
President: Obama 290 Mitt 244
Obama wins CO, WI, IA, NH, OH, PA, NV
Mitt wins VA, NC, FL

Senate: Dems+Angus and Bernie 53 GOP 47
Dems win VA, WI, IN, OH, FL, PA, MA, MO
GOP wins ND, NV, MT, AZ, NB

House: GOP 237 Dems 198; D=5.
Individual race (of Cook Toss ups)
GOP wins:Rothfus (PA-12), Love (UT-4),Bono Mack (CA-36),West (FL-18), Dold (IL-10), Davis(IL-13), Guinta (NH-1),Hayworth (NY-18), Gibson (NY-19), Johnson (OH-6), Canseco (TX-23)

Dems win: McNerney (CA-9, Esty (CT-5), Barrow (GA-5), Enyart (IL-12), Chandler (KY-6), Horsford (NV-4)(yes, I know Tark has a poll lead), McIntyre (NC-7), Cicilline (RI-1) Kirkpatrick (AZ-1), Bera (CA-7), Hernandez (CA-10), Brownley (CA-26), Peters (CA-52), Miklosi (CO-6), Bustos (IL-17), McDowell (MI-1), Nolan (MN-8)

GOP is currently up 18 to 10 in these toss ups. I predict Dems gain 7 in the "toss ups" and it goes to 17 to 11 D. This, however, is predicated on Dems getting a near sweep in California (Bono Mack hangs on). If that doesn't happen it could be more like D+2 overall.

The only Cook "Lean" or "Likely" race I have going the other way is TN-4: Stewart beats DesJarlais in the upset of the night.

Mainstream Dem.  

Obama 290, Romney 248.

It seems 4 electoral votes went missing!

Mainstream Dem.  

[ Parent ]
Popular vote prediction: O 49.4 R49.2
And: We don't know the popular vote winner for a week.

Mainstream Dem.  

[ Parent ]
We agree on 46 states!

I agree that the last 4 -- Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, New Hampshire -- that we disagree on could legitimately go either way. I also think Wisconsin and Virginia could, too.

Age 44. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.

[ Parent ]
On the Right predictions
Electoral College totals: Romney 285, Obama 253

Select state totals:
Ohio -- Romney by less than 1.0%
Wisconsin -- Obama by less than 1.0%
Iowa -- Romney by less than 1.0%
New Hampshire -- Romney by less than 1.0%
Colorado -- Romney by 1.0-1.5%
Pennsylvania -- Obama by 1.0-1.5%
Virginia -- Romney by 1.5-2.0%
Michigan -- Obama by 2.0-2.5%
Florida -- Romney by 4.5-5.5%
North Carolina -- Romney by 6.0-7.0%

Nationwide popular vote:
Romney -- 49.8-50.1%
Obama -- 48.5-48.8%
Other candidates -- 1.4% (same as 2008; and about half of these for Gary Johnson)
Romney's margin -- 1.0-1.6% (2x-3x the margin of Gore against Bush in 2000)

The "exit polls" will apparently exclude several states; I forget exactly which ones. But I predict that as the data becomes available over the next few months, the consensus will be that the people who voted in the 2012 election were (nationwide) about 37% D, 34% R, and 29% Independent/Other, or stating no partisan preference.

I haven't paid nearly as much attention to the Congressional races, but just on an intuitive level, I think the Senate will be 50R and 50D -- same as 2001 before the Jeffords switch. House will be 246R and 189D.

Age 44. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.

Senate Predictions:
Arizona: Flake
Connecticut: Murray
Florida: Nelson
Hawaii: Hirono
Indiana: Mourdock
Maine: King
Massachusetts: Warren
Missouri: McCaskill
Montana: Tester
Nebraska: Fischer
Nevada: Heller
New Mexico: Heinrich
North Dakota: Berg
Ohio: Brown
Pennsylvania: Smith
Virginia: Allen
Wisconsin: Thompson

The 113th Congress would thus consist of:
50 Republicans
48 Democrats
2 (Liberal) Independents


Saint Paul (MN-4)  

US House predictions
Here's my thorough predictions diary where I explain my rationale for rating each competitive race the way I do. I'm very, very tempted to give KY-06 to Andy Barr, but, for now, I'm going with an R+4 result.

From IL-09, familial roots in MI-14, college in PA-02/07, and working for the summer in DC-AL.

Andy Hill for WA-Governor!

R+4 = 246 in the House?
I'm not sure what, exactly, the current break is.

Age 44. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.

[ Parent ]
The House
I give MI-11 to Rs and NJ-10 and WA-01 to Democrats. That makes the current composition 242-193.

From IL-09, familial roots in MI-14, college in PA-02/07, and working for the summer in DC-AL.

Andy Hill for WA-Governor!

[ Parent ]
Also KY-04 to Republicans and CA-18 to Democrats

[ Parent ]
Final Prediction
51-48 Obama, shedding NE-02, IN, and NC.


Competitive races only, so as not to take up so much space. (Parentheses are what I currently have it ranked as)

AZ-Sen - R (Tossup)
CT-Sen - D (Lean D)
FL-Sen - D (Likely D)
HI-Sen - D (Likely D)
IN-Sen - D (Lean D)
MA-Sen - D (Lean D)
ME-Sen - I (Likely I)
MO-Sen - D (Likely D)
ND-Sen - D (Tossup)
NE-Sen - R (Lean R)
NV-Sen - D (Tossup)
OH-Sen - D (Lean D)
PA-Sen - D (Lean D)
VA-Sen - D (Tossup)
WI-Sen - D (Tossup)


A note on ratings:
Safe (not listed) - >99.9% chance of victory for one party
Likely - 75-99.9% chance of victory for one party
Lean - 55-75% chance of victory for one party
Tossup - 45-55% chance of victory for one party

AR-01 - R (Likely R)
AR-04 - R (Likely R)

AZ-01 - D (Likely D)
AZ-02 - D (Likely D)
AZ-09 - D (Likely D)

CA-03 - D (Likely D)
CA-07 - R (Tossup)
CA-09 - D (Lean D)
CA-10 - R (Lean R)
CA-21 - R (Likely R)
CA-24 - D (Likely D)
CA-26 - D (Tossup)
CA-36 - D (Lean D)
CA-41 - D (Tossup)
CA-47 - D (Lean D)
CA-52 - D (Lean D)

CO-03 - D (Tossup)
CO-04 - R (Likely R)
CO-06 - R (Lean R)
CO-07 - D (Likely D)

CT-05 - R (Tossup)

FL-02 - R (Lean R)
FL-10 - R (Tossup)
FL-13 - R (Likely R)
FL-18 - D (Tossup)
FL-22 - D (Lean D)
FL-26 - D (Likely D)

