| Here are my predictions, signed, sealed, and delivered, beginning with the presidential race. Switches from 2008 are noted with an asterisk.
| State | Result | D Electoral Votes | R Electoral Votes |
|---|
| Alabama | Romney by 19.23 | | 9 |
| Alaska | Romney by 20.43 | | 3 |
| Arizona | Romney by 6.84 | | 11 |
| Arkansas | Romney by 22.87 | | 6 |
| California | Obama by 19.92 | 55 | |
| Colorado | Obama by 2.59 | 9 | |
| Connecticut | Obama by 15.74 | 7 | |
| Delaware | Obama by 26.09 | 3 | |
| District of Columbia | Obama by 87.03 | 3 | |
| Florida | Romney by 0.26* | | 29 |
| Georgia | Romney by 6.71 | | 16 |
| Hawaii | Obama by 36.69 | 4 | |
| Idaho | Romney by 24.19 | | 4 |
| Illinois | Obama by 18.81 | 20 | |
| Indiana | Romney by 5.43* | | 11 |
| Iowa | Obama by 2.79 | 6 | |
| Kansas | Romney by 13.81 | | 6 |
| Kentucky | Romney by 14.55 | | 8 |
| Louisiana | Romney by 17.52 | | 8 |
| Maine | Obama by 15.29 | 4 | |
| Maryland | Obama by 22.39 | 10 | |
| Massachusetts | Obama by 21.84 | 11 | |
| Michigan | Obama by 5.18 | 16 | |
| Minnesota | Obama by 8.34 | 10 | |
| Mississippi | Romney by 12.06 | | 6 |
| Missouri | Romney by 8.3 | | 10 |
| Montana | Romney by 5.11 | | 3 |
| Nebraksa | Romney by 13.41 | | 5 |
| Nevada | Obama by 3.64 | 6 | |
| New Hampshire | Obama by 3.01 | 4 | |
| New Jersey | Obama by 14.33 | 14 | |
| New Mexico | Obama by 11.66 | 5 | |
| New York | Obama by 26.87 | 29 | |
| North Carolina | Romney by 0.46* | | 15 |
| North Dakota | Romney by 19.11 | | 3 |
| Ohio | Obama by 2.96 | 18 | |
| Oklahoma | Romney by 29.59 | | 7 |
| Oregon | Obama by 9.78 | 7 | |
| Pennsylvania | Obama by 6.09 | 20 | |
| Rhode Island | Obama by 22.98 | 4 | |
| South Carolina | Romney by 7.87 | | 9 |
| South Dakota | Romney by 6.65 | | 3 |
| Tennessee | Romney by 13.95 | | 11 |
| Texas | Romney by 14.9 | | 38 |
| Utah | Romney by 33.45 | | 6 |
| Vermont | Obama by 37.56 | 3 | |
| Virginia | Obama by 2.05 | 13 | |
| Washington | Obama by 12.05 | 12 | |
| West Virginia | Romney by 12.99 | | 5 |
| Wisconsin | Obama by 5.8 | 10 | |
| Wyoming | Romney by 31.23 | | 3 |
| Total | | 303 | 235 |
|---|
Next up is the short and sweet table of governor races. Pickups are noted with an asterisk.
| State | Result |
|---|
| Delaware | Safe Markell (D) |
| Indiana | Pence (D) by 7.87 |
| Missouri | Nixon (D) by 13 |
| Montana | Daines (R) by 0.5* |
| New Hampshire | Hassan (D) by 3 |
| North Carolina | McCrory (R) by 14.25* |
| North Dakota | Dalrymple (R) by 35 |
| Utah | Safe Herbert (R) |
| Vermont | Shumlin (D) by 34.00 |
| Washington | Inslee (D) by 0.5 |
| West Virginia | Tomblin (D) by 21 |
| Total Governors | 30 Republicans, 19 Democrats, 1 Independent |
|---|
Now for the Senate races. I don't know if it will happen, but I predict a status quo. Again, the good old asterisk for the pickups.
| State | Result |
|---|
| Arizona | Carmona (D) by 0.5* |
| California | Feinstein (D) by 19 |
| Connecticut | Murphy (D) by 4.67 |
| Delaware | Safe Carper (D) |
| Florida | Nelson (D) by 7.43 |
| Hawaii | Hirono (D) by 18.5 |
| Indiana | Donnelly (D) by 3* |
| Maine | King (I) by 18* |
| Maryland | Cardin (D) by 26.09 |
| Massachusetts | Warren (D) by 4.67* |
| Michigan | Stabenow (D) by 13.5 |
| Minnesota | Klobuchar (D) by 30 |
| Mississippi | Safe Wicker (R) |
| Missouri | McCaskill (D) by 6.25 |
| Montana | Rehberg (R) by 1.13* |
| Nebraska | Fischer (R) by 13* |
| Nevada | Heller (R) by 5.14 |
| New Jersey | Menendez (D) by 18 |
| New Mexico | Heinrich (D) by 9.67 |
| New York | Gillibrand (D) by 43 |
| North Dakota | Berg (R) by 5* |
| Ohio | Brown (D) by 6.14 |
| Pennsylvania | Casey (D) by 5.14 |
| Rhode Island | Whitehouse (D) by 25.5 |
| Tennessee | Safe Corker (R) |
| Texas | Cruz (R) by 21.5 |
| Utah | Safe Hatch (R) |
| Vermont | Safe Sanders (I) |
| Virginia | Kaine (D) by 1.57 |
| Washington | Cantwell (D) by 16.5 |
| West Virginia | Manchin (D) by 39 |
| Wisconsin | Baldwin (D) by 2.67 |
| Wyoming | Safe Barrasso (R) |
| Total Senators | 51 Democrats, 47 Republicans, 2 Indpendents |
|---|
Finally, the competitive House races, which will result in a Dem gain of 3 seats for a 239-196 GOP majority.
