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Project Draft -Let do it right in 2014

by: ctgrumpybear

Wed Nov 07, 2012 at 10:33:13 AM EST


2014 midterm maybe 2 year away but you need to push finding the best candidates to keep the senate,take the senate and win more gov roles. So let start looking right now for the best candidates
post your ideas here
ctgrumpybear :: Project Draft -Let do it right in 2014
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Make sure people who run for the office actually want the job
Tommy Thompson and Pete Hoekstra ran like they were talked into running. You can have good candidates on paper, but if they don't have the fire in their belly, the results are no different than Todd Akin.

Also, make sure candidates who run don't snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by their mouths. It's not your views as much as what you say and how you say it. Big mouths are a weakness.

The party does not need to "moderate." The party does not need to be "conservative." The party needs to be competent, have a top flight ground game, not be afraid to fight dirty if necessary, and do what needs to be done with the x's and o's so we don't get out organized and out worked.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


agreed with the above
Missouri doesn't have a senate race in 2014;
Our class 3 one (Roy Blunt) is likely to seek re-election so we don't really have any worries there until 2018.

Maybe Brunner would like to run again in 2018 (if he doesn't run for open Governor in 2016)

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
Ann Wagner will be senator-elect six years from today
Book it.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Yep
and my distinct guess is that Jay Nixon will be Sen-elect four years from today.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Disagree
The race will be nationalized in four years. Unless the Republican retires, I think he wins.

[ Parent ]
You're underestimating MO's lurch to the right
Akin was Akin.

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Very much
MO and MS voted almost the same for President. Missouri is now as Republican as Mississippi.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
good point


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Yep
I feel like two Republican women elected to safe House seats yesterday will begin stockpiling cash for their 2018 Senate runs very soon: Wagner and Susan Brooks. Brooks may run for Coats' seat in 2016 if he retires, but I think its more likely we see Rokita take that one.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Keep an eye out on Sue Ellspermann
Mike Pence's Lt. Governor. I doubt Rokita will leave a safe House seat, but I could see Ellspermann running for either seat if Pence doesn't.

I know some think Pence wants to run for president, but I think he would gladly take a senate seat. I think he would have ran for Bayh's seat if he announced his retirement sooner. And with so many big GOP names coming up, Pence will probably go with the safer route.  

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


[ Parent ]
Gov
She could probably slip into the Gov's office right after Pence in 2018, but I suppose she could run for Senate too that year. Maybe Rokita will want to be Gov since he was SoS before? You could be right tho, he may want to stay in the House. I could see him being primaried from his right statewide.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Pence wants to be President
and he figured he needs executive experience to pull it off.  He won't run for Senate until he has exhausted his chances at the Presidency.  Marlin Stutzman will run for the Senate at the next open seat.  He can in second to Coats in the 2010 primary and has his eye on the seat in 2016.

33, R, IN-09

[ Parent ]
I understand he may want to, but considering how much he was pushed to run for the senate in 2010
And then backed out, it makes me think he's risk adverse. With Christie, Rubio, Walker, Martinez, Jindal, etc... coming down the pipeline, I doubt Pence will pass on an easy senate seat to be in the middle of the pack of an unlikely presidential bid.

I could Stutzman running, but given that he is young and has a safe seat, I could see him building a long house career.  

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


[ Parent ]
He backed out of the Senate race
Because he has no interest in being a Senator. Pence wants to be President, and thought it was easier to run as a Governor than as a Senator. He is probably looking at 2020, when he would be a 61-year-old 2-term governor.

[ Parent ]
Forgot about Stutzman
Yeah, he probably jumps on 2016

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Todd Young
I could see Todd Young running in 2016

[ Parent ]
Well put, Michigander.
nt

35, conservative R, lives in PA-14, grew up in TX

[ Parent ]
I definitely agree
And that's why in WV-Sen, for example, I want McKinley over Capito. He definitely wants it more.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Perfect
I agree with everything you said.