GA-12 - D (Tossup)

IA-01 - D (Likely D)
IA-02 - D (Likely D)
IA-03 - R (Tossup)
IA-04 - R (Lean R)

IL-08 - D (Likely D)
IL-10 - D (Tossup)
IL-11 - D (Lean D)
IL-12 - D (Lean D)
IL-13 - D (Tossup)
IL-17 - D (Tossup)

IN-02 - R (Lean R)
IN-05 - R (Lean R)
IN-06 - R (Likely R)
IN-08 - R (Lean R)
IN-09 - R (Likely R)

KY-06 - D (Likely D)

MA-06 - R (Lean R)

MD-06 - D (Likely D)

ME-02 - D (Likely D)

MI-01 - D (Lean D)
MI-03 - R (Lean R)
MI-11 - R (Lean R)

MN-02 - R (Likely R)
MN-06 - R (Lean R)
MN-08 - D (Lean D)

MT-AL - R (Likely R)

NC-06 - R (Likely R)
NC-07 - D (Likely D)
NC-08 - R (Lean R)
NC-09 - R (Likely R)
NC-10 - R (Likely R)
NC-11 - R (Lean R)

ND-AL - R (Likely R)

NE-02 - R (Lean R)

NH-01 - R (Tossup)
NH-02 - D (Tossup)

NJ-03 - R (Lean R)
NJ-07 - R (Likely R)

NV-03 - R (Tossup)
NV-04 - D (Tossup)

NY-01 - D (Likely D)
NY-11 - R (Lean R)
NY-17 - D (Likely D)
NY-18 - R (Likely R)
NY-19 - R (Lean R)
NY-21 - D (Likely D)
NY-23 - R (Lean R)
NY-24 - D (Lean D)
NY-25 - D (Likely D)
NY-27 - D (Tossup)

OH-06 - D (Tossup)
OH-10 - R (Likely R)
OH-16 - D (Tossup)

OK-02 - R (Lean R)

PA-03 - R (Likely R)
PA-06 - R (Likely R)
PA-08 - R (Likely R)
PA-12 - R (Tossup)
PA-18 - R (Lean R)

RI-01 - D (Lean D)

SD-AL - R (Lean R)

TN-04 - D (Lean D)

TX-14 - D (Tossup)
TX-23 - D (Tossup)

UT-02 - R (Likely R)
UT-04 - R (Tossup)

VA-02 - R (Lean R)
VA-05 - R (Likely R)

WA-01 - D (Lean D)

WI-01 - R (Likely R)
WI-07 - R (Lean R)
WI-08 - R (Likely R)

WV-03 - D (Likely D)

The closest races are CO-03, NV-03, OH-06, PA-12, and TX-14.

Democrat & Socialist. Socially liberal but culturally conservative. I'm ready for Hillary!

TX-14, wtf?
Um...why oh why do you have Lampson winning a majority suburban seat that is likely to be 58% Romney?

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
Why is UT-02 even remotely competitive when a public poll had Chris Stewart up 30 points? Your surname has to be Matheson for you to even be competitive in any Congressional or Statewide election these days.

From IL-09, familial roots in MI-14, college in PA-02/07, and working for the summer in DC-AL.

Andy Hill for WA-Governor!

[ Parent ]
Our candidate
Our candidate is a state rep. who held down a R+17 house seat for two cycles before losing in 2010. That keeps Stewart just under a 99.9% chance of winning. Almost above that threshold, but not quite.

Democrat & Socialist. Socially liberal but culturally conservative. I'm ready for Hillary!

[ Parent ]
what could keep Stewart from winning is if enough Republicans get ticked off as to the slimy shenanigans he pulled at the convention. This is one of the ~10 districts where I would blank my ballot rather than voting for the Republican.*

That said, I can't believe more than 1% of this district cares about process the way I do. Stewart may marginally underperform but there is absolutely no way IMO that he loses.

*Just in case you were wondering, the others: AK-AL, AZ-3, CA-42, FL-26, KY-5, MI-11, NC-3, OH-13, TN-4.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
I meant that we had a candidate who could conceivably take advantage of that context, I'm sure that RRR is already acutely aware of what happened at the convention.

Democrat & Socialist. Socially liberal but culturally conservative. I'm ready for Hillary!

[ Parent ]
Good call on KY-05
Hal Rogers is a terrible incumbent who is often left off lists of terrible incumbents (which usually start with Rivera and Young). I tend to dislike it when national groups get involved in GOP primaries, but I would support one again Rogers.

[ Parent ]
My Toxic Trio
Don Young, Ken Calvert, and Hal Rogers. Three people that have no right to be in Congress that have sat unprimaried for way, way too long.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Don Young
In fairness to Alaska Republicans, they did try to primary him a few years ago.  

Unfortunately I don't think Rogers is likely to face that fate.  At least Kentucky Republicans will soon have some anti-porkers representing them as well.  

[ Parent ]
He should be getting primary challenges every year
ditto with Calvert. There is just no good reason for Republicans to want to keep those two. Rogers I can very marginally sympathize with given the rural poverty in the east, but we should still have someone a whole lot better in that seat.

Agree on KY slowly getting better representation. Paul is a big improvement over Bunning and Massie is better than people who preceeded him. If Barr can pull it off it will be another major step forward.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
I'm not familiar with Hal Rogers
Why is he terrible?

[ Parent ]
He's probably the second most egregious porker
left in the caucus (after Don Young). He's essentially a mini-Murtha in terms of directing lots of funding to places where they shouldn't be going, and building lots of "monuments to me" across the district.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Also, forgot NJ-4
seeing as I agree with Smith on almost nothing.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Smith at least serves a purpose, unlike the others
The majority of the party is pro-life so Smith is someone who can appeal to that base. The porkers just undercut every core message the GOP has to offer.

[ Parent ]
That's more a personal preference thing, so I don't quite put him in the same breath as the other 10 creeps, slimeballs, porkers, and mixed nuts.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Obama 51-48?
I know the polls have been scattered all around, and "anything can happen." But I will just say, this is the seventh US presidential election that I have paid very close attention to, and if Obama wins 51% of the nationwide popular vote, it would shock me more than any of the other 6 previous results. I have turned this thing over in my head a thousand times over the past few months, and I just do not see any viable way for him to get beyond 49.1-49.2. I think his share of the popular vote maxes out at that point, and I honestly expect him to get about half-a-point less than that.

I'm not asking this to put you on the spot, but out of genuine curiosity: didn't you say (back in the spring/summer) that Obama was headed for a 53-46-type of win? Maybe it was Gladstone not you who said that. And anyway that is not to imply that you or me or any of us shouldn't be allowed to adjust our expectations as the campaign unfolds.

