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TX-Pres CD-by-CD Predictions

by: TexasR

Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 18:28:07 PM EST


Since Texas is rarely polled, and I've never seen toplines in the few congressional polls I have seen, I looked at the districts, who lives there, who is turning out to vote, and how the districts are trending to come up with these numbers. Please treat my predictions as a poll with a MoE of +/-3. I also included what the 2008 and 2004 results would have been in these districts had they existed in those elections.

Note: map can be found here.
TexasR :: TX-Pres CD-by-CD Predictions
CD Incumbent Party Romney Obama McCain Obama Bush Kerry
1 Gohmert
(R)
69
30
69
30
70
30
2 Poe
(R)
65
34
62
37
67
33
3 Johnson, Sam
(R)
68
31
62
37
71
29
4 Hall
(R)
70
29
70
29
69
31
5 Hensarling
(R)
63
36
62
37
66
34
6 Barton
(R)
60
39
57
42
66
34
7 Culberson
(R)
64
35
59
40
66
34
8 Brady
(R)
74
25
73
26
75
25
9 Green, Al
(D)
23
76
23
76
31
69
10 McCaul
(R)
60
39
56
43
62
38
11 Conway
(R)
77
22
76
23
78
22
12 Granger
(R)
66
33
64
35
68
32
13 Thornberry
(R)
78
21
77
22
78
22
14 *Open*
58
41
57
42
57
43
15* Hinojosa
(D)
41
58
42
57
54
46
16 *Open*
34
65
35
64
45
55
17 Flores
(R)
60
39
58
41
63
37
18 Jackson-Lee
(D)
21
78
23
76
30
70
19 Neugebauer
(R)
75
24
71
28
77
23
20 *Open*
43
56
41
58
50
50
21 Smith
(R)
60
39
56
42
63
37
22 Olson
(R)
62
37
60
39
67
33
23 Canseco
(R)
51
48
49
50
59
41
24 Marchant
(R)
64
35
58
41
67
33
25 *Open*
59
40
56
43
62
38
26 Burgess
(R)
69
30
64
35
72
28
27 Farenthold
(R)
60
39
59
40
63
37
28* Cuellar
(D)
44
55
41
58
53
47
29 Green, Gene
(D)
35
64
37
62
44
55
30 Johnson, E.B.
(D)
20
79
21
78
30
70
31 Carter
(R)
63
36
56
43
66
34
32 Sessions
(R)
61
38
55
44
62
38
33 *Open*
30
69
31
69
38
62
34* *Open*
39
60
39
60
51
49
35 Doggett
(D)
36
63
36
63
43
57
36 *Open*
70
29
70
30
68
32
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TX-Pres CD-by-CD Predictions | 5 comments
Hmm
It'll sure be fantastic to see Romney get to 61% in TX-32. Good call now blowing up his margins in East Texas.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!
interesting
Bush's performance in the Hispanic districts (esp TX-23, TX-15) is absurd.

26, R, PA-01.



This is great
We've heard a lot of crazy talk from my side about getting seats like TX-32 in the next decade. Do you think thats possible, or do you think they are headed back your way?
TX-32
I doubt it. I mean, I just don't know how you guys can do it when Dewhurst ran better in TX-32 in 2010 than Bush did in 2004, and the race data from the last decade shows it being even more Republican downballot. Also, its new swaths of Northeast Dallas County will probably trend R as new homes get built there due to the recent completion of the Bush Turnpike.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17
[ Parent ]
Shucks
Looks like that second vote sink in DFW was really, really unnecessary.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!
TX-Pres CD-by-CD Predictions | 5 comments
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Elections have consequences -- from the race for President to the race for one seat on a city council. The political economist Max Weber wrote that the state possesses a monopoly on the legitimate use of force. But in the United States, the state is divided into myriad federal, state, and local entities. And the elections to fill those entities are the products of the fascinating interactions between campaigns, party affiliations, voter turnout, and the media spotlight. Red Racing Horses analyzes those elections -- from a Republican-leaning perspective -- to keep a close eye on the process of electing officials, and to offer our perspective on the election-related issues of the day. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog.

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