[ Parent ]
2014 Dream Team
AR-Gov: Steve Womack
MA-Gov: Brown/Tisei
AR-Sen: Timothy Griffin
AK-Sen: Sean Parnell
DE-Sen: Ellen Kullman
LA-Sen: Bobby Jindal
VA-Sen: Bob McDonnell
WV-Sen: Shelley Capito
NC-Sen: Patrick McHenry
IA-Sen: Tom Latham
SD-Sen: Mike Rounds
MT-Sen: Rick Hill?
MN-Sen: Erik Paulsen


33, R, IN-09

My picks
MN-Sen: Ramstad
IA-Sen: Branstad
WV-Sen: McKinley

Saint Paul (MN-4)  

[ Parent ]
Ramstad would be the best realistic candidate the Republicans could hope to get
He would start as even money against Franken, whereas the others would start as the dog. Although I think there are two problems with his candidacy. First, I think he stands nearly zero chance of getting through a Republican caucus. He is flat out socially liberal, not moderate. Fiscally he is more conservative, but the most loyal Republican caucus goers would find him unacceptable. And second, he left Washington because he was tired of politics, not because of age or health. I question whether he would be willing to go back.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Who is Kullman?
Wouldn't Wagner be a better get? He's won statewide for over 20 years.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Kullman
DuPont CEO. Wagner has never shown any interest in moving up even when he had freebie opportunities (such as the last 4 Gubernatorial races). No way he gives up Auditor.

If we can't get Kullman (I'm not even sure she's a R, actually) I'm fine with Sher Valenzuela taking a crack at this. She was pretty good at the RNC and would start with at least a modicum of name rec.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
Kullman
I really don't know if DuPont CEO Ellen Kullman is a Republican.  However, her husband Michael Kullman has donated to Pat Roberts in the past, and the DuPont family has a Republican history in Delaware.

33, R, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Incumbents who lost
Of incumbents who lost, or House candidates who lost this time, whom would you like to see run again in 2014?

Nan Hayworth is one incumbent I'd like to see run again. I just find her too intelligent and likable not to want to give her a second chance.

Heh, I'd also like to see Mark Critz run again (but that's simply because I think he'd be so vitriolic and angry at Keith Rothfus for taking his seat that he'd have a few awful moments and crash and burn).

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

Carl DeMaio for CA-52!


Critz running again
Critz should run for PA-Gov just to make whomever primaries Corbett's life easy in the GE. Heh.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
Being form NH
I hope Bass will not run again

32, Male,NH, Conservative Republican , NH-CD02

You got stand for something or you will fall for anything"

Aaron Tippin


[ Parent ]
Being form NH
I hope Bass will not run again

32, Male,NH, Conservative Republican , NH-CD02

You got stand for something or you will fall for anything"

Aaron Tippin


[ Parent ]
Allen West
because I am sick and tired of people of color who stand up for conservative principles being demonized.  I hope he comes back and fights another day.

Republican Medical Doc from New York, NY

[ Parent ]
Run Again
Dan Lungren (CA-7)- Too good of a Rep to give up
Tony Strickland (CA-26)- Who else is going to run in this district?
Allen West (FL-18)- If they can have Grayson, we should have West
Bob Dold (IL-10)-Who else is going to run here?
Richard Tisei (MA-6)- He can win this in an off-year
Nan Hayworth (NY-18)- It really hurt to see her go down. We need more Doc's and Women Professionals in Congress
Maggie Brooks (NY-25)- She can win this in an off-year
Quico Canseco (TX-23)- Unless someone has a better idea?

Brendan Doherty (RI)- Should run for something else...
Bobby Schilling (IL-Sen)- Time for an upgrade
Scott Brown (MA)- Should run for Governor!

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
Schilling won't be enough of a fundraiser
It was great having him in the House, but he would need a ton of cash to make a Senate race competitive.  A pizza guy from Moline won't be able to raise that.  

[ Parent ]
I would add Mia Love
No one will be at the top of the ticket and we need a well known, strong fundraiser. Love struggled like any first time candidate during the beginning of the general election campaign. So, hopefully she could learn and give it another try.  

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
I'd rather her not, but...
She'd have to spend the next six months seriously studying federal policy in order to sound good enough to beat Matheson as an incumbent in the 4th district. Plus, with the convention structure and the UT GOP's deep bench, there are plenty of candidates ready to run next time.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

Carl DeMaio for CA-52!