Age 44. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.

[ Parent ]
It Was RogueMapper
I made a mental note of his 53O-46R prediction at the time (actually, I think it was 53-45).  

[ Parent ]
Was my prediction. It's what surely would've been if the Denver debate had unfolded as nearly everyone expected. ;)

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
And since you probably don't believe that, check out where the 2012 polling was on the eve of the Denver debate versus the same point in 2008.

It surprises me a bit that no one seems to recall the main buzz leading up to that Denver debate was whether the House was now in play, and even people on here were ridiculing Chris Christie for predicting it'd reset the election.

But, hey, what-might-have-been is a debate we can never settle.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
At least, I don't think so. I've believed since at least March that Obama would win by 3-4 points. I did once say that there's a better chance of Obama winning by more than his 2008 margin than of Romney winning.

Which, if we could endlessly replay the race from early summer, I still think would hold true.

Democrat & Socialist. Socially liberal but culturally conservative. I'm ready for Hillary!

[ Parent ]
I think I said five at one point
Which looks to have been wrong.

My reason for doing so was that I felt people were greatly overestimating Romney as a candidate, and the sort of campaign he was going to run. He was a gaffe prone candidate with a very parochial staff. And I feel vindicated on this side.

Where I think I failed more was on the Obama side. I expected Obama to run a much better campaign than he did. I think Obama is lazy, I think he dislikes his job, but I never expected to make clear to everyone in the countryat the Denver debate exactly how much he hates it, and how much of a favor he thinks he is doing for everyone by deigning to serve as their President.

As I will put below though, I think Obama is going to have a larger margin, 2% or greater, mainly because I think GOP morale is in free-fall. While I think the moving parts are similar to 2004, Democratic morale did not crash until after most polls had closed.  

29 London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Recovering Academic putting skills to work in Commodities Trading and Analytics

[ Parent ]
It is?

[ Parent ]
This site
But, not just here. Everyone in DC Republican circles is talking about jobs, and not with Romney.  

29 London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Recovering Academic putting skills to work in Commodities Trading and Analytics

[ Parent ]
Also the Politico Frontpage
The entire tone of the leaks for the past 36 hours look like premortems. Christie, discussion about the pre-debate campaign, its all score settling.

The only people pushing Romney are those who write for an activist rather than an insider audience. Even Rove is hedging.

I am not saying Romney clearly has lost. I am saying Republican insiders of the sort who would be staffing his administration appear to have decided he will.

29 London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Recovering Academic putting skills to work in Commodities Trading and Analytics

[ Parent ]
This election might have been settled in 2009
Republicans should have blocked Obama from bailing out GM.  Romney likely would be ahead in Ohio had it not been for that.  

[ Parent ]
I guess they are basing this on those PPP Ohio and Virginia polls
Because those are the only ones that say this is over.  

[ Parent ]
That would require him to get pretty much every undecided voter, which simply isnt happening.  

[ Parent ]
National: Obama 51-48
NC: 52-47 Romney
FL 50.5-49% Romney
CO: 50-49 Obama
VA: 50-49 Romney
OH: 51-48 Obama
IN: 54-45 Romney
MO: 54-45 Romney
IA: 51-48 Obama
NH: 50-49 Obama
PA: 51.5-47.5 Obama
NV 50-46 Obama
WI 52-47 Obama
MI: 52.5-46.5 Obama
MN: 52-47% Obama  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!

You're Picking CO Over VA...
...for Obama?! At this point, it really seems like that should be flipped (unless you think CO Indies are going to break heavily for Obama...).  

[ Parent ]
Extrapolate 2008 vs. 2012
You get Obama winning. He has a big cushion after winning by 9.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!

[ Parent ]
That's what I have too.
In terms of states.

Mainstream Dem.  

[ Parent ]
Look at the actual early votes
Republicans have a 38%-35% edge and Obama will at best win independents by a couple points there.  In 2008, it was Democrats who had the early vote lead there and Obama had a huge lead among independents.  

[ Parent ]
I have it Obama 303 Romney 235 with the only states flipping from 2008- IN, NC, FLA. Colorado and Virginia could go either way but I push them both to Obama. In the Senate I have no change, D's pick up ME, MA, and IN R's NE, ND, and MT. MT could go either way, I push it R. WIS is the next closest, Tilt D, then VA, also Tilt D. In the House, i have a net gain of 0-3 seats for the Democrats.


SCRep's predictions
Awfully gloomy outlook, there.

In regards to the Obama/Romney thing, 303-235 really is Obama's best-case scenario. With one arguable exception (Florida), you're basically figuring that every swing state will go for O.

Age 44. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.

[ Parent ]
my Missouri predictions
President: Romney carries the state by double digits.

Governor: Nixon narrowly re-elected

Senate race: margin to come within the automatic recount margin and won't be known for a week or two.

Other state wide offices: Democrats narrowly win Attorney General, but Republicans take the rest

Judges: All judges retained

Congressional: Democrats retain #1 & #5; Republicans retain the rest (#3 considered a renumbered #9 for this purpose)

State Senate: Net loss of one state senate seat. (From #7 being transferred out of a Republican area of St Louis County and into a Democratic area near KC)

State House: Net gain of low single digit state house seats, gaining Super majority of the House.

Prop A (Return local control of St Louis City Police Department which has been under state control since 1861) : Passes

Prop B (Tobacco Tax Hike) : Fails

Prop C (Allow governor to appoint a majority of the commission that chooses the list of judges the governor gets to pick from) : Fails

43 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO Pattonville School District, Maryland Heights Fire District (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

By the way
YouGov has McCaskill 52-42.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!

[ Parent ]
YouGov is an outlier
most recent PPP and WAA have 4 point margins

Mason Dix 2 points with large undecided

I think Akin is going to over-perform the pollsters though.

43 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO Pattonville School District, Maryland Heights Fire District (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
my national predictions
Every state where RRH has Romney winning, I also have him winning.

In addition I have him carrying Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Ohio for a win. (Either WI or OH on top of what RRH has puts Romney over the top)
I wouldn't be particularly surprised if he also narrowly carried either of PA or MI or the more Republican of the two Maine districts.

Senate races: For all races RRH has the Republican winning, I also have the Republican winning.
In addition, (contrary to some polls) I have the Republican winning in Virginia and Indiana, and Missouri coming within our automatic recount margin for an undecided race for a week or two. That would result in either a 50 50 tie or 51R 49D depending on how Missouri's recount goes, either way with Republicans in control thanks to Ryan's tie breaker vote. (I'm placing King in the D column)

Governor: I'm in complete agreement with RRH.

