Red Racing Horses
Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?


About

Red Racing Horses analyzes and discusses elections from a Republican-leaning perspective. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog. Please read our site Terms of Use.

~The RRH Moderators: BostonPatriot, Daniel Surman, GoBigRedState, Greyhound, James_Nola, Right Reformer, Ryan_in_SEPA, and Shamlet.

Problems logging into your account? Inside information? Complaints? Compliments? E-Mail us at: redracinghorses@yahoo.com. We check it often!

The Current RRH Race Ratings:

Final 2014 Race Ratings

2014 Turkey Awards


RRH Partial Results Liveblog I

by: shamlet

Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 18:00:00 PM EST


7:29 ET - The early going: Barr up 51-46 with 20% in. Buchson on 49-48 with the most Democratic parts of the district in.

6:50 ET - Sleeper race? Larry Bucshon is down 49-48 in IN-08, 9% in. 

6:35 ET - Jackie Walorski is up 54-43 in IN-02, perhaps the first House seat that will change hands tonight. 

6:29 ET - Mourdock is running about 10 points behind Romney and 3 behind Pence in the very, very, very early going. Sign that this will be close.

6:27 ET - Andy Barr's lead is 53-45 with a few precincts reporting in KY-06. A good start. 

6:24 ET - First results from IN-Sen: Mourdock 55 Donnelly 40 with 11K mostly rural votes in.

6:19 ET-  It was from Franklin County (Frankfort) which is also 51-47 for Romney. If Barr is running even with Romney it's a great sign for him.

6:13 ET -  Barr up 51-47 in the first precinct from KY-6. Don't know what county it's from yet.

6:06 ET - aaand we have our first precinct. Romney up 77-20 in bright red Casey County, KY.

6:00 ET - Polls are closed in eastern IN and eastern KY. This blog is the place where we'll hash out partial returns and compare to baselines, and all that fun stuff.

shamlet :: RRH Partial Results Liveblog I
Tags: (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

How did Casey county, KY vote in 2008?


26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


78-20
basically the same.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Great from HuffPo
Mitt is doing better in almost every single county that is reporting in KY.
http://elections.huffingtonpos...

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


IN-SEN
In early Indiana returns, Mourdock is running 10 pts behind Romney's % of the vote. Not good for him.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


In terms of vote, he is
In terms of Margin, Mourdock-Donnelly is a fully 17 points to the left of Romney-Obama

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Mourdock ahead of Pence so far
http://elections.huffingtonpos...

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


I believe that to be wrong
Per CNN, they have Pence over Gregg at 60-37 right now. Whereas Mourdock is up on Donnelly 56-39.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Which page to use
apart from RRH, of course?

FoxNews Decision display?
Huffpo?
DailyKos?
CNN?

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker


[ Parent ]
I am on CNN
They seem to be updating fastest  

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
I'm Guessing The Early NH Vote Is From D Areas?
Anyone know>  

It's Dixville Notch and Hart's Location
So like 40 votes. Nothing to sweat!

[ Parent ]
the bigger of the two is
The smaller one was split evenly 5-5.


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO Pattonville School District, Maryland Heights Fire District (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Bush did win the bigger one in 2000 and 2004
So it isn't THAT heavily Democratic. But Obama carried it large in 08, and even larger last night

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
population grew significantly between last time as well
It seems to have attracted more Ds. I'm just not sure if the new residents mostly already lived elsewhere in NH or if they moved into the state.

The smaller one's population evaporated.



42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO Pattonville School District, Maryland Heights Fire District (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
Yeah It Is
A town that small, it has little bearing on how it voted 8 years ago vs. now. Hart's Location now has a 2-to-1 Dem registration edge, and it looks like the "Indies" there are overwhelming Left-leaning. It's pretty clear that most of the people there now weren't around in 2008...  

[ Parent ]
Ohio note
In Ohio, they are planning on counting all the early votes first. (Maybe they already have and are going to report them all as soon as polls close?)

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO Pattonville School District, Maryland Heights Fire District (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

deja vu in SC and GA
yet again they can't call these states at 7.
It doesn't mean much given how big the Republican margins tend to be when they finally finish counting.


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO Pattonville School District, Maryland Heights Fire District (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

Did they exit poll the state?


26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
I didn't memorize the list they are covering
But I haven't trusted exit polls to call races either.
I instead only use them as analysis as why the state went the way it did.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO Pattonville School District, Maryland Heights Fire District (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Probably Not
They basically dumped out "the states that won't be close" from the Exit Polls. I'd expect GA and SC were in that category...  

[ Parent ]
SC
Richland County always comes in first (Columbia- D base) and the Republican heavy upstate last. That's why calls are always late. Predictable pattern.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
fox recounted the 2004 bad exit polls
and then did a 180 and started showing the 2012 ones.


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO Pattonville School District, Maryland Heights Fire District (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

lol
thought the same.

I also think it's not a good move to just call a state b/c of history ... see VT.

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker


[ Parent ]
Florida starts out 55-45
Of course most results are from Orange County.

28, R, PA-07.

Nassau County - Fully reported, Romney 73 Obama 26
Those are Bush 2004 numbers.

28, R, PA-07.

Ignorant German reporting
Nassau in which state?  

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker

[ Parent ]
Florida
NT

28, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Nassau
McCain won it 27K to 10K.  Mitt only getting 21K to 7.5K?  Are early votes missing from the totals?  

[ Parent ]
Florida has 10 days following election day for mail in ballots


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO Pattonville School District, Maryland Heights Fire District (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
perhaps, and politico is stupid
Other places are showing 75% in. Mitt 74% Obama 26%.

28, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
and Nassau fully reports
Romney 74 Obama 25

28, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Vigo is in: 99%, tied at 49%
Story of the campaign.

28, R, PA-07.

What Does This Mean? (nt)


[ Parent ]
Vigo county, IN is one of the nation's bellweathers
NT

28, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Miami-Dade Tied
As per Fox.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

It matters where those votes are from within the county
And if they are early or election day.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
a political ad just ran on TV
at 6:46 PM local; only FOURTEEN MINUTES before the polls close in Missouri. Anyone who hadn't voted already that heard it would have trouble driving to their polling site and in line by the time polls close at 7.
(It's a US Senate one)

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO Pattonville School District, Maryland Heights Fire District (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

MO analysis
Akin is running well behind both Romney and Spence (the Republican candidate for Governor) in two red blood states.
(He's winning but he's only getting 54 percent)

That's enough to call it for McCasckill.

Romney's margin percentage is running very much ahead of 08; enough to call for Romney.

Spence's margin for governor looks likes its only to be tight, but a narrow defeat when STL and KC come in.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO Pattonville School District, Maryland Heights Fire District (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


ballot measures
A extremely likely to pass (return control of police department to St Louis)

B is probably headed down; margin is roughly the equalvent to the normalized two-party presidential race.

E is probably going to pass; it's running ahead of Romney

3 is headed down big; it's under-performing Akin by a big margin and virtually all the votes so far are from rural Republican areas.


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO Pattonville School District, Maryland Heights Fire District (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
What Parts Of Texas Are In Right Now?
Is Cruz underperforming?...  

What's with Ohio numbers?
Are they mostly early votes?

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.

They dumped about 400k early votes
Since then, it's been trickling in

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
What's the early vote result in OH in 2008?


[ Parent ]
GA-12: Anderson up 52-48 with 16% in


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

Stick a fork in Anderson
He's down 55/45 and Barrow has about a 24,000 vote lead.  The remaining vote from Columbia County will knock down the margin somewhat, but there isn't enough outstanding to close that margin.

[ Parent ]
Obama is at 60% in Palm Beach
2/3 in.

28, R, PA-07.

Collin County, TX Early Vote
67% Romney

#WhatTrend?

Lifelong Republican, TX-17


No way to tell
The SoS site is well, awful...it just has a row for early votes, and a row for the total votes.

https://team1.sos.state.tx.us/...

Lifelong Republican, TX-17


[ Parent ]
If anyone is wondering why MO races haven't been called
it's because only 2% of the vote is in here.
It's normal for the urban areas to be slow; but it seems the rural counties have been taking lessons from St Louis.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO Pattonville School District, Maryland Heights Fire District (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

Southerland Now Up In FL-02...
...with 94% in.

Looks like the Leon co. results earlier distorted the results.

Still, this will be a district to worry about going forward...  


PA-12: Critz/Rothfus Tied With 16% In
Ugh. We'd better not lose this one...  :/  

TX Counties
Romney currently leading in Harris and Bexar. Both were Bush/Obama Counties. KHOU is going to have some egg on their face...

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

Benishek might pull it out


26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


Missouri update
Governor: Nixon is ahead; with only rural counted, that will hold up.

Senate: Akin is significantly under performing Spence. McCacskill is slightly underperforming Nixon. The difference: 6% going for the Libertarian

Lt Governor: Kinder currently has a lead; margin might not be enough to hold up when St Louis comes in.

SoS: Republican has a similar lead; again margin might not be enough to hold up when St Louis comes in.

Treasurer: D has the lead and will win.

AG: D has significant lead and will win.

Constutional Amendment #3: This measure's poor performance makes Akin look good. (23.8% support) This would have given Nixon a 4th vote on the 7 man committee that picks the choices the Governor to choose from.

A: Return control of St Louis Police Department to St Louis: Winning by bigger margin than anything else, will pass

B: Tobacco tax hike: Nos are leading by 9 points; difficult for St Louis to make up difference but still possible.

E: Ban health exchanges without legislative approval. Second most popular issue on the ballot. Will pass.

Too little in to consider looking at state races


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO Pattonville School District, Maryland Heights Fire District (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


last line should read state legislative races


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO Pattonville School District, Maryland Heights Fire District (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
looking a bit better for the down ballot Republicans now
still on the iffy side, especally Treasurer


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO Pattonville School District, Maryland Heights Fire District (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
MN-6
Bachmann up by 200. Mostly Anoka County precincts so far

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

Fox reporter: The nation could be decided by a city once run by Jerry Spinner
The Democratic 10 point lead in early polls has been chipped down to 2 points in Ohio.

Also some judges removed by a court for violating state law in Hamilton county (letting non-registered voters vote)

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO Pattonville School District, Maryland Heights Fire District (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


Minnesota update
Amendment 1 at 42.7%
Amendment 2 at 44.8%

Obama up 7 (called)
Klobuchar up 34 (called)

Walz up 10
Kline up 6
Paulsen up 24 (called)
McCollumn up 36 (called)
Ellison up 28 (called)
Bachmann up 1.4
Peterson up 24
Nolan up 10 (note: The Iron Range reorts very late, and all at once. only 4.4% reporting so far from outlying counties )

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


I'm thinking that
if for some reason Romney wins the popular vote; that instead of abolishing the elctorial college, that the New England states should be forcibly consolidated into a single state.

There are several states with bigger land area than all of New England.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO Pattonville School District, Maryland Heights Fire District (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


Search




Advanced Search


(C) RedRacingHorses
Powered by: SoapBlox