[ Parent ]
I would definitely nix most of these
Especially Hayworth. I still can't figure out how she lost; W got 54% in this district.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Hayworth for sure
Possibly Paton if we don't have another big name in AZ-01.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Why not Tisei?
I suspect he could prevail in a midterm, though, by 2014, barring any additional scandal, Tierney may have largely escaped his family's woes.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Richard Tisei
I don't know if he wants to run again after losing in two consecutive races. I was on the ground in Peabody, Beverly, and Salem less than a month before the election and it seemed like Tisei was golden. Last night, I got two messages within a minute telling me Dold and Tisei both narrowly lost. Talk about a depressing moment for me.

I'd totally support him if he wanted to run again, though. I think he'd still be able to beat John Tierney in 2014 when Lynn and Salem will probably stay home like they usually do.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

Carl DeMaio for CA-52!


[ Parent ]
Tisei
Tisei is going to be mocked for running that beach ad late and then losing.  It's going be like Leon Lett celebrating his touchdown and getting the ball stripped before crossing the goalline in the Super Bowl.

33, R, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Hmm
Maybe I'm just being gloomy, but I don't really see a path to victory in 2014. I think 2010 and 2012 really set us back. We threw away three seats in 2010 and two more in 2012 with bad candidates. We lose another three seats due to bad campaigns (ND, MT, WI). My thoughts about each race below:

Republican Held

South Carolina: If Lindsey Graham gets primaried, we could see Indiana 2.0. I would think the Republican would be favored, but we can't ignore this race, particularly if the Democrats get a good candidate (not that I know anyone who qualifies as a good candidate in SC).

Georgia: The GOP needs to start worrying about Georgia in presidential years, but I think Saxby will be safe in a midterm.

Idaho: Safe GOP.

Kansas: Safe GOP.

Kentucky: I think this could be another toss up. The Democrats have a strong bench. Ultimately, I think McConnell will be able to bury his opponent in ads.

Maine: If Susan Collins runs again, I think she'll win. I just am worried she'll pull a Snowe. I don't think the GOP can win if Collins retires.

Mississippi: Safe GOP

Nebraska: Safe GOP

Oklahoma: Safe GOP

Tennessee: Safe GOP, apparently Lamar Alexander is running again which is surprising since I thought he said he was going to retire.

Texas: Safe GOP

Wyoming: Safe GOP

Democratic Held

Arkansas: The GOP absolutely MUST win this seat to have any shot at picking up the senate. I may be mixed up, but I think Pryor is known as a good retail politician. I know people want Griffen. He'd be good, but I'm afraid the Democrats would pick up the house seat.

Colorado: I don't see how Mark Udall loses. PPP even had him beating Bill Owens. Hickenlooper is likely to win a big victory as well. I'm pretty bearish on our long term chances in Colorado after this election.

Delaware: Safe Democrat. Remember, exit polls suggested Coons would have beaten Castle and he never broke 50% in the polling, even while he had a big lead.

Illinois: Durbin is safe. The GOP bench got wiped out in redistricting.

Iowa: I don't see how Terry Brandstand runs. Won't he just run for governor? I don't think the GOP can pick up this seat unless it's another 2010.

Louisiana: This is another must-win state for the GOP. I think Landrieu is on track to be the next Blanche Lincoln, but the GOP MUST MUST MUST nominate a good candidate. I heard Kennedy was thinking of running? Jindal won't run.

Massachusetts: Safe Dem.

Michigan: If Levin runs, he'll win. If he doesn't run, I think the GOP could win bu would need a very favorable year. I don't know much about the bench here.

Minnesota: Franken will win.

Montana: I don't think anyone is going to take out Bauchus. He has too much money.

New Hampshire: The GOP has a great shot given that it is a midterm year. I'm just not sure there's an obvious bench. Ovide can't win statewide I don't think.

New Jersey: I can't imagine Lautenberg running at age 90, so that says it's going to be an open seat. Christine won't run, however, meaning the Democrats will hold this seat.

New Mexico: Safe Democrat

North Carolina: A well funded GOP challenger could take this. I would get behind Patrick McHenry given what he did for the map. Renee Ellmers seems to want the seat and did run a great campaign in 2010. I thought she would be more of a firebrand than she has been.