House: I'm in agreement with the net margin (R+3; but not the individual races; but for every one I have the R winning that RRH does not, I have one with the D winning that the  RRH does not.)

43 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO Pattonville School District, Maryland Heights Fire District (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
gonna go out on a quirk.
Romney 275, Obama 263

Obama wins the PV. Ohio enters recount territory.  

28, R, PA-07.

Obama wins popular vote 51-48
Mitt wins McCain states plus NE-2, IN and NC.
Obama wins 332-206 in the EC.
Dems pick up a senate seat, losing NE and ND but winning IN, MA and ME.
GOP picks up 5 house seats.

That's Extremely Gloomy...
...and, besides - if Obama wins 51-48, the GOP won't be picking up House seats (they'll be lucky to keep loses under 10, in that scenario).  

[ Parent ]
Obama to win Florida?
That's a mighty powerful surge there for the Dems in the closing days...

Age 44. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.

[ Parent ]
I am a pessimist by nature. If I let myself think Romney had a chance and then he lost I would be very depressed. If I just say he's going to lose big then a close loss won't be quite as depressing.  

[ Parent ]
If Obama is winning the popular vote by that much
Republicans will be lucky to keep House losses under 10.  

[ Parent ]
I think people are going to vote for status quo. I think the independent voters like having split power because nothing too radical can happen. I think the GOP did itself a lot of favors with redistricting.

[ Parent ]
I dont think so
People are pretty angry about the economy.  

[ Parent ]
I don't
I think there's substantial evidence that people are buying Obama's meme that the economy is back on track.  

[ Parent ]
I built a model to predict the House back in January.
For a school project.

At the time, we didn't know what the economy would be like in September (what I use in the model). My model said the House would be between GOP +8 and Dems +6. Looks like it was pretty accurate :)

Mainstream Dem.  

285-253 Romney
As I said the other day - I believe Michael Barone over the polls (educated guesses) although I don't go as far as he does. Barone understands political dynamics and has followed actual voting results which are IMO a better window than polls.

Ohio and NH comes home in a nailbiter.
I have to see it to believe it in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and MI. Could happen. I wouldn't be shocked, but I'll have to see it to believe it.

But But But But - There's a shift....we're gonna lose...the sky if falling....Pew and NBC and Marist say this (so what, they're leftist). Gallup is a tie.

Shut the hell up with the doom and gloom.

1. We don't know if there's a shift.
2. One point doesn't mean much. Margin of error.
3. Obama's under 50%
4. 1/3 of the vote is probably in with most states between early, absentee, and other things. Keep in mind McCain won election day in some states like Iowa as well.

If you don't like the polls, do something about it. Everyone here on our side should be doing something Tuesday. Poll watching, poll challenging, GOTV, something.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

Shut the hell up with the doom and gloom.

Baker '14
R, MA-3

[ Parent ]
"Gallup Is Tied"?
Where are you seeing that?

If that is indeed the final Gallup result, that would actually be alarming, and would I think put Obama's odds of winning as a near lock...  

[ Parent ]
I think he means
USA/Gallup swing state poll at 48-48, which polled through Wednesday

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!

[ Parent ]
Sorry. Swing state poll
Rambled a bit after scanning some posts, One particular poster has been getting under my nerves a bit.

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

[ Parent ]
What is going on?
2008 Predictions:
Michael Barone- Obama 353/McCain 185
Karl Rove- Obama 338/McCain 200
George Will- Obama 378/McCain 160
Actual- Obama 365/McCain 173

2012 Predictions:
Michael Barone- Romney 315/Obama 223
Karl Rove- Romney 279/Obama 259
George Will- Romney 321/Obama 217

Baker '14
R, MA-3

In re: Michael Barone
In 25 of reading about American politics and current events, I have found no one else who -- consistently, year after year -- knows more facts in greater detail, explains trends both small and large with greater clarity, akcnowledges the good-faith of opposing points-of-view with greater humility, and offers meaningful electoral predictions with greater accuracy than he does.

And really, no one else even comes close.

Age 44. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.

[ Parent ]
In 25 *Years* of reading... nt

Age 44. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.

[ Parent ]
Here we go
Obama wins popular vote 49.7%-49.5%

Romney:  272
Obama:  266

Obama gets VA, NV, PA, and WI
Romney gets NH, OH, IA, CO, FL, and NC

House:  237 GOP-198 DEM
Senate:  Dems 54, GOP 46
Republicans pick up MT, ND, NE
Democrats pick up MA, IN, ME, and NV(upset).  

[ Parent ]
Also, Alex Castellanos

25, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Jeb 2016. Visit me at

[ Parent ]
As of the OH SOS report on 11/2 this appeared to be true
GOP sources tell me that in Ohio, for example, Republicans have increased their early turnout by more than 100,000 from 2008 while Democrat turnout is down 150,000. That is a 250,000-vote swing in a state Obama only won by 260,000 votes at the apogee of his popularity. This pattern, I'm informed, holds in other swing states.

However, since 11/2, in Cuyahoga County the EV totals went from 236k to 283k (40k more mail ballots returned). I wouldn't be surprised at the end of EV in Ohio that the GOP increased by 150k, while the Democrats are down slightly or par with 2008.

Baker '14
R, MA-3

[ Parent ]
I think they are using ballots returned
So the operative numbers would have been 187K to 243K in Cuyathoga.

29 London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Recovering Academic putting skills to work in Commodities Trading and Analytics

[ Parent ]
I think I double counted the In Person Voting Numbers
Sorry about that!

Baker '14
R, MA-3

[ Parent ]
Isn't he the genius who declared that Clinton's speech at the DNC made the campaign was "over" and that Obama's re-election was in the bag?

Age 44. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.

[ Parent ]
It probably would have been over
Had Obama not bombed that first debate.  

[ Parent ]
Again with the "first debate"
I can hardly believe the almost supernatural impact people ascribe to that episode in Denver.

Throughout the 21-month period of time that the RCP polling-average has been tracking the Obama/Romney race, there has not been a single day (not one!) where Obama's % exceeded 49.5, and that very fleetingly after the DNC and back during the primaries when Romney was getting it from all sides with the other Republicans. For the most part, Obama has been polling between 47-48% all along, and there has never been (IMHO) any real reason to think he would've done much better than that -- 48.6, maybe 49.2 at the outside. Denver didn't cause that to happen, it simply signaled the point when the MSM began to notice it and talk about it.

Age 44. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.