| District | Result |
|---|
| AZ-01 | Paton (R) by 1.88 |
| AZ-02 | Barber (D) by 5.63 |
| AZ-09 | Sinema (D) by 2.56 |
| CA-03 | Garamendi (D) by 15 |
| CA-07 | Bera (D) by 1.25 |
| CA-09 | McNerney (D) by 1.25 |
| CA-10 | Denham (R) by 1.13 |
| CA-24 | Capps (D) by 2.5 |
| CA-26 | Brownley (D) by 0.5 |
| CA-36 | Bono Mack (R) by 0.63 |
| CA-41 | Takano (D) by 6.25 |
| CA-47 | Lowenthal (D) by 15 |
| CA-52 | Peters (D) by 0.31 |
| CO-03 | Tipton (R) by 5 |
| CO-06 | Coffman (R) by 4.38 |
| CO-07 | Perlmutter (D) by 7.5 |
| CT-05 | Esty (D) by 3.13 |
| FL-02 | Southerland (R) by 6.25 |
| FL-10 | Webster (R) by 5 |
| FL-16 | Buchanan (R) by 10 |
| FL-18 | West (R) by 4.59 |
| FL-22 | Frankel (D) by 3.89 |
| FL-26 | Rivera (R) by 2 |
| GA-12 | Barrow (D) by 4.25 |
| IL-08 | Duckworth (D) by 8.75 |
| IL-10 | Dold (R) by 1.88 |
| IL-11 | Foster (D) by 2.81 |
| IL-12 | Enyart (D) by 4.94 |
| IL-13 | Gill (D) by 0.63 |
| IL-17 | Bustos (D) by 0.63 |
| IN-02 | Walorski (R) by 12.5 |
| IN-08 | Bucshon (R) by 10 |
| IA-01 | Braley (D) by 15 |
| IA-02 | Loebsack (D) by 10 |
| IA-03 | Latham (R) by 3.75 |
| IA-04 | King (R) by 3.44 |
| KY-06 | Chandler (D) by 5.19 |
| MD-06 | Delaney (D) by 5.5 |
| MA-06 | Tisei (R) by 5.5 |
| MI-01 | McDowell (D) by 1.31 |
| MI-03 | Amash (R) by 11.25 |
| MI-11 | Bentivolio (R) by 6.25 |
| MN-02 | Kline (R) by 15 |
| MN-06 | Bachmann (R) by 6.25 |
| MN-08 | Nolan (D) by 2.56 |
| MT-AL | Daines (R) by 8.67 |
| NV-03 | Heck (R) by 9 |
| NV-04 | Tarkanian (R) by 0.56 |
| NH-01 | Guinta (R) by 5.31 |
| NH-02 | Kuster (D) by 4.85 |
| NJ-03 | Runyan (R) by 10.63 |
| NY-01 | Bishop (D) by 8.69 |
| NY-11 | Grimm (R) by 13.38 |
| NY-18 | Hayworth (R) by 4.75 |
| NY-19 | Gibson (R) by 3.75 |
| NY-21 | Owens (D) by 2.06 |
| NY-24 | Maffei (D) by 1.56 |
| NY-25 | Slaughter (D) by 9.38 |
| NY-27 | Collins (R) by 2.06 |
| NC-07 | Rouzer (R) by 0.63 |
| NC-08 | Hudson (R) by 10 |
| NC-11 | Meadows (R) by 12.5 |
| ND-AL | Cramer (R) by 12.25 |
| OH-06 | Johnson (R) by 4.38 |
| OH-16 | Renacci (R) by 1.88 |
| OK-02 | Mullin (R) by 11.63 |
| PA-06 | Gerlach (R) by 15 |
| PA-08 | Fitzpatrick (R) by 11.25 |
| PA-12 | Critz (D) by 1.88 |
| RI-01 | Cicilline (D) by 2.83 |
| SD-AL | Noem (R) by 12 |
| TN-04 | DesJarlais (R) by 5 |
| TX-14 | Weber (R) by 6.25 |
| TX-23 | Gallego (D) by 1 |
| UT-04 | Love (R) by 8.19 |
| VA-02 | Regel (R) by 10 |
| WA-01 | DelBene (D) by 5.25 |
| WV-03 | Rahall (D) by 12.5 |
| WI-07 | Duffy (R) by 6.25 |
| WI-08 | Ribble (R) by 15 |
| Total Representatives | 239 Republicans, 196 Democrats |
|---|
Now onto my final California predictions:
U.S. House
| District | Registration | CPVI | 2010 Sen. | 2010 Gov. | PF |