Oregon: Greg Walden, please. Walden could maybe make a toss up out of it, but I think Merkley would probably win in the end.

Rhode Island: Safe Dem

South Dakota: We need Mike Rounds. I don't think he'd lose. Another most-win seat for the GOP.

Virginia: If Warner runs, he'll win. I think he'll run for governor though. Hopefully McDonnell runs for the open seat. I think McDonnell would win but Cucinelli would lose.

West Virginia: If Shelley doesn't run...I swear...but I think she will. The GOP needs this seat.

The path to 51
1. South Dakota
2. Louisiana
3. West Virginia
4. Arkansas

Plus one of:
North Carolina
Virginia
Oregon
New Hampshire

I think the path is definitely narrow and not promising.


The bench
Michigan: If Levin runs, he'll win. If he doesn't run, I think the GOP could win bu would need a very favorable year. I don't know much about the bench here.

I think Carl Lenin will run again and die in office. If he surprises me, the bench is as follows:

GOP:
Tier 1:
Mike Rogers - If he wants it.
Terri Lynn Land - Personable and knows how to win

Tier 2:
Bill Schuette - He tried in 1990, and is now AG.
Candice Miller - Not as strong as she was in 2002

Dems:
Mark Hackel - Macomb County Executive. Would be formidable with blue collar white ethnics.
Gretchen Whitmer - Senate minority leader. Would be formidable with the feminists.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
Levin
He raised like 300 dollars this past quarter from one donor. Color me skeptical that he runs...

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

Carl DeMaio for CA-52!


[ Parent ]
Gary Peters
Isn't it pretty much his? Or is he looking more at Gov?  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
I expect Peters to challenge Snyder
He originally ran for governor in 2002, dropped out for AG (and lost to Mike Cox), and then went for Congress.


MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

[ Parent ]
Peters
Clearly Peters is running for something after the way everyone endorsed him in the primary against Clarke.  He'll probably run for governor since I also think Levin will run again.  I think Whitmer would be a stronger candidate.  

[ Parent ]
question
I thought Candice Miller was strongest GOP person to run.  She did win statewide granted long time ago

[ Parent ]
You forgot Alaska
I think Begich vs. Parnell is Likely R and Begich vs. Generic R is Lean R.

33, R, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Joe Miller
We'd best be making sure he does not run again...

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

Carl DeMaio for CA-52!


[ Parent ]
agreed on both points


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Maybe goad him into AK-AL?
As bad as he is he's better than Young, and that solves any unnecessary Senate drama.

[ Parent ]
Yeah
And we can afford to lose AK-AL. We'd win it back in 2016 with a better candidate.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
and Montana
I know the bench may be thin, but any state Romney wins by 14% has to be targeted.

33, R, IN-09

[ Parent ]
AG Tim Fox
I'm thinking he's our strongest candidate despite being really new.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Wealthy business dude
Is our next best bet.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Is West Virginia likely to be open?
If not, I'd swap it out for NC.

Also, I think OR would have to be open for us to have a shot even in the off cycle election.


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
Shelley
PPP found Shelley beating Rockefeller by 4 points and another pollster found the exact same margin. Granted, she's so risk averse I don't know she'd challenge Rockefeller, but I heard rumors he was going to retire anyway. Who knows...

[ Parent ]
I think McKinley is likelier
And with what we saw from West Virginia this cycle, he'd be favored for an open seat, and would have a shot against Rockefeller.

[ Parent ]
I need more convincing
WV hates Obama they don't hate Dems.  I think its still very tough for Republican to win statewide.  I am not sure what bench is for Dem at what statewide candidate but it certainly is still challenging for us.

[ Parent ]
The path to 51
4 seats + 1 is the path to 50 and a Biden tie-breaker, unless you think Angus King will caucus with the GOP. Otherwise, the GOP needs to pick up 6 seats to take control of the Senate in 2014.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Angus
I could honestly see him switching caucuses from congress to congress just to screw with people and get them to do his bidding, especially if it's a scenario where he holds all the cards like a 50-49-Biden Senate. I still think he has delusions of being the guy that single-handedly forges a new bipartisanship in DC.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Not sure the GOP needs to worry about GA in a post-Obama era
That is, unless you believe the president fundamentally lifted black voter turnout, not only for 2008 and 2012 but for the long run. I just don't see that happening if the 2016 ticket is Martin O'Malley and Amy Klobuchar, for instance.