[ Parent ]
My Predictions - President
NC - Romney wins 51-48%
CO - Romney wins 50-49%
FL - Romney wins 50-49%
IA - Obama wins 50-49%
VA - Obama wins 50-49%
WI - Obama wins 51-48%
OH - Obama wins 51-48%
NH - Obama wins 51-48%
NV - Obama wins 52-47%

Fringe States

IN - Romney wins 55-44%
AZ - Romney wins 54-45%
GA - Romney wins 54-45%
MT - Romney wins 54-45%
MO - Romney wins 54-45%
PA - Obama wins 51-48%
MI - Obama wins 52-47%
MN - Obama wins 53-46%
NM - Obama wins 54-45%
NE-02 - Romney wins 52-47%
ME-02 - Obama wins 54-45%

I might tweak here and there, but pretty confident right now in these.

34/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

My Predictions - Senate
AZ - Flake wins 51-47%
CT - Murphy wins 52-47%
FL - Nelson wins 54-45%
HI - Hirono wins 56-43%
IN - Donnelly wins 49-45-5%
ME - King wins 50-35-14%
MA - Warren wins 51-48%
MI - Stabenow wins 55-44%
MO - McCasskill wins 49-46-4%
MT - Tester wins 50-49%
NE - Fischer wins 53-46%
NV - Heller wins 50-49%
NM - Heinrich wins 53-46%
NY - Gillibrand wins 69-30% (Had to do home state!)
ND - Berg wins 50-49%
OH - Brown wins 53-46%
PA - Casey wins 51-48%
VA - Kaine wins 51-48%
WI - Thompson wins 50-49%

End result is 53-47 again.

34/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Son_of_the_South's House Predictions
Here are my takes on all of the competitive House races:

AZ-01: Paton (R) wins
AZ-02: Barber (D) wins
AZ-09: Parker (R) wins by a fraction of a point

CA-03: Garamendi (D) wins
CA-07: Lungren (R) wins by a few points
CA-08: Cook (R) beats Imus (R)
CA-09: McNerney (D) wins by about three points
CA-10: Denham (R) wins by at least four points, probably more
CA-16: Costa (D) wins
CA-21: Valadao (R) wins
CA-24: Capps (D) wins
CA-26: Strickland (R) wins by less than a point
CA-30: Berman (D) beats Sherman (D)
CA-31: Miller (R) beats Dutton (R)
CA-36: Bono Mack (R) wins
CA-47: Lowenthal (D) wins
CA-52: Bilbray wins

CO-06: Coffman (R) wins
CO-07: Perlmutter (D) wins

CT-05: Roraback (R) wins

FL-02: Sutherland (R) wins by about three points
FL-09: Grayson (D) wins by six or seven points
FL-18: West wins by about four
FL-26: Garcia (D) wins narrowly

GA-12: Anderson (R) wins by about a point

IA-01: Braley (D) wins easily
IA-02: Loebsack (D) wins easily
IA-03: Latham (R) wins

IL-08: Duckworth (D) wins
IL-10: Dold (R) wins by less than a point
IL-11: Foster (D) wins
IL-12: Enyart (D) wins
IL-13: Davis (R) wins narrowly
IL-17: Schilling (R) wins by one or two points

KY-06: Chandler (D) wins by a few points

LA-03: Boustany (R) and Landry (R) go to a runoff

MA-06: Tisei (R) wins

MD-06: Delaney (D) wins

MI-01: McDowell (D) wins narrowly
MI-03: Amash (R) wins
MI-11: Bentivolio (R) wins the new district and the old district

MN-01: Walz (D) wins
MN-02: Kline (R) wins
MN-06: Bachmann (R) wins
MN-07: Peterson (D) wins
MN-08: Nolan (D) wins

MT-AL: Daines (R) wins

NC-07: McIntyre (D) wins
NC-08: Hudson (R) wins
The GOP will pick up NC-11 and NC-13, but they aren't competitive

NH-01: Shea-Porter (D) wins narrowly
NH-02: Bass (R) wins

NJ-03: Runyan (R) wins

NV-03: Heck (R) wins comfortably
NV-04: Horsford (D) wins narrowly

NY-01: Bishop (D) wins
NY-18: Hayworth (R) wins
NY-19: Gibson (R) wins
NY-21: Owens (D) wins by a few points
NY-24: Buerkle (R) wins by two points
NY-25: Slaughter (D) wins
NY-27: Collins (R) wins by one or two points

OH-06: Johnson (R) wins
OH-16: Renacci (R) wins by about three points

OK-02: Mullin (R) wins by about seven points

PA-12: Critz (D) wins narrowly

TN-04: Desjarlais (R) wins by about four or five points

TX-14: Weber (R) wins
TX-23: Canseco (R) wins very narrowly

UT-02: Love (R) wins by seven or eight points

VA-02: Rigell (R) wins

WA-01: DelBene (D) wins
WA-06: Kilmer (D) wins comfortably
WA-10: Heck (D) wins comfortably

WI-07: Duffy (R) wins
WI-08: Ribble (R) wins

Did I forget any races?

22, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

You forgot RI-01.

From IL-09, familial roots in MI-14, college in PA-02/07, and working for the summer in DC-AL.

Andy Hill for WA-Governor!

[ Parent ]
Thank you. RI-01: Ciccilline (D) wins narrowly

22, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Right you are. CA-41: Takano (D) wins by a point or so

22, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
You forgot UT-04
Rather, you got the number (and margin of victory) for Matheson's seat wrong. I just don't see how the rather underwhelming candidate in Mia Love wins by more than 5 even as Romney gets over 70 in the district.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
Yes, I messed up the numbering because I was thinking of the seat as 'Matheson's seat,' and he currently represents UT-02. As to Love's margin of victory, I saw a public poll a day or two ago that had Love winning by 12, 52-40. I assumed that Matheson's popularity would allow him to perform well, so I gave him half of the undecideds.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Stop it
You could have politely told him that Love-Matheson was UT-04, instead of phrasing it that way and also trying to open up a Pandora's Box that has been closed for months (for good reason).

[ Parent ]
Popular Vote: R 49.3, O 49.0

PA - R 48, O 51
OH - R 49, O 49
VA - R 50, O 48
NC - R 52, O 47
FL - R 51, O 48
WI - R 48, O 51
MI - R 47, O 52
MN - R 47, O 52
IA - R 49, O 49
CO - R 49, O 48
NV - R 47, O 50
NM - R 45, O 51

Some of these are a tie because I honestly think they will be the closest states, and that I can't predict who will win them. Also, I'm not sure how much support Gary Johnson will get, but I assume it will be higher than any third party candidates in 2008....I accounted for this in the western states where he will attract a decent number of votes.

Who knows, I could be wrong about all of them.  

22, male, R, MA-3 (home), NC-4 (school)

Pretty much what Ive got
With the popular vote flipped around.  Im also giving Obama Virginia based on that final PPP poll, but Im even more convinced than I was early about their +3 Dem House effect.  

