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Final Presidential Predix Rundown

by: andyroo312

Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 14:07:31 PM EST


We're almost there!

Arizona

R - 40
D - 33
I - 27

Obama - 4/89/42 = 43%
Romney - 95/10/55 = 56%

Colorado

I - 37
R - 33
D - 30

Obama - 47/9/90 = 48%
Romney - 50/90/9 = 51%

Connecticut

D - 40
I - 31
R - 29

Obama - 89/48/7 = 53%
Romney - 10/49/92 = 46%

Florida

D - 35
R - 35
I - 30

Obama - 90/6/47 = 48%
Romney - 9/93/50 = 51%

Indiana

R - 43
D - 34
I - 23

Obama - 6/85/43 = 42%
Romney - 93/14/54 = 57%

Iowa

R - 34
D - 33
I - 33

Obama - 7/90/47 = 48%
Romney - 92/9/50 = 51%

Maine

I - 38
D - 33
R - 29

Obama - 52/87/9 = 52%
Romney - 45/12/90 = 47%

Massachusetts

I - 41
D - 40
R - 19

Obama - 48/92/6 = 56%
Romney - 49/7/93 = 43%

Michigan

D - 39
I - 31
R - 30

Obama - 90/48/7 = 52%
Romney - 9/49/92 = 47%

Minnesota

D - 39
R - 37
I - 24

Obama - 92/6/48 = 50%
Romney - 7/93/49 = 49%

Missouri

D - 36
R - 35
I - 29

Obama - 86/3/42 = 44%
Romney - 13/96/55 = 55%

Montana

I - 36
R - 35
D - 29

Obama - 40/6/89 = 42%
Romney - 57/93/10 = 57%

Nevada

D - 36
I - 32
R - 32

Obama - 92/49/9 = 52%
Romney - 7/48/90 = 47%

New Hampshire

I - 44
R - 29
D - 27

Obama - 47/6/90 = 48%
Romney - 50/93/9 = 51%

New Mexico

D - 42
R - 30
I - 28

Obama - 88/2/43 = 50%
Romney - 9/91/45 = 45%
Johnson - 2/4/9 = 5%

North Carolina

D - 39
R - 33
I - 28

Obama - 87/2/34 = 46%
Romney - 12/97/63 = 53%

Ohio

D - 36
R - 33
I - 31

Obama - 90/6/48 = 49%
Romney - 9/93/49 = 50%

Pennsylvania

D - 42
R - 39
I - 19

Obama - 87/5/45 = 49%
Romney - 12/94/52 = 50%

Virginia

D - 36
R - 35
I - 29

Obama - 89/5/45 = 48%
Romney - 10/94/52 = 51%

Wisconsin

D - 37
R - 35
I - 28

Obama - 92/4/47 = 49%
Romney - 7/95/50 = 50%

Obama to Romney flips: Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin

Romney 316 EV, Obama 222 EV
Romney 51.3, Obama 47.7

andyroo312 :: Final Presidential Predix Rundown
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Wow.
This is quite a predix. Esp. on the PV #'s.

Let's hope you're right!

(I do like some of your numbers, esp. New Mexico, which I think is probably spot on...)  


New Mexico?
NM would be one of the states, I'd dispute the most. Romney within 5 points is a bit optimistic, imho.

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker

[ Parent ]
Not Really
Look at NM's results in 2000 and 2004. There hasn't been a huge demo shift there. There's plenty of reason to think that 2008 was the anomaly (e.g. like Indiana), not the other way around.  

[ Parent ]
Hispanic Population
grew by 13.2% from 2000 to 2010 and since Democrats seem to "run away" with the Hispanic community.


German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker

[ Parent ]
Oy gevalt!
I very much wish your prediction will come true!

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker

I tend to agree
Unless there was some massive R effort to get an absentee advantage in PA, then I believe the R edge is indicative of the way the state's electorate will sway on Tuesday.  

I see a narrow Romney win overall.

36, Republican, NJ-11  


I just woke up...
I realized that this is the transcript of the dream...  

25, Male, R, NY-10

Agreed
I still haven't decided whether I'll spend election night sitting in my room, watching tv with lots and lots of comfort food, or rather go to bed and wake up "in the know".

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker

[ Parent ]
I'd rather stay up, if I were you.
I wouldn't be able to go to sleep.  

22, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Matt 6:25-34    

[ Parent ]
Maybe take a nap until 2:00 AM?
The real fun begins at 8:00 EST, when a big wave of eastern states close their polls, and sometimes a few major early calls are made. That's 2 your time.

[ Parent ]
agreed
7 PM Central is as popular a time for states in the Central timezone to close as 8 PM Eastern is for states in the Eastern timezone.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
I'll stay up
take a nap of five to six hours before the fun starts, and then watch the entire thing with loads of comfort food and propably a good dozen tabs open to keep track. :D

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker

[ Parent ]
Pennsylvania?
Obama won PA by more votes than he won NJ in 2008.

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