As for the Senate landscape next time around, I think there's modest potential for the GOP to stage some gains, but it may not prove any easier than this cycle. The good news is, barring primary challenges that result in buffoon candidates, the Republicans are unlikely to bleed seats. The bad news is, while Franken, Landrieu, Begich, Johnson, Rockefeller, Shaheen and Pryor have potential to emerge vulnerable, none of them appear to be in Blanche Lincoln shape.

Frankly, for the time being, I don't think I'd predict any 2014 incumbent will lose, though that's bound to change.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
What?
Landrieu is in Lincoln shape. Beigich only won because of a scandal. If the GOP gets a top recruit in Alaska, we will win. Rockefeller is in bad shape because he voted for Obama care. Shelley is already beating him in polls. Pryor is also in trouble.


[ Parent ]
Other seats
There could be other senate seats open in 2014 with deaths or the senator setting down

32, Male,NH, Conservative Republican , NH-CD02

You got stand for something or you will fall for anything"

Aaron Tippin


[ Parent ]
Carl DeMaio for CA-52
Think he'd take the plunge? I think he could take down Scott Peters. Even if he doesn't live in the district, he could always move into the downtown San Diego portion of it, quietly.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

Carl DeMaio for CA-52!


probably time to think about recruting for Pres in 2016 as well
given how far in advance candidates need to prepare to run.

Is 2016 too soon after W for another Bush to run for President? If not, Jeb may be a good choice.

Either way, Rubio may also be a good choice.

Either of these moves Florida that in addition to being the only uncalled state left this time went into overtime in 2000 into at least lean R territory for that cycle.

I'm also thinking for Vice President that perhaps the Republican governor of Ohio; he should be able to deliver Ohio and maybe help enough to end the PA drought next door.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


i'm not worried about Ohio in the long term
Unlike other states, there's no demographic issues with Ohio. And it still ended up with an R PVI after everything is counted and done.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Rick Snuffer
I know that I've been snarky about our WV-03 chances on here in the past, but Rick Snuffer pulled within 8 points of Nick Rahall last night. Do you guys want to see him again?

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

Carl DeMaio for CA-52!


Please, NO Cassidy and McHenry/Ellmers for senate!!!
We cannot take any more risks with candidates who are unproven. I'll admit, I've pushed for female/ethnic candidates in the past to push for a more diverse caucus with the hopes that it can start shifting voting behavior. However, we have lost way too many senate seats and can no longer afford risking any more.

Only the best of the best from here on out. And in LA and NC, we have to go get Bobby Jindal and someone better than a backbencher from congress for NC.

Same goes with Mike Rounds in SD, Shelley Moore Capito/McKinley in WV, Sean Parnell in AK, Marc Racicot in MT, Tim Griffin in AR, and Erik Paulsen/Ramstad in MN, Bill Owens in CO, Bob McDonnell in VA, John Sununu/Bill Binne in NH, John Crowley in NJ, Gordon Smith in OR, Terry Brandstad in IA, Terry Lynn Land in MI, and hopefully Susan Martinez in NM or at least Dianna Duran.  

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


Who does the GOP have in NC?
I dislike Ellmers and really don't want to see her run although I can see her trying? She rubs me the wrong way; gives off the same bad vibe that Mandel does.  Don't know enough about McHenry.

Who else is there?

Saint Paul (MN-4)  


[ Parent ]
George Holding
Newly elected Congressman from 13rd CD & former US Attorney. He'd work, ya think?

[ Parent ]
Holding
He just put up an unremarkable margin against an equally unremarkable opponent. He needs to run an actual campaign on the ground before I trust him to run for the US Senate.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

Carl DeMaio for CA-52!


[ Parent ]
Unremarkable margin
The GOP intention in the map was having as many Republicans win with unremarkable margins.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Not sure about McHenry
He seems young & he's from a rural conservative part of NC; not a metro area we need to contest  

[ Parent ]
I don't think Ellmers has the chops to win statewide
We have to think outside the House in NC. Thom Tillis is intriguing. It's probably too soon for Forest.