Again, someone's going to have a huge egg on their face Wednesday morning.  I have a hard time believing that a Florida's premium pollster since the 1970's(Mason-Dixon) is going to be very far off compared to a Dem pollster who has been around for just four years.  

[ Parent ]
GerGOP Prediction
Not that it matters, since I don't have even half of the knowledge that all people on this page seem to have, nevertheless, here are my two cents.

Presidential Race
> I'm sorry, but my guts and my head disagree.
Guts say 303-235 for Obama (Romney only flipping IN, NC and FL)
Head says 295-243 for Romney (Romney flipping IN, NC, FL, CO, OH, NH, WI, IA)

Senate Races
53-47 Majority for Dems
> GOP Pickups: NE, MT, ND
> Dem Pickups: IN, MA, ME

House Races
Democratic net gains within low single digits

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker

Let's play a fun game: When will we know?
Question above: When do you think will we know if Romney wins, or loses? A specific time you'd want to guess? Will it be an early call? A nail biter til afternoon next day?

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker

My guess:
3:18 am, when the networks call Ohio for Obama.

Mainstream Dem.  

[ Parent ]
12:55 a.m.
At that point, North Carolina, Florida, Virginia and New Hampshire, in that order have been called for Romney; Nevada and Michigan for Obama. Everything else too close too call. Ohio puts Romney over-the-top.

25, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Jeb 2016. Visit me at

[ Parent ]
Romney: FL, NC, CO, VA
Obama: OH, PA, NH, IA, WI, NV
I think VA will be the closest--it could just as easily go for Obama.

AZ: Flake
CT: Murphy
FL: Nelson
HI: Hirono
IN: Mourdock
ME: King
MA: Warren
MO: McCaskill
MT: Rehberg
NE: Fischer
NV: Heller
NM: Heinrich
ND: Berg
OH: Brown
PA: Casey
VA: Kaine
WI: Thompson

I'm hopeful that Mourdock can pull it out. Maybe Akin can too, but I'm as optimistic. VA will be close. R+2

R, PA-7 (college: DC-AL)

Merrimack Optimism
President- Romney 49.5-49%, Romney 275-263
GOP Adds IN, NC, FL, CO, VA and OH
DEM Adds

US Senate- GOP 50 (+3) DEM 50 (-3)

US House- GOP 246 (+4) DEM 189 (-4)
GOP Adds: AR4-Cotton, CA21-Valadao, CT5-Roraback, IN2-Walorski, MA6-Tisei, NC8-Hudson, NC11-Meadows, NC13-Holding, NY27-Collins, OK2-Mullin, UT4-Love
DEM Adds: AZ9-Sinema, CA26-Brownley, CA41-Takano, FL26-Garcia, IL8-Duckworth, IL11-Foster, IL13-Gill, MD6-Delaney, MN8-Nolan, TN4-Stewart

Member Battle: IA3-Latham, OH16-Renacci
New GOP: AZ1-Paton, GA9-Collins, NV4-Tarkanian, SC7-Rice, TX25-Williams, TX36-Stockman, UT2-Stewart
New DEM: FL9-Grayson, FL22-Frankel, TX33-Veasey, TX34-Vela, WA10-Heck

Mass Senate- DEM 35 (-1) GOP 5 (+1)
GOP Adds: Plymouth and Barnstable-Keyes

Mass House- DEM 124 (-3) GOP 36 (+3)
GOP Adds: 2nd Essex-Mirra (R-West Newbury), 2nd Franklin-Lee (R-Athol), 2nd Hampden-Angelides (R-Longmeadow), 8th Middlesex-Lamb (Holliston), 21st Middlesex-Zenkin (R-Burlington), 36th Middlesex-Richardson (R-Dracut)
Dem Adds: 17th Essex-Moran (D-Lawrence), 18th Essex-L'Italien (D-Andover), 6th Worcester-Walker (D-Charlton)

Governor's Council- DEM 7 (+1) GOP 1 (-1)
GOP Adds:
DEM Adds: 1st District-Cipollini (D-Barnstable)

Baker '14
R, MA-3

I approve
How certain/optimistic are you about Ohio?

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker

[ Parent ]
It's a tough call
I think the polls are slightly too D in their composition, and the EV backs that up to an extent. But I think that moves the race from O+3 to T. It's still a dead heat.

I'm going with Romney, because I think the enthusiasm and Independents are on his side ultimately. I think that's going to get him over the top. You are going to tell me that just about every other state is going to move with the national swing, O+7 to T, and Ohio is only going to move 1 point? Count me skeptical.

The other states I think I could be wrong about: VA, NH, IA
I'm pretty confident about the rest, but I'm not much of a prognosticator, that's why I'm in Medical School...

Baker '14
R, MA-3

[ Parent ]
Yay for fellow Med Schooler
We'll see who ends up being right in the "Med vs Med Prediction Battle" :D

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker

[ Parent ]
NH and IA are my toughest calls. As for Ohio...
Those are just ornery states that like to go against the grain.

I generally agree with Ohio. If PA and WI are in play, and MI is close, Ohio will probably come home in the end.

Michigan R% vs Ohio R %
08 - 41%, 47% +6 (that extra 2% is probably due to McCain quitting)
04 - 47%, 51% +4
00 - 46%, 50% +4

Romney - even in his bad polls, is polling over 46% here in every November Poll - even PPP. The October ones had Obama under 50.
Baydoun - 47-46 R
PPP - 52-46O
Ras - 52-47O
Late October:
Det News (Glengariff) - 48-45O
EPIC - 48-42 O

Steve Mitchell hasn't released any polls at this time. He usually nails Michigan. I think he may be doing internals for a Michigan candidate. I did catch comments suggesting that Michigan likely barely out of reach for Romney. I hope he's wrong.

If it's close here, like a 51-46 or 47, then I think it'll be a 50-51% win in Ohio.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

[ Parent ]
My Predictions
I more or less agree with RRR's house ratings, so I won't be redundant by restating them, however, I will make a few Texas related predictions.

SD-10: Sen. Wendy Davis loses to State Rep. Mark Shelton.
Also, my predictions for the presidential race district-by-district in Texas.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

Popular vote: Obama 50%/Romney 48%
Electoral vote: Obama 303/Romney 235
Senate: Dems gain IN, ME, MA and GOP gains NE and ND

Michigan Predictions
Obama 53%/Romney 46%
Stabenow 57%/Hoekstra 42%
MI-1: McDowell 51%/Benishek 48%
MI-11: Bentivolio 53%/Taj 45%
MI-11 (special) Curson 50%/Bentivolio 48%
Ballot propsals: No on all

Predictions - President
Popular Vote: Romney 49.4 - 49.1
Electoral Vote: Obama 303 - 235

These are states RCP rates as toss-ups, from greatest Romney margin to greatest Obama margin.