|---|
| CA-03 | R+2.7 | D+2.8 | R+6.3 | R+3.0 | R+2.3 |
| CA-07 | R+8.0 | R+0.9 | R+9 | R+4.1 | R+5.5 |
| CA-09 | R+1.4 | D+4.3 | R+3.8 | R+2.2 | R+0.8 |
| CA-10 | R+8.3 | R+3.8 | R+12.3 | R+9.6 | R+8.6 |
| CA-24 | R+6.4 | D+4.3 | R+6 | R+6.5 | R+3.7 |
| CA-26 | R+5.6 | D+4.0 | R+6.3 | R+7.3 | R+3.8 |
| CA-36 | R+8.9 | R+2.1 | R+10.2 | R+10.2 | R+7.9 |
| CA-41 | R+5.7 | D+5.9 | R+1.6 | R+0.3 | R+0.4 |
| CA-47 | R+0.4 | D+6.3 | R+0.3 | R+1.5 | D+0.7 |
| CA-52 | R+7.6 | D+2.5 | R+9.2 | R+11.0 | R+6.3 |
State Senate (odd-numbered districts)
| District | Registration | CPVI | 2010 Sen. | 2010 Gov. | PF |
|---|
| SD-05 | R+13.2 | D+0.6 | R+8.8 | R+6.0 | R+6.9 |
| SD-19 | R+0.8 | D+7.9 | R+2.2 | R+3.4 | D+0.4 |
| SD-27 | R+3.8 | D+4.7 | R+5.7 | R+7.2 | R+3.0 |
| SD-31 | R+8.0 | D+3.8 | R+5.4 | R+4.0 | R+3.4 |
| SD-39 | R+2.8 | D+8.6 | R+2.0 | R+3.8 | R+0.0 |
State Assembly
| District | Registration | CPVI | 2010 Sen. | 2010 Gov. | PF |
|---|
| AD-08 | R+5.9 | EVEN | R+7.9 | R+3.0 | R+4.2 |
| AD-16 | R+4.1 | D+8.3 | R+2.8 | R+3.9 | R+0.6 |
| AD-21 | R+2.6 | D+2.2 | R+8.9 | R+5.7 | R+3.8 |
| AD-32 | D+3.2 | D+0.3 | R+9.6 | R+11.1 | R+4.3 |
| AD-40 | R+8.5 | D+0.2 | R+8.4 | R+6.3 | R+5.8 |
| AD-44 | R+8.0 | D+2.5 | R+8.2 | R+9.5 | R+5.8 |
| AD-60 | R+12.5 | R+1.1 | R+10.7 | R+9.2 | R+8.4 |
| AD-61 | R+4.3 | D+8.7 | R+0.1 | D+1.1 | D+1.4 |
| AD-65 | R+8.8 | R+1.9 | R+10.6 | R+11.2 | R+8.1 |
| AD-66 | R+5.1 | D+2.8 | R+6.4 | R+7.5 | R+4.1 |
| AD-78 | D+0.2 | D+12.0 | D+3.4 | D+1.4 | D+4.3 |
Assuming districts with a PF of less than R+7 are Dem wins (California's Cook PVI is D+7), then the composition of the delegations will be as follows:
U.S. House: 37 DEM, 16 GOP
(Districts 3, 7, 9, 24, 26, 41, 47 and 52 go DEM; 10 and 36 go GOP)
Safe DEM (29): 2, 5, 6, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 27, 28, 29, 30, 32, 33, 34, 35, 37, 38, 40, 43, 44, 46, 51, 53
Safe GOP (14): 1, 4, 8, 21, 22, 23, 25, 31, 39, 42, 45, 48, 49, 50
State Senate: 28 DEM, 12 GOP
(Districts 5, 19, 27, 31, and 39 all go DEM)
Safe DEM (10): 3, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 17, 25, 33, 35
Safe GOP (5): 1, 21, 23, 29, 37
Up in 2014: 13 DEM, 7 GOP
State Assembly: 55 DEM, 25 GOP
(Districts 8, 16, 21, 32, 40, 44, 61, 66, and 78 go DEM; 60 and 65 go GOP)
Safe DEM (46): 2, 4, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 22, 24, 25, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 37, 39, 41, 43, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 56, 57, 58, 59, 62, 63, 64, 69, 70, 79, 80
Safe GOP (23): 1, 3, 5, 6, 12, 23, 26, 33, 34, 35, 36, 38, 42, 55, 67, 68, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77 |