[ Parent ]
Tillis
I'm with you. McHenry and Ellmers aren't strong enough, IMO. He may even be able to partially self fund.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Agree
I think Tillis is the best candidate. He is a charismatic guy and has a business background. I would guess he would be able to self-fund. He stopped working at IBM to campaign for candidates across the state and that's what enabled him to be Speaker. I've also heard State Senate Pro Tem Phil Berger is interested in running. I don't think he should. He's about a decade older than Tillis and doesn't have Tillis' outgoing style. Berger's son, Phil, Jr., has shown interest in running for Congress and I think he would run if Howard Coble retires. I think that would make Berger running for Senate more difficult.

[ Parent ]
Freshmen running right away for a promotion
Sounds like what Rich Berg did, and that didn't work out well for him. I am a firm believer that you need at least 4 years in your previous job before you should be running for another office.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
....
What they should to is look outside of office holders to find better candidates

32, Male,NH, Conservative Republican , NH-CD02

You got stand for something or you will fall for anything"

Aaron Tippin


[ Parent ]
Cassidy
Won a very tight, very contested House race in 2008. He's a doctor (he knows that women's bodies do not shut that whole thing down) and is much more fiscal than social issue focused. LA and AR will be the two Senate races where ObamaCare is the biggest issue, and who better to run than a doctor? Get over the Jindal hopes. Without hope of a WH appointment, he's running for President.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Big deal
Being knowledgable about biology and being right about the issues does not win elections on their own. Cassidy is dull and not charismatic. He may win, but it won't be easy. Jindal needs to realize that he's not likely to win the nomination and needs to become a senator. We needs to seriously have 5-7 seats in the lean GOP takeover column six months before the election.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
That by definition will never happen unless
Democratic incumbents retire.

By nature, (two term or more) incumbents of what ever party are never going to be down a ton unless they have exceedingly low approval ratings like Blanche Lincoln or Claire McCaskill.  


[ Parent ]
...and also incumbents have the resources to heavily influence
their races and change them. That's why predictors don't put incumbent seats at Lean D or Lean R early.  

[ Parent ]
It'd start Arkansas and Lousiana there for now
The State Democratic parties in both states are significantly weaker than the last time those two seats were up, particularly LA.  Pryor's a wildcard in that he didn't even draw a Republican challenger in 2008, so we don't have a good indication if he's closer to Mike Beebe or Blanche Lincoln in terms of political survivability in competitive elections.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
Well if the right candidates step up I expect retirements to follow
Jindal, Rounds, McDonnell (assuming Warner is governor), Capito, and Parnell would probably make that happen.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
NH GOP should look to get more females candidates
NH has been good to female candidates in the last elections maybe we should try get some females to run on the GOP Side

32, Male,NH, Conservative Republican , NH-CD02

You got stand for something or you will fall for anything"

Aaron Tippin


I like Marilinda Garcia
She's. state rep. So I'm not sure if she won or lost this week. Also she doesn't represent that many people. But I've found her to be smart and as a Latina she should have the right profile to take CSP on.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
"As a Latina she sould have the right profile to take CSP on"
What does her being a Latina have to do with her having the "right profile" to take on Carol Shea Porter? New Hampshire's 1st district is 1.6% Hispanic. Not trying to start an identity politics debate, but are you trying to say her being a Latina would give her the right profile to be successful in NH-01? That seems like a rather strange assumption to me.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

Carl DeMaio for CA-52!


[ Parent ]
Poor phrasing - I was tired
I meant she's got the right temperament. Her being Latina is a bonus. But, in terms of candidate skills I think she has potential. Whether or not she is ready for that big of a leap, I have no idea.

She just won her reelection as Democrats took over the legislature, but the GOP did sweep in Salem, so perhaps it wasn't that impressive.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


[ Parent ]
...
I lke her because she get me as someone who is very smart

32, Male,NH, Conservative Republican , NH-CD02

You got stand for something or you will fall for anything"

Aaron Tippin


[ Parent ]
That is my impression as well.


29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
I like Marilinda too
But I'd like to see her run for the State Senate first. NH State House districts are the smallest in the nation, and Rep.'s are practically unknown outside the town they represent.