NC - Romney 51.1 - 47.9
FL - Romney 50.3 - 48.7

VA - Obama 49.6 - 49.3
CO - Obama 49.9 - 48.4
IA - Obama 50.2 - 48.1
NH - Obama 50.3 - 48.3
NV - Obama 50.3 - 47.5
OH - Obama 50.6 - 47.6
PA - Obama 51.3 - 47.3
MI - Obama 51.2 - 47.0
WI - Obama 51.4 - 47.1

These are states RCP rates as lean/likely, in respective order by the closeness of the predicted margin.

AZ - Romney 52.9 - 45.4
MT - Romney 52.8 - 43.8
GA - Romney 54.3 - 44.7
IN - Romney 54.4 - 44.3
MO - Romney 54.5 - 44.1

MN - Obama 51.7 - 46.2
OR - Obama 51.8 - 45.3
NM - Obama 54.6 - 44.1
CT - Obama 55.0 - 43.8
ME - Obama 55.2 - 42.3
NJ - Obama 55.7 - 43.1

Democrat, NC-11

Slight typo
That should be:

ME - Obama 55.2 - 42.9

Though that's about the least of anyone's concern!

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Predictions - Senate
Senate Caucus: 54 D, 46 R

Dems gain IN, ME, MA
Reps gain NE, ND

AZ - Flake 52.3 - 45.7
CA - Feinstein 63.8 - 36.2
CT - Murphy 52.1 - 46.9
FL - Nelson 53.5 - 45.5
HI - Hirono 58.7 - 40.3
IN - Donnelly 49.5 - 44.5
ME - King 50.8 - 37.2 - 11.6
MA - Warren 51.3 - 47.7
MI - Stabenow 56.7 - 41.8
MO - McCaskill 49.2 - 46.3
MT - Tester 48.7 - 48.3
NE - Fischer 55.1 - 44.3
NV - Heller 50.9 - 46.1
NM - Heinrich 54.7 - 44.8
ND - Berg 52.1 - 47.9
OH - Brown 52.1 - 47.1
PA - Casey 52.5 - 46.5
VA - Kaine 51.2 - 48.8
WI - Baldwin 50.3 - 48.7

Democrat, NC-11

Predictions - House
House: 235 R, 200 D

I called a winner for every seat that's listed on the various rating sites that I follow. A actually consider a lot of these to be Safe D or Safe R.

AZ-01: Kirkpatrick (D)
AZ-02: Barber (D)
AZ-09: Sinema (D)

AR-04: Cotton (R)

CA-03: Garamendi (D)
CA-07: Bera (D)
CA-09: McNerney (D)
CA-10: Denham (R)
CA-21: Valadao (R)
CA-24: Capps (D)
CA-26: Brownley (D)
CA-36: Bono Mack (R)
CA-41: Takano (D)
CA-47: Lowenthal (D)
CA-52: Bilbray (R)

CO-03: Tipton (R)
CO-06: Miklosi (D)
CO-07: Perlmutter (D)

CT-05: Esty (D)

FL-02: Southerland (R)
FL-09: Grayson (D)
FL-10: Webster (R)
FL-16: Buchanan (R)
FL-18: West (R)
FL-22: Frankel (D)
FL-26: Garcia (D)

GA-12: Barrow (D)

IA-01: Braley (D)
IA-02: Loebsack (D)
IA-03: Latham (R)
IA-04: King (R)

IL-08: Duckworth (D)
IL-10: Schneider (D)
IL-11: Foster (D)
IL-12: Enyart (D)
IL-13: Gill (D)
IL-17: Bustos (D)

IN-02: Walorski (R)
IN-08: Bucshon (R)

KY-06: Chandler (D)

MA-06: Tisei (R)

MD-06: Delaney (D)

MI-01: McDowell (D)
MI-03: Amash (R)
MI-11: Bentivolio (R)

MN-02: Kline (R)
MN-06: Bachmann (R)
MN-08: Nolan (D)

MT-AL: Daines (R)

NE-02: Terry

NH-01: Guinta (R)
NH-02: Kuster (D)

NJ-03: Runyan (R)

NV-03: Heck (R)
NV-04: Horsford (D)

NY-01: Bishop (D)
NY-11: Grimm (R)
NY-18: Hayworth (R)
NY-19: Gibson (R)
NY-21: Owens (D)
NY-24: Maffei (D)
NY-25: Slaughter (D)
NY-27: Collins (R)

NC-07: McIntyre (D)
NC-08: Hudson (R)
NC-11: Meadows (R)
NC-13: Holding (R)

ND-AL: Cramer (R)

OH-06: Wilson (D)
OH-07: Gibbs (R)
OH-16: Renacci (R)

OK-02: Mullin (R)

PA-06: Gerlach (R)
PA-08: Fitzpatrick (R)
PA-12: Critz (D)

RI-01: Doherty (R)

SD-AL: Noem (R)

TN-04: Stewart (D)

TX-14: Weber (R)
TX-23: Gallego (D)

UT-02: Love (R)

VA-05: Hurt (R)
VA-02: Rigell (R)

WA-01: DelBene (D)
WA-06: Kilmer (D)

WV-03: Rahall (D)

WI-07: Duffy (R)
WI-08: Ribble (R)

Democrat, NC-11

Left off the party label for NE-02.

NE-02: Terry (R)

There's just so many of them!

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
I'm rather ambivalent about a number of my calls. Most of all: CA-10, CO-06, GA-12, IL-10, IL-13, OH-06, RI-01, TN-04.

Obviously those, along with another dozen or so, wouldn't surprise me any if they go the other way.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
FWIW, I lolled at the CO-06 prediction.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
It was a spur of the moment pick. There are always a few surprises and that one seemed like one of the better candidates.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Matheson's seat should be UT-04, not UT-02...

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
I guess I will close out the night and the election season . . .
I hope I'm being pessimistic but . . .


Popular Vote:
Obama  50.25%
Romney 48.75%

Electoral Votes:
Obama  303  (Obama wins Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa)
Romney 235  (Romney wins NC, Florida, Indiana)

Senate: 52 Dem (really 50D + 2 Independents)
       48 GOP

I think I'm actually being a bit optimistic here, as I predict (really hope) that Thompson, Heller and Berg all win.  I would not be surprised with a 54D-46R result.

House:  234 GOP
       201 Dem

GOP to Dem Flips:

NY-18(Hayworth) -- really conflicted here

Dem to GOP Flips:

NY-27(Hochul)-- really conflicted here
OH-16(Renacci v. Sutton)

I realize that my House seat accounting differs from the RRR model, but the net Dem gain is eight.  