For 2014, I like Russell Prescott. He's a State Senator who ousted Maggie Hassan in 2010, is from the right part of the district, has a good personal background, and from what I've heard is a very well-respected legislator.


[ Parent ]
Ohio Supreme Court remains 6R-1D
But with 2 different faces. Incumbent Republican justice Robert Cupp lost to Democrat former judge William O'Neill by 4 points. Incumbent Democrat justice Yvette McGee-Brown lost to Republican Butler County Court of Common Pleas Judge Sharon Kennedy by 14 points.  

Columbus Dispatch Poll nailed these races..
Thought it was odd over the weekend to see O'Neill up and Brown down. Especially since O'Neill ran on a "money and judges don't mix" plan. He had run several times before and had high name id, but he was not the Democrat's preferred candidate in this race.

On the other hand, Brown ran a more traditional campaign.

Mainstream Dem.  


[ Parent ]
In NH
I Think Bass and Lamontagne need to retire form running form office again

32, Male,NH, Conservative Republican , NH-CD02

You got stand for something or you will fall for anything"

Aaron Tippin


Who do you think we should run in NH-2?


29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
,,,,
Not off the top of my head right now

32, Male,NH, Conservative Republican , NH-CD02

You got stand for something or you will fall for anything"

Aaron Tippin


[ Parent ]
Chip Cravaack?
He surely will be moving to New Hampshire full time now.  

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
C'mon
We both know well that a state like New Hampshire doesn't take kindly to a newcomer moving in to run like that.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

Carl DeMaio for CA-52!


[ Parent ]
It can happen. Although there are insular states and areas where it doesn't work
I wasn't aware that New Hampshire as being abnormally protective of its own, although I can certainly see it. Might not have a very mobile population.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
collin
He should run against Collin Peterson.

[ Parent ]
collin
He should run against Collin Peterson.

[ Parent ]
A suburbanite running in an insular farm district?
I couldn't see what could go wrong.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
redistricting
I don't get why republicans didn't redistrict better in NH? Bass was goner after his bare win

[ Parent ]
........
never was a big fan of bass

32, Male,NH, Conservative Republican , NH-CD02

You got stand for something or you will fall for anything"

Aaron Tippin


[ Parent ]
They were in a tough spot
They had two incumbents. Do you throw one under the bus or try to leave them both to fend for themselves. It should also be noted that the lines in New Hampshire have hardly changed in many decades. Tradition is important in a lot of states.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
This is correct
You also had the problem of the stronger incumbent being in the weaker district. The legislature could have drawn a pretty solid Republican seat in the southeast, but there was no guarantee Guinta would win even that, and you'd be stabbing Bass in the back.

I think NH-01 will be a top-10 target for the NRCC in 2014. I haven't done the math yet but I believe it swung pretty hard for Romney. NH-02 swung just as hard in the other direction, and will probably only be in play in wave years.


[ Parent ]
One more part
NH isn't easy to Gerrymander.  Its not like they could trade some Solidly Obama areas for Solidly Romney ones--most of the state votes within 10 points of the mean, and the parts that don't are the rural areas along the Vermont border.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
Guinta proves himself to be weak
It's a good thing that we didn't protect him. As long as we get strong candidates we should be fine.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
PA Governor
I fear Corbett is going to get a decent primary challenger and potentially lose.  I kind of would like him to stand aside and watch Altmire, Critz, McCord and Knox beat each other to death over battling Cawley.  Hell Boochvar might run for Governor as she has run for Register of Wills, Commonwealth Court, and Congress so why not Governor?

28, Republican, PA-6

PPP has him trailing generic D by 10
He is in a worse position than Rick Scott.

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Generic D
The problem with Generic D polling in Pennsylvania is that a quarter of Ds are never going to get their candidate.  

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Corbett
What has he done to warrant a decent primary challenger? I thought, out of the Republican governors elected in 2010, Corbett seemed to be one of the most sensible. From, what I've heard, he hasn't been as polarizing as Walker, Scott, or Kasich and I think Snyder has been a lot more moderate than him and that Snyder would be more likely to face a decent primary challenger than would Corbett. Since Pennsylvania in recent history has reelected incumbents, I thought Corbett would basically cruise to reelection. I do remember that Corbett came under scrutiny for people criticizing how he handled the Sandusky matter when he was AG.

[ Parent ]
From outside PA, Sandusky?
Catching grief both ways: sense he didn't prosecute Sandusky himself earlier was to avoid interfering with Gov campaign; and Penn State faithful thinking he piled on against the school in general for political gain; is there more?  

[ Parent ]
I'm working on a diary...
Which will list my take on every potentially competitive senatorial and gubernatorial election. Based on that, here are a few suggestions.
SD-Sen: Rounds. This one's tilt R at worst.
WV-Sen: Rockefeller's about the furthest left of any WV statewide politician, so the best thing for Republicans would be for him not to retire. Capito or McKinley would be good.
AK-Sen: Parnell or Treadwell. Are there other elected statewide office-holders?
LA-Sen: Cassidy is going to be the John Boozeman of 2014, IMO. He's fine for this seat.
AR-Sen: It's got to be Tim Griffin. I know a lot of people love Tom Cotton--and I'm one of them--but it's way too soon, and he's young enough that he can wait.
North Carolina: Thom Tillis, for reasons stated above..
Virginia: Bob McDonnell. I think he'd start off worse than even against Warner, but Warner's really been a down-the-line, conventional Democrat, while McDonnell has a pragmatic reputation. If we're talking about a 2010-type environment here, McDonnell should have a shot. Besides, Warner might want to run for a different office in 2016, so Republicans will want to George Allen him if possible.
Oregon: PPP had Merkley in the mid forties. Walden won't run, so we're looking at someone like former co-speaker Bruce Hanna or state senator Jason Atkinson, both of whom were within low single digits of Merkley in polling. This is a race that really shouldn't be competitive at all, but might be anyway.
Minnesota: If it looks like we can win, Pawlenty, Coleman or Paulson. If it's a lost cause, let's just go with Bachmann and get someone who can hold down her house seat in there to replace her.
New Jersey: Lautenberg's going to retire, and Christie needs to show he can actually build the party, not just build up himself, so this should be a prime target for him. Runyan or Lance would be possible, but Kim Guadagno or Tom Kean junior would probably be our best bets.
I have no idea about Montana or New Hampshire.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.

Minnesota
If Bachmann runs against Franken, it would certainly be a fireworks-worthy show. She doesn't stand a chance as she can barely win the most Republican district in the state. It'd sure be fun to watch the yell at each other though.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Oh, totally agree.
It's a wait and see thing. If Franken's even slightly vulnerable in late 2013 and early 2014, I say Republicans run someone credible. If it's painfully obvious he's going to win, we could at least get Bachmann out of her house seat painlessly. Unlike some on here, I don't see her just walking away and becoming a talking head.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.

[ Parent ]
I disagree on these:
LA - Cassidy could be Boozman, but he could also be Rehberg and the last thing we need here is a 50-50 contest in LA. We need to PUSH for Jindal. If he has presidential aspirations, than beat Landrieu first and then run for president. Hell, I'll vote for him if he does, even though I prefer Rubio/Christie/Walker/Martinez/Bush over him.

NC - We cannot go with a state legislator against Hagan or a member of congress. I'm hoping that a wealthy businessperson can step up here, since our statewide bench is pretty weak.

OR - Only Gordon Smith can win this back for us. Anyone else will be too much of an uphill climb.

MN - I would love to see Paulsen give it a go, as his temperment would be the perfect contrast to Franken's.

NJ - This state is becoming so blue that only a wealthy, feel good story can compete here, and I'm hoping John Crowley finally gives it a go.

In MT and NH, although retreads like Racicot and Sununu may give us a shot, I think we may need fresh blood in both races. Hopefully, we can get a couple of wealthy, self funders in each race that could turn things around for us.

Also, I would add that we need either Bill Owens or Jane Norton in CO, Tom Wagner in DE, Terry Branstad or Kim Reynolds in IA, Terri Lynn Land in MI, and the biggest get of the cycle...Susana Martinez in NM.  

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


[ Parent ]
Phil Simms for NJ
See: Bill Bradley  

[ Parent ]
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