Pretty close to what I have
However, in the Presidential race, my mind looks at the polls and says Obama, but my gut keeps pointing to Romney.  I think if Thompson wins Wisconsin, Romney will too.  The polling difference between the two races isnt much different.  Its either going to be Thompson/Romney or Obama/Baldwin.  Almost no crossover support here except for in that ridiculous Marquette poll.  

Im going to go with my gut here and say 273-265 Romney, with Iowa, Wisconsin, Virginia, Florida, Colorado and North Carolina going to Romney and New Hampshire, Nevada, and Ohio going to Obama.  It looks like Ohio just isnt moving. Early voting data looks great in Iowa and Colorado.  

[ Parent ]
You are really going out on a limb . . .
From your computer to God's ears.  

But my experience has taught me repeatedly to trust the poll numbers over any gut feeling.  

Maybe this time is different.  But color me skeptical.  

[ Parent ]
Look at the early vote in Colorado and Iowa
Republicans have a two point edge in the Colorado early vote and it will be about 80% of the total final vote.  Obama would need to be winning independents by double digits to win there.

Look at Iowa.  Democrats only have a 10 point edge in early voting, which is even less than they had in 2004 when Bush narrowly won the state.  

Most Virginia polls are either tied or show a slight lead for either candidate and Obama cant break 48% in any of those polls(except for PPP, which had him at 51% there even at the height of the Romney debate bounce).  

We really only need the polling to be off in one state if you take the actual voting info over polls in Iowa and Colorado.  We need to win Ohio(not ruling it out, but no hopeful) or Wisconsin(Scott Walker and company have one of the best GOTV machines in the country).  

[ Parent ]
I take that back
Angus Reid has Obama up 53%-46% there and Baldwin up 50%-48% in Wisconsin.  I certainly dont see a margin like that being reversed.  Romney absolutely has to have Ohio.  

[ Parent ]
A good GOTV operation is worth (at most) two points . . .
on election day.  And the Scott Walker GOTV machine is likely matched by the Obama/Recall GOTV machines.  

Given that most polls have Romney down 4 to 8 percent in Wisconsin, I very much doubt that any GOP GOTV operation can pull him across the finish line.  

[ Parent ]
See my above comment
I really blame George W. Bush for this electoral college problem.  He really left Republicans with no room for error in the electoral college.  Sure, he made former battlegrounds like West Virginia, Kentucky, and Louisiana safe for Republicans, but cost them dearly in former swing states like New Jersey, Connecticut, Michigan, and Oregon.  

[ Parent ]
Blame his father . . .
1992 was a landmark election in some respects.  Numerous formerly reliable GOP leaning states and formerly battleground state adopted a blueish hue.  These included New Jersey (0 GOP wins since 1988), California(0), Michigan (0), Pennsylvania (0), New Hampshire (1), Vermont (0), Connecticut (0), Maine (0) and Delaware (0).  

[ Parent ]
Vermont and California were clearly headed that way
Bush barely won them in 1988 when everything was going his way.  

2004 basically sums up of how much Republicans need to thread the needle to get an electoral college victory.  The fact that a wartime President with a relatively good economy came within one state of losing to a pretty horrendous challenger shows how difficult it has become.  

[ Parent ]
What makes you think that Hayworth will lose? Maybe I'm missing something, but she seems like a lock for reelection to me. The district is in the NYC exurbs and has an R+ PVI. Hayworth also fits the district very well. Her opponent seems fairly competent, and she lost the Independence Party ballot line. However, Romney should win the district, even if he loses nationally. The only poll I've seen looks good for Hayworth.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Hayworth perhaps could've lost to a strong challenger
Alas, Sean Patrick Maloney is the Hudson Valley's answer to Mark Green; a dull, liberal, Clintonian insider.

25, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Jeb 2016. Visit me at

[ Parent ]
Predicions from Norway
These are my predictions as posted on my Norwegian language blog Tuesday morning. You don't need to read Norwegian to read the tables...

President: Obama 294 vs Romney 244

Senate: D 23 vs R 10 (53-47 in total)

House: D 190 vs R 245

Gov: D 6 vs R 5 (18-32 in total)

Libertarian Conservative, Norway.

I remember when people scoffed at me for suggesting Republicans could gain seats in the House. Well, they will.

Dem Pick-ups: AZ-9, FL-26, IL-8, IL-11, MD-6, MI-1, MN-8, NH-2, NY-24, OH-6, TX-23

To Dem: FL-22, FL-9, TX-33, TX-34, WA-10

GOP Pick-ups: AR-4, CA-21, CA-47, CT-5, IN-2, MA-6, NC-8, NC-11, NC-13 NY-27, OK-2, UT-4

To GOP: GA-9, SC-7, TX-25, TX-36, UT-2, AZ-1, NV-4
Retain: IA-3, OH-16

No Democratic pick-ups in California. Overall, R+4

Unfortunately, I see an Obama win 281-257, but I'm optimistic I'm wrong.

In the senate, the Dems get Indiana and Massachusetts, while the GOP gets Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Maine goes to King. So it's 50D-49R.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Republicans picking up CA-47?
Are you freakin' kidding me?  Even John Kerry won that district 52%-48%.  I seriously doubt Dold or Schilling hold on either, those districts are just brutal for them.  

[ Parent ]
I have to concur with Dango on CA-47.
I know that you're on the ground there and have worked with DeLong. There's a good chance that you're suffering from 'Campaign Bubble Syndrome' when it comes to this race. I'll concede that DeLong has the right profile to win a district like this given the right circumstances. However, one of those circumstances would probably be a terrible, if not toxic, opponent. He might have been able to do it against a mediocre Democrat in a Republican wave year. Every two years, both sides recruit a handful of great candidates in districts that are winnable, but longshots. Occasionally, one or two of those candidates win. Walt Minnick, a stellar recruit, pulled it off in 2008. Scott Brown did it in the special election for Ted Kennedy's seat. However, there are many more who are great recruits in theoretically winnable races who just don't make it. Steve Pestka will probably lose. Maggie Brooks is a great candidate, but she'll likely lose as well. The same can be said for Gary DeLong.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Barebones after all-nighter.
PV: Obama + 2.2
EV: 275-263 (Romney wins NC, FL, CO, VA IA. Obama wins OH, PA, WI, NH. IA least confident)

Dem Senate Pickups: MA, IN, ME
GOP Senate Pickups: NE, ND, WI
No Change

House: D+4

It'll be a shitty night for us and for America.  

Liberal Cosmopolitan, NH-2 (College), CA-15 (Hometown)


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